• Monday: NY Fed 1 & 5 year inflation @ 1100
• Tuesday:  CPI @ 0830 ⚠️, FOMC Williams @ 1400
• Wednesday:  Retail Sales @ 0830 ⚠️
• Thursday:  Jobless claims + Housing + Philly Fed @ 0830., FOMC Mester @ 0845, FOMC Bullard @ 1330
• Friday: Nothing.
• Note: There are more Fed speakers on the calendar, so please check that.  I just noted ones I am interested in.

• Last week:  I ended the week slightly up, but basically flat.  Had a big mistake post-JPow, but recovered it by end of week.
• Economic calendar:  Unless you’re living under a rock, you know it’s CPI week.  This one could be spicy.  I’ll explain.
• Earnings: This is done as far as I’m concerned, so I’ll drop this point.
• The bond market made an critical change in positioning this week - they’re now believing the Fed that we’re going higher, possibly to 6%.  Mike @ Mott covered this very well - https://youtu.be/SGHtp3t_5o4?t=434
• The yield curve is 100% inverted.  The 2/10 continues to push higher.  QQQ was rising with it (shouldn’t be) and finally got the message late last week.
• The bulls sound like they’re getting a little sweaty up here — for the short-term.
• Repeat from last week:  I think we could see an uptick in CPI (as early as the March 14 report) and JPow to come in with a 50bps with new SEP.  FOMC next meeting + SEP will be March 22.  If not then, then it’ll be during the summer/June meeting.  Inflation is pushing higher at some point.
• Repeating from last week:  I expect pretty much any dip to get bought until either CPI reverses course OR unemployment ticks up a few notches.  No hope for the bears until then, because even earnings aren’t missing quite enough yet.
• Well….updated CPI consensus numbers came in last week and they ticked higher.
• Then on Friday, BLS released revised CPI numbers for previous three months.  All numbers ticked up, including reversing December’s infamous -0.1% to +0.1% - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4577589-january-cpi-report-shock-market
• MoM and especially Core MoM is what Bulls are betting on most.  As I’ve been pounding the table on, inflation isn’t dead - not even close - it just slowed the pace down for now.  Easing financial conditions (clearly visible on NFCI) + 25bps + Jolly JPow are only adding fuel to that fire.  Mark it - they will have to come back and hit it harder at some point - before they even pause - not after.
• Now let’s talk charts….
• SPY held a key number - 405
• QQQ basically held a key number - 300
• Opening under 299 should be a quick move down to 296
• Opening above 300 would be impressive, but I think it gets sold off by EOD (derisking this spicy CPI)

• QQQ 200 MA: 291 (well above it)
• SPY 200 MA: 394 (still well above it)

• Current position: I entered an NQ short on Friday at the close and added more to it on Sunday night for an average of 12,320 NQ
• I’m looking for 12250 at least, but 12200 before CPI
• I will NOT hold through CPI.  I intend to be neutral on Monday afternoon or early Tuesday at the latest
• After CPI, I’ll decide what to do - I want to review the data (not the initial market reaction)
• If warm/higher than expected, I’d expect QQQ 292.  I do not expect a ‘hot’ reading.