SPY - SPDR S&P 500 20:49 PM - Oct 16 2022
by: samosa

Monday, October 17th Market Preview

What Am I Looking Out For This Week?  - 

  • This is a very light week for economic data, so no data will come in to sent the trend. So this will make this week very tricky as the major items are earnings for companies. 
  • It is earnings season! This pretty much puts swing trades on ice for the next few weeks until the dust settles. I expect a mix bag of results on every report and the market reactions will be very unpredictable. 
  • All eyes continue to be on the DXY and TNX. If the DXY cools, stocks will go up. I would argue that the DXY is the hardest instrument to follow and predict. So since the market is inversing the DXY, the difficulty level for swing traders just got raised to the hardest level. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • No positions. After last week's roller coaster journey on Thursday and Friday, I needed a reset. I finished last week green by a small margin, but I just could not get a good feel of where the market was heading. So like my momma has told me, when in doubt, do without. 
  • Scalps - I am getting back into scalp trading as well when the setups merit it. This means waiting until 10:30am and let my intraday Fibs have some data to work with. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?


Earnings this Week:

earnings-october-16.jpeg 252.94 KB
  • Highlights - BOA, GS, NFLX, PG, T, TSLA, SNAP, AAL, AXP 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily are neutral. When these conditions are present I normally revert back to the data releases. Unfortunately, there is not any new data coming this week outside of earnings.   
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. I would not be surprise for this level to get recaptured and hold this week. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 359. The bulls need to keep this level.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

  • We don't much on the calendar on Monday so we could see a choppy day. The donwtrend from Friday could continue into Monday which could just see a slow bled day. Consolidation though seems to be what we will see. 
  • I am looking for a 350 to 370 range for the next few weeks.
  • Everyone is looking for a capitulation type move in the market. For it to happen this week, it will need to come from some international surprise news to trigger it. 
  • I will be waiting until 10:30am and see if I can set up some intraday Fibs and try and identify any scalps. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 350 > 353 > 355 > 358 > 360 > 362 > 367 > 370
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samosa - 1 year ago
Correction: BAC not BOA (thanks Noodles for spotting that)

SPDR S&P 500 - SPY

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