What Happened? - 

• Today was basically a repeat of Friday. We started gapping down to 382 area and ended chopping around for most of the day. Then we got a late push at the end of the day to close near 389. 
• This was a bullish close and I anticipate we either test 390 at the open, or gap above it in the futures session before the open. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

• Tuesday - Housing Data with permits and housing starts at 8:30am EST
• Wednesday - EU rate hike decision at 3am
• Wednesday - Existing Home Sales at 10am EST
• Wednesday - FOMC statement and press conference starting at 2pm.  This is the major event of the week. 
• Thursday - UK Rate Hike Decision at 7:00am EST
• Thursday - COST and FDX earnings afterhours. 
• Friday - JPow with another speech at 2:00pm EST. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• I again sold my puts at the open for a nice profit and decided to enter a Call right at the close to play a bounce on Tuesday. I will be out of this position no matter what before Wednesday's FOMC meeting. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and the daily are all neutral. 
• SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 390 is the .236 and 407 is the .382.
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 and 418 is the .286. 
• The all important 390 level will be tested tomorrow. Will we get a rejection or a break? 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:

• I expected chop all day on the indices today and was correct until the final hour of the day. SPY started gaining more momentum and ended up closing at the highs of the day over 388. So I grabbed a call to play the possible 390 break in futures. 
• I anticipate that the bulls will try and push the market above 393 before FOMC. And I believe the bears will actually welcome this pump and get out of the way. 
• FOMC will provide the direction of the market for the next few weeks. Bulls will hope that Powell will be dovish and hint at slowing rate hikes down in his statement and press conference. Bears will hope for Powell to keep the same strong hawkish tone from Jackson Hole and lean on the fact that no new economic data has come out to allow Powell to start slowing rate hikes down. It will be a fascinating day on Wednesday, so it is all about surviving until then. 
• There is no scenario where I will play calls until FOMC.  Apparently, there was a scenario lol. 
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
• This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 380 > 383 > 387 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 404.40