What Happened? - 

• We had a bullish move in premarket where SPY actually tested 407. But by the open we were near 403 and hung out near there until the 10am data release. 
• At 10am, you got strong Consumer Confidence Data and JOLTS openings came in hot and that sent us down below 400 and we hit our 396 target. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

What Happened? - 

• We had a small gap down and basically chopped around from 401.50 to 405 all day. We opened at 402.20 and closed at 402.60. So no trend could be identified today. Are we headed lower, or are we going to bounce? This probably won't be answered until Friday's Job data, so temper expectations on any major moves before hand. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

What Happened? - 

• Heading into Friday, the big question that everyone was asking for weeks was the Fed still feared and did JPow have the power still to move the markets down. Well, we got our answer after just an 8 minute speech from JPow took the market from 420 to 405 in one trading day. 
• The tide has certainly shifted and there is bearish sentiment all over the place. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

What Happened? - 

• We had a nice green start to the day. The key for me was to watch NVDA and see if it could recover from its drop from its earnings report. It did recover and the market gave a big hint as to what the daily trend would be.
• SPY hit 417.50 in the morning and then retested the 415 level before ripping up after 1pm. It was nonstop buying and push SPY all the way to 419.51 at the close.  
• Friday is the main event, and I think we got a little hint as to what is coming. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

What Happened? - 

• We opened again flat, and it was mostly a choppy day. There was again a pop near the open to 415, but the sellers came in batted it back down to 413. We just hung around that level until the end of the day.
• NVDA reported their earnings and their forecast came in weak. This led to a slide in afterhours. 
• All this flat action is setting up for a major move on Friday. One more day to get through. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

What Happened? - 

• We opened Tuesday flat, and it was mostly a choppy day. There was one pop near the open to 415, but the sellers came in batted it back down to 412. 
• QQQ continues to slide down. DXY and oil are on the move up. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

What Happened? - 

• We gapped down again on Monday to open around 417. The selling did not stop and we tested sub 413 and closed at 413.35. 
• We honored really no levels on the way down, and it broke a few levels a little too easily imo.  

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

What Happened? - 

• I was off on Friday, so I apologize for not doing a preview.
• The bull trap was set on Thursday at the close and  we gapped down at the open. The market could never recover and we closed near 422. 
• Bears finally got a win after a brutal few weeks. 

What to Expect on this Week (all times are EST)?

What Happened? - 

• It was a big day for economic data. UK inflation data came in higher than expected. EU GDP came in slightly lower and US Retail Sales came in slightly higher. The market opened red and chopped around a bit until the FOMC Minutes release. 
• The minutes release saw its normal spiked action and it appeared as if the market was headed back to 430 shortly after the release. But as the algos digested the info, the seller s showed up and pushed us down from 429 to 427. More importantly, QQQ was unable to hold the 330 level.  

What to Expect on Thursday?

• Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30am - Not a big event
• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index at 8:30am
• Existing Home Sales at 10am - this one could set the tone for the day. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• I have some SPX puts for Sept, and QQQ puts for December. I am as bearish as you can get. These turned green today and I am looking at riding them to SPY 420. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - We worked out some technicals today. The 4 hour and daily are nearly overbought. While the 30 min and 1 hour are neutral. 
• SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618. 
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
• 200 SMA is at 431.57. This is a big level to jump over. 
• SPY seems to be gravitating to the 427

• QQQ Technicals - We worked out some technicals today. The 4 hour and daily are nearly overbought. While the 30 min and 1 hour are neutral.
• QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382. 
• QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support. 
• Keep an eye on the 330 level 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: We gap down under 423. I would look for SPY to retest 425 and then head lower. We are getting to the end of a rally so I expect a stop loss raid to happen at certain levels if the buyers cannot successfully get back over the key levels. A flush could happen at any moment when the volume shows back up. We got some gaps to fill on the down side. 
• Scenario 2: We gap up above 429. I would sit back and see if SPY can break 431. If it can, that would be a bullish indicator that the rally is not over just yet. We need a catalyst to get us over the this major level. 
• Scenario 3: We open flat. Just sit back and set your intraday Fibs and scalp away. This is a scalpers market for the next few sessions. 
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 

Levels I am Watching

What Happened? - 

• On Tuesday, we opened slightly down and the market broke under 427 for a brief moment. Then recovered to set another high in this trend to 431.80. And then it dropped rapidly 3 points. It ran right into the 200 SMA before it reversed. 

What to Expect on Wednesday?

• UK Inflation Data at 2:00am EST
• EU GDP data at 5:00am EST
• Retail economic data at 8:30am EST
• FOMC Minutes at 2pm EST
• TGT has earnings in premarket.

Current Positions and Plays:

• I have some SPX puts for Sept, and QQQ puts for December. I am as bearish as you can get. These are red at the moment, and I rolled the August ones into the September ones. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - We are nearly overbought in the 30 min and 1 hour, and are overbought on the 4 hour and on the Daily. 
• SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618. 
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236.
• 200 SMA is at 431.57. This is a big level to jump over. 

• QQQ Technicals - We are nearly overbought in the 30 min and 1 hour, and are overbought on the 4 hour and on the Daily. 
• QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382. 
• QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: Retail Data is strong (stronger economy), we will see chop heading into FOMC minutes at 2pm. If the minutes come out hawkish with no neutral rate talk, then I expect a sharp move downward possibly to 420.
• Scenario 2: Retail data is weaker, we will see chop heading into FOMC minutes at 2pm. If the minutes come out dovish and hint at a pause in hikes, the market is going to run to 440.
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 

Levels I am Watching

What Happened? - 

• On Monday, we opened slightly red and again the market bought the dip on low volume. SPY moved to an incredible 429 before facing some resistance there. 

What to Expect on Tuesday?

• Housing economic data at 8:30am.
• WMT has earnings in premarket.
• NOTE: Wednesday is the big economic data data day with Retail Sales and FOMC Minutes. 
• We have to keep an eye on 2 things, DXY and Oil. If the DXY goes up, that normally means commodities go down. If commodities go down, that helps keep inflation under control. If the DXY starts to drop, Oil will go higher and that will push us to a higher inflation reading in the future. But... DXY going up also does not help equities, so the DXY is going to be the key for me going forward. 
• Fed Speakers for this week:

What Happened? - 

• On Friday, the market moved to an incredible 427 with a slow uptick. Note it was the lowest volume day of the year. 

What to Expect on Monday?

• No major economic data on Monday.
• WMT has earnings on Tuesday in premarket so keep that in mind if you plan on swinging anything.
• NOTE: Wednesday is the big economic data data day with Retail Sales and FOMC Minutes. 
• We have to keep an eye on 2 things, DXY and Oil. If the DXY goes up, that normally means commodities go down. If commodities go down, that helps keep inflation under control. If the DXY starts to drop, Oil will go higher and that will push us to a higher inflation reading in the future. But... DXY going up also does not help equities, so the DXY is going to be the key for me going forward. 
• Fed Speakers for this week:

What Happened? - 

• PPI came in lower on the headline number and lower on the Core. This confirmed the CPI reading was not a one of. 
• SPY rocketed up to 425 and got us in a way over extended and we pulled back to under 420 near the close. 
• We are still at major resistance on the QQQ and SPY. This rally looks to be topping. 

What to Expect on Friday?

• We have UoM data at 10am. The last few weeks when this data was released, it has cause a positive pop in the market. I expect the same thing to happen today. 
• We have to keep an eye on 2 things, DXY and Oil. If the DXY goes up, that normally means commodities go down. If commodities go down, that helps keep inflation under control. If the DXY starts to drop, Oil will go higher and that will push us to a higher inflation reading in the future. But... DXY going up also does not help equities, so the DXY is going to be the key for me going forward. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• I have some SPX calls as I think we have about 2% left on this rally. I grabbed it near the 421 level on average. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - We are neutral on the 30 min, 1 hour,  and almost overbought on the 4 hour and on the Daily. 
• SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618. 
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236. I still hated every second of this @mcarter.

• QQQ Technicals - We are just outside of overbought on all the major charts, 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and on the Daily. 
• QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382. 
• QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support. 

WTF is Going On (Repeat)? 

• CPI has been released so where are we headed?
  • This is the billion dollar question. First we need to answer a few questions. 
• Why we moved up on a CPI reading that is still at 8.5%?
  • Two words sums up why we moved up, New Data. The market has the old data, the higher data and is going to react to updated data. And the inflation data came down, and more importantly the core came in flat from the previous month's number. Peak inflation narrative now has data to back it up. Fed's current rate hike plan now has data to back it up. So more importantly this puts ice on any emergency rate hikes or 100 BPS hikes in September. 
• Is that CPI Reading enough to move us up any further?
  • This was the big data release for this month. Inflation is the key thing the Fed is focused on controlling. So yes this CPI number offers optimism in the Fed's plan. So will it be enough to break over some technical resistance? That is what I am looking for. There is a lot of money on the sidelines, and does this start bringing that money back into the market. I think if SPY closes the week over 420, it is a big bullish win. 
• Ok, so what can bring us lower?
  • We will answer this question that no black swan events come in. We have the PPI tomorrow morning and that can pour some cold water on the market, but it is not a major data release. The next major landmine is looking like the statement out of the Jackson Hole Symposium from JPow at the end of this month on the week of the 22nd. Then we have PCE data afterwards. Bears only have technical resistances now to hang their hat on. We are overextended on the charts and it is ripe for a major pullback. But until that starts, don't guess on it. I lost $10k guessing it for the last two weeks. 
• So what is your plan?
  • I am watching QQQ like a hawk. If we break above 327, then I am going to play calls up to 335. When we hit that mark I will start to build a long term short position since the VIX will be low. This market will cool off and face reality that the bear market is not over due to QT and more Fed tightening. I don't know when exactly it is coming down, so I will make sure to give myself enough time. If we start to reject heavy at 327 and can't break over it, then I will play the downside as the current resistance at 327 is valid.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: We open up flat (+/- 1 or 2 points) - Sit back and wait for the 10am UoM data and see if we get above 327 on the QQQ. If we go up, grab calls. If it goes down, grab puts. We are at an inflection point but we will not have any major moves in this market. So you can scalp very small moves, but it also is a little safer to hold as we do not have any events to trigger larger moves. 
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 

Levels I am Watching

What Happened? - 

• CPI came in lower on the headline number and lower vs expectations on the Core. Market rocketed up to over 418 at the open. 
• The very interesting thing here is that we not only moved so much in premarket but we held it all day long and closed near 420. That is a very bullish sign. 
• We are at major resistance on the QQQ, so we will look more into that in the technical analysis section below. 

What to Expect on Tuesday?

• We have PPI in the morning. This could pour some cold water on the bullish move we got today, but I am not seeing it as a major indicator honestly. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• I am all cash heading into tomorrow. Just waiting on confirmation on whether we break above this QQQ resistance. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - We are just outside of overbought on all the major charts, 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and on the Daily. 
• SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618. 
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236. I hated every second of this @mcarter.

• QQQ Technicals - We are just outside of overbought on all the major charts, 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and on the Daily. 
• QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382. 
• QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support. 

WTF is Going On? 

• CPI has been released so where are we headed?
  • This is the billion dollar question. First we need to answer a few questions. 
• Why we moved up on a CPI reading that is still at 8.5%?
  • Two words sums up why we moved up, New Data. The market has the old data, the higher data and is going to react to updated data. And the inflation data came down, and more importantly the core came in flat from the previous month's number. Peak inflation narrative now has data to back it up. Fed's current rate hike plan now has data to back it up. So more importantly this puts ice on any emergency rate hikes or 100 BPS hikes in September. 
• Is that CPI Reading enough to move us up any further?
  • This was the big data release for this month. Inflation is the key thing the Fed is focused on controlling. So yes this CPI number offers optimism in the Fed's plan. So will it be enough to break over some technical resistance? That is what I am looking for. There is a lot of money on the sidelines, and does this start bringing that money back into the market. I think if SPY closes the week over 420, it is a big bullish win. 
• Ok, so what can bring us lower?
  • We will answer this question that no black swan events come in. We have the PPI tomorrow morning and that can pour some cold water on the market, but it is not a major data release. The next major landmine is looking like the statement out of the Jackson Hole Symposium from JPow at the end of this month on the week of the 22nd. Then we have PCE data afterwards. Bears only have technical resistances now to hang their hat on. We are overextended on the charts and it is ripe for a major pullback. But until that starts, don't guess on it. I lost $10k guessing it for the last two weeks. 
• So what is your plan?
  • I am watching QQQ like a hawk. If we break above 327, then I am going to play calls up to 335. When we hit that mark I will start to build a long term short position since the VIX will be low. This market will cool off and face reality that the bear market is not over due to QT and more Fed tightening. I don't know when exactly it is coming down, so I will make sure to give myself enough time. If we start to reject heavy at 327 and can't break over it, then I will play the downside as the current resistance at 327 is valid.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: If QQQ breaks 327, grab calls up until 338. This will take a few days, maybe even a few weeks. So I will grab longer dated expirations. I like playing the SPX here on the upside as it has other components to keep it propped up. 
• Scenario 2: If QQQ is rejected at 327. Grab calls for a short term scalp for a play to 323. Then see how it handles that level as that is key support. 
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 

Levels I am Watching

CPI Expectations: 

• Headline CPI (Last Month's Figure): 9.1%.
• Headline CPI Expectation (Year-Over-Year): 8.7%.
• Core CPI (Last Month's Figure): 5.9%.
• Core CPI Expectation (Year-Over-Year): 6.1%

What Do I Think?

• Technicals matter but mainly the levels. With a big fundamental event like CPI, you can't rely as much on technicals. This could be a nice trend day. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: Headline CPI is higher, and Core is at estimate or higher - Grab puts and ride SPY down to sub 400. Buy near the open and sell at the close. 
• Scenario 2: Headline CPI is lower, and Core is lower - Grab calls and ride SPY up to over 420. Buy near the open and sell at the close. 
• Scenario 3: Headline CPI is slightly lower, and Core is at estimate - No clear move here. I would wait for a possible move upward and look to play some more puts at a certain major level 413? 417? I am not sure, I will have to wait for the chart to show me the resistance. 
• Scenario 4:  Headline CPI is at expectations, and Core is at estimate - Same move as scenario 3. 

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 396 > 401 > 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > I refuse to go higher on the levels. 

What Happened? - 

• We got a surprise from NVDA about their upcoming earnings. They lowered their guidance and hinted at a revenue miss due to a decrease in gaming demand. 
• Market shrugged it off and ripped up to a new trend high over 417, and the meme stocks started to really move. The first hour or so was peak FOMO in the markets. We have not seen that in quite some time. 
• But the euphoria started to fizzle and the market dropped quickly to test sub 412 at one point. We closed near the big support of 413. 

What to Expect on Tuesday?

• Wednesday has the CPI data release in premarket. Nothing really matters until then. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• I am still in SPX 4100 puts for 08/17 and ARKK 45 puts for October. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - We are just outside of overbought on the 4 hour and now neutral on the 30 min and 1 hour. The Daily is also getting overextended. 
• SPY Technicals - The chart to watch here is the 4 hour imo. This is now starting to show red impressions on the MACD and looks to be finally getting a pullback to clear up the overbought technicals. 
• SPY Technicals - All eyes on the 413 and 410.50 levels. Break under 410.50, it is a quick stop at 408 and then 400. Hold above 413, and we are testing 416. Break 416 and its off to 420. 

WTF is Going On? 

• So CPI is on Wednesday, what is your take?
  • This is feeling like a big ol' bear trap. I expect the topline number to be less than the previous months by quite a bit due to the drop in oil prices. So it is all about the Core number. If that number is not hot (higher), the market will start its peak inflation narrative. That will rally the markets. If the Core number comes in higher, the market will dip to key supports on the indices (SPY 400? possible 396) then bounce from there imo. So either way I am looking for a bounce. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: We get above 415. I will grab some more puts and hold them into the close. We are going to de-risk heading into CPI. 
• Scenario 2: We get down below 410. I may take some profit here. But I am trying my best to hold these puts until the close. 
• Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 1 points). Just sit back and keep with the selling plan at the close. 
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
• NOTE #2: I would recommend selling any short term options ahead of the CPI release on Wednesday. It will set the trend and will move the markets in a violent direction one way or the other. 

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 396 > 401 > 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > I refuse to go higher on the levels. 

What Happened? - 

• We got the jobs data on Friday and boy was it hot hot hot. It came in almost double over estimates and it will put to rest a Fed Pivot theory for now. 
• My puts ended up nicely at the open, and I held a little too long but still managed a green day. Still trying to figure out the timing of these swing trades a little better. 
• The market recovered back to 413 at the close. So if the jobs report was hot, why did we recover from under 410? More on that below. 

What to Expect on Monday?

• Monday
  • No major economic Data
  • Earnings Premarket - PLTR and TSN in premarket. Watching Tyson for some clues on the food side of inflation. My guess Tyson crushes earnings
  • Earnings Afterhours - UPST, MARA, NVAX. This is a nice throwback to 2020/2021 retail darlings. Watching for entertainment and nothing more. 
• Wednesday has the CPI data release in premarket. Nothing really matters until then. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• I am in SPX 4100 puts for 08/17 and ARKK 45 puts for October. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - We are just outside of overbought on the 4 hour and now neutral on the 30 min and 1 hour. The Daily is also getting overextended. 
• SPY Technicals - The chart to watch here is the 4 hour imo. This is now starting to show red impressions on the MACD and looks to be finally getting a pullback to clear up the overbought technicals. 
• SPY Technicals - All eyes on the 413 and 410.50 levels. Break under 410.50, it is a quick stop at 408 and then 400. Hold above 413, and we are testing 416. Break 416 and its off to 420. 

WTF is Going On?

• Jobs Data came out hot, but we still recovered 413. Explain this please?
  • The market reacted negatively to the jobs report in premarket. The resiliency of the market recovering 413 on Friday cannot be ignored, but it also wasn't the green light to go long. Jobs data is important, and it was by far the biggest economic event of the week, but it is not on equal footing as a CPI or FOMC data release. The jobs data is like an extra topping on the pizza, it is important but not overall relevant in the grand scheme of things. 
• So CPI is on Wednesday, what is your take?
  • This is feeling like a big ol' bear trap. I expect the topline number to be less than the previous months by quite a bit due to the drop in oil prices. So it is all about the Core number. If that number is not hot (higher), the market will start its peak inflation narrative. That will rally the markets. If the Core number comes in higher, the market will dip to key supports on the indices (SPY 400? possible 396) then bounce from there imo. So either way I am looking for a bounce. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: We get above 415. I will grab some more puts and hold them into Tuesday. We are going to de-risk heading into CPI. 
• Scenario 2: We get down below 410. I may take some profit here. But I am trying my best to hold these puts until Tuesday at the close. 
• Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 1 points). Just sit back and ignore the market. No point in playing anything. 
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
• NOTE #2: I will be out of everything no matter what on Tuesday at the close. I am not messing with CPI data release. 

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 396 > 401 > 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 416 > 420 > I refuse to go higher on the levels. 

What Happened? - 

• SPY opened up flat and just chopped around all day. No trend day. 
• I am still holding my puts from Wednesday's overnight swing. 

What to Expect?

• Friday
  • Premarket Earnings - DKNG
  • Payroll Data at 8:30am. This is the big data for the week. Did it get leaked?

Current Positions and Plays:

• I did add some ARKK puts today for October. I am tailing a whale on this one. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - We are still overbought on the 4 hour and now neutral on the 30 min and 1 hour. The Daily is also getting overextended. 
• SPY Technicals - All eyes on the 413 and 415 levels. They have been the support and resistance for the last few days. A solid break under 413 and we are testing 410. If we break above 415, then we are headed to 417 and then most likely 420. 

WTF is Going On?

What Happened? - 

• SPY gapped up above 410 and really never looked back. Unreal day by the market to get all the way to 415. 
• My puts that I swung were stupidly red so I did the natural thing and averaged down into oblivion. I am now holding a lot of puts and I am not thrilled about it. 

What to Expect?

• Thursday
  • Premarket Earnings - K, CROX
  • UK Interest Rate Decision at 7am
  • Weekly Jobless Claims at 8:30am
  • Afterhours Earnings - AMC, SQ, FUBO
• Friday
  • Premarket Earnings - DKNG
  • Payroll Data at 8:30am. This is the big data for the week. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• I swung puts overnight and got pummeled. I did buy some time so I am going to gamble to see if this pullback shows up this week. If not, I am going to just take the Big loss and reset. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - We are now near overbought on the 30 min, 1 hour charts and the daily chart. We are back in overbought territory in the 4 hour charts. I mean by God, can we get these technicals worked out. 
• SPY Technicals - We are now comfortably above the big level at 400 for SPY. We tested 413 and blew right through it to 415. SPY is looking like it wants to go to 420. 
• Bonus Technicals! QQQ - We are overbought in 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour are overbought. And are almost overbought on the Daily. This is wild. Like how much higher can they push this thing...

WTF is Going On?

• So you just going to miss this entire rally waiting on this pullback?
  • Clearly, I am and fuck you for asking...
• Ok grumpy, what are you hoping for tomorrow?
  • The ECB announces their rate hike tomorrow morning at 7am. I will be watching how the DXY reacts to this news. If it starts to move upward to 107, the market will pullback. 
• Will you buy calls at all up here?
  • I just can't do it. The risk vs reward for calls up here is not worth it imo. I don't care if JPow is announced president of the United States, I can't buy calls with the RSI almost in heaven on all the major charts. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: We gap up above 420. I will roll my puts and go buy some whiskey and tissues to start my weekend early.
• Scenario 2: We gap down below 410. I will sell my puts and sit back and see if we are finally going to break down below 408 or if we will rebound. I will be watching the overbought conditions on the QQQ like a hawk. 
• Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points). This is a sit back and see much like scenario 2.

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 396 > 401 > 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 416 > 420 > I refuse to go higher on the levels. 

What Happened? - 

• SPY gapped down in the morning. The Pelosi drama got a lot of attention, and honestly it was just a catalyst that the market needed to cool off the overbought technicals. We hit 407 and then started another bullish move to 413 once those technicals got worked out. Then 413 showed its level of resistance and back down we went to 408 at the close. Was an entertaining day. 
• HKD stole the show again today. This Chinese company at one point was the 8th largest company in the world by market cap. (Thanks to the discord for shouting this out). 
• Afterhours had ok earnings from AMD and great earnings for PYPL. Should be a fun day tomorrow. 

What to Expect?

• Wednesday
  • Premarket Earnings - UA, MRNA, CVS
  • No major economic data I was wrong OPEC+ meets
  • Afterhours Earnings - LCID, HOOD
• Thursday
  • Premarket Earnings - K, CROX
  • UK Interest Rate Decision at 7am
  • No major economic data
  • Afterhours Earnings - AMC, SQ, FUBO
• Friday
  • Premarket Earnings - DKNG
  • Payroll Data at 8:30am. This is the big data for the week. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• I swung puts overnight and started off the day nice and green. Then got greedy and rode puts again as I thought QQQ was headed to 308. I got caught in a 4 point rally and Exited the puts at a nasty loss on the way down. Just terrible entries by me and it messed up my day. 
• Holding a SPX put going into Wednesday. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - We are now neutral on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. The drop we had, worked out the overbought technicals on the big 4 hour chart, however we are still pretty close to those conditions so we need a little more of a drop to avoid getting right back in that territory on the next move upward. Getting close on the daily chart as well.
• SPY Technicals - We are now comfortably above the big level at 400 for SPY. We again saw selling pressure at 413 for the 3rd straight session. We got under 410 and are testing the 408 level now. I would love for us to get down to 404 to create a longer rally on the way back up. 

WTF is Going On?

• Jobs Data was this morning, what happened?
  • The Jobs opening number came in lower than expected. This is unfortunately just 50% of the data. We don't know if these jobs were taken down or if they were filled. We will know the answer on Friday. 
• We got another pullback, all good?
  • We did get a nice pullback but then the dip buyers came right in and pushed the 4 hour chart right back in overextended territory lol. the pullback at the end of the day was enough to get us out of the overbought conditions, but now we need a little more of a drop otherwise we get right back in there with the next pop.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: We gap up above 410. I think I will sit this out until it makes a clear move to either 413 or 408. I am leaning puts still so just need to make sure I get a good entry. 
• Scenario 2: We gap down below 405. This will work out the technicals and see if the buyers show up. If they do, I will jump in some calls. 
• Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points). This is a sit back and see much like scenario 1.

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 390 > 393 > 396 > 401 > 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 416 > 420

What Happened? - 

• SPY started a little weak at the bell and then 10 mins later, it started a march to back above 410. It set a new high in this recent trend to 413.41. And then finally we got some selling pressure. 
• SPY broke under 410 and then hung around 411 near the close. Overall it was a pretty flat day with some hints at a possible bigger selloff coming.  

What to Expect?

• Tuesday
  • Premarket Earnings - UBER, CAT, BP, MRO, JBLU, MAR
  • Tesla Monthly Delivery Numbers (Not 100% sure about the release here, but historically they come out on the 2nd)
  • Jobs Data at 10:00am EST
  • Real Household Income Data at 11:00am EST
  • Bullard speaks at 6:45pm EST. 
  • Afterhours Earnings - AMD, PYPL, OXY, SOFI, SBUX
• Wednesday
  • Premarket Earnings - UA, MRNA, CVS
  • No major economic data
  • Afterhours Earnings - LCID, HOOD
• Thursday
  • Premarket Earnings - K, CROX
  • UK Interest Rate Decision at 7am
  • No major economic data
  • Afterhours Earnings - AMC, SQ, FUBO
• Friday
  • Premarket Earnings - DKNG
  • Payroll Data at 8:30am. This is the big data for the week. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• I played puts again on the overbought technicals and got a nice profit. Then I went back in for an overnight swing and got caught in a run from 410 to 411.
• Holding SPX puts going into Tuesday. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - We are now neutral on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. The drop we had, worked out the technicals on those charts. We are still overbought on the big 4 hour chart. Getting close on the daily chart. One more 4-5 point drop will work out the technicals 4 hour chart.
• SPY Technicals - We are now comfortably above the big level at 400 for SPY. We are seeing selling pressure at 413 for the last few sessions. We are looking at a breakdown under 410 and possibly under 408 before we see another move higher. 

WTF is Going On?

• Jobs Data is in the morning, what should we expect?
  • This is a key data point for this week. Keep this in the back of your mind when you are determining how the market will react, good news is bad news and bad news is good news. If we have above expectations in Jobs Openings and Quit Data (bad data), the market will react positively to this. This means a weaker economy which means a less aggressive Fed. The Fed is the major fear of the market and any hint at a dovish Fed will move the market upward. The theory is that a weaker economy means that JPow and the Fed will be more timid to be aggressive since the economy can no longer handle it. 
• Well we got the pullback, and the technicals are working out, so Calls?
  • Not quite yet. The 4 hour chart needs to cool off still and that will require a 4-5 point move downward. Until that chart cools off, you cannot comfortably be in calls for more than a few moments. Tomorrow could be the day though that we see the pullback. 
• So we made it through the big data week last week with a huge bullish run. Where do we go from here?
  • Tricky spot here honestly. We are in the clear for the rally to continue from a fundamental standpoint. We do not have any major economic data until the jobs data on Friday. From a technical standpoint, we are way overbought, so I cannot comfortably buy any calls and hold them for more than a few candles. But if we do get a pullback to 408, or better yet 400, it is a good opportunity to grab calls for a few weeks out and ride the momentum. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: We gap up above 413. This will keep the 4 hour chart overbought and again I will take my beating and hold my puts and wait for the pullback. I have time on the my options, so I don't mind taking some short term hits on them. 
• Scenario 2: We gap down below 408. This will work out the technicals and see if the buyers show up. If they do, I will sell my puts and jump in some calls. 
• Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points). This is a sit back and see if the 4 hour chart overbought technicals matter. If we start to fall, I will be a happy boy with my puts. 

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 390 > 393 > 396 > 401 > 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 416 > 420

• SPY opened up slightly green after AMZN and AAPL reported strong earnings. But the market was digesting a little hotter than expected PCE data. 
• SPY started a little weak at the bell and then 10 mins later, it started a march to 410. It reaches it, and pulls back to 408, then beings its march again to break 410 and hits 413. The RSI was over extended all day, and I got cooked playing for a bigger pullback. 
• This was the last day of the month and it saw the SPY have its best month since 2020. 

What to Expect?

• Monday
  • Premarket Earnings - None
  • Manufacturing PMI Data at 9:45am EST
  • ISM Manufacturing Index at 10:00am EST
  • Afterhours Earnings - PINS, ATVI, MOS (old fling of mine)
• Tuesday
  • Premarket Earnings - UBER, CAT, BP, MRO, JBLU, MAR
  • Jobs Data at 10:00am EST
  • Real Household Income Data at 11:00am EST
  • Bullard speaks at 6:45pm EST. 
  • Afterhours Earnings - AMD, PYPL, OXY, SOFI, SBUX
• Wednesday
  • Premarket Earnings - UA, MRNA, CVS
  • No major economic data
  • Afterhours Earnings - LCID, HOOD
• Thursday
  • Premarket Earnings - K, CROX
  • UK Interest Rate Decision at 7am
  • No major economic data
  • Afterhours Earnings - AMC, SQ, FUBO
• Friday
  • Premarket Earnings - DKNG
  • Payroll Data at 8:30am. This is the big data for the week. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• I played puts as I became married to the overbought readings on the RSI on the 30 min and 1 hour. I just kept bleeding money as I watched the market move up to F me in the A.
• I capitulated again on the puts and am just holding cash now.  

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - We are overbought on the 30 min, and the 1 hour charts, and the big 4 hour chart. Getting close on the daily chart. This is getting very very overextended. 
• SPY Technicals - We are now comfortably above the big level at 400 for SPY. We jumped over the 404 level and now looking at the next Fib level is 417.
• The market will look for any reason to pullback here. So be cautious and be nimble. 

WTF is Going On?

• So we made it through the big data week last week with a huge bullish run. Where do we go from here?
  • Tricky spot here honestly. We are in the clear for the rally to continue from a fundamental standpoint. We do not have any major economic data until the jobs data on Friday. From a technical standpoint, we are way overbought, so I cannot comfortably buy any calls and hold them for more than a few candles. But if we do get a pullback to 408, or better yet 400, it is a good opportunity to grab calls for a few weeks out and ride the momentum. 
• What could cause a pullback?
  • Literally anything can cause this market to pullback some. My guess is PINS causes it afterhours on Monday. Monday is the start of the month, so we could see buying trickle in all day. I don't expect much fireworks to happen on Monday, and if we revisit the 414 level, I am grabbing puts and holding them for a few days. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: We gap up above 414. We should see slight move upward and then the RSI will be so overbought that it will be time to pay those taxes at any moment. If we do drop, expect the selling to be intense to 408. Now this will be the big question as to whether the buyers show up. If they do, and the technicals are ok, then it is safe to grab some calls. 
• Scenario 2: We gap down below 408. This will work out the technicals and see if the buyers show up. If they do, I will look to jump in calls. 
• Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points). This is a sit back and see if the overbought technicals matter. If we start to fall, I will grab some puts. 

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 390 > 393 > 396 > 401 > 404.40 > 407 > 410 > 416 > 420

What Happened? - 

• SPY opened up flat and then had a nice pullback to 398.50 to work out some overbought technicals. Then the buyers showed up with a purpose.
• SPY closed near the highs of the day at 406.
• Then in afterhours, AAPL and AMZN reported good earnings and SPY took off to 409. Just a terrible to hold puts, and guess what I was holding like a jackass...

What to Expect?

• Friday
  • Premarket Earnings - Exxon, Chevron, P&G
  • PCE Inflation Data at 8:30am EST
  • Consumer Spending Data at 8:30am EST
  • Q2 Employment Cost Index at 8:30am EST

Current Positions and Plays:

• I played puts as I became married to the overbought readings on the RSI on the 30 min and 1 hour. I just kept bleeding money as I watched the market move up to F me in the A.
• Still holding puts like a jackass. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - We are overbought on the 30 min, and the 1 hour charts, and the big 4 hour chart.
• SPY Technicals - We are now comfortably above the big level at 380 for SPY. We filled the 401 gap and are jumped the 404.40 level. Next Fib level is 417.

WTF is Going On (Version 5)?

• What is the updated boxing match score for this week?
  • Round 1 went to the bears with WMT news. Round 2 went to the bulls with MSFT and GOOG guidance FOMC was worth 3 rounds and I would give it a 2 to 1 favor to the bulls. So the bulls had a 3-2 advantage heading into the day. Round 6 was the GDP report and it came in negative. Which was bullish (more on this below). AAPL and AMZN came in with great earnings and we are now sitting at 6-2 with the Bulls in the lead.  So in the biggest week of the year, we had enough bullish wins to push SPY to damn near 410. Unreal week. Last one up is the PCE data on Friday mornings. 
• GDP report was negative, Why did we go up?
  • This is the big question on FinTwit and to answer this properly, you have to turn off any biases you have. The biggest fear the market has is that the Fed will Paul Vockler us. If you are not sure who that is, then please Google him and watch every documentary you can on him. Jerome Powell for months has been saying how the economy is strong and how it can handle more aggressive actions. Well this GDP report proves that to be false, so the theory is that the Fed will now back down in September. Whether you agree with that or not, it doesn't matter. All that matters is the price action proved that enough folks with money do believe it. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for FRIDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: We gap up above 408. We should see slight move upward and then the RSI will be so overbought that it will be time to pay those taxes at any moment. If we do drop, expect the selling to be intense to 404. Now this will be the big question as to whether the buyers show up. If they do, and the technicals are ok, then it is safe to grab some calls. 
• Scenario 2: We gap down below 404. This will work out the technicals and see if the buyers show up. If they do, I will look to jump in calls. 
• Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points). This is a sit back and see if the overbought technicals matter. If we start to fall, I will grab some puts. 

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 390 > 393 > 396 > 401 > 404.40 > 407 > 410 > 416

What Happened? - 

• SPY started very green and just ticked up all day heading into FOMC. 
• JPow announced the 75 BPS hike and then said some sweet words to the market and we blitzed up to 402. What a ride. 
• Then in afterhours, META had a weak earnings report. Stage is set for a red day tomorrow. 

What to Expect?

• Thursday
  • Premarket Earnings - Pfizer, Tilray, MasterCard
  • GDP Data Release at 8:30am EST
  • Afterhours Earnings - Apple, Amazon, Intel, Roku
• Friday
  • Premarket Earnings - Exxon, Chevron, P&G
  • PCE Inflation Data at 8:30am EST
  • Consumer Spending Data at 8:30am EST
  • Q2 Employment Cost Index at 8:30am EST

Current Positions and Plays:

• I played calls on the JPow announcment since it matched my bullish scenario. My only error here was not getting a slightly better entry. 
• Holding all cash.

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - We hit overbought on the 30 min, and the 1 hour charts. They are now sitting just under it, but just barely.  The 4 hour chart is getting close to overbought.
• SPY Technicals - We are now comfortably above the big level at 380 for SPY. We filled the 401 gap and are now 404.40 as the next level. 

WTF is Going On (Version 5)?

• What is the updated boxing match score for this week?
  • Round 1 went to the bears with WMT news. Round 2 went to the bulls with MSFT and GOOG guidance. I said yesterday that FOMC is worth 3 rounds and I would give it a 2 to 1 favor to the bulls. This is solely in the short term, the report was bearish in the long run. So the bulls have a 3-2 advantage right now on the scorecard for the next trend. Tomorrow we have 3 rounds to award with GDP report, AAPL earnings and AMZN earnings. 
• Was FOMC bullish or bearish?
  • For weeks I have been saying in these previews that 75 BPS was bullish for the markets. Yes it is a rate hike, yes it is a bearish one. But this was a binary bet between 75 and 100 BPS. The lower number prevailed therefore the market was not in for a surprise. This rate hike was fully priced in. Now as far as the news we got today from Powell, that was extremely bearish imo. But the bearish action was kicked down until the September meeting. That is 2 months now of runway for the market to not have to worry about the Fed, and that is why we saw the rally we did. JPow is going to kick the shit out of this market soon, but today was not the day. 
• So we are free to buy calls and sit back?
  • No. We have some bearish landmines coming in tomorrow and I think we will see a red day. Bulls have to get through AAPL's earnings unscathed to feel comfortable swinging calls for more than a few hours. Thankfully AAPL reports tomorrow. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: We gap down below 396 due to the GDP release. This will clear up a little of the overbought conditions, but I would be looking at grabbing puts if 396 does not hold. 
• Scenario 2: We gap up and break over 404 due to the GDP release. I will be looking at puts as we would be extremely overbought again. 
• Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points) with a negative GDP release. I will most likely wait SPY hits 404 and grab puts again just to play the overbought readings.
• No swings overnight tomorrow. With AAPL, AMZN and then PCE inflation data in premarket on Friday, you are just guessing by holding honestly. 

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 390 > 393 > 396 > 401 > 404.40 > 407 > 410 > 416

Happy FOMC Day!

What Happened?

• SPY started red and lost the 393 support. It broke down to 390 and caught a minor lift into the close. 
• Then in afterhours, MSFT and GOOGL reported their earnings. Both missed but did some sweet sweet talking on the conference calls and rallied the market.  Bears everywhere are punching the air. Yet another reminder to not hold anything overnight this week. 

What to Expect?

• Wednesday
  • Premarket Earnings - Shopify, Boeing, Spotify
  • FOMC Meeting Summary + Rate Hike Decision at 2pm EST. 
  • FOMC Press Conference with Jerome Powell at 2:30pm EST.
  • Afterhours Earnings - Meta, Ford, Qualcomm, Teledoc, Etsy
• Thursday
  • Premarket Earnings - Pfizer, Tilray, MasterCard
  • GDP Data Release at 8:30am EST
  • Afterhours Earnings - Apple, Amazon, Intel, Roku
• Friday
  • Premarket Earnings - Exxon, Chevron, P&G
  • PCE Inflation Data at 8:30am EST
  • Consumer Spending Data at 8:30am EST
  • Q2 Employment Cost Index at 8:30am EST

Current Positions and Plays:

• I played calls like a fool and completely ignored my plan. The day presented me with my Scenario 1 and I completely ignored it... "Scenario 1: We gap down below 393. Sit back and see if it can reclaim it, if it can't play puts to 390. This is probably the most likely scenario given the WMT news. "
• Holding all cash.

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - We are neutral on the 30 min, and the 1 hour charts. The 4 hour chart is slightly above neutral.
• SPY Technicals - We are now comfortably above the big level at 380 for SPY. Next major level I have is 396.33. 

WTF is Going On (Version 3)?

• Yesterday you said this week was like a boxing match, with the Bears taking Round 1. Who won Round 2?
  • The bears definitely carried the momentum from WMT in afterhours to the entire regular session today. I would say they had it all in the bag until 390 held as support and then MSFT and GOOG's earnings saved the market. Bulls sneak out a win in Round 2 and we are now even. Next event is worth 3 rounds with FOMC and JPow's presser so tomorrow is a big big day. 
• Why did MSFT go up after missing earnings?
  • The saying in real estate is the three most important things are location, location, location. Well on earnings, the three most important things are guidance, guidance, guidance. And MSFT gave beautiful guidance. Now whether that is going to happen or not is another question, but the fact they put that pressure on themselves was all the market wanted to hear.  
• It is FOMC Day! What are you looking for?
  • I think 75 BPS is in the bag so that should not shock anyone. The thing I will be watching for is if they tip their hand for September and say 50 BPS is likely. That will cause the market to be setup for a rally. They have a break in August, so the next meeting is in September. That is a long time to not have to worry about the Fed, so that September hint will be key. Side note, at 2pm you will see the market tank immediately and recover instantly. It is an amazing thing to watch so turn on the 1 min charts and. enjoy.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: We gap down below 390. Sit back and see if it can reclaim it, if it can't play puts to 385. (not likely given the afterhours action)
• Scenario 2: We gap up and break over 393. I will be looking at calls to 396. I will then exit and just wait for FOMC. 
• Scenario 3: We gap up above 396. I will avoid everything until FOMC. 
• Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points). I will most likely wait until FOMC and just play the trend.
• FOMC Scenario 1: 75 BPS and 50 BPS hint, buying calls and riding them into the close. 
• FOMC Scenario 2: 100 BPS hike, buying puts for a few weeks out and just sitting on them. 

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 383 > 385 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 401 > Valhalla

What Happened?

• Choppy day with SPY staying in a range from 394 to 396 all day. This was expected with all the fireworks scheduled for later this week. 
• Then in afterhours, Wal-Mart drops the bomb on the market and announces a cut to its Q2 forecast just 20 days before its earnings report... Why? I will try and answer this below. 

What to Expect?

• Tuesday
  • Premarket Earnings - UPS, Coke, GM, GE, McDonalds
  • Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST. 
  • Afterhours Earnings - Google, Microsoft, Enphase, Visa, and Chipotle
• Wednesday
  • Premarket Earnings - Shopify, Boeing, Spotify
  • FOMC Meeting Summary + Rate Hike Decision at 2pm EST. 
  • FOMC Press Conference with Jerome Powell at 2:30pm EST.
  • Afterhours Earnings - Meta, Ford, Qualcomm, Teledoc, Etsy
• Thursday
  • Premarket Earnings - Pfizer, Tilray, MasterCard
  • GDP Data Release at 8:30am EST
  • Afterhours Earnings - Apple, Amazon, Intel, Roku
• Friday
  • Premarket Earnings - Exxon, Chevron, P&G
  • PCE Inflation Data at 8:30am EST
  • Consumer Spending Data at 8:30am EST
  • Q2 Employment Cost Index at 8:30am EST

Current Positions and Plays:

• I scalped some puts for a small gain just to feel something. I honestly should have just held off but I am an addict. 
• Holding all cash.

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - We are neutral on the 30 min, and the 1 hour charts. The 4 hour chart is slightly above neutral.
• SPY Technicals - We are now comfortably above the big level at 380 for SPY. Next major level I have is 396.33. 

WTF is Going On (Version 2)?

• Wal-Mart did what today?
  • WMT came out and announced a drop in it is Q2 guidance for profits. This sent the stock and other retail giants (TGT, AMZN, COST) tumbling in afterhours. 
• Why did they randomly announce this now?
  • This is the million dollar question. The easy answer is they wanted to get a head of it and limit the damage from the earnings call on 08/16. That seems ok, but it sent the stock down 9% today, so that didn't seem to work. I have a bat shit crazy theory on this and that in a weird way, this is yet another corporate entity signaling to the Fed to not be so aggressive with the tightening. We know that back in 2018 and even way back in the Volcker era, that Wall St throws tantrums over tighter monetary policy. Is this another version of that? Will this give the Fed pause to not be so aggressive on Wednesday and thus avoiding the hammer that it needs to drop to kill inflation. Again this is just my theory, but I am finding the timing of this to be a little suspect.
• So with the WMT news, its puts all week now right?
  • No. Think of this week as a boxing match. Today was Round 1, and yes it swayed to the bears at the closing of the round. But it was not a knockout punch. We have a lot of data to get through and a lot conflicting data could start to arise. In the morning UPS, Coke, GE could all report ok earnings. Then you are looking at the CCI at 10am and it comes in at expectations. That gives the Bulls the win in Round 2. Assume nothing this week until Friday. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for TUESDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: We gap down below 393. Sit back and see if it can reclaim it, if it can't play puts to 390. This is probably the most likely scenario given the WMT news. 
• Scenario 2: We gap up and break over 397. I will be looking at puts on any trend reversal candle. 
• Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points). I will most likely wait until 10am and see how that data impacts the market and see if a trend can be identified.
• This is not Financial Advice

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 383 > 385 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 401 > Valhalla

Historic Week Ahead

• First, I am sorry for not doing a market preview on Friday. I was pretty sick and honestly just could not muster up the mental capacity to do one.
• What a week we have in the markets. FOMC, GDP, Major Tech Earnings, PCE Inflation Data, and End of the Month Balancing on Friday, 
• If you are holding anything overnight after Monday, you are either guessing or have insider information. 

What to Expect?

• Monday - Nothing major on US Economic data or Earnings front
• Tuesday
  • Premarket Earnings - UPS, Coke, GM, GE, McDonalds
  • Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST. 
  • Afterhours Earnings - Google, Microsoft, Enphase, Visa, and Chipotle
• Wednesday
  • Premarket Earnings - Shopify, Boeing, Spotify
  • FOMC Meeting Summary + Rate Hike Decision at 2pm EST. 
  • FOMC Press Conference with Jerome Powell at 2:30pm EST.
  • Afterhours Earnings - Meta, Ford, Qualcomm, Teledoc, Etsy
• Thursday
  • Premarket Earnings - Pfizer, Tilray, MasterCard
  • GDP Data Release at 8:30am EST
  • Afterhours Earnings - Apple, Amazon, Intel, Roku
• Friday
  • Premarket Earnings - Exxon, Chevron, P&G
  • PCE Inflation Data at 8:30am EST
  • Consumer Spending Data at 8:30am EST
  • Q2 Employment Cost Index at 8:30am EST

Current Positions and Plays:

• Holding all cash.

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - We are neutral on the 30 min, and the 1 hour charts. The 4 hour chart is slightly above neutral.
• SPY Technicals - We are now comfortably above the big level at 380 for SPY. Next major level I have is 396.33. 

WTF is Going On?

• With all the events this week, why even trade?
  • If you are looking for a great week to take off to preserve your capital, this is the week. Don't get me wrong, I will be trading it everyday, but I am an addict. But, this is a great week to watch the market, not play the market. 
• Ok, Mr. Degen, what are you playing this week?
  • I will make sure I close out all trades by the end of each day and that I go light on any trade. There are too many events that can shift a trend in an instant. So I will play the trend for the DAY. If you are looking for a trend, it could come with the Fed announcing a 100 BPS hike, or you have to wait until Friday's PCE data. By then, you will have everything from the week.
• What would make the market go bullish this week?
  • I am looking at Google, Microsoft, and Apple to report expected earnings and guidance. I am also looking at Visa and Mastercard to provide some clarity on the consumer spending. If those all come in ok, with the Fed hiking rates by 75 BPS, that makes me slightly bullish. PCE data on Friday will be the cherry on top if it comes in at expectations. So some violent moves may happen this week, but nothing sustainable from a trend until Friday.
• What would make the market go bearish this week?
  • If the Fed goes 100 BPS hike, that is all the market needs to sell off. If they stay at 75 BPS, then you would need Apple to miss on earnings. Or if you can get any combination of 3 of these companies to miss in META, GOOGL, MSFT or AMZN. Also, if the PCE data on Friday comes in hotter than expected, the market will go down.  
• What about tricky DXY?
  • I will be watching this all week. If DXY starts to move way up, you can forget a sustainable rally in equities.
• You Keep saying DXY, What is that?
  • The DXY is the US Dollar Index. This historically has been an inverse indicator for equities and commodities. A weak dollar is good for equities. A strong dollar means a lot of things, and in this environment, it is serving as THE safe haven for all global markets. As other countries see inflation spike and their supply chains disrupted, it is further fueling the strength to the dollar as the only true stable global currency. In the long run though, this is very very bad. But we will get into that in a future post. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: We gap down below 393. Sit back and see if it can reclaim it, if it can't play puts to 390. 
• Scenario 2: We gap up and break over 397. I will be looking at puts on any trend reversal candle. Probably near 399. 
• Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points). I will most likely wait until 10am to make a play and see if a trend can be identified. I expect this to be the most likely scenario, and honestly Monday screams of a chop day. So the best approach will be to do nothing. 
• This is not Financial Advice

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 383 > 385 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 401 > Valhalla

Current Positions and Plays:

• I am feeling pretty sick so this preview is going to be a little light on the recap sections. If you want to find out what happened today, look at stonks superhero and greatest FinTwit user you have never heard of, Maverick's preview for Thursday. It should be out by 3am Thursday morning. 
• Holding all cash overnight. 

What happened? 

• I am sick, read stonks superuser Maverick's preview on the frontpage. But I will say that TSLA's earnings had some fluff on the BTC sell to help their cash holdings. 

What to Expect?

• There is no major US Economic Data this week.
• Keep an eye on the DXY and technicals. If you are trader, this is your time to shine. 

What Do I Think?

• QQQ Technicals - We hit a high overbought mark on the 30 min and the 1 hour. This caused the market to find any reason to sell off and GOOGL gave it the reason. The technicals are now still very close to overbought on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. The 4 hour is now getting close as well to overbought. The daily charts are still neutral, but are leaning to overbought bias.
• QQQ Technicals - We had a little pullback at the open. But then we roared up to the big Fib Level, 304.87. Then we say a pullback and never did clear that level. 
• SPY Technicals - We hit overbought on the 30 min, and the 1 hour. Same story as QQQ, we got the GOOGL news and back down we went. The 4 hour is now getting close as well to overbought. The daily charts are still neutral, but are leaning to overbought bias.
• SPY Technicals - We are now comfortably above the big level at 380 for SPY. Next major level I have is 396.33. 

WTF is Going On (Version 4 - Repeat of yesterday)?

• Wait, so the AAPL news was not bad?
  • Kind of... it is bad news. But it conveniently was released right when the charts hit overbought conditions on Monday. I think that combination led to the above average selling. The fact that buyers stepped in today and brought AAPL back over 150 is all I need to know about how serious this news is in the short run. 
• I am so confused... Is the market bullish again?
  • In the short term, yes it is bullish. A lot of the bearish fears are very much present but they are longer term issues. So this rally has legs for the next few major levels on the indices. Of course, if TSLA comes out with abysmal earnings the market will negatively react. But the odds and conditions are very much in favor of the market bulls in the short term. I am looking to buy the dip for a SHORT TERM play of a few weeks at max. This is still not a market where you are looking for any long term holds. 
• Ok, what about FOMC next week?
  • It is pretty clear that the Fed is looking at 75 BPS hike. I know, you know it, and more importantly the market knows it. So the market will move on JPow's words, but as long as the rate hike is not 100 BPS, I expect FOMC to not kill any momentum. 
• What is the big landmine this week?
  • It is easy to have bullish blinders on looking at the US calendar. BUT, we need to watch the. international inflation data. If the EU and UK come in hot, the DXY could explode upward. That will mute any rally we can have. So keep an eye on the DXY. If it drops, bulls can expect this rally to keep going. If it spikes, keep on your toes. 
• Is 75 or 100 BPS coming up next week? 
  • As much as 100 BPS was getting attention after CPI, it appears the Fed is still looking at 75 BPS. A few Fed officials have come out and hinted at support of 100 BPS, but have pushed strongly for the 75 BPS hike. The one member that came out and outright supported 100 BPS, is not a voting member. 
• Inflation is roaring up, but is it peaking?
  • The answer here is no and yes. No it is not peaking, but yes the optimism is there for the next report to be cooler due to the ass kicking commodities have taken since late June. 
• You Keep saying DXY, What is that?
  • The DXY is the US Dollar Index. This historically has been an inverse indicator for equities and commodities. A weak dollar is good for equities. A strong dollar means a lot of things, and in this environment, it is serving as THE safe haven for all global markets. As other countries see inflation spike and their supply chains disrupted, it is further fueling the strength to the dollar as the only true stable global currency. In the long run though, this is very very bad. But we will get into that in a future post. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: We gap down a few points. I am looking at buying the dip here for calls as the overbought conditions on the charts would be worked out. 
• Scenario 2: We gap up and break over 397. This should put us in extreme overbought territory again on both the 30 min and 1 hour and possibly the 4 hour. I will be cautious with my cash and wait for any pullback that will cool those RSI readings. 
• Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points). I will most likely wait until 10am to make a play and see if a trend can be identified. I am still looking for a pullback to cool those readings.
• I am now only interested in calls. But only on a pullback. The risk reward for both calls and puts here in the short term are dog shit. 
• This is not Financial Advice

Levels I am Watching

Current Positions and Plays:

• Let me start with some honesty. I was a fucking idiot with my plays. I held a put overnight in hopes that the EU CPI Data would come in hot and didn't realize that a rate decision would come out of it. A more aggressive rate hike was announced and the Euro shot way up and the DXY died. This killed my puts. 
• At the open, I realized I was on the wrong side of the market, I made the switch and bought calls at 10am. I sold them just 25 mins later as happy as I could be, and then I realized that I had made a mistake. I bought them back and kept scalping them until the 390 level. Then I got cocky...
• I grabbed puts not once but TWICE, and gave back most of my intraday gains. Ended red on a day where SPY ran 10 points. Hence the admission of me being a fucking idiot. 
• I called this rally last Friday, and I let the AAPL news shake my thesis. This is the second week in a row I have let something rattle me and put too much weight on the story enough to shift my thesis. Just frustrating...
• Holding all cash overnight. 

What happened? 

• Market gapped up yet again and didn't look back. There is not much to say here but Damn... SPY broke through 385 and 390. QQQ motored through 292, 295, and closed above the big 297 level.  
• The AAPL news from Monday was long gone and the market didn't care one bit about it. Honestly, it just felt like a technical move down when the news was released as we were overbought on the 30 min and 1 Hour charts. 
• We closed at the highs of the day.
• NFLX's earnings were a mixed bag, however the bullish narrative has been set and it was held up by the "well it wasn't as bad as we expected."
• Honestly, bears have to be just pissed off today. Everything is pointing the market to go down, and yet here we are with a real shot at a SPY 400 break this week, and QQQ flirting with 300 in afterhours. 

What to Expect?

• Earnings: TSLA and UAL report in afterhours. Tesla has the markets in its hands.   
• There is no major US Economic Data this week. 
• International Events are hot this week so we need to keep an eye on these as it will impact the DXY. 
  • Wednesday - UK CPI and PPI data, GER PPI data, CA CPI data

What Do I Think?

• QQQ Technicals - We are near overbought on the 30 min and the 1 hour. 4 hour and daily charts are still neutral.
• QQQ Technicals - We cleared 2 Fib levels today, and the next one is 304.87. I am looking for a retest at 297.26. We cleared that major level a little too easily imo. 
• SPY Technicals - We hit overbought on the 30 min, and the 1 hour is on the edge of being overbought. 4 hour and daily charts are still neutral.
• SPY Technicals - We are now comfortably above the big level at 380 for SPY. Next major level I have is 396.33. 
• AAPL changed everything, and completely killed all the bullish momentum. It is really tough to be a bull here for more than a few hours honestly. 
• I got caught up in the bear hype due to the AAPL news. It cost me dearly. 

WTF is Going On (Version 4)?

• Wait, so the AAPL news was not bad?
  • Kind of... it is bad news. But it conveniently was released right when the charts hit overbought conditions on Monday. I think that combination led to the above average selling. The fact that buyers stepped in today and brought AAPL back over 150 is all I need to know about how serious this news is in the short run. 
• I am so confused... Is the market bullish again?
  • In the short term, yes it is bullish. A lot of the bearish fears are very much present but they are longer term issues. So this rally has legs for the next few major levels on the indices. Of course, if TSLA comes out with abysmal earnings the market will negatively react. But the odds and conditions are very much in favor of the market bulls in the short term. I am looking to buy the dip for a SHORT TERM play of a few weeks at max. This is still not a market where you are looking for any long term holds. 
• Ok, what about FOMC next week?
  • It is pretty clear that the Fed is looking at 75 BPS hike. I know, you know it, and more importantly the market knows it. So the market will move on JPow's words, but as long as the rate hike is not 100 BPS, I expect FOMC to not kill any momentum. 
• What is the big landmine this week?
  • It is easy to have bullish blinders on looking at the US calendar. BUT, we need to watch the. international inflation data. If the EU and UK come in hot, the DXY could explode upward. That will mute any rally we can have. So keep an eye on the DXY. If it drops, bulls can expect this rally to keep going. If it spikes, keep on your toes. 
• Is 75 or 100 BPS coming up next week? 
  • As much as 100 BPS was getting attention after CPI, it appears the Fed is still looking at 75 BPS. A few Fed officials have come out and hinted at support of 100 BPS, but have pushed strongly for the 75 BPS hike. The one member that came out and outright supported 100 BPS, is not a voting member. 
• Inflation is roaring up, but is it peaking?
  • The answer here is no and yes. No it is not peaking, but yes the optimism is there for the next report to be cooler due to the ass kicking commodities have taken since late June. 
• You Keep saying DXY, What is that?
  • The DXY is the US Dollar Index. This historically has been an inverse indicator for equities and commodities. A weak dollar is good for equities. A strong dollar means a lot of things, and in this environment, it is serving as THE safe haven for all global markets. As other countries see inflation spike and their supply chains disrupted, it is further fueling the strength to the dollar as the only true stable global currency. In the long run though, this is very very bad. But we will get into that in a future post. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: We gap down below 390. I am looking at buying the dip here for calls. 
• Scenario 2: We gap up and break over 397. This should put us in overbought territory on both the 30 min and 1 hour. I will be cautious with my cash and wait for any pullback that will cool those RSI readings. 
• Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points). I will most likely wait until 10am to make a play and see if a trend can be identified. I am still looking for a pullback to cool those readings, and I am not in too much of a hurry with TSLA's earnings in afterhours. 
• I am now only interested in calls. But only on a pullback. The risk reward for both calls and puts here in the short term are dog shit. 
• This is not Financial Advice

Levels I am Watching

• I was holding calls on QQQ and they opened up nice and green at the open. I had all intentions to hold them until a 297 test, but that tricky VIX was also green. That scared me like when my wife looks through my internet history and I locked in the profit. 
• QQQ broke down under 294 and AAPL broke under 150, so I grabbed puts and scalped them all the way down. 
• Holding SPX puts for 3820 for 07/28 for an overnight swing. I am counting on a hot EU CPI number to push the DXY up. 

• Market gapped up again and hung out for the first half of the day at the QQQ 294-295 levels. We were in a tight 2 point range for most of the day, and then... 
• AAPL rattled the market with news that they are limiting hiring and funding for certain teams (projects?) into 2023. AAPL started falling, and so did the market. The intense selling was coming in fast and fierce and we were breaking levels like Usher was breaking hearts in the early 2000s. 
• We closed near the lows of the day.

• Earnings: JNJ, LMT, CFG all reporting in the morning. Not much here but JNJ for some guidance. 
• Earnings: NFLX reports afterhours. This is the big, sexy earnings report for retail.  
• There is no major US Economic Data this week. 
• Chips Bill is set to get voted on in the Senate on Tuesday. This is an obvious tech catalyst. 
• International Events are hot this week so we need to keep an eye on these as it will impact the DXY. 
  • Tuesday - EU CPI data, UK Bank Chair Speaks
  • Wednesday - UK CPI and PPI data, GER PPI data, CA CPI data

• QQQ Technicals - We hit overbought on the 30 min, 1 hour and then we dropped hard back to neutral. 4 hour and daily charts are still neutral.
• QQQ Technicals - 286.82 and 291.92 are levels on a major Weekly Fibs. We closed right in-between them at 289.40.
• SPY Technicals - We are neutral on the 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and daily charts.
• SPY Technicals - The big level is 380 for SPY. We are still above it, but if that level is broken... look out below. 
• AAPL changed everything, and completely killed all the bullish momentum. It is really tough to be a bull here for more than a few hours honestly. 
• Keep an eye on the DXY tomorrow. With the EU CPI data set to come in the morning, we could see the DXY rocket up on a hot read. This will be bad for equities. 

• What did AAPL just Do?
  • AAPL just confirmed that the itch the market has been feeling was in fact a STD. When the biggest company in the US announces that they are expecting economic turmoil and announce a reaction to it by limiting jobs and funding into 2023, that is a big hit to any market bull's thesis. Any market rally that happens has to include AAPL for it to be sustainable for more than a few hours. So all eyes are AAPL the next few days to see if it can show a pulse. 
• You Keep saying DXY, What is that?
  • The DXY is the US Dollar Index. This historically has been an inverse indicator for equities and commodities. A strong dollar means a lot of things, and in this environment, it is serving as THE safe haven for all global markets. As other countries see inflation spike and their supply chains disrupted, it is further fueling the strength to the dollar as the only true stable global currency. In the long run though, this is very very bad. But we will get into that in a future post. 
• What is the big landmine this week?
  • We do have the CHIPS Bill as a catalyst on Tuesday. It is easy to have bullish blinders on looking at the US calendar. BUT, we need to watch the. international inflation data. If the EU and UK come in hot, the DXY will explode upward. That will mute any rally we can have. So stay on your toes and don't be too biased. 
• Is 75 or 100 BPS coming up next week? 
  • As much as 100 BPS was getting attention after CPI, it appears the Fed is still looking at 75 BPS. A few Fed officials have come out and hinted at support of 100 BPS, but have pushed strongly for the 75 BPS hike. The one member that came out and outright supported 100 BPS, is not a voting member. 
• Inflation is roaring up, but is it peaking?
  • The answer here is no and yes. No it is not peaking, but yes the optimism is there for the next report to be cooler due to the ass kicking commodities have taken since late June. 

• Scenario 1: We gap down below 380, I will sell my puts and lock in profit. If we re-test 380, I will look to see if this level turns into resistance to enter some more puts. 
• Scenario 2: We gap up and break over 385. I will sell my puts for a loss and sit back and make sure this tech rally has some more legs in it. 
• Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points) I will hold my puts and wait and see how the market is reacting to the all the bearish sentiment. I will be locked in on AAPL to see if it can recover from the beating we took on Monday. 
• I am only interested in calls if we break 385, or if we test the big 373 level again.
• This is not Financial Advice

• I grabbed calls on QQQ at the open and rode it all day to finally get green at the end of the day. I did a shitty entry and was down like 8% all day but was handsomely rewarded with a 2% profit in the last minute of the trading day. 
• Holding QQQ calls for 290 for 07/27

• Market gapped up which as a nice kick in the scrotum for me not buying calls on the 373 SPY level on Thursday. 
• Retail Data came in above expectations which sparked the move upward. 
• UoM data at 10am brought bullish momentum and kept us in a range all day. 
• OpEx (pronounced "O-Pex" or "Ah-Pex" let me know which one in the comments. ) gave us volatility in the very last few minutes of the day and had us closing at day highs. It was frankly bad ass.

• Earnings: BAC, GS, SCHW all reporting in the morning. So we will have a lot of movement on the financial sector. 
• Earnings: INTC reports afterhours. 
• There is no major US Economic Data this week. 
• Chips Bill is set to get voted on in the Senate on Tuesday. This is an obvious tech catalyst. 
• International Events are hot this week so we need to keep an eye on these as it will impact the DXY. 
  • Tuesday - EU CPI data, UK Bank Chair Speaks
  • Wednesday - UK CPI and PPI data, GER PPI data, CA CPI data
• Keep an eye on the DXY and see if it stays under 108. 

• QQQ Technicals - We are neutral on the 30 min, 1 hour are close to overbought. 4 hour and daily charts are still new.
• QQQ Technicals - 291.92 level is a major Weekly Fib Level and we closed right at it. 
• QQQ Technicals - It is all about that Fib level above. If we can hold that level, the next resistance is at 297.
• Last preview, I introduced a new section. I am going to keep he section and expand on it and update it as the market proves to F me in A. 

• What is the big landmine this week?
  • We do have the CHIPS Bill as a catalyst on Tuesday. It is easy to have bullish blinders on looking at the US calendar. BUT, we need to watch the. international inflation data. If the EU and UK come in hot, the DXY will explode upward. That will mute any rally we can have. So stay on your toes and don't be too biased. 
• Is 75 or 100 BPS coming up next week? 
  • As much as 100 BPS was getting attention after CPI, it appears the Fed is still looking at 75 BPS. A few Fed officials have come out and hinted at support of 100 BPS, but have pushed strongly for the 75 BPS hike. The one member that came out and outright supported 100 BPS, is not a voting member. 
• Inflation is roaring up, but is it peaking?
  • The answer here is no and yes. No it is not peaking, but yes the optimism is there for the next report to be cooler due to the ass kicking commodities have taken since late June. 
• Why is tech moving like nothing is wrong?
  • Tech is the one sector that has been hit the hardest by this bear market. So a lot of names are attractive at these prices, and this is the one sector that is still managing pretty good earnings reports. The best answer I can come up with is simply, there are no major landmines for the next few sessions. So you can actually be safe in tech until next Wednesday when TSLA reports afterhours. So if you are looking to park some money in a sector that can move upward in the very short term, this looks to be the one. 

• Scenario 1: We gap up above 292, I will sell my calls and lock in profit. If we re-test 292, I will re-enter the calls on any bounce off of it. 
• Scenario 2: We gap down and break under 292. That would force me to hold the calls all day, and hope for a bullish rotation into tech. 
• Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points) I will hold my calls and wait and see if the chips bill on Tuesday can carry tech upward. 
• I am only interested in puts if we break 287, or if we roar up and test 297.

• Let me just start by saying I fucked up in a big way today. I had some real big dick energy this morning and scaled up on my position size for SPX puts. I was killing it at the open when SPY broke under 373 and I was feeling good about my Camry sized position. Well, then I did not honor my level system and did not sell at level breaks. And a few hours went by and my Camry turned into a used Yaris.
• Holding all cash heading into tomorrow. 

• PPI came in hotter than expected. JPM reported nasty earnings. DXY was setting new highs near 109.30. The stage was set for a market to break under 373 and head to lower lows. We got the initial break and then Waller sparked an oversold bounce with his support of 75 BPS hike with the possibility of a 100 BPS hike. 
• Then Trump said it is a matter of "if not when I announce my 2024 candidacy"...
• Then the house passed the dead on arrival Marijuana Bill to send over to the Senate....
• Then the Senate said that on Tuesday they hope to vote on the US Chips Bill...
• At this point my puts were about as solid as Michael Jordan's sons being better in basketball than he was. 
• Market closed near the highs of the day, with tech leading the way. 

• Earnings: WFC, C, BLK all reporting in the morning. So we will have a lot of movement on the financial sector. 
• Retail Data is set to release at 8:30am EST
• UofM Data is coming in at 10am
• Keep an eye on the DXY and see if it moves under 108. 

• I am switching things up and focusing on QQQ for the next few weeks. The reason is we got a serious rotation into tech today and I think it is a better play to the upside since SPY is going to get negatively impacted by the energy and financial sectors. 
• QQQ Technicals - We are neutral on the 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and daily charts.
• QQQ Technicals - 286.82 level is a major Weekly Fib Level and we closed right at it. 
• QQQ Technicals - We got a few more Fib levels to keep an eye on from the 314 to 269 recent trend. The one now in play is 286.
• QQQ Max Pain is 290 for tomorrow. 
• The last few days have been an emotional roller coaster with me jumping between a few dozen different scenarios in my head. Switching from bullish to bearish like a vegetarian trying to be vegan. So I am going to try and data dump some thoughts below in a new section...

• Is 100 BPS hike priced in? 
  • I think the fact that the market is even discussing it as much as it has, tells me this is getting priced in. 
• Ok Cool, but is a 100 BPS bullish or bearish? 
  • This one has me stumped a bit. I think I am going to be coward and punt this one for a weekend research post. 
• Inflation is roaring up, but is it peaking?
  • The answer here is no and yes. No it is not peaking, but yes the optimism is there for the next report to be cooler due to the ass kicking commodities have taken since late June. 
• JPM had terrible earnings, why the F did we go up today?
  • I got bear trapped on that move down. So this one really hurt to answer. The best guess I have is rotation. JPM is the biggest bank and that means their poor earnings were a signal that most of the banks were going to mimic that negative report. So money got out of banks and went pouring into tech.
• Why is tech moving like nothing is wrong?
  • Tech is the one sector that has been hit the hardest by this bear market. So a lot of names are attractive at these prices, and this is the one sector that is still managing pretty good earnings reports. 
• That's bullshit and you know it. Why would anyone trust tech in this market?
  • The best answer I can come up with is simply, there are no major landmines for the next few sessions. So you can actually be safe in tech until next Wednesday when TSLA reports afterhours. So if you are looking to park some money in a sector that can move upward in the very short term, this looks to be the one. 

• Scenario 1: We gap up above 287, I am buying calls and playing a bounce for a few days out with a target of 297. If we break 297, this thing is running like Usain Bolt. 
• Scenario 2: We gap down and break under 285. Do nothing until 280 or 287 is tested. 
• Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points) I will grab calls and again play a few days out with a target of 297. 
• I am not interested in puts for tech here, just given the lack of bearish events ahead on the schedule for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday (TSLA reports in AH on Wed). 

• I scalped SPX calls for a nice profit and then gave it all back in one trade at the end of the day.
• Holding all cash heading into tomorrow. 

• CPI came in hot on the topline number with 9.1%. The Core came in at 5.9% and the market dropped 10 points in one 5 min candle at the time of the release. 
• The market opened up around 375 and then ripped up to 381 in the day. It was a running of the bulls in the face of bad data. 

• TSMC Stock has earnings at 2:00am EST
• PPI Data is set to release at 8:30am EST
• Keep an eye on the DXY and how it moves over 108. 

• SPY Technicals - We are neutral on the 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and daily charts.
• SPY Technicals - 380 level is a major Weekly Fib Level. That is still THE level to watch. We closed below 380 and that is a bearish signal. 
• SPY Technicals - We got a few more Fib levels to keep an eye on from the 417 to 362 recent trend. The one now in play is 373.
• It is back to the levels game for now. The CPI data came in hot but we are still getting peak inflation narratives getting thrown around. It had some sticking power, but it is a weak argument with the Core number coming in near last month's reading. 

• Scenario 1: We gap down and test 373, I am buying calls at that level and playing a bounce off that important level. 
• Scenario 2: We gap down and just break through 373. Then it is puts until 363. 
• Scenario 3: We never reach 373 and just chop around. This is a sit back and wait until 373 or 380 are tested. 
• As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice. 

• I scalped SPX puts for a nice profit.
• Holding all cash heading into tomorrow. 

• The market had a few swings early on and took a dump near the end of the day and cracked below 380.
• Oil was way down today, while the DXY popped to 108.50. Keep that drop in oil in the back of your mind.

• CPI Inflation Data at 8:30am.  This will move the markets.
• The CPI has two very important numbers, the headline number which is every component of the report. And the Core number which excludes energy and food. 
• This is a lagging report, so the data is important, but know that this report is pricing oil when it was at its highest (120+ a barrel). 
• Oil has dropped significantly this month, so the argument is there for this report to be an abnormality if it comes in hot on the headline number. That argument becomes invalid if the Core also comes in at a hot number. 

• May 2022 (Released June 2022) - Topline Number was 8.6%. CPI Core was 6.0%.
• April 2022 (Released May 2022) - Topline Number was 8.3%. CPI Core was 6.2%.
• March 2022 (Released April 2022) - Topline Number was 8.5%. CPI Core rate was 6.5%.
• Feb 2022 (Released March 2022) - Topline Number was 7.9%. CPI Core rate was 6.4%.
• Jan 2022 (Released Feb 2022) - Topline Number was 7.5%. CPI Core rate was 6.0%.

• The estimate for the Topline is 8.8%. The Core is 5.7%.
• So we have a high estimate on the topline and the core is expected to go down. This is all about the energy and food. 

• Scenario 1 - CPI comes in above expectations, 9%+ on the topline and Core stays near 6%
  • Bullish Argument - None
  • Bearish Argument - The market will make new lows. This shows that the Fed's actions have not been able to control inflation and with Core going up, there is no blaming this upward inflation pressure on the Ukraine war since the core ignores energy and food prices. 
• Scenario 2 - CPI comes in above expectations on the topline, but flat or down on the Core:
  • Bullish Argument - Core not going up means that the rise inflation can be blamed on the Ukraine War and its impact on gas on food. This would start the narrative that inflation is actually peaking as we have seen relief on oil in July so far. 
  • Bearish Argument - Core is bullshit. How can you measure inflation without oil and food. Furthermore, how can you blame this inflation rate on the Ukraine War when it became an issue before the Ukraine war even began. Topline number is going up and until that number goes down, the Fed is just proving that they are far behind. 
• Scenario 3 - CPI comes in flat at expectations on the Topline and Core:
  • Bullish Argument - Though the number is greater than the previous month, it was expected with oil. Core coming in at expectations actually sees a decrease from the previous month. This creates the same argument that inflation is only going up due to the war in Ukraine's impact on oil and food. 
  • Bearish Argument - Same bearish argument from Scenario #2 as above with Core being unreliable. 
• Scenario 4 - CPI comes in below expectations on the Topline and Core:
  • Bullish Argument - Inflation is starting to peak and the Fed's actions are starting to work faster than the market's expectations. 
  • Bearish Argument - Just because the expectations are not met, the month over month number is still going up. Inflation is still a monetary phenomenon and the Fed still needs to take more action to combat it. 

• Short Term Plays
  • Scenario 1 - I am bearish and grabbing puts for a few weeks out. 
  • Scenario 2 - Stay on the sidelines and enter to play day to day levels.  Can't be married to one side on this result as the bearish argument is not as valid as the bullish one. 
  • Scenario 3 - Buy calls for a few weeks out as the SPY will retest 400 levels soon.
  • Scenario 4 - Buy calls for a few weeks out as the SPY will retest 415-420 levels.
• Long Term Plays
  • Scenario 1 - Purchase puts and sit back. The economy is still headed to new lows
  • Scenario 2, 3, 4 - Do nothing long term. There is not enough data here with this monthly to comfortably enter any long term positions. 

• Scenario 1 opens the door with a 100 BPS hike and confirms at least a 75 BPS Hike in the July. 
• Scenario 2 and 3 - Fed will look at 75 BPS hike as inflation is still an issue, but this opens the door for a possible pause in hikes after July to collect more data before acting again. 
• Scenario 4 opens the door to do a 50 BPS hike in the July meeting and again a possibility to pause hikes after the July meeting to see if inflation can start trending downward. 

• I scalped SPX calls for a nice profit. I gave some profit back with a put lotto at the end of the day. 
• Holding all cash heading into tomorrow. 

• The market just slowly grinded up all day. Opened up above 385 and just slowly moved all the way to the 389. This was a pure algo technical move. 

• Nonfarm payrolls data on Friday at 8:30am.  This will move the markets

• SPY Technicals - We are almost overbought on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. The 4 hour and daily remains neutral.
• SPY Technicals - 380 level is a major Weekly Fib Level. That is still THE level to watch. As long as we stay above this level, bulls are safe. 
• SPY Technicals - We got a few more Fib levels to keep an eye on from the 417 to 362 recent trend. The one now in play is 389.81
• Jobs Data will be important to watch. Below are the scenarios I am looking for. 

• Scenario 1: Nonfarm Payroll data comes in with slight losses in jobs, then the market moves upward. Looking at a 390 break and a march to 400. 
• Scenario 2: Nonfarm Payroll data comes in with more jobs created, then the market moves downward. Looking at a drop back to 383 and possibly 380.
• Good news = bad news for Wall Street. The Fed is the fear and with a strong economy, that means the market is not responding to the Fed's tightening measures so they will need to be more aggressive. 
• As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice. 

• I swung SPX calls and sold at the pop at the open. I then scalped some more calls after the FOMC minutes.
• Holding all cash heading into tomorrow. 

• The market opened up slightly green and ran right into the 383 level and got smacked back down. 
• The jobs opening data came in flat. No real change there meant that we were going to be choppy heading into the FOMC minutes at 2pm.
• The FOMC minutes were released and it confirmed the hawkish tone that the Fed had shown in the last minute. So again, no real new information in it so the market rocketed up to 385 shortly after the release. 
• The close saw a drop back to the 383 level when the 30 min chart hit overbought on the RSI, which was the early resistance for the day. Looks like it has now turned into support. 

• With the Job Openings and FOMC minutes out of the way, we now just have the Nonfarm payrolls data on Friday.   

• SPY Technicals - We are neutral on all the major charts. 
• SPY Technicals - 380 level is a major Weekly Fib Level. That is still THE level to watch. As long as we stay above this level, bulls are safe. 
• SPY Technicals - We got a few more Fib levels to keep an eye on from the 417 to 362 recent trend. The one now in play is 383.28. Next one is 389.81
• The last few times we have had a nice upward move from any Fed news, the next day has seen heavy selling. That is the main reason I am all cash now. No reason to guess on the direction.

• I will look at a 383.28 (Fib level) retest. I am still bullish, but I will be extra cautious moving forward now since we have hit my original 385 target. I got my eye on the RSI and will bail on my bullish views if the 30 min chart starts getting in the overbought territory again.  
• It is all about the levels for me. 380 is a big level, if that breaks, we can look at puts possibly to the 373 level again. 
• A 385 break and I will look at calls until 390 (another Fib Level).
• As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice. 

• I got very fortunate with my SPX call to finish the day green. I was way under water on it at the open and averaged down at the 373.80 level. It ended up paying off. 
• Holding SPX 3835 call for 07/14

• The market gapped down to 376 at the open and dropped all the way to 373 level. This drop was due to the DXY roaring up and Oil dropping as well. 
• The market found support at 373 and rocketed up in the second half of the day to close above 381. Tech carried the markets today. 

• Jobs Data on Wednesday
• FOMC Minutes on Wednesday
• Nonfarm payrolls data on Friday 

• SPY Technicals - We are neutral on all the major charts
• SPY Technicals - 380 level is a major Weekly Fib Level. That is THE level to watch. 
• SPY Technicals - We got a few more Fib levels to keep an eye on from the 417 to 362 recent trend. 
• FOMC Minutes - We will get some bearish sentiment from these minutes, but I am not sure any new information will be presented. So I am not expecting much negative impact out of the FOMC minutes. 

• I am in calls and will look for a 383.28 (Fib level) test. I am hoping for a gap up over that, but if we don't get that in the futures, then I will look to sell my calls at this initial test if it comes. 
• It is all about the levels for me. 380 is a big level, if that breaks, we can look at puts possibly to the 373 level again. 
• A 385 break and I will look at calls until 390 (another Fib Level).
• As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice. 

• I had swung a SPX call for a nice gain, and am now back to holding another call position overnight.
• Holding SPX 3830 call for 07/14

• The market had a nice spike to 380 near the open and dropped quickly to the high 373 area. That quickly found support and hung out at 376 for hours. 
• We finally had a nice upward move in to the close to above 381. 
• A good ol' fashion low volume, holiday weekend pump

• We have some landmines on Wednesday and Friday that we need to keep an eye on.  
• Jobs Data on Wednesday
• FOMC Minutes on Wednesday
• Nonfarm payrolls data on Friday 

• SPY Technicals - We are almost overbought on the 30 min and 1 hour timeframes, but not there yet. Neutral on the 4 hour and Daily charts. 
• SPY Technicals - 380 level is a major Weekly Fib Level. That is THE level to watch. 
• SPY Technicals - We got a few more Fib levels to keep an eye on from the 417 to 362 recent trend. 

• With no pending economic data for Tuesday, it is back to playing the technicals and levels. 
• I am in calls and will look for a 383.28 (Fib level) test. If we get that, I will sell my calls. 
• It is all about the levels for me. 380 is a big level, if that breaks, we can look at puts possibly to the 373 level. 
• A 385 break and I will look at calls until 390 (another Fib Level).
• Pretty clear path here with these levels. 
• As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice. 

• I had swung a SPX put for a nice gain, and am now back to holding another position overnight. This time it is calls. 
• Holding SPX 3770 call for 07/11

• PCE came in right at expectations with the Core coming below it. That was a pretty favorable reading all things considering. 
• The PCE spending did go down for the first time since December and I believe this is what led to the initial sell off at the open. 
• SPY dropped to 373 and started to catch some bids down there. It then went on an absolute tear all the way back to 380. It tested 380 a few more times but ultimately got rejected. 
• This was the end of the quarter so there were a lot of wild swings happening in the final minutes. 

• PMI numbers in the morning, but nothing major at all heading into the holiday weekend. 
• There are no major economic data releases until the Jobs data next Wednesday. 

• SPY Technicals - Neutral on all the major timeframes. 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily charts. 
• SPY Technicals - 380 level is a major Weekly Fib Level. That is THE level to watch. 

• With no pending economic data due for a week, it is back to playing the technicals and levels. 
• I am in calls, and honestly I have this absurd level of confidence in them. I do not see much in the way of a low volume steady uptick movement with the holiday weekend approaching.I am keeping an eye on the following items:
• If the DXY gets above 105, exit any calls and scalp very short term put plays. 
• If the QQQ breaks under 275, exit the calls and sit on the sidelines.
• If the VIX breaks above 30 and holds it, exit calls.
• If any of these 3 scenarios present themselves, then my calls are toast. But until then, I have no reason to sell them until the next data release. If this turns into a bear market rally, my target is 400.
• I don't see much opportunity for puts at these levels, but if some unforeseen event presents itself, then I will adjust and switch to puts. 
• As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice. 

• I played an SPX put at the 380 level early in the morning and held it all day. My entry was poor and I ended up holding overnight. All week I said the one day to not hold overnight was Wednesday and I convinced myself to do it anyways.... 
• Holding a SPX 3810p for 07/08

• The market opened up slightly green and tested 382. 
• The GDP revision data came in a little worse and JPow had a roundtable with other global central bank leaders at the ECB Conference. Both of these events ended up being a nothing burger. 
• We hugged 380 all day and it is clearly the line in the sand heading into the PCE data release. 
• DXY broke above 105 and the 10 Year dropped. This is telling me money is moving to the bond market again, which is bad for equities. 

• Futures have gapped down Thursday morning ahead of the PCE release. Crypto and European markets are down bad, which could make the rest of the day very painful for bulls if that PCE release comes in hot. 
• Thursday - PCE inflation data is released in premarket (this is the Fed's preferred metric)
• Thursday - End of the quarter, so I expect some volatility.

• SPY Technicals - Neutral on all the major timeframes. 4hour and Daily charts. 
• SPY Technicals - We closed at the 380 level which is a major Weekly Fib Level.
• It is all about the PCE data release to me, so below are the scenarios I am looking for:

• PCE data Scenarios
  • Scenario 1: If it comes in at expectations. This could trigger a bounce at the 375 level as we have already moved 15 points down this week.  There are so many factors that go into the PCE, but I assume the Core Number will be the bull's hope for a positive catalyst since it excludes Food and Energy. 
  • Scenario 2: If it comes in above expectations (a hot reading).  Buy puts for a few weeks out and sit back. We are headed to new lows.
  • Scenario 3: If it comes in below expectations (a cool reading). Buy calls for a few weeks out and sit back. We are going to fill some gaps.
• The end of the quarter brings some volatility to today. 
• As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice. 

• I scalped a SPY put position for a nice gain after the CCI data came out below expectations. I sold too soon, but was happy to get a nice win. 
• Holding all cash heading into tomorrow. 

• The market opened up green and tested 392. Once the CCI data was released, we started seeing selling come in and it just didn't stop.  
• We ran right through 385, which was surprising to me. And then all the way down to under 381 at the close. 

• Wednesday - GDP data in premarket, JPow speaking at European Economic Conference at 9am. 
• Thursday - PCE inflation data is released in premarket (this is the Fed's preferred metric)

• Technicals - We are almost oversold on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. Still neutral on the 4hour and Daily charts. 
• Technicals - We are now testing the 380 level which is a major Weekly Fib Level.
• We have a gap to fill up to 400 on SPY. It is all about the upcoming economic data as to whether this gap gets filled. 
• I was bullish at 385, but the market just knifed right through it so fast that I had no choice but to sit back and see if any buyers showed up. They did not...
• I do think some data got leaked that triggered this sell off. Below are scenarios I am looking for:

• Scenario 1: If the GDP revision data comes in at expectations. This could trigger a bounce as the sell off today was too severe given the GDP data. 
• Scenario 2: If the GDP revision comes in worse than expectations. This could trigger a little more sell off and probably gets us to 375 which is a recent Fib Level for the most recent trend. 
• Scenario 3: If the GDP revision data comes in above expectations. This should trigger a nice bounce and could get us back to 390 in a hurry. However, be cautious playing this bounce beyond Wednesday. Something triggered the sell off today, and if the GDP was not leaked, then the PCE data could have been...
• I do not think JPow's talk will have much of an impact.
• I will not be holding anything overnight on Wednesday due to the PCE inflation data releases happening in premarket the next day. 
• As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice. 

• Holding all cash heading into tomorrow. 

• The market opened up green and immediately started coming back down under 390, and hung around 388 pretty much all day. 
• It was a flat choppy mess all day that stuck around VWAP. 
• Honestly the only takeaway I have from today is how strong the market was to hold most of Friday's gains and not completely sell off.

• Tuesday has a data release at 10am that could spark the market a bit more with the Consumer confidence index.
• There are some major landmines this week on the calendar. But nothing until Wednesday morning.
• Wednesday - GDP data in premarket, JPow speaking at European Economic Conference at 9am. 
• Thursday - PCE inflation data is released in premarket (this is the Fed's preferred metric)

• Technicals - We are no longer overbought on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. So neutral on those charts plus the 4hour and Daily charts. 
• Technicals - We are holding above 385 pretty well, but I see that test is slowly coming.  
• We have a gap to fill up to 400 on SPY. This should get filled as long as the economic data this week does not come in too hot. 

• If we retest 385 on Tuesday, I will grab calls as I think we retest 390 again and ultimately head to 400. 
• I am not seeing much of a reason to play puts here unless we just knife right through 383. That would signal a 380 test is coming, so a quick scalp could be had. 
• However, I will be looking at calls at 385, and if the market keep diving, I will double up at 380. 
• If we break under 380 soundly, then I know any play on calls is risky. 
• I will not be holding anything overnight on Tuesday and Wednesday due to the economic data releases happening in premarket the next day. 
• As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice. 

• Holding all cash heading into tomorrow. 

• Futures gapped up above the 380 level on no major news. It opened up at 381 and never looked back. 
• At 10am the market exploded up on the UofM consumer data and a revision of new home sales which saw a huge uptick from the expectations. 
• My only thought is that the data was leaked as to why the futures exploded. 
• The VIX broke at 10am and we rocketed up to 387 and just stopped for a few hours. Then the end of the day saw another burst upward and we closed at the high of the day at 390. We filled a 10 point gap in 1 trading session. Unreal. 

• There are some major landmines this week on the calendar. But nothing until Wednesday morning. 
• Wednesday - GDP data in premarket, JPow speaking at European Economic Conference at 9am. 
• Thursday - PCE inflation data is released in premarket (this is the Fed's preferred metric)

• Technicals - We are overbought on the 30 min and 1 hour charts. Still neutral on the 4hour and Daily charts. 
• Technicals - We cheated in futures on Friday morning and skipped a few levels. I expect us to at least retest 385. 
• We have a gap to fill up to 400 on SPY. This should get filled as long as the economic data this week does not come in too hot. 

• If we retest 385 on Monday, I will grab calls as I think we retest 390 again and ultimately head to 400. 
• I am not seeing much of a reason to play puts here unless we just knife right through 383. That would signal a 380 test is coming, so a quick scalp could be had. 
• However, I will be looking at calls at 385, and if the market keep diving, I will double up at 380. 
• If we break under 380 soundly, then I know any play on calls is risky. 
• As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice. 

• Scalped some SPY puts very early in the day for a small profit. And then I was waiting for the drop to 373, and got trigger happy and entered calls on the 375 test.  I rode it all the way down to 373 and back up to 376 for a small profit. This was a misplay on my part, and I was fortunate to get some profit out of it. 
• Holding all cash heading into tomorrow. 

• Futures gapped up and it was trying to clear 378 level in premarket. SPY struggled to clear that level early on and got rejected right near it. 
• JPow had a hearing with the House at 10am and about halfway through, the market started turning downward. The questions were much more tougher in this hearing and JPow was struggling with them at times. Once he was done with the hearing, we started diving to 373 and got a nice technical bounce all the way to 377. 
• We then got some odd oil news about a flare up at a Marathon 66 refinery. Not sure why, but this sent oil way up and in turn pushed SPY over 378.

• Bullard speaks at 7:30am
• UofM Consumer Sentiment and inflation data in the morning at 10am. 
• Fed Speaker Daly speaks at 4pm
  
  

• Technicals - We are not oversold on any major charts. Again, we are still in no man's land. So it is time to keep an eye on Levels and Fibs (yes, I mentioned Fibs again for you guys in the discord). 
• We still have a gap to fill up to 380 on SPY. It has been teasing getting to this level for the last few days. We are so close. 
• Until we break out of this 373 to 380 range, I am not sure why else I would change my strategy.

• This is a repeat of the same strategy I have used all week. 
• If we retest 373, I will keep an eye on how it reacts to it. If it holds, I am in calls for a few points. 
• If we test 380, I will be buying puts if it is rejected. 
• If we break under 370, I will be playing puts as we should slowly bleed out. 
• As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice. 

• Scalped some SPX calls on the 373 break for a nice quick win at the open. This is the same setup I had on Tuesday
• Holding all cash heading into tomorrow. 

• Futures gapped down on a plethora of international news. UK reported high inflation, Canada reported high inflation, and Lithuania is at odds with Russia.  
• JPow had a hearing with the Senate that started at the open. The market shook off the international news and started moving up and erased the losses from the bloodbath in  futures. 
• The close saw some intense selling in the last 5 minutes so it will be interesting if the futures hold that bearish trend. 

• PMI data in the morning. Not expecting much from this. 
• JPow testifies the House Financial Committee at 10am. This will be a repeat of Wednesday's hearing, so I am not expecting much. 
• Fri - Bullard speaks at 7:30am. Daly talks at 4pm.
  
  

• Technicals - We are not oversold on any major charts. Again, we are in no man's land. So it is time to keep an eye on Levels and Fibs. 
• We still have a gap to fill up to 380 on SPY. It has been teasing getting to this level for the last few days. 
• I am still bullish even with the sell off at the close. As long as we hold 373, I think it is safe for me to enter calls up until 377-378.

• This is a repeat of Wednesday's strategy. 
• If we retest 373, I will keep an eye on how it reacts to it. I am still bullish until 380 is met, so I will most likely play calls if 373 holds. 
• If we break under 370, I will be playing puts as we should slowly bleed out. 
• As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice. 

• Scalped some SPX calls on the 373 break for a nice quick win at the open. 
• Holding all cash heading into tomorrow. 

• Futures gapped up and we held the gap all day. A lot of chop all day and we honored the 373 and 377 levels well. 
• All the gains were mostly in futures so overall a pretty boring regular market session. 
• Oil started to move upward again. Keep an eye on this...

• No major fed data events until PMI on Thursday.
• Wed - JPow testifies to the Senate banking committee at 9:30. Bullard talks at 12:50. 
• Thurs - JPow testifies the House Financial Committee at 10am.
• Fri - Bullard speaks at 7:30am. Daly talks at 4pm.
  
  

• Technicals - We are not oversold on any major charts. We are in no man's land. So it is time to keep an eye on Levels and Fibs. 
• As long as JPow keeps a hawkish tone, the market should stay strong. If he starts to sound dovish, the market will get spooked again that he is not serious about inflation and will sell off. 
• We have a gap to fill up to 380 on SPY. It looks like we may test that level soon.
• After JPow's testimony, I do expect us to start to grind a bit. So I am looking possible swing positions with these options. It will just be too difficult to get to the levels on the chart in one session. I will start to be a little more loose with my plays to allow them to play out over the course of a few days.

• I will be on the sidelines until JPow gets about 50% done with his hearing. So that will take me out for the first half of the day. 
• If we retest 373, I will keep an eye on how it reacts to it. I am still bullish until 380 is met, so I will most likely play calls if 373 holds. 
• If we break under 370, and it is because JPow moved us there, I will be playing puts as we should slowly bleed out. 
• As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice. 

• Holding all cash heading into tomorrow. 

• Friday seems so long ago...
• It was Quad witching day and we had some drama early on. The same day expiration option chain had some "technical" issues and folks were not able to close out positions. During this time the SPY plummeted to a new low to sub 363.
• The market recovered a bit from that low and had a pretty boring close at 366.
• Crypto kissed the pavement on Saturday as BTC hit under 19k and ETH went under 900. They have since recovered back over 20k and 1100 respectively.

• No major fed data events until PMI on Thursday, but holy moly I hope you like Fed Speakers...
• Tues - Mester at noon, Barkin at 3:30
• Wed - JPow testifies to the Senate banking committee at 9:30. Bullard talks at 12:50
• Thurs - JPow testifies the House Financial Committee at 10am.
• Fri - Bullard speaks at 7:30am. Daly talks at 4pm.
  
  

• Technicals - We are no longer oversold on 30 min, 1 hour charts. We are still oversold on the 4 hour chart. I am still leaning bullish here believe it or not. 
• We have a gap to fill up to 380 on SPY. It looks like we may test that level soon as the futures have been very strong on Monday.
• The key level here is still 363 on the downside. If that is broken soundly, we are headed to 350 very soon. 

• The level I am watching is 373 for calls. If that is broken, I think it is safe to ride this rally up to 380 and then take it from there.
• If we test 363 and hold it, I will go heavy in calls as that is major support, and will watch how it handles 370 after its test. 
• If we break under 363, The next line I have is 350... so yeah it will be puts for me. 
• As always all of this is my opinion and not financial advice.