What Happened? - 

• Friday was a big option expiration day and we saw some spurts of volume show up randomly thoughout the day. 
• The range was 382 to 386 with us closing near the highs of the day, however this did not feel like a bullish day as there was no test of the 390 level. 
• All in all, Friday was an outlier type day due to the option expiration volatility and nothing really changed in my thesis. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

• Monday - Nothing
• Tuesday - Housing Data with permits and housing starts at 8:30am EST
• Wednesday - EU rate hike decision at 3am
• Wednesday - Existing Home Sales at 10am EST
• Wednesday - FOMC statement and press conference starting at 2pm.  This is the major event of the week. 
• Thursday - UK Rate Hike Decision at 7:00am EST
• Thursday - COST and FDX earnings afterhours. 
• Friday - JPow with another speech at 2:00pm EST. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• I sold my long term SPX puts for a nice gain at the open and sat on my hands all day. I re-entered some puts at the close for October for 3800. I have a nice amount and will most likely sell before JPow. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour and 4 hour are slightly under an oversold reading. The Daily is neutral. 
• SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 390 is the .236 and 407 is the .382.
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 and 418 is the .286. 
• The 390 level has been broken and we did not test it at all on Friday. I anticipate we do get another test of the 390 level soon, but right now I am focused on whether the market will hold onto the next major level at 380. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

• Monday and Tuesday really seem like a do nothing day. If you are holding puts and you have time on them, then you should be ok even if the market decides to bounce a little above 390. If 393 is recaptured, I may just take the loss on my puts and wait until after FOMC and fade any rip we get on that day. 
• For traders like myself who only play the indices, the start of this week is going to be boring. The traders will want to concentrate on individual tickers to start the week and ignore the indices as they will most likely be chop until Wednesday. 
• There is no scenario where I will play calls until FOMC.  
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
• This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 380 > 383 > 387 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 404.40