Market Day Ahead - July 14, 2022 - SPY - 373/390 still; processing CPI data; inching further into earnings season.
What Happened Today (Wednesday)
- SPY traded 374.66 - 382. Ended the day @ 378.83 which was only -2.00 / -0.53%
- On the CPI data release at 0830, the SPY dropped over 10 points in a single candle from 386 to ~373
- That was awesome.
- It was a hot headline and hot core. Nothing else to say there.
- It looked like a hard algo sell off on the news, then we rallied impressively to 382. We spent most of the day chop boxing around 380 (not a surprise).
- It’s quite impressive that with that reading, it basically held 380
- While my scenarios didn’t play out just right, I did manage to mix them together - bought calls shortly after the open, didn’t hold them long at all; then puts in the afternoon. Held nothing overnight. Needed to reset my bearings.
- Fed Bostic rattled the market around 2pm with his note that 100bps isn’t out of the question. Fully expected these whispers to start (look back on last few updates here)
- That was about it. All the fun was 0830 - 11am.
Looking Ahead (Thursday)
- Reports: Jobless Claims @ 0830; Fed Waller @ 11am
- Earnings: JPM & MS (Financials) premarket
- I don’t think we’re going to see much market-moving news on Thursday
- We’re going to see the market participants digesting the CPI and deciding what to do with that hot reading
- The Fed is absolutely going to do 0.75% and I lean just a little more to 1%, but I still don’t see it happening
- By the next FOMC (after July), we may actually see an impact of the rate hikes and that will set the market up for a rally - but that’s months away. I remain bearish overall for now, but respecting the levels.
- Futures are interesting at the moment. SPY was 376 at the 8pm close. Right when that closed, it turned and now we’re almost at 379. What was that?
- SPY levels: 373 (major) > 375 > 380 (major) > 385 > 390 (major) > 393
- Chart - Weekly: Bearish (Long-term)
- Chart - Daily: Confusing
- Chart - 4h: Bearish
- Chart - 1h: Bearish - it hit oversold today, bounced, and it’s pointed down again
- Chart - 30m: Same as 1h
SPY Trading Plans (Thursday)
- Scenario 1: If we open below 377, I’ll look to buy puts down to 375/373. At 373, I’d buy calls.
- Scenario 2: If we open above 380, I’ll look to buy calls to 385.
- I’m not feeling either scenario right now, but Scenario 1 is my first choice.
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Comments
Maverick - 1 year ago
July 14 - Recap: Scenario 1 played out-ish - calls at 373 would have worked great - "If we open below 377, I’ll look to buy puts down to 375/373. At 373, I’d buy calls."
I wasn't at my desk for a lot of the action, so I just caught a scalp at end of day.
P&L: +$240
I wasn't at my desk for a lot of the action, so I just caught a scalp at end of day.
P&L: +$240
Maverick's Moves
| Created By: | Maverick |
| Created: | Feb 8, 2021 |
| Total Followers: | 13 |
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I trade SPY, QQQ, and specific story sectors using technical analysis and gut rubs.
I'll post my thoughts and market moves here.
Twitter: twitter.com/stonks_maverick
Substack: mavericksmoves.substack.com
I'll post my thoughts and market moves here.
Twitter: twitter.com/stonks_maverick
Substack: mavericksmoves.substack.com