Maverick's Moves

SPY traded 363 - 370
I was out in the opening 2 seconds. It was clear the market was going to bounce - and it did, all the way to 370 before getting faded yet again.
I was sure hoping for 373 for puts re-entry, but it never happened. So, we wait….
I wasn’t expecting it to see 363 today - that was quite a surprise - and confirmed just how weak it is. In normal conditions, we’d have bounced hard off those oversold technicals.
We’re not in normal conditions though.
Several Fed guys talked today. Yawn.

SPY levels: 355, 363, 373, 380, 390
Chart - Weekly: Bearish - just carrying on with the move down. It’s going to 350 at some point, at least.
Chart - Daily: Neutral - oversold, bounce coming.
Chart - 4h: Bullish - oversold and turned up already - it’s trying to bounce now.

If you need any confirmation that the DXY is driving the market, pull up today’s DXY chart and look at it next to SPY. It’s almost perfect inversion.
The DXY is in crazy land, which can be seen in international headlines - other currencies are getting totally crushed by it. Someone will intervene at some point to avoid total wreckage.
We’ve got Fed Presidents all over the calendar for Tuesday - expect some headlines. Again, it’s going to be 50/50 split on Dot Plot pushing their views, so it’ll be both sides.
Unless one of these countries does something silly, I think we’re going to see DXY chill out a bit on Tuesday and a rally to at least 373 will be in the cards.
If I play it, I’ll take my own advice from Sunday - don’t go big and be quick to take profit. I will not hold calls overnight for foreseeable future, just intraday.
We’ve got Consumer Confidence @ 10am which I kind of like. By that time, we’ll have heard from most of the people for the day. Kashkari at 1pm.

Economic Calendar: https://stonks.chat/feed/catalysts

I’ve got no position right now. I’ll start building back up my core puts position for October 31 if we get to 373+
I may play an early October SPX call just to trade the technical bounce, if I see confirmation of it - but it’ll be quick.
The real move is building up some puts to hold.
4hr chart below - for the quick SPXc trade. You know what the Weekly Chart looks like by now.

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Maverick 21:38 PM - Sep 25 2022

Stock Market Week Ahead: September 26, 2022 - SPY 355/373 range this week; oversold technicals; fade the rips.

There are so many US Fed officials speaking this week, I won’t mention each one, just know they’re all week at all times. Click above to see them all.
Monday: ECB - Lagarde @ 9am EST. BOE Tenreyro @ 12pm EST
Tuesday: ECB - Lagarde again @ 7:30am EST, Durable Goods @ 0830; New Home Sales @ 10am
Wednesday: More Home Sales data @ 10am EST
Thursday: Jobless claims @ 830am; GDP as well.
Friday: PCE @ 8:30am; Mich Consumer Sentiment @ 10am - I think day this is most important of week?

Thoughts - General:

What a wild ride the last two weeks have been. It was fun and profitable, but the volatility and big moves are going to taper down.
I don’t see any 10+ moves coming up for a while, so manage expectations and embrace the chop.
The move is longer-term (more than a couple weeks, let’s be clear) swings, NOT intraday trading.
This week is full of US Fed officials talking. What are they going to say that JPow didn’t already say?
They are split on the Dot Plot, so maybe you’ll see them pitching their view on that. I don’t see any of them being market movers, for the most part, unless one of them comes in from the top rope with some crazy talk.
The bulls will be looking for any hope at all, but I think it will get faded quick. There’s no reason to buy long-term right now. However, technicals are either oversold are getting oversold - so there will be consolidation or a bounce in very short-term.
Overall, I think we’re looking at a slow bleed for next couple months, with pops of hope along the way. Until AAPL falls - then we’re going down hard to fresh new lows.
Homes data should confirm what JPow said - cooling in progress. Thursday may say a pop if the Jobless claims indicate rising unemployment - but unlikely this week.
DXY is going to dance a bit this week. It’s already moving big on Sunday night and with ECB dragging their ass, it’ll continue to trend up. Once the other central banks start catching up, DXY will settle down.
We’re walking into earnings season. If AAPL shows any cracks…..
Which, again, I think puts us into a slow bleed with con

Thoughts - Technical:

SPY levels: 355, 363, 373, 380, 390
Chart - Weekly: Bearish - just carrying with the move down. It’s going to 350 at some point, at least.
Chart - Daily: Neutral - oversold just slightly, bounce coming.
Chart - 4h: Bullish - oversold and turned up already. Relief rally coming, but no thank you.

Trading Plan (Monday):

I’ve got 1 SPX 3650p 10/31 that I held over weekend. May sell it, may keep it. I don’t think I’ll be adding to it.
I don’t think there’s much meat on this bone to go down in the next few days - outside of additional bad news internationally - which is certainly possible.
There’s more opportunity to the upside off these technicals - but not long-term. If you play the upside, take it quickly and don’t go big.
I’ll be looking to fade any rips to any of the levels I noted above, though I’m in no hurry.

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Maverick 22:27 PM - Sep 22 2022

Stock Market Day Ahead - September 23, 2022 - SPY - 373/380; Friday for the bulls?

SPY traded 373.44 - 378.30
Forget normal session, the wild ride was in futures/premarket. Down to 374 then up to 390 and back to 375 shortly after the open. I was rich and poor so many times before it actually opened again.
I’m not surprised they could get a bounce out of it during main session. There’s just…nothing… to be positive about fundamentally. It’s just the start of the pain to come on earnings and it’s not yet Peak JPow Fear.
The market rode 375 VWAP pretty much all day. Not much else happened.

SPY levels: 373, 380, 390 (I’ll update sub-373 over weekend)
Chart - Weekly: Bearish - curling down fully in motion now - we’ve got a long ways to go down from here.
Chart - Daily: Bearish - but I expect 373 to put up a fight - again. It will break eventually though.
Chart - 4h: Bearish - it’s nearing oversold, but 4h loves to push through on bottom end of RSI.

There’s some data coming out, but it won’t shift market.
JPow speaks at 2pm but it’s a non-event.
I am expecting Friday to be a low volume green day.
I’ll be looking for a spot to add 1-2 SPXp for October 31 again. I think more people will figure out exactly what JPow hit them with by then.
Plus, Putin still a wild card.

I leave you with the Weekly Chart again. It’s all you need.

I’ve got no position right now. I’ll start building back up my core puts position for October 31.
Would be great to do that above 380 - but unlikely to happen. So I’ll start at 375 with the first one.

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Maverick 21:57 PM - Sep 21 2022

Stock Market Day Ahead - September 22, 2022 - SPY - 370/377; that happened. 🐻 📉

SPY traded 389 to 377
I didn’t let the strangle play out - I tried to ‘optimize’ it after the 2pm announcement and that messed it all up. Had a small loss. That didn’t stop me from making what is so far the right move….
I had that one SPXp that I wanted to add to - I added two more when we were over 386. Looking very good here in afterhours - if we open anywhere near here, I’m out and not messing with 373.
It came in at 75bps - no surprise to anybody. The ‘bad news’ that Samosa gets kudos for being prepared for was the projected Fed Funds Rate - they moved that up.
JPow was his normal magical self. While he was speaking - for the most part- we were pushing new highs of the day. When he walked off the stage, the gates of hell started opening up.
He was saying bearish things, but his tone was very pleasant and made you enjoy your medicine. He almost lured me into calls!
He really just confirmed what he said at JHole - and held that line - which we know how that went. He repeated multiple times he is not stopping or dropping rate until inflation is tame.

SPY levels: [UNSURE BELOW 373], 373, 380, 390
Chart - Weekly: Bearish - curling down fully in motion now - got it right that time.
Chart - Daily: Bearish - but I expect 373 to put up a fight - and will be oversold on chart. If it breaks that….
Chart - 4h: Bearish - it’s nearing oversold, but 4h loves to push through on bottom end of RSI.

There’s jobless claims at 0830 but I suspect they won’t matter if we’re down 3-4 points in premarket/overnight.
I don't think Putin got the world reaction he wanted, so he's still out there as a wild card.
I remain bearish for the time being — check the Weekly Chart again which is what I’m hanging my cowboy hat on.

If we’re near/below 373, I’ll be looking to exit and sit on sidelines and take a breather. We’d be oversold at that point - though I can’t see a reason for a bounce, only a dead cat one. I'd just re-enter the puts on that.
I don’t see any entry trades for Thursday.

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Maverick 22:28 PM - Sep 20 2022

Stock Market Day Ahead - September 21, 2022 - SPY - 373/393; big range; big day; JPow in the house. 🥳

SPY traded 381 to 386
I held that SPYc overnight and it got me. It went against my plan and I paid for it. Well deserved.
I also missed that Lagarde would be speaking - needed to adjust my Economic Calendar settings to allow EUR & UK. That and Putin both caused drops today. Top rope….
At the end of the day around 385, I started building back my long-term puts position again. I think it’s fine to do so regardless of what JPow says. Any rally will be short-lived when reality hits. I picked up just 1 SPXp for Oct 31. 🎃
Ford warned about its supply chain. There will be more warnings ahead.

SPY levels: 373, 380, 390, 396, 400, 405, 410
Chart - Weekly: Bearish - It’s curling down now, so it should continue generally down on a weekly interval for a while.
Chart - Daily: Neutral - needs a fundamental kick for any big move either way.
Chart - 4h: Bullish - but it’s useless for tomorrow. Fundamental event.

FOMC is Wednesday at 2pm EST. See my Week Ahead for my thoughts on that. https://stonks.chat/group/7/posts/671
I am equally torn between this being a positive event and a negative event. Everybody I’m reading feels the same way.
I’m going to keep it simple and just do a small options strangle. I can pontificate all day on what it’s going to do, but why bother. I know it’s going to move big Wed and probably Thursday, so I’m going to do a strangle with 1DTE (vs 0DTE) and let it rip.
Check the Weekly Chart below for why i’m building long-term position.

SPY | SPX Trading Plans (Wednesday)

I’ll add 1 more SPX to my long-term puts position at the open (assuming 384) and then again at 380, 390, 400.
By 1pm, I’ll set up an options strangle $2 OTM on both sides w/Thursday dates.

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Maverick 23:37 PM - Sep 19 2022

Stock Market Day Ahead - September 20, 2022 - SPY - 386/393 range; chop & small upward trend to Wednesday.

SPY traded 382 - 388.50
I had a SPXp over the weekend. I couldn’t explain the drop from 387 on Friday to 382 on Monday, so I locked in the profit. I got cheeky and put in a trailing stop. That worked against me because the open spiked so fast, it skipped right over my 2-point trailing stop. It was a $400 order type mistake. I should have just hit it with a market order.
I sat on my hands all day, then started chewing my arm off to buy a call at 386/387, kept resisting until the close and almost high of day for a SPXc.
I was resisting because it wasn’t in my outlook for the day - quite the opposite, actually - so I was trying to avoid. Oh well.
Crypto got whipped on Sunday night at 10pm EST - don’t know why.
I saw some minor news across the globe, but nothing that explained crypto + 5 point SPY drop.

SPY levels: 373, 380, 390, 396, 400, 405, 410
Chart - Weekly: Bearish - It’s curling down now, so it should continue generally down on a weekly interval for a while.
Chart - Daily: Neutral - needs a fundamental kick for any big move either way.
Chart - 4h: Bullish - this one turned a little bullish on Friday - continued on Monday - and looks good for Tuesday. I wouldn’t use this chart heading into Wednesday, though. Depend on the Weekly.

Economic Calendar: https://stonks.chat/feed/catalysts

Reminder: FOMC is Wednesday at 2pm EST. See my Week Ahead for my thoughts on that. https://stonks.chat/group/7/posts/671
I continue to expect Wednesday to be a positive event. I don’t think it will last long - until Thursday afternoon - but I do expect it to be green.
I am guessing that’s what we’re seeing a little bit of right now. It came off 382 and got right back above where it was on Friday night (387) and is now sitting at 389 in futures. That’s a solid 7 point move off the bottom today.
Since today went against what I expected (pop at open and slow bleed all day, all Tuesday, and flat Wednesday), I am wondering if we’re getting bullish optimism like CPI leading few days. I can see it and I think it’s probably right.
On the flip side, I can see people running scared ahead of JPow - for good reason.
I’ll probably exit these calls at the open if they’re profitable and then try to sit back and plot my Wednesday move. I’m expecting it to jump over 390 at the open, then go back and pay its respect, then we’ll see where it goes from there. If it respects 390, it will be chop all day.

SPY | SPX Trading Plans (Tuesday)

If we’re over 390 at the open, I’ll exit this one SPXc that I have, purchased at the close around 388.50.
I don’t see a trade if that happens, I think we’ll just gyrate around 390 all day, so there’s nothing to do.
I will probably bench myself after that and just wait until an A+ setup for Wednesday shows up.

Maverick 21:36 PM - Sep 18 2022

Stock Market Week Ahead: September 19, 2022 - SPY 380/400 range this week; FOMC rate hike Wednesday — 75 or 100bps?

Monday: Nothing.
Tuesday: Nothing.
Wednesday: FOMC rate hike @ 2pm; followed by JPow at 2:30pm ⚠️ - Event of the week
Thursday: Jobless claims @ 830am, but won’t matter following Wednesday
Friday: S&P PMI data all day from various countries with US @ 9:45am; JPow speaks at 2pm, but it looks like a non-event.

Thoughts - General:

We’ve arrived. FOMC is on Wednesday at 2pm. Cue the bongos.
I think this is Peak JPow Fear. He’s only going to go down from whatever he does on Wednesday.
There’s a decent chance of a 100bps hike. People act like it’s never happened before. It’s happened both on the increase and decrease between modern and Volker (400bps in a month..): https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm & https://www.thebalancemoney.com/fed-funds-rate-history-highs-lows-3306135#toc-fed-chair-paul-volcker-august-1979-august-1987
You can’t use the excuse of ‘those were exceptional times’ - because that’s exactly what we have here. It’s going to get real exceptional if they don’t tame the inflation monster. America must continue to lead the charge.
Now, based on what I know about current FOMC members and JPow, do I think they’ll hit it with 100bps? No.
I think we’re looking at 75bps. It’s what the market expects and what I think JPow has projected out. That makes sense based on current data.
This stuff is not immediate. We’re seeing results in certain places. Layoffs are starting, companies are warning, real estate boom is over, the pain has begun.
I think we’re more likely to see 0.75 on Wednesday, then MAYBE another 0.75 if we haven’t seen results by next one (November 2) - but you’ve got another CPI + jobs data before then.
If we come in at 75bps, we’re likely to see a positive market reaction, especially after his speech. It’ll show that Fed will do what’s necessary, he’ll mention some positive data has started trickling in (for his mandate at least), and show he’s not going any higher than 75bps going forward - only stepping it down. He’ll spin some magic like there’s going to be no recession.
If we come in at 100bps, then we’re going to crater further and he’s going to be really tough in his speech. It will confirm a recession for everybody (which is coming anyways). I think this is unlikely scenario, but possible.
I see another JPow speech on our calendar for 2pm on Friday - I don’t think it’s market moving - https://www.federalreserve.gov/conferences/fed-listens-transitioning-to-the-post-pandemic-economy.htm
I wish there was more going on this week, but FOMC is it.
Of note, that FedEx warning we had was not their official earnings. That was a ‘preliminary warning’ - which we’re going to see more of. I think it’s a way to communicate to JPow to ‘chill out’, frankly. They did this last week and their earnings date is Thursday - after FOMC.
Week of September 26: Not much on the calendar, except oil data and PCE on Friday.

Thoughts - Technical:

SPY levels: 373, 380, 390, 396, 400, 405, 410
Chart - Weekly: Bearish - this turned back the other way on CPI. It’s curling down now, so it should continue generally down on a weekly interval for a while.
Chart - Daily: Bearish - still plenty of room to go down. 380 or lower.
Chart - 4h: Bullish - this one turned a little bullish on Friday - I don’t trust it though. I think it turns back down before Wednesday.

Trading Plan (Monday):

I held one SPX 10/5 3860p over weekend for the hell of it. I like it though. I’m looking for a quick pop to 390 on Monday - then slow fade end of day, Tuesday, Wednesday morning.
I’ll add a couple more SPXp at 390/396 OR 380 (confirmation) and then exit prior to JPow on Wednesday - I may let it ride up until that moment for max VIX. I’m staying out of the man’s way with any one-sided trades, though. Lessons learned there…
I might do a strangle on Wednesday around lunch, but it would be small by comparison to the CPI one. I don’t feel strongly about a violent move in either direction right now. As noted above, I think the bulls have a good chance here to get a ‘whew, only 75bps’ rally post-JPow. If we trend down until this event, the technicals will be prime for it, too.
BOE and Swiss Bank are releasing their rate hikes on Thursday - which should push the DXY down and the SPY up - it’s set up real nice for a run…

Two charts...

Don't lose sight of the long-term monthly:

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Weekly

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Maverick 22:42 PM - Sep 15 2022

Stock Market Day Ahead - September 16, 2022 - SPY - 383/390 range; FDX calling for ‘worldwide recession’; downtrend continues.

SPY traded 389 to 396
Sorry about yesterday. I was just tired and there was no change in my plans - buy SPX puts at 395+ SPY. I did that yesterday/today.
Yesterday: Was at a tidy profit, then re-entered about 30 min before the close and vaporized all of it. Closed flat. Greedy pig.
Thursday: Exited my short-term (September) puts and rolled them into long-term (November).
I was expecting a 390 break by JPow Day - but not today. I expected 392 to hold. It’s just confirmation of how truly weak it is right now, which pretty much everybody noticed yesterday when we only recovered 1.50 after being down 18.
I’m a little puzzled at the action on the VIX, just seems off. DXY and TNX holding the line.
We had several bits of news, none of it good for the market. Still strong jobs and consumer.

SPY levels: 373, 380, 385, 390, 396
Chart - Weekly: Bearish - as I said previously, despite the cross to bullish last week, these are going to cross again and turn bearish - delayed.
Chart - Daily: Bearish - Fundamental-driven reversal continues, plenty of room to go down.
Chart - 4h: Bearish - same - looking like 360’s aren’t far off.

That consumer and jobs data is a slightly lagging indicator - I think we’re getting very close to the apex of max Fed heat + the pain starting from those hikes. There will be an upcoming moment when the tide shifts and the Fed can ease up - but it’s still not here yet and we’ll need to see more confirmation of it all breaking down. Probably at some point after this upcoming earnings season.
FedEx (FDX) reported earnings in after hours and tanked about 17%. It was a big whiff and set a very negative tone for the future. CEO is expecting a ‘worldwide recession’ - strong words (but reality)
We’re already down 3-4 points in futures to around 386.50
Next support levels are 385-ish and then 380. If that gives….
I’m going to post that monthly chart again that is marching right on to where I expect us to go by April 2023 (the trend line)
NOTE: Friday is Options Expiration day (OpEx) for the quarter. There will be big volume candles, especially at the close of the day. I think the flow is mostly negative/selling stock, but we’ll see. Careful..

I’m only adding to my puts core position on pops to resistance levels. The technicals don’t support a bounce and fundamentals certainly don’t.
I’ll sell my core puts position before JPow - just to stay out of his way - and because I think it’s possible for it to be a positive event (“Whew, only 75bps!”) - then get back in and ride it into next CPI.

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Maverick 01:36 AM - Sep 14 2022

Stock Market Day Ahead - September 14, 2022 - SPY - 390/395 range; fade the bounce; CPI thoughts.

SPY traded 403 down to 392. It ended down 18 points against yesterday's close.
Today was epic - and a trend reversal. CPI came in warm/hot - not cool/cool or cool/mixed like pretty much everybody was thinking.
Prior to the data being released, I was biased to the bullish side for a positive CPI report (you can see that in my report last night), but I knew better than to position myself that way. I learned that very expensive lesson during JPow’s last talk from JHole. The only thing I knew for sure was the market was going to move - I was just looking for 5+ points in either direction.
Fortunately - this time - I didn’t tinker with it and kept it even puts/calls. That worked out well today and cemented how to use that setup going forward.
My take on today: The price action was so violent, not because the report was so bad, but because expectations were so high - and wrong. Up until 8:30am, we were sitting on a 23 point (!!!) run into this report that fueled by hopium (not data).
On a positive report, I am not convinced my strangle would have worked out - it could have just been flat due to so much being priced in. So, it really was best scenario for my particular setup.
Looking at the actual data, you can see that what the Fed is doing is working (maybe a bit slowly). We’re doing better than other countries, for sure - which is a reason the DXY is so damn strong. This doesn't change my bearish stance for reasons I'll explain in a later special post.
It was a good day to be a bear, but there’s a lot to think about in the upcoming days/weeks with this new data and sentiment shift.

SPY levels: 380, 390, 396, 400, 405
Chart - Weekly: Bearish - while the ripster clouds are still bullish, I think they’ll turn with today’s data after a few more days (lagging). This would point towards us visiting 360 again.
Chart - Daily: Bearish - Fundamental data event always trumps technicals. Reversal and plenty of room to go down.
Chart - 4h: Bearish - same as Daily.

Samosa spotted it before I did, but this data wipes out the entire reason for the run from 390. On that basis, we should see 390 (or lower) again prior to FOMC next week. I think he’s right.
I’ll be looking for a dead cat bounce on Wed/Thu to re-enter some 2-3 week out puts. I’ll exit these prior to JPow. Then I’ll play the waves after he speaks. I don’t currently expect this FOMC to be as big of a market mover as usual. We know what he’s going to do. Only thing they’ll be looking for is any signal when the hikes will end - unlikely now to be this year.
There is currently no reason to hold calls. Trade the levels, fine, but I wouldn’t hold them. I’ll be looking for fade the rip opportunties as we trend down.
I’ve got a few theories running through my head of how things play out over the next week; next few months; and 6 months. I need to write them down first, then I’ll share.

I’m looking for a bounce to fade. I’d like to see 395-400 for re-entry of puts for 2 weeks out with intent to ride it to 390 or below.
I’m not in a rush and will not do anything on Wednesday if neither of those are tested.

Maverick 23:40 PM - Sep 12 2022

Stock Market Day Ahead - September 13, 2022 - SPY - 400/420 range; CPI day; buckle up!

SPY traded 408.50 to 412
It was a low volume and no news Monday.
We just knocked around in a 4 point range with traders making final moves for tomorrow’s CPI data
I ditched my large puts position for a loss, just owned up to the fact I had a terrible entry based on bad chart reading. There’s too high a chance this will rip up to 420. I will re-enter puts after CPI at either 425 or 400. 400 is confirmation. 420+ would just be too tempting ahead of JPow next week.
I entered a strange of decent size for tomorrow: 4120c / 4080p exp 9/13. I need SPY to move at least 5 points from 411 to make this work (either direction). Anything more than that is a tidy profit.

SPY levels: 390, 396, 400, 405, 410, 416, 420
Chart - Weekly: Bullish - tons of room to go up if CPI comes in positive (cool/cool)
Chart - Daily: Bullish - same as weekly.
Chart - 4h: Bullish - plenty of room to go up if CPI hits.

It should be obvious by now, but Tuesday is all about CPI. It’s the only thing that matters - and we get it premarket at 0830.
The technicals are either a wonderfully orchestrated bull trap OR we’re going to explode on cool data OR this 20 point run has priced in cool CPI data. I am not sure which.
It would be a big surprise if we came in hot/hot. The market is very much expecting headline to come down.
If we get a mixed report - cool topline, warm/sticky core - there could be little movement due to 20 point run.
If we get hot/hot, we’re going to crater to 400 or lower.
If we get cool/cool, we’re going to 420.

I’ll be exiting my options strangle at the open, unless I think the market responded incorrectly to the data - I’ll need to read it quickly.
My worst case situation (and it would indeed be nasty) is if we open flat. I need +/- 5 to be a happy boy.
After this, I’ll be looking to enter those puts again above 420 or at 400 - and holding up to JPow, at least.

Maverick 18:30 PM - Sep 11 2022

Stock Market Week Ahead: September 12, 2022 - SPY 390/420 possible range; CPI is event of the week; bullish technicals.

Economic Calendar: https://stonks.chat/feed/catalysts (we recently added this - it’s very good/comprehensive)

Tuesday: CPI (August) @ 0830 ⚠️- this is market event of the week
Wednesday: PPI @ 0830
Thursday: Retail sales @ 0830; Jobless claims @ 0830; NY Manufacturing Index @ 0830
Friday: Nothing.

Thoughts - General:

We’ve got a trend setting week upon us. Tuesday we’ve got CPI data, which is event of the week/rest of month (more important than FOMC)
CPI Headline will almost certainly cool (continuing ‘peak inflation’ narrative), however Core CPI is unlikely to come down and will likely push higher.
That makes it a mixed report, but Core CPI is what Fed is looking at. It will just solidify the 75bps next week at FOMC.
I think even if we saw cool/cool, we’d be looking at 75bps - because employment isn’t tame yet. The man was clear he needs several months of positive reports to change his position.
Ukraine/Russia situation had a positive development (for Ukraine) with them gaining back some ground and showing signs of the war pushing back the other way
I am long-term bearish, but I do think we’re going to see 420 before we see below 400 again — if the CPI report data comes in as I expect it to.
REMINDER: FOMC is September 21.

Thoughts - Technical:

SPY levels (no change from last week): 390, 396, 400, 405, 410, 416, 420
Chart - Weekly: Bullish (this is the one I had backwards and cost me a lot) - it’s trending UP now.
Chart - Daily: Bullish - we got the bounce we expected from last Sunday’s report. There’s more to go.
Chart - 4h: Bullish - same as Daily - plenty more to go on the upside

Trading Plan (Monday):

I am very bullish for this week - but there’s no reason to gamble against the CPI on Tuesday. I’ll be setting up a strangle.
I think we’ll touch 410 at some point on Monday, so if there’s 2-3 points of upside (ie 417-418), I’ll play some quickie calls.
I’ve got this damn puts position I entered way too early, but it’s out in November, so I’ll just keep watching it bleed for now.
The real move for Monday is setting up a strangle ahead of Tuesday premarket CPI data. I’ll do that right at the close, regardless of price using a 1DTE pair.

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Maverick 22:18 PM - Sep 08 2022

Stock Market Day Ahead - September 9, 2022 - SPY - 401/405; quiet Friday; bulls are in control. 📈

SPY traded 394 to 401
ECB hiked 75bps - which was necessary for Europe - much more to go.
This seemed to confuse the market in the morning. It dipped down to 394, then rocketed up to 401, only to come right back to 395 and then grind up to 401 again
Something happened at exactly 12pm EST - and I haven’t figured it out yet - but need to do so. If not for that, we’d be 405 at the close.
I wasn’t able to make any trades today, but we did end green, so my ego is intact.

SPY levels: 390, 396, 400, 405, 410
Chart - Weekly: Bullish. I read this chart completely backwards. It’s a trend reversal to bullish - not bearish like I’ve been saying since the weekend.
Chart - Daily: Bullish - big bounce off those almost oversold technicals. Looks like start of a good move upwards.
Chart - 4h: “Bullish as hell - this was the chart that called today and the one that will call tomorrow..” I said that yesterday and it remains in place.

Technicals all point toward a bullish Friday.
ECB going big on rate hike - bullish fundamental event for stocks. The only dark side of this is you then get recession fears (warranted). However, inflation is worse than recession.
Low volume Friday, bullish technicals (short and medium term), only thing that would that would get in the way is an unexpected fundamental event OR a little de-risking ahead of CPI next week.
We’ve got three Fed officials talking, but low impact.
REMINDER: CPI is next Tuesday - September 13.
REMINDER: FOMC is September 21. It seems like a lock we’ll get another 0.75% now, unless a jobs report of the final CPI shock and awes.

I’m short-term bullish AF, so I’ll be looking to grab calls with 10 days on them at 400-402 and exit 405.
Long-term bearish: as I’ve completely misread the weekly chart until today, I might need to reconsider my November puts position. I’m long-term bearish, but they’re probably going to get punished for a while. Anything - literally anything - positive in CPI will send this further up.

Maverick 23:14 PM - Sep 07 2022

Stock Market Day Ahead - September 8, 2022 - SPY - 393/401 range; ECB will move the DXY; JPow speaks.

SPY traded 390 to 398.50 today, +7 for the day - nice.
Bulls were in control all day, which is what my Week Ahead was calling for
I’ve played calls twice this week and both times worked out nice. VIX, DXY, and TNX all cooled off and we went boom.
I’ve bought two SPXp at key levels (393, 396), but I’m just shopping. They’re for November 30.
Brainard spoke today, but there wasn’t nothing new.

SPY levels: 385, 390, 396, 400, 405, 410
Chart - Weekly: Neutral, looking for a direction, but the Ripster Cloud cross DOWN remains in place.
Chart - Daily: Bullish - big bounce off those almost oversold technicals.
Chart - 4h: Bullish as hell - this was the chart that called today and the one that will call tomorrow..

Technicals all point toward a bullish Thursday.
The direction will be set in premarket with two items
ECB will announce its rate hike - which is likely why you saw the DXY cooling so much today
JPow speaks at 9:10am - I don’t expect much out of this. What else is going to say? No new data to talk about.
Only way I can see Thursday not ending green is if the action we saw today was the pricing in of tomorrow’s ECB hikes - certainly possible.
REMINDER: CPI is next Wednesday - September 14.
REMINDER: FOMC is September 21. It seems like a lock we’ll get another 0.75% now, unless a jobs report of the final CPI shock and awes.

Long-term SPY chart, monthly.

I think we're going to have the perfect storm to take us down below the trend line on/before April 1, 2023.

I closed my calls out before the close, but I’m probably going to regret that by the open. It was a hell of a run though…
I’ll be looking to throw another SPXp in my shopping cart on a break above 401; and another at 405/407

Maverick 23:03 PM - Sep 05 2022

Stock Market Week Ahead: September 6, 2022 - SPY 385/407 week range; short/low volume trading week; technical bounce coming. 📈

Economic Calendar: https://stonks.chat/feed/catalysts (we recently added this - it’s very good/comprehensive)

Tuesday: Nothing.
Wednesday: Brainard @ 12:35pm
Thursday: Jobless claims @ 0830am; JPow @ 9:10am (don’t expect much here); ECB meeting (50/75bps hike)
Friday: Nothing.

Thoughts - General:

I’ve spent this evening looking at some charts. In particular, a 15 year, monthly chart (see previous post), and the one you’ll see at the bottom - Weekly.
Both say the same thing - the trend is down and it has all the storms brewing to keep it that way for the next 6-9 months.
On that basis, I’m going to change up my strategy a bit. I’m going to slowly build up a long-term SPX puts position and will try hard not to cut it loose. If I do, I’ll re-enter. I’ll be collecting up: SPX 3800p (10/31), 3750p (11/30), 3700p (12/30).
We’ll call that my ‘core’ position, since that’s where I see the market going ‘long-term’
I’ll carry on doing swings/trades off lines and events as normal with smaller size (by comparison).
So, for this week? I think the bulls will have this week if they can round up some buyers. There’s really nothing on the agenda this week and will be low volume all week. The technicals (see below) are calling for a bounce very soon (early as Tuesday). Stick to the levels though. This won’t be a huge bounce without a surprise fundamental event.
There are some wildcards out there: Oil & Russia; JPow on Thursday (likely nothing - but you never know with him); DXY (cracked 110 today…)
The action is next week.
REMINDER: CPI is next Wednesday - September 14.
REMINDER: FOMC is September 21. It seems like a lock we’ll get another 0.75% now, unless a jobs report of the final CPI shock and awes.

Thoughts - Technical:

SPY levels (no change from last week): 385, 390, 396, 400, 405, 410
Chart - Weekly: Bearish - important crossing of the Ripster Clouds happened. New trend to the downside started early last week.
Chart - Daily: Neutral - we’re getting close to a bottom on RSI - so bounce is coming up - probably over 400.
Chart - 4h: Neutral/bullish - we’re a full week into oversold territory - but like I warned last SUnday - the 4h can do that. It’s not a quick bounce. However, we’re been oversold for a while now - so much like the Daily - it’s coming soon.

Trading Plan (Tuesday):

I’ll be looking to nibble on long-term puts at 400+
I held a Sept 12 SPX 3950 call over weekend for fun. Based on technicals above, it might be worth just holding it for 24-48 hours.
The move is calls a week out, if there’s any move at all.

Most important chart to me:

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Maverick 21:55 PM - Sep 05 2022

SPY Chart: Looking ahead to April 1, 2023

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Maverick 00:46 AM - Sep 01 2022

Stock Market Day Ahead - September 1, 2022 - SPY - 390/396; more pain before a bounce; brace yourself. 😱

I’ve got SPX calls - painful.
Scenario 1: I’ll add to that pile at 390 and bounce; I’ll exit on a bounce above 396. That should put me near flat.
Scenario 2: I get onboard with the weekly chart, ditch my position for big loss at 390 break, go huge on October puts and ride this pig to 380.
Going into Friday, I plan to play the jobs data post-news and ride the wave.

SPY traded 395 to 401
Bulls tried at the open, but selling knocked them back out. It’s fade the rip season, has been all week.
My scenario triggered, but let’s not talk about where I actually bought those calls. 🔪
NVDA or Suez Canal news knocked the hell out of the SPY in after hours, as well. It’s -2.5 more in AH.
396 broke - major support.
393 broke in after hours.

SPY levels: 380, 390, 396, 400, 405
Chart - Weekly: Bearish - important crossing of the Ripster Clouds. Long ways to go down now.
Chart - Daily: Bearish - Pullback continues.
Chart - 4h: Bearish - We’re in oversold now. This one in particular can press on for a few days - so I wouldn’t take the bait quite yet - but be ready for a bounce.

Weekly chart called the summer rally.
Weekly chart looks to be calling this dip - and we’ve got so much further to go.
There’s not really powerful/high volume selling, but there’s just no buyers. Why would there be?
I can’t think of any reasons to buy here except technical bounce that’ll be weak and short-lived. Fundamentals say it’s going way farther down.
I’m looking for continued downward pressure on Thursday without any fundamental event to rescue it.
Friday is the only shot the bulls have. The technicals will be prime for a bounce, so if there’s even a ray of hope in those jobs numbers, we’ll get a big bounce.

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Maverick 21:17 PM - Aug 30 2022

Stock Market Day Ahead - August 31, 2022 - SPY - 396/400; QQQ consolidation; good luck BBBY apes! 🦍

I’ve got no position heading into Wednesday.
Swing - Buy: I’ll be looking to buy calls off another 396 test.
Swing - Sell: If I get them, I’ll be looking at 400 as exit level - though if Friday weren’t in the way - I’d be looking for more.
I’m looking at Friday do make a bigger move - but how I play it will depend on technical situation on Thursday. Keeping it in mind.

SPY traded in a range of 396 to 404
The selling pressure (and lack of buyers) continued and we slammed right into the 396 level and bounced. Pleased by that, as that was my level.
I was thinking I was going to exit my calls for a tidy profit looking at premarket - we were almost 407! It ate it by the open.
The open at 404 ended up being high of the day and we just kept pressing down and then I exited on the JOLTS data which was bearish for market.
I played SPX puts down to 396 and made back most of my losses. Still, very unsatisfactory, because I was in the right play yesterday before flip flopping.
Today was confirmation of what we expected: Jobs data matters.
I exited the BBBY calls at the open for a little profit. That was fun. It went a little higher after I sold, but it dropped to 11.50 from 15.00 by end of day. I hope it does well at business update tomorrow.

SPY levels: 390, 396, 400, 405, 410
Chart - Weekly: Bearish - important crossing of the Ripster Clouds happened as expected. This is big break in trend to the downside.
Chart - Daily: Bearish - Pullback continues. Still some room to go down, but bounce is on horizon.
Chart - 4h: Bearish - We’re in oversold now. This one in particular can press on for a few days - so I wouldn’t take the bait quite yet - but be ready for a bounce.

I really wanted to hold just one SPX call overnight, but I missed that by 1 second (literally) on the fill at 4:15pm. We’ll see if I was lucky or had bad timing. A bounce is coming - and may have already started off that 396 test.
We’ve got Mester at 8am, but that’s it - what else can they say?
There is ADP jobs data, but their value is questionable due to changed formula. It will take time to build credibility back up, I think.
We do have international (Europe) CPI data in premarket. That’s likely to make the DXY dance which we know makes the SPY dance.
Otherwise - not much else on Wednesday is expected.
I expect to see mostly consolidation on Wednesday as we work out technical and wind up for Friday’s main event.

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Maverick 23:01 PM - Aug 29 2022

Stock Market Day Ahead - August 30, 2022 - SPY - 400/407; busy Tuesday economic calendar; Fed Hawks continue… 🦅

Almost a repeat of yesterday. Will execute this after I exit these calls
Swing - Buy: I’ll be looking for any pop (407-410) to buy some late September puts and holding them.
Swing - Sell: If I get them, I’ll be looking at 396 as exit level.

SPY traded in a nice range of 401.20 to 405.84
My only scenario was almost spot on “Swing - Buy: I’ll be looking for any pop (405+) to buy some late September puts and holding them.” 🏆
Instead of sticking to the plan, I deviated. 🤡 I picked up puts at 402.50 to 405. Cut those loose around 404 and flipped to calls. So dumb. Don’t change your plan middle of the trading day due to PRICE ACTION - only if you’ve got a GOOD reason (ie JPow or some other meteorite)
Waiting to buy puts at 405 and holding them even to just the close would have paid off nicely for the day.
Anyway, holding a bag of calls at the moment, but not sweating it quite yet. I did buy shorter strike date than usual (Aug 9) because I wasn’t planning to be in long. I’ll be out by Thursday or roll them.
I do need to stick to the plans I make, it’s really pissing me off, frankly.
I took a punt on BBBY calls for fun. They have an investor update on Wednesday morning premarket. I’ll be out on Tuesday for sure. 🦍
Fed Brainard didn’t do what I was expecting at 2:15pm - it was some other announcement about Fed payment system 🤷‍♀️
Then Fed Kashkari, who wasn’t on any calendar that I saw, came in off the top rope and danced on the grave of the bulls.
Weird day.

SPY levels: 396, 400, 405, 410
Chart - Weekly: Bearish - important crossing of the Ripster Clouds happened as expected. This is big break in trend to the downside.
Chart - Daily: Bearish - Pullback continues. Plenty of room to go down.
Chart - 4h: Bearish - Getting close to oversold, so need to be mindful, but this one can press hard into oversold as it’s done many times before.

There’s a busier-than-normal Tuesday agenda: Fed Barkin @ 8am; JOLTS (jobs data) and consumer confidence @ 10am EST; Fed Williams @ 11am
The market has taken quite a beating in the last few days. While I’m long-term bearish, I expect Tue-Thu be lower volume, which normally favors the bulls and I think that will be the case starting around 12pm on Tuesday.
I’ll exit my BBBY calls on Tuesday - hopefully for some dinner money.
I’ll be looking to exit my calls on SPX around SPY 407/408 - expecting we’ll see that by Wednesday EOD on a relief rally
This weekly chart is significant for general trend (non-intraday)

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Maverick 22:18 PM - Aug 28 2022

Stock Market Week Ahead: August 29, 2022 - SPY 396/410 range this week; technicals reset; Fed Hawks all week

Economic Calendar: https://stonks.chat/feed/catalysts (we recently added this - it’s very good/comprehensive)

Monday: Fed Brainard @ 2:15pm EST
Tuesday: Fed Barkin @ 8am; JOLTS (jobs data) and consumer confidence @ 10am EST; Fed Williams @ 11am
Wednesday: Fed Mester speaks - she’s a hawk - at 8am. Eurozone CPI premarket.
Thursday: Not much - though anything jobs related will be increasingly important.
Friday: Non-farm payrolls @ 8:30am (important, last one before FOMC September)

Thoughts - General:

Friday recap: I made a critical error on Friday about 20 min before JPow spoke - I tinkered with my options strangle and biased it towards calls. That broke the entire point of a strangle and whatever you want to call the nonsense I had, it was a ~4.5x difference in profits. It was a way more wild day that I was expecting (I was thinking 5-7 point move in either direction) and was set up perfectly for it.
Lessons: Trust the plan and research that you’ve put the time and effort into.. Execute the plan. Don’t tinker without a confirmed reason.
Looking forward….
Jobs data will be much more important going forward. so I’ll need to pay more attention to those reports..
JPow wants to break the employment numbers before he eases up on the gas. He made that clear.
If you haven’t watched the speech, you really need to. it’s less than 10 min 🍿 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJ3sEeArWlw&ab_channel=CNBCTelevision
This week, we’ve got Fed speakers all over the place. It will be little hawks flying around and warnings about ‘not yet seen peak inflation’
Ukraine - this is more on edge with the shelling of the nuclear plant - keep an eye out here. I really hope they aren’t that stupid.
DXY will continue to move up - 110 or higher - and bring SPY pain - until ECB/rest of world gets its rates up higher (they’re moving slow). ECB has CPI data this week which will encourage some big boy hikes.
Samosa has a good theory that we’re returning to SPY 396 - where it was before JPow sent it on the ‘neutral’ comment. He thinks Friday blows out any reason for the run we had and it will return to where it came from - at least. I agree.
At 396 (and probably 400), we’re going to catch a bid and get some support and possibly a bounce. Nothing goes straight down.
REMINDER: FOMC is September 21. It seems like a lock we’ll get another 0.75% now, unless a jobs report of the final CPI shock and awes.
NOTE: Next Monday is Labor Day, US markets are closed. Expect volume to come back strong after that with all the boys back in town from their summer slumber.

Thoughts - Technical:

SPY levels (no change from last week): 396, 400, 405, 410
Chart - Weekly: Bearish - important crossing of the Ripster Clouds should happen on Monday. This is big break in trend to the downside.
Chart - Daily: Bearish - Pullback continues. Plenty of room to go down.
Chart - 4h: Bearish - Getting close to oversold, so need to be mindful, but this one can press hard into oversold as it’s done many times before.
I’ve removed 1h and less because I’m not very focused on that short of time frame right now.

Trading Plan (Monday):

I haven’t been doing many intraday trades, just swings.
I’m full bear mode right now, so puts are all I’ll enter until we hit 396/400. I currently have no positions after Friday.
Swing - Buy: I’ll be looking for any pop (405+) to buy some late September puts and holding them.
Swing - Sell: If I get them, I’ll be looking at 396.50 as exit level.

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Maverick 22:03 PM - Aug 25 2022

Market Day Ahead - August 26, 2022 - SPY - 410/430; PCE + JPow; LET’S DO THIS!

I am just going to write based on my position.
Scenario 1: If PCE makes the market move huge at the open (either direction), I’ll close the strangle and probably do another before JPow at 10am.
Scenario 2: If PCE doesn’t make the market move much/enough, I’ll hold my position until JPow.
The worst case scenario for me is the market to do nothing from 419. That would fry my ass. I need 5 points in either direction to make this work.
After JPow is done speaking, I’ll close it, no matter what.
Then I’m done for the week.

Almost nothing happened this week after Monday, which was basically expected. So, I didn’t do any trades or daily updates. Just held on to my Monday position I got stuck in.
Today SPY traded in a nice range of 414 to 419.50
I exited my Monday SPX call position when SPY was around 416.75 this morning. Took a 10% loss, but those bags were getting HEAVY, so 10% hit looked great. I didn’t see that 419 rally coming, but that would have put me at a profit. Doh!
I had and funny & unexpected - but profitable - situation happen. The only trade I wanted to do all week was an option strangle (or straddle) for Friday. Well, I decided to setup the strangle at 3:20pm - that I was intending to hold overnight into PCE & JPOW. Now if you look at the chart, you’ll see that’s moments before the SPY exploded upwards from 417.
So what happened is the call side went up by about 50% and the puts declined by about 35%. It was enough profit not to ignore and would have put me lopsided going into tomorrow (not the point of a strangle). So I locked in the profit and setup a new strangle higher up (at 420) and was pretty balanced.
NVDA missed last night.
Pretty much all the news is bad out there. Which is good?

SPY levels: 405, 410, 416, 420
Chart - Weekly: Neutral - waiting for direction.
Chart - Daily: Neutral/Bullish - waiting for direction, but leaning bullish.
Chart - 4h: Bullish: Party time.
Chart - 1h: Bullish: Big move inbound.

It’s the day we’ve all been waiting for: PCE (8:30am) + JPow (10am)
I can’t imagine at least one of those two not giving us a big move (5+).
If CPI was a guide to PCE, then we’re going to see some cooling in PCE.
JPow is the wild card. I always think he’s going to be a hawk in the wild. If so, he’s going to have a ‘I’m bringing the heat, you idiots, how many times do I have to tell you?’ tone. If not, and he even winks at 0.5% for September, we’ll be at 425/430.
Technicals are wound up for a big move on Friday, really, in either direction.
If I’m guessing, I’d say Friday is very green. If it’s not, then they set a nasty bull trap at the close on Thursday!
Good luck, I’m hoping it’s going to be a fun morning and a steak lunch.

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Maverick 00:35 AM - Aug 23 2022

Market Day Ahead - August 23, 2022 - SPY - 412/416 range; technical taxes paid; 30m/1h interesting; chop.

Scenario 1: If we open under 412, give it 10 min to hold the line, then calls to 415.25
Scenario 2: If we open near 416 on no news, puts are on the table back to 414/412.
Note: I’m holding SPX calls (unintentionally) currently.
Keep this one in your pocket from Sunday: Swing Scenario 2: Take the week off. Do a straddle on Thursday before the close. Sell after PCE & JPow send it one way.

SPY traded between 412 and 417
From Sunday’s Week Ahead: “i’m looking for another 10 points of a dip to add to Friday’s 6 (total of 20 off the high - ie 410/412)”
Did I play that? Nope. I played my Scenario 1 which was wrong (it never bounced back up). Stood in front of a bear I spent all last week warning was coming.
The drop in premarket was like bees to honey on the 30m/1hr. It worked out all those overbought conditions on all the charts and went wildly oversold on the 30/1.
I just kept buying calls all the way down, lowest buy was around 413 on SPY. My break even on SPX is 4165 (~415.85 SPY)
I’ll enjoy my overnight Gucci bags. I hope I’m not holding these all week, because I’ve got very clear trade I want to make on Thursday/Friday.
AMC & APE - I have no words for that mess.
DXY crossed 109 🌶
Today looked primarily technical with a little bit of oil & Ukraine news mixed in there.

SPY levels: 405, 410, 416, 420
Chart - Weekly: Bearish/Neutral - looks like a small pullback in play before it pushes higher.
Chart - Daily: Bearish - Pullback in progress as expected last week
Chart - 4h: Bearish/Neutral - it worked out all those overbought conditions out today; probably more to go on Tuesday though before it levels out
Chart - 1h: Neutral/Bullish - this got slammed hard into oversold territory - but see chart below.

Economic Calendar #1: https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

We’re down around 15 points in two sessions (Friday & Monday).
We got the 20 points total off the high I was looking for - a day early (costly day early for me). Right on the head, too, at 412. Now what….
PMI data premarket (International) + 0945 (US)
If the DXY cools because of this, it’ll trigger a little bounce. If it pushes on to 110, we’re going to feel quite a bit more SPY pain.
DXY is right at its recent highs where it ran into resistance
I was suckered in on the 30m/1hr chart for calls, but in looking back to June, that might be a problem. It looks exactly the same, and we just kept pushing down, then went sideways for a while. It took 2 months to claw it back. Careful…
We’re strolling into Friday with PCE data & JPow doing a mini-talk, though - so you’ve got those wildcards/possible bullish catalysts.
I’d guess we’ve paid most of our technical taxes that were overdue; rest of week is probably chop with a tiny bias to upside.
We’re probably stuck in 412-416 for a couple days.

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Maverick 23:28 PM - Aug 21 2022

Week Ahead: August 22, 2022 - SPY 410/430 range; DXY is key all week; JPow + PCE on Friday 🌶

Economic Calendar #2: https://stonks.chat/feed/catalysts

Monday: Nothing.
Tuesday: Not much, PMI at 9:45am
Wednesday: Nothing.
Thursday: Nothing exciting.
Friday: PCE @ 8:30am (very important); UMich Sentiment @ 10am; JPow speaks from Jackson Hole @ 10am EST 🌶

Thoughts - General:

SPY kept marching up last week, topping out at 432 and then (finally) started pulling back - closing at 422 on Friday. Impressive, SPY, well done 👏
I’m looking for another 10 points of a dip to add to Friday’s 6 (total of 20 off the high - ie 410/412)
Tuesday looks red - PMI data will released; Europe is in bad shape and UK may get to 15% on inflation in 2023 (probably where US is, in reality)
DXY - should keep inching up on the back of US rate hikes and Europe/elsewhere getting worse
I don’t see anything else until Friday when the real party starts. 🎉
PCE is out on Friday morning at 0830am - very important to Fed. The market will have one hour to react before JPow speaks, so the VIX should make for some expensive options for 30-45minutes.
JPow will speak at 10am EST from Jackson Hole where he and his banker buddies are having their annual meetup.
He’s known to be more hawkish in the wild. He could move the market down quickly if he pushes back that inflation isn’t peaked yet and he’s going to keep bringing the heat to the tune of 0.75% or higher.
On the flip side, if he has folks thinking it’ll be 0.50% in September and we will just go down from there on hikes, then put on your moon shoes. He’ll send it.
It could go either way because the others seem to be a bit more hawkish than him after the July meeting came across.
This is why you can’t hold anything overnight that’s one-sided. I’ll do an overnight straddle (Friday 0DTEs) on Thursday at the close - market will have been waiting all week for a reason to go big in either direction - so they will.
Overall? I’d guess Monday is pretty flat. Tuesday is down. Wednesday flat/down. Thursday flat/down. Friday very green.
The underlying economy is getting worse and I think we’re in the final hoorah stage of this cycle. I expect us to push higher, maybe even testing all time SPY high, but then…..it’s coming way, way down and setting new lows. I wanted to post this chart over weekend, but I didn’t get around to. I will…

Thoughts - Technical:

SPY levels (no change from last week): 405, 416, 420, 429.50, 437
Chart - Weekly: Bearish/Neutral - looks like a small pullback in play before it pushes higher.
Chart - Daily: Bearish - Pullback in progress (that I was waiting for lat week…)
Chart - 4h: Bearish - Same
Chart - 1h: Neutral/Bullish - Hmm, this one could pull up hard if it has a spark.

Trading Plan (Monday):

It’s getting a bit tough to do daytrades because the range is so muted and volume so light. Swings are probably the way to go right now, so I’ll do both - but with higher confidence in the Swings.
Daytrade Scenario 1: If we open below 420, give it 15 min, then calls back to 420+.
Daytrade Scenario 2: If we open above 423, puts to 420.
Swing Scenario 1: Puts at 423-425 Monday. Hold until Wednesday/Thursday. Get the hell out of the way before Friday.
Swing Scenario 2: Take the week off. Do a straddle on Thursday before the close. Sell after PCE & JPow send it one way.

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Maverick 23:35 PM - Aug 18 2022

Market Day Ahead - August 19, 2022 - SPY - 426/430 range; low volume Friday; next week we get fireworks. 🎇

Scenario 1: If we dip to 426 and bounce off it, I’ll take calls to 428/430.
Scenario 2: If we dip to 425 and break it, I’ll just clap.
Scenario 1 is most likely, but I doubt I’ll trade at all on Friday unless I’ve just got an itch or it looks to be on autopilot like last Friday (will check it at 11am)

SPY traded between 425.50 and 428.61
I had an overnight SPXp that I exited 5 minutes after ht open. Wasn’t the bottom, but it covered lunch. I shouldn’t have done it in the first place.
DXY - this moved up all day, just about in a straight line, to close +1.00 from the open. That’s not trivial. How the SPY managed to close green with that is a real show of strength.
Looking at the volume, I think this was the second or third lowest in months.
Not really surprising. It’s just ticking up and no news of significance to push it either way - and the SPY always leans green if it’s on autopilot.
BBBY got thrashed (in after hours) by Cohen selling out. I was surprised at how fast he was able to file the 144 and fully sell his position; didn’t that it was possible.

SPY levels: 405, 416, 420, 429.50, 437
Chart - Weekly: Neutral - we may have a top in (431). Friday/Monday will confirm/correct that.
Chart - Daily: Bearish - hugging that overbought RSI. Pullback still pending.
Chart - 4h: Bearish - riding that overbought RSI line, consolidating. Incredible strength, but the drop is coming..
Chart - 1h: Neutral - nothing to see here.

As I noted, earlier, today’s volume was second or third lowest in months.
Where are the sellers? I continue to think next week we’re going to have a big pullback (20+) and a big spike in volume.
There’s absolutely nothing on the calendar for Friday. More chop with a bias to upside, I’d guess. 🤷‍♂️
Probably very close to Thursday’s action.
Heads up: NEXT week is going to be a bit more interesting. We’ll go into the weekend with overbought technicals, then we have PCE and other data on Friday morning and a possible JPow speaking in the wild. 🔥
I intend to make a post over the weekend drawing the chart for the next 6 months. I’m feeling confident in it.

Maverick 22:47 PM - Aug 17 2022

Market Day Ahead - August 18, 2022 - SPY - 420/430 range; Technicals & Levels are focus, especially QQQ 330.

Scenario 1: We open over 428, calls to 430 (max). There would need to be some news to push it.
Scenario 2: We open under 425.50, puts to 422/420. Purely technical if it happens. Don’t mess with 420 though.
I see very limited upside and a potential party on the downside. If neither happens, that’s absolutely fine by me.

SPY traded between 424.50 and 429.50
🏆 “Scenario 2: We open under 427, puts to 424. I already have mine, so I’d sell - happily.”
I exited my puts at 425.40-ish (11am). If I would have stuck to my plan would have gotten much closer to nailing the bottom 45 min later, but let’s be real - I was just happy to be out of that bleeding and growing puts position with a profit.
Premarket: TGT whiffed; UK inflation still going (DXY spiked); these took the SPY down from 430 to 426 by the open.
Then we just chop boxed with a bias to downside (no surprise with technicals so overbought) - until 2pm FOMC minutes were released.
I did a little gamble on calls just before the release and that paid off (sold the first candle on the pop). Don’t do this at home, pure gambling. It powered on to almost 430, then gave it all up to return to exactly where it was at 2pm (before announcement) - 427
While the minutes didn’t reveal anything earth shattering, I’d say they were bullish overall (for market)

SPY levels: 405, 416, 420, 429.50, 437
Chart - Weekly: Neutral/Bearish - how interesting! We’ve got a turn/pause in the weekly. MACD looking extended. RSI in nowhere zone.
Chart - Daily: Bearish - overbought. Pullback may have started today - consolidation at a minimum.
Chart - 4h: Bearish - sam as Daily, really.
Chart - 1h: Neutral - we’re out of overbought, but it could go either way from here. Look to 4HR/D.

JPow is still on my mind. As as the current technicals. Rest of the week will continue to be low volume. I think the bulls are going to take a breather on Thursday and the bears will poke it a bit to see how much fight its got. I don’t see any big drop tomorrow because there’s no catalyst, unless they want to sort these technicals out. We’ll see. Keep you eyes on the levels.
I still think we’re looking at next week for a big (20+) move downward, though today could easily be the top - but I’m not confident in that.
I don’t really see anything on the calendar that will move the market. Maybe the two Fed people at 1:20pm and 1:45pm?
Note: Next week is going to be a bit more interesting. We’ll look at the calendar on Sunday.

SPY weekly (3Y)

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Maverick 23:50 PM - Aug 16 2022

Market Day Ahead - August 17, 2022 - SPY - 424/432 range; FOMC Minutes; Retail Sales; Overbought technicals

Scenario 1: We open over 430, calls to 432. Be quick….that’s where the 200MA resistance is at. Don’t hold through 2pm minutes release.
Scenario 2: We open under 427, puts to 424. I already have mine, so I’d sell - happily.
Both sides of this are a dangerous game - bulls are in charge, but good GRIEF the technicals are overbought. A negative spark will bring it down quick due to low volume.

SPY traded between 427 and 432
Neither scenario played out - which was fine, again.
I am still holding those puts and added another one to the pile today @ 430. This is purely a technical trade. The market has every reason to bullish AF right now.
WMT beat expectations; HD sorta did. Not real market moving news in the end.
I didn’t catch anything else interesting - it’s a really quiet week, which is why we’re seeing low volume bull move.

SPY levels: 405, 416, 420, 429.50, 437
Chart - Weekly: Bullish - this one suggests the Hot Girl Summer Rally still has more to go. (Same as Sunday)
Chart - Daily: Bearish - overbought. Pullback or consolidation incoming. (Same)
Chart - 4h: Bearish - painfully overbought. Pullback or consolidation incoming. (Same, even more painful to look at.)
Chart - 1h: Neutral - the chart is out of overbought, but still pushing up.

Tonight I watched JPow’s press conference from July 27. It’s no wonder the market has rallied and continues to defy all technicals. I made a critical error in not watching this despite my offline time. Cost me 40 points of easy money on SPY.
Now we’re in way overbought conditions, so we may get a technical pullback, but I think we continue raging on upwards after it pays its taxes (which I don’t think will be much, unfortunately)
After it does that, it’s all about the weekly chart, which I’ll post again. How is this not COVID bounce all over again? Sure, you don’t have QE, but the amount of cash on the sidelines is massive. It’s starting to flow in, clearly on peak inflation and what is likely to be end to rate hikes not far off.
I do think there will be an inflection point where we start pulling back hard in Q4 due to weak earnings/demand, but that’s not right now.
Wednesday we have UK CPI @ 2am EST; Retails Sales @ 0830.
Then we have Fed Minutes release at 2pm. This is NOT a new rate hike, but just the minutes from July meeting. Unlikely to see anything earth shattering, but it’s possible.
Let’s hope for a technical pullback sparked by…..anything. Give me 7-10 points….
I want to see 410, then I’m loading the hell up on calls for September.

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Maverick 22:37 PM - Aug 15 2022

Market Day Ahead - August 16, 2022 - SPY - 423/432 range; WMT & HD will call it; waiting on that pullback. 🤡

Scenario 1: We open above 430 on good WMT/HD news, I’ll do nothing - I can’t stomach calls up here - yet.
Scenario 2: If we open above 430 on bad/mixed WMT/HD news, I’ll add another SPX put - I like pain.
Scenario 3: If we open below 425 on bad/mixed WMT/HD news & housing data, I’ll be looking to exit my SPX puts around 423-425.

SPY traded between 425 and 429

Neither scenario played out - which was fine. I was conflicted as hell in my Week Ahead, so sidelines was a good seat.

I did fumble the ball on my puts. I was given a gift at the open of 425 and didn’t pull the trigger (I was at a tidy profit on the ones I held over weekend). I was looking for 424 and little did I know that the open would be the low of the day. So now I’m still holding them at 428. 🤡 stonks.chat/user-trades/978
The only news of significance I saw was “US: NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index slumps to -31.3 vs. 8.5 expected” — this is what caused the dip in premarket - but this was shrugged off within 5 minutes of the open. Impressive, but maybe not smart - that print wasn’t insignificant.
We otherwise just had a low volume bull Monday, similar to Friday

Technicals (Latest)

SPY levels: 405, 416, 420, 429.50, 437
Chart - Weekly: Bullish - this one suggests the Hot Girl Summer Rally still has more to go. (Same as Sunday)
Chart - Daily: Bearish - overbought. Pullback or consolidation incoming. (Same)
Chart - 4h: Bearish - painfully overbought. Pullback or consolidation incoming. (Same, even more painful to look at.)
Chart - 1h: Neutral - the chart is overbought, but it’s still pushing. 🤷‍♀️

Looking Ahead (Tuesday)

WMT & HD report in premarket - this will set the tone for retail (TGT + Retail Sales numbers are Wednesday).
I’m awful at earnings, but my guess? WMT paints a cautiously optimistic picture having already warned (front loaded bad news) and peak inflation on the mind. HD - guess? meet expectations and warn it’s cooling (a lot of their business is in “not necessary”)
It’s another day for the bulls if they can keep running. If WMT/HD don’t whiff, there is room to keep going on the weekly chart.
If we get a dip for any reason to 424 or lower, I’ll probably exit my puts and try to figure out what’s really going on out there (easier when you don’t have a position bias - which is why I like to exit every day) 🧘
This is either one epic bull trap + bear market rally (60 points!), or the music really has changed.
Looking at the weekly again, it sure looks like it has tons of gas left in it - 450/460. It just looks like every other 6 month bull run we’ve ever had. I still think this is most likely from my Week Ahead “If that’s correct, then we’re going to work these overbought technicals out by consolidation, not a pullback - at least initially. I can see another 7-10 trading days of consolidation up here pretty easily, but if it follows Nov 2021 chart, we’ll get a 20 point pullback on the SPY to fully sort the chart out after that 10 day period.” — so late next week…

Scary chart for bears (SPY Monthly, Long-term)

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Maverick 23:06 PM - Aug 14 2022

Week Ahead: August 15, 2022 - SPY 416/430; Hot Girl Summer Rally in final stretch?; Retail & Fed Minutes this week.

Economic Calendar #1: https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar

Economic Calendar #2: https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1558488392832372737/photo/1

Monday: Nothing, really. Empire manufacturing at 0830?
Tuesday: Nothing.
Wednesday: UK CPI @ 2am; Retail Sales @ 0830; FOMC MINUTES at 2pm ⚠️
Thursday: I don’t see much right now.
Friday: Nothing.

Thoughts - General:

SPY closed last week at 427 - a full seven points higher than I thought possible. 🤯
Despite that, I traded reasonably well last week, my scenarios hit every day I think. I got whacked on Friday (cost me entire week’s gains) when I went against my planned scenario and fought the tape intraday.
That was dumb and a good reminder to trade the plan - or not at all. The scenario I had for Friday played out for a profit, it’s only when I went rogue I got rocked.
Unfortunately, I piled more on Friday, so let’s hope (I hate using that word in the market - kiss of death) that we get a solid dip on Monday on the back of those way overbought technicals - I’ll exit and reassess.
In last week’s “week ahead”, I suggested two scenarios were possible on the chart. It looks pretty clear it’s this one “October 26, 2021 - went from 455 to 470 by November 8, 2021 before cooling off” and I think the narrative out there supports it - as much as I don’t like it.
If that’s correct, then we’re going to work these overbought technicals out by consolidation, not a pullback - at least initially. I can see another 7-10 trading days of consolidation up here pretty easily, but if it follows Nov 2021 chart, we’ll get a 20 point pullback on the SPY to fully sort the chart out after that 10 day period.
The week is pretty limited on market moving news. The only landmine I see is Wednesday’s FOMC minutes. It’s likely that JPow saying “neutral” is what provided rocket fuel to this rally. If the minutes reveal that’s not the case and he got ahead of himself or words twisted - it’ll pullback on Wednesday pretty hard. Unlikely.
General market thoughts…..
I’m still a bear overall. I think we see new lows EOY or 1Q2023
The sentiment has gone very bullish - as the chart shows - on the back of CPI and “peak inflation” narrative
I do not think this changes the position of the Fed for September 16. In fact, it likely emboldens them to keep it at 0.75 again - and get that balance sheet ramped up for more selling (it’s very slow pace currently)
Fed aside, you can’t ignore that MSFT, GOOGL, AAPL all came out with strong guidance. I think this + JPow neutral comment is primary drivers of this rally.
Are the tech majors really going to power through this with almost no scars? AAPL is just shy of its all time high. MSFT isn’t too far itself. Incredible…
Check out this long-term monthly chart of SPY below. It screams pullback to the line - but when? Why?
The post-covid run we know what happened - QE. That’s over with now - we assume - so what exactly is pushing this up so hard from 363?
It’s dangerous on both sides right now. The chart is begging to be shorted, but it just keeps powering up.
The VIX is low at just under 20 right now - though it can go even lower. Use this as an opportunity to go shopping for long term options, if you are confident in a direction in 6-12 months
DXY is likely to consolidate here with no news on horizon, so nothing exciting here.
Oil is key. If it runs again, inflation isn’t peaking. I think this is what will cause the pullback.
In summary, I’m still bearish - but I’m mindful of just how strong the SPY can rage when the bulls are in charge of the ship. They are currently sitting in the Captain’s chair sipping the finest rum and enjoying the ride.

Thoughts - Technical:

SPY levels: 405, 416, 420, 429.50, 437
Chart - Weekly: Bullish - this one suggests the Hot Girl Summer Rally is well in progress and still has more to go. Grr..
Chart - Daily: Bearish - overbought. Pullback or consolidation incoming.
Chart - 4h: Bearish - painfully overbought. Pullback or consolidation incoming.
Chart - 1h: Neutral - consolidation with bias to the upside

Trading Plan (Monday):

Scenario 1: If we open below 425, puts to 423/422.
Scenario 2: If we open above 428, calls to 430 (max), then stand back - the technicals will be scorching.
I think we’re in a right range on Monday. There’s no news, so it’s going to be chop/consolidation. Wednesday is the day we ride.
I lean towards Scenario 1 with maybe a small pop at the open, then a few point pullback. Nothing major.

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Maverick 22:50 PM - Aug 11 2022

Market Day Ahead - August 12, 2022 - SPY - 416/425 range; UK & FR data premarket; UMich 10am; pullback coming.

Scenario 1: We open below 419, puts to 416.
Scenario 2: If we open above 421 on the back of UK/FR data, we’ll probably keep pushing up until 10am, max 423, then we’re pulling back to 420 (at least).
I don’t feel strongly about either, but I lean Scenario 2.
We’ll see at the open which way it wants to go.

SPY traded between 419 and 425 today
🏆 “Scenario 1: We open above 421, calls to 425 (max) if you’re feeling frisky.”
That scenario played out almost to the penny. I wasn’t able to trade it, but damn…still feels good.
We spent the entire day consolidating - mostly in the green - then gave it all up in the back half o the day to close exactly flat. That’s a rare sight!
The rally was on the back of yesterday’s CPI + today’s PPI. Both were cool and a nod to peak inflation.
I didn’t take note of anything else today.

SPY levels: 405, 416, 420, 425
Chart - Weekly: Bullish - no change here - still room to roar up. It warned us for weeks.
Chart - Daily: Neutral/Bearish - this one is reaching the top of the RSI, so a pullback is coming - Friday?
Chart - 4h: Bearish - we’ve spent the entire week in overbought territory. It’s going to pay for it soon.
Chart - 1h: Neutral - consolidation. Pullback may have started.

We’ve got UK GDP, France CPI in premarket - though I don’t expect these to matter much. UMich Sentiment at 10am does matter. These are likely catalysts for continued move up, but careful of a sell the news/end of week.
It’s a hard call for Friday. We’ll have light volume (bullish), overbought technicals (bearish), some international inflation data (probably bullish), overall sentiment is bullish.
I think the very short-term - as in Friday - favors the bears by end of day. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a chart similar to Thursday, but actually end red.
As this is quite unclear/choppy, don’t take any big positions.

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Maverick 23:48 PM - Aug 10 2022

Market Day Ahead - August 11, 2022 - SPY - 416/425 range; CPI gave us moon shoes; consolidation to upside on Thursday

Scenario 1: We open above 421, calls to 425 (max) if you’re feeling frisky.
Scenario 2: If we open below 418 on bad PPI, then puts to 416.
I really don’t feel strongly about either scenario, but think Scenario 1 is most likely.
I want a pullback, but just don’t see it on Thursday right now. I’d actually like to see us go even harder into overbought, then have a nice ‘pay your technical taxes’ day on Friday to close the week out.

SPY traded pretty tightly between 417 and 420

We gapped up so hard on CPI data that it spent the day consolidating up in the stars

🏆 “Scenario 1: If we gap to 415/416 on good CPI data (cool), give it a few minutes to dance at the open, then calls for a few points, max 420. Don’t try to flip over to puts - dangerous game.”

Samosa called it even better in his Preview - stonks.chat/group/9/posts/582
The market loved the CPI data. It was cool coolish on headline & core, so that’s all it needed to spread ‘peak inflation’ narrative all over the place - and that’s what happened.
That’s all the mattered today.

Technicals (Current)

SPY levels (updated): 405, 416, 420, 425
Chart - Weekly: Neutral/Bullish - so impressed by this one. It’s been speaking to us for weeks now saying bulls were taking it….still room to go, too.
Chart - Daily: Neutral - this one is reaching the top of the RSI, so a pullback is coming - but might not be quite yet.
Chart - 4h: Neutral/Bearish - back into overbought we go. Same, pullback is coming soon - but it won’t be too big with this CPI data now
Chart - 1h: Neutral - consolidation.

Looking Ahead (Thursday)

CPI data gave the bulls something to run with, for sure. How long will it last?
Inflation hasn’t gone away. It’s just slowed down for a month.
There’s plenty of people that think oil prices haven’t peaked yet - and if they take off again - it’ll wreck that CPI again. I’d say I’m in that camp.
The Fed isn’t going to slow down with just one CPI that’s better than expectations. We’re still way above 8% (and they know that number isn’t real, much higher)
I know I sound bearish on what’s a very green day and what seems like positive news on the inflation front, but I need to get into the details on it (this weekend)
We’re talking about tomorrow, though - so let’s do that.
Consolidation with a lean to the upside is all I see for Thursday. The bears only have some overbought conditions to lean on. Bulls have the narrative.
I’m having a hard time making a case for either side for more than a few points, so I doubt I’ll do much on Thursday.
I’m going to need to spend the weekend doing some research
We’ve got PPI data on Thursday morning @ 0830

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Maverick 21:44 PM - Aug 09 2022

Market Day Ahead - August 10, 2022 - SPY - 400/420 range; CPI data at 0830; get ready for big move….

Scenario 1: If we gap to 415/416 on good CPI data (cool), give it a few minutes to dance at the open, then calls for a few points, max 420. Don’t try to flip over to puts - dangerous game.
Scenario 2: If we open below 409 on bad CPI (hot), puts down to 405/400 (max).
Scenario 3: If we open flat with ‘as expected’ CPI data, I will stay away. It'll be confused.
Scenario 2 has the most profit potential.
I think Scenario 1 is most likely to happen.
I consider Scenario 3 very unlikely.

SPY was just chop between 410 and 412.75
🏆 “Scenario 2: If we open below 413, puts to 410. Then stay out of the way - CPI optimism is lurking…”
Nailed it again! (If only I executed as well….). There wasn’t much meat on the bone today.
Coinbase missed big in afterhours - no surprise. Roblox missed.
Nothing else really happened today. As expected, just calm before the Wednesday CPI storm.

Technicals (Tonight)

SPY levels: 390 (major), 396, 405, 416, 420
Chart - Weekly: Neutral/Bullish - it’s all up to CPI to set this trend.
Chart - Daily: Bearish - pullback started and now in progress.
Chart - 4h: Bearish - just out of overbought; could come down a long ways on bad CPI
Chart - 1h: Neutral - consolidation.

This is the moment we’ve been waiting for: CPI data @ 0830
I did not hold overnight, as planned. So I’m ready to rock and roll, whichever way it goes tomorrow.
It simply comes down to how the data shakes out on headline and core.
I expect HEADLINE to be down against last month. Not sure about ‘expectations’ but because it’s down (due to oil), they will have reason to talk about peak inflation.
The CORE number is the tricky one. It could easily do the opposite of the headline and keep marching forward. This will be the one that matters 15 min after the open and will set the course of the day.
If CORE comes in hot/high, we’re going down.
If CORE comes in as expected - slightly down?
If CORE comes in cool - we’re on the way to 420
The technicals lean bearish, but it really could go either way - fortunately it comes out at 0830 so there’s an hour to decide what your move is….

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Maverick 00:09 AM - Aug 09 2022

Market Day Ahead - August 9, 2022 - SPY - 410/417 range; CPI looms; chop; don’t hold overnight!

SPY traded 412 to 417.60
We nailed it on the scenarios: “Scenario 1: If we gap to 416, taking puts down to 412/410.” 🏆
I didn’t do it perfectly, but good enough. I exited about 30 min too early is all (didn’t see the 412 touch..)
House marketing weakening. No surprise.
Nothing else happened today.
It’s just calm before the Wednesday storm of CPI.

Technicals

SPY levels: 390 (major), 396, 405, 416, 420
Chart - Weekly: Neutral/Bullish - I remain impressed by the weekly. It’s strong for the bulls.
Chart - Daily: Bearish - pullback started today we discussed yesterday.
Chart - 4h: Bearish - near enough to overbought, but worked a little out today. This is the main one I’m focused on.
Chart - 1h: Neutral - consolidation.

I’m expecting mostly chop and maybe some de-risking / profit taking ahead of CPI on Wednesday
That said, it could go the other way, too - I’m sure I’m not the only one thinking we’re going to get a cool CPI headline number. It’s just a matter of what the core is. I’ll speculate on what I think happens in hot/cool scenarios tomorrow.
I will NOT be holding anything overnight on Tuesday. That’s gambling, don’t do that.
Despite what could be a big rally coming up if the CPI is cool, I remain - overall - still bearish until EOY.
4hr chart (my preferred one) says we’re pulling back further on Tuesday

Howdy, friends. 👋I’m back. I was away for a week or so. I didn’t make any trades during this time and didn’t follow the market. So, I’m coming in fresh.

Scenario 1: If we gap to 415/416, taking puts down to 412/410.
Scenario 2: If we open below 413, puts to 410. Then stay out of the way - CPI optimism is lurking…
I can only justify puts right now. Calls are off the table right now with these RSI/MACD conditions on 4h chart
Similar strategy to Monday, but reduced risk on Scenario 2
It’s very possible that we open flat at 413/414 and there’s no trade (for me)

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Maverick 23:07 PM - Aug 07 2022

Week Ahead: August 8, 2022 - SPY 400/420; CPI on Wednesday; PPI Thursday; mixed technicals.

Economic Calendar: https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar | https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1556289624091332608/photo/1

Monday: Nothing.
Tuesday: Nothing.
Wednesday: China CPI, Germany CPI, US CPI - all premarket. Fed Speakers @ 11am and 2pm
Thursday: PPI in premarket
Friday: UK GDP, France CPI in premarket; UMICH Sentiment @ 10am

Thoughts - General:

SPY 413 - wow. Last trade I made, it was 391. Looks like Hot Girl Summer Rally started while I was offline.
Looking at just the charts, I think there’s two scenarios that could play out in the coming days/weeks
- October 26, 2021 - went from 455 to 470 by November 8, 2021 before cooling off
- OR June 7, 2022 - consolidation before jumping off a cliff
We’re likely to consolidate to the slight downside until Wednesday - when CPI + Global CPI numbers come in - which will either send HGSR on its way higher OR stop it in its tracks - for now.
The rally we’ve seen seems a bit silly - maybe it's not - but the SPY/market in general just wants to go up - for any reason it can find. It’s default is always to the upside. THere’s also piles of cash on the sidelines that has been waiting for a reason to jump in -- and earnings season wasn’t a let down.
JPow doing another 0.75 (second in a row) makes it seem like we’re on the right track to taming inflation.
We’re likely to see some inflation numbers cooling in this Wednesday CPI report, especially the headline (impacted heavily by falling gas prices), but Core CPI may be a bit tougher to shake — but they will look for ANY positive in the numbers to push it up
Government is warming up its cash firehose again - climate, health, chips, etc. bills in excess of $500B. They’re going to make it rain.
All this sure seems like the final leg before a recession/bust comes in. The warning signs are popping up everywhere in the ECONOMY, not necessary the stock market; despite the job report on Friday.
We also had a better than I expected earnings season - but don’t ignore those warnings we got. On the flip side, we got some very bullish guidance from the majors (MSFT, AAPL, etc)
It’s tough. There’s opinions on both sides that make sense. Technicals are mixed at best.
Regardless of next couple weeks, I think we pull back very hard in 4Q when real economic situation rears its head
I need to read more this week, for sure. Look for further updates during week.

Thoughts - Technical:

SPY levels: 390 (major), 396, 405, 416, 420
Chart - Weekly: Bullish - it broke through the lines/clouds it needed to. Bravo, very impressive. I didn’t think it was going to happen, but it was warning it was possible for a couple weeks. This one says hold my beer, we’re going higher.
Chart - Daily: Bearish - getting ready to pullback.
Chart - 4h: Bearish - overbought. This is the main one I’m focused on.
Chart - 1h: Neutral - consolidation.

Trading Plan (Monday):

Scenario 1: If we gap to 416, taking puts down to 412/410.
Scenario 2: If we open below 413, puts to 410. Close out. If 410 breaks to 409, look to re-enter and possibly hold overnight to 405.
I can only justify puts right now. Calls are off the table with these RSI/MACD conditions.
I think Scenario 1 most likely. Scenario 2 looks like a big stretch and unlikely.
I am going to let one SPX trade out for the entire scenario that happens and not lock in profit early. Only at the price triggers I set. I’ve been seeing too many of these scenarios play out by end of day and I was selling too early and not letting it play out.

SPY, 4h

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Maverick 00:39 AM - Jul 26 2022

Market Day Ahead - July 26, 2022 - SPY - 390/400 range; Consumer Data at 10am is critical (follows consumer-focused premarket earnings $MCD $KO ); looking for tech rally in afternoon. $MSFT $GOOG

SPY traded 393 to 396.50
🏆went to Scenario 1: “If we open below 395, puts to 393/390. Tough trade.” - it took all day in the chop box, but it played out. Tough trade, like I said.
I entered SPX puts about 5 minutes after the open and closed them out on the first 394 drop. I was done for the day after and happy with result.
WMT issued a warning ahead of its Aug 16 ER: “Walmart cuts profit outlook as inflation forces shoppers to spend more on necessities”
WMT fell 9% and took several others with it: TGT, AMZN, etc.
Reminder that this is why you don’t hold overnight. There was a big rally right at the close (almost +3 to bring it flat), then WMT came out of nowhere in afterhours. Careful, there will be more. Traps everywhere.
It was otherwise chop with bias to downside.
Good news? Monday is over!
Bad news? This was the easy day this week.

SPY Trading Plans (Tuesday)

Reports: Consumer Confidence Index & New Home Sales @ 10am
- This may print a low, but I think pace of drop will start slowing - but not stopping
- New Home Sales are going to be a weak print.
- I think we’ll see a drop at 10am on these reports
Earnings: Major Dow components PM (including KO, MCD, etc), MSFT, GOOG, V in AH
- The morning is about consumers, consumers, consumers; afternoon is hoping tech holds market on its shoulders.
- Expecting bearish movement after 10am - but be on the ready for a big run end of day heading into these two tech earnings after hours.
- I think MSFT strikes a bearish tone/outlook, but delivers the goods this quarter. GOOG I’d guess doesn’t fare so well.
SNAP warned us last week. WMT warning us this week. Who’s next? Can this support at 393 hold?
Let’s look at the charts - but again - FUNDAMENTAL events are happening all week. Charts aren’t as relevant this week.
- SPY levels: 380 (major) > 385 > 390 (major) > 393 > 398 > 400 (psych) > 410 (major)
- Chart - Weekly: Neutral/Bullish - it’s still pushing on up, just don’t think it crosses cloud anytime soon.
- Chart - Daily: Neutral/Bullish. RSI has room to go up. Looks like a few more days of consolidatin/up then it’s coming back down.
- Chart - 4h: Neutral- almost hit overbought today, but eased up - if Daily chart plays out, we’ll se overbought again
- Chart - 1h: Neutral
- Chart - 30m: Neutral/Bullish - has room to go if there’s fundamentals pushing it
All the technicals say it’s just waiting on more news to give it a direction. Mixed so far, hence the consolidation pattern.
Reminder: FOMC is on Wednesday at 2pm & 2:30pm speech. ⚠️

Scenario 1: If we open below 395, puts to 393/390. It could go lower if 10am report is bad bad. Careful of afternoon rally for tech.
Scenario 2: If we open above 397, calls to 400. Pullback to 395/397 then high of day close on tech enthusiasm.
I am unlikely to trade on Tuesday, but as you can guess, I lean Scenario 1. Good luck out there (and don’t hold overnight, you degens)

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Maverick 22:48 PM - Jul 24 2022

Week Ahead: July 25, 2022 - SPY 380/410; Stock Market Super Bowl Week; let’s do this! 🍿

Economic Calendar: https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar | https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1551271851145531394/photo/1

Monday: Nothing.
Tuesday: Consumer Confidence Index & New Home Sales @ 10am
Wednesday: FOMC Rate Hike @ 2pm; JPow takes the mic @ 2:30pm ⚠️
Thursday: Normal stuff + GDP @ 0830
Friday: Personal Income & Spending @ 0830

Earnings: https://www.investing.com/earnings-calendar/

Monday: Nothing interesting.
Tuesday: Major Dow components PM, MSFT, GOOG, V in AH
Wednesday: Smaller Dow components in PM, META & QCOM in AH
Thursday: Dow components in PM (picking up a theme here..), AAPL, AMZN, INTC in AH ⚠️
Friday: Oil squad reports in premarket (XOM, CVX, etc)

Thoughts - General:

TLDR: I think we end red on the week, mostly on the back of weak earnings reports/guidance.
US Earnings season shifts into high gear this week and will be the key driver (more so than FOMC, in my opinion)
Bad news is good news, good news is bad news. This week will be full of that.
It will be full of big algo dumps on data/news releases. Read what was actually written/said. Sometimes it’s a buying opportunity, sometimes you need to hold the line, others it’s just bad and you’ve got to cut it. Just read it yourself before reacting - don’t rely on a single candle’s price action to do your homework.
Monday: If you didn’t get your rest over the weekend, take Monday as a breather before the insanity starts. I don’t expect much of anything except chop.
Tuesday: Consumer Confidence pace of drop should be slowing - but not improving overall. US consumers are running up debt and down savings - which will show up - eventually - in earnings reports. New Home Sales print won’t be good. Big names reporting earnings today, won’t speculate, I’m awful at ER.
Wednesday: After morning earnings, it’ll be calm until the FOMC storm at 2pm. Then JPow takes the mic and anything goes. My take? I don’t expect much on the 2pm release, it’s going to be 0.75% (though I wish it was 1%) so that’s pretty well baked in. The Q&A session can put big candles on the charts, though, and that will be the highlight. Key here is what he hints about September FOMC. I’d expect this to be a green day overall. META is likely to Zuck us again though - so no holding overnight.
Thursday: We’ll get processing of whatever JPow said (there’s always a delay, it seems). Then we’ve got AAPL & AMZN in the evening. Afterhours/futures will soak up most of that fun, so Friday open won’t be much fun.
Friday: Oil earnings & Personal Income/Spending data premarket. This latter report could take some of the air out of any strong news from AAPL/AMZN, but not all of it. Let’s look at this when we get there.
I don’t think it’s any surprise that there are going to be some poor earnings and guidance. It remains to be seen who the market will shrug it off for and who it will punish.
It should go without saying - there’s not a night on the calendar this week you should consider holding overnight. Close the hell out. Please. 😅
IF we end the week very red, this sets us up for Hot Girl Summer Rally - that’s coming.
IF we end the week green, then Hot Girl Summary Rally has started.
To be fair, the charts are hard to call and there’s a LOT of new fundamental information coming this week, so I admit I’m unclear / not confident - and actually won’t be trading too much due to that.

Thoughts - Technical:

Charts. This isn’t really the week to rely on technicals because of all the FUNDAMENTAL events happening (that can smack the hell out of technicals)…..but let’s update them anyways.
SPY levels: 380 (major) > 385 > 390 (major) > 393 > 398 > 400 (psych) > 410 (major)
Chart - Weekly: Neutral/Bullish - it’s still pushing on up, 410 would be a real break. This is the week, if so.
Chart - Daily: Neutral.
Chart - 4h: Neutral / Lean Bearish
Chart - 1h: Neutral / Lean Bearish
Chart - 30m: Neutral / Lean Bearish

Trading Plan (Monday):

Scenario 1: If we open below 395, puts to 393/390. Tough trade.
Scenario 2: If we open above 397, calls to 400. Another tough trade.
As noted earlier, I expect chop on Monday. There may be no trade worth bothering with unless a company reports early warning or an international event kicks off.

SPY, weekly - note RSI

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Maverick 00:00 AM - Jul 22 2022

Market Day Ahead - July 22, 2022 - SPY - 390/400 range again; DXY took us on a ride Thursday; Friday look for QQQ weakness for puts entry.

SPY traded 392 - 399
ECB came in with 0.50 rate hike as expected (by some). This dropped the DXY as expected which spiked SPY. All right at 0830.
Then Lagarde started talking at 0845. In JPow-fashion, it all suddenly went the other way. She didn’t sound good nor was what she saying very good. The market reacted incredibly fast. The DXY spiked all the way back to where it was - and then some! Amazing, but based on what I read/heard, it sounds right.
THen DXY just grinded on its sweet spot of 107 for most of the day; until 2pm where it dropped (not sure cause on this yet) and the SPY/market ripped up to 399 where it closed.
So to quote myself “I think the primary mover on Thursday will be ECB hike + DXY. DXY down, equities up.”
That was about all there was, then SNAP got its wrecking ball filter out
Pull up that in afterhours for a big oooof moment. Missed on everything, provided no forecast, is doing a stock buyback now? Complete mess.

SPY Trading Plans (Friday)

Reports: Nothing interesting.
Earnings: AXP, VZ, TWTR (premarket)
SNAP is tip of the spear of what’s coming for other non-mega tech. I’d expect to see more big dips for the smaller/weaker companies in this earnings season. Mega caps will take more time, but their day is coming.
Friday looks like a slightly red day, probably quite grindy. TWTR in premarket isn’t going to help what SNAP started in afterhours.
Let’s look at the charts ….
SPY levels: 380 (major) > 385 > 390 (major) > 393 > 398 > 400 (psych) > 410 (major)
Chart - Weekly: Neutral/Bullish - it’s still pushing on up, just don’t think it crosses cloud anytime soon.
Chart - Daily: Bullish. Found direction. Lots of room on RSI/MACD to keep going to 410.
Chart - 4h: Neutral - juuuust shy of overbought.
Chart - 1h: Bearish - same.
Chart - 30m: Bearish - same.
Keep your eyes on the DXY - again - on Friday - it’s moving quite a lot at the moment between 106/108. Every little movement by it whipsaws the QQQ around.
Reminder: Super Bowl of earnings season + FOMC is next week, buckle up. ⚠️

Scenario 1: If we open at/above 400, look to enter puts for an overbought pullback for 3-4 points.
Scenario 2: If we open anywhere between 392-397, I’ll be on sidelines. I’d enter calls at 390.
Friday is tough to call right now. There’s conflicting indicators all over the place. If I do anything, it’ll be small size.

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Maverick 02:05 AM - Jul 21 2022

Market Day Ahead - July 21, 2022 - SPY - 390/400 range; ECB rate hike + DXY will move the dial.

SPY traded 391 - 396
🏆Scenario 1 was the winner, or close enough: “If we [open] at/below 395, calls to 398/400 (max). Then it’s time to find a puts entry.”
Sadly, I didn’t play it, didn’t believe it was correct. Had two bad entries in puts and only made it out with a profit because GOOG gave me a gift around noon (pausing some hiring). Had I listened to Scenario 1, I would have been up 3x what I was. Grrr…
VIX was down, but DXY started climbing up off that 106.40 bottom today. It closed around 107.. This is the one to watch for right now (esp tomorrow)
The market otherwise grinded sideways all day in a tight range (options crusher)
TSLA reported afterhours. Beat on profit, light on revenue. Stock was up +10 in the end. I’d say it’s just showing some cracks….which they all are.

SPY Trading Plans (Thursday)

Reports: ECB (European Central Bank) meeting (for rate hike); Lagarde speaks @ 0845. Normal Thursday US data at 0830.
Earnings: Numerous industrials/Dow in premarket
I expect the ECB to announce a 0.50% rate hike. This will move the DXY down (106 again?) and equities up, if so.
Let’s look at the charts for tomorrow
SPY levels: 380 (major) > 385 > 390 (major) > 393 > 398 > 400 (psych) > 410 (major)
Chart - Weekly: Neutral/Bullish - it’s actually breaking up, though still weeks before a cross up. I remain skeptical, but Hot Girl Summer is looking likely.
Chart - Daily: Bullish. Found direction. Lots of room on RSI/MACD to keep going.
Chart - 4h: Neutral - getting toppy.
Chart - 1h: Bearish - just got out of overbought today.
Chart - 30m: Same
“Without a fresh fundamental event, I think we’re coming down before Friday close, well under 395.” (Yesterday) OK, we got that with the 391 print today, that got us out of overbought territory. I think there’s more to go in the before Friday looking at 30m/1h charts.
I think the primary mover on Thursday will be ECB hike + DXY. DXY down, equities up. The majority of the move will likely be done in futures/premarket, so be careful about jumping on a rally late.
The best thing that could happen (for bulls) is a pullback soon - Friday/Monday. If we're going into Big Big Tech Earnings in overbought conditions, that's not going to pan out well. Coming from a place of consolidation/neutral technicals will get it much higher and hold.

Scenario 1: If we open at/above 395, calls to 398/400 (max). Too risky beyond that.
Scenario 2: If we open below 390, I’d need to see what caused it, first - then as long as it’s purely technical, I’d be looking at calls.
Scenario 3: We open around 400 (possible if DXY drops big), then give it 30 min to top out and look for entry on puts because it’s going to pay its 30m/1h taxes at some point. I’d be looking for 3-5 points.
Just a reminder that it’s earnings season, so don’t get too stuck in a direction and keep in mind this bull is still in rage mode.

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Maverick 23:14 PM - Jul 19 2022

Market Day Ahead - July 20, 2022 - SPY - 390/400 range; earnings season rocking already; UK CPI on Wednesday.

SPY traded 385/393
Neither of my scenarios were right, so I just sat on the sidelines in awe. I also was just tired as hell today, so I wasn’t too upset. That was before the damn thing closed +10 points. Then I just had real FOMO and sadness.
To scratch my itch, I picked up NFLX (equity) at 200. I filled at 220 right after the close on the ER. That put a little pep in my step for sure!
NFLX had set such low expectations, anything better than bankruptcy was likely to pop the stock. That played out.
The news out of EU caused rate hikes there and then the DXY to dip. This only poured fuel on the bull rally.
Continued rotation out of oil/commodities - and ignoring the AAPL - speed bump and you’ve got what we saw on the QQQ/SPY today. Unfortunately, I didn’t glue all this together until this evening, hence the no trades.
SPY is almost 395 and QQQ over 300 right now in after hours

SPY Trading Plans (Wednesday)

Reports: UK CPI @ 2am EST; US Oil inventories at 10:30am EST
Earnings: Tesla AH + many more
This market is raging right now. +10 on Tuesday and futures are already up another +3.
Is this a Hot Girl Summer rally already? I was expecting one a bit later, but maybe these “not so awful” earnings are the spark it needed — though next week is ‘the’ week still.
After we get UK’s CPI data out of the way on Wednesday morning, it’s a bit easier to get a clear view. Also next week is FOMC, but I think we all know what that’s going to be at this point.
SPY levels (updated): 380 (major) > 385 > 390 (major) > 393 > 398 > 400 (psych) > 410 (major)
Chart - Weekly: Neutral/Bullish - it’s actually breaking up, though still weeks before a cross up. I remain skeptical.
Chart - Daily: Bullish. Found direction. Lots of room on RSI/MACD to keep going.
Chart - 4h: Neutral - had the big move today, approaching overbought.
Chart - 1h: Bearish - it has a little more run in it, then it’s going to be overobught.
Chart - 30m: Already overbought.
Without a fresh fundamental event, I think we’re coming down before Friday close, well under 395.

Scenario 1: If we at/below 395, calls to 398/400 (max). Then it’s time to find a puts entry.
Scenario 2: If we open below 390, careful of a bear trap. I am not sure I’d bother with it. If anything, look for strength again and entry for calls to 395.
Just a reminder that it’s earnings season, so don’t get too stuck on any direction…..

30min chart for tomorrow - overbought.

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Maverick 00:37 AM - Jul 19 2022

Chart: SPX, Monthly, 10 years

Put some fibs on it. Looks like 3250 to me, but I'm a bear.

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Maverick 00:25 AM - Jul 19 2022

Market Day Ahead - July 19, 2022 - SPY - 375/390 range; probably chop on Tuesday; International CPI in focus.

SPY traded 389/380
Scenario 1 played out well enough to get me out of my weekend calls. “Scenario 1: If we open above 387, we’re going to test 390. I don’t see us getting beyond that on Monday (30m/1hr charts) - so I’d look to exit at/before that line.”
Then AAPL came in with a buzz kill saying they were slowing hiring/spending on some business units (similar to what GOOG said last week). That kicked off a 8 point pullback. I jumped on some puts for an obvious trade, should have held them much longer. It just kept going until just before the close.
I think they just killed earnings season, but we’ll see.
That’s it. Closed out. Didn’t hold overnight into EU inflation data

SPY Trading Plans (Tuesday)

Reports: EU CPI @ 5am (Final - June). BOE (England) Bailey speaks at 1:45pm EST.
Earnings: some industrials (PM), Netflix (AH)
This week kicks off ‘real’ earnings season with some of the big tech boys reporting, “the” week is next week with the titans. I do think AAPL gave us a little preview - at least of next quarter, if nothing else.
It’s all about levels on Tuesday, unless we get another AAPL-sized surprise during market hours.
DXY going to strut itself early every day this week - keep an eye on that, will make the open challenging.
SPY levels: 373 (major) > 375 > 380 (major) > 385 > 390 (major) > 393
Chart - Weekly: Neutral/Bearish. It’s trying to cross into Bullish, but I don’t see it with my Fundamental Hat on
Chart - Daily: Neutral. Looking for a direction.
Chart - 4h: Neutral/Bearish. Winding up for a big move.
Chart - 1h: Bearish - this one got knocked back today, back to consolidation range.
Chart - 30m: Same as 1h

Scenario 1: If we at/below 380, puts to 377/375
Scenario 2: If we open above 383, calls to 385.
I’ve got tight ranges on both these because I think we’re mostly in chop on Tuesday (we certainly were on Monday until AAPL). Lean Scenario 1.
Don’t hold overnight on Tuesday. ⚠️ Way too much new data coming on Wednesday premarket.

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Maverick 23:59 PM - Jul 17 2022

Week Ahead: July 18, 2022 - SPY 380/393 this week; international economic data; US earnings

Economic Calendar: https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar | twitter.com/DeItaone/status/15...

Monday: Nothing.
Tuesday: Eurozone CPI data @ 5am EST
Wednesday: UK CPI (June) @ 2am EST; US Home Sales @ 10am
Thursday: ECB Lagarde @ 8:45am
Friday: S&P PMI Data @ 9:45am

Earnings twitter.com/DeItaone/status/15...

Monday: More banks - BAC, GS, SCHW (all PM)
Tuesday: some industrials (PM), Netflix (AH)
Wednesday: Tesla (AH)
Thursday: loads of industrials/Dow (PM)
Friday: AXP, VZ, TWTR (PM)

On Watch

International: Many reports (CPI) from Europe, elsewhere. This will mess with futures. Careful holding overnight this week. ⚠️ DXY ⚠️
NEXT WEEK: Most important earnings of the season - Tech: MSFT, META, QCOM, AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, etc3
REMINDER: FOMC is July 27 (0.75-1.00 rate hike…)

Thoughts:

It’s an almost silent week on US economic data. Fed Speakers are in quiet period, as well.
It’s an active week on International economic data, though. I’m saying it again - don’t hold overnight. Futures will wreck your shit before you have a chance to react.
DXY will be on the move this week - and we know what that can do…
US Earnings season shifts up a gear this week and will be the star of the show for the next 10 trading days.
I don’t think it’s any surprise that there are going to be some poor earnings and guidance. It remains to be seen who the market will shrug it off for and who it will punish.
I don’t see much else to talk about here. We’re really winding up for a key earnings season + FOMC. So let’s get to the charts.
SPY levels: 373 > 375 > 380 > 385 > 390 > 393 > 398
Chart - Weekly: Neutral. It’s trying to turn into Bullish. I don’t see it with my Fundamental Hat on, though.
Chart - Daily: Bullish. RSI turning up, clouds crossed
Chart - 4h: Neutral. Winding up for a big move.
Chart - 1h: Bullish - can go a bit more to 390 or so, but then it will be overbought.
Chart - 30m: Neutral - it’s right at the top of the range on RSI - it’s going to pullback soon.
The charts are pointing higher over the medium-term. Maybe a very short-term pullback. My bearish view doesn’t like this, but I’ll go along. My only concern is a bull trap being set for earnings season.
One last time - don’t hold overnight or into PM/AH earnings. Unless you just need to scratch your gambling itch.

Trading Plan (Monday):

Scenario 1: If we open above 387, we’re going to test 390. I don’t see us getting beyond that on Monday (30m/1hr charts) - so I’d look to exit at/before that line.
Scenario 2: If we open below 385, I’d probably just sit tight and do nothing. It’s probably going to consolidate all day, with a lean towards upside. (There’s a lot of bullish sentiment that kicked off on Thursday.
I’ve got some SPX I held over weekend (bought right at the close), would like to exit those at the open. If futures hold (+0.41% right now), that’s happening.
Scenario 1 looks most likely to me for Monday.

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Maverick 01:51 AM - Jul 15 2022

Market Day Ahead - July 15, 2022 - SPY - 373/390 still; wild ride Thursday w/tech rotation; low volume Friday up for grabs by bulls or bears.

SPY traded 371 - 379
🏆 “Scenario 1: If we open below 377, I’ll look to buy puts down to 375/373. At 373, I’d buy calls.”
We got the dip I was expecting overnight (though I didn’t hold puts overnight…grrr) after the CPI data spread around. Then we got the bounce. It wasn’t at 373, but at 371. 373 tried its best to hold, but there was a lot of selling pressure at the open.
Once that cleared out, it ripped up quick to 376; back down to 373 again - held that time - and then off we went to 378. Under 373 we had gotten into very oversold 30m/1h territory. A bounce was going to happen.
373 remains one hell of a level
Financials got slammed on JPM weak earnings
That triggered a rotation out of Financials and into Tech - by the looks of it. QQQ closed green against all the red on Dow/Energy/Financials.
DXY breached 109 this morning. I was expecting 110 by end of summer, not….this month.
Waller at 11am all but confirmed 0.75 end of month and 1.00 is on the table. The odds are going up every day.

SPY Trading Plans (Friday)

Reports: Retail sales & others @ 0830; Bostic @ 0845; UMich Consumer Sentiment @ 1000
Earnings: More Financial sector folks - Blackrock, Schwab, Citigroup, etc
NOTE: Next week kicks off ‘real’ earnings season with some of the big tech boys reporting
There’s a lot of data coming out from 0830-1000. While it’s not the most market moving, it can move it on Friday. It should be a low volume Friday after the first 30 min, so that’s normally one for the bulls - if they show up.
Not much else really to think about. Just stick to the chart levels and be mindful of next week is land mines all week with earnings from all industries starting.
SPY levels: 373 (major) > 375 > 380 (major) > 385 > 390 (major) > 393
Chart - Weekly: Bearish (Long-term)
Chart - Daily: Confusing still, but lean bullish
Chart - 4h: Neutral
Chart - 1h: Bearish
Chart - 30m: Bearish

Scenario 1: If we at/below 380, try to give it until 10am so all the data is out - then if we’re still around 380, puts to 377.
Scenario 2: If we open above 380, give it until 10am still, but look to exit before 385.
Scenario 3: If we open below 377, puts to 373. I wouldn’t switch to calls at 373 this time, though.
I’m leaning bearish for Friday, but mindful of Low Volume Friday for the bulls to run….

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Maverick 00:04 AM - Jul 14 2022

Market Day Ahead - July 14, 2022 - SPY - 373/390 still; processing CPI data; inching further into earnings season.

SPY traded 374.66 - 382. Ended the day @ 378.83 which was only -2.00 / -0.53%
On the CPI data release at 0830, the SPY dropped over 10 points in a single candle from 386 to ~373
That was awesome.
It was a hot headline and hot core. Nothing else to say there.
It looked like a hard algo sell off on the news, then we rallied impressively to 382. We spent most of the day chop boxing around 380 (not a surprise).
It’s quite impressive that with that reading, it basically held 380
While my scenarios didn’t play out just right, I did manage to mix them together - bought calls shortly after the open, didn’t hold them long at all; then puts in the afternoon. Held nothing overnight. Needed to reset my bearings.
Fed Bostic rattled the market around 2pm with his note that 100bps isn’t out of the question. Fully expected these whispers to start (look back on last few updates here)
That was about it. All the fun was 0830 - 11am.

SPY Trading Plans (Thursday)

Reports: Jobless Claims @ 0830; Fed Waller @ 11am
Earnings: JPM & MS (Financials) premarket
I don’t think we’re going to see much market-moving news on Thursday
We’re going to see the market participants digesting the CPI and deciding what to do with that hot reading
The Fed is absolutely going to do 0.75% and I lean just a little more to 1%, but I still don’t see it happening
By the next FOMC (after July), we may actually see an impact of the rate hikes and that will set the market up for a rally - but that’s months away. I remain bearish overall for now, but respecting the levels.
Futures are interesting at the moment. SPY was 376 at the 8pm close. Right when that closed, it turned and now we’re almost at 379. What was that?
SPY levels: 373 (major) > 375 > 380 (major) > 385 > 390 (major) > 393
Chart - Weekly: Bearish (Long-term)
Chart - Daily: Confusing
Chart - 4h: Bearish
Chart - 1h: Bearish - it hit oversold today, bounced, and it’s pointed down again
Chart - 30m: Same as 1h

Scenario 1: If we open below 377, I’ll look to buy puts down to 375/373. At 373, I’d buy calls.
Scenario 2: If we open above 380, I’ll look to buy calls to 385.
I’m not feeling either scenario right now, but Scenario 1 is my first choice.

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Maverick 01:26 AM - Jul 13 2022

Market Day Ahead - July 13, 2022 - SPY - 373/390; CPI day; lots of thoughts; brace for big volatility.

SPY traded 386/379
Scenario 1 - and only one I wanted to play - played out damn near perfectly: “Scenario 1: It opens wherever, no other major news, chop until 2pm. At 2pm, as long as we’re around 385 or below 380 already, I’ll play puts and close by end of day - no way am I holding overnight into CPI on Wednesday.”
At 2pm, it was just under 385. Started falling and drilled all the way to 379 (more than I expected) by the close, then bounced two points to close at 381.
Only problem was I had other obligations at this time, so I wasn’t able to play it. It was satisfying, either way.
Oil took a walloping today -8% or so on “recession fears” — but Samosa there’s more to the story than that and we’ll learn more after CPI data drops.
That was about it. Calm before the storm tomorrow.

SPY Trading Plans (Wednesday)

Reports: CPI @ 0830 - this is, without question, event of the month so far. Get ready.
Earnings: Delta (premarket)
What else is there to do except speculate on the CPI?
I think we’ll get hottest CPI headline/overall number yet - if not 9% then very close.
CPI Core - and there is where the focus needs to be because it’s what the Fed uses - may show some cooling. This value excludes food and energy (which is silly as hell).
We could have an immediate push down on a hot headline number, but then a bounce on a cooling Core.
If both come in hot, then see you at 373 (or lower).
If core comes in cool, I think we’ll see 375 in premarket and then a bounce back over 383 (at least, 390 comes in view)
There’s some merit to Samosa’s argument that if Core is cooling, then they’ll push hard on the Headline saying we’re topped out “but look at oil! it’s down huge from June highs” - to try to make this entire thing bullish.
If they are successful or the data gives any reason to believe inflation top is in (I don’t think it is), there’s also tons of cash sitting on the sidelines right now in fear of recession+inflation raging. They just need a decent reason to jump back in - it will be a tidal wave when it happens.
…. but then we have earnings season coming in starting this week. So much to consider. Buckle up for volatility.
DXY, VIX, TNX will all be on the move as well, so options are going to be very expensive at the open. Resist temptation, IMO. Bull or bear trap will be set.
SPY levels: 373 (major) > 375 > 380 (major) > 385 > 390 (major) > 393
Chart - Weekly: Bearish (Long-term)
Chart - Daily: Bearish, but a confusing cloud crossing. On watch
Chart - 4h: Bearish
Chart - 1h: Neutral - nearing oversold.
Chart - 30m: Neutral - touched oversold today.

Consider Samosa’s scenarios for Wednesday - he’s deep in this matrix on this event - https://stonks.chat/group/9/posts/532
Scenario 1: Headline CPI hot + cooling Core - letting it open and get a few candles out of the way, then looking to buy end of July CALLS for a 5 point SPY flip by EOD.
Scenario 2: Headline CPI hot + hot Core - buying PUTS and will close them by EOD.
Scenario 3: Headline CPI cooling + cooling core - buying CALLS at the open and looking for 5 point SPY jump by EOD (it’ll already be up a hell of a lot by the open)
Scenario 1 is what I think is most likely. It’ll also include a big bear trap.
Let’s make some money and have some fun.

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Maverick 00:15 AM - Jul 12 2022

Market Day Ahead - July 12, 2022 - SPY - 375/385; CPI de-risking likely; have a long breakfast, eyes on afternoon action.

SPY traded in a narrow range of 383.50 to 386.87
It started coming down in futures on Sunday night and that stuck all the way to the open.
I exited right at the open, just thrilled I didn’t get my butt kicked from that overnight put I held.
Then it just smacked right to 384 and traded there for a while and then moved up to almost 387 in a short period of time, only come come all the way back down to 384 and close there.
384 was its happy place today and it was the ole chop box - which I avoided.
DXY was running the show today. It put on a new high above 108 (I expected it this week, but not right out of the gate today). 110 on the way.
I didn’t see much of anything else happening - though Sunday preview didn’t have anything for Monday. Just news about folks worried about CPI and earnings (well, yeah…)

SPY Trading Plans (Tuesday)

Earnings: Pepsi in premarket.
Reports: Nothing.
Wherever it opens, I’m only expecting 2-3 points of chop on Tuesday. Until end of day. If the CPI report leaks or there’s just otherwise de-risking - we’ll see a sharp move at some point. 2pm? 3pm?
DXY - I don’t expect this to calm down. It’s marching to 110 - this month?
SPY levels: 373 (major) > 375 > 380 (major) > 385 > 390 (major) > 393
Chart - Weekly: Bearish (Long-term)
Chart - Daily: Bearish, but a confusing cloud crossing. On watch.
Chart - 4h: Bearish - RSI turned down today and MACD heading down
Chart - 1h: Neutral - so chop.
Chart - 30m: Neutral.

Scenario 1: It opens wherever, no other major news, chop until 2pm. At 2pm, as long as we’re around 385 or below 380 already, I’ll play puts and close by end of day - no way am I holding overnight into CPI on Wednesday.
Scenario 2: CPI data leaks (didn’t it last time?), it’s cool, and we see it on the chart (+2-3 in a few minutes). We’ll test 390 again.
Scenario 1 is only one I’m willing to play on Tuesday, may not even do anything. Scenario 2 seems unlikely.

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Maverick 23:02 PM - Jul 10 2022

Week Ahead: July 11, 2022 - SPY 380/393 this week; CPI; ramp up week for earnings/data in July.

Economic Calendar: https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar | https://twitter.com/DeItaone/status/1545757452112650248/photo/1

Monday: Nothing.
Tuesday: Nothing.
Wednesday: CPI @ 0830am EST; data release of the week.
Thursday: PPI at 0830am; China GDP @ 10pm
Friday: UoMich Sentiment @ 10am

On Watch

International: Unrest in Sri Lanka, China ( ZHENGZHOU ), and of course Russia/Ukraine
International: Inflation reports on Wednesday from several countries
Earnings season kicking off with Pepsi on Tuesday PM, Delta Wednesday PM, TSM (Semis) on Thursday PM
REMINDER: FOMC is July 27

Thoughts:

There’s quite a lot going on for rest of July. This week feels like a ramp up week of data/reports/moves.
CPI is on Wednesday - I, like most others, expect it to continue to tick up (8.8% YoY and 1.1% MoM are expectations - though it’s much higher). This will cement whatever the Fed is leaning towards.
At this stage, I expect 0.75% for July 27. I don’t see how they can do any less. There’s even a chance for 100bps, though unlikely.
Earnings kick off - as I said, ramp up week, but it’s some old line S&P500 companies, so they’re going to set the pace for the others. I think we’re going to see lots of revised guidance and lower ends mentioned.
With inflation so hot (still), upcoming rate hikes (0.75% almost guaranteed), and just international chaos going on — why aren’t we at SPY 350? Well…
Despite the bad news, there is some good news: oil prices are dropping, jobs are still hot hot, unemployment low, some sectors are the economy are at pre-COVID levels, the Fed is restoring some credibility - finally - by raising rates at a sensible speed, and the US Dollar is strong as hell.
It’s not all about the Fed, even though much of the focus is rightly there.
That said, I think this week or two of optimism we had is just a step on the way down and the bear market will continue as earnings come out.
SPY levels: 375 > 380 > 385 > 390 > 393 > 398
Chart - Weekly: Bearish (though it’s trying to turn up - don’t see it happening long-term)
Chart - Daily: Bullish. RSI turning up, clouds crossed (as expected in last week’s Week Ahead)
Chart - 4h: Neutral. This one could go either way from here.
Chart - 1h: Bearish. RSI and MACD both say it’s coming down to 375?
Chart - 30m: Bearish. Same, downward trend started after slapping overbought on RSI.

Trading Plan (Monday):

Scenario 1: If we open at 385 or below, look for a 380 test on Monday. I wouldn’t expect that to break. There’s still plenty of bullish sentiment and room on the chart right now.
Scenario 2: If we open at 387 or higher, you already know - we’re testing 390. After that, I’ve got lines at 393 and 398.
I think Scenario 1 is most likely. Based on futures, we’re looking red, but I don’t expect it to be brutal (though my overnight puts would be happy). There’s no known news coming out on Monday or Tuesday. Heading into Wednesday, however, there’s much to consider. We’ll evaluate it then.

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Maverick 21:44 PM - Jul 07 2022

Market Day Ahead - July 8, 2022 - SPY - 380/395 rangel; payrolls will most exciting event of week; eyes on puts at 395.

SPY was in an easy breezy range of 383/390.
🏆”Scenario 2: We open at/around 384/385, strong tailwinds, maybe DXY heading down, we’re on the way to 390.” Which was immediately apparent at the open, but I barely traded it. Silly.
I was profitable for the day, but I was in the shallow end of the wave pool.
Nothing really happened today. The bullish strength just pushed on.

SPY Trading Plans (Friday)

Reports: Non-farm payrolls @ 0830. Traders are putting more focus on this than the FOMC minutes.
It will be purely about non-farm payrolls and that report’s impact on Fed hawkishness. And our normal lines. There’s nothing else pushing the market around right now.
DXY - the big elephant in the room - showed signs of taking a breather today at/under 107 - that’s good news for the bulls. I don’t think DXY is done though. 110 is coming.
SPY levels: 375 > 380 > 385 > 390 > 395
Chart - Weekly: Bearish - but it’s trying to break the trend - doubt it happens now.
Chart - Daily: Bullish on RSI, but those clouds are getting very close - may cross. On watch.
Chart - 4h: Bullish
Chart - 1h: Just shy of overbought - still jut a littttle room to go (395?)
Chart - 30m: Hit overbought again. This is looking spicy / bull trap.

Repeat of yesterday: I don’t feel strongly about anything. Fundamentals all say we’re going to hell. Technicals say we’ve still got some gas in the tank for a rally to 390/395. Be disciplined and nimble, we may be at the end of a bull trap.
We’re going to have movement after the data drops, so…
Scenario 1: We open up over 390, it’s looking at 392 and maybe 395 - but that’s it. I’d take puts out at 393/395 and hold over weekend.
Scenario 2: We open under 385, it stair steps down to 380 - that will probably hold for the day. I’d just observe. This cowboy isn’t messing with 380.
Good luck on Friday and have a great weekend! See you on Sunday.

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Maverick 23:05 PM - Jul 06 2022

Market Day Ahead - July 7, 2022 - SPY - 380/390 range still; quiet Thursday; be disciplined with your lines.

SPY range was 380-386
I mean, come on, pure gold! “Scenario 1: We open at/around 382, pulls back to 380, support holds, knock around 380-383, close at 385 on “expected” FOMC results.”
Only thing that was off was the close because of that wild drop at the end - Biden?
Unfortunately, I didn’t have any time to trade today, so left it all on the table.
FOMC minutes revealed nothing new - expected.

SPY Trading Plans (Thursday)

Reports: Normal Thursday boring stuff at 0830am; Bullard at 1pm.
There’s really not much to talk about here.
DXY has ruled the roost the last two days - it’s movement is critical (inverse - normally - of SPY/QQQ). Currently 107. Could get to 110 (lots of damage along the way, if so)
SPY levels: 373 > 375 > 380 > 385 > 390 > 395
Chart - Weekly: Bearish (no end in sight long-term)
Chart - Daily: Bullish. RSI turning up, clouds about to cross.
Chart - 4h: Bullish
Chart - 1h: Just shy of oversold - still room to go - but I’d call this neutral.
Chart - 30m: Hit oversold today - may have been the 3:45pm drop trigger.

I don’t feel strongly about anything. Fundamentals all say we’re going to hell. Technicals say we’ve still got some gas in the tank for a rally to 390/395. Be disciplined, don’t force anything on Thursday.
Scenario 1: We open at/around 384, maybe tests 385, can’t hold it - we slow bleed back to 380.
Scenario 2: We open at/around 384/385, strong tailwinds, maybe DXY heading down, we’re on the way to 390.
I lean towards Scenario 1 for Thursday.

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Maverick 00:19 AM - Jul 06 2022

Market Day Ahead - July 6, 2022 - SPY - 380/390 range; FOMC minutes on Wed

SPY traded in a nice range: 373 to 382
Both my scenarios were incorrect at the open, so I did nothing.
I rode my weekend calls down to a nasty (but unrealized) loss, then averaged down around 373 test as a hail mary. Somehow…this worked. I closed out with a small profit around 2:30pm.
Went right back into the fire at 3pm because it was so damn strong and that gave me a tidy profit for the day when I closed out near the bell. I hung my spurs up after that. Held nothing overnight.
Around 3am EST, the DXY smacked the market down around 8 points - especially hitting commodities and financials - and held that all the way to the open. I didn’t see that one coming today. EUR hit a 20 year low against the USD. Pretty amazing, really.
It was pretty quiet after that opening shock was absorbed. As there was no other news and our charts were pointing bullish otherwise, we just ticked up all day, led by a strong QQQ rally - pull up chart, it was impressive.