• Tuesday:  CPI (August) @ 0830 ⚠️- this is market event of the week
• Wednesday: PPI @ 0830
• Thursday: Retail sales @ 0830; Jobless claims @ 0830; NY Manufacturing Index @ 0830
• Friday: Nothing.

• We’ve got a trend setting week upon us.  Tuesday we’ve got CPI data, which is event of the week/rest of month (more important than FOMC)
• CPI Headline will almost certainly cool (continuing ‘peak inflation’ narrative), however Core CPI is unlikely to come down and will likely push higher.
• That makes it a mixed report, but Core CPI is what Fed is looking at.  It will just solidify the 75bps next week at FOMC.
• I think even if we saw cool/cool, we’d be looking at 75bps - because employment isn’t tame yet.  The man was clear he needs several months of positive reports to change his position.
• Ukraine/Russia situation had a positive development (for Ukraine) with them gaining back some ground and showing signs of the war pushing back the other way
• I am long-term bearish, but I do think we’re going to see 420 before we see below 400 again — if the CPI report data comes in as I expect it to.
• REMINDER: FOMC is September 21.

• SPY levels (no change from last week):  390, 396, 400, 405, 410, 416, 420
• Chart - Weekly: Bullish (this is the one I had backwards and cost me a lot) - it’s trending UP now.
• Chart - Daily: Bullish - we got the bounce we expected from last Sunday’s report.  There’s more to go.
• Chart - 4h: Bullish - same as Daily - plenty more to go on the upside

• I am very bullish for this week - but there’s no reason to gamble against the CPI on Tuesday.  I’ll be setting up a strangle.
• I think we’ll touch 410 at some point on Monday, so if there’s 2-3 points of upside (ie 417-418), I’ll play some quickie calls.
• I’ve got this damn puts position I entered way too early, but it’s out in November, so I’ll just keep watching it bleed for now.
• The real move for Monday is setting up a strangle ahead of Tuesday premarket CPI data.  I’ll do that right at the close, regardless of price using a 1DTE pair.