Market Day Ahead - August 12, 2022 - SPY - 416/425 range; UK & FR data premarket; UMich 10am; pullback coming.
SPY | SPX Trading Plans (Friday)
- Scenario 1: We open below 419, puts to 416.
- Scenario 2: If we open above 421 on the back of UK/FR data, we’ll probably keep pushing up until 10am, max 423, then we’re pulling back to 420 (at least).
- I don’t feel strongly about either, but I lean Scenario 2.
- We’ll see at the open which way it wants to go.
Review & Analysis…..
What Happened Today (Thursday)
- SPY traded between 419 and 425 today
- 🏆 “Scenario 1: We open above 421, calls to 425 (max) if you’re feeling frisky.”
- That scenario played out almost to the penny. I wasn’t able to trade it, but damn…still feels good.
- We spent the entire day consolidating - mostly in the green - then gave it all up in the back half o the day to close exactly flat. That’s a rare sight!
- The rally was on the back of yesterday’s CPI + today’s PPI. Both were cool and a nod to peak inflation.
- I didn’t take note of anything else today.
Technicals (Latest)
- SPY levels: 405, 416, 420, 425
- Chart - Weekly: Bullish - no change here - still room to roar up. It warned us for weeks.
- Chart - Daily: Neutral/Bearish - this one is reaching the top of the RSI, so a pullback is coming - Friday?
- Chart - 4h: Bearish - we’ve spent the entire week in overbought territory. It’s going to pay for it soon.
- Chart - 1h: Neutral - consolidation. Pullback may have started.
Looking Ahead (Friday)
- We’ve got UK GDP, France CPI in premarket - though I don’t expect these to matter much. UMich Sentiment at 10am does matter. These are likely catalysts for continued move up, but careful of a sell the news/end of week.
- It’s a hard call for Friday. We’ll have light volume (bullish), overbought technicals (bearish), some international inflation data (probably bullish), overall sentiment is bullish.
- I think the very short-term - as in Friday - favors the bears by end of day. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a chart similar to Thursday, but actually end red.
- As this is quite unclear/choppy, don’t take any big positions.
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Maverick's Moves
| Created By: | Maverick |
| Created: | Feb 8, 2021 |
| Total Followers: | 13 |
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I trade SPY, QQQ, and specific story sectors using technical analysis and gut rubs.
I'll post my thoughts and market moves here.
Twitter: twitter.com/stonks_maverick
Substack: mavericksmoves.substack.com
I'll post my thoughts and market moves here.
Twitter: twitter.com/stonks_maverick
Substack: mavericksmoves.substack.com