• Monday: Nothing.
• Tuesday: Nothing.
• Wednesday: FOMC rate hike @ 2pm; followed by JPow at 2:30pm ⚠️ - Event of the week
• Thursday: Jobless claims @ 830am, but won’t matter following Wednesday
• Friday: S&P PMI data all day from various countries with US @ 9:45am; JPow speaks at 2pm, but it looks like a non-event.

• We’ve arrived.  FOMC is on Wednesday at 2pm.  Cue the bongos.
• I think this is Peak JPow Fear.  He’s only going to go down from whatever he does on Wednesday.
• There’s a decent chance of a 100bps hike.  People act like it’s never happened before.  It’s happened both on the increase and decrease between modern and Volker (400bps in a month..): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm & https://www.thebalancemoney.com/fed-funds-rate-history-highs-lows-3306135#toc-fed-chair-paul-volcker-august-1979-august-1987 
• You can’t use the excuse of ‘those were exceptional times’ - because that’s exactly what we have here.  It’s going to get real exceptional if they don’t tame the inflation monster.  America must continue to lead the charge.
• Now, based on what I know about current FOMC members and JPow, do I think they’ll hit it with 100bps? No.
• I think we’re looking at 75bps.  It’s what the market expects and what I think JPow has projected out.  That makes sense based on current data.  
• This stuff is not immediate.  We’re seeing results in certain places.  Layoffs are starting, companies are warning, real estate boom is over, the pain has begun.
• I think we’re more likely to see 0.75 on Wednesday, then MAYBE another 0.75 if we haven’t seen results by next one (November 2) - but you’ve got another CPI + jobs data before then.
• If we come in at 75bps, we’re likely to see a positive market reaction, especially after his speech.  It’ll show that Fed will do what’s necessary, he’ll mention some positive data has started trickling in (for his mandate at least), and show he’s not going any higher than 75bps going forward - only stepping it down.  He’ll spin some magic like there’s going to be no recession.
• If we come in at 100bps, then we’re going to crater further and he’s going to be really tough in his speech.  It will confirm a recession for everybody (which is coming anyways). I think this is unlikely scenario, but possible.
• I see another JPow speech on our calendar for 2pm on Friday - I don’t think it’s market moving - https://www.federalreserve.gov/conferences/fed-listens-transitioning-to-the-post-pandemic-economy.htm 
• I wish there was more going on this week, but FOMC is it.  
• Of note, that FedEx warning we had was not their official earnings.  That was a ‘preliminary warning’ - which we’re going to see more of.  I think it’s a way to communicate to JPow to ‘chill out’, frankly.  They did this last week and their earnings date is Thursday - after FOMC.
• Week of September 26: Not much on the calendar, except oil data and PCE on Friday.

• SPY levels:  373, 380, 390, 396, 400, 405, 410
• Chart - Weekly: Bearish - this turned back the other way on CPI.  It’s curling down now, so it should continue generally down on a weekly interval for a while.
• Chart - Daily: Bearish - still plenty of room to go down. 380 or lower.
• Chart - 4h: Bullish - this one turned a little bullish on Friday - I don’t trust it though. I think it turns back down before Wednesday.

• I held one SPX 10/5 3860p over weekend for the hell of it.  I like it though.  I’m looking for a quick pop to 390 on Monday - then slow fade end of day, Tuesday, Wednesday morning.
• I’ll add a couple more SPXp at 390/396 OR 380 (confirmation) and then exit prior to JPow on Wednesday - I may let it ride up until that moment for max VIX.  I’m staying out of the man’s way with any one-sided trades, though.  Lessons learned there…
• I might do a strangle on Wednesday around lunch, but it would be small by comparison to the CPI one.  I don’t feel strongly about a violent move in either direction right now.  As noted above, I think the bulls have a good chance here to get a ‘whew, only 75bps’ rally post-JPow.  If we trend down until this event, the technicals will be prime for it, too.
• BOE and Swiss Bank are releasing their rate hikes on Thursday - which should push the DXY down and the SPY up - it’s set up real nice for a run…