• SPY traded 403 down to 392.  It ended down 18 points against yesterday's close.
• Today was epic - and a trend reversal.  CPI came in warm/hot - not cool/cool or cool/mixed like pretty much everybody was thinking.
• Prior to the data being released, I was biased to the bullish side for a positive CPI report (you can see that in my report last night), but I knew better than to position myself that way.  I learned that very expensive lesson during JPow’s last talk from JHole.  The only thing I knew for sure was the market was going to move - I was just looking for 5+ points in either direction.  
• Fortunately - this time - I didn’t tinker with it and kept it even puts/calls.  That worked out well today and cemented how to use that setup going forward.
• My take on today: The price action was so violent, not because the report was so bad, but because expectations were so high - and wrong.  Up until 8:30am, we were sitting on a 23 point (!!!) run into this report that fueled by hopium (not data).  
• On a positive report, I am not convinced my strangle would have worked out - it could have just been flat due to so much being priced in.  So, it really was best scenario for my particular setup.
• Looking at the actual data, you can see that what the Fed is doing is working (maybe a bit slowly).  We’re doing better than other countries, for sure - which is a reason the DXY is so damn strong.  This doesn't change my bearish stance for reasons I'll explain in a later special post.
• It was a good day to be a bear, but there’s a lot to think about in the upcoming days/weeks with this new data and sentiment shift.

• SPY levels:  380, 390, 396, 400, 405
• Chart - Weekly: Bearish - while the ripster clouds are still bullish, I think they’ll turn with today’s data after a few more days (lagging).  This would point towards us visiting 360 again.
• Chart - Daily: Bearish - Fundamental data event always trumps technicals.  Reversal and plenty of room to go down.
• Chart - 4h: Bearish -  same as Daily.

• Samosa spotted it before I did, but this data wipes out the entire reason for the run from 390.  On that basis, we should see 390 (or lower) again prior to FOMC next week.  I think he’s right.
• I’ll be looking for a dead cat bounce on Wed/Thu to re-enter some 2-3 week out puts.  I’ll exit these prior to JPow.  Then I’ll play the waves after he speaks.  I don’t currently expect this FOMC to be as big of a market mover as usual.  We know what he’s going to do.  Only thing they’ll be looking for is any signal when the hikes will end - unlikely now to be this year.
• There is currently no reason to hold calls.  Trade the levels, fine, but I wouldn’t hold them.  I’ll be looking for fade the rip opportunties as we trend down.
• I’ve got a few theories running through my head of how things play out over the next week; next few months; and 6 months.  I need to write them down first, then I’ll share.

• I’m looking for a bounce to fade.  I’d like to see 395-400 for re-entry of puts for 2 weeks out with intent to ride it to 390 or below.
• I’m not in a rush and will not do anything on Wednesday if neither of those are tested.