QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 19:39 PM - Mar 19 2023
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: March 20, 2023 - QQQ 295-315 range; FOMC + Bank Failures + Emergency Moves

Economic Calendar
  • Monday: Nothing.
  • Tuesday:  Existing Home Sales @ 1000
  • Wednesday:  FOMC @ 2pm, Q&A @ 2:30pm - obviously, even of the week/quarter ⚠️
  • Thursday:  Jobless Claims @ 0830, New Home Sales @ 1000
  • Friday: Core Durable Goods @ 0830, FOMC Bullards @ 0930, PMI @ 0945 (plenty going on near the open)
  • NEXT Week: PCE

Market Thoughts:
  • Last week:  What didn’t happen last week? I got popped on my M-W profits on Thursday due to bad risk management (no stop, which was my final warning point in my Sunday Week Ahead last week 🤦).
  • My overall sentiment is bearish - still.  The banks cracking are part of my bearish thesis, but I didn’t see the Fed coming in and rescuing it so quickly.  That was….fast.
  • Thursday said a lot.  Money always flows somewhere.  If the banks/SPY are failing, then it’s QQQ, Gold, Crypto.  QQQ had its biggest gain of the year on Thursday.
  • I had a theory that may have played out to add fuel to that fire: If you’re worried about your cash at the bank not being insured (>250k), then where can you move it to?  Stocks, gold, crypto.  Is this what we saw on Thursday?
  • Crypto is really having a moment right now - as it should - it was designed for a moment like this.
  • The entire gush into QQQ does all seem like a final hurrah by retail.  I think you can see most institutions are basically short on the market - or at least risk-off.  Retail is just piling in though.
  • Fed has come in and backstopped all depositors 100% - this is historic.  This is not bullish - but just the start of problems.  Which is why they went so extreme.
  • I’m pretty unclear on what the trade is here - so I’m going to be playing it light.  I’ve actually gone back to options because the Futures are so, so volatile at the moment - especially during market hours.  Your stops have to be too wide for comfort right now, candles are just too big.
  • It sure looks like the Fed has said “nothing is going to fail, we’ve got you, keep the party going” — some participants view all this as QE since balance sheet went up a hell of a lot in a week.
  • This doesn’t help with their battle against inflation.  I can’t imagine they are giving up that fight, so what’s their move?
  • I don’t think anybody knows, which is why Wednesday is event of the week/month/quarter. 
  • I’m going to say - for now - the move is long Mon/Tue afternoon.  Wednesday, you’ve got to be on the beach and just wait for the waves to start - then give it a few hours or even a day.  It will be a massively trend setting day.
  • I will note that my inputs — DXY, TNX, 2Y are very broke right now and not lining up like normal - so I’m confused by everything going on - but I don’t think I’m alone…..

Technicals (Latest):
  • QQQ 200 MA: 290.11
  • SPY 200 MA: 392.80

Expected move (per options chain)
  • QQQ +/- 11
  • SPY +/- 12

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: I’ve got AMD and QQQ puts (June 2023) that I’m holding just to keep my bearish heart alive.  
  • I’m long NQ as of Sunday night expecting a follow on QQQ move Mon-Tue with this ‘everything is OK, nothing fails’ + ‘anything but banks’ tailwind
  • I’ll probably hold my QQQ puts through FOMC (because they are so far out and position size is small), but I’ll otherwise be in cash and waiting several hours after the man speak to see what next move is.



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Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 - QQQ

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