• SPY closed +5.64 today, QQQ +6.28
• TRADE: $SPY  puts @ open for a tidy profit, SPY calls in afternoon for a few bucks.
• AFRM - damn, I really blew this one.  It was in weekend charts as prime play, I stared at it Monday, then I stared at it Tuesday.  It put on another +11% today.  Bravo!
• AMD roared +3 today, I didn’t trade it.  Powder keg lid came off as expected last few days.  Well done, AMD.
• AAPL just won’t stop.  I stand in admiration. We’re only about 6 points from an all time high here…
• Russia/Ukraine unexpectedly (to me) reported progress that Russia would “significantly reduce” troops in Kyiv.  This excited the market quite a lot - and while I hope it’s true - I’m not buying it right now.  They’re still firing there…
• This caused my $MOS  trade to get absolutely wrecked at the open (-55%).  I didn’t close it or average down because I had plenty (unfortunately), but MOS came back very strong to close at 64.45 after dipping all the way to 59.  I’m flat around 67.75.
• More Fed hawks were out giving warnings today about May.  Even Bullard showed up off the top rope today.

• Ukraine/Russia will hold more talks on Wednesday in Turkey.  I’ve no idea what to expect here, but I think we’ll get some clarification in the negative direction as far as troops.  I really don’t think it was what everybody thought it was. I expect to see some positive notes, but to hear that the troops were repositioned to new areas, not sent home.
• If that happens, commodities (and MOS) will resume their run that was interrupted today.
• ADP unemployment report on Wednesday at 8:15am, but I don’t know what this is worth anymore
• More Fed Presidents at 9;15am and 1pm
• SPY - I am looking at puts on Wednesday.  We’re at an interesting cross roads here.  There’s CPE data on Thursday morning, which also happens to be March 31, the end of the quarter.  There could be a counter-balance of selling the CPE data and funds painting the tape.
• If SPY doesn’t crack on Thursday, I think it pulls back a lot on Friday at the latest.  I’ll have puts for sure on Thursday afternoon if it runs into the close and the overbought conditions remain.
• SPY chart is very overbought on 30m and approaching that zone on the daily - it’s going to pullback, I don’t care how optimistic retail is right now.  See above for the charts.