• Scenario 1: We open above 430 on good WMT/HD news, I’ll do nothing - I can’t stomach calls up here - yet.  
• Scenario 2: If we open above 430 on bad/mixed WMT/HD news, I’ll add another SPX put - I like pain.
• Scenario 3: If we open below 425 on bad/mixed WMT/HD news & housing data, I’ll be looking to exit my SPX puts around 423-425.

• SPY traded between 425 and 429
• Neither scenario played out - which was fine.  I was conflicted as hell in my Week Ahead, so sidelines was a good seat.
• I did fumble the ball on my puts.  I was given a gift at the open of 425 and didn’t pull the trigger (I was at a tidy profit on the ones I held over weekend).  I was looking for 424 and little did I know that the open would be the low of the day.  So now I’m still holding them at 428. 🤡 stonks.chat/user-trades/978
• The only news of significance I saw was “US: NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index slumps to -31.3 vs. 8.5 expected” — this is what caused the dip in premarket - but this was shrugged off within 5 minutes of the open.  Impressive, but maybe not smart - that print wasn’t insignificant.
• We otherwise just had a low volume bull Monday, similar to Friday

• SPY levels:  405, 416, 420, 429.50, 437
• Chart - Weekly: Bullish - this one suggests the Hot Girl Summer Rally still has more to go. (Same as Sunday)
• Chart - Daily: Bearish - overbought.  Pullback or consolidation incoming. (Same)
• Chart - 4h: Bearish - painfully overbought. Pullback or consolidation incoming. (Same, even more painful to look at.)
• Chart - 1h: Neutral - the chart is overbought, but it’s still pushing. 🤷‍♀️

• WMT & HD report in premarket - this will set the tone for retail (TGT + Retail Sales numbers are Wednesday).
• I’m awful at earnings, but my guess? WMT paints a cautiously optimistic picture having already warned (front loaded bad news) and peak inflation on the mind.  HD - guess? meet expectations and warn it’s cooling (a lot of their business is in “not necessary”)
• It’s another day for the bulls if they can keep running.  If WMT/HD don’t whiff, there is room to keep going on the weekly chart.
• If we get a dip for any reason to 424 or lower, I’ll probably exit my puts and try to figure out what’s really going on out there (easier when you don’t have a position bias - which is why I like to exit every day) 🧘
• This is either one epic bull trap + bear market rally (60 points!), or the music really has changed.
• Looking at the weekly again, it sure looks like it has tons of gas left in it - 450/460.  It just looks like every other 6 month bull run we’ve ever had.  I still think this is most likely from my Week Ahead “If that’s correct, then we’re going to work these overbought technicals out by consolidation, not a pullback - at least initially.  I can see another 7-10 trading days of consolidation up here pretty easily, but if it follows Nov 2021 chart, we’ll get a 20 point pullback on the SPY to fully sort the chart out after that 10 day period.” — so late next week…