samosa 22:28 PM - Sep 22 2022

Friday, September 23rd Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • We had chop pretty much all day but did test 373.50 a few times and that seemed to hold as support. Towards the end of the day we got a nice bounce off of that level and ran all the way to 377 in a little over an hour. And then in the last 10 minutes we dropped all the way back down to 374. It was a very interesting close.
  • The price action to me though was very important, especially the last 10 mins of the day. We can confidently say that the move from 373.50 to 377 was a technical bounce on a support level. Well, how do you feel comfortable buying the next technical bounce when that one got evaporated in 10 mins. I think the market psychology enters the picture and people will not be very willing to buy the next technical bounce until the June lows are tested. 
  • All eyes now are on AAPL. If it starts to breakdown under 150. It is lights out for the market. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

  • Friday - PMI Data at 9:45am EST. 
  • Friday - JPow with another speech at 2:00pm EST. This is a nothing event to me. But that could spark a small rally if fear is baked into it. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I am still holding a healthy put position for 10/31. Until we break above 380 or below 373, I don't see the need to sell these puts. I had great entries on them and just need to stick to my thesis. 

What Do I Think?

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, and the daily is slightly above an oversold reading. The 4 hour chart is now just in oversold territory. 
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. This looks like where we are headed. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 
  • SPY should see a reaction near 373 and it will be interesting to see if the fundamental tailwinds just push us right through it to test the June lows of 362. 


  • Same scenarios as yesterday. I do believe the JPow event is a nothing event, but that doesn't mean the market thinks the same. So if we chop leading into his event, I may look to close my puts and just get out of the way of his speech. Since it won't be a big deal, the market could rally as a relief that he didn't wreck the market. I am still debating this scenario and will know more once we get closer to that 2pm time. 
  • Scenario 1: SPY tests or gaps below 373. This could trigger a swift move to the June lows of 362. 
  • Scenario 2: SPY bounces and retests 380. This is a fade the rip scenario and will create a good opportunity to enter a put.
  • Scenario 3: We consolidate between 375 and 380. This is just a sit back and wait for a level test to make a decision. This could work out some technicals which could make entering puts attractive again. 
  • The next major data release that can bring Bulls hope is the PCE data next Friday. I am not seeing anything until then for bulls to hang their hat on. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 362 > 367 > 370 >373 > 375 > 380 > 383 > 387 > 390
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Maverick - 1 year ago
Scenario 3 for Friday.


Created By: samosa
Created: Jun 22, 2020
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