QQQ - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 23:38 PM - Apr 16 2023
by: Maverick

Stock Market Week Ahead: April 17, 2023 - QQQ 325/313 range; quiet economic calendar, busy earnings kickoff.

Economic Calendar
  • Monday: Empire State Index @ 0830, Fed Barkin @ 12:45
  • Tuesday:  Housing Starts @ 0830, Fed Bowman @ 1300
  • Wednesday:  Fed Williams @ 1900
  • Thursday:  Jobless claims + Philly Index @ 0830, Fed speaks throughout the day (I count 4 of them)
  • Friday: PMI (both) @ 0945

  • Here we go again.
  • Smaller banks start off the week
  • NFLX Tuesday AH
  • TSLA Wednesday AH
  • Industrials Thursday and Friday

Market Thoughts:
  • Last week:  I made two trades last week - closing out the MNQ short I had (for 9 days!) for a profit; re-opening it a bit higher - currently holding that.
  • Economic calendar:  There’s some quiet killers on the calendar for this week.  Empire State, PMI, and all those speakers on Thursday.
  • On Wednesday, CPI showed nice headline decline, but stickiness in core - so we got the rip and fade.  That was the low for the week.  Note that a lot of headline was tied to the dip in oil that has now roared back.
  • Nothing has changed in my strategy/view from last three Sundays.  The bulls are still in charge.
  • Exact repeat of last week: Technically though - we’re staring down a pullback.   It tried on Wed & Thu, but then Friday did its normal “nope”
  • Heading into FOMC next month, the bulls can’t scream banking crisis, then report record earnings on Friday.  It’s one or the other.
  • I wouldn’t be surprised to see another bank or two sacrificed to JPow ahead of May 3, worked last time.  Short KRE?
  • Earnings season should be a wide array of big beats and screams of pain
  • Fed is already putting out there they are coming in with higher rates than even were talked about last time.  They didn’t get their 50bps and they know they need to keep going while things are hot.  They’e backstopped the banks/financial sector - so what’s the problem?
  • I’m seeing no pain yet - jobs are insanely strong, I look around while out. not seeing it.  Yes, groceries are expensive as hell, but that’s about it.
  • I remain bearish, just clearly many months early.
  • If you look at the PPO, MACD, RSI - it’s all just looking for a high-volume reason to jump off a cliff.  It just hasn’t had one yet - amazingly - that the market cares about.
  • Fun fact: QQQ is almost exact price it was 1 year ago today.  We’ve gone nowhere despite a wild ride.

Technicals (Latest):
  • QQQ 200 MA: 292.25 (trading way above) 
    • 100MA is about to cross upwards over the 200MA - bullish
  • SPY 200 MA: 394.07 (trading well above)

Expected move (per options chain)
  • QQQ +/- 6
  • SPY +/- 6

Trading Plan (This Week):
  • Current position: I’ve got MNQ short (mini NASDAQ futures).  Looking at the PPO and negative MACD for some action to the downside.
  • If we get a dip to 313, I’m learning my lesson for the third time, and closing and going long for now - unless it’s on major fundamental news.
  • With VIX @ 17 (incredible), I’m going to stack some puts for September or later, starting Monday.

Screenshot 2023-04-16 at 23.37.33.png 778.55 KB



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Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 - QQQ

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