• Monday: Nothing, really.  Empire manufacturing at 0830?
• Tuesday:  Nothing.
• Wednesday: UK CPI @ 2am; Retail Sales @ 0830; FOMC MINUTES at 2pm ⚠️
• Thursday: I don’t see much right now.
• Friday: Nothing.

• SPY closed last week at 427 - a full seven points higher than I thought possible. 🤯
• Despite that, I traded reasonably well last week, my scenarios hit every day I think.  I got whacked on Friday (cost me entire week’s gains) when I went against my planned scenario and fought the tape intraday.
• That was dumb and a good reminder to trade the plan - or not at all.  The scenario I had for Friday played out for a profit, it’s only when I went rogue I got rocked.  
• Unfortunately, I piled more on Friday, so let’s hope (I hate using that word in the market - kiss of death) that we get a solid dip on Monday on the back of those way overbought technicals - I’ll exit and reassess.
• In last week’s “week ahead”, I suggested two scenarios were possible on the chart.  It looks pretty clear it’s this one “October 26, 2021 - went from 455 to 470 by November 8, 2021 before cooling off” and I think the narrative out there supports it - as much as I don’t like it.
• If that’s correct, then we’re going to work these overbought technicals out by consolidation, not a pullback - at least initially.  I can see another 7-10 trading days of consolidation up here pretty easily, but if it follows Nov 2021 chart, we’ll get a 20 point pullback on the SPY to fully sort the chart out after that 10 day period.
• The week is pretty limited on market moving  news.  The only landmine I see is Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.  It’s likely that JPow saying “neutral” is what provided rocket fuel to this rally.  If the minutes reveal that’s not the case and he got ahead of himself or words twisted - it’ll pullback on Wednesday pretty hard.  Unlikely.
• General market thoughts…..
• I’m still a bear overall.  I think we see new lows EOY or 1Q2023
• The sentiment has gone very bullish - as the chart shows - on the back of CPI and “peak inflation” narrative
• I do not think this changes the position of the Fed for September 16.  In fact, it likely emboldens them to keep it at 0.75 again - and get that balance sheet ramped up for more selling (it’s very slow pace currently)
• Fed aside, you can’t ignore that MSFT, GOOGL, AAPL all came out with strong guidance.  I think this + JPow neutral comment is primary drivers of this rally.
• Are the tech majors really going to power through this with almost no scars?  AAPL is just shy of its all time high.  MSFT isn’t too far itself.  Incredible…
• Check out this long-term monthly chart of SPY below.  It screams pullback to the line - but when? Why?
• The post-covid run we know what happened - QE.  That’s over with now - we assume - so what exactly is pushing this up so hard from 363?
• It’s dangerous on both sides right now.  The chart is begging to be shorted, but it just keeps powering up.
• The VIX is low at just under 20 right now - though it can go even lower.  Use this as an opportunity to go shopping for long term options, if you are confident in a direction in 6-12 months
• DXY is likely to consolidate here with no news on horizon, so nothing exciting here.
• Oil is key.  If it runs again, inflation isn’t peaking.  I think this is what will cause the pullback.
• In summary, I’m still bearish - but I’m mindful of just how strong the SPY can rage when the bulls are in charge of the ship.  They are currently sitting in the Captain’s chair sipping the finest rum and enjoying the ride.

• SPY levels:  405, 416, 420, 429.50, 437
• Chart - Weekly: Bullish - this one suggests the Hot Girl Summer Rally is well in progress and still has more to go. Grr..
• Chart - Daily: Bearish - overbought.  Pullback or consolidation incoming.
• Chart - 4h: Bearish - painfully overbought. Pullback or consolidation incoming.
• Chart - 1h: Neutral - consolidation with bias to the upside

• Scenario 1: If we open below 425, puts to 423/422.
• Scenario 2: If we open above 428, calls to 430 (max), then stand back - the technicals will be scorching.
• I think we’re in a right range on Monday.  There’s no news, so it’s going to be chop/consolidation.  Wednesday is the day we ride.
• I lean towards Scenario 1 with maybe a small pop at the open, then a few point pullback.  Nothing major.