Stock Market Day Ahead - October 25, 2022 - SPY 373/383 range; it’s still up to the bulls with these earnings….
What Happened Today (Monday)
- SPY traded ~373 - 380
- Sunday futures we went from 377 to 372 to open at 378
- Then we dove to 373, only to go all the way to 380 just before the close
- Totally healthy. Everything’s fine! Riiiiiight.
- You’d need the luck of the Irish to trade this crazy thing. Pick your side and at some point in the day, you’re likely to be right again.
- There was no major news that I saw today.
- I sold my November 30 puts for a chunky loss (from Friday), swapped them out for March 2023 3400p. I can stomach holding these for the big fall I’m expecting this quarter or next.
- I traded some AAPL calls for the 150 break. Didn’t hold long enough, as always, but I did make a nice little profit.
Thoughts - Technicals (Latest):
- SPY levels: 357, 363, 373, 380, 386, 390
- Chart - Weekly: Neutral - the bounce continued today as expected, but I don’t see it reversing the long-term weekly chart.
- Chart - Daily: Bullish - it’s clear for a run that started on Friday. 390 max?
- Chart - 4h: Bullish - same.
Looking Ahead (Tuesday)
- Earnings: The party gets started on Tuesday with UPS and KO (among others) in the morning; and GOOGL and V in the evening. I’m expecting upbeat from tech; warnings from non-tech.
- TNX on a warpath to 45 (4.5% 10Y). SPY is showing it no respect right now.
- DXY was glued to 112 today. It sure looked nice at 114 Friday. I suspect it’s going to head back up there after this week.
- Tuesday: UK Business Optimism @ 6am EST; US Consumer Confidence @ 10am EST
- I hope you’re all strapped in for Thursday - it’s going to be buck wild from premarket to overnight…
SPY | SPX Trading Plans (This Week)
- I’m going to sit on my two SPX 3/31/23 3400p. I don’t anticipate selling these until the bottom falls out. I’ll add more at 385 and 390. Above 390, I’ll just stop buying and start crying.
- I’ll look for more call opportunities on earnings optimism and probably AAPL again - 150 was tagged today and 155 is possible before ER on Thursday.
- XOM calls look good for a trade into Friday.
- Reminder: NEVER hold through earnings.
SPDR S&P 500 - SPY
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