Bones Tradez

Bones 16:27 PM - Apr 23 2022

Educational

ORB + EMAs

First part of this is the ORB strat. The second part is using EMAs to add conviction and helping with holding plays longer.

Before getting into that, I use the 8/20 EMAs and VWAP as indicators. I turn the EMAs off at the start of the day. The reason for this is enter plays based off price action/ candle type. Having too many lines on my charts distracts me. I also turn extended hours on as the EMAs and VWAP differ with it on vs off.

1. Chart the high and low of the first 15 min candle. I will use SPY for this example. Using ORB, we get call trigger at 437.23 and put trigger at 433.84.

2. Now I am going to flip over to the 5 min chart and wait for a close above or below the established triggers.
3. I prefer to enter on retests to try and avoid the fakeouts as much as possible. At 10:15 we get a close below our level. At 10:35 we get a retest and close back below our level again. This is optimal entry.

4. Now I am going to flip the EMAs on. The 20 EMA above 8 EMA is bearish. This helps to identify the trend as well. I will still scale at 20%, then predetermined levels using the hourly to create S/R zones. The EMAs help me to identify where to cut runners. In this case, I will cut runners once price closes above the 8 EMA and look to take plays on denial of key levels or the 20 EMA. In this example, we closed above the 20 EMA 1 time.

5. Using the EMAs, we can see bears are in full control. Dont try and fight the trend. We close above the 20 EMA 1 time, but never held this level on a retest.

Bones 20:15 PM - Mar 27 2022

Educational

Complete breakdown from finding a play to execution

Finding Plays:

The first thing I do is create a WL. I use

@unusual_whales

flow to look for high volume OTM cons that are close to expiring. I focus on 3-5 names that have this in common.
Ill use $RBLX from Friday as an example. In this case, we see 3/25 52c are seeing nice volume. (RBLX closed at 50.81 3/24). We also see 3/25 48p getting hit. Calls are $1.2 OTM while puts are $2.8 OTM and they expire the next day. Shows me big play potential is there.

I also use the flow to select which strikes I am going to play. In this case, over 51.8 I will take the 52c and under 49.7 I will play the 48p.
Creating Triggers:

I use the 20-25% method to calculate a range to look in for triggers. The last 7 trading periods had an average range of 4.7.

4.7 x .2= .94
4.7 x .25= 1.18
Now Im going to add/subtract those numbers from the closing price of 50.81 to give a range.

Call trigger range: 51.75- 51.99
Put trigger range: 49.63- 49.87

This gives me the range to look in. Next im going to look at levels in order to decide on the triggers
Levels:

Im going to start with the hourly to find levels that have acted as both support and resistance (the more times the better), while also keeping in mind the call/ put trigger ranges we just found. Once I have found levels, I will fine tune them using the 15 min chart
Notice how many times the 49.7 level acted as both support and resistance. The 51.8 also act as support and resistance before falling off. They are both within the 20-25% range as well.

Based on that, I decided on triggers of
Over 51.8 | under 49.7

Now that we have our triggers, time to plan the trade out. I use the hourly chart to look for levels where I am going to scale. I set these as price targets so I am prepared for the trade. The levels Im looking for are the big picture levels.

If my levels are gapped above/ below, I will use the ORB strat. Using the 15 min candle high and low as call/put triggers

$NIO is an example of this from Friday

Video on ORB strat:
https://youtube.com/watch?v=uTkI6sLuSbs&t=4s

Execution:

I already have my triggers set, targets in play, and strikes selected. Now its time to execute. I use the 5 min chart. I am waiting for a 5 min candle (assess the candle type) close above or below the triggers.
In this example, the opening candle closes significantly below my put trigger, so im going to wait on a retest. We get the retest, and cant close above the level so this is my entry.

Psych behind why entering here:

1. high vol bearish candle to open, shows me bears are in control
2. Retest the put trigger but cannot close above
3. I have risk management. If it reverses, oh well Im only losing what I predetermined as risk (10% of the position)

Once I have entered into the contracts, I set a SL right away. I use a 10% hard stop. Use what works for you

More info on the technicals of entering, setting stop losses, etc
Scaling:

I scale in 1/3. First at 20%, second at my next assessed level, and lastly runners.

In this case, the 20% comes much faster than the target at 48.7, so I scale my first third here. Second scale is now going to be at the 48.15 target. Last 1/3 will be runners
On runners, I like to keep my stop loss at 20-30% and then adjust from there. This way I dont have much to worry about anymore. If I get stopped out, no worries. If it runs more, I can adjust my stop loss and trail them.
Sizing:

I dont ever size over 10% of my account on a single play, however, if youre a smaller account this is harder to do. Say I have a 500 account I would only use 20-25% of my account on 1 play (100-150). This mitigates risk and also allows for more DT with the settled cash
If you are trading on WeBull, this means you have 3 more DTs left as long as it is settled cash. Make sure you still have risk management in place!
If you dont have WeBull, I would recommend switching today!

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Rinse and Repeat. This is my strat that has worked for me. It works because it is repeatable and doesnt matter what type of market. The keys are entries, exits, finding plays, and RISK MANAGEMENT. Loses are going to happen. Dont let a little loss turn big