SPY - SPDR S&P 500 21:56 PM - Mar 19 2023
by: samosa

Weekly Market Preview - March 20th, 2023

FOMC Preview - 

SPY had a range of 396 to 380 with a close at 390. It was another wild week with major divergence happening from the SPY and QQQ. There are so many mixed signals right now in the market that a major in depth preview is not needed. So I am going to keep this pretty simple and give you 4 scenarios to look out for from FOMC. We all need to wait for JPow on Wednesday and see what he says at FOMC. If you must play before then, keep the plays light and fast. Scalp like your account is on the brink of death and you will be ok. We got banks blowing up and then getting rescued, tech catching a bid like its unlimited QE again, crypto ripping up like it is a legit safehaven, Gold moving like the world is about to end, and Europe looks like the most sensible central bank. It is chaos. 

Here are the 4 FOMC Scenarios I am looking for on FOMC. Shout-out to @homelessdaytrader on the Discord I am in for providing 3 of these. 

  • Option 1 Rate cut - JPow is very scared. Bullish results in stocks. QQQ up 10% in 1 day.
  • Option 2 Rate pause - JPow is scared. Bullish. QQQ up 5%.
  • Option 3 25bps hike = JPow is probably scared, but doesn't want others to know. Bearish. QQQ up 1% then reverses to go down 5%.
  • Option 4 JPow raises rates by 50 and walks up to the mic and says "LaGarde won't outdue me. We won the revolutionary war and carried Europe's ass in the World Wars. No further questions." And walks off. QQQ goes down 15% 

I would love nothing more than Option 4 to play out. 

My Prediction - 

I called out NEM as a solid play and it exploded up. I took profit on this way too early, but a nice win regardless. This week I am going to be looking at some consumer staples, possibly Pepsi, Conagra, McDonalds, or Wal-Mart. These names are slightly down but should fair well in the recession theme. I am not in a hurry to enter any of them, but I will keep an eye on them. 

I will keep my scalps small and. my stops tight heading into Wednesday's big FOMC meeting. 

Economic Data this Week (all times are EST)? - 

  • Check the full calendar here. No Fed Speakers this week. They are in a blackout period:  stonks.chat/feed/catalysts
  • Monday - EU LaGarde Speaks twice at 10am and 12pm 
  • Tuesday - US Existing Home Sales at 10am
  • Wednesday - UK Inflation Rate at 3:00am
  • Wednesday - FOMC Rate Hike and JPow Presser starting at 2pm
  • Thursday - UK Rate Hike Decision at 8:00am
  • Friday - Durable Goods at 8:30am 
  • Friday - Bullard at 9:30am

Current Positions and Plays -

  • I am holding some QQQ and AMD puts for mid April.  

SPY Technicals - 

  • SPY Technicals - The 30 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily are neutral.
  • SPY broke below the bear market trendline and the 200MA on the Daily chart.
  • SPY Fibs for Dec 2022 low to 2023 high (current rally) -  Purple fibs on the chart. 
    • 401 is the .382
    • 391 is the .618 
    • 396 is the .500
  • SPY Fibs for ATH to June 2022 low - 389 is the .236 line. 407 is the .382 line. Light green fibs on the chart. 
  • SPY Fibs for COVID low to ATH - 380 is the .382 line. 416 is the .236 line. Gold fibs on the chart. 

Screen Shot 2023-03-19 at 9.52.27 PM.png 702.37 KB

Levels I am Watching

  • $SPY  - levels 383, 385, 390 (major), 393, 396
  • $QQQ  - levels 300, 303, 306, 308, 311
  • NOTE: I have turned back into a daytrader. I love playing ES and NQ futures. 
  • This is not financial advice


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