SPY - SPDR S&P 500 20:43 PM - Oct 25 2022
by: Maverick

Stock Market Day Ahead - October 26, 2022 - SPY 380/385 range; it’s not over until AAPL speaks..Thursday is a 🎢

What Happened Today (Tuesday)
  • SPY traded ~379 - 385
  • We had good earnings in premarket
  • The bulls were in charge since premarket and that didn’t change right into the close.
  • Then. tech whiffed in afterhours (opposite of what I expected - see how terrible I am at earnings/analysts/nonsense)
  • MSFT and GOOGL both took a small whipping in AH; it brought the SPY down almost 4 points so far.
  • DXY fell over a point which helped fuel the rally
  • TNX eased up a full 2 points over the last two days - again, more fuel for the rally
  • AAPL just kept pushing - hitting 152.49 at the high today
  • I wasn’t able to play today, but I did pick up another SPX 3400p at 385 as I noted I would.  I’ll buy the next one at 390.


Thoughts - Technicals (Latest):
  • SPY levels:  357, 363, 373, 380, 386, 390
  • Chart - Weekly: Neutral - the bounce continued today as expected, but I don’t see it reversing the long-term weekly chart.
  • Chart - Daily: Bullish - it’s clear for STILL continuing the run started on Friday.  390 max?
  • Chart - 4h: Bullish - same.
  • Note: After hours earnings (not reflected in charts yet) may pause the run - at least at the open.

Looking Ahead (Wednesday)
  • Earnings: The party got a little turd in the punchbowl with MSFT and GOOGL tonight; but I don’t think that’s going to slow down AAPL much (Thursday).  Not much exciting for earnings on Wednesday.  It’s all about Thursday between the troves of economic data and all the companies reporting.  BRACE YOURSELF.
  • I’m really struggling to know what to do ahead of AAPL and JPow.  There’s signs in the economy that it’s cracking (housing, SOME earnings - good for Fed slowing down), but there’s signs it’s not slowing down at all (consumer spending, unemployment, CPI, PCE - requires aggressive Fed).
  • The only thing I’m comfortable to sleep with at night is long-term puts (March 2023), so I’m going to keep doing that.
  • I’ll continue to trade short-term calls (closing out by EOD) on any optimism, like AAPL.  I still think we’re going to see AAPL 155 by earnings.
  • If AAPL sends it on Thursday night, we’ll be over 390 and going into JPow with swagger near 400.  Is that good?  It is if you’re playing calls from 380, but not so sure if you’re holding long positions.
  • I’m so interested to see what DXY and TNX do as we get closer to JPow Day.


SPY | SPX Trading Plans (This Week)
  • I’m going to sit on my two three SPX 3/31/23 3400p.  I don’t anticipate selling these until the bottom falls out.  I’ll add another at 390 and 400.  Above 400, I’m calling it and just sitting tight.
  • I’ll look for more call opportunities on earnings optimism and probably AAPL again - 150 held today 155 is possible before ER on Thursday.
  • Reminder: NEVER hold through earnings.

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SPDR S&P 500 - SPY

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