SPY - SPDR S&P 500 22:27 PM - Apr 16 2023
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - April 16th, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

Sorry for the lack of preview last week. I was traveling for the holiday and was playing catch up all week long. Last week was filled with important marco data from the CPI and PPI to Retail Sales and Bank Earnings. But it was one report that caught the market off guard a bit... that sneaky UoM consumer index report.  The CPI came in sticky, and PPI saw a nice drawdown. Retail Sales came in weak and the UoM report showed a shocking number for the 1 year inflation expectations. Expectations for the number were 3.5%, it came in at 4.6%. The market took a moment to digest it, and then began to sell off on Friday. Throughout the week, dip buyers showed up in full force on the bigger dips, and Friday was no different. We rallied at the end of the day and say us almost finish green for QQQ. 

So let's revisit the bullish and bearish arguments and see how each have changed. 

Bullish Thesis - 

  • 2 Week Outlook
    • PPI came in nice and cool and is considered a leading indicator. We got 25 BPS hike pretty much confirmed with the Jobs data and CPI data, and the market is handling it well. We have taken all the hits from the bears and are still consolidating above 405 and 410. Market is holding up well and not sure what more ammunition the bears have to drag the market down.  We do have major earnings coming up, so we have to be cautious getting too bullish. 
  • 1 Month Outlook 
    • The Fed is set to raise one more time in May and then they will pause. Once the pause is confirmed, we will see a blast higher just on the optimism that the Fed is out of the way. JPow has been clear that he does not want to start, stop, start, stop so once he pauses, he is done for a few meetings. Remember, bulls don't care about inflation, they care about the Fed's reaction to inflation. 
  • 3 Month Outlook
    • If the Fed pauses soon, then we know that only a natural recession will bring the markets down. The Fed will not manufacture the recession and it will be up to whether inflation can stay back long enough for the consumer to stay strong. The theory here is that inflation is and was ultimately a supply side issue and those issues would be resolved by then. If this is the case, and inflation starts to slightly tick down while the Fed has paused, the market will explode higher as they will anticipate that a major recession will not happen. It will only crash or come down once the consumer has slowed down by the sticky inflation, thus causing an economic recession. 

Bearish Thesis - 

  • 2 Week outlook 
    • The market has been range bound for 2 weeks and the momentum in this rally is starting to stall. There is bearish divergence on the daily chart for QQQ and a bearish PPO crossover, so the technicals are saying this rally is on its last legs and is ready to start trending down. The bulls priced in a pause in the May FOMC meeting, and now it looks like 25 BPS is heavily expected. With that rate hike, the bulls have to delay their delusional fantasy of a summer rate cut. 
  • 1 month outlook 
    • Dip buyers are keeping this market up, so to breakdown and create a trend long enough to last a few weeks, the bears need a major gap down. What could cause this? Well, any horrible earnings from big tech could do it. I am not seeing any macro data in the next 2 weeks that will cause it, so it will need to be from the earnings reports or from the geopolitical spectrum. Maybe the rise of the DXY again?
  • 3 months+ outlook 
    • Regardless of the Fed's decision in May, the data is showing that inflation is sticking. So inflation is showing that it is control, so no matter how the market wants to spin the narrative, if inflation is not dealt with, it will crush the consumer. There is no magic bullet that will get it under control outside of a recession. So bears are playing for the inevitable recession. 

I do not agree with one side of this narrative, but it is important to present all sides of the argument. Over the next few weeks, I will keep building and updating these narratives. 

My Prediction - 

I have been mainly playing tech so I am going to stick with that in my updates below. QQQ has been on a crazy run this year and it will be the reason for the next major move in the SPY, so I want to keep track of that closely.  I am looking for the DXY to rebound sharply with the House Majority Leader McCarthy set to unveil the Republicans demands for agreeing to raise the debt ceiling. This should put a little more faith in the DXY. If the DXY does rebound higher, I am expecting the QQQ to break under 313 support and start another range bound trade from 306 to 313. 
If the market gets strong earnings reports from NFLX and TSLA this week, I think we will see QQQ break the 323 level and ultimately hit 330 as earnings optimism will be in full force. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here:  stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Monday - ECB LaGarde Speaking at 11:00am (DXY implications)
  • Tuesday - Building Permits and Housing Data at 8:30am
  • Wednesday - UK Inflation Report at 2:00am (DXY implications)
  • Wednesday - EU Inflation Report at 5:00am (DXY implications)
  • Thursday - Jobless Claims at 8:30am
  • Friday - US PMI Data at 9:45am

Earnings This Week:
FtsmURhX0A4kPx7.jpeg 252.42 KB

Current Positions and Plays -

  • I am net short on the market with positions in MNQ, QQQ June puts, NEM, GE, NVDA, BX. And I have longer dated calls for KR, CAG, and UUP. 
  • I will look at closing most of my puts this week if we do not show some type of weakness in the market. We have just been range bound for 2 weeks, and I entered roughly in the middle of the range. So I need to see some movement this week in my favor, or I will close out and reset. 

QQQ Technicals - 

  • QQQ Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily are above neutral.
  • QQQ has been trading in a range for 2 weeks. So it is all about 2 levels to see if they hold as support/resistance. 313 is support and 323 is resistance. If either one of those breaks, we will see a nice 5-8 point move in the direction of the break. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $QQQ  - levels 313 (major), 316, 320, 323
  • This is not financial advice
0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 21:57 PM - Apr 02 2023
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - April 3rd, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

SPY had a range of 393 to 409 with a close at 409. No sugar coating this one, it was a bullish breakout through a few key levels. We had a small pullback at a key level to 393 and just took off to break 400 and almost hit 410 in 3 trading days. Why did it move up that violently? No major news until Friday and the PCE data came in slightly under expectations and it was blast off time. Bears are capitulating, bulls are euphoric. Not a great time for a guy holding puts on QQQ. 

So the question is, are we witnessing the start of a much larger, sustainable move to the upside? Let's revisit the bullish and bearish arguments.  

Bullish Thesis - 

  • 2 Week Outlook
    • With inflation coming down, the possibility of a Fed pause coming in a month, a continued strong consumer, and low unemployment currently, it is hard to argue that the conditions currently are favoring the bulls. With the Fed set to pause soon, the inflation fears are starting to settle down so what can bring down the market? Sticky inflation is present, but it is not slowing down the consumer too much. The volume on the most recent rally has been lighter, but that could also bode well for bulls if the money on the sidelines believes that the worst is behind us. 
  • 1 Month Outlook 
    • Inflation is in control so no landing is here! This will be the bullish narrative to allow them to dismiss the hot inflation data. JPow continues to say that 2% is the mandate, and bulls still do not believe him. We are at a sweet spot where the Fed signals when it is pausing regardless of the current inflation reports, while the consumer is strong and unemployment is low. 
  • 3 Month Outlook
    • The no landing sticks, then we know that only a natural recession will bring the markets down. The Fed will not manufacture the recession and it will be up to whether inflation can stay back long enough for the consumer to stay strong. The theory here is that inflation is and was ultimately a supply side issue and those issues would be resolved by then. If this is the case, and inflation starts to slightly tick down while the Fed has paused, the market will explode higher as they will anticipate that a major recession will not happen. It will only crash or come down once the consumer has slowed down by the sticky inflation, thus causing an economic recession. 

Bearish Thesis - 

  • 2 Week outlook 
    • The market has ran way too hard way too fast on some sketchy macro data. This is due for a pullback to retest some key levels (405, 400, 398). Now dip buyers may show up, but we are technically due for a cool off period. OPEC+ latest news on cutting output could push energy prices higher again, which puts cold water on the deflationary argument. 
  • 1 month outlook 
    • Going to be honest here. Bears needs something to break again and/or some bearish data to show up (high CPI) for the dip buyers to back off. Earnings are around the corner so that could usher in the recession fears again.
  • 3 months+ outlook 
    • Regardless of the Fed's decision in May, the data is showing that inflation is sticking. So inflation is showing that it is control, so no matter how the market wants to spin the narrative, if inflation is not dealt with, it will crush the consumer. There is no magic bullet that will get it under control outside of a recession. So bears are playing for the inevitable recession. 

I do not agree with one side of this narrative, but it is important to present all sides of the argument. Over the next few weeks, I will keep building and updating these narratives. 

My Prediction - 

We have a holiday week ahead of us with major data releasing on Friday when the market is closed. I do think we see a drastic pullback very soon in the form of a gap down. With oil rising on the OPEC news, the play to the downside will be in QQQ as participants look to book profits and rotate back into energy. I have quite a bit of puts that took a hit on Thursday and Friday, so I will be looking at trimming some of the shorter time frame ones on any solid pullback. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


Current Positions and Plays -

  • I closed out a few positions last week for some gains but still have a large chunk of puts in QQQ. My current positions are QQQ, MU, AMD, NEM, FEZ, BX puts. I am also holding CAG calls as a recession play. Most of the smaller positions are for 4 to 6 weeks out. The larger positions are for June.  

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour are overbought. 4 hour is just about there and Daily is above neutral.
  • SPY closed above the bear market trendline and the 200MA on the Daily chart.
  • SPY Fibs for Dec 2022 low to 2023 high (current rally) -  Purple fibs on the chart. 
    • 407 is the .236
    • 401 is the .382
    • 391 is the .618 
    • 396 is the .500
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 389 is the .236 line. 407 is the .382 line. Light green fibs on the chart. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 line. 416 is the .236 line. Gold fibs on the chart. 
Screen Shot 2023-04-02 at 9.54.35 PM.png 634.39 KB

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY  - levels 398 (major), 401, 407, 410
  • $QQQ  - levels 313 (major), 316, 320, 323
  • This is not financial advice

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 22:14 PM - Mar 26 2023
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - March 27th, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

SPY had a range of 389 to 402 with a close at 395. We had FOMC and Papa Powell gave us the expected 25 BPS hike and released the Economic Projections. This is where the juicy data was and it showed some interesting data.
Screen Shot 2023-03-26 at 9.27.57 PM.png 200.12 KB

Here are the key things I see:
  • GDP has been lowered in 2023 and 2024
  • Unemployment is expected to go up this year and next from current levels. 
  • PCE Inflation ticked slightly up for 2023 
  • Fed Funds Rate was unchanged at 5.1 for 2023, and that is the first time we have not had a revision upwards in a year. This signals that a pause is coming very very soon. 
  • No Rate cuts for 2023 have been signaled in the projections. 

So the market continues to price in rate cuts in 2023 even after JPow said that is not going to happen. I am honestly sticking with JPow and not trying to side with the market estimates. The market does keep blasting higher in tech so it is clear that this narrative is working.

One thing is for sure, we are in the middle of a transition between inflation to recession theme. The volatility will be wild so keep it light on any trades. Don't pick a side just yet imo. 

My Prediction - 
Play light and fast on any trades. I am building some small positions in longer term put positions in various names including QQQ, AMD, BX and some others.  

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


Current Positions and Plays -

  • I am holding some QQQ, AMD, CAT, FEZ, and BX puts for 30+ days out and are close to ITM. I have 2 sets of puts for QQQ, one is in April that is pretty OTM, and June that is not too far out of the money. I am looking at holding these positions this week. If we get a major move down, I will look to book some profits on them. If we continue upward, I will need to move on from the QQQ April puts and roll that money into the June ones. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily are neutral.
  • SPY closed above the bear market trendline and the 200MA on the Daily chart.
  • SPY Fibs for Dec 2022 low to 2023 high (current rally) -  Purple fibs on the chart. 
    • 401 is the .382
    • 391 is the .618 
    • 396 is the .500
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 389 is the .236 line. 407 is the .382 line. Light green fibs on the chart. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 line. 416 is the .236 line. Gold fibs on the chart. 
Screen Shot 2023-03-26 at 10.09.47 PM.png 631.02 KB

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY  - levels 390 (major), 393, 396, 398, 401
  • $QQQ  - levels 306, 308, 311, 313 (major), 318
  • This is not financial advice
0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 21:56 PM - Mar 19 2023
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - March 20th, 2023

FOMC Preview - 

SPY had a range of 396 to 380 with a close at 390. It was another wild week with major divergence happening from the SPY and QQQ. There are so many mixed signals right now in the market that a major in depth preview is not needed. So I am going to keep this pretty simple and give you 4 scenarios to look out for from FOMC. We all need to wait for JPow on Wednesday and see what he says at FOMC. If you must play before then, keep the plays light and fast. Scalp like your account is on the brink of death and you will be ok. We got banks blowing up and then getting rescued, tech catching a bid like its unlimited QE again, crypto ripping up like it is a legit safehaven, Gold moving like the world is about to end, and Europe looks like the most sensible central bank. It is chaos. 

Here are the 4 FOMC Scenarios I am looking for on FOMC. Shout-out to @homelessdaytrader on the Discord I am in for providing 3 of these. 

  • Option 1 Rate cut - JPow is very scared. Bullish results in stocks. QQQ up 10% in 1 day.
  • Option 2 Rate pause - JPow is scared. Bullish. QQQ up 5%.
  • Option 3 25bps hike = JPow is probably scared, but doesn't want others to know. Bearish. QQQ up 1% then reverses to go down 5%.
  • Option 4 JPow raises rates by 50 and walks up to the mic and says "LaGarde won't outdue me. We won the revolutionary war and carried Europe's ass in the World Wars. No further questions." And walks off. QQQ goes down 15% 

I would love nothing more than Option 4 to play out. 

My Prediction - 

I called out NEM as a solid play and it exploded up. I took profit on this way too early, but a nice win regardless. This week I am going to be looking at some consumer staples, possibly Pepsi, Conagra, McDonalds, or Wal-Mart. These names are slightly down but should fair well in the recession theme. I am not in a hurry to enter any of them, but I will keep an eye on them. 

I will keep my scalps small and. my stops tight heading into Wednesday's big FOMC meeting. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


Current Positions and Plays -

  • I am holding some QQQ and AMD puts for mid April.  

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily are neutral.
  • SPY broke below the bear market trendline and the 200MA on the Daily chart.
  • SPY Fibs for Dec 2022 low to 2023 high (current rally) -  Purple fibs on the chart. 
    • 401 is the .382
    • 391 is the .618 
    • 396 is the .500
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 389 is the .236 line. 407 is the .382 line. Light green fibs on the chart. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 line. 416 is the .236 line. Gold fibs on the chart. 

Screen Shot 2023-03-19 at 9.52.27 PM.png 702.37 KB

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY  - levels 383, 385, 390 (major), 393, 396
  • $QQQ  - levels 300, 303, 306, 308, 311
  • NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES and NQ futures. 
  • This is not financial advice
0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 21:07 PM - Mar 12 2023
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - March 13th, 2023

UPDATE - Fed Has Released the Following Statements on the SIVB Situation

These came out after my preview was done.
federalreserve.gov/newsevents/...
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312b.htm

TLDR - If you are a bank and are doing poor risk management, we will shut you down and make sure the depositers are made whole. Historical...


Last Week Recap - 

What a week... SPY went to a high of 407 to 384. That is a massive range and SPY was actually trading at 401 on Thursday morning. So effectively, we saw a 17 point drop in 2 days as we closed near the lows of the week on Friday. So what happened?

Jerome Powell testified in front of Congress and we saw the hawk come back out. 50 BPS is now back on the table and the Fedswaps actually have it favored above 25 BPS. We also had nonfarm payroll data releasing on Friday, and it came in pretty bullish for the inflation trade. Lower wage rate, and higher unemployment gives a tip to the Fed that their actions may start to be working and thus they can back off some. So with that data, why didn't we blast higher? We had a black swan event. 

Silicon Valley Bank had a bank run. They announced they were looking at raising $2billion and that spooked customers and immediately triggered a bank run. The stock plummeted and the bank is now under FDIC control. This has caused actual fear in the markets that is this a systemic issue or a one off problem. I am no banking expert, nor do I invest in the financial sector so I am going to let the chips fall as they may. There are a lot of theories floating around, and I think 99% of them get debunked by midweek. But... the fear is real and that fear can stick around in the back of people's minds for awhile. So did we just shift into the recession theme?

Let's move on to the bullish and bearish thesis section to see what lies ahead. 

Bearish Thesis - 

  • 2 Week outlook 
    • Bears got a small "something is going to break" event last week with SIVB's bankrun. Now with those fears present, the market took a pretty emphatic move lower. We have CPI and retail sales this week, and FOMC is in two weeks. The technicals also show SPY back under the bear market trendline. With the SIVB fear present, and those major data releases upcoming, the bears look to be back in control. 
  • 1 month outlook 
    • The FOMC meeting now becomes an even more critical meeting. 50 BPS is back on the table and it appears the Fed's policies maybe starting to seeing its impact on the economy. However, it is not slowing inflation down which is the primary enemy. So JPow can get away with one more 50 BPS hike here and then resort back to the 25BPS hikes for future meetings.
      If we get an economic projection of the Fed funds rate over 550 BPS,. This should cause a move back to SPY 380 as long as JPow maintains his 2% inflation mandate stance in the presser. 
  • 3 months+ outlook 
    • Regardless of the Fed's decision in March, the data is showing that inflation is not only sticking, but is also rising again. So inflation is showing that it is control, so no matter how the market wants to spin the narrative, if inflation is not dealt with, it will crush the consumer. There is no magic bullet that will get it under control outside of a recession. So bears are playing for the inevitable recession. (Same as last week)

Bullish Thesis - 

  • 2 Week Outlook
    • Something broke in the economy and that something was SIVB. But... is this a systemic issue or a one off? If the SIVB issues get worked out via a govt. bailout or a private acquisition, the market will look to regain the 390 support and retest the bear market trendline. CPI is on Tuesday, so if that data comes in cooler, we are squeezing all the way until FOMC. What a shift a few days can make where the bulls are now relying on data to save them. Now if SIVB, does not get a timely resolution, the market may react negatively to this. However, SVIB failing could signal the Fed to only do 25 BPS hike in the next FOMC meeting and start the discussion of pausing in the economic projections.  
  • 1 Month Outlook 
    • SIVB be damned, the jobs data gave the Fed a possible soft landing scenario. Low wage rate increase (no wage spiral) and higher unemployment (softening of labor conditions). Inflation is in control so no landing is here! This will be the bullish narrative to allow them to dismiss the hot inflation data. Even if JPow says that 2% is the mandate in the March FOMC meeting, bulls will not believe him due to SIVB breaking. He is closer to pausing rates and then he will just live with the results for a year with the rates at 5 to 5.25%. This will create a sweet spot where the Fed signals when it is pausing regardless of the current inflation reports, while the consumer is strong and unemployment is low.
  • 3 Month Outlook
    • The no landing sticks, then we know that only a natural recession will bring the markets down. The Fed will not manufacture the recession and it will be up to whether inflation can stay back long enough for the consumer to stay strong. The theory here is that inflation is and was ultimately a supply side issue and those issues would be resolved by then. If this is the case, and inflation starts to slightly tick down while the Fed has paused, the market will explode higher as they will anticipate that a major recession will not happen. It will only crash or come down once the consumer has slowed down by the sticky inflation, thus causing an economic recession. (same as last week)

I do not agree with one side of this narrative, but it is important to present all sides of the argument. Over the next few weeks, I will keep building and updating these narratives. 

My Prediction - 

I was wrong last week as we did not see a sustainable pop after the pullback. I got caught holding longs, but my stops kicked in and allowed me to save a green week. 

We have an eventful week ahead. CPI is Tuesday, Retail sales is Wednesday, ECB Rate hike decision is Thursday and the sneaky UoM Sentiment report is Friday. All while, everyone is awaiting the fallout from the SIVB crisis. 

If the CPI data comes in hot, does that put 50 BPS hike back on the table? Does the Fed even consider 50 BPS again since the banking sector is a bit shaky right now. 

I am looking for a rebound on the SIVB situation getting resolved. CPI being Tuesday, so I anticipate some de-risking on Monday. There is no real point to playing any bigger trades until that data is presented. Retail sales on Wednesday will be critical for us to determine how far off is the recession, and if the consumer is still as strong as it has shown in previous months. 

So the play I am looking at getting into is a gold miner, NEM. With risk off getting more attention, Gold looks to be catching a bid. So I will grab some calls for June sometime this week. 
I will continue to scalp the indicies for small plays this week. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here. No Fed Speakers this week. They are in a blackout period:  stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Monday - Nothing major
  • Tuesday -CPI at 8:30am
  • Wednesday - Retail Sales at 8:30am
  • Wednesday - PPI Data at 8:30am
  • Wednesday - Business Inventories at 10:00am
  • Thursday - Building Permits at 8:30am
  • Thursday - Import/Export Data at 8:30am
  • Thursday - EU Interest Rate Decision at 9:15am (DXY implications) 
  • Friday - UoM Sentiment at 10am (sneaky report)

Current Positions and Plays -

  • I am all cash and looking at scalping and entering some longer dated calls for Gold miners. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, and 4 hour are oversold. Daily is close to oversold.
  • SPY broke below the bear market trendline and the 200MA on the Daily chart.
  • SPY Fibs for Dec 2022 low to 2023 high (current rally) -  Purple fibs on the chart. 
    • 401 is the .382
    • 391 is the .618 
    • 396 is the .500
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 389 is the .236 line. 407 is the .382 line. Light green fibs on the chart. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 line. 416 is the .236 line. Gold fibs on the chart. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY  - levels 383, 385, 390 (major), 393, 396
  • $QQQ  - levels 285, 288, 290 (major), 293, 296
  • NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES and NQ futures. 
  • This is not financial advice
0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 21:28 PM - Mar 05 2023
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - March 6th, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

SPY had a weekly range of 392 to 404, closing just above 404. It was a wild week with the market starting off with a bounce, and then by Thursday in premarket, SPY was testing the 200 Daily Moving Average near 393. Once it tested it, the buyers stepped and blasted us higher to 404. 

I predicted a bounce last week, but unfortunately I got caught being married to the bearish side midweek. Once we got a revision in the wage data on Thursday morning, I went overly bearish and it cost me. The power of the 200 Moving Day Average was way stronger than that data. Lesson learned, and we move forward. 

I believe I have spotted the missing link in my previews and I will talk more about that in my prediction section. 

Let's move on to the bullish and bearish thesis section to see what lies ahead. 

Bearish Thesis - 

  • 2 Week outlook 
    • We blasted higher last week, but we had more bearish data come out with a massive revision up on the wage rate data. However, that data was not enough to hold back the buyers from the 200 MA bounce. Technicals support a small pullback here back to 400 or even 398, but it appears that will be the extent of it barring a major economic data update. Maybe from the jobs data on Friday? 
  • 1 month outlook 
    • This is all about the FOMC meeting in March. If we get an economic projection of the Fed funds rate over 550 BPS, then that will signal to the market that they were again way too premature on predicting a rate pause or cut to be within the next 2 meetings. This should cause a move back to SPY 380 as long as JPow maintains his 2% inflation mandate stance in the presser. (Same as last week)
  • 3 months+ outlook 
    • Regardless of the Fed's decision in March, the data is showing that inflation is not only sticking, but is also rising again. So inflation is showing that it is control, so no matter how the market wants to spin the narrative, if inflation is not dealt with, it will crush the consumer. There is no magic bullet that will get it under control outside of a recession. So bears are playing for the inevitable recession. (Same as last week)

Bullish Thesis - 

  • 2 Week Outlook
    • Yes, the fundamental data is bearish, but the market is holding up strongly. We are due for a small pullback from the technical standpoint, but that dip should be bought up pretty fast with the 200MA provided firm support. There is a landmine on Friday with the jobs data, but again the fundamental data has not seemed to be slowing the market down this year. The Fed is losing credibility by the day and that is short term bullish. 
  • 1 Month Outlook 
    • Inflation is in control so no landing is here! This will be the bullish narrative to allow them to dismiss the hot inflation data. Even if JPow says that 2% is the mandate in the March FOMC meeting, bulls will not believe him. He is closer to pausing rates and then he will just live with the results for a year with the rates at 5 to 5.25%. This will create a sweet spot where the Fed signals when it is pausing regardless of the current inflation reports, while the consumer is strong and unemployment is low. (same as last week)
  • 3 Month Outlook
    • The no landing sticks, then we know that only a natural recession will bring the markets down. The Fed will not manufacture the recession and it will be up to whether inflation can stay back long enough for the consumer to stay strong. The theory here is that inflation is and was ultimately a supply side issue and those issues would be resolved by then. If this is the case, and inflation starts to slightly tick down while the Fed has paused, the market will explode higher as they will anticipate that a major recession will not happen. It will only crash or come down once the consumer has slowed down by the sticky inflation, thus causing an economic recession. (same as last week)

I do not agree with one side of this narrative, but it is important to present all sides of the argument. Over the next few weeks, I will keep building and updating these narratives. 

My Prediction - 

So let me first present my theory of what is currently happening with why the market is not reacting to fundamental data like last year. 

Volume is now hiding in the option chains. So there are now 3 phases to the market currently. Technicals, fundamentals and now mechanics. They are using the mechanics to counter the fundamental data.

I believe TSLA cracked the mechanics code 4 years ago.

TSLA has always trumped the fundamental case against it. But there was always these crazy call options weekly that tended to push the stock up. The buyer was labeled the Tesla whale.
It was clearly successful and as Tesla continued to workout their issues and continue the hype train, the stock just went crazy. I think this strategy is now being implored in a more broader scope to hold up stocks until fundamental data improves.
Mechanics are working in overdrive to achieve this. Which is why bad news is not creating the moves like last year. The 0DTE changes helped fuel this.

So with that out of the way, I am looking for a pullback before the JPow testimony on Tuesday, and then buyers should step in very fast as the event is a nothing burger. These hearings will make you hate the government officials even more. They all tend to use their time to say how the other party is causing the current issues in the economy and then ask JPow if he agrees. He then simply responds with a "I cannot comment on those matters." The main fear here will be his opening remarks, once those are done, the market should rebound from any dip that may have occurred. 

I will be scalping small wins or losses all week. We have major data on Friday with the nonfarm payrolls, so I will be playing it light this week. So to recap, looking for a pullback, and then a buy the dip moment to push us higher heading into Friday's report. 


Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here. We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week:  stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Monday - Factory Orders at 10:00am
  • Tuesday - JPow Hearing at 10:00am
  • Tuesday - TIPP Economic Optimism at 10:00am
  • Wednesday - EU LaGarde Speech at 5:00am (DXY Implications)
  • Wednesday - EU GDP and Employment Change at 5:00am
  • Wednesday - ADP Employment Change at 8:15am
  • Wednesday - Import and Export Data at 8:30am
  • Wednesday - JOLTS Report at 10:00am
  • Wednesday - JPow Hearing at 10:00am
  • Wednesday - ISM Man PMI at 10:00am
  • Thursday - Nothing major 
  • Friday - US Nonfarm Payrolls - 8:30am (the report of the week)

Current Positions and Plays -

  • I am holding a few QQQ puts for Friday. I will hold these into JPow's hearing on Tuesday to see some de-risk. I am looking at scalping with a small amount this week.

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are overbought. 4 hour and daily are neutral.
  • SPY is still above the bear market trendline and the 200MA on the Daily chart.
  • SPY Fibs for Dec 2022 low to 2023 high (current rally) -  Purple fibs on the chart. 407 is the resistance ahead and 401 is support. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 389 is the .236 line. 407 is the .382 line. Light green fibs on the chart. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 line. 416 is the .236 line. Gold fibs on the chart. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY  - levels 390 (major), 393, 396, 400, 405, 407 (major), 410
  • $QQQ  - levels 290 (major), 293, 296, 298.50, 300, 303, 306, 310
  • NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES and NQ futures. 
  • This is not financial advice

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 21:12 PM - Feb 26 2023
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - February 27th, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

SPY had a weekly range of 404 to 393, closing just above 396. This was a week where the bears finally flexed some muscle and pushed the SPY under some key levels. The macro data came in hotter than expected on the inflation front with the PCE release on Friday. Also GDP came in under expectations on the Q4 revision. So that puts CPI, PPI, PCE all coming in hotter in January while GDP got revised lower. That was clean sweep for macro data for the bears in February.

So does the recent macro data open the door for the next leg lower in this bear market? Let's breakdown that question below by visiting the bullish and bearish arguments in a 2 week, 1 month and 3 month outlook. 

Bearish Thesis - 

  • 2 Week outlook 
    • The inflation data we got the past few weeks tells the market that the current rally was completely off base. So there should be a correction back to at least SPY 390 in the near term. This would put us right back in the chop zone that we were in prior to the FOMC February meeting. 
  • 1 month outlook 
    • This is all about the FOMC meeting in March. If we get a economic projection of the Fed funds rate over 550 BPS, then that will signal to the market that they were again way too premature on predicting a rate pause or cut to be within the next 2 meetings. This should cause a move back to SPY 380 as long as JPow maintains his 2% inflation mandate stance in the presser. 
  • 3 months+ outlook 
    • Regardless of the Fed's decision in March, the data is showing that inflation is not only sticking, but is also rising again. So inflation is showing that it is control, so no matter how the market wants to spin the narrative, if inflation is not dealt with, it will crush the consumer. There is no magic bullet that will get it under control outside of a recession. So bears are playing for the inevitable recession. 

Bullish Thesis - 

  • 2 Week Outlook
    • Yes, inflation data came in hotter than expected, however QQQ did not break under its 200 day SMA and the charts are looking slightly oversold on the shorter timeframes. With no major economic data this week, a bounce is likely to happen at the current support. 
  • 1 Month Outlook 
    • Inflation is in control so no landing is here! This will be the bullish narrative to allow them to dismiss the hot inflation data. Even if JPow says that 2% is the mandate in the March FOMC meeting, bulls will not believe him. He is closer to pausing rates and then he will just live with the results for a year with the rates at 5 to 5.25%. This will create a sweet spot where the Fed signals when it is pausing regardless of the current inflation reports, while the consumer is strong and unemployment is low. 
  • 3 Month Outlook
    • The no landing sticks, then we know that only a natural recession will bring the markets down. The Fed will not manufacture the recession and it will be up to whether inflation can stay back long enough for the consumer to stay strong. The theory here is that inflation is and was ultimately a supply side issue and those issues would be resolved by then. If this is the case, and inflation starts to slightly tick down while the Fed has paused, the market will explode higher as they will anticipate that a major recession will not happen. It will only crash or come down once the consumer has slowed down by the sticky inflation, thus causing an economic recession. 

I do not agree with one side of this narrative, but it is important to present all sides of the argument. Over the next few weeks, I will keep building and updating these narratives. 

My Prediction - 

We do see a bounce at support for SPY to ultimately get us back over 400. I am looking for that bounce this week. The bulls have the stronger 2 week outlook imo, while the bears have the stronger 1 month outlook. So I am playing the potential bounce for the next 2 weeks and looking at playing it very cautious with tight stops. 


Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here. We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week:  stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Monday - EU Economic Statement at 5am (DXY implications)
  • Monday - Durable Goods Orders at 8:30am
  • Monday - Dallas Fed Man Index at 10:30a
  • Tuesday - Retail and Wholesale Inventories at 8:30am
  • Tuesday - Chicago PMI at 9:45am
  • Tuesday - Consumer Confidence at 10am
  • Wednesday - SP PMI at 9:45am
  • Wednesday - ISM Man PMI at 10:00am
  • Thursday - EU's Inflation Report at 5:00am (DXY implications)
  • Friday - SP and Non-Man PMI at 9:45 and 10am

Current Positions and Plays -

  • I am holding 1 NQ long. Looking at scalping this all the way up if we start to rally. I will close it out ahead of the data releases each day. I am much better at reacting to data, then predicting data. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are neutral. 4 hour is close to oversold on RSI but the MACD is curling down. Daily chart is at neutral on the RSI but MACD is curling down.  
  • SPY has closed under its 50 MA average but is still above the bear market trendline and the 200MA on the Daily chart.
  • SPY Fibs for Dec 2022 low to 2023 high (current rally) - We are right in the golden zone for a bounce at the 50 line and 61.8 line. Purple fibs on the chart. Those levels are highlighted in gold. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 389 is the .236 line. 407 is the .382 line. Light green fibs on the chart. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 line. 416 is the .236 line. Gold fibs on the chart. 

Screen Shot 2023-02-26 at 9.30.17 PM.png 722.8 KB

Percentages from the Highs

  • SPY is approximately -18% (479 HIGH)
  • QQQ is approximately -28% (408 HIGH)
  • DJX is approximately -11% (369 HIGH)
  • IWM is approximately -24% (244 HIGH)

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY  - levels 390 (major), 393, 396, 400, 405, 407 (major)
  • $QQQ  - levels 290 (major), 293, 296, 298.50, 300
  • NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES and NQ futures. 
  • This is not financial advice
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Mentions: SPY QQQ
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 21:35 PM - Feb 12 2023
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - February 13th, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

SPY had a weekly range of 405 to 416, closing near 408. Another wild week that saw both bulls and bears eat pies in the face. JPow's speech on Tuesday sparked a nice pop and then it immediately got faded back down. Only to then recover again at the close on Tuesday. But from Wednesday until the close of the week, we saw continued selling. I got caught in holding longs thinking we would see some CPI optimism going into next week. That proved to be a big mistake as I completely missed two things, the bond market believing more rate hikes were coming, and the projections for the upcoming CPI came in much hotter than last months. 

We have a lot of important data releasing this week. CPI will get the most attention, but I am more focused on the retail sales data on Wednesday. The CPI reading is expected to be a little hotter than last months, and plays into the sticky inflation narrative. Retail sales, however could hurt the soft landing narrative if they come in cool. This could be the shift of the narrative to recession fears. 

My Prediction - 

All eyes will be on the CPI report early in the week, but I do believe that could be a minor impact on the next trend. I am more interested in the retail sales data on Wednesday to show if the consumer is still showing signs of weakness. I will be squarely focused on the TNX and DXY this week. If those two can maintain their recent strength, there should be a sell off in tech. The 200 Daily SMA for QQQ is 291 and I expect us to test that before a possible bounce. 


Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


Current Positions and Plays -

  • I am holding 2 NQ shorts. Looking at exiting these on Monday or Tuesday before CPI. I will then start scalping until the retail data comes out on Wednesday. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily charts are near or at neutral. 
  • SPY has broken above its 200 MA average and the bear market trendline on the Daily chart.
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 407 is the .382 line. Next line higher is 421 which is the .500 line.
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - We tested and rejected 418 which was the .236. Next line below is 380. 

Percentages from the Highs

  • SPY is approximately -15% (479 HIGH)
  • QQQ is approximately -25% (408 HIGH)
  • DJX is approximately -8% (369 HIGH)
  • IWM is approximately -20% (244 HIGH)

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 396, 400, 405, 407 (major), 410, 413, 415, 418 (major)
  • NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES and NQ futures. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 22:15 PM - Feb 05 2023
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - February 6th, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

SPY had a weekly range of 400 to 418, closing near 412. It was a crazy week with major events happening all over the place, including FOMC and AAPL earnings. Jerome Powell came in very tame in his demeanor and the bulls took that as an indicator that the Fed pain is starting to subside. During his speech on Wednesday, the market blasted higher and set the stage for the soft landing to carry the momentum upward for a few more weeks. 

AAPL, AMZN, and GOOG all released earnings on Thursday in afterhours. The earnings were not great, and the market seemed to handle the reports pretty well in afterhours. Friday in premarket brought a very hot jobs report that sent the market down to test under 411, but the dip was quickly bought up on Friday. 

The internet is filled with reviews of earnings and FOMC from last week, but I want to concentrate on the jobs report for a moment. One bullish note for the jobs data was that wage rates stayed the same and unemployment ticked lower. The wage data  being flat helps ease the inflation fears for the upcoming CPI report on 02/14. However, the jobs number came in scorching hot (comically hot honestly) at +500k. That helps the DXY gain some momentum which is a bearish sign for tech and commodities. So the jobs report may fuel the next pullback if the DXY can keep the upward momentum it grabbed on Friday. 

My Prediction - 

The market is pretty frothy up here and is ripe for a technical pullback. I am going to be looking at the DXY and seeing if it can hold 103 on Monday. I think there is a chance that we get a vey quick pullback on Monday and part of Tuesday where SPY retests 407. That would clear up some of the technicals and allow for any dip buyers to feel more comfortable to enter. 

I believe the catalyst for the dip buying will be the JPow event on Tuesday turning into a nonevent and the dip buyers show up in full force again. This time they will run the market up to 420 before the CPI report. If we get there before next week, then we will consolidate and slowly grind up. 

As a bear, I hate typing this, but it is what it is. There is no major economic events this week that can cause much fear outside of JPow completely flipping his dovish stance on Tuesday.  He is not going to do that in my opinion with FOMC only being 6 days ago. That would kill all credibility he has left. 


Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here. We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week:  stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Monday - Nothing major
  • Tuesday - US Balance of Trade at 8:30am
  • Tuesday - JPow speech at 12:40pm
  • Tuesday - CMG earnings in afterhours
  • Wednesday - A lot of Fed Speakers throughout the day
  • Wednesday - UBER earnings in premarket and DIS Earnings in Afterhours
  • Thursday - No major economic data (weekly jobless claims but not major)
  • Friday - UK GDP at 2:00am (DXY implications/ global recession fears)
  • Friday - UoM Consumer at 10am

Current Positions and Plays -

  • All cash for now. 
  • I am sticking with daily scalps for the time being. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are neutral. 4 hour and Daily charts are close to overbought. 
  • SPY has broken above its 200 MA average and the bear market trendline on the Daily chart.
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 407 is the .382 line. Next line higher is 421 which is the .500 line.
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - We tested and rejected 418 which was the .236. Next line below is 380. 

Percentages from the Highs

  • SPY is approximately -15% (479 HIGH)
  • QQQ is approximately -25% (408 HIGH)
  • DJX is approximately -8% (369 HIGH)
  • IWM is approximately -20% (244 HIGH)

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 407 (major), 410, 413, 415, 418 (major)
  • NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES futures. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 22:10 PM - Feb 05 2023
by: Maverick

Stock Market - Week Ahead: Feb 6, 2023 - SPY 400-420 range; Fed speakers everywhere; macro thoughts.

Economic Calendar
  • Monday: Nothing.
  • Tuesday:  JPow in the wild @ 1240; Fed Barr @ 1400; Consumer Credit @ 1500
  • Wednesday:  Fed spakers: Cook @ 0930, Bostic & Barr @ 1000, Kashkari @ 1230 (one to watch), Waller @ 1345
  • Thursday:  Jobless claims @ 0830
  • Friday: UMICH Inflation Expectations @ 1000, Waller @ 1230, Harker @ 4pm

Earnings Calendar
  • Wednesday: DIS after hours only one of interest to me this week

Market Thoughts:

Technicals (Latest):
  • SPY levels:  400, 408, 410, 416, 420
  • 200 MA: 394

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: I’m holding nothing.  I scalped some NQ this evening.
  • I would happily go short QQQ at 308 and certainly 313
  • I’ll be watching the technical conditions to see when they get worked out before going long
  • I will stay out of the way on Wednesday - Fed speakers all day.

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 21:33 PM - Jan 29 2023
by: Maverick

Stock Market - Week Ahead: January 30, 2023 - SPY 390-410 range; major data, earnings, and JPow 😱

⚠️This week is absolutely bonkers with all the data that’s coming out.  Buckle up and keep it light. ⚠️

Economic Calendar
  • Monday: Nothing.
  • Tuesday:  Chicago PMI @ 0945, Consumer Confidence @ 10am
  • Wednesday: ADP @ 0815, NFCI @ 0830, PMI - Manufacturing @ 0945, JOLTS @ 1000, FOMC @ 1400, JPOW @ 1430 ⚠️
  • Thursday:  Jobless claims @ 0830, Factory Orders @ 1000 
  • Friday: NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls & Wages) @ 0830, PMI Services @ 0945, ISM @ 1000

Earnings Calendar
  • Monday: Nothing.
  • Tuesday: XOM, MCD, UPS premarket; AMD, SNAP afterhours
  • Wednesday: META afterhours
  • Thursday: AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, the list goes on and on in afterhours ⚠️
  • Friday: 

Market Thoughts:

Technicals (Latest):
  • SPY levels:  393, 396, 400, 408, 410, 416
  • 200 MA: 395

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: I’m holding nothing.
  • I’m looking at 408-410 to go short ES or NQ - as long as there’s no earnings surprises.  I’ll use ES options if before Thursday; and normal ES/NQ if after AAPL earnings
  • I expect I’ll be short at whatever price we’re at after AAPL earnings on Thursday night
  • Only risk will be NFP on Friday - but I’m guessing it’s around expectations (they nailed it last time), so +200k

QQQ, daily -- note the RSI peaks.
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 22:22 PM - Jan 22 2023
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - January 23rd, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

SPY had a weekly range of 387 to 400, closing near 396. The market absorbed the poor retail numbers and had a nice pullback from 400 to 388 on Wednesday to Thursday. It then had a monster rally on Friday to close near 396 on Monthly options expiration. Netflix had ok earnings and pretty good subscriber growth numbers. So how much of the rally was options magic or how much of the rally was actually merited? Time will tell this week. 

The bulls still have a nice narrative building here with inflation coming down, unemployment staying low, and Fed slowing rate hikes. But the retail data from last week did show that the consumer is slowing their spending. That is a key element to the soft landing narrative. There is a lot of front loading happening here by the bulls, but it may spark a continued move for weeks to come. 

The bears recession argument got some more support with the poor December retail sales as well as all the Fed Speakers still signaling that no rate hike cut was imminent. 
I will keep adding this point in all my previews: 
If the market is strong, unemployment is low, inflation is falling, then why would the Fed pause here? IF anything they can keep pounding QT and lower the balance sheet without much fear of the market stumbling. 

So, here we sit again for the second week in a row near the bear market line of rejection and the 200 Daily moving Average. Do we reject here, or breakthrough?

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here:  stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Blackout Period for the Fed until FOMC on Feb 1st. 
  • Monday - EU LaGarde Speech at 12:45PM (DXY implications)
  • Tuesday - US PMI at 9:45am
  • Tuesday - MSFT Earnings in Afterhours
  • Wednesday - No Major Economic Data
  • Wednesday - BA and T Earnings in Premarket
  • Wednesday - TSLA Earnings in Afterhours
  • Thursday - AAL, LUV, and MC in premarket
  • Thursday - INTC and V earnings in after-hours
  • Thursday - US GDP at 8:30am
  • Friday - PCE Data at 8:30am
  • Friday - UoM Consumer at 10am

My Prediction - 

This is going to sound like a repeat from last week, but I honestly think we have the same setup. Wait for a pullback and then enter long for a rally. Microsoft earnings are the main event this week, so that can be the cause of the pullback, or the resumption of the uptrend based on the results. I do not think there is much of a market wide bearish case for TSLA’s earnings. The name has been beaten up so badly already, that there is not much more for bears to take from the earnings imo. 

The GDP and PCE data at the end of the week are minor and should not cause much of a market reaction. I am a bear at heart, but this is looking like more bullish momentum heading into FOMC next week as long as MSFT’s earnings are not abysmal. I still have a rally target for 430 for this run. It may take a few weeks/months. 

Though I am long term bearish, short term bullish, I will not be swinging any core positions. I am having a lot of success scalping the directions each day, so I am going to stick with that. 

Current Positions and Plays -

  • I scalped all week long and played the pullback nicely. My goal is to net 20 ES points a day in scalps, and I was able to do that for the week. 
  • I am sticking with daily scalps for the time being. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min is close to overbought.  1 hour, 4 hour, and Daily charts are a little higher than neutral. 
  • SPY is right at its 200 MA average and near the bear market trendline on the Daily chart.
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. We tested this line and it ultimately held as support. I do not see us testing 390 again until the conclusion of this bear market rally. 407 is the next Fib line higher. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. The next level is 418.

Percentages from the Highs

  • SPY is approximately -20% (479 HIGH)
  • QQQ is approximately -35% (408 HIGH)
  • DJX is approximately -10% (369 HIGH)
  • IWM is approximately -30% (244 HIGH)

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 390 (major) > 393 > 396 >  398 > 400 > 403 > 410 (major)
  • NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES futures. 
  • This is not financial advice
0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 19:45 PM - Jan 22 2023
by: Maverick

Stock Market - Week Ahead: January 23, 2023 - SPY 393/405 range; bulls in charge.

Economic Calendar
  • Monday: Nothing.
  • Tuesday:  PMI Services @ 0945
  • Wednesday: Nothing.
  • Thursday:  Jobless claims, Goods, GDP, Chicago data @ 0830
  • Friday: PCE, Spending @ 0830, UMich 10am (!!)

Earnings Calendar
  • Tuesday: Some industrials in premarket; MSFT in afterhours (!!)
  • Wednesday: TSLA afterhours
  • Thursday: Mastercard premarket, Visa afterhours
  • Friday: Oil companies premarket

Market Thoughts:
  • Last week:  SPY was 387-400 - my prediction was 390-402 — not bad!  I had a nice week overall, I ticked up against last week.  I’ve been trading almost exclusively ES and NQ.  They’re easier to trade - and hod - than SPX options, so far.  I missed out on untold amounts of money by calling the move, but not holding through it (typically being early and then jumping out at first sign of profit).  I’ve got to believe in the trades more to optimize my profit.
  • Economic Calendar:  Bulls have a clear run until Thursday morning.  Only thing they’ll battle is technicals at 400, 405.  Friday with PCE + UMich will make the market dance.
  • Earnings: MSFT could be a trend setter -  in either direction.  I wouldn’t be caught holding a position into those earnings, but just wait to see what they say.  It’s likely to be bullish event with the layoffs (good for profit), but any strong warnings could go a long ways. TSLA I don’t think matters for bears, will only help bulls. 
  • The move on Friday for SPY/QQQ was impressive, BUT….it was a mechanical day (OpEx for January) and low volume Friday as always.  It was a bull’s dream.  It skipped right over some lines that are normally respected and at 396 (close), it may have to pay its respects to get over that.  We could see a pullback to 393 before it charges on.  If it doesn’t and just heads to 400 again, I won’t be surprised at all.
  • After we see if 396 is is easy to take down - or is tough resistance - then I’m on the bull train for Mon & Tuesday.  The rest of the week, will be data dependent.
  • SPY 396 is also the 200MA
  • SPY range this week (guess): 393 - 405
  • Overall, I remain bearish for the year.  
  • For the short-term however, we’re going into earnings season, there will be more layoffs announced which are good - for now - for companies.  The unemployment numbers haven’t spiked yet and inflation is coming down — so the sentiment strongly favors the bulls. 
  • I’m looking for a run to SPY 420-430 before it gets smacked down hard by rising unemployment and no chance of the Fed cutting rates until end of year at earliest.  New SPY lows are coming

Technicals (Latest):
  • SPY levels:  390, 396, 400, 405
  • 200 MA: 396.02

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: I’m holding nothing.  I scalped 20 points out of NQ shortly after the open.
  • I’m looking to see what SPY 396 does.
  • If it goes back to 393 I’ll go long NQ.
  • If it jumps right over it to 397, I’ll go long NQ.
  • I’ll be out ahead of MSFT, then decide next move after that.  PCE, same plan.

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 22:42 PM - Jan 16 2023
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - January 16th, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

SPY had a weekly range of 386 to 399, closing near the highs of the week. The CPI report came in at expectations and the market held all of its gains that it frontloaded heading into the report. 

The bulls have a nice narrative building here with inflation coming down, unemployment staying low, Fed slowing rate hikes, and consumer still somewhat strong. This is creating the goldilocks or soft landing narrative that is not too far fetch. The bulls of course take this theory one step further by saying all this means the Fed will pause or cut rates in a few months. 

The bears argument is centered around a possible recession and notion that the Fed is not looking at cutting rate hikes anytime soon. If the market is strong, unemployment is low, inflation is falling, then why would the Fed pause here? IF anything they can keep pounding QT and lower the balance sheet without much fear of the market stumbling. 

So, here we sit near the bear market line of rejection and the 200 Daily moving Average. Do we reject here, or breakthrough? There is an interesting battle happening here.

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • A lot of Fed Speakers this week. Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Monday - Holiday
  • Tuesday - GS and MS earnings in premarket
  • Tuesday -NY Manufacturing Index at 8:30
  • Tuesday - Williams Speech at 3pm
  • Wednesday - UK/EU Inflation Reports at 2am
  • Wednesday - US PPI at 8:30am
  • Wednesday - Retail Sales at 8:30am
  • Thursday - LaGarde Speech at 5:30am
  • Thursday - Housing Data at 8:30am
  • Thursday - NFLX earnings afterhours
  • Friday - Nothing major

My Prediction - 

I am going to keep this short and simple. I believe we see a pullback to 393 at some point early this week, possibly 390. Bears will feel emboldened as that would be a rejection at the bear market trendline, and then we start to reverse course heading into the major tech earnings next week. I imagine a lot of Fed officials will maintain the hawkish rhetoric, but it will have little impact as the bulls know that 25 BPS hike for February is heavily favored to happen. 

Ultimately, I think the rally after the pullback could get as high as 430. There is a lot of bullish sentiment out there, and I don't see anything slowing that down.

Yet another week to keep it light and let the major reports dictate the trend.

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I closed out my core puts early in the week for a nice gain. I did do a strangle on CPI and got walloped on it. I ended up scalping my way back green for the week. 
  • I am sticking with daily scalps for the time being. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour and 4 hour are close to overbought.  Daily chart is neutral. 
  • SPY is under its 50 MA but it is over the 200 MA averages on the Daily chart. It just went above the 100MA.  
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. There is a possibility for us to retest this line soon and it turns into support. 407 is the next Fib line higher. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. If this level falls on the weekly close, it could lead to a major push downward. This seems to be the level that the market is comfortable buying at. 

Percentages from the Highs

  • SPY is approximately -20% (479 HIGH)
  • QQQ is approximately -35% (408 HIGH)
  • DJX is approximately -10% (369 HIGH)
  • IWM is approximately -30% (244 HIGH)

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 380 (major) > 383 > 386 > 390 (major) > 393 > 395 > 400
  • NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES futures. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 16:00 PM - Jan 16 2023
by: Maverick

Stock Market - Week Ahead: January 17, 2023

Economic Calendar
  • Monday: US Markets closed for MLK Jr Day.
  • Tuesday: NY Empire Index @ 830; FOMC Williams @ 3pm
  • Wednesday: UK CPI @ 2am; EU CPI @ 5am; US PPI + Retail @ 830; US Industrial Production @ 915; FOMC Harker @ 2pm.
  • Thursday:  US Housing Data @ 830; Philly Fed Data @ 830; FOMC Williams @ 6:30pm
  • Friday: FOMC Harker @ 900; Fed Waller @ 1pm

Earnings Calendar
  • Tuesday: GS + Banks premarket.
  • Wednesday: SCHW premarket.
  • Thursday: PG premarket, NFLX afterhours.

Market Thoughts:
  • Last week: The run into CPI was impressive and held.  Strong move from the bulls.  I was doing good up until my CPI strangle got absolutely roasted because we didn’t move at all (worst case scenario).  It was a losing week for me, but it’s on the back of a few week hot streak.
  • SPY right at the sloping line of resistance of 400.  It’s riding above its 200MA now.
  • QQQ getting close to its sloping line of resistance of 285.  It’s below its 200MA.
  • DIA/Dow is not far from an all-time high - mind blowing, really.
  • Both of these lines, everybody is watching because it’s where the rejections have been happening for a year now.  Will it hold true once more?
  • I think so - but there’s real risk to them breaking out above them and going nuts.  I’m trying to keep it light and wait for confirmation - in either direction.  Right now, it’s gambling at these levels to be on either side.
  • VIX is at almost 18.  Are we going to 15?
  • DXY is under 102 (we were at 115 top in September).  I think it’s going to find a lot of support at 100-101 that would be tough to push through.
  • HOWEVER….We’re going into earnings season.  We’ve got layoffs piling up in tech, banks preparing for loan delinquencies, some warnings being sounded, and once again the fate of the market is probably on Apple.
  • Unemployment + consumer spending remain the key numbers for me.  The upward move in consumer credit and downward move in savings should be a note of caution.
  • CPI is no longer important - it’s just going to keep going down for now, we know this.
  • Is the Fed going to cut?  I don’t see why on earth they would right now - or even this year.  People are saying they’ve gone too far.  How so?  CPI is coming down, the market is trying to push through 400 on 60 year low unemployment, consumer spending that won’t seem to back down, and earnings that seem OK so far.  Where’s the pain?  This is the sweetheart scenario for the Fed — plus it lets them keep hitting it with QT and ensure inflation doesn’t come back.  A pause - sure - that will happen in a few meetings, but not cuts.  Unless something major breaks.
  • After being in a chop box since mid-December, we finally ripped up starting Jan 6.  January is typically a strong month with new capital inflows, renewed optimism, all that.  We’re currently in a 20 point SPY rally, which was inevitable.
  • I remain bearish overall, though - we haven’t seen the bottom yet.  I think we’ll see SPX 3200-3300 this year as the bottom. However, I am just as fine trading these rallies, but keeping it light and rarely holding overnight.
  • The sentiment - right or wrong - is definitely to the upside for now.  Be careful standing in front of the train when bulls are in charge.
  • SPY range this week (guess): 390 - 402

Technicals (Latest):
  • SPY levels:  390, 396, 400, 405
  • 200 MA: 397.25

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: I’m holding /NQ (Nasdaq100) puts for March 2023 that I’ve gotten tangled up with and am now at a loss on.  I’ve got time on them, but I’m looking to exit at flat (almost had the opportunity on Friday before we reversed up) and reassess.
  • I’m going to ignore my /NQ position and just trade what’s in front of me.  Right now, that’s scalping /ES after the more important events this week, of which there are many


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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 23:35 PM - Jan 08 2023
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: January 9, 2023 - SPY 380-400 range; JPow in the wild; CPI Thursday; confusing market - keep it light.

  • Monday: Nothing.
  • Tuesday: JPow speaks in the wild @ 0900 (!!)
  • Wednesday: Nothing.
  • Thursday:  FOMC Harker @ 0730; CPI @ 0830 (!!!)
  • Friday: FOMC Harker @ 0730 (again?); UMich Inflation Expectations @ 1000

Thoughts - General:
  • Last week: I was on another roll last week up until Friday.  I exited beautifully on Friday morning, then I made an error right before the ISM report I forgot about — I went short when I knew to go long after the NFP data (due to wage inflation slowing).  That blew a hole in my account that remains currently a large unrealized loss.  Being short doesn’t look good going into this week, either.
  • There’s a word that’s making its way around the media - goldilocks.  It showed up a lot this weekend.  I can’t ignore it, even though I still don’t think it’s going to happen.  Goldilocks is economic growth, unemployment staying low, and inflation coming down.  It seems unlikely to be pulled off to me, but they did get some data that supports it on Friday.
  • Right now the market is in between Fed Trade (betting on rate hikes / cuts) and Economy Trade (Recession or Not).  It’s hard to tell from day to day how the market is going to react to data.  A few months ago, it was crystal clear what was good news or bad news.  Now….it can go either way. 
  • With reductions in liquidity (QT) this means it will continue to be more explosive moves in either direction - like we saw on Friday.  That was a low volume move to the upside on slowing in wage inflation, yet still-strong labor market, and lowest unemployment in 50+ years.
  • I continue to maintain that Fed isn’t cutting until end of this year (Q4) at earliest OR when something major breaks.
  • Because of that, we SHOULD - eventually - have a spike in unemployment
  • Currently, the bond market is expecting some Fed cuts much earlier than that
  • Also on Friday we got a hint from Bostic that 25bps hike was more likely than 50bps.  That’s closer to a pause, for sure, so the market liked that.
  • on Tuesday, we have JPow in the wild - he can be a real roll of the dice in either direction - so expect that.  If I’m guessing, he’s going to acknowledge the NFP and warn more is needed and he still doesn’t like tight labor market.  So, nothing new.
  • on Thursday, we’ve got CPI.  Based on NFP Friday, this CPI will move the market.  Everybody is expecting a easing reading below 6% and I expect nothing less.  5.7% is the forecast, 6% was the previous reading.  Above or below the forecast and you know what happens.  In the real-time/on the ground, it feels really sticky, but not increasing.  This impacts corporate earnings, but not CPI reading.
  • Earnings kick off on Friday with the banks leading the show.  Here we go……I expect some wild moves this round from all sectors, especially tech.  Layoffs will be the flavor of the month with the impact to earnings being the tailwind.
  • Over in the UK, things continue to look much worse than the US.  Are they leading indicator or just their own scenario?
  • So where does that leave us?
  • I think we’ve got a bullish week on our hands.  JPow is a wild card, but everything else is screaming bullish (for this week): CPI, Fed speakers, NFP from Friday, all this goldilocks talk
  • If CPI comes in at expectations or below, I think it’s possible we see 400 this week. I think it’d sell off pretty quickly from there, though, as we then head into the earnings confessional.
  • My chart [will post below] says: stay out of the way until 398-400 and then short it.


Thoughts - Technicals (Latest):
  • SPY levels:  380, 385, 390, 396, 400
  • 200 MA: 398.62
  • Chart - Weekly: Neutral/Bearish - The lines are too tangled and RSI in dead middle, but this looks like a consolidation before a drop.
  • Chart - Daily: Bullish - looks quite bullish for this week.
  • Chart - 4h: Bullish - same.

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: I’m holding an /NQ (Nasdaq100) short position for March 2023 that is mostly a screwup from Friday.
  • I’m looking to exit this with as little loss as possible before CPI - hopefully at 385 SPY or lower.
  • I’ll stand out of the way until 398-400 SPY and then go short /NQ again
  • I may scalp calls along the way, but never holding overnight.

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 22:19 PM - Jan 08 2023
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - January 9th, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

SPY had a weekly range of 377 to 388. Friday alone moved from 379 to 388 on the back of the Jobs data and Services PMI data. It was a very intriguing week and it appears the bulls are starting to find a narrative that is sticking. We are back on the bandwagon that the Fed will pause on rates soon. The jobs data came in hotter than expected, and unemployment went down. However, the wage rate went down so that helps avoid a wage price spiral. 

The services PMI came in weak and the market took that as a signal that the Fed is doing its job in slowing the economy. It really seemed that the market was ready to go up and was just spinning any narrative they could to make it happen. The weakened economic numbers signals a possible soft landing if jobs stay strong, but it also gets us closer to a recession. Should be an interesting week ahead.  

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


So this week has a few major landmines with JPow talking in premarket on Tuesday and CPI data coming in on Thursday. 

My Prediction - 

I do think we see some de-risking on Monday heading into that JPow speech on Tuesday. I am not sure what to expect with it, since this is a speech in Europe. He normally is not as hawkish in these speeches, so the market may not really have a negative reaction to it. 

The CPI data on Thursday is expected to show a cool report and that would give us three consecutive months of cooler inflation reports. The rate is still way above the 2% target the Fed wants, but the bulls will spin this as a downward trend that is showing that the Fed has done enough. 

I expect the market to pullback to 383-386 at some point and then move higher on that CPI report. A 400 test is possible with the right data. However, if that CPI report comes in hotter than expected, the market will head back below 380 in a hurry. 

Yet another week to keep it light and let the major reports dictate the trend.

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I closed out my core puts for Feb 28 for a nice profit and grabbed some Mar 30th puts on Friday. I am slightly down on them due to Friday's continued move up after I grabbed them. 
  • I am looking at scalping most of the week. If an opportunity presents itself to close out the core puts for a gain, I will lock that in. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are overbought. 4 hour and Daily charts are all neutral. 
  • SPY is under its 50 and 200 MA averages on the Daily chart. It just went above the 100MA.  
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. There is a possibility for us to retest this line soon and rejects. Then I am looking for a possible break to show support if the CPI data allows it. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. If this level falls on the weekly close, it could lead to a major push downward. This seems to be the level that the market is hanging around. 

Percentages from the Highs

  • SPY is approximately -20% (479 HIGH)
  • QQQ is approximately -35% (408 HIGH)
  • DJX is approximately -10% (369 HIGH)
  • IWM is approximately -30% (244 HIGH)

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 380 (major) > 383 > 386 > 390 (major) > 393 > 395 > 400
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 20:49 PM - Jan 01 2023
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: January 3, 2023 - SPY 380/390 range this week; economic data resumes; stay nimble, but bearish.

  • Monday: US Markets are closed.
  • Tuesday: US Manufacturing PMI @ 0945
  • Wednesday: US ISM PMI and JOLTS (!!) at 1000
  • Thursday:  ADP Payroll @ 0815, Jobless Claims @ 0830, Services PMI @ 0945
  • Friday: US Non-Farm Payrolls @ 0830 (this is event of the week), ISM Services PMI @ 1000

Thoughts - General:
  • Last week: My range prediction winning streak ended.  I was totally wrong on last week’s range - if you can believe it - I was too bullish!  I guessed 380-393, but it was 376 to 384.  No problem, I was holding puts.  I had a surprising lucky streak on timing and managed to close out near the bottom and re-buy at the highs on puts.  So I’m strutting into 2023 with half the position I had at nearly high of the week SPY avg.
  • As we kick off 2023, I repeat what I’ve said for the last few weeks:  There is no data-based bull case - we’re staring down a recession, bad earnings, rising unemployment, no QE (QT, actually).
  • The only hope bulls have is for something major/critical to break (which would cause a huge dip anyways) - that would cause JPow to cut rates.  Until that point, he’s not backing down/pivoting until end of 2023 at earliest.  He will hold the rate once he’s got it to at least 5.25% until then.  He’s going to beat inflation even if he goes too far (which I agree with). 
  • I read an article last week that said “Bull’s Biggest Fear in 2023:  That there is NOT a recession” - that’s a spot on headline.  It’ll be a long year of pain if they don’t get a full blown recession and make some dials spin.
  • It may just play out that way until the crash finally happens once something major can’t take any more slow, long-burning pain.
  • I may be looking a little too early in the year for SPY 330 though (April 2023 currently).  It may take longer to get and stay under that, just based off of how strong consumer spending is staying and how little unemployment is moving…..for now.
  • It doesn’t change my position, just timing. I don’t expect this to move straight down.  It will stumble down the stairs.  There will be plenty of bear market rallies (based on technicals) all the way to the bottom (wherever that is) and I’ll play as many as I can spot.
  • For me - those are the main things that matter - consumer spending & unemployment numbers.  Those will lead any earnings whiffs.
  • Does AAPL issue a warning about Q4?  The CFO did give a hint…  Does TSLA show weak delivery numbers?  It’s all going to happen in the next 2-3 weeks, if so. 
  • VIX is still asleep - but I’m looking for it to light up hard in January.
  • As for this week - I’ll be looking for some capital inflows/new year equity buying to push the markets up.  This is why I only have half my position.  I want the other half this week from as high as 390 if they’ll push it there.
  • We’ve got a normal schedule of data in the next two weeks - most importantly Payrolls (and wage growth) data on Friday - then CPI next week (it will still matter a little - just a lot less than it did).  JOLTS on Wednesday will make it move, too.  Keep an eye on the calendar above.


Thoughts - Technicals (Latest):
  • SPY levels:  370, 375, 380, 390
  • 200 MA: 399.92
  • Chart - Weekly: Neutral/Bearish - The lines are too tangled and RSI in dead middle, but this looks like a consolidation before a drop.
  • Chart - Daily: Bullish - support a move up for first 2 days of year.
  • Chart - 4h: Bullish - same.

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: I’m holding half position I want on /ES puts for March 2023.
  • If we get to 390 SPY, I’ll add more.
  • Then I’m just waiting for a shoe to drop.
  • I’ll play any key level bounces or obvious momentum with calls I exit by EOD.  Not holding calls overnight at any point.

SPY weekly in all its glory

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 20:29 PM - Jan 01 2023
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - January 3rd, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

It was a very entertaining week with the market testing under 380 a few times. Ultimately, we closed the year above 380 and that level has held up as support. It was a low volume holiday week so I am not sure we can put too much weight in any of the price action. There was not any additional economic data to change any of the bearish macro outlooks. 

The first week of the year brings back the data, fed speakers and the volume. The economic calendar is jammed packed this week with important data so lets take a deep dive into it. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Monday - Markets Closed
  • Tuesday - US PMI data at 9:45am
  • Wednesday - JOLTS data at 10am
  • Wednesday - FOMC Minutes at 2pm
  • Thursday - ADP Employment Report at 8:15am
  • Thursday - Services PMI at 9:45am
  • Friday - EU Inflation report at 5am
  • Friday - US Nonfarm Payroll data at 8:30am ⚠️ (main data for the week)

So this week is all about jobs jobs jobs. There are a few scenarios we need to keep an eye out for on how the market reacts to each of the jobs reports. Here are the scenarios I am looking out for on the big Friday's report:
  • Nonfarm Payrolls (Prev Month 263k) & Unemployment is 3.7%
    • If payrolls, employment number, or hourly wages comes in higher/hot vs the expectations, that would continue to show a tight labor market. The bearish argument here is that the Fed will want to keep this number down and thus will stay aggressive for longer.  The bullish argument here is that the labor market is still strong and could be due to a strong consumer, thus limits the recession argument and adds credence to the soft landing argument. 
    • If all the data comes in under expectations, that will bring the soft landing argument a lot of weight in the short term and it could spark a bear market rally. 

My Prediction - 

We won't have the full picture on the jobs data until that Friday report, so until then I am not putting much weight in the price action. Friday's premarket data does setup a great straddle opportunity and I will prepare to make that play. My gut says we are heading lower regardless of the data due to the inability of one set of reports to fully change the Fed's aggressive approach. Can we test 390 again? Sure, but I am not sure what allows that to stick without any sort of momentum in a believable bullish narrative. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I am holding core ES puts for Feb 28. I have about 80% of my position and will probably sit back on adding anymore unless we test 390 again. 
  • I will be looking at entering a strangle on Friday in premarket for the Nonfarm Payrolls Jobs Data. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour, and Daily charts are all neutral. 
  • SPY is now under its 50, 100 and 200 MA averages on the Daily chart. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. There is a possibility for us to retest this line soon and most likely it turns into resistance. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. If this level falls on the weekly close, it could lead to a major push downward. This seems to be the level that the market is hanging around. 

Percentages from the Highs

  • SPY is approximately -20%
  • QQQ is approximately -35%
  • DJI is approximately -10%
  • IWM is approximately -30%

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 373 > 376 > 380 (major) > 383 > 386 > 390 (major) > 393
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 20:54 PM - Dec 26 2022
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - December 27th, 2022

Last Week Recap - 

We had quite a bit of fireworks last week with the market having a few breakdowns to the 376 test. The cracks in the bull thesis is starting to show and market participants are starting to lose faith. The top 3 things from last week that mattered to me were:
  • TSLA is in free fall. Margin calls starting to hit retail with nearly $5 billion in margin calls alone on Friday for Tesla. The daily chart for TSLA looks like a 5 min flush down. There is going to be a pop at some point for TSLA just based on the technicals. But until that pop happens, it is anybody's guess where the bottom is. 
  • David Tepper goes on CNBC and calls out people fighting the Fed. The billionaire hedge fund manager says he is going to take the central banks serious and is now leaning short in the market. If you have not seen this interview, please find it and watch the full version. 
  • PCE Core inflation comes in sticky. Headline goes down, but the core is showing signs of slow decline and stickying at the current levels. This is another headwind for the Fed to keep an aggressive approach. 

There will be a lot of chatter about a Santa Rally this week. Historically, the last 5 days of the trading year finish on an uptrend. Will it happen this year?

My Prediction - 

With the low volume week ahead on a shortened holiday week, it is really tough to play either side with much confidence. I have a rather large core put position for the end of February, so I am going to ignore it this week. It will be all about small scalps and not get married to any trend that shows up this week. I know a lot of folks will tout the Santa Rally, but I am not going to put much faith in that. So it is all scalps for me with an expectation of a max +/- 2% move on the week. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I am holding core ES puts for Feb 28. I will look to add to these at SPY key levels on a retests of major levels. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


THE PLAYS OF THE WEEK for SPY:

  • If you are not comfortable scalping, I would sit this week out. I am going to be in and out of plays very fast and will look to add to my core puts if we test 390 on the SPY. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour, and Daily charts are all neutral. 
  • SPY is now under its 50, 100 and 200 MA averages on the Daily chart. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. There is a possibility for us to retest this line soon and most likely it turns into resistance. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. If this level falls on the weekly close, it could lead to a major push downward. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 373 > 376 > 380 (major) > 383 > 386 > 390 (major) > 393
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 20:47 PM - Dec 26 2022
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: December 27, 2022 - SPY 380/393 range this week; Baby Santa Rally; no bull case in January.

  • Monday: US Markets were closed.
  • Tuesday: US Housing data @ 1000, Dallas MFG Index @ 1030
  • Wednesday: US Housing Data @ 1000
  • Thursday:  US Jobless claims at 0830 (Event of the week)
  • Friday: Chicago PMI @ 0945

Thoughts - General:
  • Last week: Look at that range from last Sunday for the week  [ https://stonks.chat/symbol/SPY/posts/317 ] - 376/390 - off just barely - range was 375/387.50 🏆 Two weeks in a row!  I ended the week a bit lower on my account, due to an unrealized ass kicking on some ES puts that I bought at ~380 - should have stuck to my rules and waited for 385 that was inevitable (we’re there tonight)
  • As I said last week, from my view, there is no data-based bull case - we’re staring down a recession, bad earnings, rising unemployment, no QE (QT, actually).
  • The only hope bulls have is for something major/critical to break (which would cause a huge dip anyways) - that would cause JPow to cut rates.  Until that point, he’s not backing down/pivoting until end of 2023 at earliest.  He will hold the rate once he’s got it to at least 5.25% until then.  He’s going to beat inflation even if he goes too far (which I agree with). 
  • Now we turn to the Recession Trade.  What matters? Unemployment rate, consumer spending, and corporate earnings.  These are the new CPI/FOMC.  The bulls are thinking a goldilocks scenario (unemployment remains low, consumer stays strong, yet inflation comes all the way down) is possible - and it is - but just seems very unlikely to me.
  • VIX is still asleep - but I’m looking for it to light up hard in January.  I think institutional money is just trying to keep it calm, sweep problems under the rug until 2022 year end prints.  Then they’ll pile into puts and run the VIX up.  I see January as being down 10-15%
  • I also want to be clear:  I don’t expect this to move straight down.  It will stumble down the stairs.  There will be plenty of bear market rallies (based on technicals) all the way to the bottom (wherever that is)
  • I’ve still got SPY 330 circled for April 2023.
  • As for this week - I see a slow tick upwards until Thursday.  Baby Santa Rally, if you will.  This is historically a low volume and green week.  There’s nothing on the calendar that will spook the market.  Only unexpected international would jolt it.  I think we’ll cross SPY 390 and maybe even touch 393.  China re-opening will help and is probably the biggest news this week.
  • Friday - good luck - that’s EOY, EOM, EOQ - the final 30 minutes will be fun to watch with some popcorn.
  • US Markets will be closed on Monday, January 1 in observation of New Years.


Thoughts - Technicals (Latest):
  • SPY levels:  375, 380, 390, 393, 400
  • 200 MA: 400.67
  • Chart - Weekly: Neutral - Nothing clear here.  Lines are tangled and RSI is in the middle.
  • Chart - Daily: Bullish - this looks to confirm my above note about slow uptick this week into Thursday.
  • Chart - 4h: Bullish - same.

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: I’m holding a bigger bucket than I currently want of /ES 3700P March 2023
  • If we get to 390 SPY, I’ll add more.
  • I’ll probably pick up some /ES long to hold for the week before the open.
  • I’m not going to trade much this week, particularly as my bear claws are out, but the volume & news isn’t there this week to agree with me.

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 22:39 PM - Dec 18 2022
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - December 18th, 2022

What a week we had last week with the CPI and FOMC coming in. This week does not have anything major on the economic calendar until Friday's PCE data. 

Let's recap the events of last week real fast, as that will help us make my case for the upcoming few weeks. 

CPI and FOMC Recap - 

CPI came in cooler than expected and the market rocketed up to over 410 in premarket. It could not hold the gains and plummeted and hung around 405 until FOMC. That was a critical data point to me that the cooler CPI no longer meant that the market was going to rocket up higher.

Right before FOMC, SPY was at 405. The Economic Projections came out with the Fed Funds Rate for 2023 set to come in at 5.1%. But the major things that stuck out to me in that report was the lower GDP expectations and the higher Core Inflation expectations. Basically, the Fed is expecting a recession with those projections.

Screen Shot 2022-12-18 at 9.59.40 PM.png 209.17 KB


In the press conference, JPow came in very hawkish. He was extremely hesitant in his answers to not say anything bullish for the market to rally. He was very clear that he was not pausing, not cutting, keeping his inflation mandate at 2% and all the projections factored in the latest CPI report. It was a very bearish conference.

The market seemed to be dazed during the conference and closed near 399. But the selling intensified the next 2 days and SPY closed the week a little over 383. The weekly chart is pretty ugly for SPY.

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My Prediction - 

We are shifting from the inflation trade to the recession trade. So what we have used as signals and macro indicators has now shifted. I find Fed Daly's comments on Friday very telling. She is one of the most dovish Fed members and came out with a hawkish statement. She stated that she is looking at holding the peak fed rate for 11 months (!) and that the peak fed rate could adjust meeting by meeting. JPow must have said we need to have a unified message to the FOMC members in the meeting last week.

Those comments to me signal the end of the Fed trade. So any upward movement we had from the June lows and the Fed pivot theory, should be lost. It won't go in a straight line, but I am fading every pop we get. We should start to see the TLT jump up as folks run to Bonds as a safehaven. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I am holding core SPX puts for Jan 20. I will look to add to these at SPY key levels on a retests of major levels. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • This week is pretty light until Thursday.
  • Thursday - US GDP data in premarket
  • Friday - PCE inflation and consumer data in premarket 
  • Friday - UoM inflation and Consumer Data at 10:00am. The sneaky big report that no one mentions. 

THE PLAYS OF THE WEEK for SPY:

  • It is pretty simple for me moving forward. Grab puts at key levels of 386, 390, 393. If we never test them, look at grabbing some calls near 373 as a hedge. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, and 4 hour charts are all almost oversold. The Daily chart is neutral. 
  • SPY is now under its 50, 100 and 200 MA averages on the Daily chart. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. There is a possibility for us to retest this line soon and most likely it turns into resistance. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. If this level falls, it could lead to a major push downward. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 373 > 376 > 380 (major) > 383 > 386 > 390 (major) > 393
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 21:49 PM - Dec 18 2022
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: December 19, 2022 - SPY 376/390 range this week; FOMC digestion + PCE Data on Friday; I’m very bearish.

  • Monday: Nothing.
  • Tuesday: US Housing data @ 0830
  • Wednesday: US Consumer Confidence at Housing data at 1000
  • Thursday: US GDP and Jobless claims at 0830
  • Friday: US PCE at 0830 and UMich at 1000

Thoughts - General:
  • Last week: I ended the week solidly higher.  I didn’t hit what I was expecting for such an explosive week, but still nothing to complain about.  Learn, optimize.
  • Look at that range from last Sunday for the week https://stonks.chat/symbol/SPY/posts/315 — basically nailed top and bottom! “Stock Market Week Ahead: December 12, 2022 - SPY 380/410 range this week” 🏆
  • What I said last Sunday is what happened at FOMC, but he was even more hawkish: “I could be wrong, but I think the bulls are nearing maxed out on the Fed Trade + Peak Inflation narrative.  There will be little to get excited about after Dec 14.  It’s going to be 50bps (best case), he’s going to lay out a path of higher rates and longer - just slower to get there.  He’s going to warn there’s much work to do, still.”
  • My biggest mistake last week:  Not holding until Friday the bucket of puts I bought on FOMC Day after JPow confirmed hawkish stance.  I sold them on Thursday early around 391.50 SPY, but that was only the beginning as we found out with SPY closing at 383 on Friday.  I didn’t want to stand in the way of OpEx just in case it did something mechanical and silly, but that fear ended up being hokum and very costly from a trade I’d been planning for a long time.
  • We also saw - right in front our eyes on CPI day - the shift from Inflation/Fed Trade to Recession Trade I’ve been looking for.
  • I no longer consider CPI worth playing and am down-ranking it in importance going forward.  The only reason I’d put it back in the mix is if we saw 2 prints HIGHER than previous months.  Until then….thanks for the good times we shared.
  • After this week, there is no data-based bull case - we’re staring down a recession, bad earnings, rising unemployment, no QE (QT, actually).
  • The only hope bulls have is for something major/critical to break (which would cause a huge dip anyways) - that would cause JPow to cut rates.  Until that point, he’s not backing down/pivoting until end of 2023 at earliest.  He will hold the rate once he’s got it to at least 5.25% until then.  He’s going to beat inflation even if he goes too far (which I agree with).  People forget how much shit they gave the man early on when ending QE and not raising rates.
  • Now we turn to the Recession Trade.  What matters? Unemployment rate, consumer spending, and corporate earnings.  These are the new CPI/FOMC.
  • In the Recession Trade, DXY going up is positive for SPY; down is negative for SPY.  This is a flip of just a couple weeks ago.
  • TLT is where the focus needs to be right now (replaces TNX on my watchlist).  As TLT goes up, SPY should come down.  This indicates a move out of the stock market into Bonds.
  • VIX is still puzzling everybody - but I’m looking for it to spin up hard in January.  I think institutional money is just trying to keep it calm, sweep problems under the rug until 2022 year end prints.  Then they’ll pile into puts and run the VIX up.  I see January as being down 10-15%
  • I also want to be clear:  I don’t expect this to move straight down.  It will stumble down the stairs.  There will be plenty of bear market rallies (based on technicals) all the way to the bottom (wherever that is)
  • I’ve still got SPY 330 circled for April 2023.  I’ll post the updated chart below.
  • There’s actually some decent data for the week - Housing Data should continue to show decline; US GDP on Thursday; Friday is most important with PCE and UMich consumer sentiment.  If you want to go risk-off, Friday is the day to avoid until all the data is out.  I might do that.
  • US Markets will be closed on Monday, December 26 for Christmas.


Thoughts - Technicals (Latest):
  • SPY levels:  370, 380, 390, 393, 400
  • 200 MA: 401.50
  • Chart - Weekly: Bearish - Ripster clouds are just crossing down.  Buckle up.  We’ve got a long ways to go down.
  • Chart - Daily: Bearish - Same as Weekly.
  • Chart - 4h: Bearish - but likely to get oversold soon.

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: Nothing.  I closed out in the last hour of Futures on Friday.
  • I’m buying Feb 2023 /ES Puts this week.  I’ll pick some up Sunday night at 385 (SPY).
  • Then I’ll be looking to add more at 390, 393, 396.  I can’t see 400 getting tested, but I’ll buy there as well.
  • I don’t see any other trade. If there’s a Santa Clause rally, I will only use it as puts buy opportunity.

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 22:17 PM - Dec 13 2022
by: samosa

FOMC Preview - December 14th, 2022

CPI Recap - 

What a wild day. CPI came in cooler than expected and that is saying something cause the expectations were already cool and the market ripped up on the data. We actually hit 414 in premarket and then opened near 410. That 410 level proved to be too big to handle yet again, and the market began to selloff. We actually hit sub 400 and everyone was looking around like what the hell just happened? We got a cooler CPI and the market treated it completely different than the cool reading from last month. That is a pretty clear signal that the inflation trade is coming to an end and the recession fears are starting to enter the market. Keep an eye on bad news finally turning into bad news again in the market. 

FOMC Preview - 

FOMC is where the fun really begins. JPow is the one man that can shift any trend and create major moves in the markets. One very very important note about this FOMC meeting is that we get the economic projections for the Fed Funds rate. This was not in the last meeting so this was last updated in September. The fed funds rate was projected to be 4.4 in 2022 and 4.6 for 2023. JPow let us know that the Economic Projections would be higher if they were released in the last meeting, so we can safely assume that near 5.25% is on the table for 2023.

The next section is purely my opinion and prediction for FOMC and how it will play out So please take everything I say with a grain of salt. 

I anticipate that the market will initially move down on the release of the data at 2pm. Then I think JPow will talk the markets up using bullish buzzwords, and be the same kind and gentle JPow that we last saw a few weeks ago. The market will then blast higher while he is speaking, as they believe JPow is satisfied with his efforts and the pain is over from the Fed. 
HOWEVER... the market will start to move down as it digests the data from the economic projections and realize that the Fed is actually going to keep raising rates and have no intentions to pause until more data allows them to. This will lead to a massive selloff and I believe will officially be the end of the inflation trade and the start of the recessionary trade. This will trap and hurt a lot of folks, so be nimble. 

How I am playing FOMC. I will be doing a small strangle before the 2pm release and will close out the put side at the data release. I will then hold the call side as I anticipate the kind and gentle JPow. I will then close the call side out once the market shows a reversal back down. Until then, I will ride it up and start grabbing core puts for Feb or March at key levels. But I need to see a reversal first and those economic projections must have 5.25% on them.

There is nothing JPow can say tomorrow that will give me confidence to enter any calls for the long term. There is a shift happening in the markets and I need to start adjusting my strategies from the inflation trade to the recessionary one. I think the "big drop" that everyone is waiting on, won't happen until the unemployment number starts spiking. 

This is not financial advice. 

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 21:46 PM - Dec 11 2022
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: December 12, 2022 - SPY 380/410 range this week; CPI + FOMC are all that matter. Listen to bond market for long-term.

  • Monday: Consumer Inflation Expectations @ 10am?
  • Tuesday: US CPI @ 0830 ⚠️
  • Wednesday: FOMC statement @ 2pm; JPow takes the mic at 2:30pm.  Don’t forget this is SEP release as well ⚠️⚠️
  • Thursday: ECB & BOE rate update/hikes @ 0700 & 0815. US Retail Sales & NY Manufacturing at 0830
  • Friday: EUR CPI at 0500 and US S&P PMI @ 0945

Thoughts - General:
  • Last week: I kept it light, traded very little, and ended the week up nicely.  I was totally wrong about the first half of the week (from my Week Ahead last Sunday).  That was apparently immediately on Monday, so I adjusted my sails.
  • Repeating what I said last Sunday: I could be wrong, but I think the bulls are nearing maxed out on the Fed Trade + Peak Inflation narrative.  There will be little to get excited about after Dec 14.  It’s going to be 50bps (best case), he’s going to lay out a path of higher rates and longer - just slower to get there.  He’s going to warn there’s much work to do, still.
  • CPI will keep coming down no matter what - maybe not in real terms but definitely in relative to YoY (very important to understand this point!).  The real number could be 10% inflation but the YoY vs 2021/2022 will keep dropping (just math..).  Unless we get a return of inflation run in 2023 later in the year - very possible.  Hello 1970’s!
  • After the Fed Trade is done with, I don’t see the bull case - we’re staring down a recession, bad earnings, rising unemployment, no QE (QT, actually).  I’m calling this the Recession Trade.
  • I expect Monday to be muted.  Tuesday will pop off due to CPI but even that will be tame because Dad speaks to us on Wednesday afternoon.
  • He will thread the needle like the magician that he is.
  • Then the market will pick a direction around 2:45/3pm.
  • It will set the trend for the rest of the year.  Either we’re drilling another 10-20% from here; or we’re going to Santa Rally until EOY - then get the cliff dive in Q1.  I’m ready for either - and again - JPow will set the trend on Wednesday - plenty of time to trade it, don’t get in a rush while he’s talking.
  • Recession is coming, it’s just coming slower than we thought - unemployment hasn’t shown up in the reports yet, earnings from AAPL were still strong, and consumer spending still shockingly strong.
  • DXY being down is becoming a bad thing for the market
  • Swap out TNX and put TLT on your watchlist
  • VIX is getting sparky (finally)


Thoughts - Technicals (Latest):
  • SPY levels:  396, 400, 405 (200MA), 410, 416
  • Chart - Weekly: Bearish - oh boy.  I’ll post this chart below.  We’ve seen this move 3 other times recently.  Get ready.
  • Chart - Daily: Neutral - bearish lean, but you can’t make a move until JPow drops the SEP + speaks.
  • Chart - 4h: Neutral - same, pointless until Wednesday afternoon.

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: Nothing.
  • I’ll open an SPX strangle on Monday afternoon for Wednesday expiration - for CPI.
  • I’ll close the winning side, let the loser rip (why not).  I’ll then open a new strangle on Wednesday around 1pm for Friday expiration.
  • I’ll close the winning side on Wednesday afternoon at some point, and let the loser ride.
  • Those are the short-term trades.
  • Bond market + weekly chart tells me what’s really coming - but pointless to make that move before Wednesday’s close.  I’ll be looking to add Jan/Feb puts.


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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 20:49 PM - Dec 11 2022
by: samosa

Weekly Preview for Dec 11, 2022 - CPI, FOMC

What a week we have ahead of us. This is the week where accounts can blow up in either direction if you are not careful. Blind chart analysis can shift in an instant with the fundamental events we have, so make sure you are 100% confident in the trend if you are going to ride out a play for more than a few minutes. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • This week is LOADED
  • Monday - UK GDP (DXY ramifications) in premarket
  • Tuesday - CPI at 8:30am (major data release)
  • Wednesday - FOMC Economic Projections at 2pm
  • Wednesday - FOMC Press Conference with Papa Powell at 2:30pm 
  • Thursday - BoE (UK) and EU Interest Rate decisions - DXY implications at 7:00am
  • Thursday - US Retail Sales at 8:30am
  • Friday - PMI at 8:30am


THE PLAYS OF THE WEEK for SPY:

Let's recap what we know in the market so far:
  • JPow was dovish in tone and has all but guaranteed 50 BPS hike in December. 
  • Jobs Data came in way too hot. Wages went up as did the Job numbers. 
  • CPI and PPI showing inflation is cooling a little
  • Oil is falling
  • TLT (bonds) is rising
  • DXY is above 105 which has been prior support
  • VIX is hanging out near 20
  • FOMC and CPI are scheduled for next week. 
  • PPI data came in above expectations but lower than the previous month.

Here is the truth, no one knows what direction we are headed. There is conflicting data all over the place and the best we can do is have a strong hypothesis of what we can expect in the short term and long term. So, when we are previewing this data, just know that I will be hedged for either direction. 

CPI Preview - 

Twitter user @TradrNate did an amazing job breaking down the previous CPI reports and there impacts in the market. I highly recommend taking a look at the tweet at the end of the post. 
twitter.com/TradrNate/status/1...

CPI is rumored to come in lower than the previous months cooler reading, and thus continue the momentum going for the peak inflation narrative. The Core inflation rate is major reading that matters and it is set to come in at 6.1% compared to last months 6.3% reading. So lets layout the scenarios for this data:
  • Core CPI comes in below 6.2% - This will be a bullish move in the markets. The data now backs up that JPow's aggressive moves are working (albeit slowly) towards lowering inflation. 
  • Core CPI comes in at 6.2% or 6.3% - This will be an initial bearish move and then a bullish recovery imo. Look for a similar move from Friday's PPI. 
  • Core CPI comes in above 6.3% - This will lead to a selloff in the markets. That would mean the bullish CPI report from last month can be treated as a one off. 
I will be playing a strangle on this data release. 

FOMC Preview - 

FOMC is where the fun really begins. JPow is the one man that can shift any trend and create major moves in the markets. One very very important note about this FOMC meeting is that we get the economic projections for the Fed Funds rate. This was not in the last meeting so this was last updated in September. The fed funds rate was projected to be 4.4 in 2022 and 4.6 for 2023. JPow let us know that the Economic Projections would be higher if they were released in the last meeting, so we can safely assume that near 5% is on the table for 2023.

The next section is purely my opinion and prediction for FOMC and how it will play out So please take everything I say with a grain of salt. 

I anticipate that the market will initially move down on the release of the data at 2pm. Then I think JPow will talk the markets up using bullish buzzwords, and be the same kind and gentle JPow that we last saw a few weeks ago. The market will then blast higher while he is speaking, as they believe JPow is satisfied with his efforts and the pain is over from the Fed. 
HOWEVER... the market will start to move down as it digests the data from the economic projections and realize that the Fed is actually going to keep raising rates and have no intentions to pause until more data allows them to. This will lead to a massive selloff and I believe will officially be the end of the inflation trade and the start of the recessionary trade. This will trap and hurt a lot of folks, so be nimble. 

How I am playing FOMC. I will be doing a strangle before the 2pm release and will close out the put side at the data release. I will then hold the call side as I anticipate the kind and gentle JPow. I will then close the call side out once the market shows a reversal back down. Until then, I will ride it up and start grabbing core puts for Feb or March at key levels. But I need to see a reversal first and those economic projections must have 5% on them. If they do not, then my theory is dead and we are headed for a major Santa Rally. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min is close to oversold. 1 hour, 4 hour and daily chart are neutral.
  • SPY is broke under its daily 200MA at 404.79. This MA was the top of the last bear market rally. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 418 is the .236.
  • Bottom line is Bulls need to break 400 and bulls need to break below 390. 


Levels I am Watching - 

  • $SPY - levels 380 > 386 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 403 > 410
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 21:40 PM - Dec 06 2022
by: samosa

Wednesday, December 7th, 2022 Market Preview

The price action has been very volatile the last few sessions. JPow talked last Wednesday and the SPY was at 395 before he started talking. We rocketed up to 410 the next day after the speech. Lingered around 407 on Friday near the close. 

We had a light economic data this week, so the conditions favored the bulls. Well that faded fast as the market started selling off fast on Monday. We broke under 400 on Monday and haven't really looked back since. On Tuesday, we retested 400 and then proceeded to break 396, 395, 393, and bounced off of the 100MA at 392. Back to back days with some solid selling pressure. So the question that everyone is asking... Why? 

Here is my brain dump on what is going on in the markets:
  • JPow was dovish in tone and has all but guaranteed 50 BPS hike in December. 
  • Jobs Data came in way too hot. Wages went up as did the Job numbers. 
  • CPI and PPI showing inflation is cooling a little
  • Oil is falling
  • TLT (bonds) is rising
  • DXY is above 105 which has been prior support
  • VIX is hanging out near 20
  • FOMC and CPI are scheduled for next week. 

So with all that known in the markets, why the price action lately? Well, I have a theory that we have moved on from the Fed Trade (inflation, rate hikes being the focus) to the Recession trade. I expected this shift to happen after FOMC this month to give us one last Fed Trade reaction with the 50 BPS hike causing a spike, but it appears that info and reaction already happened last week with JPow's speech. 

I will be monitoring the TLT moving forward. If it keeps rising and stocks and commodities stay flat or drop, then we know that there is a flight safety happening and we can assume that it is due to recessionary fears. We are getting near the end of the Fed Trade, and now it is whether it has already started or is this just a simple pullback. Time will tell. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I have scalped a lot lately with some good success. I did re-enter some Jan puts for SPX 3800. I am most likely going to exit these before FOMC next week. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


THE PLAYS OF THE WEEK for SPY:

  • Honestly it is just play the trend and stay super light. The 15 min chart with the 8 and 21 EMAs has been incredibly accurate this week. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, and 4 hour are just above oversold. The daily chart is neutral.
  • SPY is broke under its daily 200MA at 404.79. This MA was the top of the last bear market rally. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. I expect us to retest this line soon and most likely it turns into support. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 418 is the .236.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 386 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 22:21 PM - Dec 04 2022
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: December 5, 2022 - SPY 396/412 range this week; no Fed Speakers; Friday is most important. DXY, VIX drifting lower ⚠️

  • Monday: Nothing.
  • Tuesday: Nothing.
  • Wednesday: Nothing.
  • Thursday: Jobless claims @ 0830
  • Friday: PPI @ 0830am & UMich Consumer Data @ 10am (this looks like economic data of the week..)
  • NEXT WEEK: FOMC - Dec 14 @ 2pm - and it has SEP (Summary of Economic Projections).  Last FOMC until Feb 1 2023.

Thoughts - General:
  • Last week: Almost nailed the top with the 410 high range for last week.  JPow came in way more dovish than I expected and he sent the market flying.  I ditched my Feb 2023 puts for a loss and went long on calls - that was a prudent move.  I ended up nicely for the week instead of getting drilled.
  • This week…..
  • No Fed Speakers until Dec 14/FOMC.  Enjoy the peace!
  • DXY and VIX drifting down still - VIX in particular is right at the spot it does two things - goes sideways for months OR spikes up violently.
  • On Friday, the jobs report was very hot (unexpected) and it caused a sell off at the open that was entirely shrugged off by end of day — possibly due to JPow optimism from Wednesday OR what Alf spotted (not as hot as it seemed) - https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/job-market-less-hot-than-you-think 
  •  
  • Is 75bps back on the table for Dec 14 due to that hot jobs report (last one before FOMC)?  It’s possible - JPow did leave that open - but I think it’s unlikely.  I think the data is all just lagging and there’s already more damage than the current data is showing.  While that would be good for the Fed Trade, we’re about to transition away from that and look at the Recession Trade.
  • China relaxing its strict COVID rules in some cities.  Good for oil.
  • Some technical observations 
    • DIA/Dow is only 2400 points from its ATH (that’s not much for the Dow to move based on its move-sizes in the last 60 days).  It has completely broken above its 2022 downward trend line.
  •  
    • IWM has broken above its 2022 trend line and 200MA
  •  
    • QQQ is right near its 2022 trend line (though still a bit away from the 200 MA)
  •  
    • SPY pushed above its 200 MA and alllmost got above the 2022 trend line
  •  
  • This has been one hell of an impressive rally from 350 SPY.  That still-unexplained event from two CPIs ago, the recent CPI +20 day, and then JPow sending it another +12 on Wednesday added up quickly.
  • I could be wrong, but I think the bulls are nearing maxed out on the Fed Trade + Peak Inflation narrative.  There will be little to get excited about after Dec 14.  It’s going to be 50bps (best case), he’s going to lay out a path of higher rates and longer - just slower to get there.  He’s going to warn there’s much work to do.
  • CPI will keep coming down no matter what - maybe not in real terms but definitely in relative to YoY (very important to understand this point!).  The real number could be 10% inflation but the YoY vs 2021/2022 will keep dropping (just math..).  Unless we get a return of inflation run in 2023 later in the year - very possible.  Hello 1970’s!
  • After the Fed Trade is done with, I don’t see the bull case - we’re staring down a recession, bad earnings, rising unemployment, no QE (QT, actually). 
  • The consumer spending is still scary as hell - this has got to slow down - or we’re going off a cliff.  Unemployment should sort that out at some point.
  • Overall, I see us marching up - slowly - into Dec 14.  After that? Maybe drift sideways with one final EOY/Santa Clause rally just to get those bonuses - then January/Feb I’m expecting a big dip when reality hits of what the market is going to face for the following 12 months and those unemployment numbers start spiking.


Thoughts - Technicals (Latest):
  • SPY levels:  396, 400, 405 (200MA), 410, 416
  • Chart - Weekly: Bullish - for now.  CPI + JPow really broke the trend on this one, impressive.  I’ll post this one below.
  • Chart - Daily: Neutral - though small bullish lean.  We’re right at the 200MA.  DIA + IWM made it above it, SPY likely too as well before Dec 14
  • Chart - 4h: Bullish - marching on upwards.

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: Nothing.
  • There’s nothing on the calendar this week.  It should be a low/normal volume, slow grind upwards until Thursday and especially Friday.
  • Friday should be event of the week with PPI & UMich data out.
  • I’ll pick up some calls on Monday and trade the strength.
  • I’ll also be doing some March 2023 puts shopping (QQQ and SPX) since VIX is 19 - at some point between now and Dec 14.

SPY Weekly

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 21:30 PM - Nov 27 2022
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: November 28, 2022 - SPY 385/410 range (week); volume returns; major data Wed-Fri; JPow on deck.

  • Monday: Fed Williams @ 12pm
  • Tuesday: Nothing much.
  • Wednesday - woo! 
    • ADP Employment Change (private sector) @ 8:15 
    • GDP @ 8:30
    • Chicago PMI @ 9:45
    • JOLTS @ 10:00 ⚠️
    • JPow @ 1:30pm ⚠️
  • Thursday: PCE @ 0830 ⚠️
  • Friday: Nonfarm Payrolls @ 0830 ⚠️

Thoughts - General:
  • Last week: I don’t think I made a single trade.  Busy + short week.  Held same positions.
  • Before we discuss this week, there’s two sections from Alf (brilliant macro guy) that you should read - if you don’t read entire article
  • https://themacrocompass.substack.com/i/85090257/the-yield-curve 
    • The thing is bond markets are NOT pricing in a true recession, but just a marked economic slowdown coupled with a Fed mostly on hold in 2023 and perhaps easing a bit into 2024 to gently accompany a slow recovery.
  • https://themacrocompass.substack.com/i/86332633/conclusions-and-asset-allocation 
    • In 2000, the Fed hiked to 6.5% and took off the excess animal spirits in markets.
       In 2022, the Fed hiked to ~5% and took off the excess animal spirits in markets.
       In 2001, job market losses and earnings contraction followed.
       In 2023…the economy is going to be a reflection of the massive monetary and fiscal tightening in 2022.
  •  This week: Party starts on Wednesday morning with ADP, gets warmed up with JOLTS at 10am, and then finale with JPow at 1:30pm (this is NOT an FOMC speech, but one from a conference covering employment and inflation).
  • Thursday has the ever-important PCE (Fed’s preferred measure - since it keys in on consumer spending)
  • Friday has non-farm payrolls premarket.  JPow is likely to shift focus to jobs even more and that will make this Friday’s report even more important.
  • I’m going to attach a screenshot of the calendar this week that shows nothing but positive data expected (for the Fed Trade), except consumer spending (still going up). This week forecast calls for JOLTS to show a drop (bullish for market on Fed Trade), EU CPI to downtick a little, PCE to come down (and significant drop in MoM); non-farm to put on 200k vs 261k (last month); hourly earnings to downtick - all good for the Fed Trade.
  • I think the Fed Trade remains in play and is clearly the focus for now - but not for much longer.  This is the trade of the narrative of the Fed and their expected actions.  December 14, it will cement for many months what is going to happen.  I expect JPow to come in with 50bps, raise SEP from previous, and then note they are going to hold rates in restrictive territory for a while to see how things play out.  That means it’s a long pause - at some point - and even longer until they start dropping rates.  I think we’re going to see over 6% Fed Funds rate by the time it’s done - maybe even 7%.  Then, that’s it.  Time for the market to find something else to obsess and speculate about.
  • After the Fed Trade is out or focus (starting January 2023), the new focus will shift to two things: earnings and unemployment.  Earnings are going to keep whiffing and unemployment should start going up by then.  This should continue the march down on the market.  I’m still looking for SPY 320.  Reminder: AAPL hasn’t cracked yet.
  • I am worried - for the economy in general - about this relentless consumer spending.  Folks just aren’t backing down despite layoffs getting wound up and about to shift up a gear.  Are we just going run off a cliff?  Buy buy buy, SPLAT?
  • SPY 405 is also an upcoming 200MA test.  It has been rejected the last two times it hit this MA.  It dovetails perfectly with a rejection on Nov 30 if the data + JPow comes in ‘not as good as hoped’
  • Next Sunday I’ll go over why the CPI must come down mathematically but it can completely disengaging from inflation reality.  It might already be a bad measure, but it for sure will be next year.


Thoughts - Technicals (Latest):
  • SPY levels:  386, 390, 396, 400, 405 (200MA), 410, 416
  • Chart - Weekly: Bullish - for now.  CPI broke the downtrend; marching up until it has a reason to turn around - Nov 30 or Dec 14.
  • Chart - Daily: Bullish - for another day or two - is this August 2022 all over again?  Sure looks like it.
  • Chart - 4h: Bullish - could push higher in the next few days - then very toppy.

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: SPX 3700p Feb 28 2023 puts.  Two now at ~3900 SPX breakeven.
  • I’ll add one more put at 405, one more at 410 - then I’m just sitting tight.
  • Otherwise, I’m just sticking to the plan that’s working - trading short-term calls on strength.  Not holding overnight or into any data releases - as positive as they are expected to be, too risky.


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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 13:29 PM - Nov 27 2022
by: samosa

Monday, November 28th, 2022 Market Preview

The holiday week last week gave the market a low volume week that gave the bulls a weekly close above 400. The big question heading into this week is will the rally keep going with JPow speaking on Wednesday? We have a host of data this week that can certainly add fuel to this rally or start the reversal back down. 

On Monday and Tuesday, we have no major data coming in, so the bulls can keep the momentum going without much fear to start the week. However... Wednesday brings the heat. Here is what we are looking at for Wednesday:
  • EU Inflation Data in premarket - this will have DXY implications. 
  • US ADP Employment Data at 8:15am EST - Minor Jobs data report
  • US GDP at 8:30 EST
  • US Wholesale Inventories and US Corporate Profits at 8:30am 
  • ⚠️ JOLTS Job Openings - 10:00am - Very important report to see if the pace of hiring is slowing 
  • ⚠️ Jerome Powell Speech at 1:30pm - The main event of the week. Let's break this one down a little more below. 

It is rather peculiar that JPow is talking a day before the Fed has its 2 week blackout period heading into the December 14th FOMC meeting. Will he be Dr. Doom or will this be a nonevent? All eyes will be glued to every word he says in hopes to give us a sneak peak at what to expect in the Dec meeting. My hunch is he comes in very hawkish and tries to shift the focus from the 50 BPS rate hike coming and push more of a hint that the Federal Funds rate is headed much higher for longer. I also anticipate him to really concentrate on the jobs market still being too hot to even think about slowing the rate hikes down. However, if he comes in even a little bit dovish, the market will rocket up to a possible 430 test in the next 2 weeks imo. Again, all eyes on him Wednesday. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I continued my scalp strategy against my SPX Feb puts. I am currently only holding the core position and will most likely take a small position in calls as a hedge heading into JPow's speech. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • This week is jammed full of data and I have highlighted Wednesday above. 
  • Thursday - PCE inflation data in premarket 
  • Friday - Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30am - This is a sneaky one to look out for. A lot of attention will be placed on Wednesday and Thursday's data. But this one is just as important. 

THE PLAYS OF THE WEEK for SPY:

  • Monday and Tuesday - We don't have any economic data releasing on either day so suspect the bias will be to the upside. With possible de-risking happening at the end of the day on Tuesday. I will be playing very small scalps these two days and will add to my core put position if the SPY tests its 200MA.  
  • Wednesday - This is a huge data day, so I will be doing a small call hedge before JPow speaks just in case he wants to give the bulls a Christmas gift. But the real move will happen after he is done, so I may just tag along after the speech. I am not sure just yet. 
  • Thursday - We have inflation data in the morning and if it comes in cool, this could cancel out any of the hawkish tone that may come in from JPow. I would expect though a continuation move though from JPow regardless of what this data shows. So I am not putting too much weight in this report. 
  • Friday - Depending on the topics that JPow focuses on Wednesday, the Nonfarm payroll data could be a massive report for the market. If my theory is correct that he is shifting to the labor market as the focus, then this report sets up for a nice strangle opportunity in premarket. So I will be looking at doing just that IF Jpow talks heavy about the jobs market on Wednesday. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily charts are all almost overbought. This rally seems to be running out of gas technically. But with the data this week, we could see the rally recharge itself up. 
  • SPY is approaching its daily 200MA at 404.79. This MA was the top of the last bear market rally. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. I expect us to retest this line soon and most likely it turns into support.  407 is the .382 line. That level is near the 200 Daily MA as well, so I expect that to be the target for this rally. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 418 is the .236.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 403 > 405 > 407 > 410 > 413 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 23:50 PM - Nov 20 2022
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: November 21, 2022 - SPY 390/405 range; holiday week; low volume, bull’s delight.

  • Monday: Nothing
  • Tuesday: FOMC Mester @ 11am; George @ 2:15pm, Bullard at 2:45pm
  • Wednesday: US Jobless @ 0830; UMich Sentiment at 10am, New Homes at 10am; FOMC Minutes at 2pm ⚠️
  • Thursday: Thanksgiving!  US Market is closed for the full day.
  • Friday: Nothing, US Market is closed at 1pm EST.

Thoughts - General:
  • Last week: I was mostly offline last week, I think I made two trades that were quick.  Two wins, so that’s something.  Added one more to my Feb 2023 3700p stash (now at 2)
  • The FOMC Members have taken a more cautious (not hawkish) tone after the last FOMC than before it.  They’re projecting out exactly what the Fed is going to do and trying to slow this recent post-CPI rally down.  Doing a good job, I’d say, if that’s their mission.
  • Bullard will keep warning caution that rates are going higher - even to 6%+ (still nothing by comparison to the 70’s)
  • Minutes will be an interesting read on Wednesday at 2pm  - we’ll get to see how divided they are on pace.
  • As I said last week, it’s no longer a matter of 50/75bps in December.  Who cares about that.  It’s 50bps most likely.  It’s about SEP and what those show - and I think it’s going to be revised upwards target rate - by quite a lot.  Probably even with caveat they may need to revise upwards again.  Pivot is so far off, it’s not worth talking about.  As is a pause.  Let’s not bother right now.  All the market is really looking for (and will get in December) is a tapering of speed of rate hikes - let’s get the language right.
  • Are we into Triple Peak? Peak JPow Fear, Peak Earnings, Peak Inflation. 
  • I think we’re at Peak Earnings - for sure.  We may have hit peak inflation - but I have my doubts based on history.  We’re not at Peak JPow fear until December 14 is out of the way.  He was fear-worthy in November.
  • This week: Low volume holiday week.  I’m expecting it to move up ahead of Thursday.  All bets are off for Friday, it was a blood bath last year.
  • TLDR: I’m short-term bullish on sentiment for the Fed Trade; holding long-term puts for something to break (bigger than FTX).

Weekly Chart

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 23:22 PM - Nov 20 2022
by: samosa

Monday, November 20th, 2022 Market Preview

We got a holiday week ahead with all the economic data action coming in on Wednesday. Historically, this means a low volume week and thus it is favorable conditions for the bulls. However, last year we say a pretty significant move down of over 15 points on the SPY. 

My gameplan for this week is survival. I am going to go light in all my positions, and not put too much weight in any major moves. I am not sure a trend can be identified this week with the holiday schedule. We are closed on Thursday and are open a half day on Friday. 

JPow has a speech now on 11/30 to discuss the economic outlook and labor markets. I suspect that speech is going to be very very hawkish, so I am looking to fade any major move upward with puts for the end of the year. I am playing that this event will be ultra bearish. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I continued my scalp strategy against my SPX Feb puts. I rolled out my Dec puts to Feb on the day Poland was hit by the missile last week. 
  • I closed out all the calls and am still holding the puts.

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

  • We don't have any economic data releasing on Monday. Bullard does speak at 2:45pm and he is the hawkish of them all. Last week, he hit the market with a possible 5-7% Fed Funds rate estimation, so I suspect he doubles down on that. 
  • I am looking at very short term trades all week. We are talking a few minutes at most and keeping my size way down. This is a good week for testing out some technical strategies. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily charts are all neutral.
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. I expect us to retest this line soon and most likely it turns into support.  407 is the .382 line. That level is near the 200 Daily MA as well, so I expect that to be the target for this rally. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 418 is the .236.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 386 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 403 > 407 > 410 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 23:09 PM - Nov 13 2022
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: November 14, 2022 - SPY 390/400 range; PPI; Fed Speakers all week.

  • Monday: Not much.  Some ECB people talking premarket. Braindard at 11:30 (low impact, I think), FOMC Williams at 6:30pm
  • Tuesday: EU GDP premarket; US PPI & NY Manufacturer Index at 830am
  • Wednesday: UK CPI premarket;  US Retail Sales at 830am, FOMC Williams at 9:50am, Fed Waller at 2:35pm
  • Thursday: EU CPI premarket, FOMC Bullard at 8am; Jobless Claims 830am, Bowman at 9:15am, Mester at 9:40am (lots of Fed action today…)
  • Friday: Nohting.

Thoughts - General:
  • Last week: I wasn’t feeling so well last week, so I didn’t trade much.  CPI data was obviously more than event of the week, it was event of 2H2022.
  • CPI - I was arguing with people it was going to come in not just as a downtick, but a cooler reading.  Most seem to be thinking it was going to be above expectations or hot.  We got cold - it surprised even me.  The market reacted correctly and the bulls get that one - no argument from me.  It was an impressive print.
  • HOWEVER.  I, like others I respect, remain unconvinced we’re done.  While I won’t stand in the way of the December CPI, I don’t think the story will be quite the same.  With oil doing its dance and other components appearing to move up, we may get a reversal to the upside - or some more stickiness at a minimum.  This is not falling as far as it roared up.
  • Look over at our friends in UK and EU - their CPI is still going up.  Did US really already reverse inflation?  I doubt it.  It’s far from dead, for sure, it’s still 7.7.  I know the markets trade way ahead of the data, but I think we’re getting ahead of ourselves to go all in on the long side.
  • On Sunday, Fed Waller had a few interesting statements: “FED'S WALLER: THE FED WAS CAUGHT OFF GUARD IN 2021 WHEN INFLATION APPEARED TO MODERATE BEFORE EXPLODING.” “FED'S WALLER: THE CPI REPORT ON FRIDAY IS JUST ONE DATA POINT; MARKETS ARE FAR AHEAD.” “FED'S WALLER: GIVEN THE LEVEL OF INFLATION, THE US POLICY RATE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH.”
  • Alf had some quality, in depth comments on the event: https://themacrocompass.substack.com/p/bear-or-bull
  • The Fed’s rate just isn’t that high.  I realize some companies are moaning but it’s because they’re addicted to 0%.  I can understand that, but this could go so, so much higher and I think it will if inflation isn’t smacked down hard.  I think JPow is going to do this right now that political pressure is out of the way.  That means higher rates for longer.
  • As I said last week, it’s no longer a matter of 50/75bps in December.  Who cares about that.  It’s 50bps most likely.  It’s about SEP and what those show - and I think it’s going to be revised upwards target rate - by quite a lot.  Probably even with caveat they may need to revise upwards again.  Pivot is so far off, it’s not worth talking about.  As is a pause.  Let’s not bother right now.  All the market is really looking for (and will get in December) is a tapering of speed of rate hikes - let’s get the language right.
  • I’m also trying to figure out if we’re in the triple peak - Peak JPow Fear, Peak Earnings, Peak Inflation. 
  • I think we’re at Peak Earnings - for sure.  We may have hit peak inflation - but I have my doubts.  We’re not at Peak JPow fear until December 14 is out of the way.  He was fear-worthy in November.
  • Long brain dump, sorry.  It was important for me to put it to keyboard.
  • TLDR: I’m short-term bullish on sentiment; holding long-term puts for something to break.


Thoughts - Technicals (Latest):
  • SPY levels:  386, 390, 396, 400, 410, 416
  • Chart - Weekly: Bullish - for now.  CPI broke the downtrend.  Ripster hasn’t turned up, but it might, which would be powerful move up.
  • Chart - Daily: Bullish - there’s still more upside here - but approaching overbought.
  • Chart - 4h: Bullish -  we’re right near overbought line, but 4h always likes to push through - looks green like Daily to me

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: SPX 3700p Feb 28 2023 put - just one that I picked up at SPY 390.  I’ll buy at 400 and 410.
  • I’ll add to my Feb puts at key levels (as noted).
  • I’ll trade calls on bounces/tests of key levels.  The idea here is to pile up cash while I’m waiting for bottom to fall out.

Sharing the weekly below - impressive CPI dent.

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 21:39 PM - Nov 13 2022
by: samosa

Monday, November 13th, 2022 Market Preview

On Thursday, I said we had a recipe for a green trend day with the bank holiday. We had the UoM report that came out mixed. The consumer sentiment was lower and that was the bullish slant. The 5 year inflation consumer expectations went up, and that was the bearish slant. We dropped on the release, and I ended up buying the dip. We are in a short term bullish trend, so the only bearish item in the report was a long term macro data point. The market digested the report, and continued on its move upward. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I continued my scalp strategy against my SPX Dec puts. I grabbed SPX calls and AAPL calls and made a nice profit on the day. 
  • I closed out all the calls and am still holding the puts. I will look at grabbing some more calls on the next drop to a key level. 
  • My core puts position was 30% of my portfolio and it now down to 10%. However my cash position has increased over 60% while holding the puts.
  • I may start grabbing Feb puts if we break above 404. I am not in a hurry to start this position just yet as I think this rally has some more legs. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Fed Speakers are all over the place this week. And I expect a few more to surprise us each day like what happened last Friday. 
  • Monday - Brainard Speech at 11:30am
  • Tuesday - PPI inflation release at 8:30am
  • Tuesday - Cook Speech at 9:00am
  • Tuesday - Barr Testimony at 10:00am
  • Wednesday - Retail Sales at 8:30am ⚠️
  • Wednesday - Williams Speech at 9:50am
  • Wednesday - LaGrande Speech at 10:00am (DXY implicaitons)
  • Wednesday - Waller Speech at 2:35pm 
  • Thursday - Building Permits and Housing Data at 8:30am
  • Friday - Existing Home Sales at 10:00am

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

  • We don't have any economic data releasing on Monday. Waller on Sunday talked about how the Fed is not looking at relaxing, but they are most likely going to 50 BPS hike in December. This signaled a shift of focus imo to the economic projection rate more than the actual rate hike. So I would not get too bullish about the 50 BPS hike, and expect a larger projection to come in December. That means we got more rate hikes coming for longer. 
  • Even with that information, I am still in buy the dip mode. I do expect a pullback on Monday and possibly into Tuesday with the PPI data. But I will be looking for a reversal candle at a key level and will be jumping in short term calls for a few weeks out. 
  • I will keep adding long term puts at major key levels. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, and 4 hour charts are overbought. Daily is close to overbought conditions. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. I expect us to retest this line soon and most likely it turns into support.  407 is the .382 line. That level is near the 200 Daily MA as well, so I expect that to be the target for this rally. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 418 is the .236.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 403 > 407 > 410 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 21:54 PM - Nov 10 2022
by: samosa

Friday, November 11th, 2022 Market Preview

Happy Veteran's Day to all those who have served. Thank you for all the sacrifices you have and are making for our great country. Now onto to Thursday's recap:
What a Day. What a Day. What a Day...
The CPI came in much cooler than anyone expected and the market went absolutely nuts. A massive rally that saw SPY break 390 and test 395. I have been very critical of these rallies in the past due to many of them being based on a lot of fluff and not much substance. Well today, the bulls got some economic data that can, at least in the short term, merit some peak inflation optimism. It was a historic day for QQQ and SPY and now 410 is firmly in the bulls sights. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I entered the big CPI day fully hedged on my core December puts. That hedge paid off as I was wildly green for the day, and I still have that core position. If the market corrects by the end of the year, those puts will be up huge. But for now, I am trading unrealized losses for realized gains with scalps and hedges. This is working out well for me. 
  • I scalped calls all day long and decided to just hold my core Dec puts position overnight. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

  • We have a bank holiday on a weekly options expiration day. This has the setup for another one of those slow grind up all day, green trend days. So I will be looking at buying any dips and playing calls for the next few weeks. There are no major landmines imo until Next week's PPI and Retail sales. But even those are kind of low on the totem pole. 
  • I will keep adding long term puts at major key levels. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are overbought. 4 hour and Daily are close to overbought conditions. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line and we broke it today. I expect us to retest this line soon and most likely it turns into support.  407 is the .382 line. That level is near the 200 Daily MA as well, so I expect that to be the target for this rally. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 418 is the .236.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 380 (major level) > 383 > 386 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 403 > 407
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 22:05 PM - Nov 08 2022
by: samosa

Wednesday, November 9th, 2022 Market and CPI Preview

The market was a wild one today. We started off flat and then slowly moved up to 385. It was a low volume move, no news move upward. Then 1pm happened and we started the move downward. The bond market had an auction that had increased demand at that time and some speculated that was the trigger. I think that was a part of the equation but not sure it was alone the cause of a drop of 7 points in an hour to 378. We sharply ran up the next hour to 374 and faded back in the close. It was a wild wild last few hours of the day. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • My core put position wasn't too bad today. I even added a few more and have them until December. 
  • I swung a call hedge overnight and closed those nice and green at the open. I then scalped AMD and SPX calls all the way up to 384. I then went one more time in the SPX calls at the 385 test and then the bottom fell out. This wiped out most of my profits today. Very infuriating...
  • My DWAC play ended up profitable on the shares and red on the calls. I am still holding a few calls to see if the anticipated republican wins will push it higher in the morning. 
  • Rought day for me all around. Broke a lot of rules, overtraded, and went off script. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Fed Speakers are all over the place this week. And I expect a few more to surprise us each day like what happened last Friday. 
  • Wednesday - Wholesale Inventories at 10:00am 
  • Wednesday - Fed Speaker Barkin at 11:00am
  • Thursday - CPI Inflation Data at 8:30am  ⚠️
  • Thursday - So many Fed officials talking following the CPI report. Going to be a wild day
  • Friday - UoM Consumer Sentiment at 10:00am

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

  • The big event is on Thursday in premarket with the CPI, so I anticipate Wednesday to be a very choppy day. I lean that it will be red with some de-risking happening throughout the day. 
  • I will look at entering calls on any dip tomorrow to hedge my core puts position heading into the big CPI day. 

CPI Preview: 

  • The headline number is expected to drop from 8.2% to 7.9%.
  • The core number is expected to drop from 6.6% to 6.5%.
  • If the core inflation rate comes in at or below expectations, you will see a major bullish move in the markets initially off the reading. The thing to watch here is if the move stays during the regular market session on Thursday. If it does not fade, we could see a major run to 410 in the next few weeks. If move gets faded, we are stuck in a choppy mess from 375 to 390 for a while. 
  • If the core inflation comes in above expectations, we could a violent move down. Possible June lows test at 362 by the end of the week and possible new yearly lows within a few weeks. 
  • JPow needs to see meaningful drops in inflation for consecutive months before he will consider slowing rate hikes. With the rise in energy prices in the last few weeks, it is hard to see inflation slowing meaningful anytime soon. 
  • Reminder: Fed target rate for core inflation is 2%, so we are a ways away from a rate that JPow will be satisfied with. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line and was met with rejection this week.  362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This is proving to be solid support now. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 361. The bulls need to keep this level.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 363 > 366 > 370 > 373 > 376 > 380 (major level) > 383 > 386 > 390
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 22:23 PM - Nov 07 2022
by: samosa

Tuesday, November 8th, 2022 Market Preview

The market pushed higher today on no real news. There were some rumors of Trump announcing his 2024 campaign for the presidency. Pretty telling signal that the market stayed green with the China news coming in that they are not relaxing on their Zero COVID policy.

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • My core put position took a hit today. I have them until December but damn I hate seeing red. 
  • I added a call hedge near the end of the day. I missed a better entry by being too cute and waiting for a 374 test. Never got it so I had to grab the calls much higher than I wanted. 
  • I also went a little off script and grabbed some DWAC with the elections coming tomorrow and Trump hinting at announcing a run for 2024. Probably going to get killed on this play, but I couldn't resist it. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Fed Speakers are all over the place this week. And I expect a few more to surprise us each day like what happened last Friday. 
  • Tuesday - Midterms Elections
  • Wednesday - Wholesale Inventories at 10:00am 
  • Wednesday - Fed Speaker Barkin at 11:00am
  • Thursday - CPI Inflation Data at 8:30am  ⚠️ (I will be doing a special preview on this later this week)
  • Thursday - So many Fed officials talking following the CPI report. Going to be a wild day
  • Friday - UoM Consumer Sentiment at 10:00am

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:

  • Not much change from yesterday's preview. 
  • I think we have a few days of chop with a slight lean to the upside. Not expecting a major move until CPI on Thursday. 
  • I am positioned in my 12/30 puts and will continue to play short term calls on any dips to protect my core position. If I can keep stacking realized gains on short term calls while my December puts marinate, I will be sitting pretty when the market finally drops. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min is close to overbought. 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line and was met with rejection this week.  362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This is proving to be solid support now. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 361. The bulls need to keep this level.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 363 > 366 > 370 > 373 > 376 > 380 (major level) > 383 > 386 > 390
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 21:01 PM - Nov 06 2022
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: November 7, 2022 - SPY 360/410 range; Elections; CPI; Fed speakers everywhere; bullish week.

  • All week: These Fed Presidents are all over the calendar again.  Expect volatility in both directions.
  • Monday: ECB Lagarge @ 3:40am
  • Tuesday: Election Day (US) - results in evening.
  • Wednesday: Fed Williams @ 3am (from Switzerland)
  • Thursday: Too much going on Thursday. CPI is the main event at 0830 ⚠️ then we have Fed Mester at 12:30; Fed George at 1:30; and finally Williams again at 6:35pm
  • Friday: UK GDP at 2am; UoMich consumer sentiment @ 10am (always moves the market)

  • DIS in afterhours on Tuesday
  • As noted last week, earnings is off my watch now with the majors out of the way, this will be the last week I mention it.

Thoughts - General:
  • Last week: I fumbled the ball more than once overtrading - I had the right positions.  A series of ‘If only I had held’ mostly….grrr.  My biggest takeaway from last week?  It’s okay to have a “long-term” puts position, leave it alone, and trade calls on clear short-term momentum.  That’s been hard to get my head around for two weeks now, but it damn sure works.
  • Last week:  There really was no good news last week - from earnings, Fed, or unemployment.  There were tiny strands that the bulls ran with, but nothing solid - from my view.
  • Elections: I don’t follow politics much beyond its direct impact on the market, but it sounds like it’s going to end up in gridlock in Congress, which is generally positive for the market.  If that’s the case then Wednesday should be political optimism + CPI optimism and it could be very green.
  • Fed: I think we just listen to JPow.  He’s going to go higher than he expected and hold it for longer.  Once everybody gets over this 75 vs 50 debate for December, they’re going to get hit with the fact it doesn’t mean a damn thing - because the updated projections are what’s going to drive the move at December FOMC announcement.  I don’t see CPI getting better or worse by an amount enough to sway his move by then.  We’re likely to see 50bps in December, but only if the CPI is flat/easing a little.
  • Fed Speakers: We had three of these folks come out of nowhere on Friday (I only saw 1 planned on one calendar only - and I didn’t see it until after the fact because it was only on the MW calendar); and that sent the market on rides the entire day.  It was quite an intraday chart to behold.
  • Tech: We’ve already got some negative tailwinds for the week - Apple delays in China due to COVID and META expected to announce major layoffs.  Last week saw a fair number of beefy layoffs starting at other tech companies.  The jobs number is going to catch up with all of this soon enough.
  • Overall, the Fed is still the major driver of the market right now.  I’m shocked SPY has survived all the hits that came out in the last two weeks.  I know it’s just a math equation, but still doesn’t seem right.  Oil and healthcare really holding the entire market up?  If those give, does it do a whiplash catchup of QQQ?
  • Looking at this week, it looks like a raging bull week to me - unless data comes in unexpected.
  • I think we’re going to see the Midterms be a positive catalyst that run right into CPI being a just barely cooler number - and that’s going to send us above 390 at least.  Plus you’ve got all these Fed people out in full force again and they tend to say things that make the market happy.  
  • If the data comes in hot, then all bets are off and we’re going to the recent bottoms - quick.
  • Outside of bad data, I’m - for now - expecting November to be a little green and December to very red.
  • I remain full bearish, however, and will keep my puts - and add to them at key levels. I will trade calls as momentum shows up.


Thoughts - Technicals (Latest):
  • SPY levels:  363, 369, 373, 380, 386, 390, 396, 400, 410
  • Chart - Weekly: Bearish - back on trend due to FOMC meeting.
  • Chart - Daily: Bullish - looks like it wants a few days of green.
  • Chart - 4h: Bullish - same as Daily.

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: SPX 3600p 12/30 - I was at a tidy profit on Friday, but that huge rally EOD got me.
  • I am adding NQX to my trading watchlist.  This instrument is 1/5th of the NASDAQ 100 and is treated similar to SPX.  There looks to be more opportunity in NQX/QQQ right now vs SPX/SPY
  • I’ll buy calls on a dip on Monday anywhere near 373.50-374.50.  I’d hold these through Wednesday afternoon; then I’ll switch to a Friday expiration call to play CPI which I expect to be positive.
  • I’ll continue to hold my core puts.


Putting the long-term SPY chart below just so you can see where we are on the projected path…. ( I’ve got March 2023 @ SPY 327)

Screenshot 2022-11-06 at 20.56.46.png 98.74 KB

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 14:32 PM - Nov 06 2022
by: samosa

Monday, November 7th, 2022 Market Preview

 Friday was a roller coaster ride. We tested 370 three times and closed on a nice move into the close. The DXY fell off a cliff on various news from Bank of Canada, Bank of England and China re-opening optimism. Commodities and Precious metals ran off the DXY drop. It was a fun day to follow. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I entered Friday with my 12/30 SPX puts position and 0DTE SPX calls to play the jobs data as a hedge. We opened up way up and I closed the SPX calls at the open for a nice gain. That increased my cash position and allowed me to stomach any negative move against my core puts position that may happen. I will look to doing this again before the CPI report. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Fed Speakers are all over the place this week. And I expect a few more to surprise us each day like what happened last Friday. 
  • Monday - Fed Speakers Collins and Mester at 3:40pm
  • Monday - Fed Speaker Barkin at 6:00pm. 
  • Tuesday - Midterms Elections
  • Wednesday - Wholesale Inventories at 10:00am 
  • Wednesday - Fed Speaker Barkin at 11:00am
  • Thursday - CPI Inflation Data at 8:30am  ⚠️ (I will be doing a special preview on this later this week)
  • Thursday - So many Fed officials talking following the CPI report. Going to be a wild day
  • Friday - UoM Consumer Sentiment at 10:00am

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

  • All eyes will be on the futures session on Sunday night. With China confirming the zero COVID policy, do precious metals and commodities keep their move up? Does the DXY start catching bids and thus moves the market back down? Do Fed Speakers keep contradicting each other with the pace of rate hikes. 
  • I am positioned in my 12/30 puts and will continue to play short term calls on any dips to protect my core position. If I can keep stacking realized gains on short term calls while my December puts marinate, I will be sitting pretty when the market finally drops. 
  • We have CPI this week so I do expect some short covering on Wednesday if we are falling this week. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min ,1 hour, 4 hour and Daily are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line and was met with rejection this week.  362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This is proving to be solid support now. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 361. The bulls need to keep this level.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 363 > 366 > 370 > 373 > 376 > 380 (major level) > 383 > 386 > 390
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
1
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 21:39 PM - Nov 03 2022
by: samosa

Friday, November 4th, 2022 Market Preview

It was a pretty muted day on Thursday. Not a lot of clarity in the markets with the big jobs data release on Friday in premarket. One note for the bears was they were able to close below the 373 support area, but all that is voided with a cooler jobs report. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I closed out my 11/11 SPX puts for a nice profit and entered some SPX 3600p for 12/30. I got a healthy amount of these today and will look to hold them as a core position. 
  • I entered a strangle play about midday for the jobs report in the morning. I ended up way up on the put side with the flush we got at the end of the day, so I closed that side out. I have enough exposure to the downside with the December puts so I essentially am treating the call side as a small hedge if the jobs number is cooler. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

  • All eyes are on the jobs report in the morning. So lets go through some scenarios as to what to look out for. 
    • Jobs Expectations: 
      • Nonfarm Payrolls: 205k expected; 263k last month
      • Unemployment: 3.5% expected; 3.5% last month
      • Avg Hourly Wage: 0.3% expected; 0.3% last month
    • As you can see, we are expected to go way down in the jobs number this month by over 50k. 
    • Scenario 1: Jobs number comes in at or below expectations + Unemployment is unchanged. This would be a slight lean to the bullish side as the jobs number came down, but with the unemployment rate so low, that is not really a clear signal for bulls to rally the market up on. This would be a fade the rip opportunity if we moved up. 
    • Scenario 2: Unemployment comes down - This is a bearish indicator and will cancel out any hope if the jobs number comes in cooler. This has to start going up for bulls to have an advantage in the Fed narrative. 
    • Scenario 3: Unemployment goes up + Jobs are at or below expectations - This is the bullish read and the market will move up on it. 
    • Scenario 4: Unemployment is flat + Jobs come in above expectations. This is bearish and this will trigger a move down. 
    • Scenario 5: Unemployment is flat + Jobs come in above last months reading - We will test the June lows in a swift move down. 
  • I am already positioned for either side. I have my long term puts if we get a bearish move and I have the insurance in my 0DTE calls if we get a bullish move. So I am going to let the chips fall as they may. 
  • If I was all cash and the report came in slightly bullish, I would be looking at fading the rips near 373, 376, or 380 if it got that high. We have CPI next week plus the bulls will need a lot of consecutive favorable economic reports to even hint at JPow pausing anytime soon. So to play calls here for more than a scalp is super risky if the data does not support it. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are close to oversold. 4 hour and Daily are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line and was met with rejection this week.  362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This is proving to be solid support now. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 361. The bulls need to keep this level.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 363 > 366 > 370 > 373 > 376 > 380 (major level) > 383
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 22:18 PM - Nov 02 2022
by: samosa

Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 Market Preview

FOMC Recap - 

What a day. What a day. What a day...
FOMC is always a very entertaining day and today did not disappoint. The overwhelming consensus was that JPow was going to buckle under the pressure and give a hint that a possible slow down in rate hikes was coming in December. He made sure that that was not going to happen by making the following statements:
  • "It is very premature to think about Pausing. We have a ways to go."
  • "I expect us to continue to update the summary of economic projections upward in December"
  • "I don't see the case for softening in the labor market."
  • "If we overtighten, we can use our tools to respond."
  • "Has the window for a soft landing narrowed? Yes."
And on and on and on he went with the hawkish tone. His final statement was very direct in letting market participants that the Fed is not close to pausing. 

So the focus now shifts back to the economic data releases. We have a big jobs data release on Friday and then CPI next week. But he needs to see a few MONTHS of slowing before he will think about slowing. 

In summary, fade the rip is back on the table until the June Lows on SPY are retested. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I entered a strangle right before FOMC and it ultimately worked out well. I entered some 11/11 SPX puts when JPow made it clear that he was not pausing. They are up nicely. 
  • I went ahead and sold my SPX puts for March and took a nasty loss on the NEM call options. With the DXY jumping after FOMC, I don't need to be in a hurry with this one. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:

  • JPow brought the pain, and then brought it again. Then he said it one more time to make sure that everyone knows that he is bringing in the pain. 
  • I am going to look at fading any rip that happens now in the market. It sure looks like the market will be retesting the June lows again very soon. Looking at entering puts for the end of the year.  My swing trading strategy is back!

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are close to oversold. 4 hour and Daily are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line and was met with rejection this week.  362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This is proving to be solid support now. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 361. The bulls need to keep this level.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 363 > 366 > 370 > 373 > 376 > 380 (major level) > 383
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
1
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 20:51 PM - Nov 02 2022
by: Maverick

Stock Market Day Ahead - November 3, 2022 - SPY 368/376 range; JPow came in hawkish; brace for new lows.

What Happened Today (Wednesday)
  • SPY traded ~375 - 389
  • What an exciting day.  
  • A huge majority of the market partipants were expecting him to ease up, pause, pivot, whatever word you want to use.
  • I’ve been writing for weeks that it makes zero sense right now.  However, I was really worried about him giving into all this pressure and the bulls had me largely convinced it was going to happen - I just wasn’t prepared to gamble with them.
  • But…I cut my March 2023 SPX 3400p for a sizable loss this morning - just to get out of the way.
  • Then I went in with an options strangle since I knew it was going to be violent move by end of day.
  • The initial 75bps came out at 2pm and it was a non-event to me because it was expected.  The market took a line or two from the statement to mean he was for sure going to back down - and it rallied almost to 390.
  • I exited the call around 387.50 (not bad) not seeing what the excitement was about.
  • Then he took the mic and he was crystal clear in his message: I’m not backing down without sufficient data showing FOR SURE inflation is coming down, we’re not even discussing a pause, we have much work to do, everything is too strong right now (employment, consumer, etc).  He did acknowledge housing was coming unglued….but then he gave the wildcard I was hoping for: that he expects to revise the terminal rate up (projections - he even went so far to say that he if he were doing them today, he’d revise them upwards) - that’s not on the table until December meeting.
  • That was it.  I went into puts and traded them around a few times - but I shouldn’t have.  I would have been 3x profit what I ended with if I just stuck with my initial move.  There was one candle and statement from him that made me question myself and make a bad move.
  • He threaded the needle initially, then went full hawk mode and put the bulls back in their pens.
  • He earned more respect from me and I suspect from many others today for not caving into political pressure/media/companies and doing the right thing for the US economy.  Kudos, Mr. Powell.

Thoughts - Technicals (Latest):
  • SPY levels:  363, 369, 373, 380, 386
  • Chart - Weekly: Bearish - I wasn’t buying a reversal and that looks correct now.  Long ways to go down from here.
  • Chart - Daily: Bearish - trend reversal today - fundamental event will do that.  MACD/RSI did a 180.
  • Chart - 4h:  Bearish - same as Daily, but more pronounced

Looking Ahead (Thursday)
  • The entire narrative the bull’s had was thrown out the window today.  They’re going to need to dig deep to pull out anything bullish from his statement & comments that will help.  I don’t think it’s there for now.  They will try.
  • More pain is required - maybe in December if CPI and PCE are showing signs of cooling off, but even then, I don’t think it will be enough to get a 50bps out of him.  On the contrary - if it doesn’t start cooling down, he’s going to hit it with 100bps in December.
  • We’ve got ECB in premarket, but probably not relevant.
  • Friday is the next big event - unemployment - in premarket.  Though based on JOLTS and ADP - it should be another decent jobs add (not what JPow wants).  I’m unlikely to hold through this event even though I am pretty sure that it’s bad market news.  I will jump back on the party bus after it’s out of the way.
  • If you didn’t get to watch the FOMC statement & Q/A, you really need to watch it, hear the tone.  Take the time, it’s worth it.  I’m going to rewatch it tonight or tomorrow.
  • I’m looking for 373 to break at some point on Thursday which will cause a snap down.
  • If unemployment comes in hot on Friday, we’re looking at 363-365


SPY | SPX Trading Plans (This Week)
  • I expect that we’ll see dip buyers at the open - maybe a pop to 376/377. I’ll fade that rip.
  • I held SPX Nov 11 3750p overnight, but I anticipate adding to it on opening pop.
  • I’ll likely exit at the close to avoid messing with unemployment data.
  • Then get back in the puts if it’s hot.
  • I see no bullish case right now.

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 22:49 PM - Nov 01 2022
by: Maverick

Stock Market Day Ahead - November 2, 2022 - SPY 373/400 range; drum roll for JPow, please. 🥁

There isn't much to say until JPow speaks.

I'm holding 3 SPX 3400p March 2023.  I may cut them - just to get out of the way - before the data drops at 2pm.

It's been a while since I've seen market participants so divided on what is about to happen - which means the move may be extreme - as one side capitulates.

I think the move is going to be big and go on for days, so I am going to try to wait until he's mostly done speaking - or at least gives the clear signal on when the rate hikes will start easing up AND if he sees a revision up in the terminal rate.  Then go in with confidence and size.

My gut says he gives us the 75bps on Wednesday, says 'everything is on the table' for December, says they're data dependent (like always), BUT they are seeing improvements that could push them to start tapering pace.  This sends it to the moon.

WILDCARD: If he gets asked about the terminal rate in the QA portion.  If he dodges it - no problem.  If he answers it, I think it'll be 'yes, would probably need to revise upwards after data in December' and that would stop the run in its tracks.

That stunt from the White House today was interesting and confusing.  The Fed was meeting today.  Did they let the cat out of the bag?  Or was it just a goof all around? 

We'll see....

Looks awfully bullish unless he channels his inner Volcker (he really should).

If we do get extreme bullish response, I think it's all to set it up in December for an 'unexpected' 75bps + revision of terminal rate with lots of room to knock it down, but keep it in this box its been in for a couple months now....

Good luck!

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 22:50 PM - Oct 30 2022
by: samosa

FOMC Preview - November 2nd

I wanted to do a preview for the upcoming FOMC meeting and share my thesis on what to expect. The FOMC rate hike decision is set for the Wednesday November 2nd, 2022 at 2pm EST. 

Lets recap the last few rate hikes by the FOMC:
Forbes - forbes.com/advisor/investing/f...


The consensus for the November rate hike is another 75 BPS hike. As you can see from the above figure that would mean we are expecting 4 straight 75 BPS hikes in a row. From 1% in May to 4% in November, which is right on pace to what the summary of economic projections showed us at the last meeting. 

It is important to note that we are not getting an update on the economic projections at this meeting. In the last meeting, we did get that summary updated, which ended up being the critical data to look at. Not many folks recall, but in the last FOMC meeting, the market was rocketing higher as JPow spoke during his press conference in the early going. He kept using bullish buzzwords with his answers and the market was enjoying it. Once he was done speaking, the market started digesting the economic data projections and down we went. 

So for this meeting, we only have the rate hike statement and then JPow's presser to go off of. That makes this FOMC meeting all about how JPow talks and if he hints at what will come in the December meeting. Below are my bullish and bearish arguments for the November FOMC meeting:

Bullish Thesis - 

  • No summary of economic projections
  • No shock regarding the rate hike. 75 BPS hike is fully expected
  • Powell is not pressured here to be overly hawkish. The path of rate hikes is on schedule for what he has said he wants to do. 
  • If we get a lack of clarity for the December meeting, that will allow the Fed Pivot narrative to continue on as JPow did not rule out the 50 BPS hike for then. 
  • Midterms are a week after the meeting, this historically is a bullish catalyst. 
  • The lack of commitment to let us know about the December meeting is there since JPow can allow a few more jobs reports and inflation reports to come in before having to decide December's rate hike.  

Bearish Thesis - 

  • No impactful change in core inflation, so the motivation for JPow to be dovish is small
  • The market rallying into the event, can give JPow ammunition to be as hawkish as he was in Jackson Hole to ease market expectations. 
  • Comment below if you have any additional bearish thesis' cause I am struggling here. And I am super bearish

How I am playing it - 

  • I am leaning that this is a bullish event on Wednesday. I will look at entering 50% of my call position on Monday and hold through JPow's event. If it is indeed a bullish event, I will look at adding the rest of my position afterwards. 
  • I am currently collecting March puts, so if I am incorrect about the calls, I am still ok given that position. 
1
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 22:21 PM - Oct 30 2022
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: October 31, 2022 🎃 - SPY 373/410 range; JPow on Wednesday; Unemployment on Friday. 410 - really?

  • Monday: EU CPI in premarket
  • Tuesday: OPEC meeting (been spicy lately) premarket; JOLTS at 10am
  • Wednesday: FOMC rate hike @ 2pm; Daddy JPow speaks to us at 2:30pm (event of the week) ⚠️
  • Thursday: ECB talks in premarket; normal US data 830am
  • Friday: US Unemployment rate @ 0830 (this is a close second to FOMC) ⚠️

  • With the majors out of the way now, I’m not putting much thought into the rest of the earnings reports this season.

Thoughts - General:
  • Last week: I’m holding some heavy SPX put bags for March 2023 at the moment - 3400p.  I have 4 of them now and not enjoying it.  I traded calls on the AAPL + JPow optimism to make up for what I was getting thrashed on.  Didn’t quite balance out, but I didn’t really get the memo until Wednesday.
  • I spent a lot of time this weekend on my latest thinking - Market Thesis: We're in September/October 1973. What's next? - https://stonks.chat/symbol/SPY/posts/294 - give it a read - some really interesting charts in there.  If you don’t like charts, then skip to bottom.
  • There’s a lot of folks fighting out there right now - between oil/energy, bulls/bears, UK (itself), and real fighting - Ukraine/Russia.
  • I am grinding my teeth with this wild bull run into FOMC.  I’m 50/50 as to whether he’s going to give the bulls & politicians what they want and send this thing to 410 — or if he’s going to bring the heat and do at least 75bps + not give any room for misunderstanding that he’s not slowing down anytime soon (ie Jackson Hole).  
  • The bulls are expecting 75bps + slow down or even Pivot talk.  I just don’t see how we bring down inflation with a Fed Fund rate anywhere near where it is.  6%+ at least is needed.  If you want to see what a real one looks like, go back to the 70’s and 80’s — it was as high as 20% to tame inflation (which was only a few points higher at the peak).  Let's also note unemployment is very low.
  • JPow is a magician though and I expect nothing less this round.  December I think he’s going to upset the bulls when those updated projections come out
  • Then after we get beyond Wednesday, we’ve got Friday’s unemployment rate - will it start ticking up?  It’s necessary to support any sort of Pivot rationale.  He’s not backing down until that starts going up significantly.  The housing market is already in the process of imploding, so that’s one tickbox.


Thoughts - Technicals (Latest):
  • SPY levels:  373, 380, 386, 390, 396, 400, 410
  • Chart - Weekly: Bullish - for now.  I don’t see it lasting many weeks.
  • Chart - Daily: Bullish - we were right last week on the Daily that 390 was the max. Can’t call this one with FOMC, but I lean 410 max.
  • Chart - 4h: Bullish - not far from some overbought status, but we know the 4h loves to extend itself.

Trading Plan (Monday):
  • Current position: 4 SPX 3600p 11/30 that I’m bag holding after the train ran me over last.  I bought at every level I said I would - and I sure hope I’m done.  Last one I’ll buy is 400.
  • We’re at 390 as of Friday.  That’s a real line and we’ve moved 30 points from 360 just a few days ago, taking hit after hit from tech.  Does that get heavy at any point?
  • I am buying calls if we’re above 386 - half position; double up if JPow sends it for the bulls; sell Thursday at close (before Unemployment data); re-enter Friday half position if bullish; ride to CPI.  All this out the door if 386 doesn’t hold.

Putting the long-term SPY chart below just so you can see where we are on the projected path…. ( I’ve got March 2023 @ SPY 327)

Screenshot 2022-10-30 at 21.53.56.png 124.05 KB
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 20:50 PM - Oct 30 2022
by: Maverick

Market Thesis: We're in September/October 1973. What's next?

I've spent the last two nights playing with charts putting the Dow + Unemployment Rate + CPI + 10Y on a single chart so I could see relevant periods in the past vs today.

Here's the two charts I've come up with (1970-1980's):
Screenshot 2022-10-30 at 20.48.58.png 323.7 KB


Recently:
Screenshot 2022-10-30 at 20.49.55.png 314.35 KB


My takeaways:
  • We haven’t even seen an uptick in unemployment (today)
  • CPI has cooled a little, but if you look back, it’s not uncommon for that to happen and then resume - especially if you’re not doing aggressive rate hikes (75bps is not aggressive)
  • The cheap money is switched off.  That’s not coming back for a long, long time - so that’s not what the market is after
  • What the market fears most: rising CPI + rising unemployment triggered by rate hikes.
  • When both of those are coming down, you’re getting a bull run you can tell your kids about
  • With them going up, you’re looking at 23-50% drop to the bottom.  We've seen that once already with the Dow - recent low: 28,600  (-22%); Currently: 32681 (-11%)
  • We’re in September/October 1973.
  • If we get the drop in November (more likely December) drop, then we know for sure
  • So what's the move? A few more weeks up before a big drop (15-20%), bounce half way back up the drop, volatile as hell for another 6 months before another big drop of (25%+), then if we see CPI coming back down AND unemployment going way up, we'll know it's the bottom.
  • I lost my mind a bit on this chart, so take it with a grain of salt.....but I'm playing it.


Helpful links

thebalancemoney.com/fed-funds-...
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/08/yield-curve.asp
https://www.ustreasuryyieldcurve.com/charts/treasuries-time-series+


1
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 22:49 PM - Oct 27 2022
by: samosa

Friday, October 28th, 2022 Market Preview

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I had an overnight swing with XOM calls and closed them out at the open for a nice gain. I needed that win. 
  • I am still holding SPX puts for March and I started building a position in NEM, a gold miner. 
  • I will look to do small scalps this week and next since we have a lot of landmines ahead. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

  • So AAPL and AMZN reported after the bell and it was pretty epic. AMZN had bad earnings and AAPL had pretty good report. The market is holding up pretty well after the carnage of AMZN, META, GOOGL, and MSFT this week. Honestly, how is the SPY even close to 380 is beyond me. 
  • I am going to look at buying the dip on Friday if PCE Core brings it down. I am starting to lean that JPow is a bullish event next week as everything the market is expecting is priced in until the CPI report in 2 weeks. 
  • NEM and GLD are looking really good for a long term hold with the DXY starting to crack. I am looking at adding some December 45c for NEM. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


Earnings this Week:

earnings-october-24.jpeg 273.93 KB
  • Highlights - UPS, MSFT, GOOG, V, BA, META, MCD, AAPL, AMZN, XOM - Buckle up!

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are neutral. 4 hour is close to overbought and Daily is still neutral. 
  • There is still bullish divergence on the 4 hour and daily chart. If SPY runs past 385 then we got a much larger divergence happening that would suggest a nice move up from a technical perspective. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line and 362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This is proving to be solid support now. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 359. The bulls need to keep this level.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 373 > 375 > 378 > 380 (major level) > 383 > 386 > 390
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
1
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 21:45 PM - Oct 27 2022
by: Maverick

Stock Market Day Ahead - October 28, 2022 - SPY 375/383 range; AAPL has spoken; Peak Inflation, Peak JPow, Peak Earnings bull run?

What Happened Today (Thursday)
  • SPY traded ~379 - 385 (regular session)
  • SPY traded ~374 - 380 (after hours)
  • It was a roller coaster of a day as expected - but one of the less wild ones lately.
  • ECB went with the 75bps - good move by them.
  • New Home sales data pushed us up to 385
  • Then we pretty much bled out in a straight line to the close at 380
  • Then it all went nuts again - AMZN was first out of the gate with a miss - dropped 20% in AH (around $225B market cap knocked off?)
  • AAPL closed at 145, reported at 4:30p and instantly went to 136.  That made no sense as I was reading the headlines (they beat overall despite some units missing), so I caught it bouncing at 139 and flipped it to 143 - that was fun - and quick.  Then AAPL jiggled for a bit, then ripped to 148 before collapsing to 139 again on “Q4 deceleration” which was a rare peek ahead for them (a warning that seemed to be looked over?).  I played that bounce briefly again. It ripped all the way back to 147.50 before closing at 145.35.  Incredible strength.
  • I picked up some XLE at around 90.30 - holding some oily bags for now, but I’m pretty confident oil has much more to go.



Thoughts - Technicals (Latest):
  • SPY levels:  373, 380, 386, 390, 396
  • Chart - Weekly: Neutral - we slammed into a ripster cloud I use - and popped off 200MA support (361).  Long ways to the 100MA (418)
  • Chart - Daily: Neutral - this could go either way, but I lean bullish.
  • Chart - 4h: neutral - same as daily
  • No surprise we were at neutral across the board heading into AAPL - because it really was the market direction decider…

Looking Ahead (Friday)
  • Earnings: Oil Gang (XOM, CVX, etc) + plenty more PM
  • Economic: Personal Spending  & PCE (!!!) 0830am EST
  • I can’t figure out what the market cares about right now.  I am not even sure the market itself knows what it cares about based on these huge intraday swings, every day.
  • Are we worried about JPow? Earnings? DXY? TNX?  There’s no clear input pushing the market.
  • I can’t make any sense out of SPY the last two days.  It should be well below 370 based on GOOGL, MSFT, META, AMZN flops.  We’re talking around half a trillion in market cap wiped out…and SPY barely budges?  Dow stuff hasn’t rallied THAT much…..
  • Right now in after hours , we’re barely down at all despite it touching 374 in afterhours - it’s now sitting at 379.  What am I missing here?
  • Personal Spending and PCE will be out Friday in premarket….more data coming in hot for us.
  • I will probably make some moves in the morning.
  • If we still care about the Fed - weak earnings = less aggressive Fed because "it's working"
  • If the Personal Spending eases up on Friday then it's another indicator Fed can ease up (they can't with low unemployment and STRONG consumer)


SPY | SPX Trading Plans (This Week)
  • If we somehow get a 3+ point dip at the open, I will close out 2 of those March 2023 puts - lock in the tiniest of profit.  I’ll hold one, just in case.
  • Then add some end of November calls.  With the way SPY is acting (ignoring earnings), VIX, TNX and DXY chilling out, this FOMC looks like a wildly bullish event coming up - at least the days leading up to it.  I’m thinking my Triple Peak (JPow Fear + Peak Earnings + Peak Inflation) is upon us - which is going to be one hell of a bull run to ride.
  • On the flip side - if VIX, TNX, DXY decide to wake up and catch up with what the hell is going on, then the gates of hell will open up.
  • Will meditate on a bean bag and decide what to do tomorrow.

1
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 21:02 PM - Oct 26 2022
by: Maverick

Stock Market Day Ahead - October 27, 2022 - SPY 380/393 range; AAPL and others report; Peak Inflation, Peak JPow, Peak Earnings?

What Happened Today (Wednesday)
  • SPY traded ~381 - 388
  • Another rollercoaster of a day.
  • Canada surprised with a smaller rate hike than expected — 50bps vs 75bps - that made the Pivot Gang happy
  • Then something happened around 11:30am EST to cause a sell off basically to day lows (open) again.  Still don’t know what that was. DXY and TNX didn’t appear to have anything to do with it.
  • I traded AAPL calls again for some lunch money; didn’t get out at the top, but still did good.
  • I traded 2DTE SPX calls, did fine with those as well - just scalping, nothing amazing.
  • We almost got to 390 where I’m going to buy my final SPX March 3400p 💀


Thoughts - Technicals (Latest):
  • SPY levels:  373, 380, 386, 390, 396
  • Chart - Weekly: Neutral - we slammed into a ripster cloud I use - and popped off 200MA (361).  Long ways to the 100MA (418)
  • Chart - Daily: Bullish - it still looks good for the bulls, especially if they can take 390 down.  Plenty of room on RSI/MACD.
  • Chart - 4h: neutral - looking topped out on the 4h. BUT this one loves to push beyond overbought/oversold.

Looking Ahead (Thursday)
  • Thursday: ECB rate hike at 815am  EST(0.75% expected); US GDP at 8:30am EST; ECB Conference @ 845am; Lagarde @ 10:15am EST
  • Earnings: Thursday is going to be epic.  I’m expecting the party to start in the morning with all this premarket data + loads of earnings reports.  Then we’ve got AAPL + AMZN in after hours (many more as well). Then we’ve got PCE on Friday premarket.  So whatever bets you make into Thursday’s close - GOOD LUCK TO YOU.
  • TNX and DXY are just slowly trickling down.  What is this telling us?  Are they just letting the bulls have their fun ahead of AAPL and JPow?  Is it over?  I doubt it…
  • I don’t see how inflation is put under control without the Fed Funds rate being above PCE - and we’re a couple points below it.
  • I do think JPow is going to dazzle us since the market has basically chopped since he has spoke to us and we’ve behaved - mostly.
  • I am feeling very bullish for the next few days, not because of earnings, but because maybe NOW we’re looking at Peak JPow Fear, Peak Earnings, Peak Inflation.  If not now, we’re really close.  Is this the final move up before the big collapse?  It’s sure feeling like that, against all sanity.


SPY | SPX Trading Plans (This Week)
  • I’m sitting on my three SPX 3/31/23 3400p - with a loss at the moment.  I am planning to add final one at 390.  HOWEVER, I’m having second thoughts about this ‘for now’ because I think AAPL is going to hit and we’re going to run like a bat out of hell into JPow. 400+
  • If AAPL misses on Thursday and we get a big dip on Friday morning, I’ll close them out (for a profit hopefully) and look to buy the Triple Peak I talked about above for a run into JPow. I would NOT hold through JPow though since he’s too big of a wildcard on the Q&A.
  • Thinking it all out, but this seems likely scenario for me on an AAPL miss.  AAPL hits?  Not sure what I’d do with the puts, but I’d buy calls for a JPow run.

1
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 08:21 AM - Oct 26 2022
by: samosa

Wednesday, October 26th, 2022 Market Preview

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I scalped some more XOM and AAPL calls yesterday. I re-entered the XOM calls and are still holding them. 
  • I grabbed a short term put on SPX. I will look to get out of this at the open. 
  • I did not add anymore to my core puts position. I am looking at adding another one at 386.
  • I will look to do small scalps this week and next since we have a lot of landmines ahead. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

  • DXY is really falling in futures behind the news that China was dumping the dollar. This will be a positive catalyst for commodities and stocks. 
  • I am looking at AAPL calls again today. Even though MSFT and GOOGL are down big after earnings yesterday, I expect the dip buyers to show up and grab AAPL heading into the earnings. The bulls are looking for any reason to buy, and I expect AAPL to start catching bids out the gate. 
  • NEM and GLD are looking really good for a long term hold with the DXY starting to crack. I am looking at adding some December 40c for NEM today. 
  • I still expect this week to be pretty choppy with a 10 point range forming until we get to AAPL's earnings on Thursday. 


What Am I Looking Out For This Week?  - 

  • All eyes on the big tech earnings this week. GOOGL, MSFT, META, AMZN, and AAPL all report within 48 hours of each other. 
  • AAPL's earnings will be the key for a trend setter moving forward. If AAPL reports stellar earnings, we got a rally that could last a few weeks until the CPI report on 11/10. If the earnings are terrible, could trigger a major sell off as the biggest company is showing cracks and gives us a hint that a major recession is already brewing. If AAPL comes in at expectations, I think you will see the market rally up a little as well. For Capitulation to happen, AAPL has to report poor earnings. So this could delay that event for another quarter. 
  • DXY has some catalysts this week with EU interest rate decisions on Thursday. Could be a negative catalyst for the dollar. 
  • If the DXY keeps falling, I will look at starting a position in GLD or NEM as I think Gold will start catching bids. I would like to grab a June 2023 ITM call and just forget about. Gold moves slowly, but in this environment, it could turn into a nice flight to safety if the DXY starts to drop. 
  • Wild card this week will be the PCE inflation data on Friday. This could spark a rally on its own if the data is cooler.  

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Fed Speakers are in a blackout period so we won't hear from them until 11/04. 
  • Wednesday - Building permits at 8:30am and New Home sales at 10am
  • Thursday - GDP data and Durable Home Goods at 8:30am
  • Thursday - 🇪🇺 ECB Interest Rate Hike Decision at 8:15. This is expected to be 75 BPS. 
  • Thursday - 🇪🇺 LaGarde Speaks at 10:15am
  • Thursday - 🇬🇧 BoE Woods Speaks
  • Friday - PCE inflation data at 8:30am  ⚠️

Earnings this Week:

earnings-october-24.jpeg 273.93 KB
  • Highlights - UPS, MSFT, GOOG, V, BA, META, MCD, AAPL, AMZN, XOM - Buckle up!

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are now overbought. 4 hour is close and Daily is still neutral. 
  • There is a potential major bullish divergence on the 4 hour and daily chart. If SPY runs past 385 then we got a much larger divergence happening that would suggest a nice move up from a technical perspective. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line and 362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This is proving to be solid support now. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 359. The bulls need to keep this level.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 373 > 375 > 378 > 380 (major level) > 383 > 386 > 390
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Patrick M

OUT SPY 409 Put 2022-06-03 @ $3.11
+59.49%
10:26 AM - Jun 01 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 409 Put 2022-06-03 @ 1.95
10:26 AM - Jun 01 2022
Trade By: Patrick M from the StonksChat Group

1
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
Patrick M - 1 year ago

OUT SPY @ 2.48
+40.11%
07:46 AM - Jun 01 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY @ 1.77
1st trade in 3 months 

07:45 AM - Jun 01 2022
Trade By: Patrick M from the StonksChat Group

0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT SPY 415 Call 2022-05-11 @ $8.48
+1.68%
Got lunch out it.

23:13 PM - May 03 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 415 Call 2022-05-11 @ 8.34
This is in line with my planned trade leaning green/calls.  Picked it up at 10am and traded it a couple times.

23:11 PM - May 03 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT SPY 410 Call 2022-05-11 @ $12.57
+34.73%
Stuck to the time size each time and managed to squeeze +3.20 out of it (overall).  I was waiting on that final hour rally all day - but it finally came - and it was beautiful.

22:48 PM - May 02 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 410 Call 2022-05-11 @ 9.33
Stuck to the plan from Sunday night of leaning calls, looking for little sparks.  This was my go to for the day.

22:45 PM - May 02 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT SPY 415 Call 2022-05-04 @ $4
-47.23%
22:43 PM - May 02 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 415 Call 2022-05-04 @ 7.58
I trade I got clubbed on last week; forgot to add.

22:43 PM - May 02 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: samosa

OUT SPY 500 Call 2022-07-15 @ $0.16
-91.58%
I capitulated on this one. David Hunter's melt up looks about as likely as having Salma Hayek be my future ex-wife. 

19:50 PM - May 02 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 500 Call 2022-07-15 @ 1.9
David Hunter's Melt Up
15:56 PM - Feb 26 2022
Trade By: samosa

0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: samosa

OUT SPY 440 Call 2022-05-04 @ $0.65
-48%
I capitulated on these calls at the bottom on Wednesday. Not proud of myself at all with these. I turned a green trade into a red one. 

05:27 AM - Apr 29 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 440 Call 2022-05-04 @ 1.25
Coming into today I wanted to play calls for a week or so out given how much the SPY and QQQ had dropped in the last 2 testing days. The reasoning here is that shorts are wildly profitable and will not risk losing that profit with Microsoft and Google earnings happening on Tuesday afterhours. They will close out the short and react to the earnings results. Let's see how this plays out. 

20:57 PM - Apr 25 2022
Trade By: samosa from the Bones Tradez Group

0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: samosa

OUT SPY 425 Call 2022-05-06 @ $4.23
-41.17%
I capitulated on these calls at the bottom on Wednesday. Not proud of myself at all with these. I turned a green trade into a red one. 

05:26 AM - Apr 29 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 425 Call 2022-05-06 @ 7.19
Playing a short covering rally heading into Tuesday's big tech earnings. 

20:58 PM - Apr 25 2022
Trade By: samosa from the Bones Tradez Group

0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT SPY 418 Call 2022-04-29 @ $8.53
+10.78%
Closed out 10 min later only to watch it run like a bat out of hell.  Kudos, SPY.  Good game.

Basically what I thought was going to happen today, happened - but at 12pm instead of the open.  I didn't play it as well as I should have, but still ended day nicely green.

22:35 PM - Apr 28 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 418 Call 2022-04-29 @ 7.7
I was really wanting to go in around 11am thinking my tingles were right....then 12pm happened and I was stunned like a fish. Gave up watching it and bought it a little before 1pm.

22:34 PM - Apr 28 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT SPY 418 Call 2022-04-29 @ $4.35
-15.53%
I was wrong...for now.

22:32 PM - Apr 28 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 418 Call 2022-04-29 @ 5.15
Around 10:30, I was getting tingly that the bottom was almost in. 

22:31 PM - Apr 28 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Nanidafuq?

OUT SPY 424 Call 2022-04-29 @ $4
+48.15%
Take profit hit

12:49 PM - Apr 28 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 424 Call 2022-04-29 @ 2.7
Breakout of resistance from yesterday and opening price.

12:48 PM - Apr 28 2022
Trade By: Nanidafuq? from the Bones Tradez Group

0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Nanidafuq?

OUT SPY 446 Call 2022-04-20 @ $1.17
+28.57%
Closed the trade as it was consolidating upward slowly, like a bear flag.

11:44 AM - Apr 20 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 446 Call 2022-04-20 @ 0.91
Entered at key support level

11:43 AM - Apr 20 2022
Trade By: Nanidafuq? from the Bones Tradez Group

1
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT SPY 435 Call 2022-04-22 @ $6
-4%
00:19 AM - Apr 19 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 435 Call 2022-04-22 @ 6.25
I was looking for QQQ to break 338, then I was going to buy QQQ puts - because it was going to hell if that broke.  That just barely didn't happen and the bearish sentiment was roaring, so I took a very small contrarian call position in the SPY to hold over long weekend.  Everybody is wound up after three days, and generally favors the upside - I'll be out at the open no matter what.

23:30 PM - Apr 14 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT SPY 450 Put 2022-04-29 @ $11.3
+1.62%
This ended up not being so bad in the end.  This was a miserable unrealized loss yesterday, ended up green at 12pm, so I was out. ✌️ It went on to close at 13.70 🤡 

23:27 PM - Apr 14 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 450 Put 2022-04-29 @ 11.12
Same on this one. I don't know what happened to me. The plan was to buy end of day on Thursday.  Not middle of the day on Wednesday in the middle of a run.  I expect the market to pullback further next week starting Monday, so not sweating it too much yet....but irritated at my entry here.

23:37 PM - Apr 13 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT SPY 445 Put 2022-04-29 @ $10.55
+3.94%
I was in awe of how great my entry was and how poor my exit was. 🤡

22:59 PM - Apr 12 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 445 Put 2022-04-29 @ 10.15
This one was on the 439 break.

22:58 PM - Apr 12 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT SPY 435 Call 2022-04-13 @ $4.5
+12.5%
22:54 PM - Apr 12 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 435 Call 2022-04-13 @ 4
This was a spicy trade end of day when it looked obvious it was going to move .50 to 1.  Don't try this at home.

22:54 PM - Apr 12 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT SPY 445 Put 2022-04-29 @ $9.16
-0.43%
This one grinded sideways on me, then I cut it before the big drop.  Grrr...

23:35 PM - Apr 11 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 445 Put 2022-04-29 @ 9.2
Traded in my 450p for 445p.  Price moved in right direction.

23:33 PM - Apr 11 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT SPY 450 Put 2022-04-29 @ $11.02
+9.11%
This went well (I traded it a few times during day - this was net return), but I was too chicken shit to hold it into final house - missed most of the upside.

23:32 PM - Apr 11 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 450 Put 2022-04-29 @ 10.1
I went into Monday with a negative bias and it was confirmed at the open - so picked some puts up.

23:30 PM - Apr 11 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT SPY 450 Put 2022-04-29 @ $8.3
-6.53%
That candle at 10:50am kicked me in the chin. I had to hold this one until final few minutes of the day just to get back to a small loss. Still tons of time on this contract, probably should have held over weekend, but I wanted a clear head for Monday. Took the L and moved on.
00:22 AM - Apr 11 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 450 Put 2022-04-29 @ 8.88
I ended up buying it back right at 1:45pm, as the SPY was just getting its momentum going.....then I just kept averaging down and the SPY just...kept...going. Might regret this one, but there's a decent amount of time on the clock and my bear claws are out.
00:36 AM - Apr 08 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Nanidafuq?

OUT SPY 445 Put 2022-04-08 @ $0.83
+1.22%
Stop limit order at breakeven too quickly.
10:01 AM - Apr 08 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 445 Put 2022-04-08 @ 0.82
Double Top formation (Pre-market) Level broke below support.
09:59 AM - Apr 08 2022
Trade By: Nanidafuq? from the Bones Tradez Group

0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT SPY 450 Put 2022-04-29 @ $9.75
+8.94%
Had a limit order in that hit. It kept ripping on to 11.
00:33 AM - Apr 08 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 450 Put 2022-04-29 @ 8.95
Picked this up about 10 min after the open. I was trying to hold off until later, but I wanted puts bad.
00:33 AM - Apr 08 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT SPY 444 Call 2022-04-08 @ $5.35
+8.08%
It ended up being my only good trade of the day. 😅
00:32 AM - Apr 08 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 444 Call 2022-04-08 @ 4.95
I finally gave up at almost 3pm watching it go straight up and took some calls. 🤷‍♂️
00:31 AM - Apr 08 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT SPY 450 Put 2022-04-29 @ $11.24
+12.4%
Traded this a few times today for a net of +1.24 on the position size.
00:26 AM - Apr 07 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 450 Put 2022-04-29 @ 10
Puts all day.... Note I've shifted to the 4/29 date. I'll be using this one for SPY for next few days.
00:22 AM - Apr 07 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

1
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: K White

OUT SPY 444 Put 2022-04-08 @ $2.72
+9.68%
Just a quick scalp here during FOMC. Played with some size so was ready to cut if invalidated. Trade lasted about 1 minute resulting in a $600 gain.
22:00 PM - Apr 06 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 444 Put 2022-04-08 @ 2.48
Played at 1:20 central time during FOMC. Typically which ever way we start we tend to rip the other way. Played with some size here and just looking for a scalp. +$600 on the trade.
21:59 PM - Apr 06 2022
Trade By: K White from the KWhite Group

2
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT SPY 455 Put 2022-04-14 @ $6.17
+8.44%
Not bad, but another golden ticket...
01:15 AM - Apr 06 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 455 Put 2022-04-14 @ 5.69
01:12 AM - Apr 06 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 Trade - Sell
- 1 year ago by: Maverick

OUT SPY 460 Put 2022-04-14 @ $6.15
+10.22%
This is the strike/date I'm focused on for the next few days. I'll be back in this on Thursday afternoon.
00:23 AM - Mar 31 2022
Original Trade Info:
BOT: SPY 460 Put 2022-04-14 @ 5.58
00:22 AM - Mar 31 2022
Trade By: Maverick from the Maverick's Moves Group

0

SPDR S&P 500 - SPY

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