Market Update: March 30, 2022 - Strong SPY Close to End Quarter?
From Wednesday's update:
“SPY - I am looking at puts on Wednesday. We’re at an interesting cross roads here. There’s CPE data on Thursday morning, which also happens to be March 31, the end of the quarter. There could be a coutner-balance of selling the CPE data and funds painting the tape.
If SPY doesn’t crack on Thursday, I think it pulls back a lot on Friday at the latest. I’ll have puts for sure on Thursday afternoon if it runs into the close.
SPY chart is very overbought in 30m and approaching that zone on the daily - it’s going to pullback, I don’t care how optimistic retail is right now. See above for the charts.”
What Happened Today (Wednesday)
- $SPY was indeed a slow slide all day from 461 to 456 - right up until 3:30pm EST - then it clawed back almost 3 points in 30 min to close at 458.70. I did OK, should have done better since it was on my bingo card.
- AAPL - that green streak ended…finally.
- $LAC - I caught it at 34, sold at 35 - I had no reason, just put in a limit order. It ran to almost 39! one we’ve been talking about here for weeks. it went heavily into overbought zone, but this one is normally pretty quick to pullback and resume. keep an eye out for just that.
- $SOL ran to 125 on me. Sold yesterday at 113. Damnit. It’s my favorite crypto for sure.
- Russia/Ukraine - I didn't see any major changes here, except some US skepticism (correct, IMO)
- $MOS - I exited with a small loss today, really just to de-risk and let it work out those technicals a bit more. The Ukraine/Russia situation is a gamble either way on narrative right now (I don’t think Putin is actually pulling out). I’m going to let it play out, then ride the wave. No reason in being silly with options in this market. I’ll push the date out as well. 4/14 right around corner now.
Looking Ahead (Thursday)
- As is typical for Thursdays - this is the day. Core PCE data comes out at 8:30am EST. If anything is going to move the market this week, it’s this. I have no open positions, so I’m just going to see how it plays out. Most likely? It’ll just be ignored and off we go. 🤷
- We either got a preview of the pullback today - or it started today. We’ll see tomorrow.
- I’ve got no specific stocks on my watchlist for Thursday right now. They've all gone nuts at this point and need to cool off.
- I’m looking at SPY calls after 12pm EST if the market starts turning up going into the close - I’m expecting a strong close for end of month & quarter - huge capital inflows to the market.
- Then I’ll be looking to swap them out for SPY puts right at the close if we get a strong green close - I’ll be expecting a pullback on Friday / Monday that’s due.
- Several "if" caveats….
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Maverick's Moves
| Created By: | Maverick |
| Created: | Feb 8, 2021 |
| Total Followers: | 13 |
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I trade SPY, QQQ, and specific story sectors using technical analysis and gut rubs.
I'll post my thoughts and market moves here.
Twitter: twitter.com/stonks_maverick
Substack: mavericksmoves.substack.com
I'll post my thoughts and market moves here.
Twitter: twitter.com/stonks_maverick
Substack: mavericksmoves.substack.com