samosa
Created: Jun 21, 2020
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 7 months ago
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - April 16th, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

Sorry for the lack of preview last week. I was traveling for the holiday and was playing catch up all week long. Last week was filled with important marco data from the CPI and PPI to Retail Sales and Bank Earnings. But it was one report that caught the market off guard a bit... that sneaky UoM consumer index report.  The CPI came in sticky, and PPI saw a nice drawdown. Retail Sales came in weak and the UoM report showed a shocking number for the 1 year inflation expectations. Expectations for the number were 3.5%, it came in at 4.6%. The market took a moment to digest it, and then began to sell off on Friday. Throughout the week, dip buyers showed up in full force on the bigger dips, and Friday was no different. We rallied at the end of the day and say us almost finish green for QQQ. 

So let's revisit the bullish and bearish arguments and see how each have changed. 

Bullish Thesis - 

  • 2 Week Outlook
    • PPI came in nice and cool and is considered a leading indicator. We got 25 BPS hike pretty much confirmed with the Jobs data and CPI data, and the market is handling it well. We have taken all the hits from the bears and are still consolidating above 405 and 410. Market is holding up well and not sure what more ammunition the bears have to drag the market down.  We do have major earnings coming up, so we have to be cautious getting too bullish. 
  • 1 Month Outlook 
    • The Fed is set to raise one more time in May and then they will pause. Once the pause is confirmed, we will see a blast higher just on the optimism that the Fed is out of the way. JPow has been clear that he does not want to start, stop, start, stop so once he pauses, he is done for a few meetings. Remember, bulls don't care about inflation, they care about the Fed's reaction to inflation. 
  • 3 Month Outlook
    • If the Fed pauses soon, then we know that only a natural recession will bring the markets down. The Fed will not manufacture the recession and it will be up to whether inflation can stay back long enough for the consumer to stay strong. The theory here is that inflation is and was ultimately a supply side issue and those issues would be resolved by then. If this is the case, and inflation starts to slightly tick down while the Fed has paused, the market will explode higher as they will anticipate that a major recession will not happen. It will only crash or come down once the consumer has slowed down by the sticky inflation, thus causing an economic recession. 

Bearish Thesis - 

  • 2 Week outlook 
    • The market has been range bound for 2 weeks and the momentum in this rally is starting to stall. There is bearish divergence on the daily chart for QQQ and a bearish PPO crossover, so the technicals are saying this rally is on its last legs and is ready to start trending down. The bulls priced in a pause in the May FOMC meeting, and now it looks like 25 BPS is heavily expected. With that rate hike, the bulls have to delay their delusional fantasy of a summer rate cut. 
  • 1 month outlook 
    • Dip buyers are keeping this market up, so to breakdown and create a trend long enough to last a few weeks, the bears need a major gap down. What could cause this? Well, any horrible earnings from big tech could do it. I am not seeing any macro data in the next 2 weeks that will cause it, so it will need to be from the earnings reports or from the geopolitical spectrum. Maybe the rise of the DXY again?
  • 3 months+ outlook 
    • Regardless of the Fed's decision in May, the data is showing that inflation is sticking. So inflation is showing that it is control, so no matter how the market wants to spin the narrative, if inflation is not dealt with, it will crush the consumer. There is no magic bullet that will get it under control outside of a recession. So bears are playing for the inevitable recession. 

I do not agree with one side of this narrative, but it is important to present all sides of the argument. Over the next few weeks, I will keep building and updating these narratives. 

My Prediction - 

I have been mainly playing tech so I am going to stick with that in my updates below. QQQ has been on a crazy run this year and it will be the reason for the next major move in the SPY, so I want to keep track of that closely.  I am looking for the DXY to rebound sharply with the House Majority Leader McCarthy set to unveil the Republicans demands for agreeing to raise the debt ceiling. This should put a little more faith in the DXY. If the DXY does rebound higher, I am expecting the QQQ to break under 313 support and start another range bound trade from 306 to 313. 
If the market gets strong earnings reports from NFLX and TSLA this week, I think we will see QQQ break the 323 level and ultimately hit 330 as earnings optimism will be in full force. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here:  stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Monday - ECB LaGarde Speaking at 11:00am (DXY implications)
  • Tuesday - Building Permits and Housing Data at 8:30am
  • Wednesday - UK Inflation Report at 2:00am (DXY implications)
  • Wednesday - EU Inflation Report at 5:00am (DXY implications)
  • Thursday - Jobless Claims at 8:30am
  • Friday - US PMI Data at 9:45am

Earnings This Week:
FtsmURhX0A4kPx7.jpeg 252.42 KB

Current Positions and Plays -

  • I am net short on the market with positions in MNQ, QQQ June puts, NEM, GE, NVDA, BX. And I have longer dated calls for KR, CAG, and UUP. 
  • I will look at closing most of my puts this week if we do not show some type of weakness in the market. We have just been range bound for 2 weeks, and I entered roughly in the middle of the range. So I need to see some movement this week in my favor, or I will close out and reset. 

QQQ Technicals - 

  • QQQ Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily are above neutral.
  • QQQ has been trading in a range for 2 weeks. So it is all about 2 levels to see if they hold as support/resistance. 313 is support and 323 is resistance. If either one of those breaks, we will see a nice 5-8 point move in the direction of the break. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $QQQ  - levels 313 (major), 316, 320, 323
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 8 months ago
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - April 3rd, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

SPY had a range of 393 to 409 with a close at 409. No sugar coating this one, it was a bullish breakout through a few key levels. We had a small pullback at a key level to 393 and just took off to break 400 and almost hit 410 in 3 trading days. Why did it move up that violently? No major news until Friday and the PCE data came in slightly under expectations and it was blast off time. Bears are capitulating, bulls are euphoric. Not a great time for a guy holding puts on QQQ. 

So the question is, are we witnessing the start of a much larger, sustainable move to the upside? Let's revisit the bullish and bearish arguments.  

Bullish Thesis - 

  • 2 Week Outlook
    • With inflation coming down, the possibility of a Fed pause coming in a month, a continued strong consumer, and low unemployment currently, it is hard to argue that the conditions currently are favoring the bulls. With the Fed set to pause soon, the inflation fears are starting to settle down so what can bring down the market? Sticky inflation is present, but it is not slowing down the consumer too much. The volume on the most recent rally has been lighter, but that could also bode well for bulls if the money on the sidelines believes that the worst is behind us. 
  • 1 Month Outlook 
    • Inflation is in control so no landing is here! This will be the bullish narrative to allow them to dismiss the hot inflation data. JPow continues to say that 2% is the mandate, and bulls still do not believe him. We are at a sweet spot where the Fed signals when it is pausing regardless of the current inflation reports, while the consumer is strong and unemployment is low. 
  • 3 Month Outlook
    • The no landing sticks, then we know that only a natural recession will bring the markets down. The Fed will not manufacture the recession and it will be up to whether inflation can stay back long enough for the consumer to stay strong. The theory here is that inflation is and was ultimately a supply side issue and those issues would be resolved by then. If this is the case, and inflation starts to slightly tick down while the Fed has paused, the market will explode higher as they will anticipate that a major recession will not happen. It will only crash or come down once the consumer has slowed down by the sticky inflation, thus causing an economic recession. 

Bearish Thesis - 

  • 2 Week outlook 
    • The market has ran way too hard way too fast on some sketchy macro data. This is due for a pullback to retest some key levels (405, 400, 398). Now dip buyers may show up, but we are technically due for a cool off period. OPEC+ latest news on cutting output could push energy prices higher again, which puts cold water on the deflationary argument. 
  • 1 month outlook 
    • Going to be honest here. Bears needs something to break again and/or some bearish data to show up (high CPI) for the dip buyers to back off. Earnings are around the corner so that could usher in the recession fears again.
  • 3 months+ outlook 
    • Regardless of the Fed's decision in May, the data is showing that inflation is sticking. So inflation is showing that it is control, so no matter how the market wants to spin the narrative, if inflation is not dealt with, it will crush the consumer. There is no magic bullet that will get it under control outside of a recession. So bears are playing for the inevitable recession. 

I do not agree with one side of this narrative, but it is important to present all sides of the argument. Over the next few weeks, I will keep building and updating these narratives. 

My Prediction - 

We have a holiday week ahead of us with major data releasing on Friday when the market is closed. I do think we see a drastic pullback very soon in the form of a gap down. With oil rising on the OPEC news, the play to the downside will be in QQQ as participants look to book profits and rotate back into energy. I have quite a bit of puts that took a hit on Thursday and Friday, so I will be looking at trimming some of the shorter time frame ones on any solid pullback. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


Current Positions and Plays -

  • I closed out a few positions last week for some gains but still have a large chunk of puts in QQQ. My current positions are QQQ, MU, AMD, NEM, FEZ, BX puts. I am also holding CAG calls as a recession play. Most of the smaller positions are for 4 to 6 weeks out. The larger positions are for June.  

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour are overbought. 4 hour is just about there and Daily is above neutral.
  • SPY closed above the bear market trendline and the 200MA on the Daily chart.
  • SPY Fibs for Dec 2022 low to 2023 high (current rally) -  Purple fibs on the chart. 
    • 407 is the .236
    • 401 is the .382
    • 391 is the .618 
    • 396 is the .500
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 389 is the .236 line. 407 is the .382 line. Light green fibs on the chart. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 line. 416 is the .236 line. Gold fibs on the chart. 
Screen Shot 2023-04-02 at 9.54.35 PM.png 634.39 KB

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY  - levels 398 (major), 401, 407, 410
  • $QQQ  - levels 313 (major), 316, 320, 323
  • This is not financial advice

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 8 months ago
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - March 27th, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

SPY had a range of 389 to 402 with a close at 395. We had FOMC and Papa Powell gave us the expected 25 BPS hike and released the Economic Projections. This is where the juicy data was and it showed some interesting data.
Screen Shot 2023-03-26 at 9.27.57 PM.png 200.12 KB

Here are the key things I see:
  • GDP has been lowered in 2023 and 2024
  • Unemployment is expected to go up this year and next from current levels. 
  • PCE Inflation ticked slightly up for 2023 
  • Fed Funds Rate was unchanged at 5.1 for 2023, and that is the first time we have not had a revision upwards in a year. This signals that a pause is coming very very soon. 
  • No Rate cuts for 2023 have been signaled in the projections. 

So the market continues to price in rate cuts in 2023 even after JPow said that is not going to happen. I am honestly sticking with JPow and not trying to side with the market estimates. The market does keep blasting higher in tech so it is clear that this narrative is working.

One thing is for sure, we are in the middle of a transition between inflation to recession theme. The volatility will be wild so keep it light on any trades. Don't pick a side just yet imo. 

My Prediction - 
Play light and fast on any trades. I am building some small positions in longer term put positions in various names including QQQ, AMD, BX and some others.  

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


Current Positions and Plays -

  • I am holding some QQQ, AMD, CAT, FEZ, and BX puts for 30+ days out and are close to ITM. I have 2 sets of puts for QQQ, one is in April that is pretty OTM, and June that is not too far out of the money. I am looking at holding these positions this week. If we get a major move down, I will look to book some profits on them. If we continue upward, I will need to move on from the QQQ April puts and roll that money into the June ones. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily are neutral.
  • SPY closed above the bear market trendline and the 200MA on the Daily chart.
  • SPY Fibs for Dec 2022 low to 2023 high (current rally) -  Purple fibs on the chart. 
    • 401 is the .382
    • 391 is the .618 
    • 396 is the .500
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 389 is the .236 line. 407 is the .382 line. Light green fibs on the chart. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 line. 416 is the .236 line. Gold fibs on the chart. 
Screen Shot 2023-03-26 at 10.09.47 PM.png 631.02 KB

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY  - levels 390 (major), 393, 396, 398, 401
  • $QQQ  - levels 306, 308, 311, 313 (major), 318
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 8 months ago
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - March 20th, 2023

FOMC Preview - 

SPY had a range of 396 to 380 with a close at 390. It was another wild week with major divergence happening from the SPY and QQQ. There are so many mixed signals right now in the market that a major in depth preview is not needed. So I am going to keep this pretty simple and give you 4 scenarios to look out for from FOMC. We all need to wait for JPow on Wednesday and see what he says at FOMC. If you must play before then, keep the plays light and fast. Scalp like your account is on the brink of death and you will be ok. We got banks blowing up and then getting rescued, tech catching a bid like its unlimited QE again, crypto ripping up like it is a legit safehaven, Gold moving like the world is about to end, and Europe looks like the most sensible central bank. It is chaos. 

Here are the 4 FOMC Scenarios I am looking for on FOMC. Shout-out to @homelessdaytrader on the Discord I am in for providing 3 of these. 

  • Option 1 Rate cut - JPow is very scared. Bullish results in stocks. QQQ up 10% in 1 day.
  • Option 2 Rate pause - JPow is scared. Bullish. QQQ up 5%.
  • Option 3 25bps hike = JPow is probably scared, but doesn't want others to know. Bearish. QQQ up 1% then reverses to go down 5%.
  • Option 4 JPow raises rates by 50 and walks up to the mic and says "LaGarde won't outdue me. We won the revolutionary war and carried Europe's ass in the World Wars. No further questions." And walks off. QQQ goes down 15% 

I would love nothing more than Option 4 to play out. 

My Prediction - 

I called out NEM as a solid play and it exploded up. I took profit on this way too early, but a nice win regardless. This week I am going to be looking at some consumer staples, possibly Pepsi, Conagra, McDonalds, or Wal-Mart. These names are slightly down but should fair well in the recession theme. I am not in a hurry to enter any of them, but I will keep an eye on them. 

I will keep my scalps small and. my stops tight heading into Wednesday's big FOMC meeting. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


Current Positions and Plays -

  • I am holding some QQQ and AMD puts for mid April.  

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily are neutral.
  • SPY broke below the bear market trendline and the 200MA on the Daily chart.
  • SPY Fibs for Dec 2022 low to 2023 high (current rally) -  Purple fibs on the chart. 
    • 401 is the .382
    • 391 is the .618 
    • 396 is the .500
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 389 is the .236 line. 407 is the .382 line. Light green fibs on the chart. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 line. 416 is the .236 line. Gold fibs on the chart. 

Screen Shot 2023-03-19 at 9.52.27 PM.png 702.37 KB

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY  - levels 383, 385, 390 (major), 393, 396
  • $QQQ  - levels 300, 303, 306, 308, 311
  • NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES and NQ futures. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 8 months ago
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - March 13th, 2023

UPDATE - Fed Has Released the Following Statements on the SIVB Situation

These came out after my preview was done.
federalreserve.gov/newsevents/...
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20230312b.htm

TLDR - If you are a bank and are doing poor risk management, we will shut you down and make sure the depositers are made whole. Historical...


Last Week Recap - 

What a week... SPY went to a high of 407 to 384. That is a massive range and SPY was actually trading at 401 on Thursday morning. So effectively, we saw a 17 point drop in 2 days as we closed near the lows of the week on Friday. So what happened?

Jerome Powell testified in front of Congress and we saw the hawk come back out. 50 BPS is now back on the table and the Fedswaps actually have it favored above 25 BPS. We also had nonfarm payroll data releasing on Friday, and it came in pretty bullish for the inflation trade. Lower wage rate, and higher unemployment gives a tip to the Fed that their actions may start to be working and thus they can back off some. So with that data, why didn't we blast higher? We had a black swan event. 

Silicon Valley Bank had a bank run. They announced they were looking at raising $2billion and that spooked customers and immediately triggered a bank run. The stock plummeted and the bank is now under FDIC control. This has caused actual fear in the markets that is this a systemic issue or a one off problem. I am no banking expert, nor do I invest in the financial sector so I am going to let the chips fall as they may. There are a lot of theories floating around, and I think 99% of them get debunked by midweek. But... the fear is real and that fear can stick around in the back of people's minds for awhile. So did we just shift into the recession theme?

Let's move on to the bullish and bearish thesis section to see what lies ahead. 

Bearish Thesis - 

  • 2 Week outlook 
    • Bears got a small "something is going to break" event last week with SIVB's bankrun. Now with those fears present, the market took a pretty emphatic move lower. We have CPI and retail sales this week, and FOMC is in two weeks. The technicals also show SPY back under the bear market trendline. With the SIVB fear present, and those major data releases upcoming, the bears look to be back in control. 
  • 1 month outlook 
    • The FOMC meeting now becomes an even more critical meeting. 50 BPS is back on the table and it appears the Fed's policies maybe starting to seeing its impact on the economy. However, it is not slowing inflation down which is the primary enemy. So JPow can get away with one more 50 BPS hike here and then resort back to the 25BPS hikes for future meetings.
      If we get an economic projection of the Fed funds rate over 550 BPS,. This should cause a move back to SPY 380 as long as JPow maintains his 2% inflation mandate stance in the presser. 
  • 3 months+ outlook 
    • Regardless of the Fed's decision in March, the data is showing that inflation is not only sticking, but is also rising again. So inflation is showing that it is control, so no matter how the market wants to spin the narrative, if inflation is not dealt with, it will crush the consumer. There is no magic bullet that will get it under control outside of a recession. So bears are playing for the inevitable recession. (Same as last week)

Bullish Thesis - 

  • 2 Week Outlook
    • Something broke in the economy and that something was SIVB. But... is this a systemic issue or a one off? If the SIVB issues get worked out via a govt. bailout or a private acquisition, the market will look to regain the 390 support and retest the bear market trendline. CPI is on Tuesday, so if that data comes in cooler, we are squeezing all the way until FOMC. What a shift a few days can make where the bulls are now relying on data to save them. Now if SIVB, does not get a timely resolution, the market may react negatively to this. However, SVIB failing could signal the Fed to only do 25 BPS hike in the next FOMC meeting and start the discussion of pausing in the economic projections.  
  • 1 Month Outlook 
    • SIVB be damned, the jobs data gave the Fed a possible soft landing scenario. Low wage rate increase (no wage spiral) and higher unemployment (softening of labor conditions). Inflation is in control so no landing is here! This will be the bullish narrative to allow them to dismiss the hot inflation data. Even if JPow says that 2% is the mandate in the March FOMC meeting, bulls will not believe him due to SIVB breaking. He is closer to pausing rates and then he will just live with the results for a year with the rates at 5 to 5.25%. This will create a sweet spot where the Fed signals when it is pausing regardless of the current inflation reports, while the consumer is strong and unemployment is low.
  • 3 Month Outlook
    • The no landing sticks, then we know that only a natural recession will bring the markets down. The Fed will not manufacture the recession and it will be up to whether inflation can stay back long enough for the consumer to stay strong. The theory here is that inflation is and was ultimately a supply side issue and those issues would be resolved by then. If this is the case, and inflation starts to slightly tick down while the Fed has paused, the market will explode higher as they will anticipate that a major recession will not happen. It will only crash or come down once the consumer has slowed down by the sticky inflation, thus causing an economic recession. (same as last week)

I do not agree with one side of this narrative, but it is important to present all sides of the argument. Over the next few weeks, I will keep building and updating these narratives. 

My Prediction - 

I was wrong last week as we did not see a sustainable pop after the pullback. I got caught holding longs, but my stops kicked in and allowed me to save a green week. 

We have an eventful week ahead. CPI is Tuesday, Retail sales is Wednesday, ECB Rate hike decision is Thursday and the sneaky UoM Sentiment report is Friday. All while, everyone is awaiting the fallout from the SIVB crisis. 

If the CPI data comes in hot, does that put 50 BPS hike back on the table? Does the Fed even consider 50 BPS again since the banking sector is a bit shaky right now. 

I am looking for a rebound on the SIVB situation getting resolved. CPI being Tuesday, so I anticipate some de-risking on Monday. There is no real point to playing any bigger trades until that data is presented. Retail sales on Wednesday will be critical for us to determine how far off is the recession, and if the consumer is still as strong as it has shown in previous months. 

So the play I am looking at getting into is a gold miner, NEM. With risk off getting more attention, Gold looks to be catching a bid. So I will grab some calls for June sometime this week. 
I will continue to scalp the indicies for small plays this week. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here. No Fed Speakers this week. They are in a blackout period:  stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Monday - Nothing major
  • Tuesday -CPI at 8:30am
  • Wednesday - Retail Sales at 8:30am
  • Wednesday - PPI Data at 8:30am
  • Wednesday - Business Inventories at 10:00am
  • Thursday - Building Permits at 8:30am
  • Thursday - Import/Export Data at 8:30am
  • Thursday - EU Interest Rate Decision at 9:15am (DXY implications) 
  • Friday - UoM Sentiment at 10am (sneaky report)

Current Positions and Plays -

  • I am all cash and looking at scalping and entering some longer dated calls for Gold miners. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, and 4 hour are oversold. Daily is close to oversold.
  • SPY broke below the bear market trendline and the 200MA on the Daily chart.
  • SPY Fibs for Dec 2022 low to 2023 high (current rally) -  Purple fibs on the chart. 
    • 401 is the .382
    • 391 is the .618 
    • 396 is the .500
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 389 is the .236 line. 407 is the .382 line. Light green fibs on the chart. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 line. 416 is the .236 line. Gold fibs on the chart. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY  - levels 383, 385, 390 (major), 393, 396
  • $QQQ  - levels 285, 288, 290 (major), 293, 296
  • NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES and NQ futures. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 9 months ago
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - March 6th, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

SPY had a weekly range of 392 to 404, closing just above 404. It was a wild week with the market starting off with a bounce, and then by Thursday in premarket, SPY was testing the 200 Daily Moving Average near 393. Once it tested it, the buyers stepped and blasted us higher to 404. 

I predicted a bounce last week, but unfortunately I got caught being married to the bearish side midweek. Once we got a revision in the wage data on Thursday morning, I went overly bearish and it cost me. The power of the 200 Moving Day Average was way stronger than that data. Lesson learned, and we move forward. 

I believe I have spotted the missing link in my previews and I will talk more about that in my prediction section. 

Let's move on to the bullish and bearish thesis section to see what lies ahead. 

Bearish Thesis - 

  • 2 Week outlook 
    • We blasted higher last week, but we had more bearish data come out with a massive revision up on the wage rate data. However, that data was not enough to hold back the buyers from the 200 MA bounce. Technicals support a small pullback here back to 400 or even 398, but it appears that will be the extent of it barring a major economic data update. Maybe from the jobs data on Friday? 
  • 1 month outlook 
    • This is all about the FOMC meeting in March. If we get an economic projection of the Fed funds rate over 550 BPS, then that will signal to the market that they were again way too premature on predicting a rate pause or cut to be within the next 2 meetings. This should cause a move back to SPY 380 as long as JPow maintains his 2% inflation mandate stance in the presser. (Same as last week)
  • 3 months+ outlook 
    • Regardless of the Fed's decision in March, the data is showing that inflation is not only sticking, but is also rising again. So inflation is showing that it is control, so no matter how the market wants to spin the narrative, if inflation is not dealt with, it will crush the consumer. There is no magic bullet that will get it under control outside of a recession. So bears are playing for the inevitable recession. (Same as last week)

Bullish Thesis - 

  • 2 Week Outlook
    • Yes, the fundamental data is bearish, but the market is holding up strongly. We are due for a small pullback from the technical standpoint, but that dip should be bought up pretty fast with the 200MA provided firm support. There is a landmine on Friday with the jobs data, but again the fundamental data has not seemed to be slowing the market down this year. The Fed is losing credibility by the day and that is short term bullish. 
  • 1 Month Outlook 
    • Inflation is in control so no landing is here! This will be the bullish narrative to allow them to dismiss the hot inflation data. Even if JPow says that 2% is the mandate in the March FOMC meeting, bulls will not believe him. He is closer to pausing rates and then he will just live with the results for a year with the rates at 5 to 5.25%. This will create a sweet spot where the Fed signals when it is pausing regardless of the current inflation reports, while the consumer is strong and unemployment is low. (same as last week)
  • 3 Month Outlook
    • The no landing sticks, then we know that only a natural recession will bring the markets down. The Fed will not manufacture the recession and it will be up to whether inflation can stay back long enough for the consumer to stay strong. The theory here is that inflation is and was ultimately a supply side issue and those issues would be resolved by then. If this is the case, and inflation starts to slightly tick down while the Fed has paused, the market will explode higher as they will anticipate that a major recession will not happen. It will only crash or come down once the consumer has slowed down by the sticky inflation, thus causing an economic recession. (same as last week)

I do not agree with one side of this narrative, but it is important to present all sides of the argument. Over the next few weeks, I will keep building and updating these narratives. 

My Prediction - 

So let me first present my theory of what is currently happening with why the market is not reacting to fundamental data like last year. 

Volume is now hiding in the option chains. So there are now 3 phases to the market currently. Technicals, fundamentals and now mechanics. They are using the mechanics to counter the fundamental data.

I believe TSLA cracked the mechanics code 4 years ago.

TSLA has always trumped the fundamental case against it. But there was always these crazy call options weekly that tended to push the stock up. The buyer was labeled the Tesla whale.
It was clearly successful and as Tesla continued to workout their issues and continue the hype train, the stock just went crazy. I think this strategy is now being implored in a more broader scope to hold up stocks until fundamental data improves.
Mechanics are working in overdrive to achieve this. Which is why bad news is not creating the moves like last year. The 0DTE changes helped fuel this.

So with that out of the way, I am looking for a pullback before the JPow testimony on Tuesday, and then buyers should step in very fast as the event is a nothing burger. These hearings will make you hate the government officials even more. They all tend to use their time to say how the other party is causing the current issues in the economy and then ask JPow if he agrees. He then simply responds with a "I cannot comment on those matters." The main fear here will be his opening remarks, once those are done, the market should rebound from any dip that may have occurred. 

I will be scalping small wins or losses all week. We have major data on Friday with the nonfarm payrolls, so I will be playing it light this week. So to recap, looking for a pullback, and then a buy the dip moment to push us higher heading into Friday's report. 


Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here. We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week:  stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Monday - Factory Orders at 10:00am
  • Tuesday - JPow Hearing at 10:00am
  • Tuesday - TIPP Economic Optimism at 10:00am
  • Wednesday - EU LaGarde Speech at 5:00am (DXY Implications)
  • Wednesday - EU GDP and Employment Change at 5:00am
  • Wednesday - ADP Employment Change at 8:15am
  • Wednesday - Import and Export Data at 8:30am
  • Wednesday - JOLTS Report at 10:00am
  • Wednesday - JPow Hearing at 10:00am
  • Wednesday - ISM Man PMI at 10:00am
  • Thursday - Nothing major 
  • Friday - US Nonfarm Payrolls - 8:30am (the report of the week)

Current Positions and Plays -

  • I am holding a few QQQ puts for Friday. I will hold these into JPow's hearing on Tuesday to see some de-risk. I am looking at scalping with a small amount this week.

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are overbought. 4 hour and daily are neutral.
  • SPY is still above the bear market trendline and the 200MA on the Daily chart.
  • SPY Fibs for Dec 2022 low to 2023 high (current rally) -  Purple fibs on the chart. 407 is the resistance ahead and 401 is support. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 389 is the .236 line. 407 is the .382 line. Light green fibs on the chart. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 line. 416 is the .236 line. Gold fibs on the chart. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY  - levels 390 (major), 393, 396, 400, 405, 407 (major), 410
  • $QQQ  - levels 290 (major), 293, 296, 298.50, 300, 303, 306, 310
  • NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES and NQ futures. 
  • This is not financial advice

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 9 months ago
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - February 27th, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

SPY had a weekly range of 404 to 393, closing just above 396. This was a week where the bears finally flexed some muscle and pushed the SPY under some key levels. The macro data came in hotter than expected on the inflation front with the PCE release on Friday. Also GDP came in under expectations on the Q4 revision. So that puts CPI, PPI, PCE all coming in hotter in January while GDP got revised lower. That was clean sweep for macro data for the bears in February.

So does the recent macro data open the door for the next leg lower in this bear market? Let's breakdown that question below by visiting the bullish and bearish arguments in a 2 week, 1 month and 3 month outlook. 

Bearish Thesis - 

  • 2 Week outlook 
    • The inflation data we got the past few weeks tells the market that the current rally was completely off base. So there should be a correction back to at least SPY 390 in the near term. This would put us right back in the chop zone that we were in prior to the FOMC February meeting. 
  • 1 month outlook 
    • This is all about the FOMC meeting in March. If we get a economic projection of the Fed funds rate over 550 BPS, then that will signal to the market that they were again way too premature on predicting a rate pause or cut to be within the next 2 meetings. This should cause a move back to SPY 380 as long as JPow maintains his 2% inflation mandate stance in the presser. 
  • 3 months+ outlook 
    • Regardless of the Fed's decision in March, the data is showing that inflation is not only sticking, but is also rising again. So inflation is showing that it is control, so no matter how the market wants to spin the narrative, if inflation is not dealt with, it will crush the consumer. There is no magic bullet that will get it under control outside of a recession. So bears are playing for the inevitable recession. 

Bullish Thesis - 

  • 2 Week Outlook
    • Yes, inflation data came in hotter than expected, however QQQ did not break under its 200 day SMA and the charts are looking slightly oversold on the shorter timeframes. With no major economic data this week, a bounce is likely to happen at the current support. 
  • 1 Month Outlook 
    • Inflation is in control so no landing is here! This will be the bullish narrative to allow them to dismiss the hot inflation data. Even if JPow says that 2% is the mandate in the March FOMC meeting, bulls will not believe him. He is closer to pausing rates and then he will just live with the results for a year with the rates at 5 to 5.25%. This will create a sweet spot where the Fed signals when it is pausing regardless of the current inflation reports, while the consumer is strong and unemployment is low. 
  • 3 Month Outlook
    • The no landing sticks, then we know that only a natural recession will bring the markets down. The Fed will not manufacture the recession and it will be up to whether inflation can stay back long enough for the consumer to stay strong. The theory here is that inflation is and was ultimately a supply side issue and those issues would be resolved by then. If this is the case, and inflation starts to slightly tick down while the Fed has paused, the market will explode higher as they will anticipate that a major recession will not happen. It will only crash or come down once the consumer has slowed down by the sticky inflation, thus causing an economic recession. 

I do not agree with one side of this narrative, but it is important to present all sides of the argument. Over the next few weeks, I will keep building and updating these narratives. 

My Prediction - 

We do see a bounce at support for SPY to ultimately get us back over 400. I am looking for that bounce this week. The bulls have the stronger 2 week outlook imo, while the bears have the stronger 1 month outlook. So I am playing the potential bounce for the next 2 weeks and looking at playing it very cautious with tight stops. 


Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here. We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week:  stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Monday - EU Economic Statement at 5am (DXY implications)
  • Monday - Durable Goods Orders at 8:30am
  • Monday - Dallas Fed Man Index at 10:30a
  • Tuesday - Retail and Wholesale Inventories at 8:30am
  • Tuesday - Chicago PMI at 9:45am
  • Tuesday - Consumer Confidence at 10am
  • Wednesday - SP PMI at 9:45am
  • Wednesday - ISM Man PMI at 10:00am
  • Thursday - EU's Inflation Report at 5:00am (DXY implications)
  • Friday - SP and Non-Man PMI at 9:45 and 10am

Current Positions and Plays -

  • I am holding 1 NQ long. Looking at scalping this all the way up if we start to rally. I will close it out ahead of the data releases each day. I am much better at reacting to data, then predicting data. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are neutral. 4 hour is close to oversold on RSI but the MACD is curling down. Daily chart is at neutral on the RSI but MACD is curling down.  
  • SPY has closed under its 50 MA average but is still above the bear market trendline and the 200MA on the Daily chart.
  • SPY Fibs for Dec 2022 low to 2023 high (current rally) - We are right in the golden zone for a bounce at the 50 line and 61.8 line. Purple fibs on the chart. Those levels are highlighted in gold. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 389 is the .236 line. 407 is the .382 line. Light green fibs on the chart. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 line. 416 is the .236 line. Gold fibs on the chart. 

Screen Shot 2023-02-26 at 9.30.17 PM.png 722.8 KB

Percentages from the Highs

  • SPY is approximately -18% (479 HIGH)
  • QQQ is approximately -28% (408 HIGH)
  • DJX is approximately -11% (369 HIGH)
  • IWM is approximately -24% (244 HIGH)

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY  - levels 390 (major), 393, 396, 400, 405, 407 (major)
  • $QQQ  - levels 290 (major), 293, 296, 298.50, 300
  • NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES and NQ futures. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 9 months ago
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - February 13th, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

SPY had a weekly range of 405 to 416, closing near 408. Another wild week that saw both bulls and bears eat pies in the face. JPow's speech on Tuesday sparked a nice pop and then it immediately got faded back down. Only to then recover again at the close on Tuesday. But from Wednesday until the close of the week, we saw continued selling. I got caught in holding longs thinking we would see some CPI optimism going into next week. That proved to be a big mistake as I completely missed two things, the bond market believing more rate hikes were coming, and the projections for the upcoming CPI came in much hotter than last months. 

We have a lot of important data releasing this week. CPI will get the most attention, but I am more focused on the retail sales data on Wednesday. The CPI reading is expected to be a little hotter than last months, and plays into the sticky inflation narrative. Retail sales, however could hurt the soft landing narrative if they come in cool. This could be the shift of the narrative to recession fears. 

My Prediction - 

All eyes will be on the CPI report early in the week, but I do believe that could be a minor impact on the next trend. I am more interested in the retail sales data on Wednesday to show if the consumer is still showing signs of weakness. I will be squarely focused on the TNX and DXY this week. If those two can maintain their recent strength, there should be a sell off in tech. The 200 Daily SMA for QQQ is 291 and I expect us to test that before a possible bounce. 


Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


Current Positions and Plays -

  • I am holding 2 NQ shorts. Looking at exiting these on Monday or Tuesday before CPI. I will then start scalping until the retail data comes out on Wednesday. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily charts are near or at neutral. 
  • SPY has broken above its 200 MA average and the bear market trendline on the Daily chart.
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 407 is the .382 line. Next line higher is 421 which is the .500 line.
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - We tested and rejected 418 which was the .236. Next line below is 380. 

Percentages from the Highs

  • SPY is approximately -15% (479 HIGH)
  • QQQ is approximately -25% (408 HIGH)
  • DJX is approximately -8% (369 HIGH)
  • IWM is approximately -20% (244 HIGH)

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 396, 400, 405, 407 (major), 410, 413, 415, 418 (major)
  • NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES and NQ futures. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 10 months ago
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - February 6th, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

SPY had a weekly range of 400 to 418, closing near 412. It was a crazy week with major events happening all over the place, including FOMC and AAPL earnings. Jerome Powell came in very tame in his demeanor and the bulls took that as an indicator that the Fed pain is starting to subside. During his speech on Wednesday, the market blasted higher and set the stage for the soft landing to carry the momentum upward for a few more weeks. 

AAPL, AMZN, and GOOG all released earnings on Thursday in afterhours. The earnings were not great, and the market seemed to handle the reports pretty well in afterhours. Friday in premarket brought a very hot jobs report that sent the market down to test under 411, but the dip was quickly bought up on Friday. 

The internet is filled with reviews of earnings and FOMC from last week, but I want to concentrate on the jobs report for a moment. One bullish note for the jobs data was that wage rates stayed the same and unemployment ticked lower. The wage data  being flat helps ease the inflation fears for the upcoming CPI report on 02/14. However, the jobs number came in scorching hot (comically hot honestly) at +500k. That helps the DXY gain some momentum which is a bearish sign for tech and commodities. So the jobs report may fuel the next pullback if the DXY can keep the upward momentum it grabbed on Friday. 

My Prediction - 

The market is pretty frothy up here and is ripe for a technical pullback. I am going to be looking at the DXY and seeing if it can hold 103 on Monday. I think there is a chance that we get a vey quick pullback on Monday and part of Tuesday where SPY retests 407. That would clear up some of the technicals and allow for any dip buyers to feel more comfortable to enter. 

I believe the catalyst for the dip buying will be the JPow event on Tuesday turning into a nonevent and the dip buyers show up in full force again. This time they will run the market up to 420 before the CPI report. If we get there before next week, then we will consolidate and slowly grind up. 

As a bear, I hate typing this, but it is what it is. There is no major economic events this week that can cause much fear outside of JPow completely flipping his dovish stance on Tuesday.  He is not going to do that in my opinion with FOMC only being 6 days ago. That would kill all credibility he has left. 


Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here. We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week:  stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Monday - Nothing major
  • Tuesday - US Balance of Trade at 8:30am
  • Tuesday - JPow speech at 12:40pm
  • Tuesday - CMG earnings in afterhours
  • Wednesday - A lot of Fed Speakers throughout the day
  • Wednesday - UBER earnings in premarket and DIS Earnings in Afterhours
  • Thursday - No major economic data (weekly jobless claims but not major)
  • Friday - UK GDP at 2:00am (DXY implications/ global recession fears)
  • Friday - UoM Consumer at 10am

Current Positions and Plays -

  • All cash for now. 
  • I am sticking with daily scalps for the time being. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are neutral. 4 hour and Daily charts are close to overbought. 
  • SPY has broken above its 200 MA average and the bear market trendline on the Daily chart.
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 407 is the .382 line. Next line higher is 421 which is the .500 line.
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - We tested and rejected 418 which was the .236. Next line below is 380. 

Percentages from the Highs

  • SPY is approximately -15% (479 HIGH)
  • QQQ is approximately -25% (408 HIGH)
  • DJX is approximately -8% (369 HIGH)
  • IWM is approximately -20% (244 HIGH)

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 407 (major), 410, 413, 415, 418 (major)
  • NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES futures. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 10 months ago
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - January 23rd, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

SPY had a weekly range of 387 to 400, closing near 396. The market absorbed the poor retail numbers and had a nice pullback from 400 to 388 on Wednesday to Thursday. It then had a monster rally on Friday to close near 396 on Monthly options expiration. Netflix had ok earnings and pretty good subscriber growth numbers. So how much of the rally was options magic or how much of the rally was actually merited? Time will tell this week. 

The bulls still have a nice narrative building here with inflation coming down, unemployment staying low, and Fed slowing rate hikes. But the retail data from last week did show that the consumer is slowing their spending. That is a key element to the soft landing narrative. There is a lot of front loading happening here by the bulls, but it may spark a continued move for weeks to come. 

The bears recession argument got some more support with the poor December retail sales as well as all the Fed Speakers still signaling that no rate hike cut was imminent. 
I will keep adding this point in all my previews: 
If the market is strong, unemployment is low, inflation is falling, then why would the Fed pause here? IF anything they can keep pounding QT and lower the balance sheet without much fear of the market stumbling. 

So, here we sit again for the second week in a row near the bear market line of rejection and the 200 Daily moving Average. Do we reject here, or breakthrough?

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here:  stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Blackout Period for the Fed until FOMC on Feb 1st. 
  • Monday - EU LaGarde Speech at 12:45PM (DXY implications)
  • Tuesday - US PMI at 9:45am
  • Tuesday - MSFT Earnings in Afterhours
  • Wednesday - No Major Economic Data
  • Wednesday - BA and T Earnings in Premarket
  • Wednesday - TSLA Earnings in Afterhours
  • Thursday - AAL, LUV, and MC in premarket
  • Thursday - INTC and V earnings in after-hours
  • Thursday - US GDP at 8:30am
  • Friday - PCE Data at 8:30am
  • Friday - UoM Consumer at 10am

My Prediction - 

This is going to sound like a repeat from last week, but I honestly think we have the same setup. Wait for a pullback and then enter long for a rally. Microsoft earnings are the main event this week, so that can be the cause of the pullback, or the resumption of the uptrend based on the results. I do not think there is much of a market wide bearish case for TSLA’s earnings. The name has been beaten up so badly already, that there is not much more for bears to take from the earnings imo. 

The GDP and PCE data at the end of the week are minor and should not cause much of a market reaction. I am a bear at heart, but this is looking like more bullish momentum heading into FOMC next week as long as MSFT’s earnings are not abysmal. I still have a rally target for 430 for this run. It may take a few weeks/months. 

Though I am long term bearish, short term bullish, I will not be swinging any core positions. I am having a lot of success scalping the directions each day, so I am going to stick with that. 

Current Positions and Plays -

  • I scalped all week long and played the pullback nicely. My goal is to net 20 ES points a day in scalps, and I was able to do that for the week. 
  • I am sticking with daily scalps for the time being. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min is close to overbought.  1 hour, 4 hour, and Daily charts are a little higher than neutral. 
  • SPY is right at its 200 MA average and near the bear market trendline on the Daily chart.
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. We tested this line and it ultimately held as support. I do not see us testing 390 again until the conclusion of this bear market rally. 407 is the next Fib line higher. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. The next level is 418.

Percentages from the Highs

  • SPY is approximately -20% (479 HIGH)
  • QQQ is approximately -35% (408 HIGH)
  • DJX is approximately -10% (369 HIGH)
  • IWM is approximately -30% (244 HIGH)

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 390 (major) > 393 > 396 >  398 > 400 > 403 > 410 (major)
  • NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES futures. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 10 months ago
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - January 16th, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

SPY had a weekly range of 386 to 399, closing near the highs of the week. The CPI report came in at expectations and the market held all of its gains that it frontloaded heading into the report. 

The bulls have a nice narrative building here with inflation coming down, unemployment staying low, Fed slowing rate hikes, and consumer still somewhat strong. This is creating the goldilocks or soft landing narrative that is not too far fetch. The bulls of course take this theory one step further by saying all this means the Fed will pause or cut rates in a few months. 

The bears argument is centered around a possible recession and notion that the Fed is not looking at cutting rate hikes anytime soon. If the market is strong, unemployment is low, inflation is falling, then why would the Fed pause here? IF anything they can keep pounding QT and lower the balance sheet without much fear of the market stumbling. 

So, here we sit near the bear market line of rejection and the 200 Daily moving Average. Do we reject here, or breakthrough? There is an interesting battle happening here.

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • A lot of Fed Speakers this week. Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Monday - Holiday
  • Tuesday - GS and MS earnings in premarket
  • Tuesday -NY Manufacturing Index at 8:30
  • Tuesday - Williams Speech at 3pm
  • Wednesday - UK/EU Inflation Reports at 2am
  • Wednesday - US PPI at 8:30am
  • Wednesday - Retail Sales at 8:30am
  • Thursday - LaGarde Speech at 5:30am
  • Thursday - Housing Data at 8:30am
  • Thursday - NFLX earnings afterhours
  • Friday - Nothing major

My Prediction - 

I am going to keep this short and simple. I believe we see a pullback to 393 at some point early this week, possibly 390. Bears will feel emboldened as that would be a rejection at the bear market trendline, and then we start to reverse course heading into the major tech earnings next week. I imagine a lot of Fed officials will maintain the hawkish rhetoric, but it will have little impact as the bulls know that 25 BPS hike for February is heavily favored to happen. 

Ultimately, I think the rally after the pullback could get as high as 430. There is a lot of bullish sentiment out there, and I don't see anything slowing that down.

Yet another week to keep it light and let the major reports dictate the trend.

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I closed out my core puts early in the week for a nice gain. I did do a strangle on CPI and got walloped on it. I ended up scalping my way back green for the week. 
  • I am sticking with daily scalps for the time being. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour and 4 hour are close to overbought.  Daily chart is neutral. 
  • SPY is under its 50 MA but it is over the 200 MA averages on the Daily chart. It just went above the 100MA.  
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. There is a possibility for us to retest this line soon and it turns into support. 407 is the next Fib line higher. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. If this level falls on the weekly close, it could lead to a major push downward. This seems to be the level that the market is comfortable buying at. 

Percentages from the Highs

  • SPY is approximately -20% (479 HIGH)
  • QQQ is approximately -35% (408 HIGH)
  • DJX is approximately -10% (369 HIGH)
  • IWM is approximately -30% (244 HIGH)

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 380 (major) > 383 > 386 > 390 (major) > 393 > 395 > 400
  • NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES futures. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 10 months ago
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - January 9th, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

SPY had a weekly range of 377 to 388. Friday alone moved from 379 to 388 on the back of the Jobs data and Services PMI data. It was a very intriguing week and it appears the bulls are starting to find a narrative that is sticking. We are back on the bandwagon that the Fed will pause on rates soon. The jobs data came in hotter than expected, and unemployment went down. However, the wage rate went down so that helps avoid a wage price spiral. 

The services PMI came in weak and the market took that as a signal that the Fed is doing its job in slowing the economy. It really seemed that the market was ready to go up and was just spinning any narrative they could to make it happen. The weakened economic numbers signals a possible soft landing if jobs stay strong, but it also gets us closer to a recession. Should be an interesting week ahead.  

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


So this week has a few major landmines with JPow talking in premarket on Tuesday and CPI data coming in on Thursday. 

My Prediction - 

I do think we see some de-risking on Monday heading into that JPow speech on Tuesday. I am not sure what to expect with it, since this is a speech in Europe. He normally is not as hawkish in these speeches, so the market may not really have a negative reaction to it. 

The CPI data on Thursday is expected to show a cool report and that would give us three consecutive months of cooler inflation reports. The rate is still way above the 2% target the Fed wants, but the bulls will spin this as a downward trend that is showing that the Fed has done enough. 

I expect the market to pullback to 383-386 at some point and then move higher on that CPI report. A 400 test is possible with the right data. However, if that CPI report comes in hotter than expected, the market will head back below 380 in a hurry. 

Yet another week to keep it light and let the major reports dictate the trend.

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I closed out my core puts for Feb 28 for a nice profit and grabbed some Mar 30th puts on Friday. I am slightly down on them due to Friday's continued move up after I grabbed them. 
  • I am looking at scalping most of the week. If an opportunity presents itself to close out the core puts for a gain, I will lock that in. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are overbought. 4 hour and Daily charts are all neutral. 
  • SPY is under its 50 and 200 MA averages on the Daily chart. It just went above the 100MA.  
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. There is a possibility for us to retest this line soon and rejects. Then I am looking for a possible break to show support if the CPI data allows it. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. If this level falls on the weekly close, it could lead to a major push downward. This seems to be the level that the market is hanging around. 

Percentages from the Highs

  • SPY is approximately -20% (479 HIGH)
  • QQQ is approximately -35% (408 HIGH)
  • DJX is approximately -10% (369 HIGH)
  • IWM is approximately -30% (244 HIGH)

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 380 (major) > 383 > 386 > 390 (major) > 393 > 395 > 400
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 11 months ago
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - January 3rd, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

It was a very entertaining week with the market testing under 380 a few times. Ultimately, we closed the year above 380 and that level has held up as support. It was a low volume holiday week so I am not sure we can put too much weight in any of the price action. There was not any additional economic data to change any of the bearish macro outlooks. 

The first week of the year brings back the data, fed speakers and the volume. The economic calendar is jammed packed this week with important data so lets take a deep dive into it. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Monday - Markets Closed
  • Tuesday - US PMI data at 9:45am
  • Wednesday - JOLTS data at 10am
  • Wednesday - FOMC Minutes at 2pm
  • Thursday - ADP Employment Report at 8:15am
  • Thursday - Services PMI at 9:45am
  • Friday - EU Inflation report at 5am
  • Friday - US Nonfarm Payroll data at 8:30am ⚠️ (main data for the week)

So this week is all about jobs jobs jobs. There are a few scenarios we need to keep an eye out for on how the market reacts to each of the jobs reports. Here are the scenarios I am looking out for on the big Friday's report:
  • Nonfarm Payrolls (Prev Month 263k) & Unemployment is 3.7%
    • If payrolls, employment number, or hourly wages comes in higher/hot vs the expectations, that would continue to show a tight labor market. The bearish argument here is that the Fed will want to keep this number down and thus will stay aggressive for longer.  The bullish argument here is that the labor market is still strong and could be due to a strong consumer, thus limits the recession argument and adds credence to the soft landing argument. 
    • If all the data comes in under expectations, that will bring the soft landing argument a lot of weight in the short term and it could spark a bear market rally. 

My Prediction - 

We won't have the full picture on the jobs data until that Friday report, so until then I am not putting much weight in the price action. Friday's premarket data does setup a great straddle opportunity and I will prepare to make that play. My gut says we are heading lower regardless of the data due to the inability of one set of reports to fully change the Fed's aggressive approach. Can we test 390 again? Sure, but I am not sure what allows that to stick without any sort of momentum in a believable bullish narrative. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I am holding core ES puts for Feb 28. I have about 80% of my position and will probably sit back on adding anymore unless we test 390 again. 
  • I will be looking at entering a strangle on Friday in premarket for the Nonfarm Payrolls Jobs Data. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour, and Daily charts are all neutral. 
  • SPY is now under its 50, 100 and 200 MA averages on the Daily chart. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. There is a possibility for us to retest this line soon and most likely it turns into resistance. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. If this level falls on the weekly close, it could lead to a major push downward. This seems to be the level that the market is hanging around. 

Percentages from the Highs

  • SPY is approximately -20%
  • QQQ is approximately -35%
  • DJI is approximately -10%
  • IWM is approximately -30%

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 373 > 376 > 380 (major) > 383 > 386 > 390 (major) > 393
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 11 months ago
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - December 27th, 2022

Last Week Recap - 

We had quite a bit of fireworks last week with the market having a few breakdowns to the 376 test. The cracks in the bull thesis is starting to show and market participants are starting to lose faith. The top 3 things from last week that mattered to me were:
  • TSLA is in free fall. Margin calls starting to hit retail with nearly $5 billion in margin calls alone on Friday for Tesla. The daily chart for TSLA looks like a 5 min flush down. There is going to be a pop at some point for TSLA just based on the technicals. But until that pop happens, it is anybody's guess where the bottom is. 
  • David Tepper goes on CNBC and calls out people fighting the Fed. The billionaire hedge fund manager says he is going to take the central banks serious and is now leaning short in the market. If you have not seen this interview, please find it and watch the full version. 
  • PCE Core inflation comes in sticky. Headline goes down, but the core is showing signs of slow decline and stickying at the current levels. This is another headwind for the Fed to keep an aggressive approach. 

There will be a lot of chatter about a Santa Rally this week. Historically, the last 5 days of the trading year finish on an uptrend. Will it happen this year?

My Prediction - 

With the low volume week ahead on a shortened holiday week, it is really tough to play either side with much confidence. I have a rather large core put position for the end of February, so I am going to ignore it this week. It will be all about small scalps and not get married to any trend that shows up this week. I know a lot of folks will tout the Santa Rally, but I am not going to put much faith in that. So it is all scalps for me with an expectation of a max +/- 2% move on the week. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I am holding core ES puts for Feb 28. I will look to add to these at SPY key levels on a retests of major levels. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


THE PLAYS OF THE WEEK for SPY:

  • If you are not comfortable scalping, I would sit this week out. I am going to be in and out of plays very fast and will look to add to my core puts if we test 390 on the SPY. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour, and Daily charts are all neutral. 
  • SPY is now under its 50, 100 and 200 MA averages on the Daily chart. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. There is a possibility for us to retest this line soon and most likely it turns into resistance. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. If this level falls on the weekly close, it could lead to a major push downward. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 373 > 376 > 380 (major) > 383 > 386 > 390 (major) > 393
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 11 months ago
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - December 18th, 2022

What a week we had last week with the CPI and FOMC coming in. This week does not have anything major on the economic calendar until Friday's PCE data. 

Let's recap the events of last week real fast, as that will help us make my case for the upcoming few weeks. 

CPI and FOMC Recap - 

CPI came in cooler than expected and the market rocketed up to over 410 in premarket. It could not hold the gains and plummeted and hung around 405 until FOMC. That was a critical data point to me that the cooler CPI no longer meant that the market was going to rocket up higher.

Right before FOMC, SPY was at 405. The Economic Projections came out with the Fed Funds Rate for 2023 set to come in at 5.1%. But the major things that stuck out to me in that report was the lower GDP expectations and the higher Core Inflation expectations. Basically, the Fed is expecting a recession with those projections.

Screen Shot 2022-12-18 at 9.59.40 PM.png 209.17 KB


In the press conference, JPow came in very hawkish. He was extremely hesitant in his answers to not say anything bullish for the market to rally. He was very clear that he was not pausing, not cutting, keeping his inflation mandate at 2% and all the projections factored in the latest CPI report. It was a very bearish conference.

The market seemed to be dazed during the conference and closed near 399. But the selling intensified the next 2 days and SPY closed the week a little over 383. The weekly chart is pretty ugly for SPY.

Screen Shot 2022-12-18 at 10.14.07 PM.png 546.09 KB


My Prediction - 

We are shifting from the inflation trade to the recession trade. So what we have used as signals and macro indicators has now shifted. I find Fed Daly's comments on Friday very telling. She is one of the most dovish Fed members and came out with a hawkish statement. She stated that she is looking at holding the peak fed rate for 11 months (!) and that the peak fed rate could adjust meeting by meeting. JPow must have said we need to have a unified message to the FOMC members in the meeting last week.

Those comments to me signal the end of the Fed trade. So any upward movement we had from the June lows and the Fed pivot theory, should be lost. It won't go in a straight line, but I am fading every pop we get. We should start to see the TLT jump up as folks run to Bonds as a safehaven. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I am holding core SPX puts for Jan 20. I will look to add to these at SPY key levels on a retests of major levels. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • This week is pretty light until Thursday.
  • Thursday - US GDP data in premarket
  • Friday - PCE inflation and consumer data in premarket 
  • Friday - UoM inflation and Consumer Data at 10:00am. The sneaky big report that no one mentions. 

THE PLAYS OF THE WEEK for SPY:

  • It is pretty simple for me moving forward. Grab puts at key levels of 386, 390, 393. If we never test them, look at grabbing some calls near 373 as a hedge. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, and 4 hour charts are all almost oversold. The Daily chart is neutral. 
  • SPY is now under its 50, 100 and 200 MA averages on the Daily chart. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. There is a possibility for us to retest this line soon and most likely it turns into resistance. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. If this level falls, it could lead to a major push downward. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 373 > 376 > 380 (major) > 383 > 386 > 390 (major) > 393
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 11 months ago
by: samosa

FOMC Preview - December 14th, 2022

CPI Recap - 

What a wild day. CPI came in cooler than expected and that is saying something cause the expectations were already cool and the market ripped up on the data. We actually hit 414 in premarket and then opened near 410. That 410 level proved to be too big to handle yet again, and the market began to selloff. We actually hit sub 400 and everyone was looking around like what the hell just happened? We got a cooler CPI and the market treated it completely different than the cool reading from last month. That is a pretty clear signal that the inflation trade is coming to an end and the recession fears are starting to enter the market. Keep an eye on bad news finally turning into bad news again in the market. 

FOMC Preview - 

FOMC is where the fun really begins. JPow is the one man that can shift any trend and create major moves in the markets. One very very important note about this FOMC meeting is that we get the economic projections for the Fed Funds rate. This was not in the last meeting so this was last updated in September. The fed funds rate was projected to be 4.4 in 2022 and 4.6 for 2023. JPow let us know that the Economic Projections would be higher if they were released in the last meeting, so we can safely assume that near 5.25% is on the table for 2023.

The next section is purely my opinion and prediction for FOMC and how it will play out So please take everything I say with a grain of salt. 

I anticipate that the market will initially move down on the release of the data at 2pm. Then I think JPow will talk the markets up using bullish buzzwords, and be the same kind and gentle JPow that we last saw a few weeks ago. The market will then blast higher while he is speaking, as they believe JPow is satisfied with his efforts and the pain is over from the Fed. 
HOWEVER... the market will start to move down as it digests the data from the economic projections and realize that the Fed is actually going to keep raising rates and have no intentions to pause until more data allows them to. This will lead to a massive selloff and I believe will officially be the end of the inflation trade and the start of the recessionary trade. This will trap and hurt a lot of folks, so be nimble. 

How I am playing FOMC. I will be doing a small strangle before the 2pm release and will close out the put side at the data release. I will then hold the call side as I anticipate the kind and gentle JPow. I will then close the call side out once the market shows a reversal back down. Until then, I will ride it up and start grabbing core puts for Feb or March at key levels. But I need to see a reversal first and those economic projections must have 5.25% on them.

There is nothing JPow can say tomorrow that will give me confidence to enter any calls for the long term. There is a shift happening in the markets and I need to start adjusting my strategies from the inflation trade to the recessionary one. I think the "big drop" that everyone is waiting on, won't happen until the unemployment number starts spiking. 

This is not financial advice. 

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 11 months ago
by: samosa

Weekly Preview for Dec 11, 2022 - CPI, FOMC

What a week we have ahead of us. This is the week where accounts can blow up in either direction if you are not careful. Blind chart analysis can shift in an instant with the fundamental events we have, so make sure you are 100% confident in the trend if you are going to ride out a play for more than a few minutes. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • This week is LOADED
  • Monday - UK GDP (DXY ramifications) in premarket
  • Tuesday - CPI at 8:30am (major data release)
  • Wednesday - FOMC Economic Projections at 2pm
  • Wednesday - FOMC Press Conference with Papa Powell at 2:30pm 
  • Thursday - BoE (UK) and EU Interest Rate decisions - DXY implications at 7:00am
  • Thursday - US Retail Sales at 8:30am
  • Friday - PMI at 8:30am


THE PLAYS OF THE WEEK for SPY:

Let's recap what we know in the market so far:
  • JPow was dovish in tone and has all but guaranteed 50 BPS hike in December. 
  • Jobs Data came in way too hot. Wages went up as did the Job numbers. 
  • CPI and PPI showing inflation is cooling a little
  • Oil is falling
  • TLT (bonds) is rising
  • DXY is above 105 which has been prior support
  • VIX is hanging out near 20
  • FOMC and CPI are scheduled for next week. 
  • PPI data came in above expectations but lower than the previous month.

Here is the truth, no one knows what direction we are headed. There is conflicting data all over the place and the best we can do is have a strong hypothesis of what we can expect in the short term and long term. So, when we are previewing this data, just know that I will be hedged for either direction. 

CPI Preview - 

Twitter user @TradrNate did an amazing job breaking down the previous CPI reports and there impacts in the market. I highly recommend taking a look at the tweet at the end of the post. 
twitter.com/TradrNate/status/1...

CPI is rumored to come in lower than the previous months cooler reading, and thus continue the momentum going for the peak inflation narrative. The Core inflation rate is major reading that matters and it is set to come in at 6.1% compared to last months 6.3% reading. So lets layout the scenarios for this data:
  • Core CPI comes in below 6.2% - This will be a bullish move in the markets. The data now backs up that JPow's aggressive moves are working (albeit slowly) towards lowering inflation. 
  • Core CPI comes in at 6.2% or 6.3% - This will be an initial bearish move and then a bullish recovery imo. Look for a similar move from Friday's PPI. 
  • Core CPI comes in above 6.3% - This will lead to a selloff in the markets. That would mean the bullish CPI report from last month can be treated as a one off. 
I will be playing a strangle on this data release. 

FOMC Preview - 

FOMC is where the fun really begins. JPow is the one man that can shift any trend and create major moves in the markets. One very very important note about this FOMC meeting is that we get the economic projections for the Fed Funds rate. This was not in the last meeting so this was last updated in September. The fed funds rate was projected to be 4.4 in 2022 and 4.6 for 2023. JPow let us know that the Economic Projections would be higher if they were released in the last meeting, so we can safely assume that near 5% is on the table for 2023.

The next section is purely my opinion and prediction for FOMC and how it will play out So please take everything I say with a grain of salt. 

I anticipate that the market will initially move down on the release of the data at 2pm. Then I think JPow will talk the markets up using bullish buzzwords, and be the same kind and gentle JPow that we last saw a few weeks ago. The market will then blast higher while he is speaking, as they believe JPow is satisfied with his efforts and the pain is over from the Fed. 
HOWEVER... the market will start to move down as it digests the data from the economic projections and realize that the Fed is actually going to keep raising rates and have no intentions to pause until more data allows them to. This will lead to a massive selloff and I believe will officially be the end of the inflation trade and the start of the recessionary trade. This will trap and hurt a lot of folks, so be nimble. 

How I am playing FOMC. I will be doing a strangle before the 2pm release and will close out the put side at the data release. I will then hold the call side as I anticipate the kind and gentle JPow. I will then close the call side out once the market shows a reversal back down. Until then, I will ride it up and start grabbing core puts for Feb or March at key levels. But I need to see a reversal first and those economic projections must have 5% on them. If they do not, then my theory is dead and we are headed for a major Santa Rally. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min is close to oversold. 1 hour, 4 hour and daily chart are neutral.
  • SPY is broke under its daily 200MA at 404.79. This MA was the top of the last bear market rally. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 418 is the .236.
  • Bottom line is Bulls need to break 400 and bulls need to break below 390. 


Levels I am Watching - 

  • $SPY - levels 380 > 386 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 403 > 410
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 year ago
by: samosa

Wednesday, December 7th, 2022 Market Preview

The price action has been very volatile the last few sessions. JPow talked last Wednesday and the SPY was at 395 before he started talking. We rocketed up to 410 the next day after the speech. Lingered around 407 on Friday near the close. 

We had a light economic data this week, so the conditions favored the bulls. Well that faded fast as the market started selling off fast on Monday. We broke under 400 on Monday and haven't really looked back since. On Tuesday, we retested 400 and then proceeded to break 396, 395, 393, and bounced off of the 100MA at 392. Back to back days with some solid selling pressure. So the question that everyone is asking... Why? 

Here is my brain dump on what is going on in the markets:
  • JPow was dovish in tone and has all but guaranteed 50 BPS hike in December. 
  • Jobs Data came in way too hot. Wages went up as did the Job numbers. 
  • CPI and PPI showing inflation is cooling a little
  • Oil is falling
  • TLT (bonds) is rising
  • DXY is above 105 which has been prior support
  • VIX is hanging out near 20
  • FOMC and CPI are scheduled for next week. 

So with all that known in the markets, why the price action lately? Well, I have a theory that we have moved on from the Fed Trade (inflation, rate hikes being the focus) to the Recession trade. I expected this shift to happen after FOMC this month to give us one last Fed Trade reaction with the 50 BPS hike causing a spike, but it appears that info and reaction already happened last week with JPow's speech. 

I will be monitoring the TLT moving forward. If it keeps rising and stocks and commodities stay flat or drop, then we know that there is a flight safety happening and we can assume that it is due to recessionary fears. We are getting near the end of the Fed Trade, and now it is whether it has already started or is this just a simple pullback. Time will tell. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I have scalped a lot lately with some good success. I did re-enter some Jan puts for SPX 3800. I am most likely going to exit these before FOMC next week. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


THE PLAYS OF THE WEEK for SPY:

  • Honestly it is just play the trend and stay super light. The 15 min chart with the 8 and 21 EMAs has been incredibly accurate this week. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, and 4 hour are just above oversold. The daily chart is neutral.
  • SPY is broke under its daily 200MA at 404.79. This MA was the top of the last bear market rally. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. I expect us to retest this line soon and most likely it turns into support. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 418 is the .236.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 386 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 year ago
by: samosa

Monday, November 28th, 2022 Market Preview

The holiday week last week gave the market a low volume week that gave the bulls a weekly close above 400. The big question heading into this week is will the rally keep going with JPow speaking on Wednesday? We have a host of data this week that can certainly add fuel to this rally or start the reversal back down. 

On Monday and Tuesday, we have no major data coming in, so the bulls can keep the momentum going without much fear to start the week. However... Wednesday brings the heat. Here is what we are looking at for Wednesday:
  • EU Inflation Data in premarket - this will have DXY implications. 
  • US ADP Employment Data at 8:15am EST - Minor Jobs data report
  • US GDP at 8:30 EST
  • US Wholesale Inventories and US Corporate Profits at 8:30am 
  • ⚠️ JOLTS Job Openings - 10:00am - Very important report to see if the pace of hiring is slowing 
  • ⚠️ Jerome Powell Speech at 1:30pm - The main event of the week. Let's break this one down a little more below. 

It is rather peculiar that JPow is talking a day before the Fed has its 2 week blackout period heading into the December 14th FOMC meeting. Will he be Dr. Doom or will this be a nonevent? All eyes will be glued to every word he says in hopes to give us a sneak peak at what to expect in the Dec meeting. My hunch is he comes in very hawkish and tries to shift the focus from the 50 BPS rate hike coming and push more of a hint that the Federal Funds rate is headed much higher for longer. I also anticipate him to really concentrate on the jobs market still being too hot to even think about slowing the rate hikes down. However, if he comes in even a little bit dovish, the market will rocket up to a possible 430 test in the next 2 weeks imo. Again, all eyes on him Wednesday. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I continued my scalp strategy against my SPX Feb puts. I am currently only holding the core position and will most likely take a small position in calls as a hedge heading into JPow's speech. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • This week is jammed full of data and I have highlighted Wednesday above. 
  • Thursday - PCE inflation data in premarket 
  • Friday - Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30am - This is a sneaky one to look out for. A lot of attention will be placed on Wednesday and Thursday's data. But this one is just as important. 

THE PLAYS OF THE WEEK for SPY:

  • Monday and Tuesday - We don't have any economic data releasing on either day so suspect the bias will be to the upside. With possible de-risking happening at the end of the day on Tuesday. I will be playing very small scalps these two days and will add to my core put position if the SPY tests its 200MA.  
  • Wednesday - This is a huge data day, so I will be doing a small call hedge before JPow speaks just in case he wants to give the bulls a Christmas gift. But the real move will happen after he is done, so I may just tag along after the speech. I am not sure just yet. 
  • Thursday - We have inflation data in the morning and if it comes in cool, this could cancel out any of the hawkish tone that may come in from JPow. I would expect though a continuation move though from JPow regardless of what this data shows. So I am not putting too much weight in this report. 
  • Friday - Depending on the topics that JPow focuses on Wednesday, the Nonfarm payroll data could be a massive report for the market. If my theory is correct that he is shifting to the labor market as the focus, then this report sets up for a nice strangle opportunity in premarket. So I will be looking at doing just that IF Jpow talks heavy about the jobs market on Wednesday. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily charts are all almost overbought. This rally seems to be running out of gas technically. But with the data this week, we could see the rally recharge itself up. 
  • SPY is approaching its daily 200MA at 404.79. This MA was the top of the last bear market rally. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. I expect us to retest this line soon and most likely it turns into support.  407 is the .382 line. That level is near the 200 Daily MA as well, so I expect that to be the target for this rally. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 418 is the .236.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 403 > 405 > 407 > 410 > 413 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 year ago
by: samosa

Monday, November 20th, 2022 Market Preview

We got a holiday week ahead with all the economic data action coming in on Wednesday. Historically, this means a low volume week and thus it is favorable conditions for the bulls. However, last year we say a pretty significant move down of over 15 points on the SPY. 

My gameplan for this week is survival. I am going to go light in all my positions, and not put too much weight in any major moves. I am not sure a trend can be identified this week with the holiday schedule. We are closed on Thursday and are open a half day on Friday. 

JPow has a speech now on 11/30 to discuss the economic outlook and labor markets. I suspect that speech is going to be very very hawkish, so I am looking to fade any major move upward with puts for the end of the year. I am playing that this event will be ultra bearish. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I continued my scalp strategy against my SPX Feb puts. I rolled out my Dec puts to Feb on the day Poland was hit by the missile last week. 
  • I closed out all the calls and am still holding the puts.

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

  • We don't have any economic data releasing on Monday. Bullard does speak at 2:45pm and he is the hawkish of them all. Last week, he hit the market with a possible 5-7% Fed Funds rate estimation, so I suspect he doubles down on that. 
  • I am looking at very short term trades all week. We are talking a few minutes at most and keeping my size way down. This is a good week for testing out some technical strategies. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily charts are all neutral.
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. I expect us to retest this line soon and most likely it turns into support.  407 is the .382 line. That level is near the 200 Daily MA as well, so I expect that to be the target for this rally. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 418 is the .236.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 386 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 403 > 407 > 410 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 year ago
by: samosa

Monday, November 13th, 2022 Market Preview

On Thursday, I said we had a recipe for a green trend day with the bank holiday. We had the UoM report that came out mixed. The consumer sentiment was lower and that was the bullish slant. The 5 year inflation consumer expectations went up, and that was the bearish slant. We dropped on the release, and I ended up buying the dip. We are in a short term bullish trend, so the only bearish item in the report was a long term macro data point. The market digested the report, and continued on its move upward. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I continued my scalp strategy against my SPX Dec puts. I grabbed SPX calls and AAPL calls and made a nice profit on the day. 
  • I closed out all the calls and am still holding the puts. I will look at grabbing some more calls on the next drop to a key level. 
  • My core puts position was 30% of my portfolio and it now down to 10%. However my cash position has increased over 60% while holding the puts.
  • I may start grabbing Feb puts if we break above 404. I am not in a hurry to start this position just yet as I think this rally has some more legs. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Fed Speakers are all over the place this week. And I expect a few more to surprise us each day like what happened last Friday. 
  • Monday - Brainard Speech at 11:30am
  • Tuesday - PPI inflation release at 8:30am
  • Tuesday - Cook Speech at 9:00am
  • Tuesday - Barr Testimony at 10:00am
  • Wednesday - Retail Sales at 8:30am ⚠️
  • Wednesday - Williams Speech at 9:50am
  • Wednesday - LaGrande Speech at 10:00am (DXY implicaitons)
  • Wednesday - Waller Speech at 2:35pm 
  • Thursday - Building Permits and Housing Data at 8:30am
  • Friday - Existing Home Sales at 10:00am

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

  • We don't have any economic data releasing on Monday. Waller on Sunday talked about how the Fed is not looking at relaxing, but they are most likely going to 50 BPS hike in December. This signaled a shift of focus imo to the economic projection rate more than the actual rate hike. So I would not get too bullish about the 50 BPS hike, and expect a larger projection to come in December. That means we got more rate hikes coming for longer. 
  • Even with that information, I am still in buy the dip mode. I do expect a pullback on Monday and possibly into Tuesday with the PPI data. But I will be looking for a reversal candle at a key level and will be jumping in short term calls for a few weeks out. 
  • I will keep adding long term puts at major key levels. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, and 4 hour charts are overbought. Daily is close to overbought conditions. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line. I expect us to retest this line soon and most likely it turns into support.  407 is the .382 line. That level is near the 200 Daily MA as well, so I expect that to be the target for this rally. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 418 is the .236.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 403 > 407 > 410 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 year ago
by: samosa

Friday, November 11th, 2022 Market Preview

Happy Veteran's Day to all those who have served. Thank you for all the sacrifices you have and are making for our great country. Now onto to Thursday's recap:
What a Day. What a Day. What a Day...
The CPI came in much cooler than anyone expected and the market went absolutely nuts. A massive rally that saw SPY break 390 and test 395. I have been very critical of these rallies in the past due to many of them being based on a lot of fluff and not much substance. Well today, the bulls got some economic data that can, at least in the short term, merit some peak inflation optimism. It was a historic day for QQQ and SPY and now 410 is firmly in the bulls sights. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I entered the big CPI day fully hedged on my core December puts. That hedge paid off as I was wildly green for the day, and I still have that core position. If the market corrects by the end of the year, those puts will be up huge. But for now, I am trading unrealized losses for realized gains with scalps and hedges. This is working out well for me. 
  • I scalped calls all day long and decided to just hold my core Dec puts position overnight. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

  • We have a bank holiday on a weekly options expiration day. This has the setup for another one of those slow grind up all day, green trend days. So I will be looking at buying any dips and playing calls for the next few weeks. There are no major landmines imo until Next week's PPI and Retail sales. But even those are kind of low on the totem pole. 
  • I will keep adding long term puts at major key levels. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are overbought. 4 hour and Daily are close to overbought conditions. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line and we broke it today. I expect us to retest this line soon and most likely it turns into support.  407 is the .382 line. That level is near the 200 Daily MA as well, so I expect that to be the target for this rally. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 418 is the .236.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 380 (major level) > 383 > 386 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 403 > 407
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 year ago
by: samosa

Wednesday, November 9th, 2022 Market and CPI Preview

The market was a wild one today. We started off flat and then slowly moved up to 385. It was a low volume move, no news move upward. Then 1pm happened and we started the move downward. The bond market had an auction that had increased demand at that time and some speculated that was the trigger. I think that was a part of the equation but not sure it was alone the cause of a drop of 7 points in an hour to 378. We sharply ran up the next hour to 374 and faded back in the close. It was a wild wild last few hours of the day. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • My core put position wasn't too bad today. I even added a few more and have them until December. 
  • I swung a call hedge overnight and closed those nice and green at the open. I then scalped AMD and SPX calls all the way up to 384. I then went one more time in the SPX calls at the 385 test and then the bottom fell out. This wiped out most of my profits today. Very infuriating...
  • My DWAC play ended up profitable on the shares and red on the calls. I am still holding a few calls to see if the anticipated republican wins will push it higher in the morning. 
  • Rought day for me all around. Broke a lot of rules, overtraded, and went off script. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Fed Speakers are all over the place this week. And I expect a few more to surprise us each day like what happened last Friday. 
  • Wednesday - Wholesale Inventories at 10:00am 
  • Wednesday - Fed Speaker Barkin at 11:00am
  • Thursday - CPI Inflation Data at 8:30am  ⚠️
  • Thursday - So many Fed officials talking following the CPI report. Going to be a wild day
  • Friday - UoM Consumer Sentiment at 10:00am

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

  • The big event is on Thursday in premarket with the CPI, so I anticipate Wednesday to be a very choppy day. I lean that it will be red with some de-risking happening throughout the day. 
  • I will look at entering calls on any dip tomorrow to hedge my core puts position heading into the big CPI day. 

CPI Preview: 

  • The headline number is expected to drop from 8.2% to 7.9%.
  • The core number is expected to drop from 6.6% to 6.5%.
  • If the core inflation rate comes in at or below expectations, you will see a major bullish move in the markets initially off the reading. The thing to watch here is if the move stays during the regular market session on Thursday. If it does not fade, we could see a major run to 410 in the next few weeks. If move gets faded, we are stuck in a choppy mess from 375 to 390 for a while. 
  • If the core inflation comes in above expectations, we could a violent move down. Possible June lows test at 362 by the end of the week and possible new yearly lows within a few weeks. 
  • JPow needs to see meaningful drops in inflation for consecutive months before he will consider slowing rate hikes. With the rise in energy prices in the last few weeks, it is hard to see inflation slowing meaningful anytime soon. 
  • Reminder: Fed target rate for core inflation is 2%, so we are a ways away from a rate that JPow will be satisfied with. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line and was met with rejection this week.  362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This is proving to be solid support now. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 361. The bulls need to keep this level.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 363 > 366 > 370 > 373 > 376 > 380 (major level) > 383 > 386 > 390
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 year ago
by: samosa

Tuesday, November 8th, 2022 Market Preview

The market pushed higher today on no real news. There were some rumors of Trump announcing his 2024 campaign for the presidency. Pretty telling signal that the market stayed green with the China news coming in that they are not relaxing on their Zero COVID policy.

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • My core put position took a hit today. I have them until December but damn I hate seeing red. 
  • I added a call hedge near the end of the day. I missed a better entry by being too cute and waiting for a 374 test. Never got it so I had to grab the calls much higher than I wanted. 
  • I also went a little off script and grabbed some DWAC with the elections coming tomorrow and Trump hinting at announcing a run for 2024. Probably going to get killed on this play, but I couldn't resist it. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Fed Speakers are all over the place this week. And I expect a few more to surprise us each day like what happened last Friday. 
  • Tuesday - Midterms Elections
  • Wednesday - Wholesale Inventories at 10:00am 
  • Wednesday - Fed Speaker Barkin at 11:00am
  • Thursday - CPI Inflation Data at 8:30am  ⚠️ (I will be doing a special preview on this later this week)
  • Thursday - So many Fed officials talking following the CPI report. Going to be a wild day
  • Friday - UoM Consumer Sentiment at 10:00am

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:

  • Not much change from yesterday's preview. 
  • I think we have a few days of chop with a slight lean to the upside. Not expecting a major move until CPI on Thursday. 
  • I am positioned in my 12/30 puts and will continue to play short term calls on any dips to protect my core position. If I can keep stacking realized gains on short term calls while my December puts marinate, I will be sitting pretty when the market finally drops. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min is close to overbought. 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line and was met with rejection this week.  362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This is proving to be solid support now. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 361. The bulls need to keep this level.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 363 > 366 > 370 > 373 > 376 > 380 (major level) > 383 > 386 > 390
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 year ago
by: samosa

Monday, November 7th, 2022 Market Preview

 Friday was a roller coaster ride. We tested 370 three times and closed on a nice move into the close. The DXY fell off a cliff on various news from Bank of Canada, Bank of England and China re-opening optimism. Commodities and Precious metals ran off the DXY drop. It was a fun day to follow. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I entered Friday with my 12/30 SPX puts position and 0DTE SPX calls to play the jobs data as a hedge. We opened up way up and I closed the SPX calls at the open for a nice gain. That increased my cash position and allowed me to stomach any negative move against my core puts position that may happen. I will look to doing this again before the CPI report. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Fed Speakers are all over the place this week. And I expect a few more to surprise us each day like what happened last Friday. 
  • Monday - Fed Speakers Collins and Mester at 3:40pm
  • Monday - Fed Speaker Barkin at 6:00pm. 
  • Tuesday - Midterms Elections
  • Wednesday - Wholesale Inventories at 10:00am 
  • Wednesday - Fed Speaker Barkin at 11:00am
  • Thursday - CPI Inflation Data at 8:30am  ⚠️ (I will be doing a special preview on this later this week)
  • Thursday - So many Fed officials talking following the CPI report. Going to be a wild day
  • Friday - UoM Consumer Sentiment at 10:00am

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

  • All eyes will be on the futures session on Sunday night. With China confirming the zero COVID policy, do precious metals and commodities keep their move up? Does the DXY start catching bids and thus moves the market back down? Do Fed Speakers keep contradicting each other with the pace of rate hikes. 
  • I am positioned in my 12/30 puts and will continue to play short term calls on any dips to protect my core position. If I can keep stacking realized gains on short term calls while my December puts marinate, I will be sitting pretty when the market finally drops. 
  • We have CPI this week so I do expect some short covering on Wednesday if we are falling this week. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min ,1 hour, 4 hour and Daily are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line and was met with rejection this week.  362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This is proving to be solid support now. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 361. The bulls need to keep this level.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 363 > 366 > 370 > 373 > 376 > 380 (major level) > 383 > 386 > 390
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 year ago
by: samosa

Friday, November 4th, 2022 Market Preview

It was a pretty muted day on Thursday. Not a lot of clarity in the markets with the big jobs data release on Friday in premarket. One note for the bears was they were able to close below the 373 support area, but all that is voided with a cooler jobs report. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I closed out my 11/11 SPX puts for a nice profit and entered some SPX 3600p for 12/30. I got a healthy amount of these today and will look to hold them as a core position. 
  • I entered a strangle play about midday for the jobs report in the morning. I ended up way up on the put side with the flush we got at the end of the day, so I closed that side out. I have enough exposure to the downside with the December puts so I essentially am treating the call side as a small hedge if the jobs number is cooler. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

  • All eyes are on the jobs report in the morning. So lets go through some scenarios as to what to look out for. 
    • Jobs Expectations: 
      • Nonfarm Payrolls: 205k expected; 263k last month
      • Unemployment: 3.5% expected; 3.5% last month
      • Avg Hourly Wage: 0.3% expected; 0.3% last month
    • As you can see, we are expected to go way down in the jobs number this month by over 50k. 
    • Scenario 1: Jobs number comes in at or below expectations + Unemployment is unchanged. This would be a slight lean to the bullish side as the jobs number came down, but with the unemployment rate so low, that is not really a clear signal for bulls to rally the market up on. This would be a fade the rip opportunity if we moved up. 
    • Scenario 2: Unemployment comes down - This is a bearish indicator and will cancel out any hope if the jobs number comes in cooler. This has to start going up for bulls to have an advantage in the Fed narrative. 
    • Scenario 3: Unemployment goes up + Jobs are at or below expectations - This is the bullish read and the market will move up on it. 
    • Scenario 4: Unemployment is flat + Jobs come in above expectations. This is bearish and this will trigger a move down. 
    • Scenario 5: Unemployment is flat + Jobs come in above last months reading - We will test the June lows in a swift move down. 
  • I am already positioned for either side. I have my long term puts if we get a bearish move and I have the insurance in my 0DTE calls if we get a bullish move. So I am going to let the chips fall as they may. 
  • If I was all cash and the report came in slightly bullish, I would be looking at fading the rips near 373, 376, or 380 if it got that high. We have CPI next week plus the bulls will need a lot of consecutive favorable economic reports to even hint at JPow pausing anytime soon. So to play calls here for more than a scalp is super risky if the data does not support it. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are close to oversold. 4 hour and Daily are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line and was met with rejection this week.  362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This is proving to be solid support now. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 361. The bulls need to keep this level.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 363 > 366 > 370 > 373 > 376 > 380 (major level) > 383
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 year ago
by: samosa

Thursday, November 3rd, 2022 Market Preview

FOMC Recap - 

What a day. What a day. What a day...
FOMC is always a very entertaining day and today did not disappoint. The overwhelming consensus was that JPow was going to buckle under the pressure and give a hint that a possible slow down in rate hikes was coming in December. He made sure that that was not going to happen by making the following statements:
  • "It is very premature to think about Pausing. We have a ways to go."
  • "I expect us to continue to update the summary of economic projections upward in December"
  • "I don't see the case for softening in the labor market."
  • "If we overtighten, we can use our tools to respond."
  • "Has the window for a soft landing narrowed? Yes."
And on and on and on he went with the hawkish tone. His final statement was very direct in letting market participants that the Fed is not close to pausing. 

So the focus now shifts back to the economic data releases. We have a big jobs data release on Friday and then CPI next week. But he needs to see a few MONTHS of slowing before he will think about slowing. 

In summary, fade the rip is back on the table until the June Lows on SPY are retested. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I entered a strangle right before FOMC and it ultimately worked out well. I entered some 11/11 SPX puts when JPow made it clear that he was not pausing. They are up nicely. 
  • I went ahead and sold my SPX puts for March and took a nasty loss on the NEM call options. With the DXY jumping after FOMC, I don't need to be in a hurry with this one. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:

  • JPow brought the pain, and then brought it again. Then he said it one more time to make sure that everyone knows that he is bringing in the pain. 
  • I am going to look at fading any rip that happens now in the market. It sure looks like the market will be retesting the June lows again very soon. Looking at entering puts for the end of the year.  My swing trading strategy is back!

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are close to oversold. 4 hour and Daily are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line and was met with rejection this week.  362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This is proving to be solid support now. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 361. The bulls need to keep this level.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 363 > 366 > 370 > 373 > 376 > 380 (major level) > 383
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 year ago
by: samosa

FOMC Preview - November 2nd

I wanted to do a preview for the upcoming FOMC meeting and share my thesis on what to expect. The FOMC rate hike decision is set for the Wednesday November 2nd, 2022 at 2pm EST. 

Lets recap the last few rate hikes by the FOMC:
Forbes - forbes.com/advisor/investing/f...


The consensus for the November rate hike is another 75 BPS hike. As you can see from the above figure that would mean we are expecting 4 straight 75 BPS hikes in a row. From 1% in May to 4% in November, which is right on pace to what the summary of economic projections showed us at the last meeting. 

It is important to note that we are not getting an update on the economic projections at this meeting. In the last meeting, we did get that summary updated, which ended up being the critical data to look at. Not many folks recall, but in the last FOMC meeting, the market was rocketing higher as JPow spoke during his press conference in the early going. He kept using bullish buzzwords with his answers and the market was enjoying it. Once he was done speaking, the market started digesting the economic data projections and down we went. 

So for this meeting, we only have the rate hike statement and then JPow's presser to go off of. That makes this FOMC meeting all about how JPow talks and if he hints at what will come in the December meeting. Below are my bullish and bearish arguments for the November FOMC meeting:

Bullish Thesis - 

  • No summary of economic projections
  • No shock regarding the rate hike. 75 BPS hike is fully expected
  • Powell is not pressured here to be overly hawkish. The path of rate hikes is on schedule for what he has said he wants to do. 
  • If we get a lack of clarity for the December meeting, that will allow the Fed Pivot narrative to continue on as JPow did not rule out the 50 BPS hike for then. 
  • Midterms are a week after the meeting, this historically is a bullish catalyst. 
  • The lack of commitment to let us know about the December meeting is there since JPow can allow a few more jobs reports and inflation reports to come in before having to decide December's rate hike.  

Bearish Thesis - 

  • No impactful change in core inflation, so the motivation for JPow to be dovish is small
  • The market rallying into the event, can give JPow ammunition to be as hawkish as he was in Jackson Hole to ease market expectations. 
  • Comment below if you have any additional bearish thesis' cause I am struggling here. And I am super bearish

How I am playing it - 

  • I am leaning that this is a bullish event on Wednesday. I will look at entering 50% of my call position on Monday and hold through JPow's event. If it is indeed a bullish event, I will look at adding the rest of my position afterwards. 
  • I am currently collecting March puts, so if I am incorrect about the calls, I am still ok given that position. 
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 year ago
by: samosa

Friday, October 28th, 2022 Market Preview

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I had an overnight swing with XOM calls and closed them out at the open for a nice gain. I needed that win. 
  • I am still holding SPX puts for March and I started building a position in NEM, a gold miner. 
  • I will look to do small scalps this week and next since we have a lot of landmines ahead. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

  • So AAPL and AMZN reported after the bell and it was pretty epic. AMZN had bad earnings and AAPL had pretty good report. The market is holding up pretty well after the carnage of AMZN, META, GOOGL, and MSFT this week. Honestly, how is the SPY even close to 380 is beyond me. 
  • I am going to look at buying the dip on Friday if PCE Core brings it down. I am starting to lean that JPow is a bullish event next week as everything the market is expecting is priced in until the CPI report in 2 weeks. 
  • NEM and GLD are looking really good for a long term hold with the DXY starting to crack. I am looking at adding some December 45c for NEM. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


Earnings this Week:

earnings-october-24.jpeg 273.93 KB
  • Highlights - UPS, MSFT, GOOG, V, BA, META, MCD, AAPL, AMZN, XOM - Buckle up!

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are neutral. 4 hour is close to overbought and Daily is still neutral. 
  • There is still bullish divergence on the 4 hour and daily chart. If SPY runs past 385 then we got a much larger divergence happening that would suggest a nice move up from a technical perspective. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line and 362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This is proving to be solid support now. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 359. The bulls need to keep this level.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 373 > 375 > 378 > 380 (major level) > 383 > 386 > 390
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 year ago
by: samosa

Wednesday, October 26th, 2022 Market Preview

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I scalped some more XOM and AAPL calls yesterday. I re-entered the XOM calls and are still holding them. 
  • I grabbed a short term put on SPX. I will look to get out of this at the open. 
  • I did not add anymore to my core puts position. I am looking at adding another one at 386.
  • I will look to do small scalps this week and next since we have a lot of landmines ahead. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

  • DXY is really falling in futures behind the news that China was dumping the dollar. This will be a positive catalyst for commodities and stocks. 
  • I am looking at AAPL calls again today. Even though MSFT and GOOGL are down big after earnings yesterday, I expect the dip buyers to show up and grab AAPL heading into the earnings. The bulls are looking for any reason to buy, and I expect AAPL to start catching bids out the gate. 
  • NEM and GLD are looking really good for a long term hold with the DXY starting to crack. I am looking at adding some December 40c for NEM today. 
  • I still expect this week to be pretty choppy with a 10 point range forming until we get to AAPL's earnings on Thursday. 


What Am I Looking Out For This Week?  - 

  • All eyes on the big tech earnings this week. GOOGL, MSFT, META, AMZN, and AAPL all report within 48 hours of each other. 
  • AAPL's earnings will be the key for a trend setter moving forward. If AAPL reports stellar earnings, we got a rally that could last a few weeks until the CPI report on 11/10. If the earnings are terrible, could trigger a major sell off as the biggest company is showing cracks and gives us a hint that a major recession is already brewing. If AAPL comes in at expectations, I think you will see the market rally up a little as well. For Capitulation to happen, AAPL has to report poor earnings. So this could delay that event for another quarter. 
  • DXY has some catalysts this week with EU interest rate decisions on Thursday. Could be a negative catalyst for the dollar. 
  • If the DXY keeps falling, I will look at starting a position in GLD or NEM as I think Gold will start catching bids. I would like to grab a June 2023 ITM call and just forget about. Gold moves slowly, but in this environment, it could turn into a nice flight to safety if the DXY starts to drop. 
  • Wild card this week will be the PCE inflation data on Friday. This could spark a rally on its own if the data is cooler.  

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Fed Speakers are in a blackout period so we won't hear from them until 11/04. 
  • Wednesday - Building permits at 8:30am and New Home sales at 10am
  • Thursday - GDP data and Durable Home Goods at 8:30am
  • Thursday - 🇪🇺 ECB Interest Rate Hike Decision at 8:15. This is expected to be 75 BPS. 
  • Thursday - 🇪🇺 LaGarde Speaks at 10:15am
  • Thursday - 🇬🇧 BoE Woods Speaks
  • Friday - PCE inflation data at 8:30am  ⚠️

Earnings this Week:

earnings-october-24.jpeg 273.93 KB
  • Highlights - UPS, MSFT, GOOG, V, BA, META, MCD, AAPL, AMZN, XOM - Buckle up!

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are now overbought. 4 hour is close and Daily is still neutral. 
  • There is a potential major bullish divergence on the 4 hour and daily chart. If SPY runs past 385 then we got a much larger divergence happening that would suggest a nice move up from a technical perspective. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 390 is the .236 line and 362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This is proving to be solid support now. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 359. The bulls need to keep this level.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 373 > 375 > 378 > 380 (major level) > 383 > 386 > 390
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 year ago
by: samosa

Tuesday, October 25th, 2022 Market Preview

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I rolled my 11/30 puts into 03/23 ones just in case this bear market rally has more legs to it. I will continue to build up this position and play scalps along the way. I know where this market is ultimately headed, I just need to make sure I give myself enough time to play it. 
  • I scalped some AAPL calls today for a nice gain. If the market wants to run, AAPL is going to lead the charge. 
  • I will look to do small scalps this week and next since we have a lot of landmines ahead. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:

  • Earnings will start to fuel the price action for the next few days. UPS kicks us off in the morning and all eyes will be on whether they mimic what FedEx said about the holiday season being a little slower this year. GOOGL and MSFT report afterhours so we could see some de-risking heading into the close. 
  • I still expect this week to be pretty choppy with a 10 point range forming until we get to AAPL's earnings on Thursday. 
  • If we get a dip to 373, I will look to re-enter my AAPL 150c again for a daily scalp. 
  • I will be waiting until 10:30am and see if I can set up some intraday Fibs and try and identify any scalps. 


What Am I Looking Out For This Week?  - 

  • All eyes on the big tech earnings this week. GOOGL, MSFT, META, AMZN, and AAPL all report within 48 hours of each other. 
  • AAPL's earnings will be the key for a trend setter moving forward. If AAPL reports stellar earnings, we got a rally that could last a few weeks until the CPI report on 11/10. If the earnings are terrible, could trigger a major sell off as the biggest company is showing cracks and gives us a hint that a major recession is already brewing. If AAPL comes in at expectations, I think you will see the market rally up a little as well. For Capitulation to happen, AAPL has to report poor earnings. So this could delay that event for another quarter. 
  • DXY has some catalysts this week with EU interest rate decisions on Thursday. Could be a negative catalyst for the dollar. 
  • If the DXY keeps falling, I will look at starting a position in GLD or NEM as I think Gold will start catching bids. I would like to grab a June 2023 ITM call and just forget about. Gold moves slowly, but in this environment, it could turn into a nice flight to safety if the DXY starts to drop. 
  • Wild card this week will be the PCE inflation data on Friday. This could spark a rally on its own if the data is cooler.  

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Fed Speakers are in a blackout period so we won't hear from them until 11/04. 
  • Tuesday - Consumer Confidence report at 10am
  • Wednesday - Building permits at 8:30am and New Home sales at 10am
  • Thursday - GDP data and Durable Home Goods at 8:30am
  • Thursday - 🇪🇺 ECB Interest Rate Hike Decision at 8:15. This is expected to be 75 BPS. 
  • Thursday - 🇪🇺 LaGarde Speaks at 10:15am
  • Thursday - 🇬🇧 BoE Woods Speaks
  • Friday - PCE inflation data at 8:30am  ⚠️

Earnings this Week:

earnings-october-24.jpeg 273.93 KB
  • Highlights - UPS, MSFT, GOOG, V, BA, META, MCD, AAPL, AMZN, XOM - Buckle up!

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are  basically overbought. 4 hour and Daily are still neutral. 
  • There is bullish divergence on the 4 hour and daily chart. If SPY runs past 380 then we got a much larger divergence happening that would suggest a nice move up from a technical perspective. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This is proving to be solid support now. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 359. The bulls need to keep this level.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 62 > 367 > 370 > 373 > 375 > 378 > 380 (major level) > 383 > 386
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 year ago
by: samosa

Monday, October 24th, 2022 Market Preview - Landmines Everywhere!

What Am I Looking Out For This Week?  - 

  • All eyes on the big tech earnings this week. GOOGL, MSFT, META, AMZN, and AAPL all report within 48 hours of each other. 
  • AAPL's earnings will be the key for a trend setter moving forward. If AAPL reports stellar earnings, we got a rally that could last a few weeks until the CPI report on 11/10. If the earnings are terrible, could trigger a major sell off as the biggest company is showing cracks and gives us a hint that a major recession is already brewing. If AAPL comes in at expectations, I think you will see the market rally up a little as well. For Capitulation to happen, AAPL has to report poor earnings. So this could delay that event for another quarter. 
  • The DXY and TNX are going to be closely monitored. On Friday, DXY started to rollover on a combination of the WSJ article suggesting the Fed will do 75 BPS hike in November and 50 BPS in December, and Japan intervening with the FX market. 
  • DXY has some catalysts this week with EU interest rate decisions on Thursday. Could be a negative catalyst for the dollar. 
  • If the DXY keeps falling, I will look at starting a position in GLD or NEM as I think Gold will start catching bids. I would like to grab a June 2023 ITM call and just forget about. Gold moves slowly, but in this environment, it could turn into a nice flight to safety if the DXY starts to drop. 
  • Wild card this week will be the PCE inflation data on Friday. This could spark a rally on its own if the data is cooler.  

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I continued to hold my core puts for 11/30 on Friday and took a beating. As we kept going up, I kept adding an additional contract as we climbed. Probably stupid, probably genius, not sure which one yet. Most likely scenario for me here is to roll these out to March 2023 3300p for $100 a contract and just leave this position alone. 
  • I will look to do small scalps this week and next since we have a lot of landmines ahead. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Fed Speakers are in a blackout period so we won't hear from them until 11/04. 
  • Tuesday - Consumer Confidence report at 10am
  • Wednesday - Building permits at 8:30am and New Home sales at 10am
  • Thursday - GDP data and Durable Home Goods at 8:30am
  • Thursday - 🇪🇺 ECB Interest Rate Hike Decision at 8:15. This is expected to be 75 BPS. 
  • Thursday - 🇪🇺 LaGarde Speaks at 10:15am
  • Thursday - 🇬🇧 BoE Woods Speaks
  • Friday - PCE inflation data at 8:30am  ⚠️

Earnings this Week:

earnings-october-24.jpeg 273.93 KB
  • Highlights - UPS, MSFT, GOOG, V, BA, META, MCD, AAPL, AMZN, XOM - Buckle up!

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are getting close to overbought. 4 hour and Daily are neutral. 
  • There is bullish divergence on the 4 hour and daily chart which points to SPY hitting near 378. If that runs past 380 then we got a much larger divergence happening that would suggest a nice move up from a technical perspective. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This is proving to be solid support now. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 359. The bulls need to keep this level.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

  • We don't have much on the calendar on Monday so we could see a choppy day/ continuation from Friday. Consolidation though seems to be what we will see given the amount of data coming after Monday. 
  • I would imagine this week to be pretty choppy with a 10 point range forming until we get to AAPL's earnings on Thursday. 
  • I will be waiting until 10:30am and see if I can set up some intraday Fibs and try and identify any scalps. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 358 > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 > 373 > 375 > 378 > 380 (major level)

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 year ago
by: samosa

Friday, October 21, 2022 Market Preview

What Happened on Thursday? - 

  • The market had a minor dip and then ripped up shortly after the bell to 372 area. Then Fed speaker Harker spoke about inflation and the gains quickly diminished and we closed at 365. 
  • One thing I want to point out is that the DXY and TNX were screaming that this drop was going to happen. In the morning, the DXY was down but the TNX was up. When this happens, I always have some pause and normally wait for them to be in line before I make a move. I ended up breaking that rule and costing myself a fair amount of money.  The DXY started to regain its losses after Harker's speech, once that started to gain steam, it was a signla to me to re-enter puts. That is what I did, just a bit too late as I was holding calls expecting a bounce. 
  • So in summary, keep an eye on the DXY and TNX at all times. The DXY is the king of jungle, so do not ignore this at all. I will never again make this mistake. 
  • SNAP reported earnings and they were pretty rough. SNAP dropped from 11 to under 8 in seconds. 

What Am I Looking Out For This Week?  - 

  • All eyes continue to be on the DXY and TNX. If the DXY cools, stocks will go up. I would argue that the DXY is the hardest instrument to follow and predict. So since the market is inversing the DXY, the difficulty level for swing traders just got raised to the hardest level. 

Current Positions and Plays - 

  • I completely fumbled yesterday by entering calls and holding them too long. I was extremely distracted and honestly should not have traded anything. 
  • I am currently back in my SPX core puts position. I have about 50% of my full position and will continue to look at building this position back up. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 


Earnings this Week:

earnings-october-16.jpeg 252.94 KB

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour, Daily are neutral.  
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This back to being major support as we are well above it again. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. The 380 looks to be tested this week imo. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 359. The bulls need to keep this level.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY - 

  • With SNAP's earnings and the upcoming inflation report at noon, it is hard to even consider calls today. So I will be looking at put entries at key levels 363 or even if we get fortunate enough at 365. 
  • The next positive catalyst Bulls have is GOOGL and MSFT earnings on Tuesday in afterhours. I am very comfortable holding puts until then.  
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 355 > 357 > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 > 373

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 year ago
by: samosa

Wednesday, October 19th Market Preview

What Happened on Tuesday? - 

  • The market started gapping up to 375 at the open. It struggled to hold this level and began to slowly bleed out the rest of the morning. 
  • Around 12pm EST the market started to slowly recover and it looked destined to set new highs for the session and then AAPL news hit. 
  • An AAPL article came out that they are pulling back some of the production of the iPhone 14 Plus. This seemed to confirm the previous report of this story that was released back in September. The market started selling off in a hurry to erase most of the gains on the day to 368.  
  • In the last hour, the market recovered and ended up closing over 371. 
  • NFLX reported stellar earnings in afterhours and the market boomed on it. This brings some hopium to the rest of the big earnings releases coming up in the next few weeks. It was a surprise report and could lead to a sustained bear market rally for the rest of the week. 

What Am I Looking Out For This Week?  - 

  • This is a very light week for economic data, so no data will come in to sent the trend. So this will make this week very tricky as the major items are earnings for companies. 
  • It is earnings season! This pretty much puts swing trades on ice for the next few weeks until the dust settles. I expect a mix bag of results on every report and the market reactions will be very unpredictable. 
  • All eyes continue to be on the DXY and TNX. If the DXY cools, stocks will go up. I would argue that the DXY is the hardest instrument to follow and predict. So since the market is inversing the DXY, the difficulty level for swing traders just got raised to the hardest level. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I am holding a SPX call that I grabbed right when NFLX reported their earnings. I will look to seel this one at the open tomorrow.  
  • Scalps - I am getting back into scalp trading as well when the setups merit it. This means waiting until 10:30am and let my intraday Fibs have some data to work with. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?


Earnings this Week:

earnings-october-16.jpeg 252.94 KB

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are almost in overbought territory. The 4 hour and Daily are neutral.  
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This back to being major support as we are well above it again. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. The 380 looks to be tested this week imo. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 359. The bulls need to keep this level.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

  • We have a lot of housing data tomorrow morning so we will get some good data on how that segment of the economy is holding up. It is anticipated to be weak. 
  • I will be looking to see if there is any continuation from NFLX earnings that will keep the market moving up. If the market keeps riding the hopium, it will be a nice green trend day. 
  • TSLA is reporting earnings AH and it has been beaten and abused heading into this report. So to me the surprise is to the upside, which could give this bear market rally some more fuel to keep going.  
  • I have my SPX call and I will most likely sell it at the open, hopefully for a nice profit. Then I will look to scalp some plays after 10:30am. 
  • I will be waiting until 10:30am and see if I can set up some intraday Fibs and try and identify any scalps. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 > 373 > 375 (psych level) > 378 > 380 (major level)
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 year ago
by: samosa

Monday, October 17th Market Preview

What Am I Looking Out For This Week?  - 

  • This is a very light week for economic data, so no data will come in to sent the trend. So this will make this week very tricky as the major items are earnings for companies. 
  • It is earnings season! This pretty much puts swing trades on ice for the next few weeks until the dust settles. I expect a mix bag of results on every report and the market reactions will be very unpredictable. 
  • All eyes continue to be on the DXY and TNX. If the DXY cools, stocks will go up. I would argue that the DXY is the hardest instrument to follow and predict. So since the market is inversing the DXY, the difficulty level for swing traders just got raised to the hardest level. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • No positions. After last week's roller coaster journey on Thursday and Friday, I needed a reset. I finished last week green by a small margin, but I just could not get a good feel of where the market was heading. So like my momma has told me, when in doubt, do without. 
  • Scalps - I am getting back into scalp trading as well when the setups merit it. This means waiting until 10:30am and let my intraday Fibs have some data to work with. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?


Earnings this Week:

earnings-october-16.jpeg 252.94 KB
  • Highlights - BOA, GS, NFLX, PG, T, TSLA, SNAP, AAL, AXP 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily are neutral. When these conditions are present I normally revert back to the data releases. Unfortunately, there is not any new data coming this week outside of earnings.   
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. I would not be surprise for this level to get recaptured and hold this week. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 359. The bulls need to keep this level.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

  • We don't much on the calendar on Monday so we could see a choppy day. The donwtrend from Friday could continue into Monday which could just see a slow bled day. Consolidation though seems to be what we will see. 
  • I am looking for a 350 to 370 range for the next few weeks.
  • Everyone is looking for a capitulation type move in the market. For it to happen this week, it will need to come from some international surprise news to trigger it. 
  • I will be waiting until 10:30am and see if I can set up some intraday Fibs and try and identify any scalps. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 350 > 353 > 355 > 358 > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 year ago
by: samosa

Friday, October 14th Market Preview

What Happened on Thursday?

  • SPY Day Range: 348.11 - 367.51 (New 52 week Low set)
  • The CPI came in slightly above forecasts and it was a hot read. The market violently reacted in premarket to the report and just stuck right at the 350 level.
  • The 50% Fib line from COVID lows to All Time Highs was 349 and that held up.
  • We then got a face ripping rally that was sparked by a few things, oversold conditions, short covering, major level support, and BoE pivoting. Unbelievable day. 
  • Also of note, earnings so far have been great (DAL, PepsiCo) and not so doom and gloom. This is bringing optimism for the upcoming earnings season. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I had set up a strangle heading into CPI and just fumbled my execution again. I quickly closed out the call side and rolled that amount in a hedge play that was closer to the current price. I then sold that hedge for peanuts and continued to hold my puts. My bias got me good today. Ended down over $6k when I should have had a green day. 
  • I am holding calls that are for about 10 days out. I will see how tomorrow plays out and make a decision on whether to sell or hold them. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?

  • Friday: Retail Sales Data at 8:30am
  • Friday: UoM Consumer Sentiment at 10am
  • Friday: BoE decision on whether they really will stop QE. This has been a roller coaster ride. 

Earnings this Week:

  • Friday Premarket - JPM, MS, C, WFC, 
  • Next Major Tech earnings is 10/18 with TSLA. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are close to overbought. 4 hour and Daily are neutral.
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. Bulls continue to reclaim this level even when all hope seems to be lost. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500.
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 358. The bulls need to keep this level.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

  • All eyes are going to be on the DXY and TNX. If they continue to fall, the market can sustain this rally. If they go up, then the market will fall. 
  • If the market continues to rally, I think we see a 380 test very soon next week. 
  • If we break under 362, I think you have to assume that this rally was a one off and we are eventually headed lower. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 350 > 353 > 355 > 358 > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 > 373 > 376
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 year ago
by: samosa

Thursday, October 13th Market and CPI Preview

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:

  • We are going to skip all the recaps and technicals and make this post pretty cut and dry. 
  • We have CPI on Thursday morning at 8:30am EST. This is all that matters and we should look for the following:
    • Core CPI over 6.5% - If we rip up, fade the rip. If we drop, follow the drop until a reversal candle comes in on the 15 min chart. Possible capitulation event if the reading is very hot. That would be an eventual move to the pre-Covid highs at 340 next week. That also puts the 100 BPS hike on the table for November's meeting. 
    • Core CPI under 6.5% - Market will move up. If it is under 6.2%, the market will roar up and test 380 in a short amount of time, possibly next week. 
  • That's it for this preview. Big day ahead. 

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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 year ago
by: samosa

Wednesday, October 12th Market Preview

What Happened on Tuesday?

  • SPY Day Range: 355.71 - 363.03 (New 52 week Low set)
  • Again I was anticipating a calm day and it was a wild one with more random international news to move the markets. 
  • Bank of England said that they are removing their floor on their bonds this Friday and that pension funds need to figure it out. This caused a violent sell off in the markets that set a new 52 week low. 
  • Tuesday marked the second day in a row and the 3rd time we closed below the June lows.

What Am I Looking Out For This Week?

  • PPI is set to come out tomorrow and will it give any hint as to what the CPI may bring? This report normally comes out after the CPI so it hasn't had a big market reaction to it. But now it comes before so we shall see. 
  • With the CPI data coming up on Thursday, we got a chance for the peak inflation theory to re-enter the discussion if that report comes in cooler. Not likely, but something to monitor. 
  • Can SPY defend the June lows and stay above it on the week? This is the big technical item on watch for the week. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I have no core position and I am back to all cash. I scalped calls and puts today for a nice profit. I was only willing to play calls, but then the BoE news came in and gave me a nice put opportunity at the end of the day. 
  • Scalps - I am getting back into scalp trading as well when the setups merit it. This means waiting until 10:30am and let my intraday Fibs have some data to work with. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?

  • We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week. Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Wednesday: PPI at 8:30am (This one is interesting as it is before CPI this time)
  • Wednesday: LaGarde Speech at 9:30am (This has DXY implications)
  • Wednesday: FOMC Minutes at 2:00pm. I am not expecting much from this since a lot of Fed speakers have echoed what these minutes should say. 
  • Thursday: CPI at 8:30am. This is the main event. Strangle play opportunity here. 
  • Friday: Retail Sales Data at 8:30am
  • Friday: UoM Consumer Sentiment at 10am

Earnings this Week:

  • Thursday Premarket -  Delta (DAL), TSM and Blackrock (BLK)
  • Friday Premarket - JPM, MS, C, WFC, 
  • Next Major Tech earnings is 10/18 with TSLA. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily are just slightly above oversold. One gap down and we will be in severely oversold conditions on all the charts. I would prefer all these to be neutral heading into Thursday.   
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. Bulls could not hold this line, so we indeed dropped to 358 very quickly. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500.
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 358. The bulls need to keep this level.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

  • PPI's data is not big enough to set a trend imo, so I will probably just play it light with some small scalps until about 3pm, where I will enter my strangle play. 
  • FOMC Minutes are a nothing event to me, so I am not expecting any big move after they are released. 
  • If the market is near 52 week lows at 3pm, I will not play a strangle, and just play the reaction to the data on Thursday. 
  • If the market can close green and/or the charts are not in oversold territory on the 30 min and up charts, then I will enter the strangle. 
  • The Strangle play is buying calls and puts $2 OTM for SPY for Friday. The goal of this play is one to end at 0 and the other to be up at +100% to make up for the losses. I only play these leading up to economic data events where I believe we can get a violent move in a direction. There are only about 3 of these events a month. 
  • If the strangle I enter at 3pm is nice and profitable by the close, I will close it out and re-enter another one that is more balanced. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 350 > 353 > 355 > 358 > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 > 373
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SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 year ago
by: samosa

Tuesday, October 11th Market Preview

What Happened on Monday?

  • SPY Day Range: 357.67 - 364.21
  • I expected a calm day but we had a lot of random news come in to make it an exciting day. 
  • US Airports getting cyberattacks, Russia mentioning they are open for diplomatic resolutions with Ukraine, Railroad Union rejecting the latest deal... It was a wild day for the news. 
  • Monday marked the second time we closed below the June lows.
  • But even with all the negative news, SPY kept bouncing back over 360. Something to keep an eye on. Market is looking for any spark to hold this level. 

What Am I Looking Out For This Week?

  • We have a lot of important economic data this week. PPI, FOMC Minutes, CPI (!), Retail Sales and the start of earnings season with big banks reporting. This is a busy busy week. 
  • With the CPI data coming up on Thursday, we got a chance for the peak inflation theory to re-enter the discussion if that report comes in cooler. Not likely, but something to monitor. 
  • Can SPY defend the June lows and stay above it on the week? This is the big technical item on watch for the week. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • CORE Position: SPX 3600p for 11/18 -I ended up closing this out at the close when we had that nice move down in the last 5 mins. I do expect some sort of small bounce before CPI, so I will just hold off until that event. 
  • Scalps - I am getting back into scalp trading as well when the setups merit it. This means waiting until 10:30am and let my intraday Fibs have some data to work with. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?

  • We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week. Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Tuesday: Nothing major
  • Wednesday: PPI at 8:30am (This one is interesting as it is before CPI this time)
  • Wednesday: LaGarde Speech at 9:30am (This has DXY implications)
  • Wednesday: FOMC Minutes at 2:00pm. I am not expecting much from this since a lot of Fed speakers have echoed what these minutes should say. 
  • Thursday: CPI at 8:30am. This is the main event. Strangle play opportunity here. 
  • Friday: Retail Sales Data at 8:30am
  • Friday: UoM Consumer Sentiment at 10am

Earnings this Week:

  • Thursday Premarket -  Delta (DAL), TSM and Blackrock (BLK)
  • Friday Premarket - JPM, MS, C, WFC, 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily are just slightly oversold. One gap down and we will be in severely oversold conditions on all the charts. I would prefer all these to be neutral heading into Thursday.   
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. Bulls are clinging to this line. They have to hold onto this level otherwise it drop very quickly to 358. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500.
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 358. The bulls need to keep this level.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:

  • The Asian market is showing some major weakness on Monday night and that is spilling over into the US Futures session. I will be interested if this negative slide holds at the open.
  • There is not really anything worth playing with a large position with us just a few days away from the major economic reports. So I think you just stick to small scalps with the bias to short any pop. 
  • I will be waiting until 10:30am and see if I can set up some intraday Fibs and try and identify any scalps. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 353 > 355 > 358 > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 > 373
Read More
2
1
SPY - SPDR S&P 500 1 year ago
by: samosa

Monday, October 10th Market Preview

What Am I Looking Out For This Week?

  • We have a lot of important economic data this week. PPI, FOMC Minutes, CPI (!), Retail Sales and the start of earnings season with big banks reporting. This is a busy busy week. 
  • With the CPI data coming up on Thursday, we got a chance for the peak inflation theory to re-enter the discussion if that report comes in cooler. Not likely, but something to monitor. 
  • Can SPY defend the June lows and stay above it on the week? This is the big technical item on watch for the week. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • CORE Position: SPX 3600p for 11/18 -I am still holding this position and my patience was rewarded on Friday. I am looking for us to break new lows on Monday or Tuesday, and will be fully out of the position before Wednesday or Thursday.  
  • Scalps - I am getting back into scalp trading as well when the setups merit it. This means waiting until 10:30am and let my intraday Fibs have some data to work with. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?

  • We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week. Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Monday: Brainard speech at 1:30pm
  • Tuesday: Nothing major
  • Wednesday: PPI at 8:30am (This one is interesting as it is before CPI this time)
  • Wednesday: LaGarde Speech at 9:30am (This has DXY implications)
  • Wednesday: FOMC Minutes at 2:00pm. I am not expecting much from this since a lot of Fed speakers have echoed what these minutes should say. 
  • Thursday: CPI at 8:30am. This is the main event. Strangle play opportunity here. 
  • Friday: Retail Sales Data at 8:30am
  • Friday: UoM Consumer Sentiment at 10am

Earnings this Week:

  • Thursday Premarket -  Delta (DAL), TSM and Blackrock (BLK)
  • Friday Premarket - JPM, MS, C, WFC, 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are pretty much oversold. The 4 hour and Daily are neutral.  
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. Bulls are clinging to this line. They have to hold onto this level otherwise it drop very quickly to 358. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500.
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 358. The bulls need to keep this level.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

  • We don't much on the calendar on Monday so we could see a choppy day. The donwtrend from Friday could continue into Monday which could just see a slow bled day. Consolidation though seems to be what we will see. 
  • If for some reason we see a flush and get oversold conditions on the 4 hour chart, I will close out my November puts and wait to re-enter a core position after the CPI report. 
  • I will be waiting until 10:30am and see if I can set up some intraday Fibs and try and identify any scalps. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 353 > 355 > 358 > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 > 373
Read More
0
0
StonksChat 1 year ago
by: samosa

Thursday, October 6th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • SPY range on Wednesday: 371 to 379.
  • I had pegged Wednesday as a non-event day with little economic data that would impact the markets too much. I was wrong...
  • ADP reports came in hot, with wage rates coming in very hot. OPEC+ agreed to cut production by 2 million barrels a day. And ISM Non-Production came in above expectations. This led to the market to pullback under the 373 support. All was looking good for bears until a big options trade came through for SPX 4500 for Jan 2023. 
  • That trade seemed to spark a rally and pushed SPY all the way back to green for the day. It was another gut wrenching punch for the bears.


What Am I Looking Out For This Week?

  • Fed Pivot Theory is back and better than ever. I hate every part of this, but the markets are rallying on this optimism so we need to take it serious. The next landmine to stop the optimism is the Jobs data on Friday. 
  • Jobs data this week (Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday) will add gas to the fire for the market as all signs are pointing to a hot jobs number with consumer sentiment still strong. Bears need Jobs to stay hot so the Fed can stay comfortable being aggressive. Bulls need a slowing jobs number to put doubts in the Fed's aggressive approach. 
  • The DXY and TNX is on watch. If these two breakdown then the markets will keep rallying. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • CORE Position: SPX 3600p for 11/18 - I added to this position when SPY was at 378 and will keep building this position if we keep climbing. 
  • Strangle Play - I will do a strangle for SPX at 3pm today in anticipation of Friday's big jobs release in premarket. I will grab both sides slightly out of the money for Friday's expiration date. 
  • Scalps - I am getting back into scalp trading as well when the setups merit it. This means waiting until 10:30am and let my intraday Fibs have some data to work with. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?


SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour is almost overbought. The 4 hour and Daily are neutral.  
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. Bulls got this level back today and it was a very big win for them. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500.
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 358. The bulls need to keep this level.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:

  • We don't much on the calendar today so we could see a choppy day. I am looking for derisking to happen in the second half of the day. 
  • I will be waiting until 10:30am and see if I can set up some intraday Fibs and try and identify any scalps 
  • At 3pm I will enter a strangle for Friday's job data. Depending on the derisking at the end of the day, I may get an opportunity to close this out profitably before the bell and then re-enter at the close. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 > 373 > 376 > 380 > 383 > 386
Read More
1
0
StonksChat 1 year ago
by: samosa

Wednesday, October 5th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • SPY range. on Tuesday: 372 to 378.
  • Another day and another green pump. We gapped up overnight and ran right to 377 after the JOLTS data and just stuck there for most of the day.
  • JOLTS data came in under expectations which means jobs could be starting to slowing. This was a bullish reading and it will be interesting to see if the Friday's jobs data aligns with this report.  
  • Elon has officially purchased Twitter and that sent Tesla's stock down. I anticipate this selling to continue into the week as the fear now arises that Elon's time will now be split up against 3 major companies. 


What Am I Looking Out For This Week?

  • Fed Pivot Theory is back and better than ever. I hate every part of this, but the markets are rallying on this optimism so we need to take it serious. The next landmine to stop the optimism is the Jobs data on Friday. 
  • Oil is in the news again as OPEC+ is looking to limit the amount of oil in the upcoming Wednesday meeting.
  • Jobs data this week (Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday) will add gas to the fire for the market as all signs are pointing to a hot jobs number with consumer sentiment still strong. Bears need Jobs to stay hot so the Fed can stay comfortable being aggressive. Bulls need a slowing jobs number to put doubts in the Fed's aggressive approach. 
  • Ukraine Russia "peace" talks and if they progress to an actual meeting.

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?


Current Positions and Plays:

  • I took a nasty L on my Halloween puts and rolled them into November puts with a better strike price. I will look to build this position if we keep climbing. I am also considering doing small scalps to play the trend. My goal though is to keep building a nice put position for when the Fed Pivot theory gets shot by wither data or by JPow. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min chart is overbought. The 1 hour is almost overbought. The 4 hour and Daily are neutral.  
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. Bulls got this level back today and it was a very big win for them. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500.
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 358. The bulls need to keep this level. 
  • SPY - The Weekly chart looks like more pain is going to come. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

  • We don't much on the calendar tomorrow so we could see a choppy day. I am looking for put entries on a 380 break to add to my core position. 
  • I will be waiting until 10:30am and see if I can set up some intraday Fibs and try and identify any scalps 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 > 373 > 376 > 380 > 383 > 386
Read More
1
1
StonksChat 1 year ago
by: samosa

Tuesday, October 4th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • SPY range. on Monday: 359 to 368.
  • They set the bear trap near the open when the market popped and dropped in the first 10 mins. I expected some choppy waters today, but then the WSJ published an article that said the UN has requested the Fed to back off on interest rate hikes. There was no stopping SPY after this especially with its oversold conditions. 
  • It was a low volume trend day with no major economic data to stop a relief rally.


What Am I Looking Out For This Week?

  • Fed Pivot Theory is back and better than ever. I hate every part of this, but the markets are rallying on this optimism so we need to take it serious. The Fed will keep coming out and letting the market know that they are not pausing anytime soon, but the market will ignore them. I am now watching whether the market wants to take economic data seriously and we get our first test of that tomorrow with the JOLTS data. 
  • TSLA reported delivery numbers and they were all time highs for the company, but below expectations. How will the market react?
    • The market reacted by selling TSLA off. This is one we want to watch tomorrow to see if it can recover. 
  • Oil is in the news again as OPEC+ is looking to limit the amount of oil in the upcoming Wednesday meeting.
  • Jobs data this week (Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday) will add gas to the fire for the market as all signs are pointing to a hot jobs number with consumer sentiment still strong. Bears need Jobs to stay hot so the Fed can stay comfortable being aggressive. Bulls need a slowing jobs number to put doubts in the Fed's aggressive approach. 
  • Ukraine Russia "peace" talks and if they progress to an actual meeting.
  • Fear and Panic are in the markets now. Will Capitulation start to happen which will completely throw technicals out the window for a quick moment. 
    • This seems to be on ice for a moment. This will need a catalyst for fear to re-enter the market and it come in the form of hot Jobs data.  

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?

  • We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week. Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Jobs Data is the key thing to watch this week. Job numbers need to come in bad for bulls or strong for bears. 
  • Tuesday - 3 Fed Speakers at 9am including Williams who is one of the important ones to listen to according Maverick. 
  • Tuesday - JOLTS Jobs opening at 10am. This is an important report. 
  • Tuesday - LaGarde Speech which could have DXY implications at 11am. 
  • Wednesday - ADP Employment Change at 8:15am. This is the private sector's report on the jobs changes. Not as big as Friday's report. 
  • Friday - Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30am. This is the biggest data release of the week. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I am holding my big puts position and got destroyed today on the relief rally. I do have until Halloween for these puts, but if the JOLTS data tomorrow is bullish, then I will need to make a decision to take the L and sit back and look to reset for a strangle play for Friday's Nonfarm payrolls. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min chart is getting close to overbought. The 1 hour and 4 hour are neutral and the Daily is slightly above oversold.  
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. Bulls got this level back today and it was a very big win for them. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 349 is the .500. 318.24 is the .618
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 358. The bulls need to keep this level. 
  • SPY - The Weekly chart looks like more pain is going to come. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1 - The JOLTS data comes out at 10am and you just need to play the reaction for a scalp. This data is not big enough to set a weekly trend but it has enough weight to make a day trend. 
  • Scenario 2 - If the JOLTS data is a nothing event, then you are looking at whether SPY can test 370.50 again and fill the gap from last Thursday. This would be an objective spot to enter a short position. Or you can be more conservative and wait for a 373 test. 
  • Scenario 3 - Take the week off until Thursday near the close and enter a nice size strangle play for Friday's jobs data. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 344 > 347 > 350 > 355 > 356 (200 SMA) > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 > 373 > 376

Read More
1
0
StonksChat 1 year ago
by: samosa

Tuesday, October 4th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • SPY range. on Monday: 359 to 368.
  • They set the bear trap near the open when the market popped and dropped in the first 10 mins. I expected some choppy waters today, but then the WSJ published an article that said the UN has requested the Fed to back off on interest rate hikes. There was no stopping SPY after this especially with its oversold conditions. 
  • It was a low volume trend day with no major economic data to stop a relief rally.


What Am I Looking Out For This Week?

  • Fed Pivot Theory is back and better than ever. I hate every part of this, but the markets are rallying on this optimism so we need to take it serious. The Fed will keep coming out and letting the market know that they are not pausing anytime soon, but the market will ignore them. I am now watching whether the market wants to take economic data seriously and we get our first test of that tomorrow with the JOLTS data. 
  • TSLA reported delivery numbers and they were all time highs for the company, but below expectations. How will the market react?
    • The market reacted by selling TSLA off. This is one we want to watch tomorrow to see if it can recover. 
  • Oil is in the news again as OPEC+ is looking to limit the amount of oil in the upcoming Wednesday meeting.
  • Jobs data this week (Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday) will add gas to the fire for the market as all signs are pointing to a hot jobs number with consumer sentiment still strong. Bears need Jobs to stay hot so the Fed can stay comfortable being aggressive. Bulls need a slowing jobs number to put doubts in the Fed's aggressive approach. 
  • Ukraine Russia "peace" talks and if they progress to an actual meeting.
  • Fear and Panic are in the markets now. Will Capitulation start to happen which will completely throw technicals out the window for a quick moment. 
    • This seems to be on ice for a moment. This will need a catalyst for fear to re-enter the market and it come in the form of hot Jobs data.  

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?

  • We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week. Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Jobs Data is the key thing to watch this week. Job numbers need to come in bad for bulls or strong for bears. 
  • Tuesday - 3 Fed Speakers at 9am including Williams who is one of the important ones to listen to according Maverick. 
  • Tuesday - JOLTS Jobs opening at 10am. This is an important report. 
  • Tuesday - LaGarde Speech which could have DXY implications at 11am. 
  • Wednesday - ADP Employment Change at 8:15am. This is the private sector's report on the jobs changes. Not as big as Friday's report. 
  • Friday - Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30am. This is the biggest data release of the week. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I am holding my big puts position and got destroyed today on the relief rally. I do have until Halloween for these puts, but if the JOLTS data tomorrow is bullish, then I will need to make a decision to take the L and sit back and look to reset for a strangle play for Friday's Nonfarm payrolls. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min chart is getting close to overbought. The 1 hour and 4 hour are neutral and the Daily is slightly above oversold.  
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. Bulls got this level back today and it was a very big win for them. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 349 is the .500. 318.24 is the .618
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 358. The bulls need to keep this level. 
  • SPY - The Weekly chart looks like more pain is going to come. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1 - The JOLTS data comes out at 10am and you just need to play the reaction for a scalp. This data is not big enough to set a weekly trend but it has enough weight to make a day trend. 
  • Scenario 2 - If the JOLTS data is a nothing event, then you are looking at whether SPY can test 370.50 again and fill the gap from last Thursday. This would be an objective spot to enter a short position. Or you can be more conservative and wait for a 373 test. 
  • Scenario 3 - Take the week off until Thursday near the close and enter a nice size strangle play for Friday's jobs data. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 344 > 347 > 350 > 355 > 356 (200 SMA) > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 > 373 > 376

Read More
0
0
StonksChat 1 year ago
by: samosa

Monday, October 3rd Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • SPY range: 366 to 357.
  • I had mentioned that last week was the most entertaining chop fest of all time. It just feels like SPY is on the verge of collapse and then it comes back up for a little breather. But it finally gave up right at the close on Friday. 
  • PCE Core Data came in above expectations at 4.9% vs an expected 4.7%. 
  • Ukraine and Russia threw a wild card with possible peace talks. Market moved up on that news, but the Fed fears ended up being too much to ignore and a big move got us under the June lows and the 200 Weekly SMA. 


What Am I Looking Out For This Week?

  • TSLA reported delivery numbers and they were all time highs for the company, but below expectations. How will the market react?
  • Oil is in the news again as OPEC+ is looking to limit the amount of oil in the upcoming Wednesday meeting. Can Oil hold the SPY up even if Tech giants TSLA and AAPL start to crack?
  • Jobs data this week (Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday) will add gas to the fire for the market as all signs are pointing to a hot jobs number with consumer sentiment still strong. Bears need Jobs to stay hot so the Fed can stay comfortable being aggressive. Bulls need a slowing jobs number to put doubts in the Fed's aggressive approach. 
  • Ukraine Russia "peace" talks and if they progress to an actual meeting.
  • Fear and Panic are in the markets now. Will Capitulation start to happen which will completely throw technicals out the window for a quick moment. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?

  • We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week. Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Jobs Data is the key thing to watch this week. Job numbers need to come in bad for bulls or strong for bears. 
  • Monday - PMI Data at 9:45am
  • Tuesday - 3 Fed Speakers at 9am including Williams who is one of the important ones to listen to according Maverick. 
  • Tuesday - JOLTS Jobs opening at 10am. This is an important report. 
  • Tuesday - LaGarde Speech which could have DXY implications at 11am. 
  • Wednesday - ADP Employment Change at 8:15am. This is the private sector's report on the jobs changes. Not as big as Friday's report. 
  • Friday - Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30am. This is the biggest data release of the week. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I sold my bigger puts position before the 358 break when we got near 359 for a nice profit. I then re-entered the position when we broke 358 and I am now holding a large position in SPX puts for 10/31. Bears took control on Friday and it looks like they are not going to give it up. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are just above oversold. The 4 hour chart and Daily are now in oversold territory. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. We finally closed below this number and in a convincing fashion. Bulls need this level to get recaptured for any hope. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 349 is the .500. 318.24 is the .618
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 358. If the bulls can't reclaim this level, then it really is lights out to the pre Covid highs. 
  • SPY - The Weekly chart looks like more pain is going to come. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

  • I have my bearish position now and I will now only look for a reason to sell it. Whether that comes in a form of a Fed Pivot (not likely) or if buyers start regaining the key levels of the June lows again. 
  • For put entries, you need to look at the test of the 358 line if it comes. If you are chasing this move down, I would wait and play a strangle on the Tuesday Jobs Data and the Friday Jobs Data. Those will either offer the bulls some hope, or the bears more confidence that the Fed will make the market go lower. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 344 > 347 > 350 > 355 > 356 (200 SMA) > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370
Read More
0
0
StonksChat 1 year ago
by: samosa

Friday, September 30th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • SPY range: 359.70 to 367.11.
  • This week has been the most entertaining chop fest of all time. It just feels like SPY is on the verge of collapse and then it comes back up for a little breather. But how much more can it take?
  • We had a lot of data in the morning with most of it coming in at expectations including the GDP reading. So all eyes were on Bullard who spoke at 9:30am. 
  • Bullard gave us a lot of information and he made it very clear that the Fed is not looking to pivot until jobs cool and inflation cools. That sparked the sell off as it was yet another reminder that the Fed Pivot is off in the distance. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

  • We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week. Check the full calendar here: stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Friday - EU Inflation data at 5:00am EST - This will impact the DXY. 
  • Friday - PCE Inflation Data at 8:30am EST - All eyes on the Core reading here. 
  • Friday - Personal Income Data at 8:30am EST
  • Friday - Fed Speakers all morning. There is like 4 of them from 8:30am to 9am.
  • Friday - UoM Consumer Sentiment at 10am. Strong consumer here is another bearish indicator. 
  • Friday is also the day Russia is looking at annexing parts of Ukraine. 
  • Friday - End of the week, month and quarter. We will have a lot of rebalancing and moving going on. 
  • Friday - Tesla's AI Day kicks off at 8pm EST.

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I sold my put near the open since the DXY seemed to be a little weaker. It was a nice profit, and then I immediately regretted it after hearing Bullard's comments. I started to build a put position all day and ended up with a rather large core position for 10/31. I kept looking at the schedule Friday and thought we have a recipe for a major move down, so I am going for it. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are neutral. The 4 hour chart and Daily are now just slightly out of oversold territory. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. We still have not closed below this line. Just made it over it today. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382.  349 is the .500.
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 358.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

  • All eyes are on the economic data in the morning, specifically PCE data. The scenarios are pretty cut and dry here to me. 
  • Scenario 1: PCE Core comes in at expectations - I think this defaults to the current trend which is bearish. We should see the fade the rip strategy keep playing out and slowly bleed out. 
    • If this results happen you then got to look at the UoM Consumer Confidence data point at 10am EST for a trend. Strong consumer = bearish, weak consumer = bullish. 
  • Scenario 2: PCE Core comes in hot - We are breaking under 360 and setting new lows with a possible 200 Weekly SMA break. 
  • Scenario 3: PCE Core comes in cool (below 4.4%) - This could spark a rally up that fills the gap at 373.50. This would also finally give the bulls some data to lean on that can be big enough to have a sustainable rally.  
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 356 (200 SMA) > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 >373 > 375 > 380
Read More
0
0
StonksChat 1 year ago
by: samosa

Thursday, September 29th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • SPY range: 363 to 372.
  • What a swing of emotions yesterday. The AAPL news that came out late on Tuesday was going to push the market way down on Wednesday and in premarket we hit 359.50. And then...
  • The Bank of England announced they are no longer doing QT and actually pivoting to QE. This was the spark the market needed and we moved higher on the insane theory that JPow could follow B0E's lead and pivot. 
  • The relief rally worked out all the oversold conditions on the charts and it stopped short of filling the gap of 373.50. But at least for a day, the bulls can see a green candle on the daily chart again. 
  • All eyes are still on AAPL and whether it can hold on to the all important 150 level. A weekly close below this level, and we could see a downward move come fast and hard.

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?


Current Positions and Plays:

  • I scalped calls all day for a nice profit and then at 370, I bought a SPX put for 10/31. I am going to keep building this position on any pop up we get. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are amazingly getting a little overbought. The 4 hour chart and Daily are now just out of oversold territory. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. This looks like where we are headed. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:

  • I do think that Thursday has the ingredients for a slow green trend day. With PCE on Friday, I would anticipate not many folks will be eager to enter anything. So you could see a repeat of today, where we just slowly grind higher by the algos. 
  • All eyes staying on the DXY and TNX. If they start to crack the market will move up. But if they keep ticking up, the market will just keep slowly bleeding. 
  • (Original from Monday's preview) I still think we are in for a few weeks of chop. I am seeing a 10 to 15 point range with us probably setting new lows at 355 and then just staying range bound up to 373.
  • Scenario 1: SPY tests or gaps below 360. This would be a major win for the bears. To get right back to June lows after a nice 10 point rally by the bulls would be a major sign of weakness in the market. This could start the capitulation process. I would most likely grab another put down here as confirmation that we are indeed headed much lower. 
  • Scenario 2: SPY bounces and retests 373. This will continue work out some technicals and presents a nice fade the rip scenario and will create a good opportunity to enter a put. I will keep adding puts on the way up for farther out until there is a piece of economic data that tells me otherwise. 
  • Scenario 3: We consolidate between 363 and 370. This is just a sit back and wait for a level test to make a decision. This could continue to work out some technicals which could make entering puts attractive again. 
  • The next major data release that can bring Bulls hope is the PCE data on Friday. I am not seeing anything until then for bulls to hang their hat on. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 356 (200 SMA) > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 >373 > 375 > 380
Read More
0
0
StonksChat 1 year ago
by: samosa

Wednesday, September 28th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • SPY range: 360 to 370.
  • Another wild day that saw us gapping up in the morning and ran right into 370 again. Then the 10am Consumer Data came out and we saw the DXY and TNX spike due to the strong consumer data. This was all I needed to see to enter puts. 
  • The market hit a new SPY YTD low and just kind of lingered around it for hours. No big bounce and also no big breakdown. Interesting to say the least.
  • All eyes are still on AAPL and whether it can hold on to the all important 150 level. A weekly close below this level, and we could see a downward move come fast and hard.

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?


Current Positions and Plays:

  • I scalped a put when the consumer data was released. I am now all cash heading into tomorrow. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min is neutral. The 1 hour is slightly above an oversold reading. The 4 hour chart and Daily are now just in oversold territory. 
  • SPY Technicals - Short term is ok, long term is a little oversold. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. This looks like where we are headed. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

  • All eyes staying on the DXY and TNX. If they start to crack the market will move up. But if they keep ticking up, the market will just keep slowly bleeding. 
  • I still think we are in for a few weeks of chop. I am seeing a 10 to 15 point range with us probably setting new lows at 355 and then just staying range bound up to 373. The Apple news Tuesday night could be the catalyst to get us to 355. 
  • Scenario 1: SPY tests or gaps below 360. This will be all because of AAPL so I will be monitoring it to see if it can recover that all important 150 level. I may have to chase puts if it fails to. 
  • Scenario 2: SPY bounces and retests 370. This will work out some technicals and presents a nice fade the rip scenario and will create a good opportunity to enter a put.
  • Scenario 3: We consolidate between 360 and 368. This is just a sit back and wait for a level test to make a decision. This could work out some technicals which could make entering puts attractive again. 
  • The next major data release that can bring Bulls hope is the PCE data on Friday. I am not seeing anything until then for bulls to hang their hat on. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 356 (200 SMA) > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 >373 > 375 > 380
Read More
0
0
StonksChat 1 year ago
by: samosa

Tuesday, September 27th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • SPY range: 363 to 370.
  • It was a pretty wild day considering all the macro events swirling with the DXY, Bank of England and the 10 Year yield all coming into focus. 
  • The DXY and TNX (10 year yield) exploded higher once the Bank of England announced that they are not looking to do any rate hikes until the November 23rd meeting. The consensus throughout in the market was that they would do something to help the GBP from falling more vs the Dollar, but they decided that no change was needed right now. This is pretty shocking to me.
  • With that event, I am also pretty surprised that the SPY did not make a new YTD low. This is telling me that if the DXY and TNX cool a little, look out for a nice pop in the markets. 
  • All eyes are on AAPL and whether it can hold on to the all important 150 level. A weekly close below this level, and we could see a downward move come fast and hard.

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?


Current Positions and Plays:

  • I sold my small put swing right at the open for a profit. I then re-entered a SPX put when the BoE announced they are not doing any update on their monetary policy. I sold this for a nice gain and I am back to all cash now waiting on a bounce. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min is neutral. The 1 hour is slightly above an oversold reading. The 4 hour chart and Daily are now just in oversold territory. 
  • SPY Technicals - Short term is ok, long term is a little oversold. I expect a move up or consolidation in the next few days. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. This looks like where we are headed. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:

  • All eyes are on the DXY and TNX. If they start to crack the market will move up. But if they keep ticking up, the market will just keep slowly bleeding. 
  • I still think we are in for a few weeks of chop. I am seeing a 10 to 15 point range with us probably setting new lows at 355 and then just staying range bound up to 373.
  • Scenario 1: SPY tests or gaps below 362. This should get a bullish reaction back up to 370 just based on the oversold conditions. But the DXY and TNX have to cool a little for the bounce to happen.  
  • Scenario 2: SPY bounces and retests 373. This will work out some technicals and presents a nice fade the rip scenario and will create a good opportunity to enter a put.
  • Scenario 3: We consolidate between 365 and 370. This is just a sit back and wait for a level test to make a decision. This could work out some technicals which could make entering puts attractive again. 
  • The next major data release that can bring Bulls hope is the PCE data on Friday. I am not seeing anything until then for bulls to hang their hat on. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 356 (200 SMA) > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 >373 > 375 > 380
Read More
0
0
StonksChat 1 year ago
by: samosa

Monday, September 26th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • Friday was a nasty day for the bulls. The range was 363 to 370 and we had a nice short covering rally in the close. 
  • All eyes are on AAPL and whether it can hold on to the all important 150 level. A weekly close below this level, and we could see a downward move come fast and hard.

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?


Current Positions and Plays:

  • I sold all of my puts for a major win on Friday. I went ahead and grabbed a starter put at the close on that short covering rally. I will most likely close it out at the open if it is green. If it goes red, then I will probably hold it until Thursday before PCE data on Friday. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour are slightly above an oversold reading. The 4 hour chart and Daily are now just in oversold territory. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. This looks like where we are headed. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 
  • Keep an eye on the DXY and if it starts to crack or not. It is an inverse indicator for stocks.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

  • I think we are in for a few weeks of chop. I am seeing a 10 to 15 point range with us probably setting new lows at 355 and then just staying range bound up to 370.
  • Scenario 1: SPY tests or gaps below 362. This should get a bullish reaction back up to 370. 
  • Scenario 2: SPY bounces and retests 373. This is a fade the rip scenario and will create a good opportunity to enter a put.
  • Scenario 3: We consolidate between 365 and 370. This is just a sit back and wait for a level test to make a decision. This could work out some technicals which could make entering puts attractive again. 
  • The next major data release that can bring Bulls hope is the PCE data on Friday. I am not seeing anything until then for bulls to hang their hat on. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 356 (200 SMA) > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 >373 > 375 > 380
Read More
1
0
Trader Brian Jones 1 year ago
by: samosa

The System - Educational Trading Strategy

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1
0
StonksChat 1 year ago
by: samosa

Friday, September 23rd Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • We had chop pretty much all day but did test 373.50 a few times and that seemed to hold as support. Towards the end of the day we got a nice bounce off of that level and ran all the way to 377 in a little over an hour. And then in the last 10 minutes we dropped all the way back down to 374. It was a very interesting close.
  • The price action to me though was very important, especially the last 10 mins of the day. We can confidently say that the move from 373.50 to 377 was a technical bounce on a support level. Well, how do you feel comfortable buying the next technical bounce when that one got evaporated in 10 mins. I think the market psychology enters the picture and people will not be very willing to buy the next technical bounce until the June lows are tested. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

  • Friday - PMI Data at 9:45am EST. 
  • Friday - JPow with another speech at 2:00pm EST. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I am still holding a healthy put position for 10/31. Until we break above 380 or below 373, I don't see the need to sell these puts. I had great entries on them and just need to stick to my thesis. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, and the daily is slightly above an oversold reading. The 4 hour chart is now just in oversold territory. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. This looks like where we are headed. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 
  • SPY should see a reaction near 373 and it will be interesting to see if the fundamental tailwinds just push us right through it to test the June lows of 362. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

  • Same scenarios as yesterday. I do believe the JPow event is a nothing event, but that doesn't mean the market thinks the same. So if we chop leading into his event, I may look to cover my puts and just get out of the way of his speech. Since it won't be a big deal, the market could rally as a relief that he didn't wreck the market. I am still debating this scenario and will know more once we get closer to that 2pm time. 
  • Scenario 1: SPY tests or gaps below 373. This could trigger a swift move to the June lows of 362. 
  • Scenario 2: SPY bounces and retests 380. This is a fade the rip scenario and will create a good opportunity to enter a put.
  • Scenario 3: We consolidate between 375 and 380. This is just a sit back and wait for a level test to make a decision. This could work out some technicals which could make entering puts attractive again. 
  • The next major data release that can bring Bulls hope is the PCE data next Friday. I am not seeing anything until then for bulls to hang their hat on. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 362 > 367 > 370 >373 > 375 > 380 > 383 > 387 > 390
Read More
0
0
StonksChat 1 year ago
by: samosa

Friday, September 23rd Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • We had chop pretty much all day but did test 373.50 a few times and that seemed to hold as support. Towards the end of the day we got a nice bounce off of that level and ran all the way to 377 in a little over an hour. And then in the last 10 minutes we dropped all the way back down to 374. It was a very interesting close.
  • The price action to me though was very important, especially the last 10 mins of the day. We can confidently say that the move from 373.50 to 377 was a technical bounce on a support level. Well, how do you feel comfortable buying the next technical bounce when that one got evaporated in 10 mins. I think the market psychology enters the picture and people will not be very willing to buy the next technical bounce until the June lows are tested. 
  • All eyes now are on AAPL. If it starts to breakdown under 150. It is lights out for the market. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

  • Friday - PMI Data at 9:45am EST. 
  • Friday - JPow with another speech at 2:00pm EST. This is a nothing event to me. But that could spark a small rally if fear is baked into it. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I am still holding a healthy put position for 10/31. Until we break above 380 or below 373, I don't see the need to sell these puts. I had great entries on them and just need to stick to my thesis. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, and the daily is slightly above an oversold reading. The 4 hour chart is now just in oversold territory. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. This looks like where we are headed. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 
  • SPY should see a reaction near 373 and it will be interesting to see if the fundamental tailwinds just push us right through it to test the June lows of 362. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

  • Same scenarios as yesterday. I do believe the JPow event is a nothing event, but that doesn't mean the market thinks the same. So if we chop leading into his event, I may look to close my puts and just get out of the way of his speech. Since it won't be a big deal, the market could rally as a relief that he didn't wreck the market. I am still debating this scenario and will know more once we get closer to that 2pm time. 
  • Scenario 1: SPY tests or gaps below 373. This could trigger a swift move to the June lows of 362. 
  • Scenario 2: SPY bounces and retests 380. This is a fade the rip scenario and will create a good opportunity to enter a put.
  • Scenario 3: We consolidate between 375 and 380. This is just a sit back and wait for a level test to make a decision. This could work out some technicals which could make entering puts attractive again. 
  • The next major data release that can bring Bulls hope is the PCE data next Friday. I am not seeing anything until then for bulls to hang their hat on. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 362 > 367 > 370 >373 > 375 > 380 > 383 > 387 > 390
Read More
0
1
StonksChat 1 year ago
by: samosa

Thursday, September 22nd Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • We had chop up until the big event and we dropped fast to 380 on the 2pm data and statement release. The economic projections came in bearish as the fed funds rate for EOY 2022 was raised to 4.4%. Then Powell started talking...
  • This was a very informative press conference. The questions were incredible. Powell was doing his best to use bullish buzzwords but saying bearish statements. The market kept trying to blast higher but could never break that 390 level. Then Powell dropped the bomb about wanting a housing correction. We cratered into the close to under 380.  
  • What a day, what a day, what day....

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

  • Thursday - UK Rate Hike Decision at 7:00am EST
  • Thursday - COST and FDX earnings afterhours. 
  • Friday - JPow with another speech at 2:00pm EST. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I entered a strangle and ended up making a nice profit on it, but the magic for me was scaling more into my swing puts for 10/31 on the pops during Powell's speech. I am still holding those puts. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and the daily is slightly above an oversold reading.
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. This looks like where we are headed. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 
  • SPY should see a reaction near 373 and it will be interesting to see if the fundamental tailwinds just push us right through it. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: SPY tests or gaps below 373. This could trigger a swift move to the June lows of 362. 
  • Scenario 2: SPY bounces and retests 380. This is a fade the rip scenario and will create a good opportunity to enter a put.
  • Scenario 3: We consolidate between 375 and 380. This is just a sit back and wait for a level test to make a decision. This could work out some technicals which could make entering puts attractive again.  
  • The next major data release that can bring Bulls hope is the PCE data next Friday. I am not seeing anything until then for bulls to hang their hat on. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 362 > 367 > 370 >373 > 375 > 380 > 383 > 387 > 390
Read More
1
0
StonksChat 1 year ago
by: samosa

Wednesday, September 21st FOMC and Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • We had a surprise 100 BPS hike from the Swedish Bank and that triggered a gap down. We set a new weekly low to 381 and closed near 384. All in all, this was a choppy few days leading into the main event on Wednesday. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

  • Wednesday - Existing Home Sales at 10am EST
  • Wednesday - FOMC statement and press conference starting at 2pm.  This is the major event of the week. 
  • Thursday - UK Rate Hike Decision at 7:00am EST
  • Thursday - COST and FDX earnings afterhours. 
  • Friday - JPow with another speech at 2:00pm EST. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I had a let go of my SPX calls for a nasty loss today and started building a 10/31 3800p position. I will be playing a 1DTE strangle for FOMC.

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and the daily are all neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 390 is the .236 and 407 is the .382.
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 and 418 is the .286. 
  • Technicals are setup for a nice move based on the FOMC data tomorrow. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

  • There is no play until the FOMC 2pm data release. The most important number in this release will be the 2022 economic projections for the Fed Funds Rate. You can get that data at federalreserve.gov/monetarypol.... This info gets released every other FOMC meeting and the last one was in June's meeting. 
  • Important Data: Current Fed Funds Rate: 2.5%. Projection for 2022 End of the Year for Fed Funds: 3.4% (released in June's meeting).
  • I will enter a strangle for Thursday's expiration that will be OTM by 2 points at 1:30pm before FOMC. I will let one die and one fly. This is not going to be as big as a play as I did for CPI. But I will put enough in to make me feel something. 
  • Scenario 1: We get a 75 BPS hike and the 2022 economic fed funds rate projection is over 4.25%. This is a bearish data release, so it will be up to JPow to turn the market around with his commentary. If he is able to make the market go up, this is a fade the rip opportunity on Thursday or Friday. 
  • Scenario 2: We get a 75 BPS hike and the 2022 economic fed funds rate projection is at 4% or less. This will make the market blast higher and will fuel that the Fed is going to pivot very soon. 
  • Scenario 3: We get a 100 BPS hike and the 2022 economic fed funds rate projection is over 4.25%. This is bearish and I will load up on puts as we are hitting new June lows. 
  • Scenario 4: We get a 100 BPS hike and the 2022 economic fed funds rate projection is under 4%. This would be a bullish event and will signal very dovish Fed ahead in November's meeting. 
  • FOMC will provide the direction of the market for the next week until the PCE data next Friday. Bulls will hope that Powell will be dovish and hint at slowing rate hikes down in his statement and press conference. Bears will hope for Powell to keep the same strong hawkish tone from Jackson Hole and lean on the fact that no new economic data has come out to allow Powell to start slowing rate hikes down.
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 380 > 383 > 387 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 404.40
Read More
1
1
StonksChat 1 year ago
by: samosa

Tuesday, September 20th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • Today was basically a repeat of Friday. We started gapping down to 382 area and ended chopping around for most of the day. Then we got a late push at the end of the day to close near 389. 
  • This was a bullish close and I anticipate we either test 390 at the open, or gap above it in the futures session before the open. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

  • Tuesday - Housing Data with permits and housing starts at 8:30am EST
  • Wednesday - EU rate hike decision at 3am
  • Wednesday - Existing Home Sales at 10am EST
  • Wednesday - FOMC statement and press conference starting at 2pm.  This is the major event of the week. 
  • Thursday - UK Rate Hike Decision at 7:00am EST
  • Thursday - COST and FDX earnings afterhours. 
  • Friday - JPow with another speech at 2:00pm EST. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I again sold my puts at the open for a nice profit and decided to enter a Call right at the close to play a bounce on Tuesday. I will be out of this position no matter what before Wednesday's FOMC meeting. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and the daily are all neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 390 is the .236 and 407 is the .382.
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 and 418 is the .286. 
  • The all important 390 level will be tested tomorrow. Will we get a rejection or a break? 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:

  • I expected chop all day on the indices today and was correct until the final hour of the day. SPY started gaining more momentum and ended up closing at the highs of the day over 388. So I grabbed a call to play the possible 390 break in futures. 
  • I anticipate that the bulls will try and push the market above 393 before FOMC. And I believe the bears will actually welcome this pump and get out of the way. 
  • FOMC will provide the direction of the market for the next few weeks. Bulls will hope that Powell will be dovish and hint at slowing rate hikes down in his statement and press conference. Bears will hope for Powell to keep the same strong hawkish tone from Jackson Hole and lean on the fact that no new economic data has come out to allow Powell to start slowing rate hikes down. It will be a fascinating day on Wednesday, so it is all about surviving until then. 
  • There is no scenario where I will play calls until FOMC.  Apparently, there was a scenario lol. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 380 > 383 > 387 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 404.40
Read More
0
1
StonksChat 1 year ago
by: samosa

Monday, September 19th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • Friday was a big option expiration day and we saw some spurts of volume show up randomly thoughout the day. 
  • The range was 382 to 386 with us closing near the highs of the day, however this did not feel like a bullish day as there was no test of the 390 level. 
  • All in all, Friday was an outlier type day due to the option expiration volatility and nothing really changed in my thesis. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

  • Monday - Nothing
  • Tuesday - Housing Data with permits and housing starts at 8:30am EST
  • Wednesday - EU rate hike decision at 3am
  • Wednesday - Existing Home Sales at 10am EST
  • Wednesday - FOMC statement and press conference starting at 2pm.  This is the major event of the week. 
  • Thursday - UK Rate Hike Decision at 7:00am EST
  • Thursday - COST and FDX earnings afterhours. 
  • Friday - JPow with another speech at 2:00pm EST. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I sold my long term SPX puts for a nice gain at the open and sat on my hands all day. I re-entered some puts at the close for October for 3800. I have a nice amount and will most likely sell before JPow. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour and 4 hour are slightly under an oversold reading. The Daily is neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 390 is the .236 and 407 is the .382.
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 and 418 is the .286. 
  • The 390 level has been broken and we did not test it at all on Friday. I anticipate we do get another test of the 390 level soon, but right now I am focused on whether the market will hold onto the next major level at 380. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

  • Monday and Tuesday really seem like a do nothing day. If you are holding puts and you have time on them, then you should be ok even if the market decides to bounce a little above 390. If 393 is recaptured, I may just take the loss on my puts and wait until after FOMC and fade any rip we get on that day. 
  • For traders like myself who only play the indices, the start of this week is going to be boring. The traders will want to concentrate on individual tickers to start the week and ignore the indices as they will most likely be chop until Wednesday. 
  • There is no scenario where I will play calls until FOMC.  
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 380 > 383 > 387 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 404.40
Read More
1
0
StonksChat 1 year ago
by: samosa

Friday, September 16th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • We had a lot of data this morning with strong retail sales and strong jobless claims leading the way. 
  • The SPY started pretty weak and ended up moving down near 390.20 early in the day. Buyers stepped in near lunch and ripped the market higher to 395 in a few candles. 
  • That bounce was the 390 reaction that everyone was waiting on. But unfortunately for bulls, the sellers stepped in and moved us right back down under the key 390 level towards the end of the day. 
  • Bulls were able to close the day above 390, but that seems to be gone now thanks to FDX's earnings report. Their guidance was brutal. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

  • Friday - Quad Witching Day (OpEx)
  • Friday - UoM Consumer Sentiment at 10am

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I sold my SPX puts at the end of the day on the 390 break and rolled them into longer dated SPX puts for November. I am anticipating that we just slowly head lower now. The November play is SPX 3730p for 11/30. I will look at grabbing some October puts for 3800 tomorrow if we bounce at all. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour charts are slightly under an oversold reading. The 4 hour and Daily are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 390 is the .236 and 407 is the .382.
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 and 418 is the .286. 
  • The 390 level has been broken here in the the futures session thanks to the FDX earnings report. This is now looking more likely to test the next big level at 380 before Wednesday's big FOMC meeting. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

  • We have quad witching on Friday which can bring a lot of volatility to the market. I am expecting random spurts and ultimately makes predicting a trend for the day really difficult. 
  • We should see a gap down at the start of the day based on how the futures have reacted to FDX. I would expect that dip to be temporary and a retest of 390 being possible based on some rebalancing, UoM report and/or options wizardy. Any rip up we get, I will be building an October puts position to hold for a few days next week before FOMC. No real levels here for me that matter, just looking for move upwards and reversal candles to signal entries. 
  • There is no scenario where I will play calls until FOMC.  
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 380 > 383 > 387 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 404.40
Read More
2
2
StonksChat 1 year ago
by: samosa

Thursday, September 15th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • It was a pretty choppy day with a lot of mixed opinions. PPI came in a little hotter than expected in the morning on the core side and that led to small dip near the open to just under 392. We began to rally at the close to close near 395. 
  • Bulls will lean on the 4 point move near the close as a signal that the all important 390 level will hold. 
  • Bears will lean on the fact that we were up less than 1% on a day after we lost 4%. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

  • Thursday - Retail Sales Data at 8:30am
  • Friday - Quad Witching Day (OpEx)

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I started grabbing SPX puts today for 2 weeks out. I am expecting a 390 test to happen by next Wednesday before FOMC. So I do not mind holding until then even if we start to move against the position. We either move down on fear of a 100 BPS hike possibility or we ignore that and then move down on the 75 BPS hike from a hawkish JPow due to Tuesday's CPI release. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour charts are slightly under an oversold reading. The 4 hour and Daily are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 390 is the .236 and 407 is the .382.
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 and 418 is the .286. 
  • It is all about the 390 level. If that breaks, we are headed down fast. If it holds, more buyers will step in. 
  • We got a hint from the Biden Admin that they are looking at buying oil at $80 a barrel to refill the strategic reserves. This is an indicator that oil prices could go up in the winter which is a high inflation tailwind. Also, when oil goes up, tech tends to come down. So keep this in mind with any long term thesis. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: Retail Sales Data comes in good/strong. This will be a bearish event as this signals to the Fed that the economy is still running too hot and they need to kill the demand to get inflation under control. This should move the market down to the 390 target. 
  • Scenario 2: Retail Sales Data comes in bad/weak. This could go either way. On one hand the market will see a weak consumer as a recessionary risk. On the other hand, a weaker consumer could be spun that the consumer is weakening so the Fed will not need to be as aggressive. This is a stretch, but it is possible. 
  • Scenario 3: Retail Data is a nothing event and the market just consolidates and chops heading into the wild Quad Witching Friday. 
  • I am holding my puts until the 390 break. If we hit 397 or 400 before then, I will grab more puts for a little longer out (mid October?) and close out my shorter term ones.  
  • There is no scenario where I will play calls until FOMC.  
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 383 > 387 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 404.40
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StonksChat 1 year ago
by: samosa

Wednesday, September 14th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • What a day... CPI came in above expectations on topline and core. That triggered a violent selloff that ultimately ended us going from 414 to 393 in one session. 
  • All bullish thesis' took a nasty hit today and the bears are back in control. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

  • Wednesday - PPI Data at 8:30
  • Thursday - Retail Sales Data at 8:30am
  • Friday - Quad Witching Day (OpEx)

Current Positions and Plays:

  • My SPX strangle worked beautifully and I exied near the open with a massive profit. I then grabbed puts for a few weeks out and rode it down all the way to the close. This traded ended up making me more than the strangle. Back to all cash. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min is now oversold and the 1 hour chart is slightly under an oversold reading. The 4 hour and Daily are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 390 is the .236 and 407 is the .382.
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 and 418 is the .286. 
  • We got a hint from the Biden Admin today that they are looking at buying oil at $80 a barrel to refill the strategic reserves. This is an indicator that oil prices could go up in the winter which is a high inflation tailwind. Also, when oil goes up, tech tends to come down. So keep this in mind with any long term thesis. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: SPY gets to 396 and starts to face some resistance. I will re-enter my puts as I have a 390 target that we will test before FOMC. 
  • Scenario 2: SPY reaches 390 and bounces. I will wait for a reversal signal and if one presents itself on the 15 or 30 min chart, then I will re-enter my puts and ride them until FOMC. 
  • Scenario 3: SPY rips higher to and tests 400. I will be waiting on a reversal signal to enter puts. 
  • There is no scenario where I will play calls until FOMC.  
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 383 > 387 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 404.40
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StonksChat 1 year ago
by: samosa

Tuesday, September 13th Market Preview

What Happened? - 


What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

  • Tuesday - CPI Data at 8:30am - This is the market moving event, 
  • Wednesday - PPI Data at 8:30
  • Thursday - Retail Sales Data at 8:30am

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I am holding a SPX strangle position heading into CPI with Tuesday's expiration date. Let it die or fly please. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour charts are slightly under an overbought reading. The 4 hour and Daily are neutral. This is primed for a nice move soon. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 407 is the .382 and 421 is the .500. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .286. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: CPI comes in low on the topline and low on the Core MoM. I will look to sell my calls near the open and let my puts go to zero. This would offer a greenlight to play calls up until the FOMC meeting next week, so I will look at re-entering calls for a few weeks out. 
  • Scenario 2: CPI comes in higher on the topline and higher on the Core MoM. I will look to sell my puts near the open and let my calls go to zero. This would offer a greenlight to scalp puts up until the FOMC meeting next week, so I will look at re-entering puts for a few weeks out. 
  • Scenario 3: CPI comes in low on the topline and higher on the Core MoM. I will look to sell my calls at the open and see if we fade the move up and hold my puts. This would be the worst case scenario for my strangle and my portfolio. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 400 > 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 415 > 418 > 421
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StonksChat 1 year ago
by: samosa

September 13th CPI Data Preview - Bullish and Bearish Cases

Heading into this week, I want to make sure I am prepared for the big CPI data release on Tuesday. The important thing I want to do is not so much make a prediction, but be weary of multiple outcomes and how the market reacts to those outcomes. 

Let's Look at the Last Few Months of CPI Data. The Topline Data means all of the items in the report on a year over year basis. The CPI Core data excludes food and energy:
  • July 2022 (Released August 2022) - Topline Number was 8.5%. CPI Core was 5.9%.
  • June 2022 (Released July 2022) - Topline Number was 9.1%. CPI Core was 5.9%.
  • May 2022 (Released June 2022) - Topline Number was 8.6%. CPI Core was 6.0%.
  • April 2022 (Released May 2022) - Topline Number was 8.3%. CPI Core was 6.2%.
  • March 2022 (Released April 2022) - Topline Number was 8.5%. CPI Core rate was 6.5%.
  • Feb 2022 (Released March 2022) - Topline Number was 7.9%. CPI Core rate was 6.4%.
  • Jan 2022 (Released Feb 2022) - Topline Number was 7.5%. CPI Core rate was 6.0%.

Below is how the market reacted to the data above:
  • The March 2022 data to April 2022 data saw the first decline on both the Topline and Core for the first time in 2022. This brought the hope that inflation could be peaking, and slowing down. 
  • The May 2022 data release (Released June 2022)  saw not only an increase from the previous month, but a Topline number higher than the March 2022 data. This caused the market to hit new lows. 
  • The June 2022 data release (Released July 2022) saw a hotter than expected read and the market gapped down 6 points and proceeded to recover most of that loss that day and started an upward trend (July 13th on the charts)
  • The July 2022 data release (Released August 2022) saw a cooler read on the top line and sticky core number. This was at the height of the Fed pivot theory and the inflation report backed up that the theory still had a possibility. This caused the market to maintain an uptrend that ultimately led the SPY to test 430 a week later. 

Now let's look ahead to the reporting coming out on Tuesday, September 13th. 
  • The estimate for the Topline is 8.1%. The Core is 6.1%.
  • So we have a lower estimate on the topline and the core is expected to go up. Tricky, tricky...

Here are the scenarios we are watching for:
  • Scenario 1 - CPI comes in above expectations, 8.5%+ on the topline and Core comes in at expectations over 6%
    • Bullish Argument - The argument can be made that inflation has peaked and we are still not setting new highs. So this "sticky" inflation does not make the Fed more aggressive, they just stick to the plan of continuing raising rates. 
    • Bearish Argument - This shows that the Fed's actions have not been able to control inflation and with Core going up, this confirms a current stagflaltion. This should lead to a move downward in the market and a retest of 400 at the time of the data release. 
  • Scenario 2 - CPI comes in above expectations on the topline, but flat or down on the Core:
    • Bullish Argument - Core not going up means we are actually seeing results in the Fed's actions and we should see a continued decrease in inflation as long as they continue to raise rates steadily. The rise in the topline could be contributed to international commodity supply issues, which are starting to cool. 
    • Bearish Argument - This is a weak argument to make, but the fact that headline is going up means that the nature of inflation is still out of control and unpredictable. Thus creating a difficult timeline for the Fed to really knowing when to stop being aggressive. 
  • Scenario 3 - CPI comes in flat at expectations on the Topline and Core:
    • Bullish Argument - Though the number is greater than the previous month on core, it was expected. Topline coming in at expectations actually sees a decrease from the previous month. This creates the same argument that inflation is sticking and has peaked on the topline. 
    • Bearish Argument - Same bearish argument from Scenario #2 as above with the reading being unreliable. 
  • Scenario 4 - CPI comes in below expectations on the Topline and Core:
    • Bullish Argument - Inflation is starting to peak and the Fed's actions are starting to work faster than the market's expectations. Buy calls and enjoy the week. 
    • Bearish Argument - None.

How I am looking to play the data release based on the scenarios:
  • Short Term Plays
    • Scenario 1, 2 or 3 - Stay on the sidelines and enter to play day to day levels.  Can't be married to one side on this result as the bearish argument is not as valid as the bullish one. 
    • Scenario 4 - Buy calls for a few weeks out as the SPY will retest 415-420 levels.

How will the Fed React?:
  • Scenario 1, 2 and 3 confirms a 75 BPS hike in September meeting.
  • Scenario 4 opens the door to do a 50 BPS hike in the September meeting and again a possibility to pause hikes after the October meeting to see if inflation can start trending downward. 

Thanks for reading through this data dump of thoughts by me. Should be an interesting week ahead. 
All the statements in this report are my own and not financial advice. 
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StonksChat 1 year ago
by: samosa

Friday, September 2nd Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • We gapped down in the morning a few points after the NVDA news in afterhours rocked the market. The selling came in fast and pushed SPY all the way to near 390. This was a critical support for the bulls and it held. 
  • The last moments of the day saw a nice short covering rally as folks appear to be de-risking ahead of Friday's big jobs data. 
  • All eyes now on the 8:30am EST jobs data release on Friday. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

  • Friday - Major Jobs Data at 8:30am - This is the market moving event,

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I swung my SPX calls at 396. Then averaged down at 393 and again under 391. The rally at the end of the day allowed me to turn a profit and enter a small put hedge for tomorrow so I can comfortably hold through the jobs data in the morning. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We soundly worked out all the oversold technicals on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. The 4 hour chart is just above oversold and daily is neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 407 is the .382 and 390 is the .236. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382.
  • SPY broke the 396 level. Looking for consolidation and a possible bounce here or at 393. 

Jobs Data Scenarios - Last Month: 528K, Expectations: 300K

  • Scenario 1:  We come in under the expected 300k number AND wages come in under or flat. The market will test 400 and could rip higher heading into the holiday weekend. Possible 405 test is in the cards. 
  • Scenario 2: We come in over the 300K expectations AND wages come in flat or higher. The market will trend down. I would look for a possible 390 test again. 
  • Scenario 3: Jobs come in over 400K. The market will flush under 390 and this will get ugly fast for the next few weeks. 
  • Scenario 4: Jobs Data comes in at or near expectations. I would expect the market to trend up heading into the holiday weekend and shorts continue to cover to enjoy the holiday weekend profitable. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: Jobs Data Scenario 1 happens. I will look to sell my calls on a 400 break and let my hedge puts go to zero.
  • Scenario 2: Jobs Data Scenario 2 happens. I will hold all my positions and close out my puts near 390. The gains from the puts would cancel the losses from the calls, and I would be able to escape the bad jobs data. 
  • Scenario 3: Jobs Data Scenario 3 happens. I will sell my calls fast and ride those puts. I would also look at entering puts for a few weeks out as well. 
  • Scenario 4: Jobs Data Scenario 4 happens. This would be the worse case scenario. I would most likely hold my calls and sell my puts since their expiration is on Friday. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching
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StonksChat 1 year ago
by: samosa

Thursday, September 1st Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • ADP data came in and the market tested over 400 in premarket. It opened up nice and bullish and then fell to pieces. A slow grind down all day say SPY break 396 and close just above 395. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

  • Thursday - No major events to me
  • Friday - Major Jobs Data at 8:30am - This was the market moving event, but with the current drop, I am not sure now. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I entered SPX calls at 401, sold them for a loss and grabbed some more SPX calls at 396. Not a good day for me. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are oversold on the 1 hour chart and 4 hour chart. The 30 min chart is just above oversold and daily is neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 407 is the .382 and 390 is the .236. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382.
  • SPY broke the 396 level. Looking for consolidation and a possible bounce here or at 393. 

Why Will the Market Go Up?

  • I think the only thing the bulls have in their favor here are the oversold technicals on the charts. You also need to keep an eye on Oil and the DXY. If those start to fall, then the bulls will get a shot in the arm from tech recovering. 

Why Will the Market Go Down?

  • The economy keeps reporting strong data numbers and that is making it very clear that the Fed is not done tightening this market. So with no Fed relief in sight, this is pretty much fade any rip that comes. We have seen it all week so far, and I am not sure there is any data this week that can prevent that. The DXY keeps surging on the international data and if it breaks that 109.20 resistance, the bears will be feasting more on the bulls.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: If we test under 393 tomorrow, I will look at grabbing a few more calls to average down on my position. This is a matter of when not if we bounce now. If that test happens in the morning, and we do get a nice bounce back near 400. I will close out and enter the strangle play for Friday's jobs data. I will look at doing a one or two point out of the money on both sides.  
  • Scenario 2: We test 393 and just keep falling to 390: I would have to again consider entering calls here with a few weeks out given the oversold conditions. 
  • Scenario 3: We chop all day but hold near 396. I think I would just hold my call position and take the punch in the face. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching
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0
Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Wednesday, August 31st Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • We had a bullish move in premarket where SPY actually tested 407. But by the open we were near 403 and hung out near there until the 10am data release. 
  • At 10am, you got strong Consumer Confidence Data and JOLTS openings came in hot and that sent us down below 400 and we hit our 396 target. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?


Current Positions and Plays:

  • I sold my SPX calls for a nasty loss, but switched over to puts on the 10am data release and got myself a nice green day. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are still oversold on the 1 hour chart. The 30 min chart and 4 hour is just above oversold and daily is neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 407 is the .382 and 390 is the .236. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382.
  • SPY broke the 400 level and we got bounce/ consolidation at that or 396.
  • If we consolidate near 396, I am thinking we could see a flush down IF the jobs data is hot on Friday. 
  • If we bounce off of 396, I could see a test to 410 if Jobs data is cool on Friday. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: I am looking at the ADP data and seeing if it can't give a hint at the jobs data on Friday. ADP jobs have been revised on how they calculate their data so how accurate is it and does the market care? I am not looking at trading at all, and will just study the chart to make my play for Friday ironclad. 
  • It looks like Friday is the day to play anything. So survival until then will be key for me this week. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413
  • $QQQ - levels 290 > 293 > 296 > 300 > 302 > 308 > 313 > 318 > 320
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Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Tuesday, August 30th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • We had a small gap down and basically chopped around from 401.50 to 405 all day. We opened at 402.20 and closed at 402.60. So no trend could be identified today. Are we headed lower, or are we going to bounce? This probably won't be answered until Friday's Job data, so temper expectations on any major moves before hand. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?


Current Positions and Plays:

  • I sold my SPX put for a nice profit and scalped some puts for a few more gains to add to the day. Then... I gave it all up by grabbing calls near 404.50 after I realized the Brainard speech had nothing to do with the market. This started awesome, and then we sold off at the end of the day and it took all my daily gains.  

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are still oversold on the 1 hour chart. The 30 min chart and 4 hour is just above oversold and daily is neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
  • SPY is approaching the key 400 level. I expect a bounce/ consolidation at that or 396.
  • If we consolidate near 396, I am thinking we could see a flush down eventually. 
  • If we bounce off of 396, I could see a test to 410. 

  • QQQ Technicals - We are still oversold on the 1 hour chart. The 30 min chart and 4 hour is just above oversold and daily is neutral. 
  • QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382. 
  • QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support.
  • QQQ is approaching the key 300 level. I expect a bounce/ consolidation at that level

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: I am looking at a 400 test and waiting to see what the reaction will be there. We got near it today and the buyers stepped in at 401.50 but couldn't keep the chart above the 404 level. So I am looking to see if we can get a sustainable bounce off that level to 407. Otherwise it looks like chop all week. 
  • Scenario 2: We break under 400 and 396. Then we consolidate. If this happens, the chart could flush down on hot jobs data on Friday. 
  • It looks like Friday is the day to play anything. So survival until then will be key for me this week. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413
  • $QQQ - levels 290 > 293 > 296 > 300 > 302 > 308 > 313 > 318 > 320
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Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Monday, August 29th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • Heading into Friday, the big question that everyone was asking for weeks was the Fed still feared and did JPow have the power still to move the markets down. Well, we got our answer after just an 8 minute speech from JPow took the market from 420 to 405 in one trading day. 
  • The tide has certainly shifted and there is bearish sentiment all over the place. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?


Current Positions and Plays:

  • I completely messed up my straddle play on Friday. Got myself in a hole, but fought my way out of it. Best thing I could have was nothing. 
  • I am holding a SPX put over the weekend and plan on selling it at the open on Monday. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are now oversold on the 30 min chart and 1 hour chart. The 4 hour is just above oversold and daily is neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
  • SPY is approaching the key 400 level. I expect a bounce/ consolidation at that or 396.
  • If we consolidate near 396, I am thinking we could see a flush down eventually. 
  • If we bounce off of 396, I could see a test 410. 

  • QQQ Technicals - We are now overbought on the 30 min chart, and slightly under overbought on the 1 hour chart. The 4 hour and daily are neutral. 
  • QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382. 
  • QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support.
  • QQQ is approaching the key 300 level. I expect a bounce/ consolidation at that level

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: We test 400. I will sell my puts and sit back and see what the charts do. If we break under and test 396, I am again sitting tight and seeing what the chart will do. 
  • Scenario 2: We never test 400. I will wait and see how high we can get and fade the rip. I know we are testing 400 eventually. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413
  • $QQQ - levels 290 > 293 > 296 > 300 > 302 > 308 > 313 > 318 > 320
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0
Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Friday, August 26th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • We had a nice green start to the day. The key for me was to watch NVDA and see if it could recover from its drop from its earnings report. It did recover and the market gave a big hint as to what the daily trend would be.
  • SPY hit 417.50 in the morning and then retested the 415 level before ripping up after 1pm. It was nonstop buying and push SPY all the way to 419.51 at the close.  
  • Friday is the main event, and I think we got a little hint as to what is coming. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?


Current Positions and Plays:

  • With the bullish move, I was able to get out of my SPX calls with little to no damage. That was a HUGE win for me after being underwater all week on them. 
  • I am holding a straddle play now for SPX. 

What Do I Think?

  • Note 2 Fundamental events tomorrow will make the technicals less important, so keep that in mind with the overbought conditions. 
  • SPY Technicals - We are now overbought on the 30 min chart, and slightly under overbought on the 1 hour chart. The 4 hour and daily are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
  • 200 SMA is at 431.57. This is a big level to jump over and has now proven to be the possible top resistance of this bear market rally.   

  • QQQ Technicals - We are now overbought on the 30 min chart, and slightly under overbought on the 1 hour chart. The 4 hour and daily are neutral. 
  • QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382. 
  • QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

  • It is showtime. PCE and JPow... So we need to break up this day in 2 parts. 
  • Part 1 - PCE Data at 8:30am
    • Scenario 1: PCE Core and Topline come in under the previous months (cold reading). We should see a move upward at the open and break the 420 or 422 wall before JPow. 
    • Scenario 2: PCE Core and Topline come in above the expectations (hot reading). This should send us back to 415 by the open. 
    • Scenario 3: PCE Core and Topline come in muted or mixed (one hot, one cold). We open up flat and await JPow to move the markets.

  • Part 2 - JPow's speech
    • Scenario 1: PCE Data is cold and JPow "talks" hawkish but provides no new details on his tightening plan. SPY will rocket up to over 425 
    • Scenario 2: PCE Data is hot and JPow comes in with a hawkish tone AND provides new aggressive details on his tightening plan. SPY will crater to test a possible 410 support. 
    • Scenario 3: PCE Data is muted and JPow comes in with a wait and see approach. I think this will be a bullish move, but it will not create an impulsive move upward. This would be the worst case scenario for my straddle as we will chop and stay rather flat. 

  • Here is hoping that Scenarios 1 or 2 happen for Part 1 and Part 2. Otherwise my straddle is toast. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431
  • $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 318 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 330 > 338
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Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Thursday, August 25th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • We opened again flat, and it was mostly a choppy day. There was again a pop near the open to 415, but the sellers came in batted it back down to 413. We just hung around that level until the end of the day.
  • NVDA reported their earnings and their forecast came in weak. This led to a slide in afterhours. 
  • All this flat action is setting up for a major move on Friday. One more day to get through. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?


Current Positions and Plays:

  • I again had an opportunity to get out of my calls with minimal damage and again held through the pop and drop. I am looking for a bounce over 416 to exit before Friday. 
  • I am looking at doing a straddle or strangle play for Friday expiration on SPY. I will enter this at 3:15pm EST. My plan is to grab a call and put that is about $2 or $3 out of the money for Friday's expiration. One will die, and one should payout. Looking for the winner to be above 200%. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are out of oversold on the 30 min chart, 1 hour chart and are now neutral. We are barely out of oversold on the 4 hour chart. The daily are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
  • 200 SMA is at 431.57. This is a big level to jump over and has now proven to be the possible top resistance of this bear market rally.   

  • QQQ Technicals - We are out of oversold on the 30 min chart, 1 hour chart and are now neutral. We are barely out of oversold on the 4 hour chart. The daily are neutral.
  • QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382. 
  • QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support. This did not hold up at all today. I expect we revisit this level on Tuesday. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:

  • I am sorry for the repetitive nature of these previews, but we have just been in the same zone all week. 
  • Scenario 1: We gap down under 410. We should see 410 being defended a bit so I expect a bounce here. I will just hold my calls and wait for the bounce. 
  • Scenario 2: We gap up above 416. I would look for a rejection point near 418, sell my calls here and play my strangle play for Friday.  
  • Scenario 3: We open flat. Just sit back and see if the QQQ can hold 315.50. If it does, then we have a potential bounce back to 416. 
  • My confidence level on the 3 scenarios above is low, so the best approach is not trade until Friday. There is no real A+ setup presenting itself for a swing entry right now. 
  • NOTE: Friday morning is presenting a good momentum opportunity with the PCE and JPow events.
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431
  • $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 318 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 330 > 338
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Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Wednesday, August 24th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • We opened Tuesday flat, and it was mostly a choppy day. There was one pop near the open to 415, but the sellers came in batted it back down to 412. 
  • QQQ continues to slide down. DXY and oil are on the move up. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?


Current Positions and Plays:

  • I had an opportunity to get out of my calls on the morning pop, and decided to hold out for the 416 test. It never came and back down we went. I am looking at 412 as support. If that breaks, I will just take the L on the calls and wait until Thursday to load up my strangle play for Friday.  

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are out of oversold on the 30 min chart. We are still oversold on the 1 hour chart. The 4 hour and daily are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
  • 200 SMA is at 431.57. This is a big level to jump over and has now proven to be the possible top resistance of this bear market rally.   

  • QQQ Technicals - We are out of oversold on the 30 min chart. We are still oversold on the 1 hour chart. The 4 hour and daily are neutral.  
  • QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382. 
  • QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support. This did not hold up at all today. I expect we revisit this level on Tuesday. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: We gap down under 410. We should see 410 being defended a bit so I expect a bounce here. I will just hold my calls and not enter any new positions. 
  • Scenario 2: We gap up above 416. I would look for a rejection point near 418, sell my calls here and will enter puts to swing until Thursday. 
  • Scenario 3: We open flat. Just sit back and see if the QQQ can reclaim 315.50. If it does, then we have a potential bounce back to 416. 
  • My confidence level on the 3 scenarios above is low, so the best approach is not trade until Friday. There is no real A+ setup presenting itself for a swing entry right now. 
  • NOTE: Friday morning is presenting a good momentum opportunity with the PCE and JPow events. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431
  • $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 318 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 330 > 338
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Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Tuesday, August 23rd Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • We gapped down again on Monday to open around 417. The selling did not stop and we tested sub 413 and closed at 413.35. 
  • We honored really no levels on the way down, and it broke a few levels a little too easily imo.  

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?


Current Positions and Plays:

  • I was expecting a retest of 420 today and we never got it. I fumbled away the biggest day gain I have had in 2 years by selling my SPX puts Friday at the close. I did close out my QQQ puts today for a 30% win. I am now holding a few SPX calls as I am looking for a Turnaround Tuesday.  

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are now oversold on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. The 4 hour and daily are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
  • 200 SMA is at 431.57. This is a big level to jump over and has now proven to be the possible top resistance of this bear market rally. 
  • SPY never retested 420 today, which is kind of surprising. I will look for a 416 level break on the next move up. If we start weak again on Tuesday, looking for a 410 test and then a bounce.  

  • QQQ Technicals - We are now oversold on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. The 4 hour and daily are neutral.  
  • QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382. 
  • QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support. This did not hold up at all today. I expect we revisit this level on Tuesday. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: We gap down under 410. We should see 410 being defended a bit so I expect a bounce here. I will just hold my calls and not enter any new positions. 
  • Scenario 2: We gap up above 416. I would look for a rejection point near 418, sell my calls here and will enter puts to swing until Thursday. 
  • Scenario 3: We open flat. Just sit back and see if the QQQ can reclaim 315.50. If it does, then we have a potential bounce back to 416. 
  • NOTE: Friday morning is presenting a good momentum opportunity with the PCE and JPow events. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431
  • $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 318 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 330 > 338
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Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Monday, August 22nd Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • I was off on Friday, so I apologize for not doing a preview.
  • The bull trap was set on Thursday at the close and  we gapped down at the open. The market could never recover and we closed near 422. 
  • Bears finally got a win after a brutal few weeks. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?


Current Positions and Plays:

  • I closed out my SPX puts at the close on Friday. The only reason I did was to re-enter with more ITM puts. I had SPX 4100 puts for 09/16 and I would rather have 4150 or 4200 puts. I will look to enter those on any pop in the market.   

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We worked out all the overbought technicals on Friday. The 4 hour and daily are neutral. While the 30 min and 1 hour are close to oversold. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
  • 200 SMA is at 431.57. This is a big level to jump over and has now proven to be the possible top resistance of this bear market rally. 
  • SPY seems to be gravitating to the 420 support will be a big level to watch. Look for a stop loss raid near that level. 

  • QQQ Technicals - We worked out all the overbought technicals on Friday. The 4 hour and daily are neutral. While the 30 min and 1 hour are close to oversold. 
  • QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382. 
  • QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support. 
  • Keep an eye on the 320 level 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: We gap down under 420. We should see 420 being defended a bit so I expect a retest of 420. If it rejects, look for puts to 416. 
  • Scenario 2: We gap up above 424. I would look for a rejection point near 425 and will enter puts to swing until Thursday. 
  • Scenario 3: We open flat. Just sit back and look for the 420 level to be tested. We should see a bounce off of it, so play the Fibs and scalp away. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431
  • $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 318 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 330 > 338
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Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Thursday, August 18th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • It was a big day for economic data. UK inflation data came in higher than expected. EU GDP came in slightly lower and US Retail Sales came in slightly higher. The market opened red and chopped around a bit until the FOMC Minutes release. 
  • The minutes release saw its normal spiked action and it appeared as if the market was headed back to 430 shortly after the release. But as the algos digested the info, the seller s showed up and pushed us down from 429 to 427. More importantly, QQQ was unable to hold the 330 level.  

What to Expect on Thursday?

  • Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30am - Not a big event
  • Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 8:30am
  • Existing Home Sales at 10am - this one could set the tone for the day. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I have some SPX puts for Sept, and QQQ puts for December. I am as bearish as you can get. These turned green today and I am looking at riding them to SPY 420. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We worked out some technicals today. The 4 hour and daily are nearly overbought. While the 30 min and 1 hour are neutral. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
  • 200 SMA is at 431.57. This is a big level to jump over. 
  • SPY seems to be gravitating to the 427

  • QQQ Technicals - We worked out some technicals today. The 4 hour and daily are nearly overbought. While the 30 min and 1 hour are neutral.
  • QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382. 
  • QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support. 
  • Keep an eye on the 330 level 


THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: We gap down under 423. I would look for SPY to retest 425 and then head lower. We are getting to the end of a rally so I expect a stop loss raid to happen at certain levels if the buyers cannot successfully get back over the key levels. A flush could happen at any moment when the volume shows back up. We got some gaps to fill on the down side. 
  • Scenario 2: We gap up above 429. I would sit back and see if SPY can break 431. If it can, that would be a bullish indicator that the rally is not over just yet. We need a catalyst to get us over the this major level. 
  • Scenario 3: We open flat. Just sit back and set your intraday Fibs and scalp away. This is a scalpers market for the next few sessions. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 

Levels I am Watching
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Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Wednesday, August 17th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • On Tuesday, we opened slightly down and the market broke under 427 for a brief moment. Then recovered to set another high in this trend to 431.80. And then it dropped rapidly 3 points. It ran right into the 200 SMA before it reversed. 

What to Expect on Wednesday?

  • UK Inflation Data at 2:00am EST
  • EU GDP data at 5:00am EST
  • Retail economic data at 8:30am EST
  • FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST
  • TGT has earnings in premarket.

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I have some SPX puts for Sept, and QQQ puts for December. I am as bearish as you can get. These are red at the moment, and I rolled the August ones into the September ones. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are nearly overbought in the 30 min and 1 hour, and are overbought on the 4 hour and on the Daily. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
  • 200 SMA is at 431.57. This is a big level to jump over. 

  • QQQ Technicals - We are nearly overbought in the 30 min and 1 hour, and are overbought on the 4 hour and on the Daily. 
  • QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382. 
  • QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support. 


THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: Retail Data is strong (stronger economy), we will see chop heading into FOMC minutes at 2pm. If the minutes come out hawkish with no neutral rate talk, then I expect a sharp move downward possibly to 420.
  • Scenario 2: Retail data is weaker, we will see chop heading into FOMC minutes at 2pm. If the minutes come out dovish and hint at a pause in hikes, the market is going to run to 440.
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 

Levels I am Watching
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Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Tuesday, August 16th Market Preview


What Happened? - 

  • On Monday, we opened slightly red and again the market bought the dip on low volume. SPY moved to an incredible 429 before facing some resistance there. 

What to Expect on Tuesday?

  • Housing economic data at 8:30am.
  • WMT has earnings in premarket.
  • NOTE: Wednesday is the big economic data data day with Retail Sales and FOMC Minutes. 
  • We have to keep an eye on 2 things, DXY and Oil. If the DXY goes up, that normally means commodities go down. If commodities go down, that helps keep inflation under control. If the DXY starts to drop, Oil will go higher and that will push us to a higher inflation reading in the future. But... DXY going up also does not help equities, so the DXY is going to be the key for me going forward. 
  • Fed Speakers for this week:

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I have some SPX puts for August, Sept, and QQQ puts for December. I am as bearish as you can get. These are red at the moment, but the only one worrying me is the 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are overbought on the 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and on the Daily. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.

  • QQQ Technicals - We are overbought on all the major charts, 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and on the Daily. 
  • QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382. 
  • QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support. 


THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: We gap down to 425 due to WMT's earnings. I would look to hold my puts and maybe trim near the 423 mark if it drops. If we recover, I will hold my puts heading into Wednesday's big economic data. 
  • Scenario 2: We open flat. Just sit back and wait for SPY to test 430 and see how it reacts to it. 
  • Scenario 3: We gap up due to WMT's strong earnings. This will be a tough pill to swallow, but it would also put us in an extreme overbought scenario. I would look to cut my short term August puts if SPY broke 433. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431 > 433
  • $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 316 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 338
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Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Monday, August 15th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • On Friday, the market moved to an incredible 427 with a slow uptick. Note it was the lowest volume day of the year. 

What to Expect on Monday?

  • No major economic data on Monday.
  • WMT has earnings on Tuesday in premarket so keep that in mind if you plan on swinging anything.
  • NOTE: Wednesday is the big economic data data day with Retail Sales and FOMC Minutes. 
  • We have to keep an eye on 2 things, DXY and Oil. If the DXY goes up, that normally means commodities go down. If commodities go down, that helps keep inflation under control. If the DXY starts to drop, Oil will go higher and that will push us to a higher inflation reading in the future. But... DXY going up also does not help equities, so the DXY is going to be the key for me going forward. 
  • Fed Speakers for this week:

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I have some SPX puts for August, Sept, and QQQ puts for December. I am as bearish as you can get.

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are overbought on the 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and on the Daily. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.

Screen Shot 2022-08-15 at 8.09.05 AM.png 621.66 KB


  • QQQ Technicals - We are overbought on all the major charts, 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and on the Daily. 
  • QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382. 
  • QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support. 
Screen Shot 2022-08-15 at 8.10.20 AM.png 621.51 KB


THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: We gap down to 424. I would expect a jump up from here and it will ultimately pullback down. So I will look to get out of my August puts near the open and wait for the rejection after the pump to re-enter some more puts for September. 
  • Scenario 2: We open flat. Just sit back and wait for SPY to test 430. No reason to be in a hurry to enter any puts today. I can't do calls. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431
  • $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 316 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 338
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Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Friday, August 12th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • PPI came in lower on the headline number and lower on the Core. This confirmed the CPI reading was not a one of. 
  • SPY rocketed up to 425 and got us in a way over extended and we pulled back to under 420 near the close. 
  • We are still at major resistance on the QQQ and SPY. This rally looks to be topping. 

What to Expect on Friday?

  • We have UoM data at 10am. The last few weeks when this data was released, it has cause a positive pop in the market. I expect the same thing to happen today. 
  • We have to keep an eye on 2 things, DXY and Oil. If the DXY goes up, that normally means commodities go down. If commodities go down, that helps keep inflation under control. If the DXY starts to drop, Oil will go higher and that will push us to a higher inflation reading in the future. But... DXY going up also does not help equities, so the DXY is going to be the key for me going forward. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I have some SPX calls as I think we have about 2% left on this rally. I grabbed it near the 421 level on average. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are neutral on the 30 min, 1 hour,  and almost overbought on the 4 hour and on the Daily. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236. I still hated every second of this @mcarter.

Screen Shot 2022-08-12 at 8.19.53 AM.png 534.46 KB


  • QQQ Technicals - We are just outside of overbought on all the major charts, 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and on the Daily. 
  • QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382. 
  • QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support. 
Screen Shot 2022-08-12 at 8.20.45 AM.png 530.12 KB


WTF is Going On (Repeat)? 

  • CPI has been released so where are we headed?
    • This is the billion dollar question. First we need to answer a few questions. 
  • Why we moved up on a CPI reading that is still at 8.5%?
    • Two words sums up why we moved up, New Data. The market has the old data, the higher data and is going to react to updated data. And the inflation data came down, and more importantly the core came in flat from the previous month's number. Peak inflation narrative now has data to back it up. Fed's current rate hike plan now has data to back it up. So more importantly this puts ice on any emergency rate hikes or 100 BPS hikes in September. 
  • Is that CPI Reading enough to move us up any further?
    • This was the big data release for this month. Inflation is the key thing the Fed is focused on controlling. So yes this CPI number offers optimism in the Fed's plan. So will it be enough to break over some technical resistance? That is what I am looking for. There is a lot of money on the sidelines, and does this start bringing that money back into the market. I think if SPY closes the week over 420, it is a big bullish win. 
  • Ok, so what can bring us lower?
    • We will answer this question that no black swan events come in. We have the PPI tomorrow morning and that can pour some cold water on the market, but it is not a major data release. The next major landmine is looking like the statement out of the Jackson Hole Symposium from JPow at the end of this month on the week of the 22nd. Then we have PCE data afterwards. Bears only have technical resistances now to hang their hat on. We are overextended on the charts and it is ripe for a major pullback. But until that starts, don't guess on it. I lost $10k guessing it for the last two weeks. 
  • So what is your plan?
    • I am watching QQQ like a hawk. If we break above 327, then I am going to play calls up to 335. When we hit that mark I will start to build a long term short position since the VIX will be low. This market will cool off and face reality that the bear market is not over due to QT and more Fed tightening. I don't know when exactly it is coming down, so I will make sure to give myself enough time. If we start to reject heavy at 327 and can't break over it, then I will play the downside as the current resistance at 327 is valid.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: We open up flat (+/- 1 or 2 points) - Sit back and wait for the 10am UoM data and see if we get above 327 on the QQQ. If we go up, grab calls. If it goes down, grab puts. We are at an inflection point but we will not have any major moves in this market. So you can scalp very small moves, but it also is a little safer to hold as we do not have any events to trigger larger moves. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 

Levels I am Watching
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Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Thursday, August 11th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • CPI came in lower on the headline number and lower vs expectations on the Core. Market rocketed up to over 418 at the open. 
  • The very interesting thing here is that we not only moved so much in premarket but we held it all day long and closed near 420. That is a very bullish sign. 
  • We are at major resistance on the QQQ, so we will look more into that in the technical analysis section below. 

What to Expect on Tuesday?

  • We have PPI in the morning. This could pour some cold water on the bullish move we got today, but I am not seeing it as a major indicator honestly. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I am all cash heading into tomorrow. Just waiting on confirmation on whether we break above this QQQ resistance. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are just outside of overbought on all the major charts, 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and on the Daily. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236. I hated every second of this @mcarter.

Screen Shot 2022-08-10 at 10.54.04 PM.png 461.66 KB


  • QQQ Technicals - We are just outside of overbought on all the major charts, 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and on the Daily. 
  • QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382. 
  • QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support. 

Screen Shot 2022-08-10 at 10.54.32 PM.png 541.92 KB

WTF is Going On? 

  • CPI has been released so where are we headed?
    • This is the billion dollar question. First we need to answer a few questions. 
  • Why we moved up on a CPI reading that is still at 8.5%?
    • Two words sums up why we moved up, New Data. The market has the old data, the higher data and is going to react to updated data. And the inflation data came down, and more importantly the core came in flat from the previous month's number. Peak inflation narrative now has data to back it up. Fed's current rate hike plan now has data to back it up. So more importantly this puts ice on any emergency rate hikes or 100 BPS hikes in September. 
  • Is that CPI Reading enough to move us up any further?
    • This was the big data release for this month. Inflation is the key thing the Fed is focused on controlling. So yes this CPI number offers optimism in the Fed's plan. So will it be enough to break over some technical resistance? That is what I am looking for. There is a lot of money on the sidelines, and does this start bringing that money back into the market. I think if SPY closes the week over 420, it is a big bullish win. 
  • Ok, so what can bring us lower?
    • We will answer this question that no black swan events come in. We have the PPI tomorrow morning and that can pour some cold water on the market, but it is not a major data release. The next major landmine is looking like the statement out of the Jackson Hole Symposium from JPow at the end of this month on the week of the 22nd. Then we have PCE data afterwards. Bears only have technical resistances now to hang their hat on. We are overextended on the charts and it is ripe for a major pullback. But until that starts, don't guess on it. I lost $10k guessing it for the last two weeks. 
  • So what is your plan?
    • I am watching QQQ like a hawk. If we break above 327, then I am going to play calls up to 335. When we hit that mark I will start to build a long term short position since the VIX will be low. This market will cool off and face reality that the bear market is not over due to QT and more Fed tightening. I don't know when exactly it is coming down, so I will make sure to give myself enough time. If we start to reject heavy at 327 and can't break over it, then I will play the downside as the current resistance at 327 is valid.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: If QQQ breaks 327, grab calls up until 338. This will take a few days, maybe even a few weeks. So I will grab longer dated expirations. I like playing the SPX here on the upside as it has other components to keep it propped up. 
  • Scenario 2: If QQQ is rejected at 327. Grab calls for a short term scalp for a play to 323. Then see how it handles that level as that is key support. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 

Levels I am Watching
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Mentions: QQQ
Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Wednesday, August 10th CPI Preview

We are going to do things a little different tonight and just focus on the big CPI data release on Wednesday morning in premarket. 

CPI Expectations: 

  • Headline CPI (Last Month's Figure): 9.1%.
  • Headline CPI Expectation (Year-Over-Year): 8.7%.
  • Core CPI (Last Month's Figure): 5.9%.
  • Core CPI Expectation (Year-Over-Year): 6.1%

What Do I Think?

  • Technicals matter but mainly the levels. With a big fundamental event like CPI, you can't rely as much on technicals. This could be a nice trend day. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: Headline CPI is higher, and Core is at estimate or higher - Grab puts and ride SPY down to sub 400. Buy near the open and sell at the close. 
  • Scenario 2: Headline CPI is lower, and Core is lower - Grab calls and ride SPY up to over 420. Buy near the open and sell at the close. 
  • Scenario 3: Headline CPI is slightly lower, and Core is at estimate - No clear move here. I would wait for a possible move upward and look to play some more puts at a certain major level 413? 417? I am not sure, I will have to wait for the chart to show me the resistance. 
  • Scenario 4:  Headline CPI is at expectations, and Core is at estimate - Same move as scenario 3. 

The best case I can hope for is Scenario 1 or 2 as that will set a clear trend. So let's hope for that. 
Good luck and Happy Trading!

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 396 > 401 > 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > I refuse to go higher on the levels. 
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Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Tuesday, August 9th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • We got a surprise from NVDA about their upcoming earnings. They lowered their guidance and hinted at a revenue miss due to a decrease in gaming demand. 
  • Market shrugged it off and ripped up to a new trend high over 417, and the meme stocks started to really move. The first hour or so was peak FOMO in the markets. We have not seen that in quite some time. 
  • But the euphoria started to fizzle and the market dropped quickly to test sub 412 at one point. We closed near the big support of 413. 

What to Expect on Tuesday?

  • Wednesday has the CPI data release in premarket. Nothing really matters until then. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I am still in SPX 4100 puts for 08/17 and ARKK 45 puts for October. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are just outside of overbought on the 4 hour and now neutral on the 30 min and 1 hour. The Daily is also getting overextended. 
  • SPY Technicals - The chart to watch here is the 4 hour imo. This is now starting to show red impressions on the MACD and looks to be finally getting a pullback to clear up the overbought technicals. 
  • SPY Technicals - All eyes on the 413 and 410.50 levels. Break under 410.50, it is a quick stop at 408 and then 400. Hold above 413, and we are testing 416. Break 416 and its off to 420. 

WTF is Going On? 

  • So CPI is on Wednesday, what is your take?
    • This is feeling like a big ol' bear trap. I expect the topline number to be less than the previous months by quite a bit due to the drop in oil prices. So it is all about the Core number. If that number is not hot (higher), the market will start its peak inflation narrative. That will rally the markets. If the Core number comes in higher, the market will dip to key supports on the indices (SPY 400? possible 396) then bounce from there imo. So either way I am looking for a bounce. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: We get above 415. I will grab some more puts and hold them into the close. We are going to de-risk heading into CPI. 
  • Scenario 2: We get down below 410. I may take some profit here. But I am trying my best to hold these puts until the close. 
  • Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 1 points). Just sit back and keep with the selling plan at the close. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • NOTE #2: I would recommend selling any short term options ahead of the CPI release on Wednesday. It will set the trend and will move the markets in a violent direction one way or the other. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 396 > 401 > 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > I refuse to go higher on the levels. 
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Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Monday, August 8th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • We got the jobs data on Friday and boy was it hot hot hot. It came in almost double over estimates and it will put to rest a Fed Pivot theory for now. 
  • My puts ended up nicely at the open, and I held a little too long but still managed a green day. Still trying to figure out the timing of these swing trades a little better. 
  • The market recovered back to 413 at the close. So if the jobs report was hot, why did we recover from under 410? More on that below. 

What to Expect on Monday?

  • Monday
    • No major economic Data
    • Earnings Premarket - PLTR and TSN in premarket. Watching Tyson for some clues on the food side of inflation. My guess Tyson crushes earnings
    • Earnings Afterhours - UPST, MARA, NVAX. This is a nice throwback to 2020/2021 retail darlings. Watching for entertainment and nothing more. 
  • Wednesday has the CPI data release in premarket. Nothing really matters until then. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I am in SPX 4100 puts for 08/17 and ARKK 45 puts for October. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are just outside of overbought on the 4 hour and now neutral on the 30 min and 1 hour. The Daily is also getting overextended. 
  • SPY Technicals - The chart to watch here is the 4 hour imo. This is now starting to show red impressions on the MACD and looks to be finally getting a pullback to clear up the overbought technicals. 
  • SPY Technicals - All eyes on the 413 and 410.50 levels. Break under 410.50, it is a quick stop at 408 and then 400. Hold above 413, and we are testing 416. Break 416 and its off to 420. 

WTF is Going On?

  • Jobs Data came out hot, but we still recovered 413. Explain this please?
    • The market reacted negatively to the jobs report in premarket. The resiliency of the market recovering 413 on Friday cannot be ignored, but it also wasn't the green light to go long. Jobs data is important, and it was by far the biggest economic event of the week, but it is not on equal footing as a CPI or FOMC data release. The jobs data is like an extra topping on the pizza, it is important but not overall relevant in the grand scheme of things. 
  • So CPI is on Wednesday, what is your take?
    • This is feeling like a big ol' bear trap. I expect the topline number to be less than the previous months by quite a bit due to the drop in oil prices. So it is all about the Core number. If that number is not hot (higher), the market will start its peak inflation narrative. That will rally the markets. If the Core number comes in higher, the market will dip to key supports on the indices (SPY 400? possible 396) then bounce from there imo. So either way I am looking for a bounce. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: We get above 415. I will grab some more puts and hold them into Tuesday. We are going to de-risk heading into CPI. 
  • Scenario 2: We get down below 410. I may take some profit here. But I am trying my best to hold these puts until Tuesday at the close. 
  • Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 1 points). Just sit back and ignore the market. No point in playing anything. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • NOTE #2: I will be out of everything no matter what on Tuesday at the close. I am not messing with CPI data release. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 396 > 401 > 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 416 > 420 > I refuse to go higher on the levels. 
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Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Friday, August 5th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • SPY opened up flat and just chopped around all day. No trend day. 
  • I am still holding my puts from Wednesday's overnight swing. 

What to Expect?

  • Friday
    • Premarket Earnings - DKNG
    • Payroll Data at 8:30am. This is the big data for the week. Did it get leaked?

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I did add some ARKK puts today for October. I am tailing a whale on this one. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are still overbought on the 4 hour and now neutral on the 30 min and 1 hour. The Daily is also getting overextended. 
  • SPY Technicals - All eyes on the 413 and 415 levels. They have been the support and resistance for the last few days. A solid break under 413 and we are testing 410. If we break above 415, then we are headed to 417 and then most likely 420. 

WTF is Going On?


THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: We gap up above 415. I will need to decide if I just take the loss on the puts right away or revert back to waiting on the technicals to cool. I will most likely take the loss, and grab calls if a trend is identified since this would be moving based on a fundamental event. 
  • Scenario 2: We gap down below 413. I will see if a 413 retest happens and a rejection. If that is the case, then we are headed to 410 and I will ride my puts. 
  • Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 1 points). This would be a situation where I would need to look at rolling my puts out a bit further.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 396 > 401 > 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 416 > 420 > I refuse to go higher on the levels. 
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Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Thursday, August 4th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • SPY gapped up above 410 and really never looked back. Unreal day by the market to get all the way to 415. 
  • My puts that I swung were stupidly red so I did the natural thing and averaged down into oblivion. I am now holding a lot of puts and I am not thrilled about it. 

What to Expect?

  • Thursday
    • Premarket Earnings - K, CROX
    • UK Interest Rate Decision at 7am
    • Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30am
    • Afterhours Earnings - AMC, SQ, FUBO
  • Friday
    • Premarket Earnings - DKNG
    • Payroll Data at 8:30am. This is the big data for the week. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I swung puts overnight and got pummeled. I did buy some time so I am going to gamble to see if this pullback shows up this week. If not, I am going to just take the Big loss and reset. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are now near overbought on the 30 min, 1 hour charts and the daily chart. We are back in overbought territory in the 4 hour charts. I mean by God, can we get these technicals worked out. 
  • SPY Technicals - We are now comfortably above the big level at 400 for SPY. We tested 413 and blew right through it to 415. SPY is looking like it wants to go to 420. 
  • Bonus Technicals! QQQ - We are overbought in 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour are overbought. And are almost overbought on the Daily. This is wild. Like how much higher can they push this thing...

WTF is Going On?

  • So you just going to miss this entire rally waiting on this pullback?
    • Clearly, I am and fuck you for asking...
  • Ok grumpy, what are you hoping for tomorrow?
    • The ECB announces their rate hike tomorrow morning at 7am. I will be watching how the DXY reacts to this news. If it starts to move upward to 107, the market will pullback. 
  • Will you buy calls at all up here?
    • I just can't do it. The risk vs reward for calls up here is not worth it imo. I don't care if JPow is announced president of the United States, I can't buy calls with the RSI almost in heaven on all the major charts. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: We gap up above 420. I will roll my puts and go buy some whiskey and tissues to start my weekend early.
  • Scenario 2: We gap down below 410. I will sell my puts and sit back and see if we are finally going to break down below 408 or if we will rebound. I will be watching the overbought conditions on the QQQ like a hawk. 
  • Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points). This is a sit back and see much like scenario 2.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 396 > 401 > 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 416 > 420 > I refuse to go higher on the levels. 
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Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Wednesday, August 3rd Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • SPY gapped down in the morning. The Pelosi drama got a lot of attention, and honestly it was just a catalyst that the market needed to cool off the overbought technicals. We hit 407 and then started another bullish move to 413 once those technicals got worked out. Then 413 showed its level of resistance and back down we went to 408 at the close. Was an entertaining day. 
  • HKD stole the show again today. This Chinese company at one point was the 8th largest company in the world by market cap. (Thanks to the discord for shouting this out). 
  • Afterhours had ok earnings from AMD and great earnings for PYPL. Should be a fun day tomorrow. 

What to Expect?

  • Wednesday
    • Premarket Earnings - UA, MRNA, CVS
    • No major economic data I was wrong OPEC+ meets
    • Afterhours Earnings - LCID, HOOD
  • Thursday
    • Premarket Earnings - K, CROX
    • UK Interest Rate Decision at 7am
    • No major economic data
    • Afterhours Earnings - AMC, SQ, FUBO
  • Friday
    • Premarket Earnings - DKNG
    • Payroll Data at 8:30am. This is the big data for the week. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I swung puts overnight and started off the day nice and green. Then got greedy and rode puts again as I thought QQQ was headed to 308. I got caught in a 4 point rally and Exited the puts at a nasty loss on the way down. Just terrible entries by me and it messed up my day. 
  • Holding a SPX put going into Wednesday. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are now neutral on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. The drop we had, worked out the overbought technicals on the big 4 hour chart, however we are still pretty close to those conditions so we need a little more of a drop to avoid getting right back in that territory on the next move upward. Getting close on the daily chart as well.
  • SPY Technicals - We are now comfortably above the big level at 400 for SPY. We again saw selling pressure at 413 for the 3rd straight session. We got under 410 and are testing the 408 level now. I would love for us to get down to 404 to create a longer rally on the way back up. 

WTF is Going On?

  • Jobs Data was this morning, what happened?
    • The Jobs opening number came in lower than expected. This is unfortunately just 50% of the data. We don't know if these jobs were taken down or if they were filled. We will know the answer on Friday. 
  • We got another pullback, all good?
    • We did get a nice pullback but then the dip buyers came right in and pushed the 4 hour chart right back in overextended territory lol. the pullback at the end of the day was enough to get us out of the overbought conditions, but now we need a little more of a drop otherwise we get right back in there with the next pop.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: We gap up above 410. I think I will sit this out until it makes a clear move to either 413 or 408. I am leaning puts still so just need to make sure I get a good entry. 
  • Scenario 2: We gap down below 405. This will work out the technicals and see if the buyers show up. If they do, I will jump in some calls. 
  • Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points). This is a sit back and see much like scenario 1.

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 390 > 393 > 396 > 401 > 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 416 > 420
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Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Tuesday, August 2nd Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • SPY started a little weak at the bell and then 10 mins later, it started a march to back above 410. It set a new high in this recent trend to 413.41. And then finally we got some selling pressure. 
  • SPY broke under 410 and then hung around 411 near the close. Overall it was a pretty flat day with some hints at a possible bigger selloff coming.  

What to Expect?

  • Tuesday
    • Premarket Earnings - UBER, CAT, BP, MRO, JBLU, MAR
    • Tesla Monthly Delivery Numbers (Not 100% sure about the release here, but historically they come out on the 2nd)
    • Jobs Data at 10:00am EST
    • Real Household Income Data at 11:00am EST
    • Bullard speaks at 6:45pm EST. 
    • Afterhours Earnings - AMD, PYPL, OXY, SOFI, SBUX
  • Wednesday
    • Premarket Earnings - UA, MRNA, CVS
    • No major economic data
    • Afterhours Earnings - LCID, HOOD
  • Thursday
    • Premarket Earnings - K, CROX
    • UK Interest Rate Decision at 7am
    • No major economic data
    • Afterhours Earnings - AMC, SQ, FUBO
  • Friday
    • Premarket Earnings - DKNG
    • Payroll Data at 8:30am. This is the big data for the week. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I played puts again on the overbought technicals and got a nice profit. Then I went back in for an overnight swing and got caught in a run from 410 to 411.
  • Holding SPX puts going into Tuesday. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are now neutral on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. The drop we had, worked out the technicals on those charts. We are still overbought on the big 4 hour chart. Getting close on the daily chart. One more 4-5 point drop will work out the technicals 4 hour chart.
  • SPY Technicals - We are now comfortably above the big level at 400 for SPY. We are seeing selling pressure at 413 for the last few sessions. We are looking at a breakdown under 410 and possibly under 408 before we see another move higher. 

WTF is Going On?

  • Jobs Data is in the morning, what should we expect?
    • This is a key data point for this week. Keep this in the back of your mind when you are determining how the market will react, good news is bad news and bad news is good news. If we have above expectations in Jobs Openings and Quit Data (bad data), the market will react positively to this. This means a weaker economy which means a less aggressive Fed. The Fed is the major fear of the market and any hint at a dovish Fed will move the market upward. The theory is that a weaker economy means that JPow and the Fed will be more timid to be aggressive since the economy can no longer handle it. 
  • Well we got the pullback, and the technicals are working out, so Calls?
    • Not quite yet. The 4 hour chart needs to cool off still and that will require a 4-5 point move downward. Until that chart cools off, you cannot comfortably be in calls for more than a few moments. Tomorrow could be the day though that we see the pullback. 
  • So we made it through the big data week last week with a huge bullish run. Where do we go from here?
    • Tricky spot here honestly. We are in the clear for the rally to continue from a fundamental standpoint. We do not have any major economic data until the jobs data on Friday. From a technical standpoint, we are way overbought, so I cannot comfortably buy any calls and hold them for more than a few candles. But if we do get a pullback to 408, or better yet 400, it is a good opportunity to grab calls for a few weeks out and ride the momentum. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: We gap up above 413. This will keep the 4 hour chart overbought and again I will take my beating and hold my puts and wait for the pullback. I have time on the my options, so I don't mind taking some short term hits on them. 
  • Scenario 2: We gap down below 408. This will work out the technicals and see if the buyers show up. If they do, I will sell my puts and jump in some calls. 
  • Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points). This is a sit back and see if the 4 hour chart overbought technicals matter. If we start to fall, I will be a happy boy with my puts. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 390 > 393 > 396 > 401 > 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 416 > 420
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Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Monday, August 1st Market Preview

What Happened? - 
  • SPY opened up slightly green after AMZN and AAPL reported strong earnings. But the market was digesting a little hotter than expected PCE data. 
  • SPY started a little weak at the bell and then 10 mins later, it started a march to 410. It reaches it, and pulls back to 408, then beings its march again to break 410 and hits 413. The RSI was over extended all day, and I got cooked playing for a bigger pullback. 
  • This was the last day of the month and it saw the SPY have its best month since 2020. 

What to Expect?

  • Monday
    • Premarket Earnings - None
    • Manufacturing PMI Data at 9:45am EST
    • ISM Manufacturing Index at 10:00am EST
    • Afterhours Earnings - PINS, ATVI, MOS (old fling of mine)
  • Tuesday
    • Premarket Earnings - UBER, CAT, BP, MRO, JBLU, MAR
    • Jobs Data at 10:00am EST
    • Real Household Income Data at 11:00am EST
    • Bullard speaks at 6:45pm EST. 
    • Afterhours Earnings - AMD, PYPL, OXY, SOFI, SBUX
  • Wednesday
    • Premarket Earnings - UA, MRNA, CVS
    • No major economic data
    • Afterhours Earnings - LCID, HOOD
  • Thursday
    • Premarket Earnings - K, CROX
    • UK Interest Rate Decision at 7am
    • No major economic data
    • Afterhours Earnings - AMC, SQ, FUBO
  • Friday
    • Premarket Earnings - DKNG
    • Payroll Data at 8:30am. This is the big data for the week. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I played puts as I became married to the overbought readings on the RSI on the 30 min and 1 hour. I just kept bleeding money as I watched the market move up to F me in the A.
  • I capitulated again on the puts and am just holding cash now.  

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are overbought on the 30 min, and the 1 hour charts, and the big 4 hour chart. Getting close on the daily chart. This is getting very very overextended. 
  • SPY Technicals - We are now comfortably above the big level at 400 for SPY. We jumped over the 404 level and now looking at the next Fib level is 417.
  • The market will look for any reason to pullback here. So be cautious and be nimble. 

WTF is Going On?

  • So we made it through the big data week last week with a huge bullish run. Where do we go from here?
    • Tricky spot here honestly. We are in the clear for the rally to continue from a fundamental standpoint. We do not have any major economic data until the jobs data on Friday. From a technical standpoint, we are way overbought, so I cannot comfortably buy any calls and hold them for more than a few candles. But if we do get a pullback to 408, or better yet 400, it is a good opportunity to grab calls for a few weeks out and ride the momentum. 
  • What could cause a pullback?
    • Literally anything can cause this market to pullback some. My guess is PINS causes it afterhours on Monday. Monday is the start of the month, so we could see buying trickle in all day. I don't expect much fireworks to happen on Monday, and if we revisit the 414 level, I am grabbing puts and holding them for a few days. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: We gap up above 414. We should see slight move upward and then the RSI will be so overbought that it will be time to pay those taxes at any moment. If we do drop, expect the selling to be intense to 408. Now this will be the big question as to whether the buyers show up. If they do, and the technicals are ok, then it is safe to grab some calls. 
  • Scenario 2: We gap down below 408. This will work out the technicals and see if the buyers show up. If they do, I will look to jump in calls. 
  • Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points). This is a sit back and see if the overbought technicals matter. If we start to fall, I will grab some puts. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 390 > 393 > 396 > 401 > 404.40 > 407 > 410 > 416 > 420
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Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Friday, July 29th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • SPY opened up flat and then had a nice pullback to 398.50 to work out some overbought technicals. Then the buyers showed up with a purpose.
  • SPY closed near the highs of the day at 406.
  • Then in afterhours, AAPL and AMZN reported good earnings and SPY took off to 409. Just a terrible to hold puts, and guess what I was holding like a jackass...

What to Expect?

  • Friday
    • Premarket Earnings - Exxon, Chevron, P&G
    • PCE Inflation Data at 8:30am EST
    • Consumer Spending Data at 8:30am EST
    • Q2 Employment Cost Index at 8:30am EST

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I played puts as I became married to the overbought readings on the RSI on the 30 min and 1 hour. I just kept bleeding money as I watched the market move up to F me in the A.
  • Still holding puts like a jackass. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are overbought on the 30 min, and the 1 hour charts, and the big 4 hour chart.
  • SPY Technicals - We are now comfortably above the big level at 380 for SPY. We filled the 401 gap and are jumped the 404.40 level. Next Fib level is 417.

WTF is Going On (Version 5)?

  • What is the updated boxing match score for this week?
    • Round 1 went to the bears with WMT news. Round 2 went to the bulls with MSFT and GOOG guidance FOMC was worth 3 rounds and I would give it a 2 to 1 favor to the bulls. So the bulls had a 3-2 advantage heading into the day. Round 6 was the GDP report and it came in negative. Which was bullish (more on this below). AAPL and AMZN came in with great earnings and we are now sitting at 6-2 with the Bulls in the lead.  So in the biggest week of the year, we had enough bullish wins to push SPY to damn near 410. Unreal week. Last one up is the PCE data on Friday mornings. 
  • GDP report was negative, Why did we go up?
    • This is the big question on FinTwit and to answer this properly, you have to turn off any biases you have. The biggest fear the market has is that the Fed will Paul Vockler us. If you are not sure who that is, then please Google him and watch every documentary you can on him. Jerome Powell for months has been saying how the economy is strong and how it can handle more aggressive actions. Well this GDP report proves that to be false, so the theory is that the Fed will now back down in September. Whether you agree with that or not, it doesn't matter. All that matters is the price action proved that enough folks with money do believe it. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: We gap up above 408. We should see slight move upward and then the RSI will be so overbought that it will be time to pay those taxes at any moment. If we do drop, expect the selling to be intense to 404. Now this will be the big question as to whether the buyers show up. If they do, and the technicals are ok, then it is safe to grab some calls. 
  • Scenario 2: We gap down below 404. This will work out the technicals and see if the buyers show up. If they do, I will look to jump in calls. 
  • Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points). This is a sit back and see if the overbought technicals matter. If we start to fall, I will grab some puts. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 390 > 393 > 396 > 401 > 404.40 > 407 > 410 > 416
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Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Thursday, July 28th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • SPY started very green and just ticked up all day heading into FOMC. 
  • JPow announced the 75 BPS hike and then said some sweet words to the market and we blitzed up to 402. What a ride. 
  • Then in afterhours, META had a weak earnings report. Stage is set for a red day tomorrow. 

What to Expect?

  • Thursday
    • Premarket Earnings - Pfizer, Tilray, MasterCard
    • GDP Data Release at 8:30am EST
    • Afterhours Earnings - Apple, Amazon, Intel, Roku
  • Friday
    • Premarket Earnings - Exxon, Chevron, P&G
    • PCE Inflation Data at 8:30am EST
    • Consumer Spending Data at 8:30am EST
    • Q2 Employment Cost Index at 8:30am EST

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I played calls on the JPow announcment since it matched my bullish scenario. My only error here was not getting a slightly better entry. 
  • Holding all cash.

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We hit overbought on the 30 min, and the 1 hour charts. They are now sitting just under it, but just barely.  The 4 hour chart is getting close to overbought.
  • SPY Technicals - We are now comfortably above the big level at 380 for SPY. We filled the 401 gap and are now 404.40 as the next level. 

WTF is Going On (Version 5)?

  • What is the updated boxing match score for this week?
    • Round 1 went to the bears with WMT news. Round 2 went to the bulls with MSFT and GOOG guidance. I said yesterday that FOMC is worth 3 rounds and I would give it a 2 to 1 favor to the bulls. This is solely in the short term, the report was bearish in the long run. So the bulls have a 3-2 advantage right now on the scorecard for the next trend. Tomorrow we have 3 rounds to award with GDP report, AAPL earnings and AMZN earnings. 
  • Was FOMC bullish or bearish?
    • For weeks I have been saying in these previews that 75 BPS was bullish for the markets. Yes it is a rate hike, yes it is a bearish one. But this was a binary bet between 75 and 100 BPS. The lower number prevailed therefore the market was not in for a surprise. This rate hike was fully priced in. Now as far as the news we got today from Powell, that was extremely bearish imo. But the bearish action was kicked down until the September meeting. That is 2 months now of runway for the market to not have to worry about the Fed, and that is why we saw the rally we did. JPow is going to kick the shit out of this market soon, but today was not the day. 
  • So we are free to buy calls and sit back?
    • No. We have some bearish landmines coming in tomorrow and I think we will see a red day. Bulls have to get through AAPL's earnings unscathed to feel comfortable swinging calls for more than a few hours. Thankfully AAPL reports tomorrow. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: We gap down below 396 due to the GDP release. This will clear up a little of the overbought conditions, but I would be looking at grabbing puts if 396 does not hold. 
  • Scenario 2: We gap up and break over 404 due to the GDP release. I will be looking at puts as we would be extremely overbought again. 
  • Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points) with a negative GDP release. I will most likely wait SPY hits 404 and grab puts again just to play the overbought readings.
  • No swings overnight tomorrow. With AAPL, AMZN and then PCE inflation data in premarket on Friday, you are just guessing by holding honestly. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 390 > 393 > 396 > 401 > 404.40 > 407 > 410 > 416
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Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Wednesday, July 27th Market Preview

Happy FOMC Day!


What Happened?

  • SPY started red and lost the 393 support. It broke down to 390 and caught a minor lift into the close. 
  • Then in afterhours, MSFT and GOOGL reported their earnings. Both missed but did some sweet sweet talking on the conference calls and rallied the market.  Bears everywhere are punching the air. Yet another reminder to not hold anything overnight this week. 

What to Expect?

  • Wednesday
    • Premarket Earnings - Shopify, Boeing, Spotify
    • FOMC Meeting Summary + Rate Hike Decision at 2pm EST. 
    • FOMC Press Conference with Jerome Powell at 2:30pm EST.
    • Afterhours Earnings - Meta, Ford, Qualcomm, Teledoc, Etsy
  • Thursday
    • Premarket Earnings - Pfizer, Tilray, MasterCard
    • GDP Data Release at 8:30am EST
    • Afterhours Earnings - Apple, Amazon, Intel, Roku
  • Friday
    • Premarket Earnings - Exxon, Chevron, P&G
    • PCE Inflation Data at 8:30am EST
    • Consumer Spending Data at 8:30am EST
    • Q2 Employment Cost Index at 8:30am EST

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I played calls like a fool and completely ignored my plan. The day presented me with my Scenario 1 and I completely ignored it... "Scenario 1: We gap down below 393. Sit back and see if it can reclaim it, if it can't play puts to 390. This is probably the most likely scenario given the WMT news. "
  • Holding all cash.

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are neutral on the 30 min, and the 1 hour charts. The 4 hour chart is slightly above neutral.
  • SPY Technicals - We are now comfortably above the big level at 380 for SPY. Next major level I have is 396.33. 

WTF is Going On (Version 3)?

  • Yesterday you said this week was like a boxing match, with the Bears taking Round 1. Who won Round 2?
    • The bears definitely carried the momentum from WMT in afterhours to the entire regular session today. I would say they had it all in the bag until 390 held as support and then MSFT and GOOG's earnings saved the market. Bulls sneak out a win in Round 2 and we are now even. Next event is worth 3 rounds with FOMC and JPow's presser so tomorrow is a big big day. 
  • Why did MSFT go up after missing earnings?
    • The saying in real estate is the three most important things are location, location, location. Well on earnings, the three most important things are guidance, guidance, guidance. And MSFT gave beautiful guidance. Now whether that is going to happen or not is another question, but the fact they put that pressure on themselves was all the market wanted to hear.  
  • It is FOMC Day! What are you looking for?
    • I think 75 BPS is in the bag so that should not shock anyone. The thing I will be watching for is if they tip their hand for September and say 50 BPS is likely. That will cause the market to be setup for a rally. They have a break in August, so the next meeting is in September. That is a long time to not have to worry about the Fed, so that September hint will be key. Side note, at 2pm you will see the market tank immediately and recover instantly. It is an amazing thing to watch so turn on the 1 min charts and. enjoy.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: We gap down below 390. Sit back and see if it can reclaim it, if it can't play puts to 385. (not likely given the afterhours action)
  • Scenario 2: We gap up and break over 393. I will be looking at calls to 396. I will then exit and just wait for FOMC. 
  • Scenario 3: We gap up above 396. I will avoid everything until FOMC. 
  • Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points). I will most likely wait until FOMC and just play the trend.
  • FOMC Scenario 1: 75 BPS and 50 BPS hint, buying calls and riding them into the close. 
  • FOMC Scenario 2: 100 BPS hike, buying puts for a few weeks out and just sitting on them. 

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 383 > 385 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 401 > Valhalla
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Bones Tradez 1 year ago
by: samosa

Tuesday, July 26th Market Preview

What Happened?

  • Choppy day with SPY staying in a range from 394 to 396 all day. This was expected with all the fireworks scheduled for later this week. 
  • Then in afterhours, Wal-Mart drops the bomb on the market and announces a cut to its Q2 forecast just 20 days before its earnings report... Why? I will try and answer this below. 

What to Expect?

  • Tuesday
    • Premarket Earnings - UPS, Coke, GM, GE, McDonalds
    • Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST. 
    • Afterhours Earnings - Google, Microsoft, Enphase, Visa, and Chipotle
  • Wednesday
    • Premarket Earnings - Shopify, Boeing, Spotify
    • FOMC Meeting Summary + Rate Hike Decision at 2pm EST. 
    • FOMC Press Conference with Jerome Powell at 2:30pm EST.
    • Afterhours Earnings - Meta, Ford, Qualcomm, Teledoc, Etsy
  • Thursday
    • Premarket Earnings - Pfizer, Tilray, MasterCard
    • GDP Data Release at 8:30am EST
    • Afterhours Earnings - Apple, Amazon, Intel, Roku
  • Friday
    • Premarket Earnings - Exxon, Chevron, P&G
    • PCE Inflation Data at 8:30am EST
    • Consumer Spending Data at 8:30am EST
    • Q2 Employment Cost Index at 8:30am EST

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I scalped some puts for a small gain just to feel something. I honestly should have just held off but I am an addict. 
  • Holding all cash.

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - We are neutral on the 30 min, and the 1 hour charts. The 4 hour chart is slightly above neutral.
  • SPY Technicals - We are now comfortably above the big level at 380 for SPY. Next major level I have is 396.33. 

WTF is Going On (Version 2)?

  • Wal-Mart did what today?
    • WMT came out and announced a drop in it is Q2 guidance for profits. This sent the stock and other retail giants (TGT, AMZN, COST) tumbling in afterhours. 
  • Why did they randomly announce this now?
    • This is the million dollar question. The easy answer is they wanted to get a head of it and limit the damage from the earnings call on 08/16. That seems ok, but it sent the stock down 9% today, so that didn't seem to work. I have a bat shit crazy theory on this and that in a weird way, this is yet another corporate entity signaling to the Fed to not be so aggressive with the tightening. We know that back in 2018 and even way back in the Volcker era, that Wall St throws tantrums over tighter monetary policy. Is this another version of that? Will this give the Fed pause to not be so aggressive on Wednesday and thus avoiding the hammer that it needs to drop to kill inflation. Again this is just my theory, but I am finding the timing of this to be a little suspect.
  • So with the WMT news, its puts all week now right?
    • No. Think of this week as a boxing match. Today was Round 1, and yes it swayed to the bears at the closing of the round. But it was not a knockout punch. We have a lot of data to get through and a lot conflicting data could start to arise. In the morning UPS, Coke, GE could all report ok earnings. Then you are looking at the CCI at 10am and it comes in at expectations. That gives the Bulls the win in Round 2. Assume nothing this week until Friday. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:

  • Scenario 1: We gap down below 393. Sit back and see if it can reclaim it, if it can't play puts to 390. This is probably the most likely scenario given the WMT news. 
  • Scenario 2: We gap up and break over 397. I will be looking at puts on any trend reversal candle. 
  • Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points). I will most likely wait until 10am and see how that data impacts the market and see if a trend can be identified.
  • This is not Financial Advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 383 > 385 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 401 > Valhalla
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QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 1 year ago
by: samosa

Tuesday 05/10/22 Preview

Going to see if the technicals still matter shortly. We should gap down a little more tomorrow and we will be in oversold territory (finally) on the Indicies on the 30 min and 1 hr charts.
 Conventional thinking would say we see a green day tomorrow with shorts booking profits heading into CPI data on Wednesday morning. But this market is so wild that we could just see more selling. 

I am currently holding QQQ 301c for 05/20. I still believe we get an oversold bounce. Help me manifest this to be true. 
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AMD - Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. 1 year ago
by: samosa

AMD $100 May Not Hold... (per @GeeCee)

$AMD  EV/ ebitda ratio is currently 39x historically it has traded at 20x the last 5 years. TA is great but a little fundamental analysis tells us that $100 level May not hold.
P/e is also around 40x
20220410_124607.jpg 187.24 KB


Get other great fundamentals insight by following 
twitter.com/paperhanding_GC?t=...
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Mentions: AMD
SAVA - Cassava Sciences 2 years ago
by: samosa

Basically, their treatment repairs this altered filamin-A found in the brain with AD patients. After 28 days, their treatment repairs 48% of these altered filamin-A things. This was new data released today. 

So Thursday's data will show whether their treatment shows cognitive improvement in AD patients using the Alzheimer's scale. This is a 9 month data report. The 6 month showed a 10% increase in cognition. So this 9 month readout, has to show improvement from that 6 month mark. And if it shows improvement, that means they are successfully targeting the correct thing with this altered filamin-A treatment. No company has shown any improvements at the 9 month mark.
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TSLA - Tesla 2 years ago
by: samosa

Tesla to recall nearly 300k cars due to cruise control issue

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TWTR - Twitter, Inc. 2 years ago
by: samosa

$TWTR just keeps slowly ticking up and broke past $65 today. Looks like $67 is the resistance and then it should run to $70. Their new revenue model makes me bullish on this until their earnings on 07/22 gives actual value to the new revenue model. But the hype until then should bring a nice steady uptick. 
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TSLA - Tesla 2 years ago
by: samosa

$TSLA broke through the 630 barrier today. Could be nothing stopping it from getting to 690 now. 
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WISH - ContextLogic Inc. 2 years ago
by: samosa

This is feeling more and more like the next big meme stonk
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AMC - AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. 2 years ago
by: samosa

Opened with strong volume today in premarket (06/21), but ended up closing below $56. Still incredible that it is holding these price levels.  
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ZEV - Lightning eMotors 2 years ago
by: samosa

Merger moved to Q2 according to latest filing

Looks like the expected merger combination has been updated to Q2 according to their latest filing. So all.those 03/19 calls are looking dead and in need of a hail mary press release. 
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ZEV - Lightning eMotors 2 years ago
by: samosa

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