samosa 07:56 AM - Oct 06 2022

Thursday, October 6th Market Preview

What Happened? - 

  • SPY range on Wednesday: 371 to 379.
  • I had pegged Wednesday as a non-event day with little economic data that would impact the markets too much. I was wrong...
  • ADP reports came in hot, with wage rates coming in very hot. OPEC+ agreed to cut production by 2 million barrels a day. And ISM Non-Production came in above expectations. This led to the market to pullback under the 373 support. All was looking good for bears until a big options trade came through for SPX 4500 for Jan 2023. 
  • That trade seemed to spark a rally and pushed SPY all the way back to green for the day. It was another gut wrenching punch for the bears.

What Am I Looking Out For This Week?

  • Fed Pivot Theory is back and better than ever. I hate every part of this, but the markets are rallying on this optimism so we need to take it serious. The next landmine to stop the optimism is the Jobs data on Friday. 
  • Jobs data this week (Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday) will add gas to the fire for the market as all signs are pointing to a hot jobs number with consumer sentiment still strong. Bears need Jobs to stay hot so the Fed can stay comfortable being aggressive. Bulls need a slowing jobs number to put doubts in the Fed's aggressive approach. 
  • The DXY and TNX is on watch. If these two breakdown then the markets will keep rallying. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • CORE Position: SPX 3600p for 11/18 - I added to this position when SPY was at 378 and will keep building this position if we keep climbing. 
  • Strangle Play - I will do a strangle for SPX at 3pm today in anticipation of Friday's big jobs release in premarket. I will grab both sides slightly out of the money for Friday's expiration date. 
  • Scalps - I am getting back into scalp trading as well when the setups merit it. This means waiting until 10:30am and let my intraday Fibs have some data to work with. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?

  • We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week. Check the full calendar here:
  • Jobs Data is the key thing to watch this week. Job numbers need to come in bad for bulls or strong for bears. 
  • Thursday - Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30am. With no major data today, this will be a nice appetizer for tomorrow. 
  • Friday - Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30am. This is the biggest data release of the week. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour is almost overbought. The 4 hour and Daily are neutral.  
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. Bulls got this level back today and it was a very big win for them. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500.
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 358. The bulls need to keep this level.


  • We don't much on the calendar today so we could see a choppy day. I am looking for derisking to happen in the second half of the day. 
  • I will be waiting until 10:30am and see if I can set up some intraday Fibs and try and identify any scalps 
  • At 3pm I will enter a strangle for Friday's job data. Depending on the derisking at the end of the day, I may get an opportunity to close this out profitably before the bell and then re-enter at the close. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 > 373 > 376 > 380 > 383 > 386
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Created By: samosa
Created: Jun 22, 2020
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