• SPY traded ~381 - 388
• Another rollercoaster of a day.
• Canada surprised with a smaller rate hike than expected — 50bps vs 75bps - that made the Pivot Gang happy
• Then something happened around 11:30am EST to cause a sell off basically to day lows (open) again.  Still don’t know what that was. DXY and TNX didn’t appear to have anything to do with it.
• I traded AAPL calls again for some lunch money; didn’t get out at the top, but still did good.
• I traded 2DTE SPX calls, did fine with those as well - just scalping, nothing amazing.
• We almost got to 390 where I’m going to buy my final SPX March 3400p 💀

• SPY levels:  373, 380, 386, 390, 396
• Chart - Weekly: Neutral - we slammed into a ripster cloud I use - and popped off 200MA (361).  Long ways to the 100MA (418)
• Chart - Daily: Bullish - it still looks good for the bulls, especially if they can take 390 down.  Plenty of room on RSI/MACD.
• Chart - 4h: neutral - looking topped out on the 4h. BUT this one loves to push beyond overbought/oversold.

• Thursday: ECB rate hike at 815am  EST(0.75% expected); US GDP at 8:30am EST; ECB Conference @ 845am; Lagarde @ 10:15am EST
• Earnings: Thursday is going to be epic.  I’m expecting the party to start in the morning with all this premarket data + loads of earnings reports.  Then we’ve got AAPL + AMZN in after hours (many more as well). Then we’ve got PCE on Friday premarket.  So whatever bets you make into Thursday’s close - GOOD LUCK TO YOU.
• TNX and DXY are just slowly trickling down.  What is this telling us?  Are they just letting the bulls have their fun ahead of AAPL and JPow?  Is it over?  I doubt it…
• I don’t see how inflation is put under control without the Fed Funds rate being above PCE - and we’re a couple points below it.
• I do think JPow is going to dazzle us since the market has basically chopped since he has spoke to us and we’ve behaved - mostly.
• I am feeling very bullish for the next few days, not because of earnings, but because maybe NOW we’re looking at Peak JPow Fear, Peak Earnings, Peak Inflation.  If not now, we’re really close.  Is this the final move up before the big collapse?  It’s sure feeling like that, against all sanity.

• I’m sitting on my three SPX 3/31/23 3400p - with a loss at the moment.  I am planning to add final one at 390.  HOWEVER, I’m having second thoughts about this ‘for now’ because I think AAPL is going to hit and we’re going to run like a bat out of hell into JPow. 400+
• If AAPL misses on Thursday and we get a big dip on Friday morning, I’ll close them out (for a profit hopefully) and look to buy the Triple Peak I talked about above for a run into JPow. I would NOT hold through JPow though since he’s too big of a wildcard on the Q&A.
• Thinking it all out, but this seems likely scenario for me on an AAPL miss.  AAPL hits?  Not sure what I’d do with the puts, but I’d buy calls for a JPow run.