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Wednesday, August 31st Market Preview
What Happened? -
- We had a bullish move in premarket where SPY actually tested 407. But by the open we were near 403 and hung out near there until the 10am data release.
- At 10am, you got strong Consumer Confidence Data and JOLTS openings came in hot and that sent us down below 400 and we hit our 396 target.
What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?
- To see all the events, check out our new Calendar page! stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
- Wednesday - EU Inflation Data at 5am (DXY implications)
- Wednesday - ADP Jobs Info at 8:15am EST
- Thursday - No major events to me
- Friday - Major Jobs Data at 8:30am - This is the market moving event
Current Positions and Plays:
- I sold my SPX calls for a nasty loss, but switched over to puts on the 10am data release and got myself a nice green day.
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - We are still oversold on the 1 hour chart. The 30 min chart and 4 hour is just above oversold and daily is neutral.
- SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 407 is the .382 and 390 is the .236.
- SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382.
- SPY broke the 400 level and we got bounce/ consolidation at that or 396.
- If we consolidate near 396, I am thinking we could see a flush down IF the jobs data is hot on Friday.
- If we bounce off of 396, I could see a test to 410 if Jobs data is cool on Friday.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:
- Scenario 1: I am looking at the ADP data and seeing if it can't give a hint at the jobs data on Friday. ADP jobs have been revised on how they calculate their data so how accurate is it and does the market care? I am not looking at trading at all, and will just study the chart to make my play for Friday ironclad.
- It looks like Friday is the day to play anything. So survival until then will be key for me this week.
- NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this.
- This is not financial advice
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413
- $QQQ - levels 290 > 293 > 296 > 300 > 302 > 308 > 313 > 318 > 320

Tuesday, August 30th Market Preview
What Happened? -
- We had a small gap down and basically chopped around from 401.50 to 405 all day. We opened at 402.20 and closed at 402.60. So no trend could be identified today. Are we headed lower, or are we going to bounce? This probably won't be answered until Friday's Job data, so temper expectations on any major moves before hand.
What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?
- To see all the events, check out our new Calendar page! stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
- Tuesday - JOLTS Jobs Opening at 10am
- Tuesday - Consumer Confidence Data at 10am
- Wednesday - EU Inflation Data at 5am (DXY implications)
- Thursday - No major events to me
- Friday - Major Jobs Data at 8:30am - This is the market moving event
Current Positions and Plays:
- I sold my SPX put for a nice profit and scalped some puts for a few more gains to add to the day. Then... I gave it all up by grabbing calls near 404.50 after I realized the Brainard speech had nothing to do with the market. This started awesome, and then we sold off at the end of the day and it took all my daily gains.
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - We are still oversold on the 1 hour chart. The 30 min chart and 4 hour is just above oversold and daily is neutral.
- SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618.
- SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
- SPY is approaching the key 400 level. I expect a bounce/ consolidation at that or 396.
- If we consolidate near 396, I am thinking we could see a flush down eventually.
- If we bounce off of 396, I could see a test to 410.
- QQQ Technicals - We are still oversold on the 1 hour chart. The 30 min chart and 4 hour is just above oversold and daily is neutral.
- QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382.
- QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support.
- QQQ is approaching the key 300 level. I expect a bounce/ consolidation at that level
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:
- Scenario 1: I am looking at a 400 test and waiting to see what the reaction will be there. We got near it today and the buyers stepped in at 401.50 but couldn't keep the chart above the 404 level. So I am looking to see if we can get a sustainable bounce off that level to 407. Otherwise it looks like chop all week.
- Scenario 2: We break under 400 and 396. Then we consolidate. If this happens, the chart could flush down on hot jobs data on Friday.
- It looks like Friday is the day to play anything. So survival until then will be key for me this week.
- NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this.
- This is not financial advice
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413
- $QQQ - levels 290 > 293 > 296 > 300 > 302 > 308 > 313 > 318 > 320

Monday, August 29th Market Preview
What Happened? -
- Heading into Friday, the big question that everyone was asking for weeks was the Fed still feared and did JPow have the power still to move the markets down. Well, we got our answer after just an 8 minute speech from JPow took the market from 420 to 405 in one trading day.
- The tide has certainly shifted and there is bearish sentiment all over the place.
What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?
- To see all the events, check out our new Calendar page! stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
- Monday - Brainard Speech at 2:15pm.
- Tuesday - JOLTS Jobs Opening at 10am
- Wednesday - EU Inflation Data at 5am (DXY implications)
- Thursday - No major events to me
- Friday - Major Jobs Data at 8:30am - This is the market moving event
Current Positions and Plays:
- I completely messed up my straddle play on Friday. Got myself in a hole, but fought my way out of it. Best thing I could have was nothing.
- I am holding a SPX put over the weekend and plan on selling it at the open on Monday.
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - We are now oversold on the 30 min chart and 1 hour chart. The 4 hour is just above oversold and daily is neutral.
- SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618.
- SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
- SPY is approaching the key 400 level. I expect a bounce/ consolidation at that or 396.
- If we consolidate near 396, I am thinking we could see a flush down eventually.
- If we bounce off of 396, I could see a test 410.
- QQQ Technicals - We are now overbought on the 30 min chart, and slightly under overbought on the 1 hour chart. The 4 hour and daily are neutral.
- QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382.
- QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support.
- QQQ is approaching the key 300 level. I expect a bounce/ consolidation at that level
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:
- Scenario 1: We test 400. I will sell my puts and sit back and see what the charts do. If we break under and test 396, I am again sitting tight and seeing what the chart will do.
- Scenario 2: We never test 400. I will wait and see how high we can get and fade the rip. I know we are testing 400 eventually.
- NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this.
- This is not financial advice
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 390 > 393 > 396 > 400 > 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413
- $QQQ - levels 290 > 293 > 296 > 300 > 302 > 308 > 313 > 318 > 320

Friday, August 26th Market Preview
What Happened? -
- We had a nice green start to the day. The key for me was to watch NVDA and see if it could recover from its drop from its earnings report. It did recover and the market gave a big hint as to what the daily trend would be.
- SPY hit 417.50 in the morning and then retested the 415 level before ripping up after 1pm. It was nonstop buying and push SPY all the way to 419.51 at the close.
- Friday is the main event, and I think we got a little hint as to what is coming.
What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?
- We got a busy week ahead. To see all the events, check out our new Calendar page! stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
- Friday - PCE Inflation Data at 8:30am
- Friday - Consumer Spending Data at 8:30am
- Friday - Jerome Powell Speaks at 10am
Current Positions and Plays:
- With the bullish move, I was able to get out of my SPX calls with little to no damage. That was a HUGE win for me after being underwater all week on them.
- I am holding a straddle play now for SPX.
What Do I Think?
- Note 2 Fundamental events tomorrow will make the technicals less important, so keep that in mind with the overbought conditions.
- SPY Technicals - We are now overbought on the 30 min chart, and slightly under overbought on the 1 hour chart. The 4 hour and daily are neutral.
- SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618.
- SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
- 200 SMA is at 431.57. This is a big level to jump over and has now proven to be the possible top resistance of this bear market rally.
- QQQ Technicals - We are now overbought on the 30 min chart, and slightly under overbought on the 1 hour chart. The 4 hour and daily are neutral.
- QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382.
- QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:
- It is showtime. PCE and JPow... So we need to break up this day in 2 parts.
- Part 1 - PCE Data at 8:30am
- Scenario 1: PCE Core and Topline come in under the previous months (cold reading). We should see a move upward at the open and break the 420 or 422 wall before JPow.
- Scenario 2: PCE Core and Topline come in above the expectations (hot reading). This should send us back to 415 by the open.
- Scenario 3: PCE Core and Topline come in muted or mixed (one hot, one cold). We open up flat and await JPow to move the markets.
- Part 2 - JPow's speech
- Scenario 1: PCE Data is cold and JPow "talks" hawkish but provides no new details on his tightening plan. SPY will rocket up to over 425
- Scenario 2: PCE Data is hot and JPow comes in with a hawkish tone AND provides new aggressive details on his tightening plan. SPY will crater to test a possible 410 support.
- Scenario 3: PCE Data is muted and JPow comes in with a wait and see approach. I think this will be a bullish move, but it will not create an impulsive move upward. This would be the worst case scenario for my straddle as we will chop and stay rather flat.
- Here is hoping that Scenarios 1 or 2 happen for Part 1 and Part 2. Otherwise my straddle is toast.
- NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431
- $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 318 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 330 > 338

Thursday, August 25th Market Preview
What Happened? -
- We opened again flat, and it was mostly a choppy day. There was again a pop near the open to 415, but the sellers came in batted it back down to 413. We just hung around that level until the end of the day.
- NVDA reported their earnings and their forecast came in weak. This led to a slide in afterhours.
- All this flat action is setting up for a major move on Friday. One more day to get through.
What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?
- We got a busy week ahead. To see all the events, check out our new Calendar page! stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
- Thursday - GDP Growth Rate at 8:30am
- Thursday - TSLA's 3 to 1 stock split goes into effect
- Friday - PCE Inflation Data at 8:30am
- Friday - Jerome Powell Speaks at 10am
- It is all about Friday. Those two items have an opportunity to spark a rally.
Current Positions and Plays:
- I again had an opportunity to get out of my calls with minimal damage and again held through the pop and drop. I am looking for a bounce over 416 to exit before Friday.
- I am looking at doing a straddle or strangle play for Friday expiration on SPY. I will enter this at 3:15pm EST. My plan is to grab a call and put that is about $2 or $3 out of the money for Friday's expiration. One will die, and one should payout. Looking for the winner to be above 200%.
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - We are out of oversold on the 30 min chart, 1 hour chart and are now neutral. We are barely out of oversold on the 4 hour chart. The daily are neutral.
- SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618.
- SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
- 200 SMA is at 431.57. This is a big level to jump over and has now proven to be the possible top resistance of this bear market rally.
- QQQ Technicals - We are out of oversold on the 30 min chart, 1 hour chart and are now neutral. We are barely out of oversold on the 4 hour chart. The daily are neutral.
- QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382.
- QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support. This did not hold up at all today. I expect we revisit this level on Tuesday.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:
- I am sorry for the repetitive nature of these previews, but we have just been in the same zone all week.
- Scenario 1: We gap down under 410. We should see 410 being defended a bit so I expect a bounce here. I will just hold my calls and wait for the bounce.
- Scenario 2: We gap up above 416. I would look for a rejection point near 418, sell my calls here and play my strangle play for Friday.
- Scenario 3: We open flat. Just sit back and see if the QQQ can hold 315.50. If it does, then we have a potential bounce back to 416.
- My confidence level on the 3 scenarios above is low, so the best approach is not trade until Friday. There is no real A+ setup presenting itself for a swing entry right now.
- NOTE: Friday morning is presenting a good momentum opportunity with the PCE and JPow events.
- NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431
- $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 318 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 330 > 338

Wednesday, August 24th Market Preview
What Happened? -
- We opened Tuesday flat, and it was mostly a choppy day. There was one pop near the open to 415, but the sellers came in batted it back down to 412.
- QQQ continues to slide down. DXY and oil are on the move up.
What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?
- We got a busy week ahead. To see all the events, check out our new Calendar page! stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
- Wednesday - Durable Goods Orders at 8:30am
- Wednesday - NVDA Earnings afterhours
- Thursday - GDP Growth Rate at 8:30am
- Thursday - TSLA's 3 to 1 stock split goes into effect
- Friday - PCE Inflation Data at 8:30am
- Friday - Jerome Powell Speaks at 10am
- It is all about Friday. Those two items have an opportunity to spark a rally.
Current Positions and Plays:
- I had an opportunity to get out of my calls on the morning pop, and decided to hold out for the 416 test. It never came and back down we went. I am looking at 412 as support. If that breaks, I will just take the L on the calls and wait until Thursday to load up my strangle play for Friday.
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - We are out of oversold on the 30 min chart. We are still oversold on the 1 hour chart. The 4 hour and daily are neutral.
- SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618.
- SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
- 200 SMA is at 431.57. This is a big level to jump over and has now proven to be the possible top resistance of this bear market rally.
- QQQ Technicals - We are out of oversold on the 30 min chart. We are still oversold on the 1 hour chart. The 4 hour and daily are neutral.
- QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382.
- QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support. This did not hold up at all today. I expect we revisit this level on Tuesday.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:
- Scenario 1: We gap down under 410. We should see 410 being defended a bit so I expect a bounce here. I will just hold my calls and not enter any new positions.
- Scenario 2: We gap up above 416. I would look for a rejection point near 418, sell my calls here and will enter puts to swing until Thursday.
- Scenario 3: We open flat. Just sit back and see if the QQQ can reclaim 315.50. If it does, then we have a potential bounce back to 416.
- My confidence level on the 3 scenarios above is low, so the best approach is not trade until Friday. There is no real A+ setup presenting itself for a swing entry right now.
- NOTE: Friday morning is presenting a good momentum opportunity with the PCE and JPow events.
- NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431
- $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 318 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 330 > 338

Tuesday, August 23rd Market Preview
What Happened? -
- We gapped down again on Monday to open around 417. The selling did not stop and we tested sub 413 and closed at 413.35.
- We honored really no levels on the way down, and it broke a few levels a little too easily imo.
What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?
- We got a busy week ahead. To see all the events, check out our new Calendar page! stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
- Tuesday - International PMI data in premarket and US New Home Sales at 10am
- Wednesday - Durable Goods Orders at 8:30am
- Wednesday - NVDA Earnings afterhours
- Thursday - GDP Growth Rate at 8:30am
- Friday - PCE Inflation Data at 8:30am
- Friday - Jerome Powell Speaks at 10am
- It is all about Friday. Those two items have an opportunity to spark a rally.
Current Positions and Plays:
- I was expecting a retest of 420 today and we never got it. I fumbled away the biggest day gain I have had in 2 years by selling my SPX puts Friday at the close. I did close out my QQQ puts today for a 30% win. I am now holding a few SPX calls as I am looking for a Turnaround Tuesday.
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - We are now oversold on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. The 4 hour and daily are neutral.
- SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618.
- SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
- 200 SMA is at 431.57. This is a big level to jump over and has now proven to be the possible top resistance of this bear market rally.
- SPY never retested 420 today, which is kind of surprising. I will look for a 416 level break on the next move up. If we start weak again on Tuesday, looking for a 410 test and then a bounce.
- QQQ Technicals - We are now oversold on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. The 4 hour and daily are neutral.
- QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382.
- QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support. This did not hold up at all today. I expect we revisit this level on Tuesday.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:
- Scenario 1: We gap down under 410. We should see 410 being defended a bit so I expect a bounce here. I will just hold my calls and not enter any new positions.
- Scenario 2: We gap up above 416. I would look for a rejection point near 418, sell my calls here and will enter puts to swing until Thursday.
- Scenario 3: We open flat. Just sit back and see if the QQQ can reclaim 315.50. If it does, then we have a potential bounce back to 416.
- NOTE: Friday morning is presenting a good momentum opportunity with the PCE and JPow events.
- NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431
- $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 318 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 330 > 338

Monday, August 22nd Market Preview
What Happened? -
- I was off on Friday, so I apologize for not doing a preview.
- The bull trap was set on Thursday at the close and we gapped down at the open. The market could never recover and we closed near 422.
- Bears finally got a win after a brutal few weeks.
What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?
- We got a busy week ahead. To see all the events, check out our new Calendar page! stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
- Monday - No major economic events.
- Tuesday - New Home Sales at 10am
- Wednesday - Durable Goods Orders at 8:30am
- Wednesday - NVDA Earnings afterhours
- Thursday - GDP Growth Rate at 8:30am
- Friday - PCE Inflation Data at 8:30am
- Friday - Jerome Powell Speaks at 10am
- It is all about Friday. Those two items have an opportunity to spark a rally.
Current Positions and Plays:
- I closed out my SPX puts at the close on Friday. The only reason I did was to re-enter with more ITM puts. I had SPX 4100 puts for 09/16 and I would rather have 4150 or 4200 puts. I will look to enter those on any pop in the market.
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - We worked out all the overbought technicals on Friday. The 4 hour and daily are neutral. While the 30 min and 1 hour are close to oversold.
- SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618.
- SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
- 200 SMA is at 431.57. This is a big level to jump over and has now proven to be the possible top resistance of this bear market rally.
- SPY seems to be gravitating to the 420 support will be a big level to watch. Look for a stop loss raid near that level.
- QQQ Technicals - We worked out all the overbought technicals on Friday. The 4 hour and daily are neutral. While the 30 min and 1 hour are close to oversold.
- QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382.
- QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support.
- Keep an eye on the 320 level
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:
- Scenario 1: We gap down under 420. We should see 420 being defended a bit so I expect a retest of 420. If it rejects, look for puts to 416.
- Scenario 2: We gap up above 424. I would look for a rejection point near 425 and will enter puts to swing until Thursday.
- Scenario 3: We open flat. Just sit back and look for the 420 level to be tested. We should see a bounce off of it, so play the Fibs and scalp away.
- NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431
- $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 318 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 330 > 338

Thursday, August 18th Market Preview
What Happened? -
- It was a big day for economic data. UK inflation data came in higher than expected. EU GDP came in slightly lower and US Retail Sales came in slightly higher. The market opened red and chopped around a bit until the FOMC Minutes release.
- The minutes release saw its normal spiked action and it appeared as if the market was headed back to 430 shortly after the release. But as the algos digested the info, the seller s showed up and pushed us down from 429 to 427. More importantly, QQQ was unable to hold the 330 level.
What to Expect on Thursday?
- Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30am - Not a big event
- Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 8:30am
- Existing Home Sales at 10am - this one could set the tone for the day.
Current Positions and Plays:
- I have some SPX puts for Sept, and QQQ puts for December. I am as bearish as you can get. These turned green today and I am looking at riding them to SPY 420.
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - We worked out some technicals today. The 4 hour and daily are nearly overbought. While the 30 min and 1 hour are neutral.
- SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618.
- SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
- 200 SMA is at 431.57. This is a big level to jump over.
- SPY seems to be gravitating to the 427
- QQQ Technicals - We worked out some technicals today. The 4 hour and daily are nearly overbought. While the 30 min and 1 hour are neutral.
- QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382.
- QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support.
- Keep an eye on the 330 level
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:
- Scenario 1: We gap down under 423. I would look for SPY to retest 425 and then head lower. We are getting to the end of a rally so I expect a stop loss raid to happen at certain levels if the buyers cannot successfully get back over the key levels. A flush could happen at any moment when the volume shows back up. We got some gaps to fill on the down side.
- Scenario 2: We gap up above 429. I would sit back and see if SPY can break 431. If it can, that would be a bullish indicator that the rally is not over just yet. We need a catalyst to get us over the this major level.
- Scenario 3: We open flat. Just sit back and set your intraday Fibs and scalp away. This is a scalpers market for the next few sessions.
- NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431 > 433
- $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 318 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 330 > 338

Wednesday, August 17th Market Preview
What Happened? -
- On Tuesday, we opened slightly down and the market broke under 427 for a brief moment. Then recovered to set another high in this trend to 431.80. And then it dropped rapidly 3 points. It ran right into the 200 SMA before it reversed.
What to Expect on Wednesday?
- UK Inflation Data at 2:00am EST
- EU GDP data at 5:00am EST
- Retail economic data at 8:30am EST
- FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST
- TGT has earnings in premarket.
Current Positions and Plays:
- I have some SPX puts for Sept, and QQQ puts for December. I am as bearish as you can get. These are red at the moment, and I rolled the August ones into the September ones.
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - We are nearly overbought in the 30 min and 1 hour, and are overbought on the 4 hour and on the Daily.
- SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618.
- SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
- 200 SMA is at 431.57. This is a big level to jump over.
- QQQ Technicals - We are nearly overbought in the 30 min and 1 hour, and are overbought on the 4 hour and on the Daily.
- QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382.
- QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:
- Scenario 1: Retail Data is strong (stronger economy), we will see chop heading into FOMC minutes at 2pm. If the minutes come out hawkish with no neutral rate talk, then I expect a sharp move downward possibly to 420.
- Scenario 2: Retail data is weaker, we will see chop heading into FOMC minutes at 2pm. If the minutes come out dovish and hint at a pause in hikes, the market is going to run to 440.
- NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431 > 433
- $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 316 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 338

Tuesday, August 16th Market Preview
What Happened? -
- On Monday, we opened slightly red and again the market bought the dip on low volume. SPY moved to an incredible 429 before facing some resistance there.
What to Expect on Tuesday?
- Housing economic data at 8:30am.
- WMT has earnings in premarket.
- NOTE: Wednesday is the big economic data data day with Retail Sales and FOMC Minutes.
- We have to keep an eye on 2 things, DXY and Oil. If the DXY goes up, that normally means commodities go down. If commodities go down, that helps keep inflation under control. If the DXY starts to drop, Oil will go higher and that will push us to a higher inflation reading in the future. But... DXY going up also does not help equities, so the DXY is going to be the key for me going forward.
- Fed Speakers for this week:
Current Positions and Plays:
- I have some SPX puts for August, Sept, and QQQ puts for December. I am as bearish as you can get. These are red at the moment, but the only one worrying me is the
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - We are overbought on the 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and on the Daily.
- SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618.
- SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
- QQQ Technicals - We are overbought on all the major charts, 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and on the Daily.
- QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382.
- QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:
- Scenario 1: We gap down to 425 due to WMT's earnings. I would look to hold my puts and maybe trim near the 423 mark if it drops. If we recover, I will hold my puts heading into Wednesday's big economic data.
- Scenario 2: We open flat. Just sit back and wait for SPY to test 430 and see how it reacts to it.
- Scenario 3: We gap up due to WMT's strong earnings. This will be a tough pill to swallow, but it would also put us in an extreme overbought scenario. I would look to cut my short term August puts if SPY broke 433.
- NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431 > 433
- $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 316 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 338

Monday, August 15th Market Preview
What Happened? -
- On Friday, the market moved to an incredible 427 with a slow uptick. Note it was the lowest volume day of the year.
What to Expect on Monday?
- No major economic data on Monday.
- WMT has earnings on Tuesday in premarket so keep that in mind if you plan on swinging anything.
- NOTE: Wednesday is the big economic data data day with Retail Sales and FOMC Minutes.
- We have to keep an eye on 2 things, DXY and Oil. If the DXY goes up, that normally means commodities go down. If commodities go down, that helps keep inflation under control. If the DXY starts to drop, Oil will go higher and that will push us to a higher inflation reading in the future. But... DXY going up also does not help equities, so the DXY is going to be the key for me going forward.
- Fed Speakers for this week:
Current Positions and Plays:
- I have some SPX puts for August, Sept, and QQQ puts for December. I am as bearish as you can get.
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - We are overbought on the 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and on the Daily.
- SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618.
- SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.

- QQQ Technicals - We are overbought on all the major charts, 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and on the Daily.
- QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382.
- QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:
- Scenario 1: We gap down to 424. I would expect a jump up from here and it will ultimately pullback down. So I will look to get out of my August puts near the open and wait for the rejection after the pump to re-enter some more puts for September.
- Scenario 2: We open flat. Just sit back and wait for SPY to test 430. No reason to be in a hurry to enter any puts today. I can't do calls.
- NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431
- $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 316 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 338

Friday, August 12th Market Preview
What Happened? -
- PPI came in lower on the headline number and lower on the Core. This confirmed the CPI reading was not a one of.
- SPY rocketed up to 425 and got us in a way over extended and we pulled back to under 420 near the close.
- We are still at major resistance on the QQQ and SPY. This rally looks to be topping.
What to Expect on Friday?
- We have UoM data at 10am. The last few weeks when this data was released, it has cause a positive pop in the market. I expect the same thing to happen today.
- We have to keep an eye on 2 things, DXY and Oil. If the DXY goes up, that normally means commodities go down. If commodities go down, that helps keep inflation under control. If the DXY starts to drop, Oil will go higher and that will push us to a higher inflation reading in the future. But... DXY going up also does not help equities, so the DXY is going to be the key for me going forward.
Current Positions and Plays:
- I have some SPX calls as I think we have about 2% left on this rally. I grabbed it near the 421 level on average.
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - We are neutral on the 30 min, 1 hour, and almost overbought on the 4 hour and on the Daily.
- SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618.
- SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236. I still hated every second of this @mcarter.

- QQQ Technicals - We are just outside of overbought on all the major charts, 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and on the Daily.
- QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382.
- QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support.

WTF is Going On (Repeat)?
- CPI has been released so where are we headed?
- This is the billion dollar question. First we need to answer a few questions.
- Why we moved up on a CPI reading that is still at 8.5%?
- Two words sums up why we moved up, New Data. The market has the old data, the higher data and is going to react to updated data. And the inflation data came down, and more importantly the core came in flat from the previous month's number. Peak inflation narrative now has data to back it up. Fed's current rate hike plan now has data to back it up. So more importantly this puts ice on any emergency rate hikes or 100 BPS hikes in September.
- Is that CPI Reading enough to move us up any further?
- This was the big data release for this month. Inflation is the key thing the Fed is focused on controlling. So yes this CPI number offers optimism in the Fed's plan. So will it be enough to break over some technical resistance? That is what I am looking for. There is a lot of money on the sidelines, and does this start bringing that money back into the market. I think if SPY closes the week over 420, it is a big bullish win.
- Ok, so what can bring us lower?
- We will answer this question that no black swan events come in. We have the PPI tomorrow morning and that can pour some cold water on the market, but it is not a major data release. The next major landmine is looking like the statement out of the Jackson Hole Symposium from JPow at the end of this month on the week of the 22nd. Then we have PCE data afterwards. Bears only have technical resistances now to hang their hat on. We are overextended on the charts and it is ripe for a major pullback. But until that starts, don't guess on it. I lost $10k guessing it for the last two weeks.
- So what is your plan?
- I am watching QQQ like a hawk. If we break above 327, then I am going to play calls up to 335. When we hit that mark I will start to build a long term short position since the VIX will be low. This market will cool off and face reality that the bear market is not over due to QT and more Fed tightening. I don't know when exactly it is coming down, so I will make sure to give myself enough time. If we start to reject heavy at 327 and can't break over it, then I will play the downside as the current resistance at 327 is valid.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:
- Scenario 1: We open up flat (+/- 1 or 2 points) - Sit back and wait for the 10am UoM data and see if we get above 327 on the QQQ. If we go up, grab calls. If it goes down, grab puts. We are at an inflection point but we will not have any major moves in this market. So you can scalp very small moves, but it also is a little safer to hold as we do not have any events to trigger larger moves.
- NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431
- $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 316 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 338

Thursday, August 11th Market Preview
What Happened? -
- CPI came in lower on the headline number and lower vs expectations on the Core. Market rocketed up to over 418 at the open.
- The very interesting thing here is that we not only moved so much in premarket but we held it all day long and closed near 420. That is a very bullish sign.
- We are at major resistance on the QQQ, so we will look more into that in the technical analysis section below.
What to Expect on Tuesday?
- We have PPI in the morning. This could pour some cold water on the bullish move we got today, but I am not seeing it as a major indicator honestly.
Current Positions and Plays:
- I am all cash heading into tomorrow. Just waiting on confirmation on whether we break above this QQQ resistance.
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - We are just outside of overbought on all the major charts, 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and on the Daily.
- SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618.
- SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236. I hated every second of this @mcarter.

- QQQ Technicals - We are just outside of overbought on all the major charts, 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and on the Daily.
- QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382.
- QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support.

WTF is Going On?
- CPI has been released so where are we headed?
- This is the billion dollar question. First we need to answer a few questions.
- Why we moved up on a CPI reading that is still at 8.5%?
- Two words sums up why we moved up, New Data. The market has the old data, the higher data and is going to react to updated data. And the inflation data came down, and more importantly the core came in flat from the previous month's number. Peak inflation narrative now has data to back it up. Fed's current rate hike plan now has data to back it up. So more importantly this puts ice on any emergency rate hikes or 100 BPS hikes in September.
- Is that CPI Reading enough to move us up any further?
- This was the big data release for this month. Inflation is the key thing the Fed is focused on controlling. So yes this CPI number offers optimism in the Fed's plan. So will it be enough to break over some technical resistance? That is what I am looking for. There is a lot of money on the sidelines, and does this start bringing that money back into the market. I think if SPY closes the week over 420, it is a big bullish win.
- Ok, so what can bring us lower?
- We will answer this question that no black swan events come in. We have the PPI tomorrow morning and that can pour some cold water on the market, but it is not a major data release. The next major landmine is looking like the statement out of the Jackson Hole Symposium from JPow at the end of this month on the week of the 22nd. Then we have PCE data afterwards. Bears only have technical resistances now to hang their hat on. We are overextended on the charts and it is ripe for a major pullback. But until that starts, don't guess on it. I lost $10k guessing it for the last two weeks.
- So what is your plan?
- I am watching QQQ like a hawk. If we break above 327, then I am going to play calls up to 335. When we hit that mark I will start to build a long term short position since the VIX will be low. This market will cool off and face reality that the bear market is not over due to QT and more Fed tightening. I don't know when exactly it is coming down, so I will make sure to give myself enough time. If we start to reject heavy at 327 and can't break over it, then I will play the downside as the current resistance at 327 is valid.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:
- Scenario 1: If QQQ breaks 327, grab calls up until 338. This will take a few days, maybe even a few weeks. So I will grab longer dated expirations. I like playing the SPX here on the upside as it has other components to keep it propped up.
- Scenario 2: If QQQ is rejected at 327. Grab calls for a short term scalp for a play to 323. Then see how it handles that level as that is key support.
- NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431
- $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 316 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 338
Mentions: QQQ

Friday, August 5th Market Preview
What Happened? -
- SPY opened up flat and just chopped around all day. No trend day.
- I am still holding my puts from Wednesday's overnight swing.
What to Expect?
- Friday
- Premarket Earnings - DKNG
- Payroll Data at 8:30am. This is the big data for the week. Did it get leaked?
Current Positions and Plays:
- I did add some ARKK puts today for October. I am tailing a whale on this one.
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - We are still overbought on the 4 hour and now neutral on the 30 min and 1 hour. The Daily is also getting overextended.
- SPY Technicals - All eyes on the 413 and 415 levels. They have been the support and resistance for the last few days. A solid break under 413 and we are testing 410. If we break above 415, then we are headed to 417 and then most likely 420.
WTF is Going On?
- Jobs Data tomorrow, did it get leaked?
- Here is the tweet: twitter.com/cvpayne/status/155...
- If this is true, my puts are fucked. The Fed Pivot crowd will have the ammunition it needs to push SPY to 420. The wildcard here will be wage inflation in the report. If that is hot/elevated, then we have a bearish case that inflation is still a problem and no Fed Pivot can happen with inflation being hot.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:
- Scenario 1: We gap up above 415. I will need to decide if I just take the loss on the puts right away or revert back to waiting on the technicals to cool. I will most likely take the loss, and grab calls if a trend is identified since this would be moving based on a fundamental event.
- Scenario 2: We gap down below 413. I will see if a 413 retest happens and a rejection. If that is the case, then we are headed to 410 and I will ride my puts.
- Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 1 points). This would be a situation where I would need to look at rolling my puts out a bit further.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 396 > 401 > 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 416 > 420 > I refuse to go higher on the levels.

Thursday, July 21st Market Preview
Current Positions and Plays:
- I am feeling pretty sick so this preview is going to be a little light on the recap sections. If you want to find out what happened today, look at stonks superhero and greatest FinTwit user you have never heard of, Maverick's preview for Thursday. It should be out by 3am Thursday morning.
- Holding all cash overnight.
What happened?
- I am sick, read stonks superuser Maverick's preview on the frontpage. But I will say that TSLA's earnings had some fluff on the BTC sell to help their cash holdings.
What to Expect?
- There is no major US Economic Data this week.
- Keep an eye on the DXY and technicals. If you are trader, this is your time to shine.
What Do I Think?
- QQQ Technicals - We hit a high overbought mark on the 30 min and the 1 hour. This caused the market to find any reason to sell off and GOOGL gave it the reason. The technicals are now still very close to overbought on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. The 4 hour is now getting close as well to overbought. The daily charts are still neutral, but are leaning to overbought bias.
- QQQ Technicals - We had a little pullback at the open. But then we roared up to the big Fib Level, 304.87. Then we say a pullback and never did clear that level.
- SPY Technicals - We hit overbought on the 30 min, and the 1 hour. Same story as QQQ, we got the GOOGL news and back down we went. The 4 hour is now getting close as well to overbought. The daily charts are still neutral, but are leaning to overbought bias.
- SPY Technicals - We are now comfortably above the big level at 380 for SPY. Next major level I have is 396.33.
WTF is Going On (Version 4 - Repeat of yesterday)?
- Wait, so the AAPL news was not bad?
- Kind of... it is bad news. But it conveniently was released right when the charts hit overbought conditions on Monday. I think that combination led to the above average selling. The fact that buyers stepped in today and brought AAPL back over 150 is all I need to know about how serious this news is in the short run.
- I am so confused... Is the market bullish again?
- In the short term, yes it is bullish. A lot of the bearish fears are very much present but they are longer term issues. So this rally has legs for the next few major levels on the indices. Of course, if TSLA comes out with abysmal earnings the market will negatively react. But the odds and conditions are very much in favor of the market bulls in the short term. I am looking to buy the dip for a SHORT TERM play of a few weeks at max. This is still not a market where you are looking for any long term holds.
- Ok, what about FOMC next week?
- It is pretty clear that the Fed is looking at 75 BPS hike. I know, you know it, and more importantly the market knows it. So the market will move on JPow's words, but as long as the rate hike is not 100 BPS, I expect FOMC to not kill any momentum.
- What is the big landmine this week?
- It is easy to have bullish blinders on looking at the US calendar. BUT, we need to watch the. international inflation data. If the EU and UK come in hot, the DXY could explode upward. That will mute any rally we can have. So keep an eye on the DXY. If it drops, bulls can expect this rally to keep going. If it spikes, keep on your toes.
- Is 75 or 100 BPS coming up next week?
- As much as 100 BPS was getting attention after CPI, it appears the Fed is still looking at 75 BPS. A few Fed officials have come out and hinted at support of 100 BPS, but have pushed strongly for the 75 BPS hike. The one member that came out and outright supported 100 BPS, is not a voting member.
- Inflation is roaring up, but is it peaking?
- The answer here is no and yes. No it is not peaking, but yes the optimism is there for the next report to be cooler due to the ass kicking commodities have taken since late June.
- You Keep saying DXY, What is that?
- The DXY is the US Dollar Index. This historically has been an inverse indicator for equities and commodities. A weak dollar is good for equities. A strong dollar means a lot of things, and in this environment, it is serving as THE safe haven for all global markets. As other countries see inflation spike and their supply chains disrupted, it is further fueling the strength to the dollar as the only true stable global currency. In the long run though, this is very very bad. But we will get into that in a future post.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for SPY:
- Scenario 1: We gap down a few points. I am looking at buying the dip here for calls as the overbought conditions on the charts would be worked out.
- Scenario 2: We gap up and break over 397. This should put us in extreme overbought territory again on both the 30 min and 1 hour and possibly the 4 hour. I will be cautious with my cash and wait for any pullback that will cool those RSI readings.
- Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points). I will most likely wait until 10am to make a play and see if a trend can be identified. I am still looking for a pullback to cool those readings.
- I am now only interested in calls. But only on a pullback. The risk reward for both calls and puts here in the short term are dog shit.
- This is not Financial Advice
Levels I am Watching
- $QQQ - levels 290 > 292 > 297 > 300 > 305 > Valhalla
- $SPY - levels 383 > 385 > 390 > 396 > 404 > Valhalla

Wednesday, July 20th Market Preview
Current Positions and Plays:
- Let me start with some honesty. I was a fucking idiot with my plays. I held a put overnight in hopes that the EU CPI Data would come in hot and didn't realize that a rate decision would come out of it. A more aggressive rate hike was announced and the Euro shot way up and the DXY died. This killed my puts.
- At the open, I realized I was on the wrong side of the market, I made the switch and bought calls at 10am. I sold them just 25 mins later as happy as I could be, and then I realized that I had made a mistake. I bought them back and kept scalping them until the 390 level. Then I got cocky...
- I grabbed puts not once but TWICE, and gave back most of my intraday gains. Ended red on a day where SPY ran 10 points. Hence the admission of me being a fucking idiot.
- I called this rally last Friday, and I let the AAPL news shake my thesis. This is the second week in a row I have let something rattle me and put too much weight on the story enough to shift my thesis. Just frustrating...
- Holding all cash overnight.
What happened?
- Market gapped up yet again and didn't look back. There is not much to say here but Damn... SPY broke through 385 and 390. QQQ motored through 292, 295, and closed above the big 297 level.
- The AAPL news from Monday was long gone and the market didn't care one bit about it. Honestly, it just felt like a technical move down when the news was released as we were overbought on the 30 min and 1 Hour charts.
- We closed at the highs of the day.
- NFLX's earnings were a mixed bag, however the bullish narrative has been set and it was held up by the "well it wasn't as bad as we expected."
- Honestly, bears have to be just pissed off today. Everything is pointing the market to go down, and yet here we are with a real shot at a SPY 400 break this week, and QQQ flirting with 300 in afterhours.
What to Expect?
- Earnings: TSLA and UAL report in afterhours. Tesla has the markets in its hands.
- There is no major US Economic Data this week.
- International Events are hot this week so we need to keep an eye on these as it will impact the DXY.
- Wednesday - UK CPI and PPI data, GER PPI data, CA CPI data
What Do I Think?
- QQQ Technicals - We are near overbought on the 30 min and the 1 hour. 4 hour and daily charts are still neutral.
- QQQ Technicals - We cleared 2 Fib levels today, and the next one is 304.87. I am looking for a retest at 297.26. We cleared that major level a little too easily imo.
- SPY Technicals - We hit overbought on the 30 min, and the 1 hour is on the edge of being overbought. 4 hour and daily charts are still neutral.
- SPY Technicals - We are now comfortably above the big level at 380 for SPY. Next major level I have is 396.33.
AAPL changed everything, and completely killed all the bullish momentum. It is really tough to be a bull here for more than a few hours honestly.- I got caught up in the bear hype due to the AAPL news. It cost me dearly.
WTF is Going On (Version 4)?
- Wait, so the AAPL news was not bad?
- Kind of... it is bad news. But it conveniently was released right when the charts hit overbought conditions on Monday. I think that combination led to the above average selling. The fact that buyers stepped in today and brought AAPL back over 150 is all I need to know about how serious this news is in the short run.
- I am so confused... Is the market bullish again?
- In the short term, yes it is bullish. A lot of the bearish fears are very much present but they are longer term issues. So this rally has legs for the next few major levels on the indices. Of course, if TSLA comes out with abysmal earnings the market will negatively react. But the odds and conditions are very much in favor of the market bulls in the short term. I am looking to buy the dip for a SHORT TERM play of a few weeks at max. This is still not a market where you are looking for any long term holds.
- Ok, what about FOMC next week?
- It is pretty clear that the Fed is looking at 75 BPS hike. I know, you know it, and more importantly the market knows it. So the market will move on JPow's words, but as long as the rate hike is not 100 BPS, I expect FOMC to not kill any momentum.
- What is the big landmine this week?
- It is easy to have bullish blinders on looking at the US calendar. BUT, we need to watch the. international inflation data. If the EU and UK come in hot, the DXY could explode upward. That will mute any rally we can have. So keep an eye on the DXY. If it drops, bulls can expect this rally to keep going. If it spikes, keep on your toes.
- Is 75 or 100 BPS coming up next week?
- As much as 100 BPS was getting attention after CPI, it appears the Fed is still looking at 75 BPS. A few Fed officials have come out and hinted at support of 100 BPS, but have pushed strongly for the 75 BPS hike. The one member that came out and outright supported 100 BPS, is not a voting member.
- Inflation is roaring up, but is it peaking?
- The answer here is no and yes. No it is not peaking, but yes the optimism is there for the next report to be cooler due to the ass kicking commodities have taken since late June.
- You Keep saying DXY, What is that?
- The DXY is the US Dollar Index. This historically has been an inverse indicator for equities and commodities. A weak dollar is good for equities. A strong dollar means a lot of things, and in this environment, it is serving as THE safe haven for all global markets. As other countries see inflation spike and their supply chains disrupted, it is further fueling the strength to the dollar as the only true stable global currency. In the long run though, this is very very bad. But we will get into that in a future post.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for SPY:
- Scenario 1: We gap down below 390. I am looking at buying the dip here for calls.
- Scenario 2: We gap up and break over 397. This should put us in overbought territory on both the 30 min and 1 hour. I will be cautious with my cash and wait for any pullback that will cool those RSI readings.
- Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points). I will most likely wait until 10am to make a play and see if a trend can be identified. I am still looking for a pullback to cool those readings, and I am not in too much of a hurry with TSLA's earnings in afterhours.
- I am now only interested in calls. But only on a pullback. The risk reward for both calls and puts here in the short term are dog shit.
- This is not Financial Advice
Levels I am Watching
- $QQQ - levels 290 > 292 > 297 > 300 > 305 > Valhalla
- $SPY - levels 383 > 385 > 390 > 396 > 404 > Valhalla

Tuesday, July 19th Market Preview
Current Positions and Plays:
- I was holding calls on QQQ and they opened up nice and green at the open. I had all intentions to hold them until a 297 test, but that tricky VIX was also green. That scared me like when my wife looks through my internet history and I locked in the profit.
- QQQ broke down under 294 and AAPL broke under 150, so I grabbed puts and scalped them all the way down.
- Holding SPX puts for 3820 for 07/28 for an overnight swing. I am counting on a hot EU CPI number to push the DXY up.
What happened?
- Market gapped up again and hung out for the first half of the day at the QQQ 294-295 levels. We were in a tight 2 point range for most of the day, and then...
- AAPL rattled the market with news that they are limiting hiring and funding for certain teams (projects?) into 2023. AAPL started falling, and so did the market. The intense selling was coming in fast and fierce and we were breaking levels like Usher was breaking hearts in the early 2000s.
- We closed near the lows of the day.
What to Expect?
- Earnings: JNJ, LMT, CFG all reporting in the morning. Not much here but JNJ for some guidance.
- Earnings: NFLX reports afterhours. This is the big, sexy earnings report for retail.
- There is no major US Economic Data this week.
- Chips Bill is set to get voted on in the Senate on Tuesday. This is an obvious tech catalyst.
- International Events are hot this week so we need to keep an eye on these as it will impact the DXY.
- Tuesday - EU CPI data, UK Bank Chair Speaks
- Wednesday - UK CPI and PPI data, GER PPI data, CA CPI data
What Do I Think?
- QQQ Technicals - We hit overbought on the 30 min, 1 hour and then we dropped hard back to neutral. 4 hour and daily charts are still neutral.
- QQQ Technicals - 286.82 and 291.92 are levels on a major Weekly Fibs. We closed right in-between them at 289.40.
- SPY Technicals - We are neutral on the 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and daily charts.
- SPY Technicals - The big level is 380 for SPY. We are still above it, but if that level is broken... look out below.
- AAPL changed everything, and completely killed all the bullish momentum. It is really tough to be a bull here for more than a few hours honestly.
- Keep an eye on the DXY tomorrow. With the EU CPI data set to come in the morning, we could see the DXY rocket up on a hot read. This will be bad for equities.
WTF is Going On (Version 3)?
- What did AAPL just Do?
- AAPL just confirmed that the itch the market has been feeling was in fact a STD. When the biggest company in the US announces that they are expecting economic turmoil and announce a reaction to it by limiting jobs and funding into 2023, that is a big hit to any market bull's thesis. Any market rally that happens has to include AAPL for it to be sustainable for more than a few hours. So all eyes are AAPL the next few days to see if it can show a pulse.
- You Keep saying DXY, What is that?
- The DXY is the US Dollar Index. This historically has been an inverse indicator for equities and commodities. A strong dollar means a lot of things, and in this environment, it is serving as THE safe haven for all global markets. As other countries see inflation spike and their supply chains disrupted, it is further fueling the strength to the dollar as the only true stable global currency. In the long run though, this is very very bad. But we will get into that in a future post.
- What is the big landmine this week?
- We do have the CHIPS Bill as a catalyst on Tuesday. It is easy to have bullish blinders on looking at the US calendar. BUT, we need to watch the. international inflation data. If the EU and UK come in hot, the DXY will explode upward. That will mute any rally we can have. So stay on your toes and don't be too biased.
- Is 75 or 100 BPS coming up next week?
- As much as 100 BPS was getting attention after CPI, it appears the Fed is still looking at 75 BPS. A few Fed officials have come out and hinted at support of 100 BPS, but have pushed strongly for the 75 BPS hike. The one member that came out and outright supported 100 BPS, is not a voting member.
- Inflation is roaring up, but is it peaking?
- The answer here is no and yes. No it is not peaking, but yes the optimism is there for the next report to be cooler due to the ass kicking commodities have taken since late June.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for SPY:
- Scenario 1: We gap down below 380, I will sell my puts and lock in profit. If we re-test 380, I will look to see if this level turns into resistance to enter some more puts.
- Scenario 2: We gap up and break over 385. I will sell my puts for a loss and sit back and make sure this tech rally has some more legs in it.
- Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points) I will hold my puts and wait and see how the market is reacting to the all the bearish sentiment. I will be locked in on AAPL to see if it can recover from the beating we took on Monday.
- I am only interested in calls if we break 385, or if we test the big 373 level again.
- This is not Financial Advice
Levels I am Watching
- $QQQ - levels 280 > 285 > 287 > 290 > 292 > 297 > Valhalla
- $SPY - levels 373 > 380 > 383 > 385 > 390 > Valhalla

Monday, July 18th Market Preview
Current Positions and Plays:
- I grabbed calls on QQQ at the open and rode it all day to finally get green at the end of the day. I did a shitty entry and was down like 8% all day but was handsomely rewarded with a 2% profit in the last minute of the trading day.
- Holding QQQ calls for 290 for 07/27
What happened?
- Market gapped up which as a nice kick in the scrotum for me not buying calls on the 373 SPY level on Thursday.
- Retail Data came in above expectations which sparked the move upward.
- UoM data at 10am brought bullish momentum and kept us in a range all day.
- OpEx (pronounced "O-Pex" or "Ah-Pex" let me know which one in the comments. ) gave us volatility in the very last few minutes of the day and had us closing at day highs. It was frankly bad ass.
What to Expect?
- Earnings: BAC, GS, SCHW all reporting in the morning. So we will have a lot of movement on the financial sector.
- Earnings: INTC reports afterhours.
- There is no major US Economic Data this week.
- Chips Bill is set to get voted on in the Senate on Tuesday. This is an obvious tech catalyst.
- International Events are hot this week so we need to keep an eye on these as it will impact the DXY.
- Tuesday - EU CPI data, UK Bank Chair Speaks
- Wednesday - UK CPI and PPI data, GER PPI data, CA CPI data
- Keep an eye on the DXY and see if it stays under 108.
What Do I Think?
- QQQ Technicals - We are neutral on the 30 min, 1 hour are close to overbought. 4 hour and daily charts are still new.
- QQQ Technicals - 291.92 level is a major Weekly Fib Level and we closed right at it.
- QQQ Technicals - It is all about that Fib level above. If we can hold that level, the next resistance is at 297.
- Last preview, I introduced a new section. I am going to keep he section and expand on it and update it as the market proves to F me in A.
WTF is Going On?
- What is the big landmine this week?
- We do have the CHIPS Bill as a catalyst on Tuesday. It is easy to have bullish blinders on looking at the US calendar. BUT, we need to watch the. international inflation data. If the EU and UK come in hot, the DXY will explode upward. That will mute any rally we can have. So stay on your toes and don't be too biased.
- Is 75 or 100 BPS coming up next week?
- As much as 100 BPS was getting attention after CPI, it appears the Fed is still looking at 75 BPS. A few Fed officials have come out and hinted at support of 100 BPS, but have pushed strongly for the 75 BPS hike. The one member that came out and outright supported 100 BPS, is not a voting member.
- Inflation is roaring up, but is it peaking?
- The answer here is no and yes. No it is not peaking, but yes the optimism is there for the next report to be cooler due to the ass kicking commodities have taken since late June.
- Why is tech moving like nothing is wrong?
- Tech is the one sector that has been hit the hardest by this bear market. So a lot of names are attractive at these prices, and this is the one sector that is still managing pretty good earnings reports. The best answer I can come up with is simply, there are no major landmines for the next few sessions. So you can actually be safe in tech until next Wednesday when TSLA reports afterhours. So if you are looking to park some money in a sector that can move upward in the very short term, this looks to be the one.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Scenario 1: We gap up above 292, I will sell my calls and lock in profit. If we re-test 292, I will re-enter the calls on any bounce off of it.
- Scenario 2: We gap down and break under 292. That would force me to hold the calls all day, and hope for a bullish rotation into tech.
- Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points) I will hold my calls and wait and see if the chips bill on Tuesday can carry tech upward.
- I am only interested in puts if we break 287, or if we roar up and test 297.
Levels I am Watching
- $QQQ - levels 280 > 285 > 287 > 290 > 293 > 297 > Valhalla

Friday, July 15th Market Preview
Current Positions and Plays:
- Let me just start by saying I fucked up in a big way today. I had some real big dick energy this morning and scaled up on my position size for SPX puts. I was killing it at the open when SPY broke under 373 and I was feeling good about my Camry sized position. Well, then I did not honor my level system and did not sell at level breaks. And a few hours went by and my Camry turned into a used Yaris.
- Holding all cash heading into tomorrow.
What happened?
- PPI came in hotter than expected. JPM reported nasty earnings. DXY was setting new highs near 109.30. The stage was set for a market to break under 373 and head to lower lows. We got the initial break and then Waller sparked an oversold bounce with his support of 75 BPS hike with the possibility of a 100 BPS hike.
- Then Trump said it is a matter of "if not when I announce my 2024 candidacy"...
- Then the house passed the dead on arrival Marijuana Bill to send over to the Senate....
- Then the Senate said that on Tuesday they hope to vote on the US Chips Bill...
- At this point my puts were about as solid as Michael Jordan's sons being better in basketball than he was.
- Market closed near the highs of the day, with tech leading the way.
What to Expect?
- Earnings: WFC, C, BLK all reporting in the morning. So we will have a lot of movement on the financial sector.
- Retail Data is set to release at 8:30am EST
- UofM Data is coming in at 10am
- Keep an eye on the DXY and see if it moves under 108.
What Do I Think?
- I am switching things up and focusing on QQQ for the next few weeks. The reason is we got a serious rotation into tech today and I think it is a better play to the upside since SPY is going to get negatively impacted by the energy and financial sectors.
- QQQ Technicals - We are neutral on the 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and daily charts.
- QQQ Technicals - 286.82 level is a major Weekly Fib Level and we closed right at it.
- QQQ Technicals - We got a few more Fib levels to keep an eye on from the 314 to 269 recent trend. The one now in play is 286.
- QQQ Max Pain is 290 for tomorrow.
- The last few days have been an emotional roller coaster with me jumping between a few dozen different scenarios in my head. Switching from bullish to bearish like a vegetarian trying to be vegan. So I am going to try and data dump some thoughts below in a new section...
WTF is Going On?
- Is 100 BPS hike priced in?
- I think the fact that the market is even discussing it as much as it has, tells me this is getting priced in.
- Ok Cool, but is a 100 BPS bullish or bearish?
- This one has me stumped a bit. I think I am going to be coward and punt this one for a weekend research post.
- Inflation is roaring up, but is it peaking?
- The answer here is no and yes. No it is not peaking, but yes the optimism is there for the next report to be cooler due to the ass kicking commodities have taken since late June.
- JPM had terrible earnings, why the F did we go up today?
- I got bear trapped on that move down. So this one really hurt to answer. The best guess I have is rotation. JPM is the biggest bank and that means their poor earnings were a signal that most of the banks were going to mimic that negative report. So money got out of banks and went pouring into tech.
- Why is tech moving like nothing is wrong?
- Tech is the one sector that has been hit the hardest by this bear market. So a lot of names are attractive at these prices, and this is the one sector that is still managing pretty good earnings reports.
- That's bullshit and you know it. Why would anyone trust tech in this market?
- The best answer I can come up with is simply, there are no major landmines for the next few sessions. So you can actually be safe in tech until next Wednesday when TSLA reports afterhours. So if you are looking to park some money in a sector that can move upward in the very short term, this looks to be the one.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Scenario 1: We gap up above 287, I am buying calls and playing a bounce for a few days out with a target of 297. If we break 297, this thing is running like Usain Bolt.
- Scenario 2: We gap down and break under 285. Do nothing until 280 or 287 is tested.
- Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points) I will grab calls and again play a few days out with a target of 297.
- I am not interested in puts for tech here, just given the lack of bearish events ahead on the schedule for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday (TSLA reports in AH on Wed).
Levels I am Watching
- $QQQ - levels 280 > 285 > 287 > 290 > 293 > 297 > Valhalla

Thursday, July 14th Market Preview
Current Positions and Plays:
- I scalped SPX calls for a nice profit and then gave it all back in one trade at the end of the day.
- Holding all cash heading into tomorrow.
What happened?
- CPI came in hot on the topline number with 9.1%. The Core came in at 5.9% and the market dropped 10 points in one 5 min candle at the time of the release.
- The market opened up around 375 and then ripped up to 381 in the day. It was a running of the bulls in the face of bad data.
What to Expect?
- TSMC Stock has earnings at 2:00am EST
- PPI Data is set to release at 8:30am EST
- Keep an eye on the DXY and how it moves over 108.
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - We are neutral on the 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and daily charts.
- SPY Technicals - 380 level is a major Weekly Fib Level. That is still THE level to watch. We closed below 380 and that is a bearish signal.
- SPY Technicals - We got a few more Fib levels to keep an eye on from the 417 to 362 recent trend. The one now in play is 373.
- It is back to the levels game for now. The CPI data came in hot but we are still getting peak inflation narratives getting thrown around. It had some sticking power, but it is a weak argument with the Core number coming in near last month's reading.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Scenario 1: We gap down and test 373, I am buying calls at that level and playing a bounce off that important level.
- Scenario 2: We gap down and just break through 373. Then it is puts until 363.
- Scenario 3: We never reach 373 and just chop around. This is a sit back and wait until 373 or 380 are tested.
- As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 373 > 376 > 380 > 383 > 385 > 389 > 393

Wednesday, July 13th Market Preview
Sorry for taking a few days off from doing the previews. I am back and lets get prepped for this big CPI day.
Current Positions and Plays:
Current Positions and Plays:
- I scalped SPX puts for a nice profit.
- Holding all cash heading into tomorrow.
What happened?
- The market had a few swings early on and took a dump near the end of the day and cracked below 380.
- Oil was way down today, while the DXY popped to 108.50. Keep that drop in oil in the back of your mind.
What to Expect?
- CPI Inflation Data at 8:30am. This will move the markets.
- The CPI has two very important numbers, the headline number which is every component of the report. And the Core number which excludes energy and food.
- This is a lagging report, so the data is important, but know that this report is pricing oil when it was at its highest (120+ a barrel).
- Oil has dropped significantly this month, so the argument is there for this report to be an abnormality if it comes in hot on the headline number. That argument becomes invalid if the Core also comes in at a hot number.
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - We are almost oversold on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. The 4 hour and daily remains neutral.
- SPY Technicals - 380 level is a major Weekly Fib Level. That is still THE level to watch. As long as we stay above this level, bulls are safe.
- SPY Technicals - We got a few more Fib levels to keep an eye on from the 417 to 362 recent trend. The one now in play is 383.
- I have gone over a more in depth dive into the CPI scenarios in this post: stonks.chat/group/9/posts/526.
- CPI Inflation Data will move the markets. Below are the scenarios I am looking for.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Scenario 1: CPI Topline Number comes in at or below expectations near 8.8% and Core comes in at or below 5.7%. This is a bullish scenario. I will be looking for an initial dip at the open and then grabbing calls for a few weeks out with an end target of testing 400 again.
- Scenario 2: CPI Topline Number comes in above 9% and Core comes in near 6%. This scenario is very difficult for me. I think you have to be extra cautious with any move that initially happens, and just play the levels with quick scalps. The oil argument has some merit still in this scenario and we can still get a valid argument that this report is showing a potential top in inflation.
- Scenario 3: CPI Topline Number comes in above 9% and Core comes in above 6.5%. Grab puts for a few weeks out and sit back. We are going to set new lows and there will be more pressure for the Fed to raise rates by 100 BPS in the late July FOMC meeting.
- As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 373 > 376 > 380 > 383 > 385 > 389 > 393

Friday, July 8th Market Preview
Current Positions and Plays:
- I scalped SPX calls for a nice profit. I gave some profit back with a put lotto at the end of the day.
- Holding all cash heading into tomorrow.
What happened?
- The market just slowly grinded up all day. Opened up above 385 and just slowly moved all the way to the 389. This was a pure algo technical move.
What to Expect?
- Nonfarm payrolls data on Friday at 8:30am. This will move the markets
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - We are almost overbought on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. The 4 hour and daily remains neutral.
- SPY Technicals - 380 level is a major Weekly Fib Level. That is still THE level to watch. As long as we stay above this level, bulls are safe.
- SPY Technicals - We got a few more Fib levels to keep an eye on from the 417 to 362 recent trend. The one now in play is 389.81
- Jobs Data will be important to watch. Below are the scenarios I am looking for.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Scenario 1: Nonfarm Payroll data comes in with slight losses in jobs, then the market moves upward. Looking at a 390 break and a march to 400.
- Scenario 2: Nonfarm Payroll data comes in with more jobs created, then the market moves downward. Looking at a drop back to 383 and possibly 380.
- Good news = bad news for Wall Street. The Fed is the fear and with a strong economy, that means the market is not responding to the Fed's tightening measures so they will need to be more aggressive.
- As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 376 > 380 > 383 > 385 > 389.39 > 395 > 400

Thursday, July 7th Market Preview
Current Positions and Plays:
- I swung SPX calls and sold at the pop at the open. I then scalped some more calls after the FOMC minutes.
- Holding all cash heading into tomorrow.
What happened?
- The market opened up slightly green and ran right into the 383 level and got smacked back down.
- The jobs opening data came in flat. No real change there meant that we were going to be choppy heading into the FOMC minutes at 2pm.
- The FOMC minutes were released and it confirmed the hawkish tone that the Fed had shown in the last minute. So again, no real new information in it so the market rocketed up to 385 shortly after the release.
- The close saw a drop back to the 383 level when the 30 min chart hit overbought on the RSI, which was the early resistance for the day. Looks like it has now turned into support.
What to Expect?
- With the Job Openings and FOMC minutes out of the way, we now just have the Nonfarm payrolls data on Friday.
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - We are neutral on all the major charts.
- SPY Technicals - 380 level is a major Weekly Fib Level. That is still THE level to watch. As long as we stay above this level, bulls are safe.
- SPY Technicals - We got a few more Fib levels to keep an eye on from the 417 to 362 recent trend. The one now in play is 383.28. Next one is 389.81
- The last few times we have had a nice upward move from any Fed news, the next day has seen heavy selling. That is the main reason I am all cash now. No reason to guess on the direction.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY
- I will look at a 383.28 (Fib level) retest. I am still bullish, but I will be extra cautious moving forward now since we have hit my original 385 target. I got my eye on the RSI and will bail on my bullish views if the 30 min chart starts getting in the overbought territory again.
- It is all about the levels for me. 380 is a big level, if that breaks, we can look at puts possibly to the 373 level again.
- A 385 break and I will look at calls until 390 (another Fib Level).
- As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 373 > 376 > 380 > 383 > 385 > 390

Wednesday, July 6th Market Preview
Current Positions and Plays:
- I got very fortunate with my SPX call to finish the day green. I was way under water on it at the open and averaged down at the 373.80 level. It ended up paying off.
- Holding SPX 3835 call for 07/14
What happened?
- The market gapped down to 376 at the open and dropped all the way to 373 level. This drop was due to the DXY roaring up and Oil dropping as well.
- The market found support at 373 and rocketed up in the second half of the day to close above 381. Tech carried the markets today.
What to Expect?
- Jobs Data on Wednesday
- FOMC Minutes on Wednesday
- Nonfarm payrolls data on Friday
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - We are neutral on all the major charts
- SPY Technicals - 380 level is a major Weekly Fib Level. That is THE level to watch.
- SPY Technicals - We got a few more Fib levels to keep an eye on from the 417 to 362 recent trend.
- FOMC Minutes - We will get some bearish sentiment from these minutes, but I am not sure any new information will be presented. So I am not expecting much negative impact out of the FOMC minutes.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY
- I am in calls and will look for a 383.28 (Fib level) test. I am hoping for a gap up over that, but if we don't get that in the futures, then I will look to sell my calls at this initial test if it comes.
- It is all about the levels for me. 380 is a big level, if that breaks, we can look at puts possibly to the 373 level again.
- A 385 break and I will look at calls until 390 (another Fib Level).
- As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 373 > 376 > 380 > 383 > 385 > 390

Tuesday, July 5th Market Preview
Current Positions and Plays:
- I had swung a SPX call for a nice gain, and am now back to holding another call position overnight.
- Holding SPX 3830 call for 07/14
What happened?
- The market had a nice spike to 380 near the open and dropped quickly to the high 373 area. That quickly found support and hung out at 376 for hours.
- We finally had a nice upward move in to the close to above 381.
- A good ol' fashion low volume, holiday weekend pump
What to Expect?
- We have some landmines on Wednesday and Friday that we need to keep an eye on.
- Jobs Data on Wednesday
- FOMC Minutes on Wednesday
- Nonfarm payrolls data on Friday
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - We are almost overbought on the 30 min and 1 hour timeframes, but not there yet. Neutral on the 4 hour and Daily charts.
- SPY Technicals - 380 level is a major Weekly Fib Level. That is THE level to watch.
- SPY Technicals - We got a few more Fib levels to keep an eye on from the 417 to 362 recent trend.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY
- With no pending economic data for Tuesday, it is back to playing the technicals and levels.
- I am in calls and will look for a 383.28 (Fib level) test. If we get that, I will sell my calls.
- It is all about the levels for me. 380 is a big level, if that breaks, we can look at puts possibly to the 373 level.
- A 385 break and I will look at calls until 390 (another Fib Level).
- Pretty clear path here with these levels.
- As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 373 > 376 > 380 > 383 > 385 > 390
- 30 min chart with the levels I am looking at.


Friday, July 1st Market Preview
Current Positions and Plays:
- I had swung a SPX put for a nice gain, and am now back to holding another position overnight. This time it is calls.
- Holding SPX 3770 call for 07/11
What happened?
- PCE came in right at expectations with the Core coming below it. That was a pretty favorable reading all things considering.
- The PCE spending did go down for the first time since December and I believe this is what led to the initial sell off at the open.
- SPY dropped to 373 and started to catch some bids down there. It then went on an absolute tear all the way back to 380. It tested 380 a few more times but ultimately got rejected.
- This was the end of the quarter so there were a lot of wild swings happening in the final minutes.
What to Expect?
- PMI numbers in the morning, but nothing major at all heading into the holiday weekend.
- There are no major economic data releases until the Jobs data next Wednesday.
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - Neutral on all the major timeframes. 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily charts.
- SPY Technicals - 380 level is a major Weekly Fib Level. That is THE level to watch.
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY
- With no pending economic data due for a week, it is back to playing the technicals and levels.
- I am in calls, and honestly I have this absurd level of confidence in them. I do not see much in the way of a low volume steady uptick movement with the holiday weekend approaching.I am keeping an eye on the following items:
- If the DXY gets above 105, exit any calls and scalp very short term put plays.
- If the QQQ breaks under 275, exit the calls and sit on the sidelines.
- If the VIX breaks above 30 and holds it, exit calls.
- If any of these 3 scenarios present themselves, then my calls are toast. But until then, I have no reason to sell them until the next data release. If this turns into a bear market rally, my target is 400.
- I don't see much opportunity for puts at these levels, but if some unforeseen event presents itself, then I will adjust and switch to puts.
- As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 363 > 368 > 370 > 373 > 376 > 380 > 385

Thursday, June 30th Market Preview
Current Positions and Plays:
- I played an SPX put at the 380 level early in the morning and held it all day. My entry was poor and I ended up holding overnight. All week I said the one day to not hold overnight was Wednesday and I convinced myself to do it anyways....
- Holding a SPX 3810p for 07/08
What happened?
- The market opened up slightly green and tested 382.
- The GDP revision data came in a little worse and JPow had a roundtable with other global central bank leaders at the ECB Conference. Both of these events ended up being a nothing burger.
- We hugged 380 all day and it is clearly the line in the sand heading into the PCE data release.
- DXY broke above 105 and the 10 Year dropped. This is telling me money is moving to the bond market again, which is bad for equities.
What to Expect?
- Futures have gapped down Thursday morning ahead of the PCE release. Crypto and European markets are down bad, which could make the rest of the day very painful for bulls if that PCE release comes in hot.
- Thursday - PCE inflation data is released in premarket (this is the Fed's preferred metric)
- Thursday - End of the quarter, so I expect some volatility.
What Do I Think?
- SPY Technicals - Neutral on all the major timeframes. 4hour and Daily charts.
- SPY Technicals - We closed at the 380 level which is a major Weekly Fib Level.
- It is all about the PCE data release to me, so below are the scenarios I am looking for:
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY
- PCE data Scenarios
- Scenario 1: If it comes in at expectations. This could trigger a bounce at the 375 level as we have already moved 15 points down this week. There are so many factors that go into the PCE, but I assume the Core Number will be the bull's hope for a positive catalyst since it excludes Food and Energy.
- Scenario 2: If it comes in above expectations (a hot reading). Buy puts for a few weeks out and sit back. We are headed to new lows.
- Scenario 3: If it comes in below expectations (a cool reading). Buy calls for a few weeks out and sit back. We are going to fill some gaps.
- The end of the quarter brings some volatility to today.
- As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 363 > 368 > 370 > 373 > 376 > 380 > 385
- SPY 3 Year Weekly Chart below with Fib Levels.


Wednesday, June 29th Market Preview
Current Positions and Plays:
- I scalped a SPY put position for a nice gain after the CCI data came out below expectations. I sold too soon, but was happy to get a nice win.
- Holding all cash heading into tomorrow.
What happened?
- The market opened up green and tested 392. Once the CCI data was released, we started seeing selling come in and it just didn't stop.
- We ran right through 385, which was surprising to me. And then all the way down to under 381 at the close.
What to Expect?
- Wednesday - GDP data in premarket, JPow speaking at European Economic Conference at 9am.
- Thursday - PCE inflation data is released in premarket (this is the Fed's preferred metric)
What Do I Think?
- Technicals - We are almost oversold on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. Still neutral on the 4hour and Daily charts.
- Technicals - We are now testing the 380 level which is a major Weekly Fib Level.
- We have a gap to fill up to 400 on SPY. It is all about the upcoming economic data as to whether this gap gets filled.
- I was bullish at 385, but the market just knifed right through it so fast that I had no choice but to sit back and see if any buyers showed up. They did not...
- I do think some data got leaked that triggered this sell off. Below are scenarios I am looking for:
THE PLAYS OF THE DAY
- Scenario 1: If the GDP revision data comes in at expectations. This could trigger a bounce as the sell off today was too severe given the GDP data.
- Scenario 2: If the GDP revision comes in worse than expectations. This could trigger a little more sell off and probably gets us to 375 which is a recent Fib Level for the most recent trend.
- Scenario 3: If the GDP revision data comes in above expectations. This should trigger a nice bounce and could get us back to 390 in a hurry. However, be cautious playing this bounce beyond Wednesday. Something triggered the sell off today, and if the GDP was not leaked, then the PCE data could have been...
- I do not think JPow's talk will have much of an impact.
- I will not be holding anything overnight on Wednesday due to the PCE inflation data releases happening in premarket the next day.
- As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 370 > 373 > 376 > 380 > 385 > 388 > 390
- SPY 3 Year Weekly Chart below with Fib Levels.


Tuesday, June 28th Market Preview
Current Positions:
- Holding all cash heading into tomorrow.
What happened?
- The market opened up green and immediately started coming back down under 390, and hung around 388 pretty much all day.
- It was a flat choppy mess all day that stuck around VWAP.
- Honestly the only takeaway I have from today is how strong the market was to hold most of Friday's gains and not completely sell off.
What to Expect?
- Tuesday has a data release at 10am that could spark the market a bit more with the Consumer confidence index.
- There are some major landmines this week on the calendar. But nothing until Wednesday morning.
- Wednesday - GDP data in premarket, JPow speaking at European Economic Conference at 9am.
- Thursday - PCE inflation data is released in premarket (this is the Fed's preferred metric)
What Do I Think?
- Technicals - We are no longer overbought on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. So neutral on those charts plus the 4hour and Daily charts.
- Technicals - We are holding above 385 pretty well, but I see that test is slowly coming.
- We have a gap to fill up to 400 on SPY. This should get filled as long as the economic data this week does not come in too hot.
THE PLAY OF THE DAY
- If we retest 385 on Tuesday, I will grab calls as I think we retest 390 again and ultimately head to 400.
- I am not seeing much of a reason to play puts here unless we just knife right through 383. That would signal a 380 test is coming, so a quick scalp could be had.
- However, I will be looking at calls at 385, and if the market keep diving, I will double up at 380.
- If we break under 380 soundly, then I know any play on calls is risky.
- I will not be holding anything overnight on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the economic data releases happening in premarket the next day.
- As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 380 > 383 > 385 > 387 > 390 > 397 > 400

Monday, June 27th Market Preview
Current Positions:
- Holding all cash heading into tomorrow.
What happened?
- Futures gapped up above the 380 level on no major news. It opened up at 381 and never looked back.
- At 10am the market exploded up on the UofM consumer data and a revision of new home sales which saw a huge uptick from the expectations.
- My only thought is that the data was leaked as to why the futures exploded.
- The VIX broke at 10am and we rocketed up to 387 and just stopped for a few hours. Then the end of the day saw another burst upward and we closed at the high of the day at 390. We filled a 10 point gap in 1 trading session. Unreal.
What to Expect?
- There are some major landmines this week on the calendar. But nothing until Wednesday morning.
- Wednesday - GDP data in premarket, JPow speaking at European Economic Conference at 9am.
- Thursday - PCE inflation data is released in premarket (this is the Fed's preferred metric)
What Do I Think?
- Technicals - We are overbought on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. Still neutral on the 4hour and Daily charts.
- Technicals - We cheated in futures on Friday morning and skipped a few levels. I expect us to at least retest 385.
- We have a gap to fill up to 400 on SPY. This should get filled as long as the economic data this week does not come in too hot.
THE PLAY OF THE DAY
- If we retest 385 on Monday, I will grab calls as I think we retest 390 again and ultimately head to 400.
- I am not seeing much of a reason to play puts here unless we just knife right through 383. That would signal a 380 test is coming, so a quick scalp could be had.
- However, I will be looking at calls at 385, and if the market keep diving, I will double up at 380.
- If we break under 380 soundly, then I know any play on calls is risky.
- As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 380 > 383 > 385 > 387 > 390 > 397 > 400


Friday, June 24th Market Preview
Current Positions:
- Scalped some SPY puts very early in the day for a small profit. And then I was waiting for the drop to 373, and got trigger happy and entered calls on the 375 test. I rode it all the way down to 373 and back up to 376 for a small profit. This was a misplay on my part, and I was fortunate to get some profit out of it.
- Holding all cash heading into tomorrow.
What happened?
- Futures gapped up and it was trying to clear 378 level in premarket. SPY struggled to clear that level early on and got rejected right near it.
- JPow had a hearing with the House at 10am and about halfway through, the market started turning downward. The questions were much more tougher in this hearing and JPow was struggling with them at times. Once he was done with the hearing, we started diving to 373 and got a nice technical bounce all the way to 377.
- We then got some odd oil news about a flare up at a Marathon 66 refinery. Not sure why, but this sent oil way up and in turn pushed SPY over 378.
What to Expect?
- Bullard speaks at 7:30am
- UofM Consumer Sentiment and inflation data in the morning at 10am.
- Fed Speaker Daly speaks at 4pm
What Do I Think?
- Technicals - We are not oversold on any major charts. Again, we are still in no man's land. So it is time to keep an eye on Levels and Fibs (yes, I mentioned Fibs again for you guys in the discord).
- We still have a gap to fill up to 380 on SPY. It has been teasing getting to this level for the last few days. We are so close.
- Until we break out of this 373 to 380 range, I am not sure why else I would change my strategy.
THE PLAY OF THE DAY
- This is a repeat of the same strategy I have used all week.
- If we retest 373, I will keep an eye on how it reacts to it. If it holds, I am in calls for a few points.
- If we test 380, I will be buying puts if it is rejected.
- If we break under 370, I will be playing puts as we should slowly bleed out.
- As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 368 > 370 > 373 > 375 > 377 > 380

Thursday, June 23rd Market Preview
Current Positions:
- Scalped some SPX calls on the 373 break for a nice quick win at the open. This is the same setup I had on Tuesday
- Holding all cash heading into tomorrow.
What happened?
- Futures gapped down on a plethora of international news. UK reported high inflation, Canada reported high inflation, and Lithuania is at odds with Russia.
- JPow had a hearing with the Senate that started at the open. The market shook off the international news and started moving up and erased the losses from the bloodbath in futures.
- The close saw some intense selling in the last 5 minutes so it will be interesting if the futures hold that bearish trend.
What to Expect?
- PMI data in the morning. Not expecting much from this.
- JPow testifies the House Financial Committee at 10am. This will be a repeat of Wednesday's hearing, so I am not expecting much.
- Fri - Bullard speaks at 7:30am. Daly talks at 4pm.
What Do I Think?
- Technicals - We are not oversold on any major charts. Again, we are in no man's land. So it is time to keep an eye on Levels and Fibs.
- We still have a gap to fill up to 380 on SPY. It has been teasing getting to this level for the last few days.
- I am still bullish even with the sell off at the close. As long as we hold 373, I think it is safe for me to enter calls up until 377-378.
THE PLAY OF THE DAY
- This is a repeat of Wednesday's strategy.
- If we retest 373, I will keep an eye on how it reacts to it. I am still bullish until 380 is met, so I will most likely play calls if 373 holds.
- If we break under 370, I will be playing puts as we should slowly bleed out.
- As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 363 > 365> 368 > 370 > 373 > 375 > 377 > 380

Wednesday, June 22nd Market Preview
Current Positions:
- Scalped some SPX calls on the 373 break for a nice quick win at the open.
- Holding all cash heading into tomorrow.
What happened?
- Futures gapped up and we held the gap all day. A lot of chop all day and we honored the 373 and 377 levels well.
- All the gains were mostly in futures so overall a pretty boring regular market session.
- Oil started to move upward again. Keep an eye on this...
What to Expect?
- No major fed data events until PMI on Thursday.
- Wed - JPow testifies to the Senate banking committee at 9:30. Bullard talks at 12:50.
- Thurs - JPow testifies the House Financial Committee at 10am.
- Fri - Bullard speaks at 7:30am. Daly talks at 4pm.
What Do I Think?
- Technicals - We are not oversold on any major charts. We are in no man's land. So it is time to keep an eye on Levels and Fibs.
- As long as JPow keeps a hawkish tone, the market should stay strong. If he starts to sound dovish, the market will get spooked again that he is not serious about inflation and will sell off.
- We have a gap to fill up to 380 on SPY. It looks like we may test that level soon.
- After JPow's testimony, I do expect us to start to grind a bit. So I am looking possible swing positions with these options. It will just be too difficult to get to the levels on the chart in one session. I will start to be a little more loose with my plays to allow them to play out over the course of a few days.
THE PLAY OF THE DAY
- I will be on the sidelines until JPow gets about 50% done with his hearing. So that will take me out for the first half of the day.
- If we retest 373, I will keep an eye on how it reacts to it. I am still bullish until 380 is met, so I will most likely play calls if 373 holds.
- If we break under 370, and it is because JPow moved us there, I will be playing puts as we should slowly bleed out.
- As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 363 > 365> 368 > 370 > 373 > 375 > 377 > 380

Tuesday, June 21st Market Preview
Current Positions:
- Holding all cash heading into tomorrow.
What happened?
- Friday seems so long ago...
- It was Quad witching day and we had some drama early on. The same day expiration option chain had some "technical" issues and folks were not able to close out positions. During this time the SPY plummeted to a new low to sub 363.
- The market recovered a bit from that low and had a pretty boring close at 366.
- Crypto kissed the pavement on Saturday as BTC hit under 19k and ETH went under 900. They have since recovered back over 20k and 1100 respectively.
What to Expect?
- No major fed data events until PMI on Thursday, but holy moly I hope you like Fed Speakers...
- Tues - Mester at noon, Barkin at 3:30
- Wed - JPow testifies to the Senate banking committee at 9:30. Bullard talks at 12:50
- Thurs - JPow testifies the House Financial Committee at 10am.
- Fri - Bullard speaks at 7:30am. Daly talks at 4pm.
What Do I Think?
- Technicals - We are no longer oversold on 30 min, 1 hour charts. We are still oversold on the 4 hour chart. I am still leaning bullish here believe it or not.
- We have a gap to fill up to 380 on SPY. It looks like we may test that level soon as the futures have been very strong on Monday.
- The key level here is still 363 on the downside. If that is broken soundly, we are headed to 350 very soon.
THE PLAY OF THE DAY
- The level I am watching is 373 for calls. If that is broken, I think it is safe to ride this rally up to 380 and then take it from there.
- If we test 363 and hold it, I will go heavy in calls as that is major support, and will watch how it handles 370 after its test.
- If we break under 363, The next line I have is 350... so yeah it will be puts for me.
- As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice.
Levels I am Watching
- $SPY - levels 363 > 365> 368 > 370 > 373 > 375 > 380

Bones Tradez
Created By: | Bones |
Created: | Mar 2, 2022 |
Total Followers: | 27 |
Twitter: | @BonesTradez |
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Options Trader - Not Financial Advise
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