What Happened? - 

• CPI came in lower on the headline number and lower vs expectations on the Core. Market rocketed up to over 418 at the open. 
• The very interesting thing here is that we not only moved so much in premarket but we held it all day long and closed near 420. That is a very bullish sign. 
• We are at major resistance on the QQQ, so we will look more into that in the technical analysis section below. 

What to Expect on Tuesday?

• We have PPI in the morning. This could pour some cold water on the bullish move we got today, but I am not seeing it as a major indicator honestly. 

Current Positions and Plays:

• I am all cash heading into tomorrow. Just waiting on confirmation on whether we break above this QQQ resistance. 

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - We are just outside of overbought on all the major charts, 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and on the Daily. 
• SPY Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 421 is the .50 and 435 is the .618. 
• SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 418 is the .236. I hated every second of this @mcarter.

• QQQ Technicals - We are just outside of overbought on all the major charts, 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and on the Daily. 
• QQQ Fibs for ATH to 2022 low - 339 is the .50 and 322.54 is the .382. 
• QQQ Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 315.59 is the .618. Looking at this as support. 

WTF is Going On? 

• CPI has been released so where are we headed?
  • This is the billion dollar question. First we need to answer a few questions. 
• Why we moved up on a CPI reading that is still at 8.5%?
  • Two words sums up why we moved up, New Data. The market has the old data, the higher data and is going to react to updated data. And the inflation data came down, and more importantly the core came in flat from the previous month's number. Peak inflation narrative now has data to back it up. Fed's current rate hike plan now has data to back it up. So more importantly this puts ice on any emergency rate hikes or 100 BPS hikes in September. 
• Is that CPI Reading enough to move us up any further?
  • This was the big data release for this month. Inflation is the key thing the Fed is focused on controlling. So yes this CPI number offers optimism in the Fed's plan. So will it be enough to break over some technical resistance? That is what I am looking for. There is a lot of money on the sidelines, and does this start bringing that money back into the market. I think if SPY closes the week over 420, it is a big bullish win. 
• Ok, so what can bring us lower?
  • We will answer this question that no black swan events come in. We have the PPI tomorrow morning and that can pour some cold water on the market, but it is not a major data release. The next major landmine is looking like the statement out of the Jackson Hole Symposium from JPow at the end of this month on the week of the 22nd. Then we have PCE data afterwards. Bears only have technical resistances now to hang their hat on. We are overextended on the charts and it is ripe for a major pullback. But until that starts, don't guess on it. I lost $10k guessing it for the last two weeks. 
• So what is your plan?
  • I am watching QQQ like a hawk. If we break above 327, then I am going to play calls up to 335. When we hit that mark I will start to build a long term short position since the VIX will be low. This market will cool off and face reality that the bear market is not over due to QT and more Fed tightening. I don't know when exactly it is coming down, so I will make sure to give myself enough time. If we start to reject heavy at 327 and can't break over it, then I will play the downside as the current resistance at 327 is valid.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for THURSDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: If QQQ breaks 327, grab calls up until 338. This will take a few days, maybe even a few weeks. So I will grab longer dated expirations. I like playing the SPX here on the upside as it has other components to keep it propped up. 
• Scenario 2: If QQQ is rejected at 327. Grab calls for a short term scalp for a play to 323. Then see how it handles that level as that is key support. 
• NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 404.40 > 408 > 410 > 413 > 416 > 420 > 422 > 427 > 431
• $QQQ - levels 302 > 308 > 313 > 316 > 320 > 323 > 327 > 338

• Just read yesterday's post in the "What Do I Think" section 🤪. 
• But in all seriousness, we opened up with a nice move upward for just a few minutes and then the selling came in and dropped QQQ below 305.
• Once QQQ established support at 305, it started a really nice bullish move for a few hours to 311. 
• The Biden JPow meeting turned into a nothing burger with Biden saying he is staying out of the Fed's way. There was some fear that Biden could step in and force a more aggressive Fed, but this clearly was not the case. 
• The market did cool off a bit into the close, but not enough to end this nice rally. QQQ closed well above 305 and SPY above 410. 

• Job data is at 10:00am EST
• Bullard is talking at 1pm EST
• Fed Beige Book release is at 2pm EST. 
• QT starts, but it is not a major factor imo. $45 billion is nothing to the market in a month. For context, it would take the Fed 200 months to fully get back the amount of money they just put into the market if they stuck with $45 billion. Remember, just because it is a big number to you, doesn't mean it is a big number to the market. 

• We are still following the March 18th trend upward so I am going to stick with this as a roadmap as long as no new data derails it. This week has no real major landmines from a data standpoint and the stage is set for this bear market rally to continue. 
• I am looking at calls near the open, UNLESS we get some new data that surprises the market and turns is bearish. 
• I expect a very strong green day tomorrow with a possible 5-7 point move on the $QQQ.

• $QQQ - for calls 305 > 309 > 311 > 315
• $QQQ - for puts 300 > 297 > 293
• $QQQ price target for a current rally is still 325
• Reminder Note: This rally could take a few weeks and we have no real major data events on the economic calendar for 2 weeks. 

• Futures gapped way up on Monday night and setup a nice bullish day for the Indicies
• JPow had a press conference that ultimately confirmed his hawkish stance and once he was done, it sent the market upward. 
• We are in a bear market rally. 23 point move on the SPY in 3 days is wild. 

• Nothing major on the fed calendar for Wednesday. 
• Earnings for consumer services giants Target, Lowe's, TJ Maxx, and a few others. 

• QQQ held the 301 support today and proceeded to move higher on lower than average volume. This looks like a move to entice retail investors to buy this rally up. I will not be surprised if we hit 317, if the retail crowd gets over it's PTSD from the carnage of the last few weeks. Looking at calls if we move higher in futures tonight. 
• SPY held 403 beautifully and rocketed up to close above 408.  Energy sector really helping push this a little higher than QQQ. Just the same as the QQQ, SPY is now looking for any dip busts to move it higher. I think they start to show up tomorrow. 

• $QQQ - for calls 305 > 307 > 310 
• $QQQ - for puts 305 > 301 > 298
• $QQQ price target for this rally is 317
• $SPY - for calls 407 > 410 > 412 
• $SPY - for puts 407 > 405 > 403
• $SPY price target for this rally is 420

• SPY/QQQ - danced around until noon - then just roared after that.  Almost in a straight line.  I was thinking short covering ahead of AAPL and it might have been partially that, but this was best explanation I ran into: https://twitter.com/MacroAlf/status/1519753565635596289
• Trade: I played $QQQ  puts out of the gate since it popped and GDP numbers were bad.  This worked.
• Trade: I played (poorly) $SPY  calls, but still came out OK.  What I was expecting at the open happened at 12pm instead.  I watched in awe as it just. kept. going.  Bravo, SPY!
• This also started bringing my CTRA and LAC plays to life.  Still down on them right now, but they popped up a bit.  The market was dragging these two by their teeth, which I appreciated it, but not very bullish.
• This might not be so bad - more on that in the Looking Ahead.
• The most important earnings of any season - AAPL - were this evening - and while they beat, there were little nuggets in there that concerned the market. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/apple-aapl-earnings-q2-2022.html
• All around AAPL, earnings reports were missing - AMZN, ROKU, etc.  It’s just getting going, in my opinion.
• Apple was strong and optimistic even, but they probably aren’t the best predictor of “everybody else” due to their sheer size, pricing power, and supply chain swing
• There were a few hits - QCOM, FB - but I don’t consider FB’s positive - it was just “not as bad as they thought”

• QQQ puts - that’s my move on Friday.  AAPL for once let the market down so I think we’re in for some drilling.  There may be some end of month mechanical stuff, but it should be limited - it looked like most of that happened today. (See Twitter link)
• We’ve got PCE data on Friday at 0830 am - obviously going to be higher
• We’ve got the scariest man in the market talking FOMC meeting next week on May 4 - JPow.  It’s a bit tricky because they’ve set expectations pretty high that it’ll be at least 0.50 and maybe 0.75.  However, you did have the bad GDP number today and they can’t ignore these missed earnings and keep with the rhetoric “economy is strong” - nonsense.  It’s peaked and coming down.
• So, I lean towards JPow holding no punches on interest rate hike and starting balance sheet during summer - but the market may react to the 0.50 (vs 0.75) as positive?  Again, tricky.  I’ll do more homework over weekend.
• Money always chases something.  If the DXY (Dollar Index) will ease the hell up a bit + tech pullback, I’d expect to see a run on commodities - all of them.
• Natural gas and Lithium (CTRA, LAC) are my current plays, but there might be better ones (OVV seems to move better than CTRA).  I’ve got positions in these, so just going to sit tight.  I may average down if my view is confirmed.

What Happened Today (Tuesday)

• SPY was almost perfectly opposite of what I called last night - drop at the open, and run at the close.  Instead we got pop at the open (premarket) and drop most of the day.  However, I’ll give myself a little credit for recognizing I had it backwards once CPI data was released - and that’s how I traded it.  Puts from the open, on. 🔥
• Trade: SPY/QQQ - puts only, right until the last few minutes.  I didn’t stay in my couple trades very long, should have.  I really do need to learn to stay in longer with the golden tickets that I know are right. $SPY  $QQQ  for trades.
• ⚠️QQQ gave up 343 support today, SPY gave up 438, but clawed it back right at the end.  Both important levels for the bulls & bears.
• Trade: $LAC  - exited this right at the open on the $1 pop.  I had averaged down quite a bit and that ended up working out.  Exited at 4 (from 3.88), which ended up being fortunate timing, because it closed at 2.80.  I’ll be back in this one when the chart looks better.
• Trade: $CTRA  25c 5/20 @ 4.25 - These were real good to me on Friday.  I think we're got a rotation into commodities in progress, so I jumped back in.  It was a bit too early by the looks of it.  It pulled back all day long.  We'll see how this one shakes out.  There's plenty of time on the expiry, but I have no interest in using it. 😅

• We’ve got PPI (Producer Price Index) at 0830 EST.  This will have some impact, but it’s not CPI.
• I’ve got my CTRA calls, but not expecting them to move too much on Wednesday.  If they’ll just hold the line, I’m happy hold them over the weekend.  Unlikely to happen, but I can try.
• SPY/QQQ - I switched over and did one call just before the close for 12% on SPY.  It was a small position, but the turned looked clear.  This should continue into Wednesday.
• JPM does have its ER in premarket.  It could move DIA/XLF if it surprises.  I’ll have AFRM ready to go, if so.
• SPY/QQQ - I say relief rally in the morning… +4-5 points?  It may hold it all day and just chop, but if it doesn’t come pullback by EOD, then I am expecting Thursday or Monday at the latest to pullback.  It looks clear to drop to 433 on SPY and 333 on QQQ.
• I expect we’ll see those numbers within 2-3 trading days.  On shortened weeks and lighter volumes as you get closer to holidays, it’s always a bit more volatile.
• Watchlist: AFRM (if JPM surprises), CTRA (my commodities play), AMD (quick bounce only), LAC (looking for 28 bottom)

Followup to Week Ahead: March 20, 2022

What Happened Today (Monday)

• Monday-Friday: We've got Fed Presidents speaking all over the place.  Just look at calendar and expect one of them to go off script and the news to pick it up with a fun headline.  JPow on Monday and Wednesday.

• That happened!  JPow came in with quite a hawkish tone at his 12pm conference today - cnbc.com/2022/03/21/powell-say... 
• I wasn't expecting that kind of tone from him, but as I said...somebody was going to go off script this week - and it's only Monday.  He took a tougher line on inflation than his FOMC speech, mentioned 0.50% hikes as possible (needed, in my opinion), and the market was caught off guard.
• The QQQ went from 351 to 346 in minutes - tech will get punished the most by rate hikes.  SPY went 446 to 440.
• In no surprise to anybody, the QQQ/SPY recovered almost all of it by end of day. Bulls are running right now...
• Trade: Speaking of which, my overnight hold on $QQQ puts went poorly.  I sold the initial pop in the morning (high of day) just before it jumped off a cliff.  Ah well.  Puts are always my toughest plays.  I'm a calls guy at heart.  Which makes it tough with my bearish stance at the moment!
• Trade: I cleaned up on $AMD calls intraday, though.  It's a powder keg.  I couldn't resist holding some overnight, as well, headed into the NVDA Investor Day tomorrow.  I'll be out before the event, though, because these things are normally sell the news events, regardless of what magic they unveil.
• Trade: Added some $LAC to hold long-term (we'll see how long that actually is) at 30.17.  Big fan of this one.  Coming off that 24 bottom which I've been staring at for days.
• Trade: I exited $IPI disgustingly early at 14.25 (from 13).  It went to 26 by end of day, just didn't stop moving up.  It had no exposure to Canada, so it was 'the' fertilizer play.
• Ukraine/Russia - I didn't see any improvements here.  Same situation, though I'm sure we'll hear about more 'talks' this week.  I think the market is losing interest on this topic - for now.

• We've got three Fed presidents talking at various times on Tuesday.  No JPow.
• I'm primarily focused on AMD tomorrow.  The NVDA event is at 10am PST (1pm EST). I will be out well before that.  I also need to check on when they actually release information for the event.  Before? During?
• I'll be sitting back and waiting for a pullback on $MOS and $IPI - both are in overbought territory now - but there's an overriding, major fundamental event in progress.  So I might be waiting for a while.  I'll do it, though.  When the technicals kick in, it's fierce.
• Chart: That JPow dip worked out some overbought conditions.  While it didn't feel like it, we did close red today on both SPY/QQQ.  That was needed.  I think we see more consolidation on Tuesday with a bend towards upside, especially on QQQ.  
• We are right at the 200 on the SPY -- 446.  Once that breaks, we're going right to 450.