Maverick 00:01 AM - Feb 09 2022

1H 2022 Outlook: Bearish v Bullish cases

It's Feb 8, 2022 and SPY is currently 451.

I can see points on both sides, so I thought would be a good exercise to lay them out to reflect.

Bear case
  • US Consumers are running out of credit and free money (probably already have)
  • Supply chain still not worked out and likely to be into 2023 before it is (though it's improving and some companies doing better than others - Apple, AMD)
  • Possible yield curve inversion
  • Inflation must be dealt with - at some point - though not necessarily now.
  • Interest rates will be increased - though they have a long ways to go before they're truly impactful to companies that are sitting on huge piles of cash
  • Tapering of Fed Reserve mechanic will be done in March
  • Fed Reserve tightening (this is the big one, IMO) - coming...at some point.
  • Ukraine/Russia situation (I consider this unlikely to become a war and mostly impacting energy sector)
  • If international markets start to fall over due to rate hikes, etc there may be some cascading effect 
  • These big earnings reports - is this peak earnings (the highest they're going to be for a long time due to factors above)
  • Margin debt at all time highs, scary levels - if this gets triggered, it will be violent move down
  • Another variant of COVID will show up at some point


Bull case
  • Companies have been beating earnings expectations for the most part (there's some big whiffs like FB and NFLX of course).  I think last number was 77% of S&P500 have beaten estimates.
  • There's already been a huge correction in the non-mega-mega cap stuff within the SP500.  If you look around and pretty much anything besides the top 10 companies, they're down by 30-60%.
  • We already know about tapering wrapping up in march.  We already expect several rate increases this year.
  • The big unknown is the balance sheet tightening - but Powell seemed very flexible on that and he knows what it was like to push the sell button last time.  This could go very slowly and have minimal impact.  He will not put in a market order.  He acknolwedged there's a "program running in the background" that handles this.  It's surely looking at moving averages.
  • BItcoin - normally a leading indicator - is moving higher now

We've got the CPI data being released on Thursday/Feb 10.  The market is going to move big one direction or the other, so I'm trying to work out which position I want to take for the next 3 months.
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Comments

samosa - 2 years ago
Next week is going to wild in the $SPY 
Maverick - 2 years ago
I agree.  I'll map out the week's events here.  It'll make the Super Bowl look like a snooze fest.

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Created By: Maverick
Created: Feb 8, 2021
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