Market Update: April 12, 2022 - SPY to 433 after relief rally; AFRM, CTRA, LAC on watch

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What Happened Today (Tuesday)
  • SPY was almost perfectly opposite of what I called last night - drop at the open, and run at the close.  Instead we got pop at the open (premarket) and drop most of the day.  However, I’ll give myself a little credit for recognizing I had it backwards once CPI data was released - and that’s how I traded it.  Puts from the open, on. 🔥
  • Trade: SPY/QQQ - puts only, right until the last few minutes.  I didn’t stay in my couple trades very long, should have.  I really do need to learn to stay in longer with the golden tickets that I know are right. $SPY  $QQQ  for trades.
  • ⚠️QQQ gave up 343 support today, SPY gave up 438, but clawed it back right at the end.  Both important levels for the bulls & bears.
  • Trade: $LAC  - exited this right at the open on the $1 pop.  I had averaged down quite a bit and that ended up working out.  Exited at 4 (from 3.88), which ended up being fortunate timing, because it closed at 2.80.  I’ll be back in this one when the chart looks better.
  • Trade: $CTRA  25c 5/20 @ 4.25 - These were real good to me on Friday.  I think we're got a rotation into commodities in progress, so I jumped back in.  It was a bit too early by the looks of it.  It pulled back all day long.  We'll see how this one shakes out.  There's plenty of time on the expiry, but I have no interest in using it. 😅


Looking Ahead (Wednesday)
  • We’ve got PPI (Producer Price Index) at 0830 EST.  This will have some impact, but it’s not CPI.
  • I’ve got my CTRA calls, but not expecting them to move too much on Wednesday.  If they’ll just hold the line, I’m happy hold them over the weekend.  Unlikely to happen, but I can try.
  • SPY/QQQ - I switched over and did one call just before the close for 12% on SPY.  It was a small position, but the turned looked clear.  This should continue into Wednesday.
  • JPM does have its ER in premarket.  It could move DIA/XLF if it surprises.  I’ll have AFRM ready to go, if so.
  • SPY/QQQ - I say relief rally in the morning… +4-5 points?  It may hold it all day and just chop, but if it doesn’t come pullback by EOD, then I am expecting Thursday or Monday at the latest to pullback.  It looks clear to drop to 433 on SPY and 333 on QQQ.
  • I expect we’ll see those numbers within 2-3 trading days.  On shortened weeks and lighter volumes as you get closer to holidays, it’s always a bit more volatile.
  • Watchlist: AFRM (if JPM surprises), CTRA (my commodities play), AMD (quick bounce only), LAC (looking for 28 bottom)
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Coterra Energy - CTRA

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