QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 22:29 PM - Apr 09 2023
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: April 10, 2023 - QQQ 325/313 range; CPI + PPI - pullback, then run continues into May 3

Economic Calendar
  • Monday: Wholesale inventories @ 1000; Fed Williams @ 1615
  • Tuesday:  Fed Harker @ 1600, Fed Kashkari @ 1930
  • Wednesday:  CPI @ 0830 ⚠️; Fed Barkin @ 0900; Fed Daily @ 1200; FOMC Minutes @ 1400
  • Thursday:  Jobless claims & PPI @ 0830
  • Friday: Retail Sales @ 0830, Fed Waller @ 0845, Industrial Production @ 0915, UMich @ 1000 ⚠️

Market Thoughts:
  • Last week:  I didn’t make any trades after Monday. 🤯
  • Economic calendar:  We’ve got FEd Speakers sprinkled all over the week, CPI & FOMC minutes on Wednesday, PPI Thursday, and Retail Sales Friday.
  • This week is focused on the Fed Trade/Inflation Trade.
  • PCE came in lower than expected - bullish.
  • Jobs came in solid still - bullish for economy, gives Fed a little more room for another hike.
  • CPI is on Wednesday - that one might be tricky for the bulls.  It’s expected to be a bit sticky and even tick up a little. ⚠️
  • Nothing has changed in my strategy/view from last two Sundays.  The bulls are still favored overall and I’m looking for go-long opportunities.
  • Technically though - we’re staring down a pullback.   It tried on Wed & Thu, but then Friday did its normal “nope”
  • We’re very close to the 100 & 200 MA crossing (100 pushing up above 200).  The last time this happened on QQQ daily chart was May 2019.
  • If history repeats, we’re going to get a pullback (now) and then a solid run to 330/340 - which would support the narrative of bull run into May 3 FOMC Meeting (I’ll be on sidelines for that - could go either way)
  • I’ll be looking for this.



Technicals (Latest):
  • QQQ 200 MA: 291.51 (trading way above) 
    • 100MA is about to cross upwards over the 200MA - bullish
  •  
  • SPY 200 MA: 393.46 (trading well above)

Expected move (per options chain)
  • QQQ +/- 7.8
  • SPY +/- 7.6

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: I’ve got MNQ short (mini NASDAQ futures).  Looking for this pullback I see on the chart.
  • Will let that play out - 313? - then look at Friday’s data to go long.
  • I’m in no rush


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Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 - QQQ

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