SPY - SPDR S&P 500 22:48 PM - Oct 24 2022
by: Maverick

Stock Market Day Ahead - October 25, 2022 - SPY 373/383 range; it’s still up to the bulls with these earnings….

What Happened Today (Monday)
  • SPY traded ~373 - 380
  • Sunday futures we went from 377 to 372 to open at 378
  • Then we dove to 373, only to go all the way to 380 just before the close
  • Totally healthy.  Everything’s fine!  Riiiiiight.
  • You’d need the luck of the Irish to trade this crazy thing.  Pick your side and at some point in the day, you’re likely to be right again.
  • There was no major news that I saw today.
  • I sold my November 30 puts for a chunky loss (from Friday), swapped them out for March 2023 3400p.  I can stomach holding these for the big fall I’m expecting this quarter or next.
  • I traded some AAPL calls for the 150 break.  Didn’t hold long enough, as always, but I did make a nice little profit.


Thoughts - Technicals (Latest):
  • SPY levels:  357, 363, 373, 380, 386, 390
  • Chart - Weekly: Neutral - the bounce continued today as expected, but I don’t see it reversing the long-term weekly chart.
  • Chart - Daily: Bullish - it’s clear for a run that started on Friday.  390 max?
  • Chart - 4h: Bullish - same.

Looking Ahead (Tuesday)
  • Earnings: The party gets started on Tuesday with UPS and KO (among others) in the morning; and GOOGL and V in the evening.  I’m expecting upbeat from tech; warnings from non-tech.
  • TNX on a warpath to 45 (4.5% 10Y).  SPY is showing it no respect right now.
  • DXY was glued to 112 today.  It sure looked nice at 114 Friday.  I suspect it’s going to head back up there after this week.
  • Tuesday: UK Business Optimism @ 6am EST; US Consumer Confidence @ 10am EST
  • I hope you’re all strapped in for Thursday - it’s going to be buck wild from premarket to overnight…


SPY | SPX Trading Plans (This Week)
  • I’m going to sit on my two SPX 3/31/23 3400p.  I don’t anticipate selling these until the bottom falls out.  I’ll add more at 385 and 390.  Above 390, I’ll just stop buying and start crying.
  • I’ll look for more call opportunities on earnings optimism and probably AAPL again - 150 was tagged today and 155 is possible before ER on Thursday.
  • XOM calls look good for a trade into Friday.
  • Reminder: NEVER hold through earnings.

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SPDR S&P 500 - SPY

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