SPY - SPDR S&P 500 22:15 PM - Feb 05 2023
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - February 6th, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

SPY had a weekly range of 400 to 418, closing near 412. It was a crazy week with major events happening all over the place, including FOMC and AAPL earnings. Jerome Powell came in very tame in his demeanor and the bulls took that as an indicator that the Fed pain is starting to subside. During his speech on Wednesday, the market blasted higher and set the stage for the soft landing to carry the momentum upward for a few more weeks. 

AAPL, AMZN, and GOOG all released earnings on Thursday in afterhours. The earnings were not great, and the market seemed to handle the reports pretty well in afterhours. Friday in premarket brought a very hot jobs report that sent the market down to test under 411, but the dip was quickly bought up on Friday. 

The internet is filled with reviews of earnings and FOMC from last week, but I want to concentrate on the jobs report for a moment. One bullish note for the jobs data was that wage rates stayed the same and unemployment ticked lower. The wage data  being flat helps ease the inflation fears for the upcoming CPI report on 02/14. However, the jobs number came in scorching hot (comically hot honestly) at +500k. That helps the DXY gain some momentum which is a bearish sign for tech and commodities. So the jobs report may fuel the next pullback if the DXY can keep the upward momentum it grabbed on Friday. 

My Prediction - 

The market is pretty frothy up here and is ripe for a technical pullback. I am going to be looking at the DXY and seeing if it can hold 103 on Monday. I think there is a chance that we get a vey quick pullback on Monday and part of Tuesday where SPY retests 407. That would clear up some of the technicals and allow for any dip buyers to feel more comfortable to enter. 

I believe the catalyst for the dip buying will be the JPow event on Tuesday turning into a nonevent and the dip buyers show up in full force again. This time they will run the market up to 420 before the CPI report. If we get there before next week, then we will consolidate and slowly grind up. 

As a bear, I hate typing this, but it is what it is. There is no major economic events this week that can cause much fear outside of JPow completely flipping his dovish stance on Tuesday.  He is not going to do that in my opinion with FOMC only being 6 days ago. That would kill all credibility he has left. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here. We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week:  stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Monday - Nothing major
  • Tuesday - US Balance of Trade at 8:30am
  • Tuesday - JPow speech at 12:40pm
  • Tuesday - CMG earnings in afterhours
  • Wednesday - A lot of Fed Speakers throughout the day
  • Wednesday - UBER earnings in premarket and DIS Earnings in Afterhours
  • Thursday - No major economic data (weekly jobless claims but not major)
  • Friday - UK GDP at 2:00am (DXY implications/ global recession fears)
  • Friday - UoM Consumer at 10am

Current Positions and Plays -

  • All cash for now. 
  • I am sticking with daily scalps for the time being. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour are neutral. 4 hour and Daily charts are close to overbought. 
  • SPY has broken above its 200 MA average and the bear market trendline on the Daily chart.
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 407 is the .382 line. Next line higher is 421 which is the .500 line.
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - We tested and rejected 418 which was the .236. Next line below is 380. 

Percentages from the Highs

  • SPY is approximately -15% (479 HIGH)
  • QQQ is approximately -25% (408 HIGH)
  • DJX is approximately -8% (369 HIGH)
  • IWM is approximately -20% (244 HIGH)

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 407 (major), 410, 413, 415, 418 (major)
  • NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES futures. 
  • This is not financial advice


Login to join the discussion!
No comments have been made for SPDR S&P 500. Be the first!

SPDR S&P 500 - SPY

Total Followers: 3
Link Copied to Clipboard!