SPY - SPDR S&P 500 21:34 PM - Oct 11 2022
by: Maverick

Stock Market Day Ahead - October 12, 2022 - SPY 355/363 range; UK Data + US PPI; get setup for CPI on Thursday.

What Happened Today (Tuesday)
  • SPY traded 355.71 - 363.03 (-2.28 on the day)
  • I was up $800 exiting those calls and puts at two different points today; then caught a ride on that afternoon dip with some quick puts get me to +$1100 for the day.  Good ‘nuff.
  • BoE sent a clear message “Bank of England's Bailey tells pension funds they have 3 days to rebalance” || “And my message to the funds involved and all the firms involved managing those funds: You've got three days left now. You've got to get this done." that sent US market on that afternoon ride.
  • DXY holding the line, TNX pushed higher - I expect it over 40 (4%) this week.  It’s speaking to us.

Technicals (Latest)
  • SPY levels:  350, 355, 358, 363, 373
  • Chart - Weekly: Bearish - More down still to go…
  • Chart - Daily: Bearish - more to go.
  • Chart - 4h: Bearish - same, more to go - 350?

Looking Ahead (Wednesday)
  • I expect TNX to continue to move up and DXY will react to CPI (maybe PPI)
  • PPI comes before CPI this time, which has me wondering if all the CPI effect will happen in the PPI?  I don’t think so, but it’s worth noting.
  • VIX continues to help the bulls out.
  • We’ve got lots of market data on Wednesday: UK GDP, UK BOE Minutes in premarket; US PPI at 830am; ECB Lagarde 9:30am; FOMC MINUTES at 2pm
  • REMINDER: CPI is on Thursday - prepare your trade!

SPY | SPX Trading Plans (Wednesday)
  • I held nothing overnight.  I’ve been AFK quite a bit.
  • I doubt I will play anything on Wednesday.  I’m focused on setting up my strangle for Thursday’s CPI print.
  • As long as PPI doesn’t do something unexpected, I’m hoping the market moves up on Wednesday.  That would make the technicals even better going into CPI because they’ll be prime to go in either direction pretty hard on a strong print hot or cool.
  • I’ll be doing this at 3pm EST using Friday expiration calls/puts for SPX.  If the market makes a big move in the last hour (de-risking), I will take the profit and rebalance in afterhours.  If it doesn’t move at all, I’m setup and ready to rock.

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SPDR S&P 500 - SPY

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