QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 00:13 AM - Mar 06 2023
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: Feb 27, 2023 - QQQ 293-308 range; JPow + JOLTS + NFP

Economic Calendar
  • Monday: Factory Orders @ 1000
  • Tuesday:  JPow - Senate @ 1000; Consumer Credit @ 1500
  • Wednesday:  ADP @ 0815 (does this matter anymore?), JPow - House @ 1000, JOLTS @ 1000
  • Thursday:  Jobless Claims @ 0830, Fed Waller @ 1000
  • Friday: Non-Farm Payrolls + Wages @ 0830 (event of the week)
  • NEXT Week: CPI + PPI + Retail Sales + UMICH

Market Thoughts:
  • Last week:  I was at a year high going into Thursday morning - then went short on the morning’s data (bearish) when we broke through 200MA support.  I was dancing.  Then Bostic spoke + we bounced. Hard.  That ripped my head off, I had no stop in.  Then I averaged down on Thursday night, piling in more to the short.  You can look at the Thu/Fri chart to see how this turned out.  Ouch.  I’ve got a new stop policy that will prevent such a screwup in the future.
  • Economic calendar:  We’re getting this party started this week with JPow, JOLTS, NFP; then next week CPI + PPI.  Then FOMC after that.
  • Repeating from last week: My overall sentiment has not changed - I’m bearish and remain so.  It’s going to take months to play out, however, with the unemployment rate and insane consumer spending.  I still think we’re just going to run off a cliff and ‘break’ something.  That’s not today or even this month.
  • The bearish case remains squarely in deteriorating fundamentals in the face of rising rates.
  • The bullish case is technical and narrative shifting - which has been done brilliantly.
  • I have to fight hard with myself to go long in this market, because I don’t believe in it - but the bulls are in charge right now.  The market, by default, just wants to go up.  The vast, vast majority of market participants are buy and hold - not traders.  So the market will always be bent to the upside.
  • Until the market finds that cliff it’s going to run off (eventually), I’m going to bend my brain to the long side.  If I can find any reason to go long - I will. Probably.
  • I have been staying away from events - meaning I’m always out of my position ahead of the ones that matter.  THat’s proven to be effective.  Trading the follow-on wave works very well once you let the market figure out what way it wants to go (not always clear in the first 5-10 min how it wants to process the data)
  • This will be important this week because we’ve got events each day starting on Tuesday.
  • So, technicals.
  • We bounced right off the 200MA on both SPY and QQQ last week.  I don’t see us testing the 200MA again until some seriously bad data drops or FOMC.
  • The Daily on SPY + QQQ say we’ve got plenty of room to run
  • 30M says we need to pullback first (Monday)
  • The Weekly on SPY is neutral.  QQQ says we’ve got room to run.
  • DXY spent the back half of the week cooling off — 105.30 is tough for it to crack.  I expect it to grind sideways in 104 range until Friday on NFP - then it will move big.  It’s going tick for tick on NQ/QQQ though. DXY up, QQQ down.  DXY down, QQQ up.

Technicals (Latest):
  • QQQ 200 MA: 290.06
  • SPY 200 MA: 393.14

Expected move (per options chain)
  • QQQ +/- 7.84
  • SPY +/- 8.50

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: I’m currently short NQ.  I’ve got 50 point stop loss and a 100 point closing order. (OCO)
  • I’m looking for a pullback overnight/Monday from where we are now
  • I’ll be looking for spots to go long
  • QQQ 293 I’d buy with both hands
  • QQQ 313 I’d short with both hands



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Maverick - 1 year ago
Oops.  This was for March 6, 2023.

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 - QQQ

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