Stock Market Week Ahead: Feb 27, 2023 - QQQ 290-298 range; many small events this week; technicals should drive.
Economic Calendar
- Monday: Durable Goods @ 0830
- Tuesday: S&P Home index @ 0900, Chicago PMI @ 0945, Consumer Confidence @ 1000
- Wednesday: FOMC Kashkari @ 0900, ISM - Manufacturing @ 1000
- Thursday: Jobless Claims @ 0830, Fed Waller @ 1600, FOMC Kashkar @ 1800
- Friday: Services PMI @ 0945, ISM Services @ 1000, FOMC Bostic @ 1145, Fed Bowman @ 1500
Market Thoughts:
- Last week: I ended the week up. I didn’t trade much, it was a slow and steady week. I avoided trading ahead of the events, just the follow on wave after. No complaints.
- Economic calendar: This is more difficult week than it seems. There’s no major economic event, but many smaller ones. Keep an eye on the calendar and step out of the way of any of them that might surprise you — ones I see are Kashkari speaking twice, the PMI/ISM data, and Consumer Confidence.
- Earnings: Target is on Tuesday premarket and Lowes is in Wednesday premarket.
- There looks to be nothing major in the way of fundamentals this week - though many smaller ones as I noted - so technicals are likely to run the show this week.
- The bulls got a punch in the face with PCE on Friday. It came in hotter than expected and the market moved down in response to spike in DXY and TNX.
- We closed well under 400 on SPY and well under 300 on QQQ — the sentiment took a turn last week.
- My overall sentiment has not changed - I’m bearish and remain so. It’s going to take months to play out there with the unemployment rate and insane consumer spending. I still think we’re just going to run off a cliff and ‘break’ something. That’s not today, though.
- We’re going to start hearing more about upcoming FOMC and for good reason. A 50bps rate hike is back on the table with these strong numbers out. A 50bps would be a blow to the inflation is dead argument, but more interesting will be the updated SEP numbers at this meeting. These will, without a doubt, get revised upward yet again. This should smack the market down. The next FOMC is March 22, 2023. JPow is looking over his glasses at us…
- So, technicals.
- We bounced right off the 200MA on both SPY and QQQ. I’d look for it to test it again. I am not convinced it will break it unless one of these many pieces of data this week is off the charts bad.
- It looks like a week of grinding out technicals with 200MA support holding and probably ending higher on the week. This will be my trade this week.
- It’s tough to short here (aka shorting in the hole) against that 200MA. I’d want to see it convincingly broken before I took a short out.
- Weekly and Daily charts say OK to hold short position though.
- NOTE: Next Friday is Non-Farm Payrolls - this will move the market.
Technicals (Latest):
- QQQ 200 MA: 291.15
- SPY 200 MA: 393.25
Trading Plan (This Week):
- Current position: I’ve got nothing at the moment. Traded NQ long tonight for some dinner money to start the week off right.
- I’ll be eyeing the 200MA tests for a technical bounce/long trade.
Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 - QQQ
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