QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 23:38 PM - Apr 16 2023
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: April 17, 2023 - QQQ 325/313 range; quiet economic calendar, busy earnings kickoff.


Economic Calendar
  • Monday: Empire State Index @ 0830, Fed Barkin @ 12:45
  • Tuesday:  Housing Starts @ 0830, Fed Bowman @ 1300
  • Wednesday:  Fed Williams @ 1900
  • Thursday:  Jobless claims + Philly Index @ 0830, Fed speaks throughout the day (I count 4 of them)
  • Friday: PMI (both) @ 0945

  • Here we go again.
  • Smaller banks start off the week
  • NFLX Tuesday AH
  • TSLA Wednesday AH
  • Industrials Thursday and Friday

Market Thoughts:
  • Last week:  I made two trades last week - closing out the MNQ short I had (for 9 days!) for a profit; re-opening it a bit higher - currently holding that.
  • Economic calendar:  There’s some quiet killers on the calendar for this week.  Empire State, PMI, and all those speakers on Thursday.
  • On Wednesday, CPI showed nice headline decline, but stickiness in core - so we got the rip and fade.  That was the low for the week.  Note that a lot of headline was tied to the dip in oil that has now roared back.
  • Nothing has changed in my strategy/view from last three Sundays.  The bulls are still in charge.
  • Exact repeat of last week: Technically though - we’re staring down a pullback.   It tried on Wed & Thu, but then Friday did its normal “nope”
  • Heading into FOMC next month, the bulls can’t scream banking crisis, then report record earnings on Friday.  It’s one or the other.
  • I wouldn’t be surprised to see another bank or two sacrificed to JPow ahead of May 3, worked last time.  Short KRE?
  • Earnings season should be a wide array of big beats and screams of pain
  • Fed is already putting out there they are coming in with higher rates than even were talked about last time.  They didn’t get their 50bps and they know they need to keep going while things are hot.  They’e backstopped the banks/financial sector - so what’s the problem?
  • I’m seeing no pain yet - jobs are insanely strong, I look around while out. not seeing it.  Yes, groceries are expensive as hell, but that’s about it.
  • I remain bearish, just clearly many months early.
  • If you look at the PPO, MACD, RSI - it’s all just looking for a high-volume reason to jump off a cliff.  It just hasn’t had one yet - amazingly - that the market cares about.
  • Fun fact: QQQ is almost exact price it was 1 year ago today.  We’ve gone nowhere despite a wild ride.


Technicals (Latest):
  • QQQ 200 MA: 292.25 (trading way above) 
    • 100MA is about to cross upwards over the 200MA - bullish
  •  
  • SPY 200 MA: 394.07 (trading well above)

Expected move (per options chain)
  • QQQ +/- 6
  • SPY +/- 6

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: I’ve got MNQ short (mini NASDAQ futures).  Looking at the PPO and negative MACD for some action to the downside.
  • If we get a dip to 313, I’m learning my lesson for the third time, and closing and going long for now - unless it’s on major fundamental news.
  • With VIX @ 17 (incredible), I’m going to stack some puts for September or later, starting Monday.


Screenshot 2023-04-16 at 23.37.33.png 778.55 KB

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 22:29 PM - Apr 09 2023
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: April 10, 2023 - QQQ 325/313 range; CPI + PPI - pullback, then run continues into May 3

Economic Calendar
  • Monday: Wholesale inventories @ 1000; Fed Williams @ 1615
  • Tuesday:  Fed Harker @ 1600, Fed Kashkari @ 1930
  • Wednesday:  CPI @ 0830 ⚠️; Fed Barkin @ 0900; Fed Daily @ 1200; FOMC Minutes @ 1400
  • Thursday:  Jobless claims & PPI @ 0830
  • Friday: Retail Sales @ 0830, Fed Waller @ 0845, Industrial Production @ 0915, UMich @ 1000 ⚠️

Market Thoughts:
  • Last week:  I didn’t make any trades after Monday. 🤯
  • Economic calendar:  We’ve got FEd Speakers sprinkled all over the week, CPI & FOMC minutes on Wednesday, PPI Thursday, and Retail Sales Friday.
  • This week is focused on the Fed Trade/Inflation Trade.
  • PCE came in lower than expected - bullish.
  • Jobs came in solid still - bullish for economy, gives Fed a little more room for another hike.
  • CPI is on Wednesday - that one might be tricky for the bulls.  It’s expected to be a bit sticky and even tick up a little. ⚠️
  • Nothing has changed in my strategy/view from last two Sundays.  The bulls are still favored overall and I’m looking for go-long opportunities.
  • Technically though - we’re staring down a pullback.   It tried on Wed & Thu, but then Friday did its normal “nope”
  • We’re very close to the 100 & 200 MA crossing (100 pushing up above 200).  The last time this happened on QQQ daily chart was May 2019.
  • If history repeats, we’re going to get a pullback (now) and then a solid run to 330/340 - which would support the narrative of bull run into May 3 FOMC Meeting (I’ll be on sidelines for that - could go either way)
  • I’ll be looking for this.



Technicals (Latest):
  • QQQ 200 MA: 291.51 (trading way above) 
    • 100MA is about to cross upwards over the 200MA - bullish
  •  
  • SPY 200 MA: 393.46 (trading well above)

Expected move (per options chain)
  • QQQ +/- 7.8
  • SPY +/- 7.6

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: I’ve got MNQ short (mini NASDAQ futures).  Looking for this pullback I see on the chart.
  • Will let that play out - 313? - then look at Friday’s data to go long.
  • I’m in no rush


Screenshot 2023-04-09 at 22.20.09.png 334.19 KB
0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 21:35 PM - Apr 02 2023
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: April 3, 2023 - QQQ small pullback, then raging on

Economic Calendar
  • Monday: OPEC meeting @ 0600, Bullard @ 0830, PMI - Manufacturing @ 0945
  • Tuesday:  JOLTS & Factory Orders @ 1000
  • Wednesday:  ADP @ 0815, PMI Services @ 0945
  • Thursday:  Jobless claims @ 0830; Bullard @ 1000
  • Friday: US markets are closed for Good Friday.  However, Non-Farm Payrolls/Wages are still set to be released @ 0830 and Consumer Credit @ 1500 - will make for an interesting Monday.
  • NEXT Week: CPI

Market Thoughts:
  • Last week:  My plan (as I wrote on Sunday) was to exit my puts/shorts on a pullback and then look for a moment to go long.  I submitted an order to close my QQQ puts on Tuesday around QQQ 305 (small loss) and my order missed by about .05.  I stubbornly held waiting on it to dip just a little more to fill me, never went long and well…it raged on to 320 with me in awe.  I was so right and so wrong.
  • Economic calendar:  The week has some fun every morning.  I’d say JOLTS, OPEC, and Bullard x2 are the highlights.
  • Nothing has changed in my strategy/view from last Sunday - the market only confirmed it - big time - last week.
  • So, on that note, read last week’s Week Ahead: https://stonks.chat/symbol/QQQ/posts/345
  • New information from last week 
    • PCE (favorite indicator of Fed) came in lower than expected on Friday - very bullish.
    • It was end of quarter, so closing out the books - bullish as we saw
    • Some of the smartest traders I know are either capitulating (going long) OR adding more shorts — this is the kettle boiling for a blow off the top
  •  New information tonight 
    • OPEC cutting production by 1M/day - bearish - this impacts inflation and was a surprise - this will hit QQQ the most
    • McDonalds expected to announce layoffs - neither - but points to eventual recession once bad news is a thing again.
  •  Bulls remain in charge until further notice.


Technicals (Latest):
  • QQQ 200 MA: 290.70 (trading way above) 
    • 100MA is about to cross upwards over the 200MA - bullish
  •  SPY 200 MA: 392.62 (trading well above)

Expected move (per options chain)
  • QQQ +/- 6.4
  • SPY +/- 6.2

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • *Repeat from last week…trade didn’t execute 🤡
  • Current position: I’ve got some QQQ puts for June 16.  I will look to exit these on a technical pullback to cut my losses. 
  • I’ll then flip to long bias (in line with my comments above — this means I’ll be looking for reasons to go long vs short at every opportunity)


Screenshot 2023-04-02 at 21.34.59.png 305.03 KB
0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 23:54 PM - Mar 26 2023
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: March 27, 2023 + Rest of Year Prediction (Fed, Recession)

Economic Calendar
  • Monday: Nothing.
  • Tuesday:  Consumer Confidence + Fed Bar Testimony (Banks) - Senate @ 1000
  • Wednesday:  Pending Home Sales + Fed Bar Testimony (Banks) - House @ 1000; Yellen @ 1545
  • Thursday:  Jobless claims & GDP @ 0830; Fed Collins @ 1245
  • Friday: ⚠️PCE @ 0830; Chicago PMI @ 0945; Fed Waller + UMICH @ 1000; Fed Williams @ 1500; Fed Cook @ 1745
  • NEXT Week: Non-Farm Payrolls/Unemployment + JOLTS

Market Thoughts:

Technicals (Latest):
  • QQQ 200 MA: 290.11 (trading above/hasn’t tested lately)
  • SPY 200 MA: 392.34 (trading above/held)

Expected move (per options chain)
  • QQQ +/- 8.7
  • SPY +/- 9.1

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: I’ve got some QQQ puts for June 16.  I will look to exit these on a technical pullback to get out with some green.
  • I’ll then flip to long bias (in line with my comments above — this means I’ll be looking for reasons to go long vs short at every opportunity)

Screenshot 2023-03-26 at 23.53.46.png 429.06 KB

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 19:39 PM - Mar 19 2023
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: March 20, 2023 - QQQ 295-315 range; FOMC + Bank Failures + Emergency Moves

Economic Calendar
  • Monday: Nothing.
  • Tuesday:  Existing Home Sales @ 1000
  • Wednesday:  FOMC @ 2pm, Q&A @ 2:30pm - obviously, even of the week/quarter ⚠️
  • Thursday:  Jobless Claims @ 0830, New Home Sales @ 1000
  • Friday: Core Durable Goods @ 0830, FOMC Bullards @ 0930, PMI @ 0945 (plenty going on near the open)
  • NEXT Week: PCE

Market Thoughts:
  • Last week:  What didn’t happen last week? I got popped on my M-W profits on Thursday due to bad risk management (no stop, which was my final warning point in my Sunday Week Ahead last week 🤦).
  • My overall sentiment is bearish - still.  The banks cracking are part of my bearish thesis, but I didn’t see the Fed coming in and rescuing it so quickly.  That was….fast.
  • Thursday said a lot.  Money always flows somewhere.  If the banks/SPY are failing, then it’s QQQ, Gold, Crypto.  QQQ had its biggest gain of the year on Thursday.
  • I had a theory that may have played out to add fuel to that fire: If you’re worried about your cash at the bank not being insured (>250k), then where can you move it to?  Stocks, gold, crypto.  Is this what we saw on Thursday?
  • Crypto is really having a moment right now - as it should - it was designed for a moment like this.
  • The entire gush into QQQ does all seem like a final hurrah by retail.  I think you can see most institutions are basically short on the market - or at least risk-off.  Retail is just piling in though.
  • Fed has come in and backstopped all depositors 100% - this is historic.  This is not bullish - but just the start of problems.  Which is why they went so extreme.
  • I’m pretty unclear on what the trade is here - so I’m going to be playing it light.  I’ve actually gone back to options because the Futures are so, so volatile at the moment - especially during market hours.  Your stops have to be too wide for comfort right now, candles are just too big.
  • It sure looks like the Fed has said “nothing is going to fail, we’ve got you, keep the party going” — some participants view all this as QE since balance sheet went up a hell of a lot in a week.
  • This doesn’t help with their battle against inflation.  I can’t imagine they are giving up that fight, so what’s their move?
  • I don’t think anybody knows, which is why Wednesday is event of the week/month/quarter. 
  • I’m going to say - for now - the move is long Mon/Tue afternoon.  Wednesday, you’ve got to be on the beach and just wait for the waves to start - then give it a few hours or even a day.  It will be a massively trend setting day.
  • I will note that my inputs — DXY, TNX, 2Y are very broke right now and not lining up like normal - so I’m confused by everything going on - but I don’t think I’m alone…..

Technicals (Latest):
  • QQQ 200 MA: 290.11
  • SPY 200 MA: 392.80

Expected move (per options chain)
  • QQQ +/- 11
  • SPY +/- 12

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: I’ve got AMD and QQQ puts (June 2023) that I’m holding just to keep my bearish heart alive.  
  • I’m long NQ as of Sunday night expecting a follow on QQQ move Mon-Tue with this ‘everything is OK, nothing fails’ + ‘anything but banks’ tailwind
  • I’ll probably hold my QQQ puts through FOMC (because they are so far out and position size is small), but I’ll otherwise be in cash and waiting several hours after the man speak to see what next move is.

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 22:50 PM - Mar 12 2023
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: March 13, 2023 - QQQ 280-300 range; Special Banking Announcements + CPI + PPI + Retail Sales

Economic Calendar
  • Monday: Nothing.
  • Tuesday:  CPI @ 0830, FOMC Bowman @ 1720
  • Wednesday:  PPI, Retail Sales, NY Manu @ 0830
  • Thursday:  Jobless Claims, Housing Data, Philly @ 0830
  • Friday: Industrial Production @ 0915, UMICH @ 1000
  • NEXT Week: FOMC

Market Thoughts:


Technicals (Latest):
  • QQQ 200 MA: 290.09
  • SPY 200 MA: 393.16

Expected move (per options chain)
  • QQQ +/- 12
  • SPY +/- 10

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: I traded the rip on Sunday night with NQ after I saw Fed announcement.
  • I’m just looking for another spot to go long, expecting a rip up at/before the open.
  • I plan to write a Wednesday update to see where we are then.

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 00:13 AM - Mar 06 2023
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: Feb 27, 2023 - QQQ 293-308 range; JPow + JOLTS + NFP

Economic Calendar
  • Monday: Factory Orders @ 1000
  • Tuesday:  JPow - Senate @ 1000; Consumer Credit @ 1500
  • Wednesday:  ADP @ 0815 (does this matter anymore?), JPow - House @ 1000, JOLTS @ 1000
  • Thursday:  Jobless Claims @ 0830, Fed Waller @ 1000
  • Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls + Wages @ 0830 (event of the week)
  • NEXT Week: CPI + PPI + Retail Sales + UMICH
  • NEXT NEXT Week: FOMC

Market Thoughts:
  • Last week:  I was at a year high going into Thursday morning - then went short on the morning’s data (bearish) when we broke through 200MA support.  I was dancing.  Then Bostic spoke + we bounced. Hard.  That ripped my head off, I had no stop in.  Then I averaged down on Thursday night, piling in more to the short.  You can look at the Thu/Fri chart to see how this turned out.  Ouch.  I’ve got a new stop policy that will prevent such a screwup in the future.
  • Economic calendar:  We’re getting this party started this week with JPow, JOLTS, NFP; then next week CPI + PPI.  Then FOMC after that.
  • Repeating from last week: My overall sentiment has not changed - I’m bearish and remain so.  It’s going to take months to play out, however, with the unemployment rate and insane consumer spending.  I still think we’re just going to run off a cliff and ‘break’ something.  That’s not today or even this month.
  • The bearish case remains squarely in deteriorating fundamentals in the face of rising rates.
  • The bullish case is technical and narrative shifting - which has been done brilliantly.
  • I have to fight hard with myself to go long in this market, because I don’t believe in it - but the bulls are in charge right now.  The market, by default, just wants to go up.  The vast, vast majority of market participants are buy and hold - not traders.  So the market will always be bent to the upside.
  • Until the market finds that cliff it’s going to run off (eventually), I’m going to bend my brain to the long side.  If I can find any reason to go long - I will. Probably.
  • I have been staying away from events - meaning I’m always out of my position ahead of the ones that matter.  THat’s proven to be effective.  Trading the follow-on wave works very well once you let the market figure out what way it wants to go (not always clear in the first 5-10 min how it wants to process the data)
  • This will be important this week because we’ve got events each day starting on Tuesday.
  • So, technicals.
  • We bounced right off the 200MA on both SPY and QQQ last week.  I don’t see us testing the 200MA again until some seriously bad data drops or FOMC.
  • The Daily on SPY + QQQ say we’ve got plenty of room to run
  • 30M says we need to pullback first (Monday)
  • The Weekly on SPY is neutral.  QQQ says we’ve got room to run.
  • DXY spent the back half of the week cooling off — 105.30 is tough for it to crack.  I expect it to grind sideways in 104 range until Friday on NFP - then it will move big.  It’s going tick for tick on NQ/QQQ though. DXY up, QQQ down.  DXY down, QQQ up.


Technicals (Latest):
  • QQQ 200 MA: 290.06
  • SPY 200 MA: 393.14

Expected move (per options chain)
  • QQQ +/- 7.84
  • SPY +/- 8.50

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: I’m currently short NQ.  I’ve got 50 point stop loss and a 100 point closing order. (OCO)
  • I’m looking for a pullback overnight/Monday from where we are now
  • I’ll be looking for spots to go long
  • QQQ 293 I’d buy with both hands
  • QQQ 313 I’d short with both hands

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 22:15 PM - Feb 26 2023
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: Feb 27, 2023 - QQQ 290-298 range; many small events this week; technicals should drive.

Economic Calendar
  • Monday: Durable Goods @ 0830
  • Tuesday:  S&P Home index @ 0900, Chicago PMI @ 0945, Consumer Confidence @ 1000
  • Wednesday:  FOMC Kashkari @ 0900, ISM - Manufacturing @ 1000
  • Thursday:  Jobless Claims @ 0830, Fed Waller @ 1600, FOMC Kashkar @ 1800
  • Friday: Services PMI @ 0945, ISM Services @ 1000, FOMC Bostic @ 1145, Fed Bowman @ 1500

Market Thoughts:
  • Last week:  I ended the week up.  I didn’t trade much, it was a slow and steady week.  I avoided trading ahead of the events, just the follow on wave after.  No complaints.
  • Economic calendar:  This is more difficult week than it seems.  There’s no major economic event, but many smaller ones.  Keep an eye on the calendar and step out of the way of any of them that might surprise you — ones I see are Kashkari speaking twice, the PMI/ISM data, and Consumer Confidence.
  • Earnings: Target is on Tuesday premarket and Lowes is in Wednesday premarket.
  • There looks to be nothing major in the way of fundamentals this week - though many smaller ones as I noted - so technicals are likely to run the show this week.
  • The bulls got a punch in the face with PCE on Friday.  It came in hotter than expected and the market moved down in response to spike in DXY and TNX.
  • We closed well under 400 on SPY and well under 300 on QQQ — the sentiment took a turn last week.
  • My overall sentiment has not changed - I’m bearish and remain so.  It’s going to take months to play out there with the unemployment rate and insane consumer spending.  I still think we’re just going to run off a cliff and ‘break’ something.  That’s not today, though.
  • We’re going to start hearing more about upcoming FOMC and for good reason.  A 50bps rate hike is back on the table with these strong numbers out.  A 50bps would be a blow to the inflation is dead argument, but more interesting will be the updated SEP numbers at this meeting.  These will, without a doubt, get revised upward yet again.  This should smack the market down.  The next FOMC is March 22, 2023.  JPow is looking over his glasses at us…
  • So, technicals.
  • We bounced right off the 200MA on both SPY and QQQ.  I’d look for it to test it again.  I am not convinced it will break it unless one of these many pieces of data this week is off the charts bad.  
  • It looks like a week of grinding out technicals with 200MA support holding and probably ending higher on the week.  This will be my trade this week.
  • It’s tough to short here (aka shorting in the hole) against that 200MA.  I’d want to see it convincingly broken before I took a short out.
  • Weekly and Daily charts say OK to hold short position though.
  • NOTE: Next Friday is Non-Farm Payrolls - this will move the market.


Technicals (Latest):
  • QQQ 200 MA: 291.15
  • SPY 200 MA: 393.25

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: I’ve got nothing at the moment.  Traded NQ long tonight for some dinner money to start the week off right.
  • I’ll be eyeing the 200MA tests for a technical bounce/long trade.


Screenshot 2023-02-26 at 22.12.12.png 309.16 KB
0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 22:23 PM - Feb 19 2023
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: Feb 20, 2023 - QQQ 295-305 range; FOMC Minutes + PCE.

Economic Calendar
  • Monday: US Markets closed - though Futures are open for a limited session Sun-Mon
  • Tuesday:  PMI @ 0945
  • Wednesday:  FOMC Minutes @ 1400 ⚠️ + FOMC Williams @ 1830
  • Thursday:  Jobless Claims + GDP @ 0830, Fed Bostic @ 1045
  • Friday: PCE @ 0830 ⚠️⚠️ + UMich @ 1000 ⚠️ + FOMC Mester @ 1015

Market Thoughts:
  • Last week:  I ended the week overall down just slightly, but I was very pleased with OPEX.  Traded that well and Friday I was nicely green to finish the week.
  • Economic calendar:  FOMC Minutes (is everybody else as Jolly as JPow?) and PCE will be the headline pieces of data.
  • Earnings: WMT and HD report on Tue/Feb 21.  I expect them to both guide down a bit.
  • From last week: “I think we could see an uptick in CPI (as early as the March 14 report) and JPow to come in with a 50bps with new SEP.  FOMC next meeting + SEP will be March 22.  If not then, then it’ll be during the summer/June meeting.  Inflation is pushing higher at some point.”
  • CPI ticked higher and you’re already hearing rumblings about 50bps may be needed again….it’s coming.  Just may not be as fast as bears want.
  • I’ll be interested in the FOMC minutes on Wednesday to see if everybody is as equally Jolly as JPow has been.  Out in the wild, they are showing some hawkishness.  To me that suggests and upward revision in SEP….again.
  • For now though, this is a bull’s game.  They’ve got the Fed adding fuel to the fire with the 25bps + general tone.  Every dip is being bought for the most part.  There’s many indicators in the bulls favor right now for data that’s known.
  • There was a sentiment change on Thursday/Friday - even if only temporary, when something went splat at exactly 3pm on Thursday.  Then we just went on a typical OpEx Friday ride of big candles going in both directions early on (mechanical).
  • This is a shortened holiday week and likely to be low volume until FOMC minutes and then PCE on Friday.  That normally favors a move to the upside.
  • DXY is going tick for tick with QQQ.  It’s hovering around 104.  A move down to 103 will blast it higher, a move to 105 will smack it down.  The script hasn’t flipped yet on that one.
  • However, there’s some technical indicators pointing towards a pullback.  QQQ looks on a path down, SPY a bit stronger, but it’s not far from its key 405 level.
  • Overall, looks choppy to me.  I don’t see a big move in either direction until Wednesday and then again on Friday.
  • SPY held a key number (closing) - 405
  • QQQ held a key number (closing) - 300

Technicals (Latest):
  • QQQ 200 MA: 291 (well above it)
  • SPY 200 MA: 393.61 (still well above it)

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: I’ve got nothing at the moment.
  • I just don’t see any clear trade today, but my lean (big surprise) is bearish mostly due to divergence of QQQ with TIP.
  • So I’ll be looking for an entry on a pop to go short and bet on technicals triggering a pull back.
  • Once that happens, I’ll be looking to go long - maybe.

QQQ + TIP overlay - short thesis

Screenshot 2023-02-19 at 22.22.03.png 448 KB
0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 20:54 PM - Feb 12 2023
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: Feb 13, 2023 - QQQ 292-305 range; CPI + Retail Sales + Fed Speakers.

Stock Market Week Ahead: Feb 13, 2023 - QQQ 292-305 range; CPI + Retail Sales + Fed Speakers.

Economic Calendar
  • Monday: NY Fed 1 & 5 year inflation @ 1100
  • Tuesday:  CPI @ 0830 ⚠️, FOMC Williams @ 1400
  • Wednesday:  Retail Sales @ 0830 ⚠️
  • Thursday:  Jobless claims + Housing + Philly Fed @ 0830., FOMC Mester @ 0845, FOMC Bullard @ 1330
  • Friday: Nothing.
  • Note: There are more Fed speakers on the calendar, so please check that.  I just noted ones I am interested in.

Market Thoughts:

Technicals (Latest):
  • QQQ 200 MA: 291 (well above it)
  • SPY 200 MA: 394 (still well above it)

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: I entered an NQ short on Friday at the close and added more to it on Sunday night for an average of 12,320 NQ
  • I’m looking for 12250 at least, but 12200 before CPI
  • I will NOT hold through CPI.  I intend to be neutral on Monday afternoon or early Tuesday at the latest
  • After CPI, I’ll decide what to do - I want to review the data (not the initial market reaction)
  • If warm/higher than expected, I’d expect QQQ 292.  I do not expect a ‘hot’ reading.


Screenshot 2023-02-12 at 20.50.59.png 247.43 KB


0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Patrick M

OUT QQQ 309 Put 2022-06-03 @ $4.07
+68.88%
10:25 AM - Jun 01 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 309 Put 2022-06-03 @ 2.41
10:24 AM - Jun 01 2022
Trade By: Patrick M from the StonksChat Group

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT QQQ 312 Call 2022-06-10 @ $6.15
+46.43%
That worked.

23:52 PM - May 31 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 312 Call 2022-06-10 @ 4.2
Had to join my boy Samosa for some QQQ love.

23:52 PM - May 31 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT QQQ 290 Put 2022-05-31 @ $8.8
+5.77%
23:15 PM - May 23 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 290 Put 2022-05-31 @ 8.32
I picked these up shortly after the open around 290.  I did sell half at 9.00 within 3 minutes, but the other half slapped me all day.

23:03 PM - May 19 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT QQQ 300 Call 2022-05-31 @ $3.45
-31%
Calls are a tough game to play right now.

22:42 PM - May 19 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 300 Call 2022-05-31 @ 5
These were from 5/18, held overnight.

22:42 PM - May 19 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: samosa

OUT QQQ 310 Call 2022-05-27 @ $1.12
-63.87%
I held onto this call way way too long. I honestly was hoping for a 298 test and it just knifed right through it that it left me frozen. It just never recovered and just bled out all day long. 

22:11 PM - May 18 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 310 Call 2022-05-27 @ 3.1
QQQ in the morning kept flirting with the 301 level and I decided to jump in after a small 5 min candle closed right at it near the open. 

22:09 PM - May 18 2022
Trade By: samosa from the Bones Tradez Group

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: samosa

OUT QQQ 299 Call 2022-05-23 @ $6.48
-24.91%
Spoiler alert: there was more downside and I decided to take the L on this one. 

22:06 PM - May 12 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 299 Call 2022-05-23 @ 8.63
I bought these on Wednesday anticipating a technical bounce was due for QQQ. We were really close to oversold conditions on the 30 min chart, so I didn't anticipate much downside left. 

22:06 PM - May 12 2022
Trade By: samosa from the Bones Tradez Group

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT QQQ 301 Call 2022-05-20 @ $8.05
+8.78%
Middle of the day on the turn.

02:38 AM - May 11 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 301 Call 2022-05-20 @ 7.4
02:38 AM - May 11 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT QQQ 301 Call 2022-05-20 @ $9.27
+5.82%
Had a lot more profit open at the open, can’t believe it died so fast

02:37 AM - May 11 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 301 Call 2022-05-20 @ 8.76
02:37 AM - May 11 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT QQQ 301 Call 2022-05-20 @ $9.2
+3.84%
Missed at 11.00 at the open.  Still, profit.

02:32 AM - May 11 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 301 Call 2022-05-20 @ 8.86
I picked this one up on the 301 move to the upside (after the morning dive).  I thought at 304 we were going to 307.  Wasn't right today, but feeling good about this one heading into Wednesday.  I like the strike & date for a technical bounce here.

00:55 AM - May 10 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: samosa

OUT QQQ 305 Call 2022-05-13 @ $5.72
+21.96%
We got a nice rally in the morning that I sold into strength. 

22:11 PM - May 10 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 305 Call 2022-05-13 @ 4.69
QQQ had taken a turn downward and I decided to play a short covering rally back up for today. 

22:09 PM - May 10 2022
Trade By: samosa from the Bones Tradez Group

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: samosa

OUT QQQ 301 Call 2022-05-20 @ $9.2
-1.18%
I completely mismanaged this trade. I was way green and decided to let it run without locking in a massive profit at the open. 

22:11 PM - May 10 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 301 Call 2022-05-20 @ 9.31
I decided to grab some calls for a pending relief rally. The technicals are getting close to oversold so I think we will see a bounce very soon. Grabbed the May 20th's here to stomach any drops. 

21:50 PM - May 09 2022
Trade By: samosa from the Bones Tradez Group

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT QQQ 305 Put 2022-05-13 @ $7.95
+6%
I'll take the small W.  Should coulda would held all day.  Closed at 10.40.

00:53 AM - May 10 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 305 Put 2022-05-13 @ 7.5
Stuck with the plan from Sunday.

00:52 AM - May 10 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: samosa

OUT QQQ 300 Put 2022-05-13 @ $5.45
+17.46%
The market started falling fast and I put in a sell order for around 20%. I was happy to have this fill so quickly after I purchased it. 

21:48 PM - May 09 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 300 Put 2022-05-13 @ 4.64
QQQ had failed the 305 test early after the open. This was the signal I needed to grab some puts. 

21:44 PM - May 09 2022
Trade By: samosa from the Bones Tradez Group

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: samosa

OUT QQQ 300 Put 2022-05-09 @ $1.8
-37.06%
We got a bullish spike on Friday and I decided to take the L fast on this. 

21:42 PM - May 09 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 300 Put 2022-05-09 @ 2.86
I bought these early on Friday and liked the setup for the market to dip heading into the weekend. 

21:42 PM - May 09 2022
Trade By: samosa from the Bones Tradez Group

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: samosa

OUT QQQ 324 Put 2022-05-11 @ $10.16
+17.32%
The market started to test 320 and I put in a nice trailing stop. Well unfortunately, the market absolutely cratered after I sold. This was a bittersweet win. 

20:03 PM - May 02 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 324 Put 2022-05-11 @ 8.66
I faded the rip on the early morning move upward on Thursday. This move was a reaction to Facebook and I was 

19:57 PM - May 02 2022
Trade By: samosa from the Bones Tradez Group

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: samosa

OUT QQQ 324 Put 2022-05-11 @ $10.18
0.00%
Correction trade. I put in the wrong buy price. 

19:57 PM - May 02 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 324 Put 2022-05-11 @ 10.18
I faded the rip on the early morning move upward on Friday. Apple had great earnings but gave a negative short term outlook. The market reacted and I decided to play this weakness. 

19:55 PM - May 02 2022
Trade By: samosa from the Bones Tradez Group

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: samosa

OUT QQQ 320 Put 2022-04-29 @ $4.4
+29.41%
The market started to dip and I put in my trailing stop rather aggressively once I was green. This triggered pretty quickly as we got a nice move down to 318. 

05:31 AM - Apr 29 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 320 Put 2022-04-29 @ 3.4
The GDP numbers came in much worse than expected. I decided to fade the rip we got in the morning coming off the FB earnings report. 

05:29 AM - Apr 29 2022
Trade By: samosa from the Bones Tradez Group

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT QQQ 318 Put 2022-05-06 @ $6.68
+11.33%
Put in a trailing stop limit and it did me right.

22:30 PM - Apr 28 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 318 Put 2022-05-06 @ 6
It gapped, so I waited about 3 minutes and went puts.  I flipped over to puts vs calls because the surprise GDP loss announced.

22:29 PM - Apr 28 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
OUT QQQ 309 Put 2022-04-27 @ $34
+30.77%
10:35 AM - Apr 27 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 309 Put 2022-04-27 @ 26
ORB'd it with whatever bullets I had left. Made a quick buck.

10:35 AM - Apr 27 2022
Trade By: Cmax56_trades

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT QQQ 323 Call 2022-05-06 @ $5.15
-51.18%
Took a nasty beating in this one.  This trade did not go at all as expected.  I was at tidy profit at Monday's close and was expecting a pop at the open on Tuesday.  Didn't get it, but just kept holding.  All day.  I shouldn't have held it overnight in the first place, shouldn't have sized up, and should have cut it at the open when I was wrong (would have still been a profit).  It happens, but damn...

03:02 AM - Apr 27 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 323 Call 2022-05-06 @ 10.55
Grabbed this one expecting a rally headed into tech earnings this week.  I'll be out before MSFT reports, even though I think MSFT & GOOGL will hit - not worth risking it.

01:05 AM - Apr 26 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT QQQ 320 Call 2022-05-06 @ $13
+10.92%
01:03 AM - Apr 26 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 320 Call 2022-05-06 @ 11.72
Bounce time.

01:03 AM - Apr 26 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: samosa

OUT QQQ 341 Put 2022-04-29 @ $4.93
+31.47%
QQQ started dropping quick so I put in my first trailing stop on an option. What a magical experience. It filled me at 4.93 after setting it at 4.70. Now ultimately this put ended up hitting 10.00 but let's ignore that fact. 

20:46 PM - Apr 21 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 341 Put 2022-04-29 @ 3.75
TSLA reported strong earnings on Wed and the market started off hot at the open. QQQ was approaching an important level at 347 and it ran passed it. As it slowly gravitated back to it, I decided to enter the put play as I anticipated selling heading into the JPow speech. 

20:44 PM - Apr 21 2022
Trade By: samosa from the Bones Tradez Group

2
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: samosa

OUT QQQ 337 Put 2022-04-22 @ $1.75
+14.38%
I was in this trade for maybe a few minutes. My limit hit very fast. Again, more on the aggressive side but I will keep taking these small wins. 

20:53 PM - Apr 20 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 337 Put 2022-04-22 @ 1.53
QQQ had broken under the 343 support so I hopped in a put that was a little risky. I set my limit immediately after I bought this as it was a risky risky strike. 

20:52 PM - Apr 20 2022
Trade By: samosa from the Bones Tradez Group

1
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Nanidafuq?

OUT QQQ 345 Put 2022-04-20 @ $2.32
+47.77%
Closed at yesterday's support level (expecting buyers)

11:42 AM - Apr 20 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 345 Put 2022-04-20 @ 1.57
Key resistance level (expecting strong selling presssure)

11:40 AM - Apr 20 2022
Trade By: Nanidafuq? from the Bones Tradez Group

1
QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Nanidafuq?

OUT QQQ 345 Put 2022-04-20 @ $2
+33.33%
Closed at previous low (expecting some support)

11:41 AM - Apr 20 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: QQQ 345 Put 2022-04-20 @ 1.5
Retest on ORB + VWAP + 15min Doji + Resistance level from yesterday

11:38 AM - Apr 20 2022
Trade By: Nanidafuq? from the Bones Tradez Group

1

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 - QQQ

Total Followers: 0
Follow
Link Copied to Clipboard!