SPY - SPDR S&P 500 21:35 PM - Feb 12 2023
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - February 13th, 2023

Last Week Recap - 

SPY had a weekly range of 405 to 416, closing near 408. Another wild week that saw both bulls and bears eat pies in the face. JPow's speech on Tuesday sparked a nice pop and then it immediately got faded back down. Only to then recover again at the close on Tuesday. But from Wednesday until the close of the week, we saw continued selling. I got caught in holding longs thinking we would see some CPI optimism going into next week. That proved to be a big mistake as I completely missed two things, the bond market believing more rate hikes were coming, and the projections for the upcoming CPI came in much hotter than last months. 

We have a lot of important data releasing this week. CPI will get the most attention, but I am more focused on the retail sales data on Wednesday. The CPI reading is expected to be a little hotter than last months, and plays into the sticky inflation narrative. Retail sales, however could hurt the soft landing narrative if they come in cool. This could be the shift of the narrative to recession fears. 

My Prediction - 

All eyes will be on the CPI report early in the week, but I do believe that could be a minor impact on the next trend. I am more interested in the retail sales data on Wednesday to show if the consumer is still showing signs of weakness. I will be squarely focused on the TNX and DXY this week. If those two can maintain their recent strength, there should be a sell off in tech. The 200 Daily SMA for QQQ is 291 and I expect us to test that before a possible bounce. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here. We have a lot of Fed Speakers this week:  stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Monday - Nothing major
  • Tuesday - US CPI at 8:30am
  • Wednesday - UK CPI at 2:00am
  • Wednesday - US Retail Sales at 8:30am
  • Wednesday - EU's LaGarde speech at 9:00am (DXY implications)
  • Wednesday - Various Industrial and Business Inventory Reports at 9:15am and 10am
  • Thursday - US PPI at 8:30am
  • Friday - Nothing major

Current Positions and Plays -

  • I am holding 2 NQ shorts. Looking at exiting these on Monday or Tuesday before CPI. I will then start scalping until the retail data comes out on Wednesday. 

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min and 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily charts are near or at neutral. 
  • SPY has broken above its 200 MA average and the bear market trendline on the Daily chart.
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 407 is the .382 line. Next line higher is 421 which is the .500 line.
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - We tested and rejected 418 which was the .236. Next line below is 380. 

Percentages from the Highs

  • SPY is approximately -15% (479 HIGH)
  • QQQ is approximately -25% (408 HIGH)
  • DJX is approximately -8% (369 HIGH)
  • IWM is approximately -20% (244 HIGH)

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY - levels 396, 400, 405, 407 (major), 410, 413, 415, 418 (major)
  • NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES and NQ futures. 
  • This is not financial advice


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SPDR S&P 500 - SPY

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