Tuesday: UPS and KO in PM; GOOGL, V in AH (many more, but these are most important)
Wednesday: F, MSFT, META in AH
Thursday: MA, MCD in PM; AAPL, AMZN in AH (!!!) (there’s tons more today…)
Friday: Oil Gang (XOM, CVX, etc) + plenty more PM
Thoughts - General:
Last week: I didn’t have much to say beyond October 18 and my trading reflected that. I got caught up on Friday, however, standing in front of the bull train and ended up with some hefty bags to hold over weekend that is making me question myself. The tape going against you does that, even if there was no fundamental change. Or was there? That Friday WSJ article + Daly seemed…odd.
My last report covered the week and played out well - and I’d have been sitting pretty had I went bowling on Friday instead https://stonks.chat/symbol/SPY/posts/282
Looking at the economic calendar and the earnings calendar……you can’t help but be in the action, but you probably shouldn’t. The right move is to just let all this play out and pick its direction, then jump on board on Friday morning - because wherever AAPL sends us on Thursday where we’re going for a while.
This is the week we’ve been waiting for, though — we’re either going into FOMC with the bulls raging (390+) or the bears feasting (360).
There’s piles of economic data coming out from the US to Europe. I don’t see how the VIX doesn’t spike on volatility — it’s going to be there.
With Gold on the move a little bit (bottom in finally?), the DXY might lose its signaling importance slowly - but not quite yet. TNX remains incredibly important and is basically sitting at highs screaming at us.
OIL Is just going to keep going up with the SPR getting depleted, the US is going to have to buy huge amounts soon. This has inflation impacts and is part of why many people are saying that even if CPI/PCE does cool for a report or two, it’s not peak yet.
Friday: PCE again? Already? It seems like we just did this rodeo a few days ago. Personal spending should be strong based on what banks said. Good for earnings, bad for Fed.
Samosa made a key point about this upcoming FOMC. We know it’s 75bps. What we don’t know is guidance for December. They’re either going to crush bulls and say 75bps minimum OR give a nod to slowing down. I do not see how they can slow down with stubborn employment and inflation STILL. They are going to need to get the Funds rate above PCE at least…and that’s at 5%. So 6%? 7%? What’s needed? I just don’t buy the slowdown theory right now. We won’t have an updated dot plot until December (which is what brought the market down last time), so if JPow doesn’t come in hot and no dot plots, it’s going to rip up massively in the short-term.
I keep saying this the last two weeks, but saying it again - something is going to break in the global financial system and it’s not going to be pretty. I have a couple guesses where it’s going to be, but it’s going to be big and matter.
Thoughts - Technicals:
SPY levels: 357, 363, 373, 380, 386, 390
Chart - Weekly: Neutral - we got the bounce last week as expected - this week it should continue, but I don’t see it reversing the long-term weekly chart. We march on…
Chart - Daily: Bullish - it’s clear for a run that started on Friday. 390 max?
Chart - 4h: Bullish - same.
Trading Plan (Monday):
Current position: some SPX 3600p 11/30 that I’m bag holding after Friday’s train running me over. 🤡
What I’m thinking is to slowly roll those bags into March 2023 3300/3400p because if AAPL doesn’t crack this quarter, then it’s next quarter. It’s happening, just a matter of when.
Then just trade 2 week calls off key support lines on this bullish momentum.
Putting the long-term SPY chart below just so you can see where we are on the projected path…. ( I’ve got March 2023 @ SPY 327)
