What Happened? - 

• SPY range on Wednesday: 371 to 379.
• I had pegged Wednesday as a non-event day with little economic data that would impact the markets too much. I was wrong...
• ADP reports came in hot, with wage rates coming in very hot. OPEC+ agreed to cut production by 2 million barrels a day. And ISM Non-Production came in above expectations. This led to the market to pullback under the 373 support. All was looking good for bears until a big options trade came through for SPX 4500 for Jan 2023. 
• That trade seemed to spark a rally and pushed SPY all the way back to green for the day. It was another gut wrenching punch for the bears.

What Am I Looking Out For This Week?

• Fed Pivot Theory is back and better than ever. I hate every part of this, but the markets are rallying on this optimism so we need to take it serious. The next landmine to stop the optimism is the Jobs data on Friday. 
• Jobs data this week (Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday) will add gas to the fire for the market as all signs are pointing to a hot jobs number with consumer sentiment still strong. Bears need Jobs to stay hot so the Fed can stay comfortable being aggressive. Bulls need a slowing jobs number to put doubts in the Fed's aggressive approach. 
• The DXY and TNX is on watch. If these two breakdown then the markets will keep rallying. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• CORE Position: SPX 3600p for 11/18 - I added to this position when SPY was at 378 and will keep building this position if we keep climbing. 
• Strangle Play - I will do a strangle for SPX at 3pm today in anticipation of Friday's big jobs release in premarket. I will grab both sides slightly out of the money for Friday's expiration date. 
• Scalps - I am getting back into scalp trading as well when the setups merit it. This means waiting until 10:30am and let my intraday Fibs have some data to work with. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?

What Happened? - 

• SPY range. on Tuesday: 372 to 378.
• Another day and another green pump. We gapped up overnight and ran right to 377 after the JOLTS data and just stuck there for most of the day.
• JOLTS data came in under expectations which means jobs could be starting to slowing. This was a bullish reading and it will be interesting to see if the Friday's jobs data aligns with this report.  
• Elon has officially purchased Twitter and that sent Tesla's stock down. I anticipate this selling to continue into the week as the fear now arises that Elon's time will now be split up against 3 major companies. 

What Am I Looking Out For This Week?

• Fed Pivot Theory is back and better than ever. I hate every part of this, but the markets are rallying on this optimism so we need to take it serious. The next landmine to stop the optimism is the Jobs data on Friday. 
• Oil is in the news again as OPEC+ is looking to limit the amount of oil in the upcoming Wednesday meeting.
• Jobs data this week (Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday) will add gas to the fire for the market as all signs are pointing to a hot jobs number with consumer sentiment still strong. Bears need Jobs to stay hot so the Fed can stay comfortable being aggressive. Bulls need a slowing jobs number to put doubts in the Fed's aggressive approach. 
• Ukraine Russia "peace" talks and if they progress to an actual meeting.

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?

What Happened? - 

• SPY range. on Monday: 359 to 368.
• They set the bear trap near the open when the market popped and dropped in the first 10 mins. I expected some choppy waters today, but then the WSJ published an article that said the UN has requested the Fed to back off on interest rate hikes. There was no stopping SPY after this especially with its oversold conditions. 
• It was a low volume trend day with no major economic data to stop a relief rally.

What Am I Looking Out For This Week?

• Fed Pivot Theory is back and better than ever. I hate every part of this, but the markets are rallying on this optimism so we need to take it serious. The Fed will keep coming out and letting the market know that they are not pausing anytime soon, but the market will ignore them. I am now watching whether the market wants to take economic data seriously and we get our first test of that tomorrow with the JOLTS data. 
• TSLA reported delivery numbers and they were all time highs for the company, but below expectations. How will the market react?
  • The market reacted by selling TSLA off. This is one we want to watch tomorrow to see if it can recover. 
• Oil is in the news again as OPEC+ is looking to limit the amount of oil in the upcoming Wednesday meeting.
• Jobs data this week (Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday) will add gas to the fire for the market as all signs are pointing to a hot jobs number with consumer sentiment still strong. Bears need Jobs to stay hot so the Fed can stay comfortable being aggressive. Bulls need a slowing jobs number to put doubts in the Fed's aggressive approach. 
• Ukraine Russia "peace" talks and if they progress to an actual meeting.
• Fear and Panic are in the markets now. Will Capitulation start to happen which will completely throw technicals out the window for a quick moment. 
  • This seems to be on ice for a moment. This will need a catalyst for fear to re-enter the market and it come in the form of hot Jobs data.  

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?

What Happened? - 

• SPY range. on Monday: 359 to 368.
• They set the bear trap near the open when the market popped and dropped in the first 10 mins. I expected some choppy waters today, but then the WSJ published an article that said the UN has requested the Fed to back off on interest rate hikes. There was no stopping SPY after this especially with its oversold conditions. 
• It was a low volume trend day with no major economic data to stop a relief rally.

What Am I Looking Out For This Week?

• Fed Pivot Theory is back and better than ever. I hate every part of this, but the markets are rallying on this optimism so we need to take it serious. The Fed will keep coming out and letting the market know that they are not pausing anytime soon, but the market will ignore them. I am now watching whether the market wants to take economic data seriously and we get our first test of that tomorrow with the JOLTS data. 
• TSLA reported delivery numbers and they were all time highs for the company, but below expectations. How will the market react?
  • The market reacted by selling TSLA off. This is one we want to watch tomorrow to see if it can recover. 
• Oil is in the news again as OPEC+ is looking to limit the amount of oil in the upcoming Wednesday meeting.
• Jobs data this week (Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday) will add gas to the fire for the market as all signs are pointing to a hot jobs number with consumer sentiment still strong. Bears need Jobs to stay hot so the Fed can stay comfortable being aggressive. Bulls need a slowing jobs number to put doubts in the Fed's aggressive approach. 
• Ukraine Russia "peace" talks and if they progress to an actual meeting.
• Fear and Panic are in the markets now. Will Capitulation start to happen which will completely throw technicals out the window for a quick moment. 
  • This seems to be on ice for a moment. This will need a catalyst for fear to re-enter the market and it come in the form of hot Jobs data.  

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?

What Happened? - 

• SPY range: 366 to 357.
• I had mentioned that last week was the most entertaining chop fest of all time. It just feels like SPY is on the verge of collapse and then it comes back up for a little breather. But it finally gave up right at the close on Friday. 
• PCE Core Data came in above expectations at 4.9% vs an expected 4.7%. 
• Ukraine and Russia threw a wild card with possible peace talks. Market moved up on that news, but the Fed fears ended up being too much to ignore and a big move got us under the June lows and the 200 Weekly SMA. 

What Am I Looking Out For This Week?

• TSLA reported delivery numbers and they were all time highs for the company, but below expectations. How will the market react?
• Oil is in the news again as OPEC+ is looking to limit the amount of oil in the upcoming Wednesday meeting. Can Oil hold the SPY up even if Tech giants TSLA and AAPL start to crack?
• Jobs data this week (Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday) will add gas to the fire for the market as all signs are pointing to a hot jobs number with consumer sentiment still strong. Bears need Jobs to stay hot so the Fed can stay comfortable being aggressive. Bulls need a slowing jobs number to put doubts in the Fed's aggressive approach. 
• Ukraine Russia "peace" talks and if they progress to an actual meeting.
• Fear and Panic are in the markets now. Will Capitulation start to happen which will completely throw technicals out the window for a quick moment. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?

What Happened? - 

• SPY range: 359.70 to 367.11.
• This week has been the most entertaining chop fest of all time. It just feels like SPY is on the verge of collapse and then it comes back up for a little breather. But how much more can it take?
• We had a lot of data in the morning with most of it coming in at expectations including the GDP reading. So all eyes were on Bullard who spoke at 9:30am. 
• Bullard gave us a lot of information and he made it very clear that the Fed is not looking to pivot until jobs cool and inflation cools. That sparked the sell off as it was yet another reminder that the Fed Pivot is off in the distance. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

What Happened? - 

• SPY range: 363 to 372.
• What a swing of emotions yesterday. The AAPL news that came out late on Tuesday was going to push the market way down on Wednesday and in premarket we hit 359.50. And then...
• The Bank of England announced they are no longer doing QT and actually pivoting to QE. This was the spark the market needed and we moved higher on the insane theory that JPow could follow B0E's lead and pivot. 
• The relief rally worked out all the oversold conditions on the charts and it stopped short of filling the gap of 373.50. But at least for a day, the bulls can see a green candle on the daily chart again. 
• All eyes are still on AAPL and whether it can hold on to the all important 150 level. A weekly close below this level, and we could see a downward move come fast and hard.

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

What Happened? - 

• SPY range: 360 to 370.
• Another wild day that saw us gapping up in the morning and ran right into 370 again. Then the 10am Consumer Data came out and we saw the DXY and TNX spike due to the strong consumer data. This was all I needed to see to enter puts. 
• The market hit a new SPY YTD low and just kind of lingered around it for hours. No big bounce and also no big breakdown. Interesting to say the least.
• All eyes are still on AAPL and whether it can hold on to the all important 150 level. A weekly close below this level, and we could see a downward move come fast and hard.

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

What Happened? - 

• SPY range: 363 to 370.
• It was a pretty wild day considering all the macro events swirling with the DXY, Bank of England and the 10 Year yield all coming into focus. 
• The DXY and TNX (10 year yield) exploded higher once the Bank of England announced that they are not looking to do any rate hikes until the November 23rd meeting. The consensus throughout in the market was that they would do something to help the GBP from falling more vs the Dollar, but they decided that no change was needed right now. This is pretty shocking to me.
• With that event, I am also pretty surprised that the SPY did not make a new YTD low. This is telling me that if the DXY and TNX cool a little, look out for a nice pop in the markets. 
• All eyes are on AAPL and whether it can hold on to the all important 150 level. A weekly close below this level, and we could see a downward move come fast and hard.

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

What Happened? - 

• Friday was a nasty day for the bulls. The range was 363 to 370 and we had a nice short covering rally in the close. 
• All eyes are on AAPL and whether it can hold on to the all important 150 level. A weekly close below this level, and we could see a downward move come fast and hard.

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

What Happened? - 

• We had chop pretty much all day but did test 373.50 a few times and that seemed to hold as support. Towards the end of the day we got a nice bounce off of that level and ran all the way to 377 in a little over an hour. And then in the last 10 minutes we dropped all the way back down to 374. It was a very interesting close.
• The price action to me though was very important, especially the last 10 mins of the day. We can confidently say that the move from 373.50 to 377 was a technical bounce on a support level. Well, how do you feel comfortable buying the next technical bounce when that one got evaporated in 10 mins. I think the market psychology enters the picture and people will not be very willing to buy the next technical bounce until the June lows are tested. 
• All eyes now are on AAPL. If it starts to breakdown under 150. It is lights out for the market. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

• Friday - PMI Data at 9:45am EST. 
• Friday - JPow with another speech at 2:00pm EST. This is a nothing event to me. But that could spark a small rally if fear is baked into it. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• I am still holding a healthy put position for 10/31. Until we break above 380 or below 373, I don't see the need to sell these puts. I had great entries on them and just need to stick to my thesis. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, and the daily is slightly above an oversold reading. The 4 hour chart is now just in oversold territory. 
• SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. This looks like where we are headed. 
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 
• SPY should see a reaction near 373 and it will be interesting to see if the fundamental tailwinds just push us right through it to test the June lows of 362. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

• Same scenarios as yesterday. I do believe the JPow event is a nothing event, but that doesn't mean the market thinks the same. So if we chop leading into his event, I may look to close my puts and just get out of the way of his speech. Since it won't be a big deal, the market could rally as a relief that he didn't wreck the market. I am still debating this scenario and will know more once we get closer to that 2pm time. 
• Scenario 1: SPY tests or gaps below 373. This could trigger a swift move to the June lows of 362. 
• Scenario 2: SPY bounces and retests 380. This is a fade the rip scenario and will create a good opportunity to enter a put.
• Scenario 3: We consolidate between 375 and 380. This is just a sit back and wait for a level test to make a decision. This could work out some technicals which could make entering puts attractive again. 
• The next major data release that can bring Bulls hope is the PCE data next Friday. I am not seeing anything until then for bulls to hang their hat on. 
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
• This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 362 > 367 > 370 >373 > 375 > 380 > 383 > 387 > 390

What Happened? - 

• We had chop pretty much all day but did test 373.50 a few times and that seemed to hold as support. Towards the end of the day we got a nice bounce off of that level and ran all the way to 377 in a little over an hour. And then in the last 10 minutes we dropped all the way back down to 374. It was a very interesting close.
• The price action to me though was very important, especially the last 10 mins of the day. We can confidently say that the move from 373.50 to 377 was a technical bounce on a support level. Well, how do you feel comfortable buying the next technical bounce when that one got evaporated in 10 mins. I think the market psychology enters the picture and people will not be very willing to buy the next technical bounce until the June lows are tested. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

• Friday - PMI Data at 9:45am EST. 
• Friday - JPow with another speech at 2:00pm EST. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• I am still holding a healthy put position for 10/31. Until we break above 380 or below 373, I don't see the need to sell these puts. I had great entries on them and just need to stick to my thesis. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, and the daily is slightly above an oversold reading. The 4 hour chart is now just in oversold territory. 
• SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. This looks like where we are headed. 
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 
• SPY should see a reaction near 373 and it will be interesting to see if the fundamental tailwinds just push us right through it to test the June lows of 362. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

• Same scenarios as yesterday. I do believe the JPow event is a nothing event, but that doesn't mean the market thinks the same. So if we chop leading into his event, I may look to cover my puts and just get out of the way of his speech. Since it won't be a big deal, the market could rally as a relief that he didn't wreck the market. I am still debating this scenario and will know more once we get closer to that 2pm time. 
• Scenario 1: SPY tests or gaps below 373. This could trigger a swift move to the June lows of 362. 
• Scenario 2: SPY bounces and retests 380. This is a fade the rip scenario and will create a good opportunity to enter a put.
• Scenario 3: We consolidate between 375 and 380. This is just a sit back and wait for a level test to make a decision. This could work out some technicals which could make entering puts attractive again. 
• The next major data release that can bring Bulls hope is the PCE data next Friday. I am not seeing anything until then for bulls to hang their hat on. 
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
• This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 362 > 367 > 370 >373 > 375 > 380 > 383 > 387 > 390

What Happened? - 

• We had chop up until the big event and we dropped fast to 380 on the 2pm data and statement release. The economic projections came in bearish as the fed funds rate for EOY 2022 was raised to 4.4%. Then Powell started talking...
• This was a very informative press conference. The questions were incredible. Powell was doing his best to use bullish buzzwords but saying bearish statements. The market kept trying to blast higher but could never break that 390 level. Then Powell dropped the bomb about wanting a housing correction. We cratered into the close to under 380.  
• What a day, what a day, what day....

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

• Thursday - UK Rate Hike Decision at 7:00am EST
• Thursday - COST and FDX earnings afterhours. 
• Friday - JPow with another speech at 2:00pm EST. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• I entered a strangle and ended up making a nice profit on it, but the magic for me was scaling more into my swing puts for 10/31 on the pops during Powell's speech. I am still holding those puts. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and the daily is slightly above an oversold reading.
• SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. This looks like where we are headed. 
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 
• SPY should see a reaction near 373 and it will be interesting to see if the fundamental tailwinds just push us right through it. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: SPY tests or gaps below 373. This could trigger a swift move to the June lows of 362. 
• Scenario 2: SPY bounces and retests 380. This is a fade the rip scenario and will create a good opportunity to enter a put.
• Scenario 3: We consolidate between 375 and 380. This is just a sit back and wait for a level test to make a decision. This could work out some technicals which could make entering puts attractive again.  
• The next major data release that can bring Bulls hope is the PCE data next Friday. I am not seeing anything until then for bulls to hang their hat on. 
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
• This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 362 > 367 > 370 >373 > 375 > 380 > 383 > 387 > 390

What Happened? - 

• We had a surprise 100 BPS hike from the Swedish Bank and that triggered a gap down. We set a new weekly low to 381 and closed near 384. All in all, this was a choppy few days leading into the main event on Wednesday. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

• Wednesday - Existing Home Sales at 10am EST
• Wednesday - FOMC statement and press conference starting at 2pm.  This is the major event of the week. 
• Thursday - UK Rate Hike Decision at 7:00am EST
• Thursday - COST and FDX earnings afterhours. 
• Friday - JPow with another speech at 2:00pm EST. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• I had a let go of my SPX calls for a nasty loss today and started building a 10/31 3800p position. I will be playing a 1DTE strangle for FOMC.

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and the daily are all neutral. 
• SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 390 is the .236 and 407 is the .382.
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 and 418 is the .286. 
• Technicals are setup for a nice move based on the FOMC data tomorrow. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

What Happened? - 

• Today was basically a repeat of Friday. We started gapping down to 382 area and ended chopping around for most of the day. Then we got a late push at the end of the day to close near 389. 
• This was a bullish close and I anticipate we either test 390 at the open, or gap above it in the futures session before the open. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

• Tuesday - Housing Data with permits and housing starts at 8:30am EST
• Wednesday - EU rate hike decision at 3am
• Wednesday - Existing Home Sales at 10am EST
• Wednesday - FOMC statement and press conference starting at 2pm.  This is the major event of the week. 
• Thursday - UK Rate Hike Decision at 7:00am EST
• Thursday - COST and FDX earnings afterhours. 
• Friday - JPow with another speech at 2:00pm EST. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• I again sold my puts at the open for a nice profit and decided to enter a Call right at the close to play a bounce on Tuesday. I will be out of this position no matter what before Wednesday's FOMC meeting. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and the daily are all neutral. 
• SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 390 is the .236 and 407 is the .382.
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 and 418 is the .286. 
• The all important 390 level will be tested tomorrow. Will we get a rejection or a break? 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:

• I expected chop all day on the indices today and was correct until the final hour of the day. SPY started gaining more momentum and ended up closing at the highs of the day over 388. So I grabbed a call to play the possible 390 break in futures. 
• I anticipate that the bulls will try and push the market above 393 before FOMC. And I believe the bears will actually welcome this pump and get out of the way. 
• FOMC will provide the direction of the market for the next few weeks. Bulls will hope that Powell will be dovish and hint at slowing rate hikes down in his statement and press conference. Bears will hope for Powell to keep the same strong hawkish tone from Jackson Hole and lean on the fact that no new economic data has come out to allow Powell to start slowing rate hikes down. It will be a fascinating day on Wednesday, so it is all about surviving until then. 
• There is no scenario where I will play calls until FOMC.  Apparently, there was a scenario lol. 
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
• This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 380 > 383 > 387 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 404.40

What Happened? - 

• Friday was a big option expiration day and we saw some spurts of volume show up randomly thoughout the day. 
• The range was 382 to 386 with us closing near the highs of the day, however this did not feel like a bullish day as there was no test of the 390 level. 
• All in all, Friday was an outlier type day due to the option expiration volatility and nothing really changed in my thesis. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

• Monday - Nothing
• Tuesday - Housing Data with permits and housing starts at 8:30am EST
• Wednesday - EU rate hike decision at 3am
• Wednesday - Existing Home Sales at 10am EST
• Wednesday - FOMC statement and press conference starting at 2pm.  This is the major event of the week. 
• Thursday - UK Rate Hike Decision at 7:00am EST
• Thursday - COST and FDX earnings afterhours. 
• Friday - JPow with another speech at 2:00pm EST. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• I sold my long term SPX puts for a nice gain at the open and sat on my hands all day. I re-entered some puts at the close for October for 3800. I have a nice amount and will most likely sell before JPow. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour and 4 hour are slightly under an oversold reading. The Daily is neutral. 
• SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 390 is the .236 and 407 is the .382.
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 and 418 is the .286. 
• The 390 level has been broken and we did not test it at all on Friday. I anticipate we do get another test of the 390 level soon, but right now I am focused on whether the market will hold onto the next major level at 380. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

• Monday and Tuesday really seem like a do nothing day. If you are holding puts and you have time on them, then you should be ok even if the market decides to bounce a little above 390. If 393 is recaptured, I may just take the loss on my puts and wait until after FOMC and fade any rip we get on that day. 
• For traders like myself who only play the indices, the start of this week is going to be boring. The traders will want to concentrate on individual tickers to start the week and ignore the indices as they will most likely be chop until Wednesday. 
• There is no scenario where I will play calls until FOMC.  
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
• This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 380 > 383 > 387 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 404.40

What Happened? - 

• We had a lot of data this morning with strong retail sales and strong jobless claims leading the way. 
• The SPY started pretty weak and ended up moving down near 390.20 early in the day. Buyers stepped in near lunch and ripped the market higher to 395 in a few candles. 
• That bounce was the 390 reaction that everyone was waiting on. But unfortunately for bulls, the sellers stepped in and moved us right back down under the key 390 level towards the end of the day. 
• Bulls were able to close the day above 390, but that seems to be gone now thanks to FDX's earnings report. Their guidance was brutal. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

• Friday - Quad Witching Day (OpEx)
• Friday - UoM Consumer Sentiment at 10am

Current Positions and Plays:

• I sold my SPX puts at the end of the day on the 390 break and rolled them into longer dated SPX puts for November. I am anticipating that we just slowly head lower now. The November play is SPX 3730p for 11/30. I will look at grabbing some October puts for 3800 tomorrow if we bounce at all. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour charts are slightly under an oversold reading. The 4 hour and Daily are neutral. 
• SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 390 is the .236 and 407 is the .382.
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 and 418 is the .286. 
• The 390 level has been broken here in the the futures session thanks to the FDX earnings report. This is now looking more likely to test the next big level at 380 before Wednesday's big FOMC meeting. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

• We have quad witching on Friday which can bring a lot of volatility to the market. I am expecting random spurts and ultimately makes predicting a trend for the day really difficult. 
• We should see a gap down at the start of the day based on how the futures have reacted to FDX. I would expect that dip to be temporary and a retest of 390 being possible based on some rebalancing, UoM report and/or options wizardy. Any rip up we get, I will be building an October puts position to hold for a few days next week before FOMC. No real levels here for me that matter, just looking for move upwards and reversal candles to signal entries. 
• There is no scenario where I will play calls until FOMC.  
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
• This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 380 > 383 > 387 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 404.40

What Happened? - 

• It was a pretty choppy day with a lot of mixed opinions. PPI came in a little hotter than expected in the morning on the core side and that led to small dip near the open to just under 392. We began to rally at the close to close near 395. 
• Bulls will lean on the 4 point move near the close as a signal that the all important 390 level will hold. 
• Bears will lean on the fact that we were up less than 1% on a day after we lost 4%. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

• Thursday - Retail Sales Data at 8:30am
• Friday - Quad Witching Day (OpEx)

Current Positions and Plays:

• I started grabbing SPX puts today for 2 weeks out. I am expecting a 390 test to happen by next Wednesday before FOMC. So I do not mind holding until then even if we start to move against the position. We either move down on fear of a 100 BPS hike possibility or we ignore that and then move down on the 75 BPS hike from a hawkish JPow due to Tuesday's CPI release. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour charts are slightly under an oversold reading. The 4 hour and Daily are neutral. 
• SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 390 is the .236 and 407 is the .382.
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 and 418 is the .286. 
• It is all about the 390 level. If that breaks, we are headed down fast. If it holds, more buyers will step in. 
• We got a hint from the Biden Admin that they are looking at buying oil at $80 a barrel to refill the strategic reserves. This is an indicator that oil prices could go up in the winter which is a high inflation tailwind. Also, when oil goes up, tech tends to come down. So keep this in mind with any long term thesis. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: Retail Sales Data comes in good/strong. This will be a bearish event as this signals to the Fed that the economy is still running too hot and they need to kill the demand to get inflation under control. This should move the market down to the 390 target. 
• Scenario 2: Retail Sales Data comes in bad/weak. This could go either way. On one hand the market will see a weak consumer as a recessionary risk. On the other hand, a weaker consumer could be spun that the consumer is weakening so the Fed will not need to be as aggressive. This is a stretch, but it is possible. 
• Scenario 3: Retail Data is a nothing event and the market just consolidates and chops heading into the wild Quad Witching Friday. 
• I am holding my puts until the 390 break. If we hit 397 or 400 before then, I will grab more puts for a little longer out (mid October?) and close out my shorter term ones.  
• There is no scenario where I will play calls until FOMC.  
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
• This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 383 > 387 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 404.40

What Happened? - 

• What a day... CPI came in above expectations on topline and core. That triggered a violent selloff that ultimately ended us going from 414 to 393 in one session. 
• All bullish thesis' took a nasty hit today and the bears are back in control. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

• Wednesday - PPI Data at 8:30
• Thursday - Retail Sales Data at 8:30am
• Friday - Quad Witching Day (OpEx)

Current Positions and Plays:

• My SPX strangle worked beautifully and I exied near the open with a massive profit. I then grabbed puts for a few weeks out and rode it down all the way to the close. This traded ended up making me more than the strangle. Back to all cash. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - The 30 min is now oversold and the 1 hour chart is slightly under an oversold reading. The 4 hour and Daily are neutral. 
• SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 390 is the .236 and 407 is the .382.
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 and 418 is the .286. 
• We got a hint from the Biden Admin today that they are looking at buying oil at $80 a barrel to refill the strategic reserves. This is an indicator that oil prices could go up in the winter which is a high inflation tailwind. Also, when oil goes up, tech tends to come down. So keep this in mind with any long term thesis. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: SPY gets to 396 and starts to face some resistance. I will re-enter my puts as I have a 390 target that we will test before FOMC. 
• Scenario 2: SPY reaches 390 and bounces. I will wait for a reversal signal and if one presents itself on the 15 or 30 min chart, then I will re-enter my puts and ride them until FOMC. 
• Scenario 3: SPY rips higher to and tests 400. I will be waiting on a reversal signal to enter puts. 
• There is no scenario where I will play calls until FOMC.  
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
• This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 383 > 387 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 404.40

What Happened? - 

• July 2022 (Released August 2022) - Topline Number was 8.5%. CPI Core was 5.9%.
• June 2022 (Released July 2022) - Topline Number was 9.1%. CPI Core was 5.9%.
• May 2022 (Released June 2022) - Topline Number was 8.6%. CPI Core was 6.0%.
• April 2022 (Released May 2022) - Topline Number was 8.3%. CPI Core was 6.2%.
• March 2022 (Released April 2022) - Topline Number was 8.5%. CPI Core rate was 6.5%.
• Feb 2022 (Released March 2022) - Topline Number was 7.9%. CPI Core rate was 6.4%.
• Jan 2022 (Released Feb 2022) - Topline Number was 7.5%. CPI Core rate was 6.0%.

• The March 2022 data to April 2022 data saw the first decline on both the Topline and Core for the first time in 2022. This brought the hope that inflation could be peaking, and slowing down. 
• The May 2022 data release (Released June 2022)  saw not only an increase from the previous month, but a Topline number higher than the March 2022 data. This caused the market to hit new lows. 
• The June 2022 data release (Released July 2022) saw a hotter than expected read and the market gapped down 6 points and proceeded to recover most of that loss that day and started an upward trend (July 13th on the charts)
• The July 2022 data release (Released August 2022) saw a cooler read on the top line and sticky core number. This was at the height of the Fed pivot theory and the inflation report backed up that the theory still had a possibility. This caused the market to maintain an uptrend that ultimately led the SPY to test 430 a week later. 

• The estimate for the Topline is 8.1%. The Core is 6.1%.
• So we have a lower estimate on the topline and the core is expected to go up. Tricky, tricky...

• Scenario 1 - CPI comes in above expectations, 8.5%+ on the topline and Core comes in at expectations over 6%
  • Bullish Argument - The argument can be made that inflation has peaked and we are still not setting new highs. So this "sticky" inflation does not make the Fed more aggressive, they just stick to the plan of continuing raising rates. 
  • Bearish Argument - This shows that the Fed's actions have not been able to control inflation and with Core going up, this confirms a current stagflaltion. This should lead to a move downward in the market and a retest of 400 at the time of the data release. 
• Scenario 2 - CPI comes in above expectations on the topline, but flat or down on the Core:
  • Bullish Argument - Core not going up means we are actually seeing results in the Fed's actions and we should see a continued decrease in inflation as long as they continue to raise rates steadily. The rise in the topline could be contributed to international commodity supply issues, which are starting to cool. 
  • Bearish Argument - This is a weak argument to make, but the fact that headline is going up means that the nature of inflation is still out of control and unpredictable. Thus creating a difficult timeline for the Fed to really knowing when to stop being aggressive. 
• Scenario 3 - CPI comes in flat at expectations on the Topline and Core:
  • Bullish Argument - Though the number is greater than the previous month on core, it was expected. Topline coming in at expectations actually sees a decrease from the previous month. This creates the same argument that inflation is sticking and has peaked on the topline. 
  • Bearish Argument - Same bearish argument from Scenario #2 as above with the reading being unreliable. 
• Scenario 4 - CPI comes in below expectations on the Topline and Core:
  • Bullish Argument - Inflation is starting to peak and the Fed's actions are starting to work faster than the market's expectations. Buy calls and enjoy the week. 
  • Bearish Argument - None.

• Short Term Plays
  • Scenario 1, 2 or 3 - Stay on the sidelines and enter to play day to day levels.  Can't be married to one side on this result as the bearish argument is not as valid as the bullish one. 
  • Scenario 4 - Buy calls for a few weeks out as the SPY will retest 415-420 levels.

• Scenario 1, 2 and 3 confirms a 75 BPS hike in September meeting.
• Scenario 4 opens the door to do a 50 BPS hike in the September meeting and again a possibility to pause hikes after the October meeting to see if inflation can start trending downward. 

What Happened? - 

• We gapped down in the morning a few points after the NVDA news in afterhours rocked the market. The selling came in fast and pushed SPY all the way to near 390. This was a critical support for the bulls and it held. 
• The last moments of the day saw a nice short covering rally as folks appear to be de-risking ahead of Friday's big jobs data. 
• All eyes now on the 8:30am EST jobs data release on Friday. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

• Friday - Major Jobs Data at 8:30am - This is the market moving event,

Current Positions and Plays:

• I swung my SPX calls at 396. Then averaged down at 393 and again under 391. The rally at the end of the day allowed me to turn a profit and enter a small put hedge for tomorrow so I can comfortably hold through the jobs data in the morning. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - We soundly worked out all the oversold technicals on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. The 4 hour chart is just above oversold and daily is neutral. 
• SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 407 is the .382 and 390 is the .236. 
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382.
• SPY broke the 396 level. Looking for consolidation and a possible bounce here or at 393. 

Jobs Data Scenarios - Last Month: 528K, Expectations: 300K

• Scenario 1:  We come in under the expected 300k number AND wages come in under or flat. The market will test 400 and could rip higher heading into the holiday weekend. Possible 405 test is in the cards. 
• Scenario 2: We come in over the 300K expectations AND wages come in flat or higher. The market will trend down. I would look for a possible 390 test again. 
• Scenario 3: Jobs come in over 400K. The market will flush under 390 and this will get ugly fast for the next few weeks. 
• Scenario 4: Jobs Data comes in at or near expectations. I would expect the market to trend up heading into the holiday weekend and shorts continue to cover to enjoy the holiday weekend profitable. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: Jobs Data Scenario 1 happens. I will look to sell my calls on a 400 break and let my hedge puts go to zero.
• Scenario 2: Jobs Data Scenario 2 happens. I will hold all my positions and close out my puts near 390. The gains from the puts would cancel the losses from the calls, and I would be able to escape the bad jobs data. 
• Scenario 3: Jobs Data Scenario 3 happens. I will sell my calls fast and ride those puts. I would also look at entering puts for a few weeks out as well. 
• Scenario 4: Jobs Data Scenario 4 happens. This would be the worse case scenario. I would most likely hold my calls and sell my puts since their expiration is on Friday. 
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
• This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

What Happened? - 

• ADP data came in and the market tested over 400 in premarket. It opened up nice and bullish and then fell to pieces. A slow grind down all day say SPY break 396 and close just above 395. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

• Thursday - No major events to me
• Friday - Major Jobs Data at 8:30am - This was the market moving event, but with the current drop, I am not sure now. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• I entered SPX calls at 401, sold them for a loss and grabbed some more SPX calls at 396. Not a good day for me. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - We are oversold on the 1 hour chart and 4 hour chart. The 30 min chart is just above oversold and daily is neutral. 
• SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 407 is the .382 and 390 is the .236. 
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382.
• SPY broke the 396 level. Looking for consolidation and a possible bounce here or at 393. 

Why Will the Market Go Up?

• I think the only thing the bulls have in their favor here are the oversold technicals on the charts. You also need to keep an eye on Oil and the DXY. If those start to fall, then the bulls will get a shot in the arm from tech recovering. 

Why Will the Market Go Down?

• The economy keeps reporting strong data numbers and that is making it very clear that the Fed is not done tightening this market. So with no Fed relief in sight, this is pretty much fade any rip that comes. We have seen it all week so far, and I am not sure there is any data this week that can prevent that. The DXY keeps surging on the international data and if it breaks that 109.20 resistance, the bears will be feasting more on the bulls.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: If we test under 393 tomorrow, I will look at grabbing a few more calls to average down on my position. This is a matter of when not if we bounce now. If that test happens in the morning, and we do get a nice bounce back near 400. I will close out and enter the strangle play for Friday's jobs data. I will look at doing a one or two point out of the money on both sides.  
• Scenario 2: We test 393 and just keep falling to 390: I would have to again consider entering calls here with a few weeks out given the oversold conditions. 
• Scenario 3: We chop all day but hold near 396. I think I would just hold my call position and take the punch in the face. 
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
• This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching