SPY - SPDR S&P 500 22:55 PM - Oct 18 2022
by: samosa

Wednesday, October 19th Market Preview

What Happened on Tuesday? - 

  • The market started gapping up to 375 at the open. It struggled to hold this level and began to slowly bleed out the rest of the morning. 
  • Around 12pm EST the market started to slowly recover and it looked destined to set new highs for the session and then AAPL news hit. 
  • An AAPL article came out that they are pulling back some of the production of the iPhone 14 Plus. This seemed to confirm the previous report of this story that was released back in September. The market started selling off in a hurry to erase most of the gains on the day to 368.  
  • In the last hour, the market recovered and ended up closing over 371. 
  • NFLX reported stellar earnings in afterhours and the market boomed on it. This brings some hopium to the rest of the big earnings releases coming up in the next few weeks. It was a surprise report and could lead to a sustained bear market rally for the rest of the week. 

What Am I Looking Out For This Week?  - 

  • This is a very light week for economic data, so no data will come in to sent the trend. So this will make this week very tricky as the major items are earnings for companies. 
  • It is earnings season! This pretty much puts swing trades on ice for the next few weeks until the dust settles. I expect a mix bag of results on every report and the market reactions will be very unpredictable. 
  • All eyes continue to be on the DXY and TNX. If the DXY cools, stocks will go up. I would argue that the DXY is the hardest instrument to follow and predict. So since the market is inversing the DXY, the difficulty level for swing traders just got raised to the hardest level. 

Current Positions and Plays:

  • I am holding a SPX call that I grabbed right when NFLX reported their earnings. I will look to seel this one at the open tomorrow.  
  • Scalps - I am getting back into scalp trading as well when the setups merit it. This means waiting until 10:30am and let my intraday Fibs have some data to work with. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)?


Earnings this Week:

earnings-october-16.jpeg 252.94 KB

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are almost in overbought territory. The 4 hour and Daily are neutral.  
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 362 is the .000 line. Bulls keep recovering this line. This back to being major support as we are well above it again. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382. 349 is the .500. That .500 level is the real deal and the current YTD low. The 380 looks to be tested this week imo. 
  • SPY - The 200 Weekly SMA is 359. The bulls need to keep this level.

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for WEDNESDAY for SPY:

  • We have a lot of housing data tomorrow morning so we will get some good data on how that segment of the economy is holding up. It is anticipated to be weak. 
  • I will be looking to see if there is any continuation from NFLX earnings that will keep the market moving up. If the market keeps riding the hopium, it will be a nice green trend day. 
  • TSLA is reporting earnings AH and it has been beaten and abused heading into this report. So to me the surprise is to the upside, which could give this bear market rally some more fuel to keep going.  
  • I have my SPX call and I will most likely sell it at the open, hopefully for a nice profit. Then I will look to scalp some plays after 10:30am. 
  • I will be waiting until 10:30am and see if I can set up some intraday Fibs and try and identify any scalps. 
  • NOTE: I am turning into a swing trader for various reasons, so please keep that in mind moving forward. My options plays will be always a few weeks out because of this. 
  • This is not financial advice

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 360 > 362 > 367 > 370 > 373 > 375 (psych level) > 378 > 380 (major level)
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