Maverick 00:54 AM - Mar 18 2022

Market Update: March 17, 2022

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We nailed it yesterday's looking ahead: stonks.chat/group/7/posts/225

Looking at tonight's chart, I think we're headed to 440 before this slows down.  

What Happened Today (Thursday)
  • SPY showed more strength -- it held the 300MA and recaptured the 250MA today.  It was the Dow in the morning, but Tech showed up to the part and they both contributed equally to the day in the end.
  • Russia carried on doing its strikes and intensifying them.  I didn't see any progress on this front for Ukraine, unfortunately. 
  • Canada Pacific Railway might strike - reuters.com/business/canada-us... - this probably caused some of the spike in MOS today.  Canada is a major supplier to the world of fertilzier.
  • In the end SPY was up +5.50 (+1.25%) - impressive.  That's a 25 point rally off the 416 bottom on TUESDAY. 🤯
  • TRADE: I flipped some SPY around, but I didn't stick to my plan laid out last night, so minimal profit.  I exited $MOS nicely at 6.10 (from 4.94 overnight).  I had a quick AMD flip for 10% because it tempted too much being down almost 5% when everything else was solidly green.

Looking Ahead (Friday)
  • There's no market moving economic events on the calendar for Friday.
  • I regret not buying SPY puts at the close.  We hit 440 as expected - and even went a bit farther to 441 at the close.  It's now in overbought territory and I expect it to come back down.  I had no interest in holding calls overnight, but the close was so damn strong, it scared me off the puts.
  • There's nothing else I'm interested in right now.  Tech needs to cool off for a few days.  AMD could be interesting if it gets out of its slump, despite that broader QQQ does.  I'll be eyeing that.  I'm leaving MOS alone on Friday/weekend.
  • Expect some volatility & volume on Friday -- it's a significant options expiration day.
  • Chart [above]:  SPY is in overbought territory.  JPow did a magical job, but despite his soothing words, he was hawkish and will be bringing small bits of pain every couple months.  We're still in a bear market and that will continue.  If the SPY opens anywhere near 440+, I'll be buying puts for 4/1.  It should pull back several points and consolidate to cool off from this run.

I will be doing some research over the weekend looking for some individual (non-SPY/QQQ) opportunities in the current environment.  I'll post that when I'm done.
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Comments

samosa - 2 years ago
I am going to research aluminum, uranium, and fertilizer this weekend. They put the boom in boomer 🚀🚀🚀

Maverick's Moves

Created By: Maverick
Created: Feb 8, 2021
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I trade SPY, QQQ, and specific story sectors using technical analysis and gut rubs.

I'll post my thoughts and market moves here.

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