Maverick 23:31 PM - Feb 27 2022

The Week Ahead: Feb 28, 2022

The Week Ahead: Feb 28, 2022

A view of the market for the week ahead.  Daily updates are posted each day after the close.

Economic Calendar: marketwatch.com/economy-politi...
  • Wednesday is when the market-moving data starts. ADP report at 0815; two Fed presidents premarket, then JPow testifies at 1000 in front of House.
  • Thursday has JPow again, but in front of the Senate, at 1000.
  • Friday has BLS data at 0830 (it will be interesting to see how it ties up with Wednesday's ADP data - last time, they weren't even close)
  • While there are many reporting, I don't think there will be much market-moving news here.
  • Target, Best Buy, and Costco should all hit/exceed expectations on the back of retail enthusiasm

Trading thoughts
  • Monday/Tuesday: The dominating topic will be Ukraine/Russia.  It's lasting longer than I expected, for sure - which is causing more sanctions to pile on, Putin to get angry, and the world to rally behind Ukraine.  I've been truly inspired by the Ukrainian people this weekend, including their President Zelenskyy.  A real leader has emerged.
  • The situation is all but certain to escalate - but I am not going to speculate on what that will entail.  There's just too many unknowns and scenarios possible.
  • Unless the meeting on Monday between Ukraine and Russia resolves or alleviates (highly unlikely), the SPY is set to open -2% or more.  There's also a Biden call happening at 1115 to talk with NATO.
  • I think Monday/Tuesday are down, then grinding sideways.  Wednesday-Friday, the focus will shift back to US economic data a bit more.
  • I doubt I'll be doing much on Monday/Tuesday - I've missed the move downward (didn't want to hold anything over weekend), but I'll be watching the technicals for a moment to get in for a bounce.  As long as nuclear war doesn't happen, we'll get another fierce bear market rally like we had on Thursday & Friday.  It may not be this week, however.
  • It's way too difficult to call this market any more than a few hours out right now, due to all the events that can easily move the market, but just for the hell of it - I'll call 415 on the SPY for Friday.
  • Like I keep saying - be careful out there, on either side.

SPY Daily, 30m

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Maverick's Moves

Created By: Maverick
Created: Feb 8, 2021
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I trade SPY, QQQ, and specific story sectors using technical analysis and gut rubs.

I'll post my thoughts and market moves here.

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