Stock Market Week Ahead: April 3, 2023 - QQQ small pullback, then raging on
Economic Calendar
- Monday: OPEC meeting @ 0600, Bullard @ 0830, PMI - Manufacturing @ 0945
- Tuesday: JOLTS & Factory Orders @ 1000
- Wednesday: ADP @ 0815, PMI Services @ 0945
- Thursday: Jobless claims @ 0830; Bullard @ 1000
- Friday: US markets are closed for Good Friday. However, Non-Farm Payrolls/Wages are still set to be released @ 0830 and Consumer Credit @ 1500 - will make for an interesting Monday.
- NEXT Week: CPI
Market Thoughts:
- Last week: My plan (as I wrote on Sunday) was to exit my puts/shorts on a pullback and then look for a moment to go long. I submitted an order to close my QQQ puts on Tuesday around QQQ 305 (small loss) and my order missed by about .05. I stubbornly held waiting on it to dip just a little more to fill me, never went long and well…it raged on to 320 with me in awe. I was so right and so wrong.
- Economic calendar: The week has some fun every morning. I’d say JOLTS, OPEC, and Bullard x2 are the highlights.
- Nothing has changed in my strategy/view from last Sunday - the market only confirmed it - big time - last week.
- So, on that note, read last week’s Week Ahead: https://stonks.chat/symbol/QQQ/posts/345
- New information from last week
- PCE (favorite indicator of Fed) came in lower than expected on Friday - very bullish.
- It was end of quarter, so closing out the books - bullish as we saw
- Some of the smartest traders I know are either capitulating (going long) OR adding more shorts — this is the kettle boiling for a blow off the top
- New information tonight
- OPEC cutting production by 1M/day - bearish - this impacts inflation and was a surprise - this will hit QQQ the most
- McDonalds expected to announce layoffs - neither - but points to eventual recession once bad news is a thing again.
- Bulls remain in charge until further notice.
Technicals (Latest):
- QQQ 200 MA: 290.70 (trading way above)
- 100MA is about to cross upwards over the 200MA - bullish
- SPY 200 MA: 392.62 (trading well above)
Expected move (per options chain)
- QQQ +/- 6.4
- SPY +/- 6.2
Trading Plan (This Week):
- *Repeat from last week…trade didn’t execute 🤡
- Current position: I’ve got some QQQ puts for June 16. I will look to exit these on a technical pullback to cut my losses.
- I’ll then flip to long bias (in line with my comments above — this means I’ll be looking for reasons to go long vs short at every opportunity)
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Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 - QQQ
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