SPACageddon 2.0?
If you've been playing SPACs, then you know the pain the last two weeks have been.
I survived SPACageddeon 1.0 back in October 2020. That said, I didn't remember it well, since it was so damn painful.
So tonight, did some quick research to see if we were in SPACageddon 2.0 right now - which was overdue by amount a month, in my opinion. The sector is just too crowded and I am seeing absolutely stupid deals (pre revenue, pre product) and ridiculous valuations.
The power has actually shifted over to the companies instead of the SPACs. There are many, many more SPACs than a year ago and way less good deals by the day.
Going forward, you'll need to be very selective in what you buy. Not everything will pop. It needs to be sexy and at a good valuation.
So, let's get into where I think we are on the timeline
Two samples from SPACageddon 1.0 (both of which I was in at various times):
SHLL/HYLN - October 1 to November 2, 2020 - topped out at 55 on September 29, cliff dived to 18.50 on November 2.
DPHC/RIDE - October 1 to November 2, 2020 - topped out at 31, cliff dived to 13 on November 2, then almost fully bounced back to ATH by November 23.
...fast forward to February 2021
CCIV hits 58 on Feb 18, then started its nose dive (already down 60% as of today)
I think CCIV (that valuation was bubblelicious) started SPACageddon 2.0. Bond yields rising aren't helping, either -- risk off can be quick and severe.
If history repeats itself (unlikely, but what else do we have to use?), then I think we're looking at late March before we see the good stuff back to its previous highs.
This could actually play out well - if you can sustain the pain. We still do not have merger vote dates from $GIK , $NGA , or $TPGY (all quality and good valuations). The closer these happen to late March/early April, the better we should be.
Wild card: Bond yields continuing to cause problems -- this is a big, big liquidity drain that was not part of SPACageddon 1.0.
I survived SPACageddeon 1.0 back in October 2020. That said, I didn't remember it well, since it was so damn painful.
So tonight, did some quick research to see if we were in SPACageddon 2.0 right now - which was overdue by amount a month, in my opinion. The sector is just too crowded and I am seeing absolutely stupid deals (pre revenue, pre product) and ridiculous valuations.
The power has actually shifted over to the companies instead of the SPACs. There are many, many more SPACs than a year ago and way less good deals by the day.
Going forward, you'll need to be very selective in what you buy. Not everything will pop. It needs to be sexy and at a good valuation.
So, let's get into where I think we are on the timeline
Two samples from SPACageddon 1.0 (both of which I was in at various times):
SHLL/HYLN - October 1 to November 2, 2020 - topped out at 55 on September 29, cliff dived to 18.50 on November 2.
DPHC/RIDE - October 1 to November 2, 2020 - topped out at 31, cliff dived to 13 on November 2, then almost fully bounced back to ATH by November 23.
...fast forward to February 2021
CCIV hits 58 on Feb 18, then started its nose dive (already down 60% as of today)
I think CCIV (that valuation was bubblelicious) started SPACageddon 2.0. Bond yields rising aren't helping, either -- risk off can be quick and severe.
If history repeats itself (unlikely, but what else do we have to use?), then I think we're looking at late March before we see the good stuff back to its previous highs.
This could actually play out well - if you can sustain the pain. We still do not have merger vote dates from $GIK , $NGA , or $TPGY (all quality and good valuations). The closer these happen to late March/early April, the better we should be.
Wild card: Bond yields continuing to cause problems -- this is a big, big liquidity drain that was not part of SPACageddon 1.0.
Maverick - 3 years ago
$NGA - I will continue sitting on this. Looking good at 5.60 from 3.87. Will add any dips below 5.00.
$RMG - merger vote on Monday (28th). I'm pretty irritated with myself for selling on Thursday at 33.00. I'll play the warrants. I think the equity could see 40+ this week.
$GIK - most interesting one from my DD this weekend. I'll definitely add this, but as noted, there's a lot of time on the clock here, will flutter around for a while.
$FIII - is a definite add, but maybe next month.
$SOAC - the warrant volume is screaming at me again, but don't think we're going to see a DA until January.
I've got research still to do on $TPGY (the one that got away..), CIIC, NBAC, STPK, FUSE, AACQ, AJAX.
$RMG - merger vote on Monday (28th). I'm pretty irritated with myself for selling on Thursday at 33.00. I'll play the warrants. I think the equity could see 40+ this week.
$GIK - most interesting one from my DD this weekend. I'll definitely add this, but as noted, there's a lot of time on the clock here, will flutter around for a while.
$FIII - is a definite add, but maybe next month.
$SOAC - the warrant volume is screaming at me again, but don't think we're going to see a DA until January.
I've got research still to do on $TPGY (the one that got away..), CIIC, NBAC, STPK, FUSE, AACQ, AJAX.
Trading week of December 21, 2020
I've got no major updates from my previously posted watchlist - https://stonks.chat/group/1/posts/72
$PIC has its merger vote on Monday.
$NGA continues to be my largest position, I'll be sitting on it for a while though (Feb/March)
$RMG final week of trading before merger vote on December 28.
AJAX came up in research this weekend.
$TPGY - hoping this one comes off a bit. It went crazy on merger announcement of EVBOX. Months before merger though, so there's time for it to cool off.
$SOAC - are you ever going to announce something?
Reminder: US markets are closed half day on Thursday (at 1p EST) and fully closed on Friday.
$PIC has its merger vote on Monday.
$NGA continues to be my largest position, I'll be sitting on it for a while though (Feb/March)
$RMG final week of trading before merger vote on December 28.
AJAX came up in research this weekend.
$TPGY - hoping this one comes off a bit. It went crazy on merger announcement of EVBOX. Months before merger though, so there's time for it to cool off.
$SOAC - are you ever going to announce something?
Reminder: US markets are closed half day on Thursday (at 1p EST) and fully closed on Friday.
TPG Pace Beneficial Finance Corp - TPGY
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