QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 22:23 PM - Feb 19 2023
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: Feb 20, 2023 - QQQ 295-305 range; FOMC Minutes + PCE.

Economic Calendar
  • Monday: US Markets closed - though Futures are open for a limited session Sun-Mon
  • Tuesday:  PMI @ 0945
  • Wednesday:  FOMC Minutes @ 1400 ⚠️ + FOMC Williams @ 1830
  • Thursday:  Jobless Claims + GDP @ 0830, Fed Bostic @ 1045
  • Friday: PCE @ 0830 ⚠️⚠️ + UMich @ 1000 ⚠️ + FOMC Mester @ 1015

Market Thoughts:
  • Last week:  I ended the week overall down just slightly, but I was very pleased with OPEX.  Traded that well and Friday I was nicely green to finish the week.
  • Economic calendar:  FOMC Minutes (is everybody else as Jolly as JPow?) and PCE will be the headline pieces of data.
  • Earnings: WMT and HD report on Tue/Feb 21.  I expect them to both guide down a bit.
  • From last week: “I think we could see an uptick in CPI (as early as the March 14 report) and JPow to come in with a 50bps with new SEP.  FOMC next meeting + SEP will be March 22.  If not then, then it’ll be during the summer/June meeting.  Inflation is pushing higher at some point.”
  • CPI ticked higher and you’re already hearing rumblings about 50bps may be needed again….it’s coming.  Just may not be as fast as bears want.
  • I’ll be interested in the FOMC minutes on Wednesday to see if everybody is as equally Jolly as JPow has been.  Out in the wild, they are showing some hawkishness.  To me that suggests and upward revision in SEP….again.
  • For now though, this is a bull’s game.  They’ve got the Fed adding fuel to the fire with the 25bps + general tone.  Every dip is being bought for the most part.  There’s many indicators in the bulls favor right now for data that’s known.
  • There was a sentiment change on Thursday/Friday - even if only temporary, when something went splat at exactly 3pm on Thursday.  Then we just went on a typical OpEx Friday ride of big candles going in both directions early on (mechanical).
  • This is a shortened holiday week and likely to be low volume until FOMC minutes and then PCE on Friday.  That normally favors a move to the upside.
  • DXY is going tick for tick with QQQ.  It’s hovering around 104.  A move down to 103 will blast it higher, a move to 105 will smack it down.  The script hasn’t flipped yet on that one.
  • However, there’s some technical indicators pointing towards a pullback.  QQQ looks on a path down, SPY a bit stronger, but it’s not far from its key 405 level.
  • Overall, looks choppy to me.  I don’t see a big move in either direction until Wednesday and then again on Friday.
  • SPY held a key number (closing) - 405
  • QQQ held a key number (closing) - 300

Technicals (Latest):
  • QQQ 200 MA: 291 (well above it)
  • SPY 200 MA: 393.61 (still well above it)

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: I’ve got nothing at the moment.
  • I just don’t see any clear trade today, but my lean (big surprise) is bearish mostly due to divergence of QQQ with TIP.
  • So I’ll be looking for an entry on a pop to go short and bet on technicals triggering a pull back.
  • Once that happens, I’ll be looking to go long - maybe.

QQQ + TIP overlay - short thesis

Screenshot 2023-02-19 at 22.22.03.png 448 KB


Login to join the discussion!
No comments have been made for Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1. Be the first!

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 - QQQ

Total Followers: 0
Link Copied to Clipboard!