Historic Week Ahead

• First, I am sorry for not doing a market preview on Friday. I was pretty sick and honestly just could not muster up the mental capacity to do one.
• What a week we have in the markets. FOMC, GDP, Major Tech Earnings, PCE Inflation Data, and End of the Month Balancing on Friday, 
• If you are holding anything overnight after Monday, you are either guessing or have insider information. 

What to Expect?

• Monday - Nothing major on US Economic data or Earnings front
• Tuesday
  • Premarket Earnings - UPS, Coke, GM, GE, McDonalds
  • Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST. 
  • Afterhours Earnings - Google, Microsoft, Enphase, Visa, and Chipotle
• Wednesday
  • Premarket Earnings - Shopify, Boeing, Spotify
  • FOMC Meeting Summary + Rate Hike Decision at 2pm EST. 
  • FOMC Press Conference with Jerome Powell at 2:30pm EST.
  • Afterhours Earnings - Meta, Ford, Qualcomm, Teledoc, Etsy
• Thursday
  • Premarket Earnings - Pfizer, Tilray, MasterCard
  • GDP Data Release at 8:30am EST
  • Afterhours Earnings - Apple, Amazon, Intel, Roku
• Friday
  • Premarket Earnings - Exxon, Chevron, P&G
  • PCE Inflation Data at 8:30am EST
  • Consumer Spending Data at 8:30am EST
  • Q2 Employment Cost Index at 8:30am EST

Current Positions and Plays:

• Holding all cash.

What Do I Think?

• SPY Technicals - We are neutral on the 30 min, and the 1 hour charts. The 4 hour chart is slightly above neutral.
• SPY Technicals - We are now comfortably above the big level at 380 for SPY. Next major level I have is 396.33. 

WTF is Going On?

• With all the events this week, why even trade?
  • If you are looking for a great week to take off to preserve your capital, this is the week. Don't get me wrong, I will be trading it everyday, but I am an addict. But, this is a great week to watch the market, not play the market. 
• Ok, Mr. Degen, what are you playing this week?
  • I will make sure I close out all trades by the end of each day and that I go light on any trade. There are too many events that can shift a trend in an instant. So I will play the trend for the DAY. If you are looking for a trend, it could come with the Fed announcing a 100 BPS hike, or you have to wait until Friday's PCE data. By then, you will have everything from the week.
• What would make the market go bullish this week?
  • I am looking at Google, Microsoft, and Apple to report expected earnings and guidance. I am also looking at Visa and Mastercard to provide some clarity on the consumer spending. If those all come in ok, with the Fed hiking rates by 75 BPS, that makes me slightly bullish. PCE data on Friday will be the cherry on top if it comes in at expectations. So some violent moves may happen this week, but nothing sustainable from a trend until Friday.
• What would make the market go bearish this week?
  • If the Fed goes 100 BPS hike, that is all the market needs to sell off. If they stay at 75 BPS, then you would need Apple to miss on earnings. Or if you can get any combination of 3 of these companies to miss in META, GOOGL, MSFT or AMZN. Also, if the PCE data on Friday comes in hotter than expected, the market will go down.  
• What about tricky DXY?
  • I will be watching this all week. If DXY starts to move way up, you can forget a sustainable rally in equities.
• You Keep saying DXY, What is that?
  • The DXY is the US Dollar Index. This historically has been an inverse indicator for equities and commodities. A weak dollar is good for equities. A strong dollar means a lot of things, and in this environment, it is serving as THE safe haven for all global markets. As other countries see inflation spike and their supply chains disrupted, it is further fueling the strength to the dollar as the only true stable global currency. In the long run though, this is very very bad. But we will get into that in a future post. 

THE PLAYS OF THE DAY for MONDAY for SPY:

• Scenario 1: We gap down below 393. Sit back and see if it can reclaim it, if it can't play puts to 390. 
• Scenario 2: We gap up and break over 397. I will be looking at puts on any trend reversal candle. Probably near 399. 
• Scenario 3: We open flat (+/- 2 points). I will most likely wait until 10am to make a play and see if a trend can be identified. I expect this to be the most likely scenario, and honestly Monday screams of a chop day. So the best approach will be to do nothing. 
• This is not Financial Advice

Levels I am Watching

• $SPY - levels 383 > 385 > 390 > 393 > 396 > 401 > Valhalla