samosa 23:08 PM - Sep 21 2022

Thursday, September 22nd Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • We had chop up until the big event and we dropped fast to 380 on the 2pm data and statement release. The economic projections came in bearish as the fed funds rate for EOY 2022 was raised to 4.4%. Then Powell started talking...
  • This was a very informative press conference. The questions were incredible. Powell was doing his best to use bullish buzzwords but saying bearish statements. The market kept trying to blast higher but could never break that 390 level. Then Powell dropped the bomb about wanting a housing correction. We cratered into the close to under 380.  
  • What a day, what a day, what day....

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

  • Thursday - UK Rate Hike Decision at 7:00am EST
  • Thursday - COST and FDX earnings afterhours. 
  • Friday - JPow with another speech at 2:00pm EST. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I entered a strangle and ended up making a nice profit on it, but the magic for me was scaling more into my swing puts for 10/31 on the pops during Powell's speech. I am still holding those puts. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and the daily is slightly above an oversold reading.
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. This looks like where we are headed. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 
  • SPY should see a reaction near 373 and it will be interesting to see if the fundamental tailwinds just push us right through it. 


  • Scenario 1: SPY tests or gaps below 373. This could trigger a swift move to the June lows of 362. 
  • Scenario 2: SPY bounces and retests 380. This is a fade the rip scenario and will create a good opportunity to enter a put.
  • Scenario 3: We consolidate between 375 and 380. This is just a sit back and wait for a level test to make a decision. This could work out some technicals which could make entering puts attractive again.  
  • The next major data release that can bring Bulls hope is the PCE data next Friday. I am not seeing anything until then for bulls to hang their hat on. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 362 > 367 > 370 >373 > 375 > 380 > 383 > 387 > 390

Please take the time to rewatch JPow's speech and listen to his answers very carefully.
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Created By: samosa
Created: Jun 22, 2020
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