SPY - SPDR S&P 500 19:45 PM - Jan 22 2023
by: Maverick

Stock Market - Week Ahead: January 23, 2023 - SPY 393/405 range; bulls in charge.

Economic Calendar
  • Monday: Nothing.
  • Tuesday:  PMI Services @ 0945
  • Wednesday: Nothing.
  • Thursday:  Jobless claims, Goods, GDP, Chicago data @ 0830
  • Friday: PCE, Spending @ 0830, UMich 10am (!!)

Earnings Calendar
  • Tuesday: Some industrials in premarket; MSFT in afterhours (!!)
  • Wednesday: TSLA afterhours
  • Thursday: Mastercard premarket, Visa afterhours
  • Friday: Oil companies premarket

Market Thoughts:
  • Last week:  SPY was 387-400 - my prediction was 390-402 — not bad!  I had a nice week overall, I ticked up against last week.  I’ve been trading almost exclusively ES and NQ.  They’re easier to trade - and hod - than SPX options, so far.  I missed out on untold amounts of money by calling the move, but not holding through it (typically being early and then jumping out at first sign of profit).  I’ve got to believe in the trades more to optimize my profit.
  • Economic Calendar:  Bulls have a clear run until Thursday morning.  Only thing they’ll battle is technicals at 400, 405.  Friday with PCE + UMich will make the market dance.
  • Earnings: MSFT could be a trend setter -  in either direction.  I wouldn’t be caught holding a position into those earnings, but just wait to see what they say.  It’s likely to be bullish event with the layoffs (good for profit), but any strong warnings could go a long ways. TSLA I don’t think matters for bears, will only help bulls. 
  • The move on Friday for SPY/QQQ was impressive, BUT….it was a mechanical day (OpEx for January) and low volume Friday as always.  It was a bull’s dream.  It skipped right over some lines that are normally respected and at 396 (close), it may have to pay its respects to get over that.  We could see a pullback to 393 before it charges on.  If it doesn’t and just heads to 400 again, I won’t be surprised at all.
  • After we see if 396 is is easy to take down - or is tough resistance - then I’m on the bull train for Mon & Tuesday.  The rest of the week, will be data dependent.
  • SPY 396 is also the 200MA
  • SPY range this week (guess): 393 - 405
  • Overall, I remain bearish for the year.  
  • For the short-term however, we’re going into earnings season, there will be more layoffs announced which are good - for now - for companies.  The unemployment numbers haven’t spiked yet and inflation is coming down — so the sentiment strongly favors the bulls. 
  • I’m looking for a run to SPY 420-430 before it gets smacked down hard by rising unemployment and no chance of the Fed cutting rates until end of year at earliest.  New SPY lows are coming

Technicals (Latest):
  • SPY levels:  390, 396, 400, 405
  • 200 MA: 396.02

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: I’m holding nothing.  I scalped 20 points out of NQ shortly after the open.
  • I’m looking to see what SPY 396 does.
  • If it goes back to 393 I’ll go long NQ.
  • If it jumps right over it to 397, I’ll go long NQ.
  • I’ll be out ahead of MSFT, then decide next move after that.  PCE, same plan.

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SPDR S&P 500 - SPY

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