Maverick 00:54 AM - Mar 22 2022

Market Update: March 22, 2022

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Followup to Week Ahead: March 20, 2022

What Happened Today (Monday)
  • Monday-Friday: We've got Fed Presidents speaking all over the place.  Just look at calendar and expect one of them to go off script and the news to pick it up with a fun headline.  JPow on Monday and Wednesday.
  • That happened!  JPow came in with quite a hawkish tone at his 12pm conference today - cnbc.com/2022/03/21/powell-say... 
  • I wasn't expecting that kind of tone from him, but as I said...somebody was going to go off script this week - and it's only Monday.  He took a tougher line on inflation than his FOMC speech, mentioned 0.50% hikes as possible (needed, in my opinion), and the market was caught off guard.
  • The QQQ went from 351 to 346 in minutes - tech will get punished the most by rate hikes.  SPY went 446 to 440.
  • In no surprise to anybody, the QQQ/SPY recovered almost all of it by end of day. Bulls are running right now...
  • Trade: Speaking of which, my overnight hold on $QQQ puts went poorly.  I sold the initial pop in the morning (high of day) just before it jumped off a cliff.  Ah well.  Puts are always my toughest plays.  I'm a calls guy at heart.  Which makes it tough with my bearish stance at the moment!
  • Trade: I cleaned up on $AMD calls intraday, though.  It's a powder keg.  I couldn't resist holding some overnight, as well, headed into the NVDA Investor Day tomorrow.  I'll be out before the event, though, because these things are normally sell the news events, regardless of what magic they unveil.
  • Trade: Added some $LAC to hold long-term (we'll see how long that actually is) at 30.17.  Big fan of this one.  Coming off that 24 bottom which I've been staring at for days.
  • Trade: I exited $IPI disgustingly early at 14.25 (from 13).  It went to 26 by end of day, just didn't stop moving up.  It had no exposure to Canada, so it was 'the' fertilizer play.
  • Ukraine/Russia - I didn't see any improvements here.  Same situation, though I'm sure we'll hear about more 'talks' this week.  I think the market is losing interest on this topic - for now.

Looking Ahead (Tuesday)
  • We've got three Fed presidents talking at various times on Tuesday.  No JPow.
  • I'm primarily focused on AMD tomorrow.  The NVDA event is at 10am PST (1pm EST). I will be out well before that.  I also need to check on when they actually release information for the event.  Before? During?
  • I'll be sitting back and waiting for a pullback on $MOS and $IPI - both are in overbought territory now - but there's an overriding, major fundamental event in progress.  So I might be waiting for a while.  I'll do it, though.  When the technicals kick in, it's fierce.
  • Chart: That JPow dip worked out some overbought conditions.  While it didn't feel like it, we did close red today on both SPY/QQQ.  That was needed.  I think we see more consolidation on Tuesday with a bend towards upside, especially on QQQ.  
  • We are right at the 200 on the SPY -- 446.  Once that breaks, we're going right to 450.
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Maverick - 2 years ago
I'm reading more about what JPow actually said.  Very hawkish.  He's bringing the heat in May.  No way I'll be holding calls anywhere near May.  

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Created By: Maverick
Created: Feb 8, 2021
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I trade SPY, QQQ, and specific story sectors using technical analysis and gut rubs.

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