• SPY traded ~379 - 385 (regular session)
• SPY traded ~374 - 380 (after hours)
• It was a roller coaster of a day as expected - but one of the less wild ones lately.
• ECB went with the 75bps - good move by them.
• New Home sales data pushed us up to 385
• Then we pretty much bled out in a straight line to the close at 380
• Then it all went nuts again - AMZN was first out of the gate with a miss - dropped 20% in AH (around $225B market cap knocked off?)
• AAPL closed at 145, reported at 4:30p and instantly went to 136.  That made no sense as I was reading the headlines (they beat overall despite some units missing), so I caught it bouncing at 139 and flipped it to 143 - that was fun - and quick.  Then AAPL jiggled for a bit, then ripped to 148 before collapsing to 139 again on “Q4 deceleration” which was a rare peek ahead for them (a warning that seemed to be looked over?).  I played that bounce briefly again. It ripped all the way back to 147.50 before closing at 145.35.  Incredible strength.
• I picked up some XLE at around 90.30 - holding some oily bags for now, but I’m pretty confident oil has much more to go.

• SPY levels:  373, 380, 386, 390, 396
• Chart - Weekly: Neutral - we slammed into a ripster cloud I use - and popped off 200MA support (361).  Long ways to the 100MA (418)
• Chart - Daily: Neutral - this could go either way, but I lean bullish.
• Chart - 4h: neutral - same as daily
• No surprise we were at neutral across the board heading into AAPL - because it really was the market direction decider…

• Earnings: Oil Gang (XOM, CVX, etc) + plenty more PM
• Economic: Personal Spending  & PCE (!!!) 0830am EST
• I can’t figure out what the market cares about right now.  I am not even sure the market itself knows what it cares about based on these huge intraday swings, every day.
• Are we worried about JPow? Earnings? DXY? TNX?  There’s no clear input pushing the market.
• I can’t make any sense out of SPY the last two days.  It should be well below 370 based on GOOGL, MSFT, META, AMZN flops.  We’re talking around half a trillion in market cap wiped out…and SPY barely budges?  Dow stuff hasn’t rallied THAT much…..
• Right now in after hours , we’re barely down at all despite it touching 374 in afterhours - it’s now sitting at 379.  What am I missing here?
• Personal Spending and PCE will be out Friday in premarket….more data coming in hot for us.
• I will probably make some moves in the morning.
• If we still care about the Fed - weak earnings = less aggressive Fed because "it's working"
• If the Personal Spending eases up on Friday then it's another indicator Fed can ease up (they can't with low unemployment and STRONG consumer)

• If we somehow get a 3+ point dip at the open, I will close out 2 of those March 2023 puts - lock in the tiniest of profit.  I’ll hold one, just in case.
• Then add some end of November calls.  With the way SPY is acting (ignoring earnings), VIX, TNX and DXY chilling out, this FOMC looks like a wildly bullish event coming up - at least the days leading up to it.  I’m thinking my Triple Peak (JPow Fear + Peak Earnings + Peak Inflation) is upon us - which is going to be one hell of a bull run to ride.
• On the flip side - if VIX, TNX, DXY decide to wake up and catch up with what the hell is going on, then the gates of hell will open up.
• Will meditate on a bean bag and decide what to do tomorrow.