QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 21:35 PM - Apr 02 2023
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: April 3, 2023 - QQQ small pullback, then raging on

Economic Calendar
  • Monday: OPEC meeting @ 0600, Bullard @ 0830, PMI - Manufacturing @ 0945
  • Tuesday:  JOLTS & Factory Orders @ 1000
  • Wednesday:  ADP @ 0815, PMI Services @ 0945
  • Thursday:  Jobless claims @ 0830; Bullard @ 1000
  • Friday: US markets are closed for Good Friday.  However, Non-Farm Payrolls/Wages are still set to be released @ 0830 and Consumer Credit @ 1500 - will make for an interesting Monday.
  • NEXT Week: CPI

Market Thoughts:
  • Last week:  My plan (as I wrote on Sunday) was to exit my puts/shorts on a pullback and then look for a moment to go long.  I submitted an order to close my QQQ puts on Tuesday around QQQ 305 (small loss) and my order missed by about .05.  I stubbornly held waiting on it to dip just a little more to fill me, never went long and well…it raged on to 320 with me in awe.  I was so right and so wrong.
  • Economic calendar:  The week has some fun every morning.  I’d say JOLTS, OPEC, and Bullard x2 are the highlights.
  • Nothing has changed in my strategy/view from last Sunday - the market only confirmed it - big time - last week.
  • So, on that note, read last week’s Week Ahead: https://stonks.chat/symbol/QQQ/posts/345
  • New information from last week 
    • PCE (favorite indicator of Fed) came in lower than expected on Friday - very bullish.
    • It was end of quarter, so closing out the books - bullish as we saw
    • Some of the smartest traders I know are either capitulating (going long) OR adding more shorts — this is the kettle boiling for a blow off the top
  •  New information tonight 
    • OPEC cutting production by 1M/day - bearish - this impacts inflation and was a surprise - this will hit QQQ the most
    • McDonalds expected to announce layoffs - neither - but points to eventual recession once bad news is a thing again.
  •  Bulls remain in charge until further notice.

Technicals (Latest):
  • QQQ 200 MA: 290.70 (trading way above) 
    • 100MA is about to cross upwards over the 200MA - bullish
  •  SPY 200 MA: 392.62 (trading well above)

Expected move (per options chain)
  • QQQ +/- 6.4
  • SPY +/- 6.2

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • *Repeat from last week…trade didn’t execute 🤡
  • Current position: I’ve got some QQQ puts for June 16.  I will look to exit these on a technical pullback to cut my losses. 
  • I’ll then flip to long bias (in line with my comments above — this means I’ll be looking for reasons to go long vs short at every opportunity)

Screenshot 2023-04-02 at 21.34.59.png 305.03 KB


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Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 - QQQ

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